Posted at 12:13 PM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Chris Martenson is futurist, economic researcher and holds a PhD in toxicology from Duke University. So, Martenson has a unique perspective about the coronavirus and what its effects will be to the global economy. Don’t believe the mainstream media. Things are not getting better, and Martenson contends, “It’s getting worse. It is a tale of two stories inside China and outside China. Inside China, we have been suspicious of their reporting, and they have been underreporting the cases at least by a factor of 10 and maybe more. This is both for infections and deaths. . . . The Chinese government would not lock down 90% of their economy just to save a couple of lives. They don’t roll that way. So, there is something there that is very worrisome to them. . . . Outside of China, we trust the numbers a lot more. . . . So, when we are looking outside of China, we are seeing the cases of the coronavirus are now increasing exponentially. It’s got a very short doubling time and a very high rate of infectivity. It’s not the flu. It’s not SARS. The mainstream media is trying to tell people there is nothing to worry about, and we don’t take that view at all. . . . Covid19, as they call it now, is a real beast.”

More…

Posted at 2:47 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Originally posted for subscribers on February 12, 2020.

Bill is interviewed re: gold and silver physical purchase/sale.

Posted at 3:37 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

And this was BEFORE the coronavirus…

Largest Shipping Decline Since 2009 and That’s Before Coronavirus
February 18, 2020

The January Cass Freight Shipping Index is more bad news for the global economy.

The Cass Freight Shipping Index is down 9.4% year-over-year, the largest decline since 2009. And this is for January, before the Coronavirus disruption.

The turn of the calendar didn’t leave the bad news in 2019, as the Cass Freight Index showed continued weakness in the U.S. freight market. Both the shipments and expenditures components of the Cass Freight Index worsened sequentially and showed decelerating y/y growth. According to the broader stock market levels, there is still optimism out there, but the freight trends have yet to turn. And the Covid-19 coronavirus case count continues to grow, creating uncertainty around containment and eventual impact on global supply chains. Some Chinese factories resumed operation this past week, but they are still not close to 100% production levels. Others have pushed re-opening back to March 1.

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Posted at 10:20 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

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www.georgesellas.com

What is it that we’re seeing here in plain sight yet obstructed by separating storylines with misdirection’s popping up everywhere? Is it possible that “Quantitative Easing” has been hidden behind the term “Repo Market” yet, ultimately benefitting the same players with this newly printed cash being used to bury the bodies, like those of Deutsche Bank and HSBC? Both of these entities are reducing employment and exiting markets after taking hard hits in their ROI’s and yet, the markets keep rising.

Deutsche Bank is quoted as saying they are shedding “… $100 billion in assets, and taking a massive $7.3 billion hit … part of a major overhaul” with the other central banker’s problem child, HSBC admitting “…Around 30% of our capital is currently allocated to businesses that are delivering returns below their cost of equity, largely in global banking and markets in Europe and the U.S.,”

     These two banks are not getting healthier at all, in fact, they seem to be dying a slow death and their declines should be hurting other major institution’s as well. The point maybe that western central bankers and friends, control (almost all) derivatives and in size. These deciders of print have the right to bail out whoever they want and when they want. They literally have a wide selection of problems to choose from when more cash is needed and yet, no one can find any report of these newly created debt instruments ever being paid off. These same Repurchasing Agreements just keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger (Just like QE … until?).  

     We in essence, have a self-assigned organization called the “International Swaps and Derivatives Association” made up of central bankers, with others, associated by trades, and agreements, created to protect and support these over-leveraged sovereign debt assets “by any means possible”. The ISDA committees are the same ones that decide when it can bail itself out, and who else survives by throwing this hot money wherever its needed. They are the “tool” that must declare a default or there is no default – no matter what occurs!

     The idea of hiding this new QE title by calling it a Repo is doing what it was intended to do, hide the events in plain sight. The expectations of QE to Infinity will proceed, as a Repurchasing Agreements of Infinite Print! That is, until something not calculated by the algos surfaces, and with consequences …

Got Silver and Gold?

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 12:04 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Telegraphing what’s to come.

The “Golden Swan”?

