Posted at 3:15 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

JB,

It never occurred to either of these two knuckleheads that what they were doing…is in fact illegal!

Best,

Bill

Grassley Lays Down The Law, Formally Refers Avenatti And Swetnick To Justice Dept For Criminal Charges
October 25, 2018

Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley has formally referred creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti and his client Julie Swetnick to the Justice Department for a criminal investigation on the grounds they had made false statements about Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

During the justice’s confirmation hearings in late September and early October, the two trotted out what appeared at the time to be a wild conspiracy theory accusing him of having once participated in “gang rapes” while in high school decades ago. Based on information uncovered since then by the committee, Grassley is now confident this was indeed a false rape accusation.

In a letter addressed to Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director Christopher Wray, the committee chairman noted that Swetnick has a history of issuing false rape accusations and provided testimony from an ex-boyfriend as evidence.

More…

 

Courtesy of Dave.

Jim

“We Will Be At War With China In 15 Years” Predicts Former Commander Of U.S. Army In Europe
October 26, 2018

Days after U.S. warships made a provocative passage through the Taiwan Strait on Monday, further making already strained tensions between the Washington and Beijing  — currently in the midst of a trade war — even hotter, the former top commander of the US Army in Europe has predicted the United States and China will likely be at war in 15 years.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges made the bombshell and alarming comments at a Warsaw security forum on Wednesday where he urged European allies to do more in preparing their own defenses against Russia while Americans focus more on the Pacific.

Gen. Hodges said, according to the Military Times:

    I think in 15 years — it’s not inevitable, but it is a very strong likelihood — that we will be at war with China. The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat.

This statement is hugely remarkable in that it signifies the thesis has just left the domain of academic international relations theoreticians and has now become a guiding assumption of military commanders with years of experience on the ground.

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Bill/Dave,

Just now spotted the Reuters article. Been waiting on this for a long time. Nice timing too with G-20. Speaks for itself in the reserve status and seignorage of the US dollar. But also in the concerted effort to keep the US trade war from only affecting those that the US wants it to affect.

Albeit $30B is less than the $100B the US has with BOJ, $30B is a fairly large first step. And China swaps at about 3.35T RMB or about $500B equivalent is 65% greater than the Fed’s swap agreements total.

CIGA Kevin

China-Japan Sign Three-Year FX Swap Deal To Strengthen Financial Stability, Business Activity
October 25, 2018

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan and China on Friday signed a currency swap arrangement of up to $30 billion – the largest such bilateral deal concluded by Tokyo – to strengthen financial stability and spur business activity in both countries, the Bank of Japan said.

The arrangement, which takes effect on Friday and lasts until Oct. 25, 2021, will allow the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks for up to 200 billion yuan or 3.4 trillion yen ($30 billion), the BOJ said.

Earlier in the day, China and Japan signed a broad range of agreements on strengthening bilateral ties, pledging to step up cooperation in areas from finance and trade to innovation and securities listings.

More…

Posted at 10:20 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

They’re send a Batallion 800 men against 10,000 immigrants and growing!

They need a Division 10,000 to 15,000 men.

That war is lost from the get go.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

US Deploys 800 Troops To Southern Border As ‘Migrant Caravan’ Approaches: CNN
October 25, 2018

As Mexican authorities do little to stop the ‘migrant caravan’ from cross southern Mexico, Defense Secretary James Mattis is reportedly preparing to order an additional 800 troops to the southern border as soon as Thursday, CNN reported.

The order comes after President Trump threatened earlier this month to send troops to the border to stop the migrant caravan, which has swelled to more than 10,000, according to some reports.

Final details are reportedly being worked out, including where the troops will come from and where they will be stationed. For example, it’s unclear how many – if any – of the troops will be National Guard. According to CNN, they will mostly provide support services like building tents and running supplies for border patrol agents, who are still tasked with subduing illegal immigrants.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

 

Jim/Bill,

No mention of gold, but we all know damn well that when the Dollar does crash, there will be an automatic skyrocketing of gold prices

According to Schiff, the US national currency is set to meet with the worst losses along with the American standard of living.

