Posted at 5:33 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

I’m slipping under the radar this month. We’re buying January Comex gold for delivery and removal from the Comex warehouse. We found this little tidbit out when Trader Dan told me about his November delivery, so we are taking the gold out as fast as possible. Hope this helps

CIGA JB Slear
Fort Wealth Trading Co. LLC
www.FortWealth.com
866-443-0868 ext 104

Dear JB,

"When COMETS Unite"

I have a small story for you. I used to keep fish in my office as a hobby. In the Asian tradition, having an Arawanas is very good luck. This type of fish looks like a WW2 landing craft. It has a snake like body and an landing craft mouth.

You feed Arawanas little fish. The entire procedure is rather gross, but hey, for good luck the gross might be worth it.

One day I brought home the usual little plastic bag full of wiggling Arawanas food.

These little wiggling guys actually organized and attacked the Arawanas all at once. Together they ate off his fins. Now I had a fin-less Arawanas floating helplessly upside down.

It did not take long for the Arawanas to perish for his sins against the little wiggling guys.

The name of the food that an Arawanas eats is "COMETS." I am not joking.

I was so impressed by these courageous COMETS that I let them live long and prosper in the dead arawanas’s 150 gallon tank. They had earned their good life. They eat harmless dead dried flies.

The moral of this TRUE story is that when COMETs unite they can kill anything of any size, no matter how dreadful looking it is.

For an Arawanas to be good luck, they cannot be exposed to united Comets. Comets are better luck than any Arawanas. This is certainly true for my COMETS!

The ugly Arawanas is a COMEX paper gold manipulative short seller. We are the COMETS!

Jim

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following was sent in courtesy of CIGA Carey:

Forrest Gump Explains Mortgage Backed Securities

Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates.
– Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds.
– Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates.
– These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors.
– Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime.
– Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.
– Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal.
– Mama always said: "Sniff the chocolates first Forrest".

Posted at 5:14 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

To our friends at the Comex, I say:

"Utinam barbari spatium proprium tuum invadant!" (May barbarians invade your personal space!)
–Complimentus Via CIGA Rusty Bayonetium

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The ABSOLUTE END of the hedge fund era is spelled "MADOFF."

SEC Said to Probe More Ponzi Schemes After Madoff Disclosures
By David Scheer

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S. regulators working to untangle Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme are probing other money managers suspected of using similar tactics, two people with knowledge of the inquiries said.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is pursuing at least one case in which investors may have been cheated out of as much as $1 billion, according to one person, who declined to name the manager and asked not to be identified because the probe isn’t public.

Regulators may discover additional Ponzi arrangements as declining stock markets prompt investors to withdraw their cash and they question how their money is being managed. This week, the SEC said it halted what the agency described as a $23 million scam targeting Haitian-Americans, and said the Florida- based operators had tried as recently as last month to bring in more investors.

Investigators haven’t found evidence the suspected frauds are of the same magnitude as in the Madoff case, which would be the biggest of its kind in history, the people said. In a Ponzi scheme, early investors are typically paid with money from later participants.

More…

Madoff Mess Is Nothing New
William P. Barrett, 12.18.08, 06:00 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated January 12, 2009

The scope of the unfolding Bernard L. Madoff scandal– $50 billion and counting–is breathtaking. But aside from the extra zeros, little about it is new. In fact, the ploys and plays on human nature that Madoff used to pull off his brash heist have a long, infamous history.

The Reputation Ruse
Madoff was the former chairman of Nasdaq and thus a trusted Wall Street wheel. Investors counted on his reputation, rather than on diligent inspection of his audits, to safeguard their money.

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Biggest Bums Of 2008
Robert Lenzner
12.24.08, 03:38 PM EST

It’s hard to surpass Bernie Madoff for being a bum, but several executves and highly placed officials come awfully close.

The biggest bum of 2008 (and for decades prior) is Bernard Madoff, whose knavish duplicity betrayed the trust of small and large investors across the globe. The Madoff Ponzi scheme is a criminal act that has decimated important foundations like the Picower and destroyed the wealth of widows and orphans.

