Posted at 10:39 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

CIGA Jeremiah J. tells us the truth in a cartoon.

Bill

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Look especially at the Gold to monetary base ratio chart, very, very interesting! It is about putting things in perspective!

GG

The Brutal War In Gold – Is A $10,000 – $20,000 Gold Price Really Possible?
October 27, 2017

With gold recently pulling back to $1,270, today King World News thought it was a good idea to take a step back and look at the big picture of the war in the gold market. This led to an interesting question: Are the forecasts for the gold price hitting $10,000, $15,000, or $20,000 really possible?

$10,000, $15,000, $20,000 Gold?

October 27 (King World News) – MacroTrends: This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level.

King World News note: The chart below reveals just how far the bull market in gold has to run before it ends in exhaustion. Gold would have to advance 14.5-times in price vs the monetary base in order to hit the 4.8 level highlighted above. If the monetary base just stayed stagnant and the 4.8 ratio is hit, that means the gold price will be heading toward the $20,000 level.

Gold To Monetary Base Ratio

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GG, as I wrote a few years back when Jim first suggested $50,000 gold, “$50,000gold may be laughably low”!
Bill

Posted at 10:32 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

https://twitter.com/wikileaks

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Following the money almost always leads to truth bombs!

The Coming Russia Bombshells
October 26, 2017

The confirmation this week that Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee paid an opposition-research firm for a “dossier” on Donald Trump is bombshell news. More bombshells are to come.

The Fusion GPS saga isn’t over. The Clinton-DNC funding is but a first glimpse into the shady election doings concealed within that oppo-research firm’s walls. We now know where Fusion got some of its cash, but the next question is how the firm used it. With whom did it work beyond former British spy Christopher Steele?…

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Look at this! The elites turning on each other…and on CNN no less!

Panetta: Intelligence Committee Needs to Look into Clinton/DNC Dossier Payment
October 27, 2017

Former CIA Director Leon Panetta said that the Senate Intelligence Committee is going to have to look into the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for funding the controversial Trump dossier during an interview on Thursday.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked Panetta how it was possible that neither “the chair of the DNC and the Clinton campaign” knew about payments for the dossier.

“Well, it’s obviously something that the Intelligence Committee is going to have to look at,” Panetta said. “You know, knowing presidential campaigns, they’re big operations and somehow the left hand may not know what the right hand is doing. And that could be the case here.”

Panetta continued, “I really do think that the committee is going to have to get into this, determine just exactly what happened. Who knew what and when?”

Blitzer followed up by asking Panetta why Clinton campaign attorney Marc Elias didn’t tell Clinton campaign chair, John Podesta, they had paid for the dossier.

Elias was the lawyer was represented the Clinton campaign and DNC, during the election and is alleged to have paid Fusion GPS for the Trump dossier.

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Posted at 11:08 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The next Las Vegas?

Role-Player Registration: Oklahoma (Is This Where The Next False Flag Will Be?)
October 24, 2017

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Get PAID $475 to assist the Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas National Guard in Oklahoma City as a Casualty Role Player (CRP) the week of 30 OCTOBER thru 02 NOVEMBER 2017work4hds.com/apply

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Role-Player Registration: Oklahoma

Human Domain Solutions, LLC

OKLAHOMA – VIGILANT GUARD

DISASTER RESPONSE TRAINING EXERCISE

Human Domain Solutions (HDS), LLC is now hiring ​Casualty Role Players (CRP)​ to participate in an Oklahoma Vigilant Guard training event October 30, 2017 thru November 2, 2017 at Warr Acres Fire Training Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. ​This exercises will be an Oklahoma emergency response to a simulated incident involving contamination elements. CRPs will be moulaged (injury makeup and fake blood) to portray various physical and emotional injuries and conditions, and will go through medical triage, decontamination, and medical treatment several times during each day of the exercises. Arrival times will be early morning, and the exercises will run between 6-8 hours each day. CRPs will wear cut-away prop clothing and will be washed in decontamination lines to simulate the cleaning off of contamination substances.

This is an excellent opportunity to show appreciation for these brave men and women of the National Guard. Those who have participated in past National Guard disaster preparedness exercises have found it very rewarding: you get to support this important state and community service–and get paid while doing so.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Much too close to take comfort. The USA is ungovernable. Has anyone told the DNC that Trump won?

Budget Vote Raises Red Flag For GOP On Tax Reform
October 26, 2017

The tight 216-212 House vote Thursday to pass the GOP budget is raising a red flag for Republicans on tax reform.

The GOP barely scraped up enough votes to pass their partisan budget, as 20 on their side defected.

That included 11 GOP lawmakers from New York and New Jersey who wanted to send a message about the need for their leaders to compromise on plans to eliminate the state and local tax deduction, which could hit their districts hard.

In reality, Republicans probably were always going to be able to pass the budget, a critical step toward tax reform since it unlocks rules that would protect the GOP legislation from a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.

But a number of lawmakers held their votes until the end on Thursday, telling leaders that they will have to deal with them on the tax bill if they want it to be approved.

“There were many members who voted yes, but they were holding their nose while they did it,” said Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.), who voted no. “They voted yes to keep the process going forward. It doesn’t mean they’re voting for the status quo of the tax framework, though.”

None of this means the House will be unable to pass their actual tax reform package, which is to be released next week and will be marked up in committee on Nov. 6.

Republicans are under intense pressure to get the tax bill approved given the failure to pass ObamaCare repeal. Nearly a year of unified GOP government has yet to include a major legislative victory.

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Tucker Probes Unanswered Questions About Security Guard in Vegas Massacre
October 25, 2017

Tucker Carlson said he obtained new evidence showing that Mandalay Bay security guard Jesus Campos traveled to Mexico recently, only returning to the U.S. this week.

He said Campos was seen returning from Baja California Norte into the United States at the San Ysidro, Calif. crossing.

However, previous reports said Campos was wounded by shooter Stephen Paddock who fired a high-caliber round into his leg, which former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino said would cause marked damage.

Carlson also said one of his producers investigating the background of Campos was gruffly hung up on when he asked law enforcement about the man.

He said it raised one of many questions he has about Campos and the investigation at large.

Carlson said his team tried to find out if Campos was a licensed security guard in the state of Nevada, since little is know about him.

When the state said he was not, Carlson’s producer called the Clark County Sheriff’s Office to find out what might otherwise be needed to be employed as a security guard there.

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Posted at 8:56 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

The election not over, if you judge by the fact Hillary is still running for President.

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

FEC Complaint Alleges Hillary, DNC Broke Election Law By Not Disclosing Trump-Russia Dossier Funding
October 25, 2017

Today the Campaign Legal Center (CLC) filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign committee violated campaign finance law by failing to accurately disclose the purpose and recipient of payments for the dossier of research alleging connections between then-candidate Donald Trump and Russia. The CLC’s complaint asserts that by effectively hiding these payments from public scrutiny the DNC and Clinton “undermined the vital public information role of campaign disclosures.”

On October 24, The Washington Post revealed that the DNC and Hillary for America paid opposition research firm Fusion GPS to dig into Trump’s Russia ties, but routed the money through the law firm Perkins Coie and described the purpose as “legal services” on their FEC reports rather than research. By law, campaign and party committees must disclose the reason money is spent and its recipient.

“By filing misleading reports, the DNC and Clinton campaign undermined the vital public information role of campaign disclosures,” said Adav Noti, senior director, trial litigation and strategy at CLC, who previously served as the FEC’s Associate General Counsel for Policy. “Voters need campaign disclosure laws to be enforced so they can hold candidates accountable for how they raise and spend money. The FEC must investigate this apparent violation and take appropriate action.”

“Questions about who paid for this dossier are the subject of intense public interest, and this is precisely the information that FEC reports are supposed to provide,” said Brendan Fischer, director, federal and FEC reform at CLC. “Payments by a campaign or party committee to an opposition research firm are legal, as long as those payments are accurately disclosed. But describing payments for opposition research as ‘legal services’ is entirely misleading and subverts the reporting requirements.”

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Courtesy of GG.

Jim

ECB Announces Dovish €30 Billion QE Taper Through September 2018 “Or Beyond”; Euro Tumbles
October 26, 2017

While the ECB kept all of its three key rates unchanged as expected, and also kept the pace of QE at €60 billion until the end of the year, confirming the numerous trial balloons overthe past month, the ECB announced that it would cut the rate of QE in half, to €30 billion “from January 2018 until the end of September 2018” adding that this would extend “beyond, if necessary” and “until inflation path has sustainably adjusted.”

While the open-ended nature of the announcement was expected by some, the market has taken it as a dovish development, as well as the announcement that the ECB will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP “for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary.”

Incidentally, according to preliminary calculations, at a tapered €30 billion rate of QE, the ECB would have until Q2 2019 before it hits the Bund scarcity bottleneck.

Furthermore, the ECB’s the soothing promise that “this will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance” has led to dovish plunge in both Eurozone yields and the EURUSD, which tumbled on the announcement which the markets clearly perceived as risk-friendly.

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Very interesting! Sent to us from good friend and cybersecurity expert Jeff.

Bill

A Bug In A Popular Maritime Platform Left Ships Exposed
October 26, 2017

AH, THE HIGH seas. Nothing around you but salt air, water for miles, and web connectivity from satellites. Peace and quiet. But researchers at the security consulting firm IOActive say that software bugs in the platforms ships use to access the internet could expose data at sea. And these vulnerabilities hint at larger threats to international maritime infrastructure.

A report published Thursday outlines two flaws in the AmosConnect 8 web platform, which ships use to monitor IT and navigation systems while also facilitating messaging, email, and web browsing for crewmembers. Compromising AmosConnect products, developed by the Inmarsat company Stratos Global, would expose extensive operational and personal data, and could even undermine other critical systems on a ship meant to be isolated.

“It’s low-hanging fruit,” says Mario Ballano, principal security consultant at IOActive who conducted the research. “The software that they’re using is often 10 to 15 years old, it was meant to be implemented in an isolated way. So other software in these environments probably suffer from similar vulnerabilities, because the maritime sector originally didn’t have connection over the internet. But now things are changing.”

The two vulnerabilities Ballano found in AmosConnect 8 aren’t readily accessible, but would provide deep access into a ship’s systems for an attacker with a gateway onto the ship’s network—perhaps through a compromised mobile device brought on board, a tainted USB stick used to exchange documents at ports, or physical access. The first bug is in the platform’s login form that would allow an attacker to access the database where credentials are stored for the software, revealing all the username and password sets. Even worse, AmosConnect 8 stores these credential pairs in plaintext, meaning an attacker wouldn’t even need to crack an encryption scheme to use what they find.

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A brief history of the creation of the Federal Reserve from our good friend CIGA Dan. As he finishes with, reading the book “The Creature from Jekyll Island” is an excellent read if you wish to understand “why and how” the Fed was created.

Bill

A Trip Trough Time to Jekyll Island

Creation of the Federal Reserve

The Year is 1910; America had gone through three Central Banks. The bankers are tired of picking up the losses and at the same time the people are calling for breaking the power grip of the Banking Trust.

The bankers (J.P. Morgan, Rockefellers, Warburg’s of Germany & the Rothschild’s of Europe) , who are competitors , put their differences aside and decided to have the meeting.

A little Trivia: The little man on the Monopoly Board is J. P. Morgan. Also, in the story Little Orphan Annie: Daddy Warbucks is a portrayal of Paul Warburg.

On an evening in November, representatives of the bankers secretly arrived at the Hoboken, New Jersey Train Station to board the private train car of Sen. Nelson Aldrich (father- in- law of John D. Rockefeller, Jr). They were bound for a two day trip to the coast of Georgia.

They were instructed to speak to each other using first name only. Even two used the names: Wilber and Orville ….taken from the Wright brothers.

When reaching the coast, the men traveled by ferry to a private Island: Jekyll Island. This is where the super wealthy had summer cottages. (More like million dollar homes.) On the Island is the Jekyll Island Club House. The secret meeting was in the club house and, to make sure no one was suspicious, they gave the normal staff the week off .

The men representing the bankers (including Asst. Sec. of Treasury A. Piatt Andrew) met there for 10 days to hammer out and write what would later be the Federal Reserve Act!

Isn’t it ironic: The banking trust wrote the bill that befits them!

This secret meeting on Jekyll Island was creating a banking cartel (no different than a banana cartel where profits benefit the cartel members). The losses would be passed on to the taxpayer through inflation or bailout by the taxpayer.

When they all got back to New York and Washington., D.C., the next step was to make what the bankers wrote goes into law. The biggest reason, as in many cartels, is a need for government as partner and enforce the cartel agreement.

Sen. Nelson Aldrich was so excited about this creation; he wanted put his name on the bill. The bankers warned him it is going to fail because of his relations to the Rockefellers. They were right; the bill did fail!

So they waited a few years to give it another try. This time they gave the bill a better name: Federal Reserve Act, to give the impression it is a federal agency (which it is not) and it has reserves (It has none).

This time, Paul Warburg recommended a couple excellent changes so the bill would get support. The cartel members were up in arms as to what he was thinking. His response was perfect: The idea is to get the bill passed, then we can change it back for the benefit of members. The Federal Reserve Act was passed on December 22, 1913 when Congress was preoccupied on leaving for Christmas break.

Over the years many more changes were made to benefit the banking cartel, but not the people!

Years later, some men who attended the secret meeting at Jekyll Island admitted the meeting occurred in their memoirs’. There is also a brass plaque in the Jekyll Island club house and it says: “In this room the Federal Reserve System was created.”

Dan Dougherty

Note: To understand the banking system in more detail; Read the book “Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin


Nothing redacted?

JB

JFK Assassination Records – 2017 Additional Documents Release

The National Archives and Records Administration is releasing documents previously withheld in accordance with the JFK Assassination Records Collection Act. The vast majority of the Collection (88%) has been open in full and released to the public since the late 1990s. The records at issue are documents previously identified as assassination records, but withheld in full or withheld in part. Learn more

This July release consists of 3,810 documents, including 441 formerly withheld-in-full documents and 3,369 documents formerly released with portions redacted. The documents originate from FBI and CIA series identified by the Assassination Records Review Board as assassination records. More releases will follow.

To view the entire file, you may visit the National Archives at College Park and request access to the original records.

Accessing the Release Files

Each release file is a ZIP file containing copies of the records and a corresponding XLSX spreadsheet with metadata about each file.

To access the files, you will need:

decompression software such as WinZip to “unzip” the contents

software such as Adobe Acrobat to view the PDF files

software such as Windows Media Player to listen to the WAV files

software such as Microsoft Excel to view the XLSX spreadsheet

Once a file has been unzipped, use the XLSX spreadsheet to understand the content and context of each file.

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Posted at 1:05 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Where is the RAGE? The Teflon Donness calls it Baloney! Not me.

Trump Rails Over ‘Fake Dossier’ After Clinton Revelation
October 25, 2017

President Trump on Wednesday used the news that Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee funded a dossier of allegations about his ties to Russia as a means of attacking it, calling it a “fake dossier” and questioning the credibility of the federal probe into Moscow’s interference in the 2016 election.

Trump said the dossier is one of just several recent examples of how his critics “made up the whole Russia hoax.”

“I have to say, the whole Russian thing is what it’s turned out to be,” he told reporters at the White House. “This was the Democrats coming up with an excuse for losing an election.”

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that the Clinton campaign and the DNC funded the dossier. The news has created a problem for Democrats, as the report shows the Democratic presidential campaign funded a foreign spy’s opposition research — an accusation similar to complaints that Democrats have brought against Trump’s campaign.

Former British spy Christopher Steele compiled the dossier for the opposition research firm Fusion GPS.

It contains a series of lewd allegations about the president’s personal life and detailed deep financial ties between Trump and high-ranking Russian officials.

The document may have been used by the FBI in its investigation into whether Trump campaign officials had improper contacts with Russians about the election.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Maybe you could call this “piling on” but how many crimes did Al Capone commit and skate on before being nabbed for the “obscure” charge of tax evasion?

Hillary for America, DNC Failed to Disclose Legally Required Information about Funding of Trump-Russia Dossier
October 25, 2017

WASHINGTON – Today, Campaign Legal Center (CLC) filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign committee violated campaign finance law. They failed to accurately disclose the purpose and recipient of payments for the dossier of research alleging connections between then-candidate Donald Trump and Russia, effectively hiding these payments from public scrutiny, contrary to the requirements of federal law.

On October 24, The Washington Post revealed that the DNC and Hillary for America paid opposition research firm Fusion GPS to dig into Trump’s Russia ties, but routed the money through the law firm Perkins Coie and described the purpose as “legal services” on their FEC reports rather than research. By law, campaign and party committees must disclose the reason money is spent and its recipient.

“By filing misleading reports, the DNC and Clinton campaign undermined the vital public information role of campaign disclosures,” said Adav Noti, senior director, trial litigation and strategy at CLC, who previously served as the FEC’s Associate General Counsel for Policy. “Voters need campaign disclosure laws to be enforced so they can hold candidates accountable for how they raise and spend money. The FEC must investigate this apparent violation and take appropriate action.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Just like the knuckleheads who oversubscribed Argentina’s recent 100 year bond sale, those reaching for yield without considering credit quality will be up a river with a paddle and no boat!

Bond Market’s Dip Didn’t Hit $4.5 Billion Illinois Sale
October 25, 2017

The bond-market drop didn’t diminish demand in Illinois’s biggest debt sale in more than a decade.

As the state marketed $4.5 billion of bonds Wednesday, securities due November 2028 sold at a preliminary yield of 3.77 percent, according to two people with knowledge of the pricing who requested anonymity because the yields aren’t final. That is repriced from the 3.74 percent offered earlier and is slightly lower than the 3.78 percent yield for the November 2029 portion of last week’s $1.5 billion deal, even though bond prices have slid since then.

Investors said the yields are alluring, with benchmark 11-year tax-exempt debt paying about 2.1 percent.

“The issuer still offers a tremendous amount of yield in a pretty yield-starved environment,” said Gabriel Diederich, fixed income portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management, which holds $41 billion in municipal bonds, including those issued by Illinois. “Outside of this little supply hump here with this deal, there really hasn’t been much muni issuance before this or likely in the weeks ahead.”

The deal comes after Illinois avoided becoming the first junk-rated state because lawmakers overrode Governor Bruce Rauner’s veto of tax hikes to end a two-year budget impasse in July. The proceeds from Wednesday’s deal, as well as the borrowing last week, will pay down $16.6 billion of unpaid bills that piled up during the budget stalemate.

The offering is the state’s biggest since 2003 and the largest offering of municipal bonds since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

I can still remember the “story” circulating in the summer of 1987 like it was yesterday, “the Japanese have $200 billion ready to come into the market” …when in fact cash levels were at record lows. Turn this chart upside down and match up the dates with market peaks and troughs, it is telling you something very important!

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Mutual Fund Cash Hits All Time Lows
October 25, 2017

With the market now deep in what BofA has called a “Icarus Rally” melt-up phase, it is not surprising that retail investor cash levels are among the lowest ever as Joe Sixpack scrambles – as he always did just before the market crashes – to buy everything that institutions have to sell (and as we showed last week, they have a lot to sell). Recall that in its Q2 earnings call, discount retail brokerage Schwab confirmed that retail cash levels are near the lowest ever:

Now, it’s clear that clients are highly engaged in the markets, we have cash being aggressively invested into the equity market, as the market has climbed. By the end of the second quarter, cash levels for our clients had fallen to about 11.5% of assets overall, now, that’s a level that we’ve only seen one time since the market began its recovery in the spring of 2009.

And while low and mid-level retail “traders” may be all in, what about high net worth/private clients? We presented the answer after last week’s Morgan Stanley earnings call:

Question: Hey good morning. Maybe just on the Wealth Management side, you guys had very good growth, sequential growth in deposits. There’s been some discussion in the industry about kind of a pricing pressure. Can you discuss where you saw the positive rates in Wealth Management business and how you’re able to track, I think, about $10 billion sequentially on deposit franchise?

Answer: Sure. I think, as you recall, we’ve been talking about our deposit deployment strategy for quite sometime, and we’ve been investing excess liquidity into our loan product over the last several years. In the beginning of the year, we told you that, that trend would come to an end. We did see that this year. It happened a bit sooner than we anticipated as we saw more cash go into the markets, particularly the equity markets, as those markets rose around the world. And we’ve seen cash in our clients’ accounts at its lowest level.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Well, at least we know for sure they “understood” the word TREASON. I wonder if they will still understand?

Flashback: How The Media Went Hysterical Over Don Jr.’S Willingness To Accept Russian Dirt On Hillary
October 25, 2017

he Washington Post’s blockbuster report that the Hillary Clinton campaign, in partnership with the DNC, hired the firm that utilized gossip from various unnamed Russian government officials to create the so-called Trump Dossier, marks a key turning point into the investigation into Russia’s attempts at influencing American politics.

The DNC not only accepted this second-hand, uncorroborated information, but actually sought it out, financed it, and disseminated it through Washington.

Now rewind the clock to July, after The New York Times reported that Donald Trump Jr. had been approached by a mysterious Russian lawyer with an offer of dirt on Hillary Clinton.

Trump Jr. accepted the meeting but by all accounts, the lawyer had misrepresented her intent, and no anti-Hillary intel was exchanged.

Nonetheless, the media and many prominent Democrats fell fit into a fit of hysteria.

Trump Jr. was quickly accused “treason” and “colluding” with a hostile actor. Some said he would certainly be going to jail.

CNN’s Jake Tapper said, “It’s rather momentous: This can’t just be — this can’t be dismissed as people out to get Donald J. Trump Jr. or fake news. This is evidence of willingness to commit collusion.”

The former chairwoman of the DNC, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, said the meeting fits the definition of collusion.

“Clearly, what we learned today is that the president’s son, his namesake, a senior advisor and someone who was in the top tier of the Trump campaign colluded, which is the classic dictionary definition of what that means,” Wasserman Schultz said. “There is no question what Donald Trump Jr. agreed to do — with relish, I might add — is meet with a lawyer who he believed was affiliated with the Russian government to assist his father’s campaign and collect dirt on Hillary Clinton. If that is not the definition of collusion, I don’t know what is.”

Clinton’s former running-mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, said the meeting could constitute treason.

“We are now beyond obstruction of justice in terms of what’s being investigated,” Kaine said. “This is moving into perjury, false statements and even potentially treason.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal also leveled charges of treason:

As a former prosecutor, my reaction was these e-mails are a textbook example and evidence of criminal intent. I can almost hear the closing arguments of the jury using “I love it,” repeating again and again, “I love it.” Those three words are going to haunt Donald Trump Jr. Because they are a clear signal that he is looking for information, dirt, on Hillary Clinton from the Russian government and expecting an agent of the Russian government to be providing it to him, and having the meeting showing, and again signalling, the Trump campaign is open for business. We will accept information no matter how it is obtained legally or illegally. And that is potentially a violation of the FBI, yes, treason, and it is potentially a violation of the prohibitions of defrauding the government through conspiracy, against cyber fraud and abuse. There are a slew of statutes that may have been violated here.

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Posted at 11:05 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Do you have a short wave radio and like to test it? Here is your chance!

Bill

Hi Bill,

I’m a licensed ham radio operator as a hobby. This article pop up on my radar and thought you may like to know about….

Communications Interoperability Training with Amateur Radio Community Set
October 24, 2017

Elements of the US Department of Defense (DOD) will conduct a “communications interoperability” training exercise November 4-6, once again simulating a “very bad day” scenario. Amateur Radio and MARS organizations will take part.

“This exercise will begin with a national massive coronal mass ejection event which will impact the national power grid as well as all forms of traditional communication, including landline telephone, cellphone, satellite, and Internet connectivity,” Army MARS Program Manager Paul English, WD8DBY, explained in an announcement.

During the exercise, a designated DOD Headquarters entity will request county-by-county status reports for the 3,143 US counties and county equivalents, in order to gain situational awareness and to determine the extent of impact of the scenario. Army and Air Force MARS organizations will work in conjunction with the Amateur Radio community, primarily on the 60-meter interoperability channels as well as on HF NVIS frequencies and local VHF and UHF, non-Internet linked Amateur Radio repeaters.

Again this year, a military station on the east coast and the Fort Huachuca, Arizona, HF station will conduct a high-power broadcast on 60-meter channel 1 (5330.5 kHz) on Saturday from 0300 to 0315 UTC. New this year will be an informational broadcast on Sunday, on 13,483.5 kHz USB from 1600 to 1615 UTC. Amateur Radio operators should monitor these broadcasts for more information about the exercise and how they can participate in this communications exercise, English said.

“We want to continue building on the outstanding cooperative working relationship with the ARRL and the Amateur Radio community,” English said. “We want to expand the use of the 60-meter interop channels between the military and amateur community for emergency communications, and we hope the Amateur Radio community will give us some good feedback on the use of both the 5-MHz interop and the new 13-MHz broadcast channels as a means of information dissemination during a very bad day scenario.

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Wolfgang with a very valid point!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

Have you read this?

Simple but interesting.

“Once gold became money, the price of goods became expressed in gold not in other elements – nickel, zinc, lead, etc. With the proliferation of crypto currencies, there will be a myriad of different price ratios for each good. There will be a Bitcoin price for a car, an Ethereum price for a car, a Dogecoin price of a car, and so on. This is the antithesis of the purpose of money – one unit of account that reflect prices for all commodities as Rothbard shows:”

“Thus, Bitcoin’s “price” is not in terms of its original commodity price, but its price is in terms of dollars, Euros, yuan, etc. In the dollar’s case, it was at one time linked to gold, but has since been severed from it while Bitcoin has had no such relationship.

Crypto currencies, therefore, directly violate one of the main principles of monetary theory. The vast array of digital money, all with unique price ratios (to say the least of their volatility), would make economic calculation and rational planning next to impossible.”

Of course, Cryptos are nothing more than another casino game offered to a speculative public. Some will make money, while some will lose. And the House (funny how nobody knows yet who they are) will always win.

Remember to old saw: “Hey buddy, wanna buy a bridge?”

No paperwork, no deed, just the salesman’s word ….. and your money.

That’s Crypto currencies to me.

I’m supposed to take someone’s word that I now own something viable. While they have my very “real” money.

Remember the movie

The devil (Al Pacino) said to Keanu Reeves that God was a jokester. Always toying with mankind:

-Look, but don’t touch

-Touch, but don’t taste.

-Taste, but don’t swallow

Somehow I get the feeling there’s a similar linkage to Crypto currencies. Almost like the bucket shops in Livermore’s day: gimme your money and you trust me that own the stock.

Hell, even in the Tulip Mania, before it collapsed in 1637, you got to hold your tulips!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Is Bitcoin A Tower Of Monetary Babel?
October 18, 2017

Despite their meteoric rise as speculative “assets,” there are fundamental economic reasons why they will never act as a general medium of exchange despite the wild enthusiasm for them by the crypto-currency cultists.

Money – a general medium of exchange – is the most marketable (exchangeable) commodity in an economy. As a good, money is not sought after for its direct use – to satisfy individual wants – but to satisfy wants indirectly through exchange for other goods. Over time, one good becomes money since it possesses qualities superior to all other goods as a money. When gold became demanded not for its “use value,” but for its “exchange value,” it became a general medium of exchange – money.

As a consumer good, gold possessed a value or a “price” prior to it becoming a money, as the eminent monetary theorist Murray Rothbard explains:

…embedded in the demand for money is knowledge of the money-prices of the immediate past; in contrast to directly-used consumers’ or producers’ goods, money must have pre-existing prices on which to ground a demand.

But the only way this can happen is by beginning with a useful commodity under barter, and then adding demand for a medium to the previous demand for direct use (e.g., for ornaments in the case of gold.)*

Thus, Bitcoin’s “price” is not in terms of its original commodity price, but its price is in terms of dollars, Euros, yuan, etc. In the dollar’s case, it was at one time linked to gold, but has since been severed from it while Bitcoin has had no such relationship.

Once money is established, then prices are expressed in terms of it and thus economic calculation can rationally take place and the division of labor and specialization can be expanded. Rothbard continues:

The establishment of money conveys another great benefit. Since all exchanges are made in money, all the exchange-ratios are expressed in money, and so people can now compare the market worth of each good to that of every other good.**

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Jim/Bill,

No dates needed,

No nationality needed,

And most importantly…..no Blockchain needed.

Gold in its simplicity is UNIVERSAL and ETERNAL.

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Rest in Peace with your wealth.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yes it is Wolfgang!

Bill

Our buddy Werner has an excellent point!

Bill

Bill,

All the gold ever mined in the world has a value of about 7 trillion on $1,275 spot roughly, correct?

Werner-

BILL HOLTER

yes, I believe maybe just slightly less at current price, $6. something trillion?

Bill,

Crazy when the Fed’s balance sheet alone is 4.5 trillion, with over 20 trillion printed from the financial crisis, on top of ALL the other debt.

Thanks my friend..

Werner-

Bill Holter

Excellent point Werner, I didn’t know where you were going with this but arrived at a very enlightening point!

-Picture below published when Gold was roughly $1,650 an ounce-

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JB,

Ever wonder why ALL of these revelations are being disclosed rapid fire and at the same time? I assure you it is not by coincidence! The only question now is how much truth can we handle?

Bill

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Posted at 11:01 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

This is part of a memo from a company (I’ll call it XYZ) that a good friend of mine works for:

“When we reviewed our current insurance with Axxxx this year, we realized that we needed to find a better solution. XYZ has absorbed the health insurance premium rate increases for the last 2 years (ranging from 11-18%), and we will not be able to continue to absorb these increases going forward. If we stayed with Aetna, the cost increases would have to be passed along to the employees, which could be as high as 18-25% per year. “

And there is no inflation?

We’re talking mega numbers here!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

News Bites

‘Real’ Gold Bull Market Is Coming, It Just Needs This First – Pierre Lassonde
October 23, 2017

(Kitco News) – Gold prices will only go up, rising as high as $1,400 next year, but the “real” bull market won’t get going until it sees an actual pickup in inflation, said mining magnate Pierre Lassonde.

“For gold to get into the next real bull market we need signs of inflation. So far we haven’t seen them,” the chairman of Franco-Nevada told German newspaper Finanz and Wirtschaft.

“The Federal Reserve and other central banks have piled up huge reserves. But there is no inflation because the money is sitting within the banks and they are not lending it. Therefore, you don’t get a multiplier effect.”

But, inflation could accelerate soon enough, with both reconstruction following the damage caused by hurricanes Irma and Harvey in the U.S. as well as a recovery in Europe moving the needle in the right direction, he said.

This year, Lassonde sees prices remaining between the $1,250-1,350 range and then rising up to $1,400 an ounce next year.

The only direction gold prices are likely to go is up, Lassonde noted in the interview, warning that production continues to decline, putting upward pressure on the yellow metal.

“If you look at the last 15 years, we found only very few 15 million ounce deposits. So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know. We do not have those ore bodies in sight,” he said.

One of the reasons for that was that not enough money is being dedicated to exploration, Lassonde highlighted.

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Courtesy of CIGA GG

Jim

10Y Treasury Yields Just Did Something Every Bond Bear Was Waiting For
|October 24, 2017

10Y Treasury yields just crossed 2017’s Maginot Line of 2.40% – the highest in six months…

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Following Jeff Gundlach’s bearish bond perspective, and the signals from the commodity/reflation markets…

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Jim/Bill,

Verrrrry Interesting!

Ya Wolfgang, but who owns the physical silver, or at least thinks they do?

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Actually, for JPM…..not so stupid.

For Scotiabank…….yes!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

“When it comes to the 8 largest concentrated shorts in COMEX silver and gold, JPMorgan, alone, is protected against financial ruin whenever silver prices explode due to its massive physical silver position. I see no evidence that any other entity has accumulated enough physical silver. Because JPM was so far ahead of the pack in recognizing that silver will soar in the future and began buying as much as it could starting six and a half years ago, it’s too late for the 7 others to jump onto the buy side now. That’s because such buying would set off a price spiral – about the very last thing a big short would want. JPMorgan has played this masterfully.”

When JPM took over Bear Stearns and inherited its massive silver short position back in 2008, it didn’t really close it out. From what I’ve read, it still has it. BUT…………….it has been accumulating massive amounts of physical silver to offset those shorts. Now if they decide to cover those shorts (buying back the Comex contracts), silver will soar on their buying and they’ll make out like bandits with their physical silver holdings! This little fact is not mentioned in the article. Note the following:

JP Morgan Cornering Silver Bullion Market?
May 1, 2015

– Why is JP Morgan accumulating the biggest stockpile of physical silver in history?
– Legendary silver analyst Ted Butler believes JP Morgan are in a position to corner silver market
– JP Morgan may be holding as much as 350 million ounces of physical silver
– JP Morgan realises the value of owning physical silver bullion today
– Silver at $16 today – Set to soar to over $50 again

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Scotiamocatta Sale Is The Most Significant Event To Happen In Silver Since 2008
October 24, 2017

Ted Butler says the ScotiaBank news may be on par with the JP Morgan take-over of Bear Stearns in 2008. Here’s why…

News reports this week indicated that the Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank), Canada’s third largest bank, had put its precious metals operation, ScotiaMocatta, up for sale. Various sources said the unit had been for sale for a year or so and it was thought or hoped that Chinese interests might buy the business. It was also reported that the Bank of Nova Scotia would shrink the unit if no buyer could be found. The impetus for the sale was said to be a scandal involving smuggled gold from South America to the US. Somewhat ironic, and interesting, was that the sale “listing” agent was none other than JPMorgan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-scotiabank-gold/scotiabank-mulls-sale-of-gold-trading-unit-sources-idUSKBN1CN2CN

I believe there is more to this story than meets the eye and it involves the ongoing gold and silver price manipulation. About the only thing I find suspect in the news accounts is the motive for the sale. I was aware of the smuggling story, but ScotiaMocatta didn’t seem particularly exposed in this matter. I accept that the unit is up for sale, just not the motivation behind the sale. If my reasoning is correct, this could be a very significant development in the ongoing silver and gold price manipulation on the COMEX; on a par with JPMorgan taking over Bear Stearns in March 2008; which, in my opinion, was the most significant event in the silver market in decades.

Truth be told, I could never figure out why a leading Canadian bank would even want to buy and run a business not remotely in keeping with its core banking businesses – it was like trying to put a square peg in a round hole. The Bank of Nova Scotia has roughly 90,000 employees, whereas the ScotiaMocatta unit has less than 200 employees and accounts for a tiny fraction of the bank’s $2 billion quarterly profits.

I think the Bank of Nova Scotia’s real motivation for seeking to offload its ScotiaMocatta precious metals unit after 20 years of ownership is liability. It’s the fear of what is to become of a major short seller in silver (and gold) on the COMEX. By every count, ScotiaMocatta is one of the 7 potential dead men walking who hold large concentrated short positions. It’s not some alleged smuggling ring that is motivating the bank to dump the unit. The only wonder is what took the bank so long to come to this conclusion.

When it comes to the 8 largest concentrated shorts in COMEX silver and gold, JPMorgan, alone, is protected against financial ruin whenever silver prices explode due to its massive physical silver position. I see no evidence that any other entity has accumulated enough physical silver. Because JPM was so far ahead of the pack in recognizing that silver will soar in the future and began buying as much as it could starting six and a half years ago, it’s too late for the 7 others to jump onto the buy side now. That’s because such buying would set off a price spiral – about the very last thing a big short would want. JPMorgan has played this masterfully.

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CIGA Werner checks in with some history on hyperinflation. Sound familiar?

Bill

Here are some of the quotes about the early stages of Germany’s hyperinflation (source: “Dying of Money”). This is very similar to what we’re seeing in our central bank-driven bubble economy.

In the early stages, the newly-printed money still has value, so if the money supply rises 50%, it’s like a 50% jump in wealth…that is, until the currency starts to lose value.

“Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out. Practically all of this vanished after the inflation blew itself out. Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany’s wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes, and the effort expended in simply buying and selling the paper titles to wealth was enormous. Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market. The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork, even with greatly swollen staffs of back-office employees, and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog.” “Dying of Money”

Most people think that currency death or hyperinflation is total hell from the start, but it actually starts out as a “feel good” economic boom. The newly printed money stimulates the economy, stock market, property, etc…just like we saw with QE.

“Prices were steady” – what does that sound like? How about the low inflation that everyone is worrying and confused about?

“A few years before, in 1920 and 1921, Germany had enjoyed a remarkable prosperity envied by the rest of the world. Prices were steady, business was humming, everyone was working, the stock market was skyrocketing. The Germans were swimming in easy money. Within the year, they were drowning in it.” “Dying of Money”

Everyone is worried and puzzled by inequality since the Great Recession. Much of that is caused by QE boosting the stock, bond, and property prices of the rich. Guess what? The same thing happened in the early stages of Germany’s hyperinflation as well.

“Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared. Although unemployment became virtually nonexistent and many of the workers were able to keep up with inflation through their unions, their bargaining, and their cost-of-living escalator clauses, other workers fell behind the rising cost of living into real poverty. Salaried and white collar workers lost ground in the same way.” “Dying of Money”

Posted at 11:00 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

$2 trillion short bet on “volatility”? Don’t bet on it. The best quote in this article is “Volatility isn’t broken, the market is”!

In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken…The Market Is”
October 21, 2017

The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and is an important icon in the esoteric tradition of Alchemy. Egyptian mystics first derived the symbol from a realphenomenon in nature. In extreme heat a snake,unable to self-regulateitsbody temperature,will experience an out-of-control spike in its metabolism. In a state of mania, the snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from its prey,and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing until it perishes. In nature and markets, when randomness self-organizes into too perfect symmetry, order becomes the source of chaos.

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The Ouroboros is a metaphor for the financial alchemy driving the modern Bear Market in Fear.Volatility across asset classes is at multi-generational lows. A dangerous feedback loop now exists between ultra-low interest rates, debt expansion, asset volatility, and financial engineering that allocates risk based on that volatility. In this self-reflexive loop volatility can reinforce itself both lower and higher. In a market where stocks and bonds are both overvalued, financial alchemy is the only way to feed our global hunger for yield, until it kills the very system it is nourishing.

The Global Short Volatility trade now represents an estimated $2+ trillion in financial engineering strategies that simultaneously exert influence over, and are influenced by, stock market volatility. We broadly define the short volatility trade as any financial strategy that relies on the assumption of market stability to generate returns, while using volatility itself as an input for risk taking. Many popular institutional investment strategies, even if they are not explicitly shorting derivatives, generate excess returns from the same implicit risk factors as a portfolio of short optionality, and contain hidden fragility. 

Volatility is now an input for risk taking and the source of excess returns in the absence of value.Lower volatility is feeding into even lower volatility, in a self-perpetuating cycle, pushing variance to the zero bound. To the uninitiated this appears to be a magical formula to transmute ether into gold… volatility into riches… however financial alchemy is deceptive. Like a snake blind to the fact it is devouring its own body, the same factors that appear stabilizing can reverse into chaos. The danger is that the multi-trillion-dollar short volatility trade, in all its forms, will contribute to a violent feedback loop of higher volatility resulting in a hyper-crash. At that point the snake will die and there is no theoretical limit to how high volatility could go.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Are you ready?

Please Make Sure All Your Preps Are Topped Off And Accounted For-Check And Recheck-Acquire What You Need Asap- Note Water And Canned Goods, Specifically Mentioned
October 24, 2017

A friend of mine sent me a copy of a text he received from a friend in the Grocery Supply Industry in the Springfield, MO area. Here is a copy of that text:

“Just had a brief conversation with a friend. His son works at AG which is a grocery supply warehousing company. His boss said the government calledthem Friday afternoon and told them to stock up on water and canned goods.

Did not give a reason. They said in the next two weeks, to stock supplies of water and canned goods.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Considering the source I would contend “fake news”, but it actually sounds about right?

National Security

Clinton Campaign, DNC Paid For Research That Led To Russia Dossier
October 24, 2017

The Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee helped fund research that resulted in a now-famous dossier containing allegations about President Trump’s connections to Russia and possible coordination between his campaign and the Kremlin, people familiar with the matter said.

Marc E. Elias, a lawyer representing the Clinton campaign and the DNC, retained Fusion GPS, a Washington firm, to conduct the research.

After that, Fusion GPS hired dossier author Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer with ties to the FBI and the U.S. intelligence community, according to those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Elias and his law firm, Perkins Coie, retained the firm in April 2016 on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the DNC. Before that agreement, Fusion GPS’s research into Trump was funded by a still unknown Republican client during the GOP primary.

The Clinton campaign and the DNC, through the law firm, continued to fund Fusion GPS’s research through the end of October 2016, days before Election Day.

Fusion GPS gave Steele’s reports and other research documents to Elias, the people familiar with the matter said. It is unclear how or how much of that information was shared with the campaign and DNC, and who in those organizations was aware of the roles of Fusion GPS and Steele. One person close to the matter said the campaign and the DNC were not informed of Fusion GPS’s role by the law firm.

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