Posted at 6:14 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear LT,

It is kind of a lopsided cup but it puts 1650 or so in range very soon.

What are your thoughts on the formation?



Dear BT,

The price is right at $1650.

The time is on or before January 14th 2011 or as Armstrong says, June of 2011.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A question that weights heavily on my mind.

Notes From Underground: NEWSFLASH-we are downgrading FITCH!
By Yra

We couldn’t resist taking this shot at the late-Friday news that Fitch downgraded Spanish debt to AA+ from AAA, which left us dazed and confused. Why did this ratings agency decide to release this on the Memorial Day weekend when the markets were thin and subject to a very volatile reaction? This decision is not of consequence as S&P downgraded Spanish debt in April. Could this ratings release not have waited until Tuesday when the markets were back at full strength and had deeper liquidity? Would Fitch’s reputation have suffered if they had waited another few days to make this inconsequential change?

This action raises more questions about the rating agencies at a time when they are undergoing intense scrutiny. We at NOTES are always trying to find the illogic of markets and this is one of those instances. It leaves one to wonder if some of the “objective” actors in the markets are as objective as the markets want to believe? For the supreme idiocy of this Friday’s action, we are downgrading FITCH, a company so removed from the reality of market action that it does not deserve the respect they have previously been accorded. It is time to reign in the power of the raters!


Posted at 12:57 AM (CST) by & filed under

Dear CIGAs,

We would all like to think the U.S. will not suffer the same problems as Greece.  I am talking about drastic spending cuts to just about everything.  Teachers, police pensions and social programs are all going to take big cuts whether the Greeks like it or not.  It is not just the Greeks in financial trouble, but all of Europe.  You know it is bad when former Fed Chief Paul Volcker says, “You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the euro.”  (Click here to see the full Reuters story.)  There is no way a pro like Volcker would say that if it was not already a distinct possibility.  

The fact is we already are dealing with too much debt and not enough money here in America.  Recent stories show the cracks in our economy getting bigger, not smaller, as the “recovery” camp would have you believe.  There are now 40 million U.S. citizens on food stamps—a new record.  It was reported just last Friday that “Up to 300,000 Public School Teachers May Lose Their Jobs This Year Due to Local Budget Cuts.”

Remember, states cannot print money; so, the Obama Administration is going to try to save teaching jobs with an emergency federal spending bill.  It will mean an additional $23 billion to the deficit.  Illinois has reportedly stopped paying its bills!  Contractors are owed $4.4 billion, and nonpayment may cause a wave of bankruptcies in that state.  There are nearly 3 dozen other U.S. states facing similar severe budget problems.  These are just a few stories from the last week or so showing the slow motion train wreck of a debt saturated economy.   

In the latest report from, economist John Williams says look out for another nasty downturn in the economy because the money supply (M3) is shrinking.  Williams writes, “. . . near-term economic activity will turn down, with major negative implications for the federal budget deficit, U.S. Treasury fundings, systemic solvency and the U.S. dollar. Such developments should place significant upside pressure on domestic inflation. U.S. difficulties eventually should dwarf the European sovereign solvency concerns. . .” 

So, what will perform well in this environment?  You better start looking for an exit if you are holding dollars, stocks or bonds.  According to Williams, “. . . the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar and U.S. equity and credit markets remains bleak, while the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains extremely strong.”  

All the spending for things such as $23 billion to save teachers jobs is mushrooming the deficit in this country.  According to Williams, from March 31 to April 30, 2010, the government added $175.6 billion in debt.  Let me say this again, $175.6 billion in debt was added in a single month!  Because of high unemployment, tax collections are imploding.  This is not what you want to see while spending and money printing are exploding.  