“Of course, dumping US Treasuries would impede China’s economic growth if dollar assets were sold and converted back into renminbi (which would appreciate). But China could diversify its reserves by converting them into another liquid asset that is less vulnerable to US primary or secondary sanctions, namely gold.

Indeed, both China and Russia have been stockpiling gold reserves (overtly and covertly), which explains the 30% spike in gold prices since early 2019.”

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One day, out of the blue, the Golden Swan will catch us all by surprise.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Dr.Doom On Gold & ‘The White Swans Of 2020’
February 19, 2020

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as “white swans.”

According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution.

But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: they are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes.

There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point – the “Minsky Moment” – when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns,” but rather the “known unknowns.”

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Guys,

This narration came from one of my good friends in radio. It’s about farmers and it needs to be shared!

Denny

So God Made A Farmer: The Mike Bloomberg Edition
February 19, 2020

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZvGsMN_FUw&feature=emb_title

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Jim/Bill,

There has been much talk about the soaring debt levels.

A look at the chart below makes one think of Zimbabwe or Weimer Germany.

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Yet a friend of mine stated that when push comes to shove, President Trump will simply fall back on his M.O. which is “Default on the debt”.  Then we’ll start anew.

I said, “think about that for a moment.  If we default who will feel the pain?  Pension funds own bonds, banks own bonds, funds own bonds, foreign corporations own bonds, Central Banks own bonds, etc.

If we default, it will waves of bankruptcies throughout the world and spiral us into a major global depression.  (The only survivors will those who own gold and silver).

Furthermore, all faith in the U.S. Dollar will be lost and hence, hyperinflation will come to be.

Hyperinflation on top of depression!  an event that will no doubt leave everyone speechless.

On another note, look at the period between 1980 and 1990 on the chart.  Those were the Reagan years of renewed prosperity.

His magic bullet was “print your way to prosperity”.  And eventually someone will have to pay.

Jimmy Carter lost the election to Reagan on 2 counts:  The Iran hostage crisis and an $800 billion debt!

yet when Reagan left office, it looks like we hit $3 trillion in debt.  And nobody cared.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang,

As we have been saying, “one man’s debt is another man’s asset”…

Bill

Jim/Bill,

Yellen says that the FED should buy stocks.

Speaking via video conference with bankers in Kansas City, Yellen said

that the Fed would take a page out of the SNB and BOJ playbook, and might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds.”

Yes, it is illegal.  But we can simply change the law overnight.

I don’t know about you, but imagine the cost of bailing out a 20,000 point drop in the Dow!

The money needing to be printed to do this is mind boggling.  (But don’t worry, not only can we default on our bonds, we can also default on our Dollar)

Yellen also believes another financial crisis will not come in our lifetimes.

File under “Famous Last Words”.

“Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”

Hey girl, take a step closer to the abyss and take a look down!

Come on now, don’t be afraid.

It will only hurt if the ledge gives way.  Which………I don’t believe it will.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yellen Says Fed Should Buy Stocks In The Next Crisis
February 18, 2020

Back in June 2017, there were several odd moment of bizarre honesty coupled with schizophrenic confusion under Janet Yellen’s Fed.

First there was San Fran Fed president John Williams, who would eventually on to become the Fed’s #2 when he took over as head of the NY Fed in 2019, who said that “there seems to be a priced-to-perfection attitude out there” and that the stock market rally “still seems to be running very much on fumes.” Williams added that “we are seeing some reach for yield, and some, maybe, excess risk-taking in the financial system with very low rates. As we move interest rates back to more-normal, I think that that will, people will pull back on that.”

Then it was then-Fed vice chairman Stan Fischer’s turn, who echoed Williams in saying that “the increase in prices of risky assets in most asset markets over the past six months points to a notable uptick in risk appetites…. Measures of earnings strength, such as the return on assets, continue to approach pre-crisis levels at most banks, although with interest rates being so low, the return on assets might be expected to have declined relative to their pre-crisis levels–and that fact is also a cause for concern.” Fischer then also said that the corporate sector is “notably leveraged”, that it would be foolish to think that all risks have been eliminated, and called for “close monitoring” of rising risk appetites.