Our bums list should include those conspirators in this scheme (family or otherwise), the handful of investors who claim they knew it was a scam but did not inform the government (they know who they are), the greedy fools behind the feeder funds that facilitated Bernie at his cheating (our sympathy to the family of Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, the investment manager who lost more than $1 billion with Madoff and took his own life two days before Christmas).

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L’Oreal Family Mixed In With Madoff
Javier Espinoza, 12.24.08, 10:40 AM EST

Fortune of billionaire heiress Liliane Bettencourt may have been exposed to Wall Street fraudster Bernard Madoff.

Liliane Bettencourt, the billionaire heiress to the L’Oreal cosmetics empire, may have become the latest victim of Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Bettencourt entrusted part of her $22.9 billion fortune to the alleged Wall Street fraudster through a fund managed by New York-based Access International Advisors, press reports said on Wednesday. It is the second time this month Bettencourt has hit the headlines for financial reasons, having earlier provoked ire from her daughter for offering part of her fortune to a photographer friend.

According to French market regulator Autorite des Marches Financier, a total 500.0 million euros ($699.5 million) from approximately 100 French funds were exposed to Madoff’s fraud, out of which 40.0 million euros ($55.9 million) came from private individuals.

More…

Madoff Investor Reportedly Kills Self
Andrew Farrell, 12.23.08, 04:50 PM EST

French aristocrat who managed money in New York dies, apparently by his own hand.

The fallout from Bernie Madoff’s alleged massive Ponzi scheme is far more than financial. Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, a fund manager who invested with Madoff, apparently committed suicide at his office.

De La Villehuchet, found dead this morning, was co-founder and chief executive of Access International Advisors, which had invested $1.4 billion with Madoff.

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Could SEC Have Stopped Madoff Scam In 1992?
Liz Moyer, 12.23.08, 03:22 PM EST

An investigation into a feeder fund could have led the agency toward unearthing the fraud.

In the unfolding tale of Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme, feeder firms have grabbed much of the focus.

They get their name because they marketed the funds that held the assets ultimately managed by Madoff. Lawsuits are filling the courthouses as burned investors attempt to recoup at least some of their losses from the firms. Last week New York Law School sued Ascot Partners, run by GMAC Financial Services Chairman Ezra Merkin, for losing $3 million of its money to Madoff. Other Ascot investors, including Mort Zuckerman, are expected to follow. Ascot reportedly steered $1.8 billion of client money to Madoff.

More…

Blumenthal May Investigate Charities Ripped Off By Madoff
Carrie Coolidge, 12.22.08, 06:30 PM EST

Connecticut’s attorney general is looking at whether trustees did required due diligence.

The list of victims who have fallen prey to Bernie Madoff’s alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme is growing longer by the day. Among its victims are countless nonprofit organizations, ranging from Yeshiva University and Tufts University to the North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System Foundation.

Now at least one attorney general is asking for records to determine if trustees sitting on nonprofit boards failed to perform their fiduciary responsibility to do proper due diligence.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Hey, if Enron can shred the trades why pick on goofy Madoff?

Fund Manager Ordered Not to Destroy Madoff Documents
DECEMBER 25, 2008, 11:50 A.M. ET

At a hearing Wednesday in New York state court, J. Ezra Merkin, the chairman of lender GMAC who runs funds that were invested with Bernard Madoff, was enjoined from concealing or destroying any documents related to Mr. Madoff.

Mr. Madoff was arrested for allegedly carrying out a massive fraud scheme that stretched back for decades and …

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Axiom = Keep in mind that it is impossible to have a loser without either a CASH winner or a winner in position value.

QUESTION = Where have all the Trillions gone? The world according to Tarp!

WISDOM = As Forest Gump says, "That is all I have to say about that."

Jim Rogers: $700 Billion Banking Bailout is ‘Horrible Economics’
By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Ask investing icon Jim Rogers about the $700 billion U.S. banking bailout, and he’ll tell you that it’s nothing but “horrible economics.”
And with good reason: Most of the major U.S. banks are already bankrupt.

“Without giving specific names, most of the significant American banks, the larger banks, are bankrupt, totally bankrupt,” Rogers said in a recent teleconference at the Reuters Investment Outlook 2009 Summit. “What is outrageous economically and is outrageous morally is that normally in times like this, people who are competent and who saw it coming and who kept their powder dry go and take over the assets from the incompetent. What’s happening this time is that the government is taking the assets from the competent people and giving them to the incompetent people and saying, now you can compete with the competent people. It is horrible economics.”