Meanwhile, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman takes the opposite point of view.  Krugman wrote an op-ed piece last week called, “We’re not Greece.”  He says, “In short, we’re not Greece. We may currently be running deficits of comparable size, but our economic position — and, as a result, our fiscal outlook — is vastly better.”   He also says, “So here’s the reality: America’s fiscal outlook over the next few years isn’t bad. We do have a serious long-run budget problem, which will have to be resolved with a combination of health care reform and other measures, probably including a moderate rise in taxes. But we should ignore those who pretend to be concerned with fiscal responsibility, but whose real goal is to dismantle the welfare state — and are trying to use crises elsewhere to frighten us into giving them what they want.” (Click here for the complete Krugman op-ed.)  

These are just “crises . . . to frighten us into giving them what they want.”  You have got to be kidding.  When this blows up, and it will sooner than later, I wonder if the Nobel people will ask for their prize back?

Link to full article…

Posted at 1:02 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Not exactly a bad idea except for the fact that the drachma would be blasted to oblivion.

This is a typical not-practical academic solution that would fail.

Greece urged to give up euro
Robert Watts
May 30, 2010

THE Greek government has been advised by British economists to leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt to save its economy.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable to escape their debt trap without devaluing their own currency to boost exports. The only way this can happen is if Greece returns to its own currency.

Greek politicians have played down the prospect of abandoning the euro, which could lead to the break-up of the single currency.

Speaking from Athens yesterday, Doug McWilliams, chief executive of the CEBR, said: “Leaving the euro would mean the new currency will fall by a minimum of 15%. But as the national debt is valued in euros, this would raise the debt from its current level of 120% of GDP to 140% overnight.

“So part of the package of leaving the euro must be to convert the debt into the new domestic currency unilaterally.”


Posted at 12:45 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear LT,

You know it’s bad when Wal-Mart has to drop prices to lure back shoppers!

This has your Formula written all over it.



All downward spirals go to zero unless interventions take place at the cause point. The cause point is OTC derivatives for which nothing of merit has been proposed or done.


Wal-Mart makes splashy price cuts to boost sales
Sat May 29, 4:09 PM
By Anne D’Innocenzio, The Associated Press

NEW YORK, N.Y. – Wal-Mart is counting on $1 ketchup bottles and sub-$4 cases of Coke to re-ignite sales in America.

The sharp cuts at U.S. stores, which came ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, have already pushed rivals such as Target into price wars. And the markdowns are expected to keep coming throughout the summer.

They’re one of the boldest moves the world’s largest retailer is making to turn around sluggish business at its U.S. namesake chain and win back shoppers from rivals. The cuts aren’t across the store but target 22 foods and other essentials at an average savings of 30 per cent — splashy enough to get attention and perhaps change perceptions.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It looks like the Formula is kicking butt…


Posted at 7:24 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Greetings Jim,

The Gold Currency Index continues to hold near all-time highs and probabilities still favor a period of consolidation following the recent surge from late March.  Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall on the daily chart, so for now the uptrend remains in control.  Looking ahead, if the short-term correction from earlier this month develops into a pennant or ascending triangle formation, another long-term breakout would become likely.  However, if the index breaks below uptrend support near 30.40, a longer period of consolidation would be forecast.  It is also worth noting that the positive divergence between the GCI and gold in US dollar terms remains in place.


Prometheus Market Insight



CIGA Fran says

"Small enough to fail."

3 Fla. banks, 1 each in Nev., Calif. shut down
Regulators shut down 3 banks in Florida, 1 each in Nevada, California, for 78 failures in 2010
Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 28, 2010, 9:56 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators on Friday shut down three banks in Florida and one each in Nevada and California, bringing the number of U.S. bank failures this year to 78.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over the Florida banks, all owned by holding company Bank of Florida Corp. They are Bank of Florida-Southeast, based in Fort Lauderdale, with $595.3 million in assets; Bank of Florida-Southwest, based in Naples, with $640.9 million in assets; and Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay, based in Tampa, with $245.2 million in assets.

The FDIC also seized Las Vegas-based Sun West Bank, with $360.7 million in assets, and Granite Community Bank, located in Granite Bay, Calif., with $102.9 million in assets.

