Posted at 1:21 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do you remember the days when the sale of $1 billion worth of “precious paper” gold would cause a $25 or even $50 drop in gold’s price? Today they got a lousy 5 bucks for their troubles! The world she is a changin’!

Gold Tumbles Back Below $1300 As Someone Suddenly Dumps $1 Billion Of ‘Precious Paper’
March 29, 2019

As Europe closed, it seems someone decided now was a great opportunity to puke over $1 billion notional of paper gold into the futures market to send the precious metal back below the key $1300 level…

Huge volume spike…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot gold broke back below its 50DMA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted at 9:29 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More positive developments in Tanzania for ethical mining, from artisan to major.

East Africa’s First Gold Trading Hub To Fight Smuggling
March 18, 2019

Tanzania has launched an international gold trading centre in the gold-rich region of Geita.

Tanzania will thus join South Africa and Botswana, which boast a gold exchange hub and diamond bullion market respectively.

The centre, inaugurated on March 17, is among reforms introduced in the mining sector in the past three years to curb mineral smuggling.

The gold hub is meant to ease mineral trading, and ensure that businesses pay the required levies to the government.

Geita produces over 40 per cent of the gold exported from the country.

According to Geita Regional Commissioner Robert Gabriel, each of the five districts in the region will have one gold collection centre for small-scale miners, and two banks where gold trading will be taking place.

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Comex Opens, Now It’s Time To Go Back To Sleep…
March 19, 2019

Good Tuesday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is up again and hopefully it will stay that way when the Comex opens and we all go back to sleep (immediately after it opens) with the trade now at $1,308.50 (April) right beside the high of $1,308.80 with the low at $1,302.10. Silver is following with the May contract pegged at $15.41, up 8.8 cents and right beside its high at $15.42 with the low at $15.32. The Rollover in the currencies is complete with the June US Dollar trade now at 95.785, down 19.8 points and close to the low at 95.73 with the high at 95.975, of course all this was done way before the Comex Open and a hair past 5 am pst. At least in Venezuela, the currency prices remain steady (cough) with Gold’s price now at 13,068.64 Bolivar gaining 47.94 overnight with Silver pegged at 153.907, gaining only .699 Bolivar in value as we wait for the emerging currency markets volatility to infect the calm in the majors.   

      March Silver’s Deliveries are now showing a reduced count at 65 demands for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning proving a 10 count drop being delivered/settled/cleared somewhere between COMEX and the City and as we near the Brexit and Basel III date (3-29-19) that was set up a long time ago. Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained a bit more during yesterday’s nap time trading period at the Comex showing a gain of 481 Obligations making the count 187,344 Overnighters as of this morning’s report.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and a century is a very long time frame!

Buy Gold, Sell Stocks Is the ‘Trade of Century’ Says One Hedge Fund
March 19, 2019

One of last year’s best-performing hedge funds says the “trade of the century” is to buy gold and sell stocks as risk assets are due for another meltdown.

It’s only a matter of time until the bearish bet pays off big, according to Crescat Capital LLC. While the Denver-based firm has only about $50 million under management, it has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index — with its Global Macro Fund returning 41 percent last year alone. Now the investment company says it’s ready to capitalize on an end of the economic cycle as indicators warn that a recession is imminent in the coming quarters.

The consensus is pointing to a recession in 2020 or 2021, Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, said by phone. “We think it’s a lot closer than that and we have a number of macro timing indicators that we look at.”

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Posted at 1:07 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

As I alluded to in today’s writing, the “madness of crowds”. Even though not correct, they are the majority…

Realizing How Great It Is To Be Here Now!
March 18, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,  

      Gold is trading higher, at least while I’m writing with the latest price at $1,303.70, up a dollar in between a high of $1,306 and the low at $1,298. Silver is barely up as well with its trade at $15.34, adding 1.6 cents to Friday’s close and close to the high at $15.36 than the tested low at $15.22. The Currency Rollover is today, part of the Triple Witch accounting swap out we’ve been following for decades, with the US Dollar trading 20 points lower at 96.39, which is the low so far, with the high at 96.54. All this of course was done some time before 5 am pst and the Comex Open. In Venezuela, where debt is considered far more valuable than physical anything (that is until last year’s little flip) is showing Gold’s price at 13,020.70 proving a minor gain of 4.99 Bolivar, with Silvers price now at 153.208 losing .20 of a Bolivar as we hear but cannot trust anything from the news services about real news there.     

      March Silver’s Delivery Demands are showing an undelivered count at 75 requests for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. We doubt this number is correct since it was Friday’s open count and since we’ve gone thru this each Monday, we’ll wait for the Comex members to catch up with our requests, after all, we are the many against 1 or 2 Algos, too bad we can’t vote on this stuff, eh? Silver’s Overall Open Interest did drop a little on Friday before they stopped counting with the totals so far at 186,863 positions still in trade proving a loss of only 308 Overnighters as the count continues to fall in ever so slow a fashion all the while the international politicos are climaxing their dramas on how important it is for them to retain all their ill-gotten power over their voting populations.   

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Posted at 1:01 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim/Bill,

What a shit show our country has become.

The Boeing affair was all over Bloomberg Radio this morning.

“In recent years, the FAA has shifted more authority over the approval of new aircraft to the manufacturer itself, even allowing Boeing to choose many of the personnel who oversee tests and vouch for safety. Just in the past few months, Congress expanded the outsourcing arrangement even further.”

The President doesn’t rule.

Congress doesn’t rule.

The people don’t rule.

It’s the manipulators and profiteers in the financial and corporate arenas that rule.

What next?

-Big Pharma approving its own new drugs?

-Auto companies monitoring their own emission and safety standards?

-We already know precious metals, stocks, bonds, government economic statistics are all controlled and manipulated.

-Our minds have already been taken over and controlled by a soiled media.

These have become a dangerous set of precedents!

The people are being led to slaughter for the almighty “buck”.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Boeing Drops as Role in Vetting Its Own Jets Comes Under Fire
March 18, 2019

(Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. tumbled early Monday on heightened scrutiny by regulators and prosecutors over whether the approval process for the company’s 737 Max jetliner was flawed.

A person familiar with the matter on Sunday said that the U.S. Transportation Department’s Inspector General was examining the plane’s design certification before the second of two deadly crashes of the almost brand-new aircraft.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that a grand jury in Washington, D.C., on March 11 issued a subpoena to at least one person involved in the development process of the Max. And a Seattle Times investigation found that U.S. regulators delegated much of the plane’s safety assessment to Boeing and that the company in turn delivered an analysis with crucial flaws.

Boeing dropped 2.8 percent to $368.53 before the start of regular trading Monday in New York, well below any closing price since the deadly crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 on March 10. Ethiopia’s transport minister said Sunday that flight-data recorders showed “clear similarities” between the crashes of that plane and Lion Air Flight 610 last October.

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Posted at 10:16 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

We posted this article over the weekend… and they call us the crazies? Let’s look at this from a very broad standpoint because if anything displays where we are as a world, financial and otherwise is captured right here!

So, a bond offering with “the worst ever” covenants is three times oversubscribed causing a repricing with less discount and lower yield than originally offered? Is this important? Is it company or industry specific? Or, is it an illustration of something far larger and systemic? I would argue the problem is definitely systemic and certainly a symptom of “mob madness”.

Forget about company or industry specific because as it stands now, over $9 trillion worth of debt all over the world sits with negative yields! We won’t go over the topic of negative interest rates again (as we have several times in the past), because even a 6 year old understands it makes no sense and is untenable from a systemic standpoint. Suffice it to say, a snake can never eat its own tail and live to talk about it.

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Posted at 4:01 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Kevin,

The manipulators of paper gold can temporarily do anything. The operative word there in being temporarily.

The equation is gold versus run away insane debt levels, plus now we see QE in its true GLOBAL form as to INFINITY.

YOU NEED TO MAKE YOUR DECISION AND NOT OVER-INTELLECTUALIZE IT.

Do you really believe that fiat paper will maintain, and therefore store the value of what you have? Sorry, it simply will not.

As such GOLD is your savings account.

End of story!

Jim

Jim,

With this capital adjustment coming for gold on March 29, I have been wondering if we will see another April 2013 swoon or whether. as everyone is hoping. that maybe a floor will be established on the gold market. I fear the floor may be manipulated much lower on the “financial” instrument that they call gold.

What do you think?

The BIS ruling states that Central banks and commercial banks will necessarily value their “financial” and real gold at market price. Is this just a way to increase the collateral value of paper or physical gold even as market value declines?

Unless the March 29 ruling has an immediate effect on auditing of physical gold held by CB’s, I fear it is another scheme to push gold prices lower. And so far I am not hearing anything with regards to a global gold audit of CB’s. And China continues to sleep.

As Ronan Manly pointed out, the reason the Fed values its gold on its asset side at only $42 per ounce is because the gold is valued at book value by the Treasury and the Fed’s gold is actually only gold certificates valued at no more than the statutory price of their issuance in 1934 which matches the book value of the Treasury gold. Will the Treasury revalue its physical gold at FRBNY and Fort Knox? Will the Treasury allow the Fed’s gold certificates to be valued at market? What are the implications if they don’t?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/does-the-federal-reserve-own-or-hold-gold.htm
Article 21-
https://www.bis.org/about/statutes-en.pdf

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d457.pdf

Instruments comprise financial instruments, foreign exchange (FX), and commodities. A financial instrument is any contract that gives rise to both a financial asset of one entity and a financial liability or equity instrument of another entity. Financial instruments include primary financial instruments (or cash instruments) and derivative financial instruments. A financial asset is any asset that is cash, the right to receive cash or another financial asset or a commodity, or an equity instrument. A financial liability is the contractual obligation to deliver cash or another financial asset or a commodity. Commodities also include non-tangible (ie non-physical) goods such as electric power.

Kevin

 

Jay Taylor refers to you here Jim.

Bill

Jay Taylor: Under “Basel III” Rules, Gold Becomes Money!
March 17, 2019

Excepted from Jay Taylor’s latest newsletter,

. . .

This also raises the question with regard to how much gold the U.S. actually holds as opposed to what it claims to hold. James Sinclair has always argued that the only way the world can overcome the debt that is strangling the global economy is to remonetize gold on the balance sheets of central banks at a price in many thousands of dollars higher. This would mean a major change in the global monetary system away from the dollar, as China has been pushing for the last decade or so.

If banks own and possess gold bullion, they can use that asset as equity and thus this will enable them to print more money. It may be no coincidence that as March 29th has been approaching banks around the world have been buying huge amounts of physical gold and taking delivery. For the first time in 50 years, central banks bought over 640 tons of gold bars last year, almost twice as much as in 2017 and the highest level raised since 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window and forced the world onto a floating rate currency system.

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Posted at 3:22 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Lawsuit By Sandy Hook Victims Against Gun Manufacturer Allowed To Move Forward
March 14, 2019

After months of silence, the Connecticut Supreme Court on Thursday reinstated a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the families of nine victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting against Remington Arms, the manufacturer of the rifle used in the shooting.

The court’s narrow decision, overturning a lower court judge, rules that Remington can be sued over its marketing practices under a Connecticut state law, despite protections offered to gun manufacturers by federal law. The ruling sends the case back to the lower court.

The suit is a high-stakes challenge to gun companies, which have rarely been held liable for crimes committed with their products, and could mark a new front in the battle over gun regulations and corporate accountability. It centers on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), a 2005 law that shields manufacturers and retailers from civil liability in lawsuits brought by victims of gun violence. An eventual ruling against Remington could establish legal precedent, opening doors for more lawsuits against gun manufacturers, and expose the company’s communications about its marketing plans.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Sunday reading.

Why Gold Is Still The Best Basis For Money
March 16, 2019

As we continue to enjoy the “Yellen gold standard,” now in its Powell phase — who knows how long it will last — let’s look at why the gold standard system worked so well for so many centuries, including nearly two centuries of U.S. history before the rupture in 1971, during which time the United States became the wealthiest country in the history of world.

In 1971, the economist Arthur Laffer — he was the chief economist of the Office of Management and Budget at the time — was asked what he thought the consequences would be of Nixon’s “closing of the gold window,” which effectively ended the Bretton Woods period when the dollar’s value was fixed at $35/ounce of gold.

“It won’t be as much fun to be an American anymore,” Laffer reportedly replied. And he was right.

But why? Why is it that the collective intelligence (let’s be generous) of today’s central bankers, and indeed all the central bankers since 1971, cannot outperform a yellow rock? This probably strikes some as bizarre, but it has always been thus. Way back in 1928, in a book called The Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Socialism and Capitalism, George Bernard Shaw declared:

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Posted at 1:29 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams www.shadowstats.com

– Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes

– Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
– These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, Construction and Payrolls
– February Housing Starts (March 26th), January Trade Deficit (March 27th) and An Eviscerated Annual Industrial Production Benchmarking (March 27th) Are the Last Major Reports, Prior to the March 28th Final GDP Estimate; There Is Limited Chance of a Reprieve
– The Economy Is Weakening Sharply and Quickly, Due to the Overly Aggressive Federal Reserve Tightening and Rate Hikes
– Where Current U.S. Economic Activity Has Signaled a New Recession, Major Business Sectors, Such as Manufacturing and Construction, Never Recovered Fully from the Last One
– Accordingly, the March 20th FOMC Meeting Is Not Too Early to Address the Intensifying Business Collapse; Yet, the FOMC Is Expected to Sit on Its Hands

“Bullet Edition No. 3”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Did you have any doubt this is a credit bubble?

Bonds With “Worst-Ever Covenants” Are 3x Oversubscribed
March 15, 2019

Just how much investor appetite is there for bonds? So much, that even in a week that saw the second biggest equity inflow on record (after a 13 week drought) buying of bonds continued for a 10th consecutive week, rising to $7.01bn from $2.74bn the week prior.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This flood into fixed income continues despite repeated warnings about the dangers of the corporate debt bubble from such investing icons as DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach and Marathon’s Bruce Richards, not to mention the IMF and BIS, who have been focusing on the growing risk of mass downgrades in the $3 trillion BBB-space, which could translate into a tsunami of fallen angels during the next recession.

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