A long-time China bull, Rogers first made a name for himself with The Quantum Fund, a hedge fund that’s often described as the first real global investment fund, which he and partner George Soros founded in 1970. Over the next decade, Quantum gained 4,200%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed about 50%.

It was after Rogers “retired” in 1980 that the investing masses first really got to see him in action. Rogers traveled the world (several times), and penned such bestsellers as “Investment Biker” and the recently released “A Bull in China.” He also made some historic market calls: Rogers predicted China’s meteoric growth a good decade before
it became apparent to everyone else, and he subsequently foretold of the powerful updraft in global commodities prices that’s fueled a year-long bull market in the agriculture, energy and mining sectors.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

With one exception, energy, I agree with every point made. Think hyper – inflation and energy in dollars. Think Pakistan and energy. Outside of that – spot on!

Ten Major Threats Facing The Dollar in 2009
By: Eric deCarbonnel   Friday, January 02, 2009 11:12 AM

Ten major threats are facing the dollar in 2009.

1) Foreign central banks selling US assets

Most of the nations which have been financing the US’s massive current account deficits in recent years have either begun to sell their dollar reserves last year or are planning on selling them this year in order to support their currencies. These nations generally fall into three categories:

A) Oil Producing Nations

Oil producing nations have built up lavish spending habits and large dollar reserve in recent years as a result of profits from rising oil prices. Now that commodity prices have crashes, those profits are gone, and those Oil producing nations will have to bankroll their spending by selling their accumulated dollar assets. Saudi Arabia, for example, is projecting a 2009 Budget Deficit, which it intends to finance by selling off its US holdings. Russia, meanwhile, has already sold over 20% of its $598.1 billion reserves, and it can be expected to continue doing so this year.

B) Emerging markets that have been relying on capital flows to fund their trade deficits

Many emerging markets around the world have been running trade deficits in recent years financed by capital flows. The most prominent example from this group is India.

India’s strong capital flows from tourism, software services, and remittances not only financed its trade deficit, but also increased its foreign reserves to an all-time high of 316.2 billion in May of 2008. However, due to the global slowdown and selloff of emerging markets, those capital flows have now reversed. India’s central bank, for example, has been forced to sell off its US holdings to curb its currency’s decline, and its total reserves have decreased by $62.2 billion. The central bank’s dollar sales in October alone exceeded purchases by a record $18.7 billion. India now has $254 billion foreign reserves left, the majority of which will be sold this year to protect its currency.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Are the shorts listening? Will you be left behind or lose your behind?

Don’t Miss the Coming Gold Bull

With the massive monetary expansion experienced in recent months and the promise for unprecedented levels of money and credit supply increase in coming months, the United States Federal Reserve looks on paper to be sending America straight into hyperinflation. Germany’s post-World War I Weimar Republic, post-World War II Hungary, 2001 Argentina, and present day Zimbabwe are all analogous examples of massive debt monetization, which all led to hyperinflationary disaster. Never before has the entire world’s economy been linked to one nation’s, however, as is the case today with the United States.

In a case of economic mutually assured destruction, foreign creditor nations and their central banks can’t afford to spark a run on the US Dollar, because it would kill their own export-based economies, as well as devalue their debt repayments and foreign exchange reserves. But the United States has been financing consumption through debt for decades and has resorted to monetary expansion to finance its debt and deficit spending, which is only going to increase with Barack Obama’s infrastructure and social programs. The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) itself amounts to $700B, all of which will essentially be "printed." Foreign demand for US debt is all but gone, as creditor nations are now attempting to unwind their USD positions. Huge creditor nations like China and Iran were net sellers of US Treasuries in recent months, attesting to the weakening of the American debt bubble. So where’s all this excess liquidity go?

The answer is gold, and it is the only way to prevent the hyperinflationary scenarios referenced above from materializing in the United States.