EverBank, based in Jacksonville, Fla., agreed to acquire the assets and deposits of the failed Florida banks. Los Angeles-based City National Bank is assuming all the assets and deposits of Sun West Bank, and Tri Counties Bank, based in Chico, Calif., is assuming those of Granite Community Bank.

In addition, the FDIC and EverBank agreed to share losses on the three Florida banks’ loans and other assets. Losses will be shared on $437.3 million of Bank of Florida-Southeast’s assets, $568.1 million of Bank of Florida-Southwest’s assets and $210.8 million of Bank of Florida-Tampa Bay’s assets. The federal agency and City National Bank agreed to share losses on $280 million of Sun West Bank’s assets. The FDIC is sharing with Tri Counties Bank losses on $89.3 million of Granite Community Bank’s assets.


Sun West Bank fails, will reopen as City National
Published Friday, May 28, 2010 | 6:14 p.m.

The Nevada Financial Institutions Division on Friday announced that Sun West Bank in Las Vegas has failed and that its branches will reopen on Tuesday as branches of City National Bank.

Sun West, which ended 2009 with only $9.3 million in equity capital, saw its equity cushion deteriorate even further in the first quarter of this year when it lost $4.665 million.

Sun West reported that in the first quarter, it collected $3.788 million in interest income, but that amount was more than canceled by interest expenses of $1.489 million and another $3.783 million it set aside to cover loan and lease losses.

After some high-profile bank failures in Las Vegas in 2008 and 2009, Sun West is the first bank in Las Vegas to fail this year.

Sun West’s closure is another reminder that thinly capitalized banks in Southern Nevada are having trouble surviving the recession that has decimated commercial and residential real estate values, pushed Las Vegas to the top of national foreclosure lists and led to a record local unemployment rate of 14.2 percent.


Posted at 2:09 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

David Rosenburg, an investment analyst out of Toronto, was featured on Bloomberg today until he made a gold price prediction of $3000 which he classified as most likely too conservative.

The interviewer made the mistake of asking him why. His answer was immediate and surgical.

You should have heard their attempt to flush him. All you could hear was David, David, David, as they tried to shut him up.

Well done David.

Mid Day Thoughts

Spain’s was debt downgraded by Fitch. The euro’s fall was decelerated by intervention stepping up slightly below 1.23.

All interventions fail. Large US Fed swaps were utilized in this action.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Let me see, have we heard from Moody’s, Fitch and the IMF recently on this problem state?

Bankruptcy talk spreads among Calif. muni officials
By Jim Christie Jim Christie – Thu May 27, 4:51 pm ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Two years after Vallejo, California, filed for bankruptcy protection, officials in nearby Antioch are also tossing around the ‘B’ word.

Antioch’s leaders earlier this month said bankruptcy could be an option for the cash-strapped city of roughly 100,000 on the eastern fringe of the San Francisco Bay area.

Antioch’s fiscal woes are standard issue for local governments in California: weak revenue from retail sales and property taxes is forcing spending cuts, layoffs and furloughs.

But cost-cutting measures may not be enough to keep Antioch’s books balanced, so its city council is openly discussing bankruptcy.

"We just want to alert people to the possibility," Antioch Mayor Pro Tem Mary Helen Rocha said.

Orange County Treasurer Chriss Street would not be surprised if more local governments across the Golden State sound a similar alarm.

Street expects more talk of municipal bankruptcy across California because local government finances are in such dire shape — a situation underscored on Wednesday when a top finance officer for Sacramento County projected a worse-than-expected shortfall for the county of $181 million, which could force more than 1,000 layoffs from the county’s payroll.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The East will lead. The West has given away their inheritance from the founding fathers.

Gold is your only insurance as all fiat currency, if even in an index, have but only one way to go as storehouses of value – down.