“So, what you’ve got to do is get out of U.S. dollar assets. The dollar is going to be the biggest casualty along with the American standard of living,” he said,

Then there’s a matter of the deficit weighing heavily on the future of the Dollar:

“If the government is collecting less revenue, then the deficits are getting bigger and so the government has to borrow even more money, and that becomes an even bigger problem,” he said.

And we Emerging Markets blaming us for their travails, but a reversal appears to be in sight:

“…adding that foreign stock markets, especially emerging markets, currently depressed by the strong dollar would see a strong rise. “They are going to see a boom when the dollar weakens,” Schiff said.

It just seems like the whole world is waiting for the Dollar to get its upcommance.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Peter Schiff: The Dollar And Americans’ Standard Of Living Will Be “Biggest Casualties”
October 25, 2018

After the dramatic early drop, U.S. stocks recovered but still finished lower after a wild day on Wall Street. By the closing bell, the Dow was down 126 points, or 0.5 percent, recovering most of its early losses. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4 percent, while the S&P 500 shed 15 points, finishing 0.6 percent lower. Schiff urged people to be prepared for not only an economic crisis but a political crisis as well with the current administration likely to take the blame.

According to Schiff, the US national currency is set to meet with the worst losses along with the American standard of living. Although the Trump administration is to blame for the trade war that is already wreaking havoc on American’s wallets, Schiff says thepolitical crisis about to follow will be much worse.

    “So, what you’ve got to do is get out of U.S. dollar assets. The dollar is going to be the biggest casualty along with the American standard of living,” he said, adding that foreign stock markets, especially emerging markets, currently depressed by the strong dollar would see a strong rise. “They are going to see a boom when the dollar weakens,” Schiff said.

The U.S. household debt, which is about $15 trillion, represents a crucial issue for the standard of living in the country.  “Everybody is loaded up with debt, and it’s not like we began this monetary experiment without much debt. We had a lot of debt in 2008. In fact, the financial crisis was about debt, it was about our inability to pay the debt that we had,” Schiff said.

More…

 

Jim/Bill,

Oh-Oh.

Hat Trick?….Not!

Image result for hat trick images

Treasury auctions being boycotted, day before yesterday, yesterday and today?

Something’s going on.  This sounds ominous.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

7Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since April 2010 As Directs Disappear Again
October 25, 2018

After two consecutive mediocre auctions, today the US government concluded its near record weekly haul of Treasury issuance, selling $31 billion in 7 Year paper, which it sold at a yield of 3.074%, stopping through the When Issued 3.069%, up from 3.034% last month and the highest yield since April 2010.

Confirming the weak demand for the belly of the curve, the Bid to Cover declined again, and after September’s 2.449 it dipped to 2.393, the lowest since March, and below the 6 auction average of 2.55.

But the most notable feature of this auction, as with the most recent 3Y and 5Y auctions, was that the boycott by Direct bidders is going on, with Directs taking down just 5.22% of the final allotment, far below the 6 auction average of 14.1%, and the lowest since February 2011. Offsetting the poor Direct bid was the rebound in Indirects, who took down 64.6% of the auction, above last month’s 61.2% and better than the recent average of 63.0%. Dealers were left with 30.2% of the auction, more than the 25.3% in September and above the 22.9% average.

Overall, a mediocre auction, but the most pressing question is what has spooked Direct bidders – note, not foreign central banks but domestic accounts – from participating in Treasury auctions. So far an answer has not been proposed.

More…

Bizarre Direct Bid Collapse Continues In Today’s Tailing 5Y Auction
October 24, 2018

Similar to yesterday’s sale of 2Y paper, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in 5Y paper at a high yield of 2.977%, below last month’s 2.997%, and tailing the When Issued 2.971% by 0.6 bps.

The bid to cover dropped from 2.39 in September to just 2.30, below the 6 auction average of 2.51 and the lowest since February 2017.

But it was the internals were the biggest similarity to yesterday’s auction was found, because for the second day in a row, Direct Bidders were engaged in a full blown boycott, tendering only $2.227BN in bids, and were hit on only $727MM, a take down of only 1.9%, which was the lowest since July 2009. It is unclear what has spooked Direct bidders so much but whatever it is, it continues.

