Posted at 5:16 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

First Bernanke then Paulson speaks about helping mortgagees.

During all of this Nardelli of Chrysler was forced to grovel in public for the measly fee of about $14 billion.

The net result was at the end of Motors being grilled by our beloved clueless legislative, the Dow once again regurgitated.

What a difference between how Washington treats Wall Street and Main Street. Wall Street gets the silk glove treatment while Main Street gets the hob nail boot directly in the ass. Talk about irony. The blue collars are the salt of the earth and foundation of this country.

Where was Senator Shelby of the Banking Committee when the bailout of $8.5 trillion was embarked on for financial entities? Senator Shelby said screw Motors but never said screw the banks who also have a crappy business plan. You think the banks are now clear of all busted OTC derivatives? Like hell they are.

Now that this slippery road of bailouts has been taken, not helping Motors get to 2009 is going to result in millions more out of work when you deluge, not trickle, down the line to suppliers, auto retailers, used auto sales and general economic perspective.

The executives of the motor companies, according to markets, are weaklings. The legislative is clueless, Paulson is without market respect and Bernanke is simply ignored.

Not helping Motors will land Obama with a totally insolvable economic problem that will tank his Administration before it even starts.

The dollar is DEAD but simply does not know it yet.

What a mess. God help us all.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

 

 

Truth Be Known:

Hyper-inflation is a currency event – not a velocity of money or economic activity motivated occurrence.

Gold is a currency , not a commodity. Gold was a perfect currency at $248 and will be so at $1650.

UN team warns of hard landing for dollar
By Harvey Morris in New York
Financial Times, 1 Dec 2008

The current strength of the dollar is temporary and the US currency risks a hard landing in 2009, according to a team of United Nations economists who foresaw a year ago that a US downturn would bring the global economy to a near standstill.

In their annual report on the world economy published on Monday, the economists said the dollar’s sharp rebound this autumn had been driven mainly by a flight to the safety of the international reserve currency as the financial crisis spread beyond the US.

The overall trend remained a downward one, however, reflecting perceptions that the US debt position was approaching unsustainable levels. An accelerated fall of the dollar could bring new turmoil to financial markets.

"Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession," the report said.

Publication of the annual survey by the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, its trade organisation Unctad and UN regional bodies, was brought forward by a month in the light of the financial crisis. It was launched in Doha to coincide with the UN-sponsored development financing conference in the Qatari capital.

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Posted at 10:46 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

You think the bailed out financial entities are viable businesses in the face of current and future circumstances?

No pleading was required by the good ole boys at the banks and brokerage houses. They were not asked to surrender their first born.

In that sense with the number of job involved in this it is good for motors.

Standing down would be a better approach than begging.

The politicos will panic when they find out the bankruptcy papers have already been written and would have been utilized if it had been a standoff.

What is good for the financial geeks is good for lousy manager’s gander.

GM, Chrysler considering bankruptcy to get bailout report
Thu Dec 4, 2008 8:06am EST reuters

(Reuters) – General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC are considering accepting a pre-arranged bankruptcy as the last-resort price of getting a multi-billion dollar government bailout, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with internal discussions.

In response to automakers’ bailout plea, staff for three members of Congress have asked restructuring experts if a pre-arranged bankruptcy — negotiated with workers, creditors and lenders — could be used to reorganize the sector without liquidation, Bloomberg said.

General Motors and Chrysler could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters.

Industry executives and analysts say the immediate carnage from a bankruptcy of General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co or Chrysler would spread throughout an industry that is bleeding cash in a global slowdown.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Another tidbit from Alf Fields:

Commentary From Alf Fields:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $700 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

We have already blown through waves one and two. Wave three is projecting out to $3500 and wave 5 to $10,000 for an ounce of gold. This is the point. Last year we had a $400 billion deficit. Next year we will have a $2.5 trillion deficit and in the next four years a minimum of $10 trillion deficit. It is not hard now to see why the price of gold would go to $10,000 per ounce.

What this means is that the Federal government will burn the house down printing dollars which will lose value at a dizzying rate. Conveniently, this unbridled printing will allow the US government to pay all its bills domestically and to foreign holdings by simply printing away debt. This will also have a massively negative impact on all our creditor nations. I would not be surprised if they ended up in far worse shape than us.

We have seen it time after time when a big debtor runs its creditors into the ground and ends up smelling like a rose. This is most likely what will happen to the US although the citizenry will also go through some real tough times.

What to do? Find those asset classes which will hold their value during this process. It sounds ridiculous, but it is that simple and you will prosper.

Elliott Wave Gold Update 23
By Alf Field Dec 2 2008 10:39AM
http://www.kitco.com/

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The source is not exactly the Financial Times, but the idea is intriguing.