An SDR or whatever finally becomes the virtual reserve currency, if not tied to gold in the manner I have outlined many times, will in a short time fail.

Gold a ‘Good Choice’ for Boosting Global Use of Yuan (Update2)
By Bloomberg News

May 28 (Bloomberg) — China’s trade in yuan-denominated gold investment products moves the currency closer toward global acceptance and the country should develop more of them, a central bank official said.

Pricing commodities in the currency “helps China’s goal to internationalize the yuan,” Wang Zhenying, deputy director- general of the Department of Financial Management at the Shanghai office of the People’s Bank of China, said today. “Gold is a good choice to have yuan trading.”

Gold consumption in China, the world’s biggest producer, may double within the next 10 years as supplies fail to keep pace with demand from investors and the jewelry industry, the World Gold Council said in March. China, the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, is seeking greater use of its currency to reduce reliance on the dollar.

“We agree that yuan-denominated gold trading will help enhance the yuan’s global status,” Chen Shiyong, general manager of financial markets at Industrial Bank Co., said in interview today. “We also would like to be part of the efforts to increase gold investment products available to the public.”

The trading volume of the gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 12 percent last year, compared with an almost fourfold advance for copper, 92 percent increase in rubber and 39 percent gain for aluminum, according to bourse data.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Having bailed out so much, bailouts cannot in any practical way be curtailed.

QE to infinity guarantees the demise of fiat currency as a storehouse of value.

The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A ‘Virtual Certainty’
Vincent Fernando, CFA | May 27, 2010, 3:18 AM

The stock of U.S. money as measured by ‘M3’ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April.

This 9.6% annualized contraction is unprecedented in the post-Depression era, and shows how, in this sense, America isn’t printing more money. There are actually less dollars in the system since U.S. money supply is crashing, even well into the recent economic recovery.

The positive take on this is that we don’t have to worry about either inflation or the Fed tightening significantly any time soon.

The negative take is that this crashing money supply will lead to both deflation and a double dip recession:


"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Timing is everything. Fitch downgrades Spain today which by definition downgrades the euro.

Geithner talks up stability deal
By Quentin Peel in Berlin, Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: May 27 2010 14:45 | Last updated: May 28 2010 00:18

The US and Europe are in broad agreement on imposing more conservative rules on financial institutions, but such regulation should not be so drastic that it would “create headwinds to the economic recovery”, said Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, in Berlin on Thursday.

On a whirlwind visit for talks in Germany and the UK on the global economy and the eurozone crisis, Mr Geithner stopped short of public criticism of European governments for excessive spending cuts. But he warned of the need for a balance between financial austerity, tougher regulation and continuing growth incentives.

He said talks had focused on the agenda for the forthcoming summit of the Group of 20 largest economies, including co-ordinated action on growth and financial reform.

Mr Geithner had been expected to deliver a forceful warning, particularly in Germany, of the dangers of causing a new global slowdown with harsh budget cuts. Instead he praised the “leadership role” of the Berlin government in organising the €750bn ($926bn) stabilisation package for the eurozone.

After talks with Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, Mr Geithner declined to criticise Berlin for banning naked short selling of eurozone government bonds last week.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you have the feeling that Mother Earth is somewhat pissed off?

I know the Hopi’s and Aboriginals’ are.

Guatemala volcano forces airport closure, kills one

GUATEMALA CITY — Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom has declared a state of emergency after a powerful eruption at the southern Pacaya volcano killed one person and forced the international airport to close.

Ash blanketed the region as rocks and lava spewed from the volcano 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of the capital, as Colom late Thursday issued the emergency decree lasting at least 15 days for the three departments nearest the eruption, which began Wednesday night and has since built in intensity.

The La Aurora International Airport was closed to ensure planes were not flying through the volcano’s hazardous ash cloud or landing on the ash-strewn runway, said spokeswoman Monica Monge. Incoming flights were being diverted to airports in other parts of the country, she told reporters.

Some 1,600 people were evacuated from the slopes of the volcano, which rises 2,552 meters (8,372 feet) above sea level in the tropical Central American nation.

The burnt body of Guatemalan television journalist Anibal Archila was found near the volcano by a colleague, who said the reporter had been unable to escape the raining rocks and other projectiles thrown out in the eruption.

Three children aged seven, nine and 10 are also missing in the area, officials said.

There are 288 volcanoes in Guatemala, eight of which are active.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is a unique idea. Fire the politicians and keep the teachers.

100,000 teachers nationwide face layoffs
By Nick Anderson
Thursday, May 27, 2010

Senior congressional Democrats and the Obama administration scrambled Wednesday to line up support for $23 billion in federal aid to avert an estimated 100,000 or more school layoffs in a brutal year for education budgets coast to coast.

As early as Thursday, the House Appropriations Committee expects to take up a bill that couples the school funding with spending for the Afghanistan war — a measure that has bipartisan support. But a parallel push in the Senate stalled this week after a leading proponent concluded that he couldn’t muster enough votes to surmount Republican opposition.

"We desperately need Congress to act — to recognize the emergency for what it is," Education Secretary Arne Duncan said Wednesday on Capitol Hill. "We have to keep hundreds of thousands of teachers teaching."

Republicans and some Democrats say the government can’t afford an extension of last year’s economic stimulus that would add to the federal deficit. The stimulus law kept many school budgets afloat with $49 billion in direct aid to states and billions of dollars more for various programs. But the stimulus funding is trailing off before state and local tax revenue can recover from the recession.

Skeptics of a new education jobs fund point out that the teaching force in recent years has grown faster than enrollment, with schools adding instructional coaches and reducing class sizes.


Posted at 2:02 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

Fitch’s downgrade of Spain pushed the equity markets over the cliff after yesterday’s big relief rally on the news that the Chinese were going to stay with the Euro (what did people think they were going to say? “Oh yes – we are going to dump all of our Euro denominated debt tomorrow morning.”)

I am not particular sure why equities faded on this news as did the Euro since everyone and their mother expected it already, so to me it is not “news”. Still, it perhaps served to bring suspicions concerning the remainder of the PIIGS’s financial footing to the forefront of short-sighted traders’ minds once again.

Once the equities went down, so did everything else except the Dollar and the bond market. That includes gold which while it held fairly well considering the widespread algorithm selling across the commodity futures market, could not get through $1,220, which is a resistance level that must be taken out to spark some short covering and kick it up to $1,227 where it then has a chance to resume trending to the upside.

Failure to take out $1,220 soon will likely lead to a setback down towards $1,190 which is the first level of chart support. Below that is much stronger support centered near $1170 or so.

It looks to me like we have a lot of holiday trade occurring today with some of the markets I watch moving rather sharply both higher and lower as the volume and liquidity drops off in front of Memorial Day.

Open interest has fallen off a decent amount this week during the rollover period and is down near 558,000 contracts. As mentioned previously, I am especially interested in seeing whether the Swap Dealers have continued to draw down their short position in this market. If so, it would make the 4th consecutive week that this fledgling trend has been intact. Keep in mind that we had three big down days last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday which would have given shorts a good opportunity to cover.

August gold is now the lead contract as June gets ready to head into its delivery period. I still do not understand why those who need some large amounts of gold do not stand for delivery and get it out of the Comex. They would end the gold suppression scheme in a week’s time and allow the metal to move to a natural level of equilibrium since the gold shorts could not deliver the gold at current prices.

The HUI is back to following the broader equity markets swinging higher and lower in sync with those.

The sort of wild swings in the equity markets this week is further proof that the hedge fund algorithms have now become the markets in the US. Whatever those infernal things do on any given day, is what the market will do, irregardless of what might be occurring fundamentally. That is why investors must not form judgments on the macroeconomic scene based on day to day price action. Study the longer term oriented price charts for clues to what the big picture is and read guys like my friend Monty Guild’s perspective to keep from having your mind whipsawed by these out-of-control hedge funds.