Meanwhile, Indirects took down 59.0% of the auction, which while above last month’s 57.9% was below the six auction average of 61.6%. Dealers were left with 39.1% of the allotment, a sharp increase from the 28.3% recorded in the prior 6 auctions.

Overall, not a bad auction but the collapse in Direct demand is perplexing and if it continues, may be an indication that a key buyer group for Treasury paper may have left the building.

More…

2Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since July 2008, As Direct Bidders Collapse
October 23, 2018

The short-end just keeps on rising, with the latest auction of $38BN in 2Y paper stopping at a high yield of 2.880%, up from 2.825% in September, the highest since July 2008, and stopping 0.1bp through the When Issued 2.881%. The auction size has been increasingly progressively from $26BN in January to $38BN currently as there is an increasingly larger budget gap that needs to be filled.

The internals were generally in line, with the Bid to Cover rising from 2.437 to 2.671, if below the 2.75 6 month auction average.

The biggest surprise was in the buyside takedown, because whereas Indirects took down a healthy 52.6% of the auction, the highest since December 2016, well above last month’s 40%, and above the 6 auction average of 42.0%, it was the Directs that got spooked, and after being awarded 13.4% last month, they only took down 5.50% this time, the lowest since August 2009. Dealers were left with 41.9%, just below the 6 auction average of 46.6%.A

Overall, a strong auction on the short end, and one which appears to have sparked a bit of an equity rally, if having little effect on the overall yield curve.

More…

 

Who will help me sponsor a Go Fund Me Page to help these socialists move to a country that gives them everything? Maybe we can peel this onion and make it a real story.

JB

Caravan Of Liberal Americans Makes Way Toward Socialist Paradise Of Venezuela
October 25th, 2018

MEXICO—A migrant caravan full of leftists desiring to enter the socialist paradise of Venezuela departed the United States Thursday and began marching toward through Mexico, stating they will demand asylum so they might experience the far better life that socialism offers.

The migrants claim they are leaving America because of its high standards of living, strong economy, and record unemployment, and hope to find a better life in Venezuela’s much more equitable system.

“Everyone there has the same quantity of possessions and food,” said one marcher. “Everyone makes millions of dollars, and very few people work. It’s a real paradise.” The refugees have complex motivations, but the vast majority simply want to see everything socialism has to offer after suffering the amazing benefits of capitalism for too long.

More…

Posted at 9:40 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

China proposes strongly to exchange the African debt owed, now mainly overdue, to be repaid in minerals, not in the dollars for the full dollar amount of the debt itself including interest.

China already has large Strategic Materials and Precious Metals inventories. High tech will come to a halt without the rare earth and other strategic materials, of which Africa is the major source outside of China. This means Cupertino in California will have a major increase in the unemployed geeks.

The Chinese are known to be smart. This would suggest we are very close to lows in mineral prices in general.

It Was A Total Hoax! Clocks Taped to ‘Pipe Bombs’ Do Not Have Alarm Function! Were Just for Show!
October 24, 2018

Several bombs were sent out to Democrat leaders Wednesday – none of which detonated.

The Secret Service announced that suspicious packages were sent to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

George Soros, former AG Eric Holder, Rep. Maxine Waters were also sent mail bombs.

The return address name on the suspicious packages sent to Clinton, Obama, Holder and Maxine Waters belonged to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

But now it appears this was all a hoax!

The clocks taped to the “pipe bombs” do not have an alarm function.

Neon Revolt reported:

    Turns out, #Anons were able to locate the actual make and model of the clock taped to one of the bombs.

    Aaaaaaand…

    It doesn’t even have an alarm function.

    In other words, it can’t count down to anything. It’s literally just to make a “scary-looking” bomb prop.

The clocks do not have an alarm function. It was a complete hoax.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Smart money flows…

Is The “Smart Money” Flow Index Signalling Recession? (It Signalled Dot.com Bust and Financial Crisis)
October 21, 2018

The Smart Money Flow Index is a sentiment index attempting to measure “skittishness” in the markets.  Particularly at stock market opening in the US for the Dow.