DESTRUCTIVE BET HEDGING SCHEMES CONTINUE
By emsnews

Now, everyone is screaming bloody murder and there is only one solution: arrest them all!

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Posted at 11:49 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Comex tells us gold is easily available, like rain in the summer. The US Mint tells us that real gold is scarce.

The manipulators must be taken out to the shed.

Comrades in Golden Arms, take physical delivery.

Just say NO to these demons that inhabit all our markets. It is time to discipline Sodom and Gomorrah, the COMEX.

MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE AND AMERICAN BUFFALO BULLION COIN AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS
SUBJECT: 2008 and 2009-Dated Bullion Coin Products
November 24, 2008

With the exception of the American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins, all 2008-dated bullion coins have been depleted. Weekly allocations will continue for these two products.

The final 2008 allocation for these coins will be provided on Monday, December 15, 2008.

There will be no bullion allocations during the week of December 22, 2008.

2009-dated American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins will be made available for sale via the standard allocation process on Monday, December 29, for pricing December 30 and order pick-up on Friday, January 2, 2009.

Allocations for these products will continue until the United States Mint is able to meet demand.

The quantities of blanks that we have been able to acquire from our suppliers continue to be very limited, while demand for bullion coins remains high. As a result, it is necessary for the United States Mint to delay the launch of other bullion coins until later in 2009. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed as additional information becomes available.

Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint Bullion Coin Program.

The above mentioned coins should not be confused with the American Eagle or American Buffalo collector proof and uncirculated versions sold directly on the Mint?s website. However, these coins are also quickly becoming exhausted, as is evident from the chart of gold and platinum coins listed at U.S. Mint Collector Bullion Coin Prices, Premiums and Sales Figures.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

One way or another Pakistan will light the fuse that many of our Conservative Christian friends will see as the "End of Days." Let us hope it is not. Pakistan is the fulcrum point of the next major world explosion, as was 9/11. The make believe government of Pakistan is not the miscreant in this equation.

What is to come will be well in place by January 14th, 2011.

Could India-Pakistan conflict go nuclear?
MARTIN SCHRAM

Once again, terrorists struck, slaughtering 174 people in Mumbai in a crisis that may have been malevolently designed to blast the adversarial nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan into war.

Once again, world leaders fear that another conventional war between India and Pakistan could go nuclear — even as both governments utter all the usual assurances that they can keep their nukes under control.

Once again, world leaders need to recall the frighteningly candid words of a former Pakistan Army general who explained to me years ago how in a conventional weapons clash between India and Pakistan, even a well-intentioned, highly-trained general such as he was could inadvertently start a nuclear war. And how the initial nuclear launch would not only be responded to but would instantly escalate tenfold — a catastrophe that would not only obliterate the region but would have severe global consequences

The warning spoken by retired Brig. Gen. Feroz Khan in my interview with him in 2002 reads like a warning call today. We spoke at a time when India and Pakistan seemed headed toward yet another ground war over the disputed bucolic region of Kashmir — after Pakistan-based guerrillas of Lashkar-i-Taiba attacked India’s Parliament. Now India says last month’s Mumbai murderers were trained inside Pakistan by the same militant group, which is linked to elements of Pakistan intelligence.

"Once the conventional war breaks out, the fog of war sets in," Khan said then. "And during war you have deceptions. You have misperceptions. You have communications breakdowns. Things get heated up."

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Posted at 3:18 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

If BJP takes over, I shall see you in Kwa Zulu Natal/Zanzibar. I for one do not fancy a radiation cloud drifting my way, or the detonation of suitcase nukes in London, Paris or New York, that probably have already been distributed from Pakistani Intel (ISI) to Taliban operatives. Let the rise of the BJP in India be our cue to abandon ship. It’s coming. It’s very close. Few seem to recognize it.

CIGA Pedro

World stability hangs by a thread as economies continue to unravel
The political bubble is bursting. Spreads on geo-strategic risk are now widening as dramatically as the spreads on financial risk at the onset of the credit crunch.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:15PM GMT 01 Dec 2008
(Excerpts from article)

"If the atrocity now propels the Hindu nationalist leader Narendra Modi into office at the head of a revived Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), south Asia will once again face a nuclear showdown between India and Pakistan.

Events are moving briskly in China too. Wudu was torched by rioters this month in a pitched battle with police. Violence has spread to the export hub of Guangdong as workers protest at the mass closure of toy, textile, and furniture factories."

"The global financial crisis has not bottomed yet. The impact is spreading globally and deepening," said Zhang Pin, head of the national development commission. "Excessive bankruptcies and business closures will cause massive unemployment and stir social unrest".

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Dear Pedro,

One way or another Pakistan will light the fuse that ignites the world.

Regards,
Jim

Posted at 3:17 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear Friends,

The following are all international shippers of precious metals. I hope to have answers for you soon on costs and procedures for shipping Comex bars to Zurich Airport Free Zone depository.

Do you ever get the feeling that the Comex today is giving you the High One and the Bronx cheer?

Nobody accepts that we can act as one.

* The Brink’s Company
* Loomis, Fargo & Co.
* Dunbar Armored, Inc.
* Blackwater Worldwide
* Garda Cash Logistics
* Brink’s, Incorporated
* United Armored Services
* Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A.
* Rochester Armored Car Company, Inc.

Regards,
Jim

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Good timing?

Brazil selling 100 missiles to Pakistan

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Brazil’s defense minister says his nation is selling 100 aircraft-borne missiles to Pakistan.

Brazilian officials approved the euro85 million ($107 million) sale of the missiles, which can be installed on jets and used to take out radar installations.

Brazilian news media say Brazil’s air force negotiated the sale with Pakistan’s government. The deal needed the approval of Brazil’s trade ministry, which signed off on the deal on Tuesday.

The Brazilian arms maker Mectron will make the missiles.

Brazil has been trying to bolster its defense industry, which was the largest in the developing world 20 years ago. The industry has struggled since the end of the Cold War.

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Posted at 3:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

I am a bit pressed for time today as the price action in the various commodity futures that I trade is keeping me on my toes. Some of the commodity markets are following the US equity markets higher today while some of them are not, notably gold and most of the metals. Gold in particularly is not trading “right” today. By that I mean the correlation between it and the US equity markets has been pretty close recently. When the equities are moving higher, gold has been moving higher in what I am calling the reflation trade. The opposite also has been holding true. Today, the equity markets were initially higher and yet gold still got  whacked again.

Generally, we have been seeing the Dollar and the US equity markets going in opposite directions as well. Today that changed with the Dollar moving slightly higher while the equities were also moving higher. That brought in selling into gold after the market had recovered most of its overnight losses. About 30 minutes before the close of pit session trading in New York, gold was hit once again. So too were the mining shares. The war against gold obviously continues. Interestingly enough, the equities faded off their highs just about the time gold was getting ready to close in the pit.

The volume in the gold is getting quite anemic. It looks more like a holiday trade than a normal business day trade. Spreads between bids and offers at times are as much as 7-8  points at times even in the most active month. The contraction in open interest is taking its toll on liquidity. Yesterday saw another drop of over 1900 contracts bringing the total to an almost laughable 264,796. I say laughable because who would have envisioned that during a time of such incredible financial duress, the interest in gold would be collapsing. That just goes to show the extent of the de-leveraging trade. Again, we are talking about the phony paper gold market and not the real deal.

Technically gold is treading water holding just above support near the $760 level basis February. Failure there and it will retest $740. Upside resistance is first at $780 – $785 and then at $800.

We had another 285 deliveries assigned this morning with HSBC the largest stopper followed by Bank of Nova Scotia. Fortis Clearing is providing the brunt of the selling. Total deliveries so far this month are 11,758 contracts or 1,175,800 ounces. That is a nice chunk of gold but we still need some more taken out.

Open interest in the December contract still is a bit high for this late in the contract’s life which could mean that there are more than a few players left who intend to take delivery. The total remaining as of yesterday is 2,118. That is 211,800 ounces of potential physical gold purchases. More guys still could come into that month yet if they knock prices much lower so stay tuned.

A quick comment about the price action in so many of these markets which can aptly be termed, “schizophrenic” – they have become the domain of day traders and scalpers. Drawing too much in the way of assumptions from price action in regards to the fundamentals is a waste of time. They will go in whatever direction the most money happens to get thrown at them on any given day. If the biggest order of the day is one that says in effect; “Jump off the edge of the canyon and follow me” – guess what – They all will do exactly that!

Newsletter writers in particular, who are forced to make daily recommendations to their readers are to be pitied. What they write one day, they have to take back the next only to eat those words the day after. Better to sit on the sidelines and wait and see if some semblance of sanity comes back after the new year. I have chatted with a few of my trading pals and the consensus is becoming just that. Take a long vacation and let the rest of these guys chop each other to pieces, particularly the hedgies.

Click chart to view today’s action in Gold as of 12:30pm CDT with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

December0308Gold1230pmCDT

Posted at 11:59 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold last evening was trading at $780. On the Comex it was trading at $765. That has to motivate you to fight back.

Gold moved back, influenced by the firming euro.

Gold is a currency and the Comex cannot change that, however you have the power to change the COMEX.

Respectfully yours,
Jim