Finally, none other than then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that some asset prices had become “somewhat rich” although like Fischer, she hedged that prices are fine… if only assumes record low rates in perpetuity: “Asset valuations are somewhat rich if you use some traditional metrics like price earnings ratios, but I wouldn’t try to comment on appropriate valuations, and those ratios ought to depend on long-term interest rates.”

More…

Jim/Bill,

A warning sign?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yes Wolfgang,

This is the “Yogi Berra chart”…looks like De va ju all over again!

Bill

Dear Chart of the Day Fan:
Here’s my chart for today. I’ll talk about it shortly after 3:30 p.m. Eastern (12:30 p.m. Pacific) on the Bloomberg Businessweek radio show. Also, I’ll present
my Stock of the Day just after 4:05 p.m. (1:05 p.m.) on the radio and later on social media. You can hear me on Bloomberg Radio or see me at Bloomberg Global News on YouTube. Earlier charts are on my Tumblr page.

Thanks for your interest. It’s appreciated.

Untitled

Shares of U.S. regional banks are suffering just as they did two decades ago, when an Internet-driven bull market ended. A comparison between the KBW Regional Banking Index of 50 lenders and the S&P 500 Index shows as much. The industry gauge’s ratio to the S&P 500 fell Tuesday to its lowest reading since September 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tuesday’s close was 39% lower than a peak in December 2016. “Regional banks not crashing on a relative basis” would be a reason to turn bullish about U.S. stocks, J.C. Parets, editor of the All Star Charts blog, wrote in a post Sunday.

Sincerely,
David Wilson

Jim/Bill,

Who would be hurt by a default on our debt?

Or, if your in the mindset of “America would NEVER do that”, then look at it another way: Who would be hurt by a normalization of interest rates?

Either way….scary shit! (excuse the language).

We are no longer approaching ground zero; we are AT ground zero.

The largest buyers, and those with the positive trade surpluses to invest, have left the game and are now sellers (Russia, China, Japan, Germany, Mexico). All that basically remains is the Fed, government funds such as pension and Social Security, US Banks, and other US entities (pension funds, institutions, insurance companies, corporations, and individuals).

Pulling a default is like holding a gun to your own foot and pulling the trigger. (I would have preferred to another body part but it would be too graphic).

All that is left is…drumroll please……….MONETIZATION.

Hell, even helicopter drops would be too slow.

You’d need a quicker and more massive means…..

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CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang is on a total roll today! I want whatever vitamins he is on…

Bill

Who Bought The $1.3 Trillion In Debt The US Government Added In 2019?
February 19, 2019

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Treasury securities are hot. The Fed backed up the truck. US banks & others bought too. But China dumped…

The US Gross National Debt spiked by $1.3 trillion over the past 12 months, to $23.3 trillion. These days, trillions fly by so fast it’s hard to see them. But these are the good times. And we don’t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn:

3

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Posted at 11:52 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

President Trump’s frustration over lack of criminal Deep State prosecutions by his DOJ bubbled out to his more than 70 million Twitter followers this week. From Comey, McCabe, the phony dossier of the Russia Hoax and FISA abuse, it was all put out for the world to see. Trump called the Mueller report a “fraudulent investigation,” and Trump also tweeted, “….badly tainted . . . . Even Mueller’s statement to Congress that he did not see me to become the FBI Director (again), has been proven false. The whole deal was a total SCAM. If I wasn’t President, I’d be suing everyone all over the place…”

If prosecutions were getting done, President Trump would not be threatening to sue, says former CIA Officer Kevin Shipp. Shipp goes on to say, “What the President is doing is tweeting and communicating with the American people because the press is going to cover it up, and the Deep State is not going to let that sort of thing out. This is the beauty of his tweets . . . . He is telling us what is really going on. . . . These prosecutors, going all the way back to Mueller . . . have engaged in prosecutorial misconduct, and nothing has been done to them. This has been allowed to go on, and Trump is basically saying the evidence and information is there that is solid enough that he could sue if he wanted to . . . . The American people need to know about it, and when the American people know about it, people get up in arms and people start taking action. . . . . We, the American people, need to hold Attorney General Barr accountable for doing his job. We are all hoping AG Barr and John Durham are going to do their jobs, but what we have seen lately is quite concerning.”

