Posted at 1:46 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Liquidity to what end?

“If Draghi gets aggressive on the monetary stimulus, look for something similar to the BOJ’s program: A qualitative quantitative easing (QQE), which would involve purchasing of equities in addition to bonds. If it is QQE then the monthly amount ought to be BIGGER as there are plenty of bank and financial stocks that the ECB could purchase, pumping liquidity into the financial system while supporting bank stock valuations, which have been decimated under negative interest rates.”

Liquidity to help institutions and hedge funds get out of financial stocks before the collapse?

Certainly, in my eyes, supporting financial stocks will do that, but nothing to resolve the economic turmoil Europe ( and the rest of the world ) is undergoing.

The public, again, is having the wool pulled over their eyes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stupidity represented by politicians

(not looking beyond their noses)

Fear represented by the public

(over reacting to the natural market corrections and cleansing mechanism in capitalism)

Greed represented by the big investment houses (utilizing the political system to their own ends, at the expense of the public)

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Notes From Underground: The ECB and the Swan Song of Mario Draghi
September 10, 2019

We are coming to the end of Mario Draghi and the “Whatever It Takes” era. Remember, the head of the European Central Bank said he would do whatever it takes to preserve the EURO. This fealty to the currency has resulted in a -40 basis point deposit rate, a massive expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet via sovereign and corporate bond purchases.

The EURO has been weakened since it has been a beloved tool of the carry traders. The negative result has been that European domestic banks have been crushed as lending margins have disappeared and negative rates have resulted in net payments to the ECB from the banks. (Unlike in the United States, where the interest on excess reserves rate has resulted in the FED paying out interest premiums to its deposit-taking institutions.)

Now, we’re going to have to contend with Draghi’s presentation Thursday, his last before Christine Lagarde takes the scepter.

The EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT markets have been pricing out an uber-dovish Draghi as BUNDS, OATS and BTPs have all been in corrective mode. The consensus seems to be that the ECB will cut the deposit rate to NEGATIVE 50 BASIS POINTS while embarking on a new, open-ended QE plan of 25 billion euros per month.

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Posted at 1:33 PM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Economist John Williams says the Fed is still not in President Trump’s corner when it comes to the economy. Williams contends, “The Fed was working against him (President Trump) on the economy, and they still are. Their primary concern is the banking system, and that certainly has to be supported, but when you have a weak economy, and this was fueled by the tightening of the Fed, I don’t think Trump is going to get blamed for that. It’s going to go against the Fed, and I don’t think it is going to hurt him that much in the upcoming election.

Williams says the real numbers say the economy is getting worse and not better. Williams thinks “The Fed is going to feel pressure to cut interest rates .5%” and not .25% that Fed Head Jay Powell has been indicating. Williams also thinks the Fed is going to feel pressure to start a “new round of QE.” Why? Williams says, “First of all, the economy is that weak. I am seeing it in the numbers, and I am sure they (Fed) are too. . . . The headline numbers that you hear are bloated, and they know it. . . . Construction spending is a lot weaker than reported. . . . So, we know the GDP is overstated. . . . They just reduced payroll employment . . . They overestimated payroll growth by 501,000. This eliminates 20% of the employment growth you have seen in the last year. . . . This also will be reflected in the GDP, and it will continue to get weaker. The Fed should be recognizing they have some bad numbers here. I think you are going to see retail sales numbers weaken. They will be out later this week, and also industrial manufacturing numbers will be weaker. They will be out next week. This is all before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The economy is weak enough that they’ve got to do something that will stimulate the economy by cutting more than a quarter point. There is a fair shot they go a half point (cut) and if not, they will be easing again soon. As things turn more negative, they are going to have to turn back to quantitative easing (money printing).”

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Posted at 9:48 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Remember Remember The 11th Of September!
September 11, 2019

Gold is flat this September 11th with the trade at $1,499.00, down 20 cents yet closer to the high at $1,502.90 than the low at $1,492.90. Silver is flat as well with its trade at $18.165, down 2.1 cents with the low at $18.065 and the high to beat at $18.335. The US Dollar’s trade now stands at 98.595, up another 28.8 points and right beside the high at 98.605 with the low way down at 98.28, all of this of course was done while we slept, before the Comex Open, and the London close.    

     Gold is still correcting in our emerging markets currency watch yet Silver may have proven itself to have bottomed out. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 14,971.26 Bolivar, showing a loss of 13.99 with Silver now at 181.42 Bolivar, proving a gain of 1.50. In Argentina, Gold is now priced at 83,923.68 taking out another 105.53 Peso’s with Silver at 1,016.99 gaining 7.98 in Peso value. Our European currency in crisis, the Turkish Lira, now has Gold valued at 8,640.92, it too showing a reduction in value of 21.88 with Silver now pegged at 104.69 showing the currency added .680 T-Lira in value.  

     We had a rather large delivery of receipts or physicals settled out in the September Silver Delivery System with the demand count now at 598 proving a reduction of 320 fully paid for demands with a Volume of 84 up on the board so far with a trading range between $18.070 and $18.065. This is a ½ penny trading range with 84 contracts being traded. Talk about tight, now the Volume posts 88 with the last additions/subtractions trading at the high ($18.07).    

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A J. Johnson Update;

So far this morning, inside the September Silver delivery futures contract, a Volume of 291 contracts swapped hands today. What’s really bizarre, strange, amazing odds, whatever one wants to use to describe, the trading range for these 291 swaps is ½ a penny…$18.070 and $18.065…

Stay Strong,

J. Johnson

Bill Holter’s Commentary

If anyone would know it would be first responders…

New York Area Fire Commissioners Call for New 9/11 Investigation

September 2, 2019

September 11, 2001, was nearly 20 years ago, and after all this time, so many questions still remain about what exactly happened. It is not socially acceptable to question the official explanation that was given for the collapse of the towers and the other events of that day, but now these questions are being taken more seriously.

However, the rushed and poorly managed 9/11 commission report did not do an adequate job at investigating the crimes, which left experts in a variety of different fields with questions about the official story. Many of these professionals belong to an organization called Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth, who have been pushing for a new investigation into the attacks for many years.

This July, they announced a major breakthrough in their fight for a proper investigation. According to a press release published on the group’s website, New York Fire Commissioners who were closely involved with the events of that day, have called for a new investigation into the 9/11 attacks.

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Posted at 9:34 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Bill,

Who does the CFTC think they should respond to if not a Representative?

JB

GATA is like a dog on the mailman’s leg!

Bill

Congressman Keeps Pressing Treasury, CFTC About Gold Market Rigging
September 10, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, is continuing his efforts to get answers from the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission about surreptitious interventions by the U.S. government in the financial and commodity markets and particularly the gold and silver markets.

Mooney’s efforts began with letters sent to the Federal Reserve chairman and treasury secretary in April 2018:

http://www.gata.org/node/18210

In July 2018 the Fed and Treasury responded to Mooney but only incompletely, the Fed denying that it was trading in gold but refusing to say whether it is trading in other markets, the Treasury giving a partial denial of gold trading but failing to answer about the government’s policy toward gold:

http://www.gata.org/node/18407

In February this year Mooney asked the CFTC, as GATA already had done, if it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading undertaken by the U.S. government or brokers acting for the U.S. government, or if such manipulative trading is authorized by federal law:

http://www.gata.org/node/18832

The CFTC has never responded to GATA or to Mooney.

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Posted at 9:03 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

But, how can this be? We are told we have the strongest economy ever? Come to think of it…didn’t this type of stuff happen back in 2008?

Moody’s Cuts Ford Credit Rating To ‘Junk’ Status
September 9, 2019

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Ford Motor Co.’s credit rating to “junk” status Monday, a move that could make it more expensive for the automaker to borrow as it undertakes a sweeping global restructuring amid slowing global sales and a rapidly changing industry.

The ratings agency believes the automaker’s years-long restructuring under CEO Jim Hackett will be too costly to generate much return for shareholders. Monday’s downgrade to Ba1 — the highest non-investment grade rating — comes as Ford and Hackett have said repeatedly over the last year that 2019 would deliver the results promised, including improved profit margins around the world.

Last August, Moody’s had downgraded Ford to its lowest investment grade, Baa3. In May, Moody’s upgraded Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV to the same Ba1 status, an improvement for the automaker driven by strong SUV and truck sales in North America. And the agency last November labeled General Motors Co.’s U.S. restructuring “credit positive.”

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver’s Resolutes Are Staying In Place!
September 10, 2019

  Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,    

      The pressure is on during the overnight with Gold seeing the most of the price beatings with the trade at $1,500.40, down $10.70 after being pushed down to $1,494.30 with the high to beat at $1,508. Silver is following with the trade at $18.015, down 15.2 cents after being knocked down to $17.855 with the high to beat at $18.135. The US Dollar is hardly worth talking about because it refuses to move with the trade at 98.425, up 17.7 points and close to its high at 98.44 with the low at 98.235. All of this was done sometime before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and as if parliament being shut down for a months’ time ain’t nothin’ but negative to precious metals.   

      We still show corrections in the price throughout our emerging markets watch with Venezuela’s Bolivar now pricing Gold at 14,985.25 showing a drop in value of 196.75 Bolivar with Silver trading at 179.92 showing a loss of 3.001 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso is pricing Gold at 84,029.21 showing a loss of 742.86 with Silver losing 12.18 with its price now at 1,009.01 A-Pesos. In the land of Turkey, Gold is now trading at 8,662.80 Lira showing a 44.76 Lira correction with Silver now at 104.01 losing 0.905 Lira.   

      September Silver’s Delivery Demands increased during yesterday’s trades with the fully paid for demands for Silver now at 918 showing an additional 33 contracts were added during yesterday’s push lower. So far this morning we show a Volume of 24 with a trading range between $17.885 and $17.77 with the last 2 buys at the high, yet still showing a negative of 13.5 cents from yesterdays close. The previous day’s activities within the delivery month are worth reviewing as the Volume recorded during yesterday’s trade showed 515 contracts traded out, or in. This is a very large Volume for such a small purchase, wouldn’t you say? We now have to keep an eye on Harvey’s stats to see how many of these buys were sent to the land without parliament or were actually delivered here.       

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Has Jamie Dimon been listening to Jim on our weekend calls? Jim has been saying this for over two years now, but as usual was early…

Jamie Dimon On The End Of Trading: “The Battle Is More In The Tech World Than In Having Brilliant Traders”
September 10, 2019

The world of trading, as generations of traders knew it, is over, and it took a timestamp from Jamie Dimon to make it official: “The battle is more in the tech world at this point than in having brilliant traders.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so, in a world in which being a better trader – i.e. outsmarting everyone else – no longer matters as the market is now hopelessly broken by central banks, and instead just speed and the ability to frontrun orderflow is relevant, it is no surprise that JPMorgan was reserved in its Q3 revenue outlook, which while set to rise 10% in Q3 – only due to a base effect – will continue the recent trend of disappointing trading revenue

“We’re not jumping for joy,” JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday during an investor conference in New York, quoted by Bloomberg. The 10% gain is only possible because Q3 2018 was very weak; on a sequential basis, the Q3 2019 revenue will be a decline of about 10% versus the already disappointing second quarter, Dimon said.

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Posted at 12:03 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

There is a massive substitution of U.S. dollar assets by gold – a strategy which has earned billions of dollars for the Bank of Russia just within several months.”

“Remember, nothing lasts forever…”

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

It is not just Russia Wolfgang!

Bill

Russia, China Continue “Massive Substitution” Of Dollar Assets By Gold
September 9, 2019

“I think it’s clear to everyone now” exclaimed Russian President Vladimir Putin, (and French President Macron recently said so publicly), “that the leading role of the West is ending. I cannot imagine an effective international organization without [Russia], India and China.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And while most politicians are all talk, in the case of both Russia and China, their actions speak louder than their words.

China‘s foreign exchange reserves jumped to $3.1072 trillion despite the falling yuan and escalating trade war with the US, while raising its gold holdings by nearly 2.89 million troy ounces (99 tons) in nine months. That’s nearly five percent more since the end of last year.