The Fed has been on a money printing binge of unprecedented proportions, but has been able to thus far "trap" the excess liquidity from reaching the consumer level, which is what causes price inflation. It started a massive foreign currency sale this summer through the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) that led to a supply increase of Euros and suppression of dollar usage. It has been liquifying troubled banks by issuing them T-bills financed through monetization in exchange for toxic assets by utilizing reverse repurchase agreements. And it has used the recent deleveraging and commodity collapse (partially caused by credit defaults in many of the overleveraged institutions that were supporting the commodity bull) to supply the temporary demand for US Dollars and feeding its own foreign exchange reserves.

But the excess liquidity thus far is trapped in time-sensitive and manipulated instruments now, and without a demand for American debt, it has to go somewhere. As T-bills expire and the stock market descends further, actual currency is going to be released out of sequestration into the economy. The Fed cannot allow the market to breach below its November lows, unless it wants widespread insolvency in insurers and banks, which are legally required to halt operations in the event of insolvency. I’ve heard estimates of 7500 and 8000 in the Dow as being minimum support levels that, if broken for an extended time, would lead to economic collapse in America as financials would all go under. To prevent this and to finance Obama’s deficit spending, actual dollars will have to be injected into the system and they will be.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Law & Order – Special Victims Unit.

Paper gold has NO LIMIT, unless YOU and I limit it.

Join me in the Good Fight. Reduce the Comex warehouse holdings by 50%. Stop the daily price theft.

They did it this Africa morning again, yet they are paper tigers

More money, less Gold to push gold price to $2000
2009-01-02 10:55:00

Is more money chasing less and less gold every day? Yes, it is true. And that should be one reason why gold prices could zoom to a record $2000 levels in 2009!

According to a 2009 forecast from Mumbai-based Commtrendz Risk Management Services, all over the world broad money supplies in developed nations generally have an average growth rate of around 7% annually, while world gold supplies have hardly gone up by 1-2% over years.

In 2008, central banks around the world have acted in concert to lower interest rates to such levels that low interest rates themselves start to stimulate economies. The ECB, BOE has cut short-term interest rates by 0.75% to 2.5%, 1% to 2% respectively of late.

Japan and the US Interest rates are just about at zero. The fiscal spending programs of US could expand into multi trillions.

of dollars. The above efforts coupled with monetary stimulations in the form of direct injections into the money system, if happen to get the world out of deflationary grip could leave explosive inflationary situation on the back of high crude oil prices.

Nominal paper money increase will lead to inflationary push to whole commodities complex and crude oil should not escape from it.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember that thing called Jim’s Formula?

Cash-poor states eager for a piece of Obama plan
By BETH FOUHY

NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Barack Obama’s plan to jolt the economy by overhauling the nation’s roads, bridges and transit systems has local officials clamoring for their share despite questions as to whether the program will actually work.

"California’s fiscal house is burning down," state Treasurer Bill Lockyer declared recently after a California regulatory board halted financing for some 1,600 infrastructure projects because of the state’s nearly $15 billion deficit.

California’s woes are far from unique, as the deepening economic crisis has wreaked havoc on state budgets across the country. At least 40 states are running deficits, forcing governors to raise taxes and trim spending while postponing urgent repairs to roads, bridges, hospitals and ports.

"Because of the downturn in revenues, we’re all starting to delay construction projects that are clearly maintenance. That risks public safety," said Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley in an interview.

More…

Posted at 2:38 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,

I just watched Martin Feldstein on TV. He is head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a highly respected economist. He is worried about the politicians ignoring inflation.

He says the US economy will bottom at best in early 2010. Like many rational non political economists, he is concerned about inflation as a result of a change in the makeup of the US political structure. I concur with him completely. We will be lucky to have an economy bottoming at the end of 2009. It may not bottom until mid 2010 or later. Much depends upon when and how much liquidity returns to the banking system.

In my opinion, the only highly visible market for appreciation at this time is foreign currencies and gold. World stock markets are getting a rally which we have expected and which may continue for a time, but the only visible long term bull market is in gold and foreign currencies.

Respectfully yours,

Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Posted at 4:44 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What a disaster has befallen on the financial industry thanks to OTC Derivatives manufacturers, 158 year old Lehman and 95 year old Merrill. We are yet to witness the final chapter of this horror story which is the death of the US dollar with America’s permanent fall from grace.

Thank you to the army of geeks who still do not know what all the fuss is about, to management that counted their bonuses but knew nothing about derivatives and regulators that were not at home.

Merrill 95-Year Run Ends as Bank of America Buys Firm
By Zachary R. Mider

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co.’s 95-year run as an independent company is coming to an end as Bank of America Corp. completed its acquisition of the broker for about $33 billion in stock.

Bank of America, the biggest U.S. home lender, closed the purchase today, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said in a PRNewswire statement. Scana Corp., South Carolina’s biggest utility owner, will replace New York-based Merrill Lynch in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Merrill Lynch was founded by Charles E. Merrill in January 1914 and evolved into the world’s biggest brokerage, with an army of 17,000 financial advisers. After more than $50 billion of losses and writedowns tied to the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, Merrill agreed in September to a sale, escaping the fate of bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Bank of America, led by Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis, 61, plans to cut 30,000 to 35,000 positions from the combined companies in the next three years because of the merger and a weak U.S. economy. Merrill CEO John Thain, 53, will remain as president of investment banking, trading and brokerage.

Bank of America rose 84 cents, or 6.3 percent, to $14.08 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, valuing Merrill shares at $12.10 in the stock-for-stock exchange. That’s 88 percent less than their high of $97.53 in January 2007.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is something so obviously wrong with all this, yet the public remains quiet.

Government aid could save U.S. newspapers, spark debate
Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:50pm EST
By Robert MacMillan – Analysis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Connecticut lawmaker Frank Nicastro sees saving the local newspaper as his duty. But others think he and his colleagues are setting a worrisome precedent for government involvement in the U.S. press.

Nicastro represents Connecticut’s 79th assembly district, which includes Bristol, a city of about 61,000 people outside Hartford, the state capital. Its paper, The Bristol Press, may fold within days, along with The Herald in nearby New Britain.

That is because publisher Journal Register, in danger of being crushed under hundreds of millions of dollars of debt, says it cannot afford to keep them open anymore.

Nicastro and fellow legislators want the papers to survive, and petitioned the state government to do something about it. "The media is a vitally important part of America," he said, particularly local papers that cover news ignored by big papers and television and radio stations.

To some experts, that sounds like a bailout, a word that resurfaced this year after the U.S. government agreed to give hundreds of billions of dollars to the automobile and financial sectors.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Who dun it?

Pakistani Militants Admit Role in Siege, Official Says
By RICHARD A. OPPEL JR. and SALMAN MASOOD
Published: December 31, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistani authorities have obtained confessions from members of the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba that they were involved in the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in November that killed more than 160 people, a Pakistani official said.

The confessions are sure to put pressure on Pakistan’s leaders; senior Pakistani officials have repeatedly complained in recent weeks that India had not provided them evidence of Pakistani complicity.

American and British officials — and Indian investigators — have said for weeks that their intelligence clearly points to the involvement of Lashkar in the Mumbai attacks. That evidence has been deeply uncomfortable for Pakistan, whose premier spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, helped create, finance and train Lashkar in the 1980s to fight a proxy war against Indian forces in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir.

But now, after weeks of stonewalling, it also seems clear that Pakistan may use its investigation to make the case that the Mumbai attackers were not part of a conspiracy carried out with the spy agency, known as the ISI, but that the militants were operating on their own and outside the control of government agents.

The most talkative of the senior Lashkar leaders being interrogated is said to be Zarrar Shah, the Pakistani official said. American intelligence officials say they believe that Mr. Shah, the group’s communications chief, has served as a conduit between Lashkar and the ISI. His close ties to the agency and his admission of involvement in the attacks are sure to be unsettling for the government and its spy agency.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Happy New Year Pakistan. Obama plans a massive troop increase?

Afghanistan and Pakistan take center stage in 2009
Under Obama, the US may send 20,000 more troops and encourage talks with the Taliban in an effort to reclaim the upper hand in Afghanistan.
By Anand Gopal | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the January 2, 2009 edition

Kabul, Afghanistan – At times in 2008 Afghanistan eclipsed Iraq in levels of violence, and international attention is returning to the country for the first time since 2001. With the Obama administration planning a massive troop increase, Afghanistan and Pakistan look to be at the center of the administration’s foreign policy for 2009.

What is at stake?

In 2008, violence reached record levels across the country – there were 50 percent more insurgent attacks in the first seven months of 2008 than in the same period in 2007, according to Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief (ACBAR), a Kabul-based aid organization. Insurgents are "conservatively estimated to be active in over 35 percent of the country," says Nic Lee of the Afghan NGO Safety Office, a Kabul-based nongovernmental organization. The Taliban and its allied movements effectively control large parts to the Pashtun-dominated south and east, including many districts close to Kabul. Nearly as many international troops have been killed in Afghanistan this year as in Iraq, despite the fact that almost twice as many soldiers are deployed in Iraq.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is no moral will to face the problem and revamp the system therefore there is no possible chance of avoiding hyper-dollar-inflation. Simply NO chance!

Treasury Opens Door to Aid for Broad Array of Firms, Industries
By Rebecca Christie

Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury threw the door open to taxpayer financing for a widening array of companies and industries by drafting broad guidelines on aid to the auto industry.

The Treasury’s guidelines, published yesterday, would let officials provide funds to any company they deem important to making or financing cars. That leaves room for the government to provide money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program beyond loans already committed to General Motors Corp., GMAC LLC and Chrysler LLC.

“There are going to be other industries that are going to have just as good a case,” as the auto companies, former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We don’t know what those other industries are going to be. Where does this process stop?”

Shares of auto suppliers including American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. and Lear Corp. jumped yesterday after Treasury announced the guidelines. The Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association has been lobbying for the use of federal funds as a backstop in case parts makers can’t collect money the auto manufacturers owe them.

Analysts have speculated that companies such as GM’s bankrupt former parts unit Delphi Corp., might be eligible for assistance. The Treasury guidelines may encourage more guessing on what companies and industries are next, said Vincent Reinhart, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

More…

Posted at 4:40 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

It seems Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, and Pakistan and now Belarus have all gotten loans from the IMF. What happens when there is no money left at the IMF?

Best,
Ciga Big Tatanka

IMF agrees $2.5bn for Belarus
Belarus has secured an emergency loan of $2.5bn (£1.74bn) from the International Monetary Fund.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 8:48AM GMT 01 Jan 2009

It becomes the sixth country after Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, and Pakistan to need a rescue since the crisis began.

The ex-Soviet state – still run by strongman Alexander Lukashenko – has suffered a run on its foreign reserves as the economic downturn engulfs Eastern Europe. The country’s key exports are potash fertilizer and oil products, both hit hard by the commodity crash.

The IMF’s chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said the tough terms of the bail-out include "strict public-sector wage restraint" and cuts in state spending. Russia has pledged a further $2bn.#

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Dear CIGA BT,

The answer is quite simple. The US Fed will buy the 6 or more worthless loans and print more US dollar paper to re-paper the papered out IMF.

The Fed is the largest hedge fund in town and is loaded to the gills with worthless paper. Who knows, the Fed then issues bonds and buys more crap. The dollar has already gone wacko in tune with the Fed’s whacked out inventory, turning the dollar into a spinning wheat fly in the fall season that goes 9000 rpm in a blurred circle and dies, totally worn out by making its central bank a toxic land fill.

Even a nit-wit has to see where all this is going.

There is now no way out of the web of messes our masters have woven.

Happy (?) New Year,
Jim

Posted at 5:54 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,

2008 IS BEHIND US…MANY ARE THANKFUL

We would like to take this opportunity to wish you a very happy, healthy, prosperous New Year.

OUR OUTLOOK FOR 2009

A) The U.S. dollar will decline in 2009.  This is a lynchpin for several investments.

B) Precious metals and grain commodities have bottomed.  These are priced in dollars…as the dollar declines their prices will rise. 

The above predictions are strongly held views.  The next prediction depends upon events that are still unfolding, therefore we are waiting to establish the timing for this prediction.

C) Many stock markets will bottom in 2009, due to the fact that they have become very cheap.  We will watch them and gauge their attractiveness based upon a number of fundamental and technical variables.  We believe that when the bottoms do occur, they will be followed by rallies, which will carry many markets much higher.  We do not believe that the time has arrived for most markets, but some markets may soon be ready for purchase.  We plan to keep our readers updated on our views about the proper time to buy.