Jim has given you all the reasons why gold is headed inexorably higher. None of the causes behind the decade-long rise in the price of gold have changed; if anything the disease is becoming more virulent as the health of paper currencies becomes more suspect and the debt-ladened West succumbs to the “cure” of its sickness – too much debt by issuing more of the same.

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini


Posted at 1:50 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Easy Money, Hard Truths

How many times have you read the word consequences on this blog or A lot. The consequences of the action taken to preserve a failing fiat system will not be postponed much longer.

Before this recession it appeared that absent action, the government’s long-term commitments would become a problem in a few decades. I believe the government response to the recession has created budgetary stress sufficient to bring about the crisis much sooner. Our generation — not our grandchildren’s — will have to deal with the consequences.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Ken, with certificates in hand, reminds us of the following:

"A breakout to the upside will follow a monthly close above 1195. Turning points are May and September with December/January thereafter."
–Martin A. Armstrong, 04/07/10

A Consolidation & Breakout Study of Gold Updated

Back on December 19th 2009, consolidation breakout study of gold, I presented the following observations about the breakout of gold from consolidation patterns:

Force of the breakout is a function of time and range (or volatility) within the consolidation. The longer the time of consolidation and greater the volatility within the consolidation, the greater the force of the breakout.

The latest gold breakout occurred after an extremely volatile and long consolidation. To suggest that it has topped out after 3-months and 9% rally from the breakout ignores the massive energy stored within the previous consolidation.

Has gold peaked as so many have suggested on F-TV?

Today’s conclusion remains the same. One of the longest and most volatile (violent) gold corrections will produce the biggest breakout move of this bull move. Remember, TA is a function of time and pressure. As each increases, the greater the resulting price move. In other words, this move is not done.

Investors must stand strong with gold because shallow arguments and traders talking their book are design to confuse and misdirect the message from a consolidation and breakout study of gold.

A Consolidation & Breakout Study of Gold:



Consumer spending posts weak April reading

The personal consumption to income ratio remains above 85%. A society based on excessive consumption with little investment is not sustainable. When wealth created from previous productive endeavors is consumed or transferred, society is left with obligations that it cannot pay.

Personal consumption to income ratio:

Consumer spending was stagnant in April while incomes posted a tiny advance, signs that the economic recovery could slow.




Paper gold, GLD, sits above 12/4/09 gap resistance shown as by the dark cyan line on quiet trading. This zone represents major resistance from the previous C-wave high. The clustering of gaps, 5/11, 5/19, and 5/26, reflects the importance of this zone. The longer price sits above this zone, the stronger the pull of the 5/12 high exerts on price. $1350 range gold remains a reason projection on this move.

Gold ETF (GLD):


Dear Jim,

The commentator makes light of it in this interview but she notes the markets that have "bucked the trend" in this global May equity decline. Tanzania happens to be one of them!

CIGA Marc in the Trenches

Bloomberg Television Alert

With a little bit of volatility mixed in there just for fun. if you take a look at the world index, it is pretty clear that the spelling — selling expand across the globe. i just took a look to see which markets defied the drop. You have the big markets like Tanzania, she long ago, Venezuela.

If you went to the frontier, you’re protected.

It has been a pretty bad month. No real relief there. Hopefully, things will get better.

The other theme of the month was that things were more technical in terms of the trading pattern. We talk so much about what was happening in the currency markets, leading the way for equities.

I was interesting to find out that the euro was not the worst performer against the dollar for the month of May. You had the Aussie dollar falling more than the euro. That shows how the bureau was the catalyst for people to take a lot of money off the table from these risk currencies. The euro started out at the month of May at $1.32.

Where are we now?

Against the yen, it has lost 10% value. it is a good gauge for what is happening in the global capital markets. That is not a good sign there.