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Posted at 9:36 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver’s Resolutes Ain’t Budgin’
September 9, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,    

      We’re glad to see our precious metals are returning to higher prices, we remain optimistic regardless of the price swings, because of all the shorting activities behind the price are failing, with Gold at $1,520.10, up $4.70 and close to its high of $1,522.20 with the low at $1,511.50. Silver is leading the charge with the trade at $18.315, up 19.6 cents after getting up to $18.40 with the low at $18.015. The US Dollar’s trade remains Steady Eddie for now with its value at 98.295, close to the low at 98.27 with the high of 98.475. All this activity happened before 5 am pst, the Comex Open, the London close, and the suspension of Parliament.     

      Our emerging market currency watch is showing nothing but positive with the Venezuelan Bolivar pricing Gold at 15,182.00 offering up a 69.91 Bolivar gain with Silver at 182.921, showing a gain of 1.049 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now prices Gold at 84,772.07 Pesos, showing a slight gain of 4.34 with Silver now at 1,021.19 Pesos, it too gaining 1.04 since Friday’s quote. The Turkish Lira now has Gold pegged at 8,707.56, showing a gain of 74.19 T-Lira with Silver at 104.915, proving a gain of 1.016 in T-Lira value.    

      September Silver Deliveries are not disappointing with the Demand count now at 885, showing a reduction of 215 from Friday’s numbers and with a volume of 237 up on the board so far with a trading range between $18.205 and $17.96 with the last trade at $17.99. We offer another curious note on the trading range numbers for September Silver. The closing price on Friday was below the trading range in Silver. Yes I wrote the right! The trading range was $18.685 and $17.97, but the closing price was $17.968, go figure!       

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

$400 trillion, give or take a few trillion? Is this real? Yes probably close. The real shocker is that the cheerleaders at CNBS posted it!…But don’t buy gold or silver because they are too “scary scary”…Gold and silver are your ONLY protection!

Real US Debt Levels Could Be 2,000% Of Economy, A Wall Street Report Suggests
September 9, 2019

Total potential debt for the U.S. by one all-encompassing measure is running close to 2,000% of GDP, according to an analysis that suggests danger but also cautions against reading too much into the level.

AB Bernstein came up with the calculation — 1,832%, to be exact — by including not only traditional levels of public debt like bonds but also financial debt and all its complexities as well as future obligations for so-called entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and public pensions.

Putting all that together paints a daunting picture but one that requires nuance to understand. Paramount is realizing that not all of the debt obligations are set in stone, and it’s important to know where the leeway is, particularly in the government programs that can be changed either by legislation or accounting.

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Posted at 8:26 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

We have said this from day one about trade wars.

Dave

Trade Wars Are a Fool’s Game
September 8, 2019

According to the great military thinker, Maj. Gen. J.F.C. Fuller, ‘the object of war is not victory. It is to achieve political goals.’

Too bad President Donald Trump does not read books. He has started economic wars against China, Russia, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela without any clear strategic objective beyond inflating his ego as the world’s premier warlord and punishing them for disobedience.

Trump’s wars are economic. They deploy the huge economic and financial might of the United States to steamroll other nations that fail to comply with orders from Washington. Washington’s motto is ‘obey me or else!’ Economic wars are not bloodless. Imperial Germany and the Central Powers were starved into surrender in 1918 by a crushing British naval blockade.

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Bill,

This was brought up on Saturday’s talk.

Dave

9/11 and the American Orwellian Nightmare
September 6, 2019

Next week will mark the 18th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Politicians and bureaucrats wasted no time after that carnage to unleash the Surveillance State on average Americans, treating every citizen like a terrorist suspect.   Since the government failed to protect the public, Americans somehow forfeited their constitutional right to privacy. Despite heroic efforts by former NSA staffer Edward Snowden and a host of activists and freedom fighters, the government continues ravaging American privacy.

Two weeks after the 9/11 attacks, Deputy Assistant Attorney General John Yoo sent a secret memo to the Bush White House declaring that the Constitution’s prohibition on unreasonable searches was null and void: “If the government’s heightened interest in self-defense justifies the use of deadly force, then it also certainly would justify warrantless searches.” Yoo is best known for writing a harebrained memo on why presidents can order torture but he also helped sanctify the wholesale demolition of privacy.

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