A) WHY THE U.S. DOLLAR WILL DECLINE IN 2009

We have been pointing out in our recent letters that a huge increase in the supply of U.S. bonds is necessary to finance the U.S. budget deficits, the bail out of world banking system, and president elect Obama’s plan to create jobs for three million people within two years.  If the dollar weakens as we predict, foreign currency bonds denominated in strong currencies will be good investments.

Argument 1: THE U.S. NEEDS TO ATTRACT BUYERS FOR THEIR BONDS.

To attract buyers for the huge supply of bonds, the U.S. will have to either cut the value of the dollar, or raise the interest rates the bonds pay.  Because the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department’s plan to bailout the banking system relies on low interest rates, rates will stay low.  Thus, the U.S. dollar will again be under pressure.

Argument 2: THE CHINESE ARE SENDING A STRONG SIGNAL …THEY BELIEVE THAT THE U.S. DOLLAR WILL DECLINE.

Recently, we have been hearing general disbelief in the future value of the U.S. dollar from China, the holder of the largest amount of U.S. bonds (and the expected buyer for most of the new bonds to be sold).  In recent weeks, several key Chinese officials have made negative comments about the U.S. dollar.  The first official comments were that China will not make new investments in U.S. banks, because they wanted to spend the money on growth within China.  A second senior official said that the U.S. should not get complacent, and continue to believe that dollar would stay high just because it had been rising for a few months.  The third comment was made this past week in Hong Kong’s largest newspaper, the South China Morning Post.  It was made by Chinese Central Bank governor Zhou Ziaochuan.  He said, "The U.S. dollar is unlikely to be stable next year and later…and the likelihood of the United States issuing more money in the near future adds to the depreciation risk in the U.S.-dollar-denominated assets and trade settlement."

This is typical Chinese behavior.  They repeat the message in different media through different senior officials.  China obviously believes that the recent rally in the U.S. dollar will not continue, probably because they will be buying less U.S. dollar debt.  I believe all investors should face the fact that China, who has been the largest buyer of U.S. debt, will be buying less of it in the future.  If they do buy U.S. debt, they will want a cheaper dollar before making any commitment.  This adds strength to our view that the U.S. dollar will fall in 2009.

Argument 3. RESTARTING THE ECONOMY IN THE U.S. WILL STRESS THE U.S. BUDGET FURTHER

A suggestion for President elect Obama:
If you want your program of revitalization to have quicker effects…employ tax cuts.  Cuts in withholding taxes will immediately stimulate economic growth.  Of course, tax cuts will mean more bonds will have to be floated to cover budget deficits, but many new bonds are being floated anyway.  In our opinion, tax cuts will work better.  Business will recover more quickly, and people will get more productive jobs. 

Although infrastructure projects would fill a national need, they have historically been slow to effect economic growth.  Much of Japan’s "lost decade" of stagnant economic growth (which really lasted over 13 years), has been blamed on placing too much dependence on infrastructure projects to stimulate the economy.  By our estimation, it will take at least three years to employ three million people with steady paychecks.  It will probably take one year just to identify and begin implementing the truly good projects, and to avoid the useless projects proposed by local officials.  It could take two additional years to plan and ramp up employment for those projects that are approved.  Every state, county, and city will have their own pet projects.  Each must be vetted to avoid pork barrel projects such as building golf courses, and local swimming pools, instead of roads, schools, energy infrastructure, and information superhighways.

B) PRECIOUS METALS AND GRAINS HAVE BOTTOMED IN PRICE

PRECIOUS METALS-Precious metals provide some security in periods of war, economic hardship, and financial folly.  Currently, all three are part of the landscape. 
· War:  Israel, Palestine, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, maybe Iran, and…India?
· Economic Hardship:  Currently, we are experiencing the worst economy since the Great Depression in the developed world.
· Financial Folly:  Here are a few candidates; the banking system collapse, the mortgage loan scandals, the mortgage derivatives crisis…we could go on and on.

In addition, the U.S. dollar will weaken, which raises the price of gold in U.S. dollar terms even if the gold remains constant in price against other currencies.  Gold acts as a currency.