More…

Posted at 11:51 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– January 2020 CASS Freight Index Dropped by 9.4% (-9.4%) Year-to-Year
– Current, Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Increasingly Resemble the Onset of the Great Recession
– Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Are Not Consistent With a Booming Economy
– They Also Do Not Support FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
– They Are Consistent With Fourth-Quarter Contractions Seen in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales

“Flash Update No. 23”

www.shadowstats.com

Posted at 9:47 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

      Gold is in the green in the early morning with the April trade at $1,589.80, up only $3.40 after reaching $1,592.40 before “the calm” was put into place with the low at $1,581.80. Silver is up as well with the March contract at $17.845, up 11.1 cents after hitting $17.895 with the low at $17.670. The US Dollar’s rate continues to move higher with the value pegged at 99.135 up 13.2 points and right by the high at 99.160 with the low down at 99.030. Of course, all of this happened already while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Japan (or the US?) allowed the passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship to go free a day before their incubation period ended

      The Emerging Markets Currency Watch continues to show the value of currencies failing as the precious metals rise with Venezuela’s Bolivar holding Gold’s value at 15,878.13 providing the holder an additional 55.93 in Bolivar value with Silver adding another 0.749 with its price now at 178.227 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso has Gold valued at 97,767.33 it too adding more to yesterdays price to the tune of 521.24 Peso’s with Silver at 1,096.83 Peso’s popping in an additional 6.06. The Turkish Lira’s value for Gold now sits at 9,649.74 showing a 66.51 T-Lira increase in value with Silver increasing by 0.816 of a Lira with the price at 108.314.

      February Silver’s Delivery requests have stagnated with no trades or swaps done since last Thursday leaving that lonely number 1 up on the board and with no Volume. So, how come it’s taking Comex so long to settle this one lot order that’s been out there since last Thursday? Can’t be because they don’t have any Silver can it? After all, a certain element supposedly has a bunch of Silver sitting in its folds, unconfirmed by any outside auditing source and with that famous disclaimer at the bottom of the COMEX inventory count that says ““The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only” and since, June 3, 2013. Their post should also include; “this information, in no way should be used for trading purposes, it is only for entertainment.” Silver’s Overall Open Interest sits at 231,131 Obligations, virtually unchanged from yesterday even though the Commodities did trade during most of the holiday, showing how the rest of the world moves money around while our numbers are artificially “stayed in place”.

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands are also stuck at 699 fully paid for contracts with this morning’s Volume at 72 when yesterday’s “holiday” Volume was at 27, helping to proving once again the holes in the Comex accounting procedures. If all this activity is traceable within the computerized systems, the updates should show up as they occur, so why are the deliveries, swaps, buys/sells, not posted even if there was a federal holiday? Yesterday’s “Delivery” low just so happens to be same price as today at $1,579.80 with a new high at $1,588.30 as the purchasing carries on with the last trade at $1,586.10. Comex Gold’s Open Interest is also unchanged from yesterday’s numbers with the count at 687,921. At the very least, the Comex is consistent in “not reporting”. Billions of dollars trade in the precious metals with people going against the computer algos, so this updated information, inside these computer-generated trades, is imo, intentionally not being posted for a reason.

      Yesterday’s “later in the day” reports on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship was quite unsettling. The last confirmed tally before my write up brought the infected count to 355. After our post, Japan gave out another infection count totaling 542 showing the acceleration as we watched the passengers leave the petri dish. Admittedly, I do not have the knowledge to say this is right or wrong, but the infections acceleration in body count, makes me wonder wtf is going on? Within an 8-day period, we watched the infection count go from 135 to 542 more than quadrupling last week’s Monday tally. We have to allow those who have the knowledge, to make the right decisions based on what is known, so we have to trust “those on the ground” with making good decisions. Bringing back our people to be sequestered here instead of an encapsulated cruise ship, imo, may not be a good idea at all. Alas, our American brothers and sisters are home, to be cared for by our specialists. I hope these people know what they are doing, because I sure don’t understand who/what/why this was done?

     Things are changing daily, and with that, my posts are being brought into the paid for side. I hope you have gleaned value from my missives. There will be more information brought in as we move forward in the ever-changing world of precious metals and the declines in all fiat. So, keep that smile on your face and a prayer for all in the heart, and as always…

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson