Posted at 2:36 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

We have been harping on the question “are you prepared?” for years. We have asked if you were prepared financially, mentally, physically, and with your maker? The potential boogeyman as we suggested could come from anywhere or any angle but the end result would affect the economy and thus finance (credit) and would then spill over socially.

I have to admit, a “pandemic” was low on my list of possible sparks, but after thinking it through, a pandemic is a financial disaster. Yes it is a human disaster and many will die, but the odds of dying from the virus are and will remain quite low. The real problem is what the human response will be. I say this because we live in a world of just in time inventory AND production. We also live in a financial world with more debt and financial leverage (and thus monthly debt service) than ever before. So much so that even a small hiccup (which this does not appear to be) where business slows and contracts will be enough to quickly default some credits. The problem is not the initial defaults, rather, it is the “contagion” throughout the system because our world is so inter connected (globalism).

We saw this back in 2008 where one entity (Lehman) going down had the ability to torpedo the entire system if it were not for $10’s of trillions mobilized from the central banks. Remember, back then “liquidity” was shoved into the system so the banking system could withstand the shock of a small handful (but large) of upside down institutions. I would use the analogy that 2008 was a snapshot event which lead to the motion picture of what they called “recovery”…expansion never came. Today is different, because back then the central banks and sovereign treasuries had the ability to print/borrow in an effort to reflate…which they have continually done since then. Now, in a world with a debt to GDP ratio of 332%, who has the ability to step up and reflate?

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Posted at 9:55 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

     The precious metals algo’s are doing their very best to tell you there is nothing to worry about with Gold trading at $1,583.90 down $4 and recovering after being knocked down to $1,577.70 which occurred only after Gold spiked at the open, reaching $1,598.50, that is before the calming down was applied. Silver is, of course, leading the calming with its trade at $17.805 down 20.7 cents after hitting a low of $17.705 with the opening spiked high at $18.125. The US Dollar is all the rage this morning with its trade up 29.2 points at 97.505, close to the high at 97.550 with the low to beat at 97.230. Of course, all of this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, the first day of England’s divorce from a very bad union, and the 49ers beating that took place after a rather pathetic Hollywood halftime show with the worst commercials ever.

     Our emerging markets currency watch is producing mostly higher precious metal prices. In Venezuela Gold is trading at 15,819.20 Bolivar proving a gain of 3.99 over the weekend with Silver at 177.827 showing a loss of 0.20 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold’s value at 95,445.00 showing the nobel metal gaining 197.47 A-Pesos with Silver trading at 1,073.00 Peso’s, a gain of 0.77. Gold, in Turkey, now costs 9,478.59 Lira showing a gain of 4.78 with Silver at 106.548 Lira, losing 0.099 of a T-Lira since Friday’s early morning post.

      Today is the start of the February Deliveries for precious metals with the demand count for Silver at 121 fully paid for contracts (5,000 ounces each) waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 4 up on the board with a trading range between $17.80 and $17.785 with the last trade, of course, being the lower price giving the Resolute buyer an 18.7 cent discount from Friday’s early morning post. Silver’s Overall Open Interest remains elevated and gained another 228 more shorts to stay the price from Friday with a total count of 229,479 Overnighters, as we wait to find out what else was needed to calm things down at the Comex today.

      February Gold Delivery Demands now stand at 4,979 fully paid for contracts (100 ounces each) waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 770 up on the board with its trading range between $1,593.30 and $1,573.50 with the last trade close to the low at $1,576.50, down $6.40. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now stands at 679,118 Overnighters, down sharply from last month’s life of contract paper high but still highly elevated as we wait for the last bars inside Comex to leave.

China is accusing the US of ‘inciting panic’ over the Coronavirus outbreak that happened in their country, apparently blaming everyone else for exposing how they treat their people, who are posting underground videos that go against the government sanctioned story, and at the same time, supplying more newly printed cash in an Emergency PBOC infusion in “remain calm” fashion. Then its neighbor India, did the same, as it announced a $40 Billion Emergency Fiscal Injection as its economy plunges with the Indian government starting an investigation against China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology. Like we mentioned last week, the truth is somewhere in the middle and hopefully nowhere near the worst-case scenario.

      The Shanghai Exchange did open after the delay and thankfully so too. The “Just In Time Supply System” that the entire planets population is now under, has not been challenged since it was introduced. That is until this virus got out and now, we are hearing two sides of the story and very far apart from each other. One from the leadership, the other from their population stuck in place and forced to live with what is available without the JIT supplies or ways of getting supplies into Wuhan. If it’s really that bad why not do airdrops?

      “Remain Calm” is this morning’s start up story, with both the markets and media pointing the way. Also noted, the global printing never seems to stop. Timing is everything and with that, we’re all given more time to get supplied in case the lie is further from the communist government’s side and not the people forced to stay in place. Keep the attitude’s positive, have smile in place no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 10:41 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts says she is less worried about the coronavirus and more worried about what happens to China’s economy. Fitts explains, “Whatever is going on, it is going to slow down the Chinese economy. If China slows down a lot, it is going to put them in a dollar bear trap. The thing that kept the global economy going after the bailouts were the Chinese, and the Chinese did that by levering. A lot of that debt is dollar based. So, now if their income shrinks, especially after the trade war with the U.S. administration, they are going to be in a dollar trap. That means it’s (dollar) going to be stronger than if this would not have happened.”  In short, China will need dollars to pay debt, supporting the dollar.

Fitts goes on to say, “From everything I have heard so far . . . the virus is not my concern for the Western world. My concern is the vaccine. So, I am extremely concerned about Nano technology and vaccine injury. The process to push for vaccine mandates has been very extreme. . . . Why are we seeing such a heavy push for heavy schedules of vaccines and mandates for vaccines, which is in violation of the Nuremberg code and the U.S. Constitution?”

Fitts thinks that big tech and big government are seeking tighter and tighter control through technology and cloud computing. Fitts says, “You are going to have Microsoft, Amazon and the New York Fed banks operating and controlling a huge amount of data for the U.S. government. That means you can re-engineer the entire federal government at a very high speed. Imagine getting your Social Security check getting deposited into your Amazon account where you are restricted on what you can and cannot buy. . . . We are putting into place the technology where the control that can be done is beyond the imagination of most people.”

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Posted at 10:40 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

One must wonder what the “over/under” would be for the life expectancy of the president?

Is Hillary Clinton Angling To Become Vice President?
February 1, 2020

A number of people in politics, the media and elsewhere are openly speculating that if Democrats wind up with a “brokered convention,” with no strong or viable nominee evident, Hillary Clinton might enter the arena as the “savior” who could unite the delegates and go on to defeat President Donald Trump.

Clinton herself seemed to throw shade at that theory during an interview with Variety at the Sundance Film Festival. When asked about the “urge” to beat Trump, the former Democratic nominee said, “Yeah. I certainly feel the urge because I feel the 2016 election was a really odd time and an odd outcome. And the more we learn, the more that seems to be the case. But I’m going to support the people who are running now and do everything I can to help elect the Democratic nominee.”

Several politically savvy Democrats have told me that “everything” may be a much more plausible and powerful scenario.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

And California is worried about plastic bags and straws…?

Japan Panel Recommends Ocean Release For Contaminated Fukushima Water
January 31, 2020

TOKYO (Reuters) – A panel of experts advising Japan’s government on a disposal method for radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant on Friday recommended releasing it into the ocean, a move likely to alarm neighboring countries.

The panel under the industry ministry came to the conclusion after narrowing the choice to either releasing the contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean or letting it evaporate – and opted for the former. Based on past practice it is likely the government will accept the recommendation.

The build-up of contaminated water at Fukushima has been a sticking point in the clean-up, which is likely to last decades, especially as the Olympics are due to be held in Tokyo this summer with some events less than 60 km (35 miles) from the wrecked plant.

Neighboring South Korea has retained a ban on imports of seafood from Japan’s Fukushima region imposed after the nuclear disaster and summoned a senior Japanese embassy official last year to explain how the Fukushima water would be dealt with.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A very long but excellent read from Paul Mylchreest. If you truly want to understand the “fractional reserve” basis of the LBMA, this is your primer!

Gold: Open Letter to LBMA Board of Directors
January 29, 2020

[PDF available here]

Posted at 12:41 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Umm, just a question or two? We’d love to hear their “revenue” plans, or even their plans for breakfast tomorrow? Not trying to be hard hearted, but these people rely on food assistance but want to form a government and make laws? Please pinch me or wake me up, I never saw this coming!

Homeless Community At East Austin Camp Creates Committee ‘For The Homeless, Run By The Homeless’
January 30, 2020

AUSTIN, Texas – The homeless community at a state-sanctioned campground in East Austin is organizing into their own town.

So far, they’ve selected seven members to help bring in donations and put together community events.

The once mostly empty lot off U.S. 183 and Montopolis in East Austin has become home to more than 100 people without another place to go.

“We give everybody a chance. We don’t judge your past history or nothing like that. We give everybody a chance,” said Cori Roberts, the secretary of the committee.

Once referred to as “Camp Abbott” because the governor opened the state-owned land to the homeless population, people there are now calling it something else.

“It’s called ‘Camp R.A.T.T.’ Responsible Adult Transition Town. For the homeless, run by the homeless,” Roberts said.

Like every town, Camp R.A.T.T. now has its own list of leaders.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

It seems the bond market agrees with this?

Chicago PMI Plunges To Lowest In 4 Years
January 31, 2020

After slumping into year-end, Regional Fed surveys have (surprisingly) exploded higher this month with Richmond and Philly surveys spiking almost by the most on record.

Today’s Chicago PMI was expected to follow suit – though less excitedly – with a modest gain but instead it missed massively, plunging to its lowest since Dec 2015 – printing 42.9 vs 48.9 expectations.

bfm7218

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Being prepared is not entirely for financial reasons.

How Bad Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors
January 31, 2020

As the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread across China, a flurry of early research is drawing a clearer picture of how the pathogen behaves and the key factors that will determine whether it can be contained.

How contagious is the virus?

It seems moderately infectious, similar to SARS.

How deadly is the virus?

It’s hard to know yet. But the fatality rate is probably less than 3 percent, much less than SARS.

How long does it take to show symptoms?

Possibly between 2 to 14 days, allowing the illness to go undetected.

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Posted at 10:09 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

       Gold did wonderful during yesterday’s trade, yet before the very restart of the night session, Gold was pushed lower than the Comex close. Comex uses the 10:20 am pst price as a closing number as ICE (International Commodity Exchange) closes much later in the day at 3 pm pst. That being said, Comex’s April Gold CLOSING price was set at $1,589.20, up $13.20 yet ICE’s last trade for yesterday is at $1,578.70 taking the price down $10.50 off the Comex close. So, when the markets reopened for the night trade, people who do not know this trick, would think something negative happened. Now, let’s look at what happened since.

      April Gold is now trading at $1,583.50, down $5.70 from the Comex close yet up from the last trade in the continuing saga of “prices are not manipulated”. The high so far is $1,586.60 with the low at $1,575.00. Silver did the same, closed up strong on Comex, yet brought back down lower after that closing price was posted, when the “after the Comex close” shorts stepped in with March Silver’s price at $17.825, down 16.7 cents from the Comex close yet up ½ penny from the ICE close. All this was done inside a trading range between $17.895 and $17.790. The US Dollar doesn’t seem to suffer like precious metals (since the G7 currencies close at 12pm pst) with its trade down 10.1 points from the close with its high at 97.790 a low of 97.595 with the current price at 97.610. Of course all of this was done already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, after Carter Page Sues DNC Over the fake Steele Dossier, the Brexit day of relief, and as we wait to see how many more coronavirus infections were spread out after 5 million Wuhanese flew out to see family before their holiday and, as we wait for more info on their extended market shut down.

      Our emerging markets currency watch on precious metals is split, with Gold’s price in Venezuela now at 15,815.21 Bolivar showing a loss of 19.97 with Silver at 178.027 Bolivar showing a gain of 0.899. In Argentina, Gold’s price is now at 95,257.53 Peso’s proving a loss of 138.39 overnight with Silver at 1,072.23 Peso’s giving those that hold a gain of 5.19. The Turkish Lira has Gold priced at 9,473.81 Lira losing 14.14 over the past 24 hours with Silver at 106.647, a gain of 0.516. 

      February Silver’s First Notice Day is here meaning all speculators have to leave this month’s contract or have 100% of the margin to hold the trade with the count at 221, with a Volume of 1, and no price for that one lot order. Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained 1,118 more shorts to stay the price (were these added after the Comex close?) with the count now at 229,251 Overnighters.

      February Gold’s delivery count is now at 8,191 dropping 25,759 contracts as we wait for Monday’s delivery count and as we consider the changes in Deliveries and Positions Limits recently sent in from above (CFTC). Not surprising, is the example in the letter using all grains and a single sentence regarding precious metals, yet I loved the “silver bullet” descriptor used and, in a way, saying there is more needed to control the manipulation monster within. I would love for this to have a secondary meaning for a certain criminal element currently under investigation.

      The Coronavirus, that came out of nowhere, has issues on many sides, including the reporting of it all. The last time a communist country told the world nothing was wrong, we got Chernobyl. Russia’s Communist party collapsed after that event because everyone in Russia and abroad, all of a sudden, lost absolute faith in their Government and the media reports stating all was well while at the same time a Radioactive Cloud started sweeping across foreign lands. It may not be radioactivity this time, but the leadership is exactly the same. I think it’s safe to consider not only the “official” words, but also the words coming out from below. the people in the mix that are suffering right now because they did not do the Boy Scout Hedge (always be prepared).

      Ironically the Boy Scout Hedge is something we all have discussed in different ways like holding precious metals as the reset may be upon us and to have enough food stored at home to last a few months in case the “Just In Time Delivery System” gets shut down. This is not a gloat post; this is a head’s up for those that are ill prepared and a pat on the back for those that have Boy Scouted their future.

      Please offer up a prayer for those in harms way. It’s proper and human to do so. Please Please Please consider Boy Scouting your future if you haven’t already. Enjoy your weekend, keep a smile on your face and a positive attitude in your head no matter what, and as always…

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

Posted at 10:22 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

If you like math, here is some REALLY SCARY math for you!

U.S. National Debt Will Rise to 98% of GDP by 2030, CBO Projects
January 28, 2020

WASHINGTON—The national debt and sustained federal budget deficits will hit the highest levels since World War II over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected on Tuesday, following multiple rounds of tax cuts and continued increases in federal spending.

The government will spend $1 trillion more than it collects in 2020 and deficits will reach or exceed that threshold every year for the foreseeable future. As a share of gross domestic product, the deficit will be at least 4.3% every year through 2030.

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Posted at 10:01 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,

     Gold has turned sharply higher the day after the January Deliveries closed out with April Gold now at $1,585.50, up $9.50 after reaching $1,588.00 with the low at $1,580.00. To me, Silver is leading this mornings push thru the “fix” with the March contract at $17.735, up 24.8 cents and close to the high at $17.764 with the ridiculous low of $17.52. The US Dollar is still up there in purchasing power with the value pegged at 97.74, down 7.9 points and close to the low at 97.725 with the high at 97.91. Of course, all of this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, the Brexit exit, and after Russia closes the Great Wall between itself and China, an Italian cruise liner with 6,000 people on board being quarantined, oh yeah, and after the FOMC meeting in which everything they claim, is rosy and wonderful (for those that print and do not earn).

      Our emerging markets currency watch really shows how volatile things get when currency print gets out of hand with Venezuela pricing Gold at 15,835.18 Bolivar, showing a gain of 95.88 overnight with Silver at 177.128 Bolivar regaining 2.596. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold’s value at 95,395.92 proving a gain of 699.40 Peso’s with Silver gaining 16.94 with its new price at 1,067.04 Peso’s. Over in Turkey, Gold’s value now rests at 9,487.95 Lira, gaining back 97.82 with Silver at 106.131 Lira, a regain of 2.017.

      Silver’s Resolute Buyer stepped in on the last day of January Deliveries and added another 13 purchases into the delivery system with the very last single lot order, out of that 13-lot purchase, at the low $17.37 when the other 12 traded higher, up to $17.45. Sure, the order is small, but it adds to the demands that go against the supply. February Silver Deliveries start in earnest on Monday with today’s Open Interest at 235 with a Volume of 16 so far with a trading range at $17.54 (high/low/last) still showing a possible starting order of 1,175,000 ounces of Silver. Not a bad start at all for a cereal month delivery.

      February Gold’s Open Interest is now at 33,950 Obligations proving a reduction of 68,177 Overnighters with another day or two to go in order to remove the trader’s element from the deliveries. The current Gold count leaves a hefty 3,395,000 Ounce starting order in a “delivery” month which is considered the “a dominant” purchase month while cereal months get ignored by most writers (for now).

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest regained 3,751 short positions in order to keep Silver from fully reversing during yesterday’s trade bringing the total now to 228,133 Overnighters willing to stay in the trade. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now at 697,963 Overnighters showing another reduction of 20,953 Obligations as Gold regained all that was lost in price, amazingly during the Options Expiration and closing out of January’s deliveries.

      This last 3 days have been something else to observe. So much is going on it’s hard to keep up with everything that should have already affected the prices of precious metals, yet here we sit. Waiting, anticipating, and cogitating, on all the manipulating aspects, as the criminal element continues, at the same time it seems the recoveries are shallower, time wise. Maybe it means something this time. The Coronavirus is being touted as “Way Overblown”, then “horribly bad” as the videos are starting to show up that are truly scary! There is truth somewhere in the middle, regardless, right now, it pays to be prepared. As the videos claim, cities with millions of people, are shuttered and without preparations, forcing those that are in harm’s way to stay in harm’s way in order to keep the virus from spreading. Will people be shot at next in order to keep the spread from occurring? I pray for better times, yet am prepared for the worst, as we hope you are prepped as well.

      Prayers are truly in order at the same we keep that smile on our face and a positive attitude in the head, no matter what…Please do the same and as always…

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net