GRAINS-The world’s growing population needs to eat, and grain stockpiles are low.  Expected global grain production will be moderate this year, and grain stockpiles will be even lower in a few months.  Grains are also priced in U.S. dollars and will benefit as the dollar falls in buying power.

C) STOCKS ARE GETTING CHEAPER ALL OVER THE GLOBE

The long bear market that global stocks have been experiencing, have made them much cheaper and more attractive for long term investment.  Based solely on current valuation, many are good values.  However, the backdrop of a weak world banking system, and a severe global economic slowdown makes judging value and timing purchases more difficult.

We must be sure that companies and countries have adequate capital and access to liquidity to continue to finance their ongoing activities.  The managements of the companies must be capable of operating in a challenging environment, and their products or services must have visible and enduring markets.  Fundamental economic variables, technical, and psychological variables will also enter into the valuation/timing question.  Some opportunities will be identified; we will wait patiently and review the evidence frequently.

In our opinion, 2009 could be regarded by history as a wonderful time to buy, certainly the psychology of fear today is the same psychology found at all major market bottoms.  We plan to continue our active portfolio management style; looking for and evaluating opportunities, investing when we find acceptable reward/risk, and managing the portfolios’ exposure.

Guild Investment Management is a service business.  We encourage our readers to contact us if you have questions about your investment portfolio, we will be happy to perform a portfolio evaluation for you at no cost.

Thanks for listening.

Monty Guild and Tony Danaher
www.GuildInvestment.com

Posted at 4:15 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Marty’s thought for 2009

"Doing more than is expected is what makes the difference between the exhilaration of achievement, and the acceptance of mediocrity."

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The "M" word has no place in the CIGA dictionary.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Compliments of CIGA Ken:

Busted and Bloated Paradigms and New Paradigms to come, thoughts from Ciga Ken Drees with certs in hand

Busted
The stock market is where you need to be for the long term.
Just use an Index Fund.
Housing always goes up.
Get as much house as you can afford.
Just put that on the Home Equity Loan.
Big gas hog vehicles.
McMansions.
Flip this house.

Bloated and Soon to Bust
Just toss it out, it’s cheaper to buy a new one.
Just get a divorce.
I can’t move back in with Mom and Dad.
I can’t move in with my kids and burden them.
I thought money markets were safe.
You can always trust cash.
At least I can use my credit card if things get bad.
Gold, what’s that?
Don’t worry, Washington will fix it.
Driving habits, eg., people driving to and from work with no riders.
High Paid athletes.
Pro Sports.
The Pro Sports revenue model itself.
Obesity everywhere.
Food TV.
I eat what I want, when I want.
If you don’t like it, just toss it.
Undecided majors in college.
College affordability/high priced schools.
Just charge it.
My job is safe.
Our country can fight a war anywhere, anytime.
Just Bail em out.
Retail Consumerism.
Vacations.

NEW Paradigms to come
Understanding money and economic basics.
You cannot trust Wall Street (well underway)
Political scrutiny from the people.
I talk with my congressman at least once a month.
Taking an interest and getting involved in Government.
Caring about your Government.
Anger/frustration about the state of the nation.
The dollar is not worth very much.
Gold is where you want to be or should have been.
Prices are going up all the time (underway)
Shortages of food, gasoline, etc.
Spend the dollar quick before the price of that item goes even higher.
I never eat fast food.
Eating out is a luxury.
Wasting food is a no-no.
Making homemade bread.
Frugal is in.
Bling is out.
Owning a home is not smart.
Renting is the way to go.
No, we don’t have cable TV.
Small Local newspapers make a comeback.
Who can afford college?
I am lucky and blessed to be employed.
Going to church/temple is good to do for many reasons.
Gardening. (well underway)
Saving money in a safe medium.
3 meals a day, snacks anytime — those were the good old days.
Save the money first, then buy it.
We cannot afford to keep troops all over the globe.
It’s hard to get a credit card.
Yes, I know my neighbors, don’t you know yours?
Able to make basic plumbing and electrical repairs.
Going to the library.
Mechanical knowledge is very handy.
At least baseball is cheap again.