We saw a collapse in the Smart Money Flow index in 1999 as the Dot.com bubble exploded. Then we saw a slower decline starting in 2004 in front of the housing bubble burst and financial crisis.

Now we have a third collapse of the Smart Money Flow Index, likely related to economic uncertainties like trade wars, Brexit, Nancy Pelosi being House majority leader … again and the policy errors of Central Banks including our own Feral Federal Reserve.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is a fair amount of capital considering the Fed created $16 trillion in 2009…right?

The Nightmare Scenario: JPMorgan Warns Of $7.4 Trillion In ETF Selling During Next Downturn
October 24, 2018

When it comes to sleepless night involving the great unknowns locked in the Pandora’s box that was created by central bankers and which will be unleashed during next financial crisis, one nightmare is among the most recurring: what happens when the ETFs, which have been buying stocks for the past decade, begin to sell?

The answer, according to JPMorgan, would be nothing short of catastrophic.

According to a new report from JPM equity strategist, Eduardo Lecubarri, passive investing (i.e., ETFs and index funds) – which was not a big driver of equity returns in the last recession as it accounted for less than 30% of the AUM in actively managed funds back then, “should bring big selling pressure to large caps and US small and mid caps during the next downturn”, Lechubarri writes, as a result of the staggering increase in Passive AUM over the past decade which, as a % of active AUM, has nearly reached parity, and was around 83% as of 2018; Passive AUM is widely expected to surpass Active AUM over the next two years.

How much selling pressure? JPMorgan calculates that some $7.4 trillion in stocks would be subject to forced selling by passive funds during the next downturn.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

MarketWatch is mainstream right? They will say you were warned…!

Protections on risky loans are close to their worst-ever levels, says Moody’s
October 25, 2018

The covenant quality of North American leveraged loans is close to its worst-ever level as investors forfeit protections they may need if borrowers become distressed, Moody’s Investors Service said Thursday.

The credit-rating agency is the latest to sound the alarm on a market worth about $1.4 trillion that some say is concentrating debt in a way that resembles the subprime lending mania that sparked the 2008 financial crisis.

In July, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the rise of the leveraged loan market—loans issued by companies that don’t carry investment-grade ratings—is one of the few areas where investors are rightly concerned about excessive debt levels in the U.S. economy. Zandi said an implosion of over-levered firms could provide the spark to halt the second-longest economic expansion.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Paul Harvey, “And here is the rest of the story”…

Woman Who Confronted Jeff Flake in Elevator Leads Soros-Funded Activist Group
October 1, 2018

NEW YORK — Ana Maria Archila, one of the two women who confronted Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake in an elevator on Friday, helps lead a progressive organization funded by billionaire George Soros that heads an $80 million activist effort characterized as part of the anti-Trump “resistance” movement.

Archila and a second woman, 23-year-old Maria Gallagher, both said that they survived sexual assault when they challenged Flake as he entered an elevator prior to his Senate Judiciary Committee vote on whether to approve the nomination of President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.

Ultimately, Flake prompted a new FBI investigation into Kavanaugh as a condition for moving forward with the nomination. When asked whether the elevator confrontation contributed to his decision, Flake told the Atlantic that the moment had been “poignant” for him and “it certainly struck a chord.”

More…

Posted at 4:49 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Image may contain: 2 people, meme and text Image may contain: 1 person, text

 

Jim,

Negative mope will suck the life out of mope!

Dave

October Auto Sales Tumble: “Our Car Sales Are Down 12 Percent”
October 23, 2018

The downward spiral in the US auto industry is accelerating, and there may be no improvement anytime soon.

According to a new report by CNBC, October is shaping up to be another terrible month for the industry, after an already abysmal September, as auto dealers around the country have been plagued by marked drops in retail sales and customer traffic in their showrooms.

Scott Adams, the owner of a Toyota dealership in Lee’s Summit, Missouri, told CNBC: “We are definitely seeing business pull back. September was off some, but this month our car sales are down 12 percent and our truck sales are down 23 percent.” The report notes that the drop in sales was most pronounced last weekend.

Another dealer in Tampa Bay, Florida said that sales this month were down 13%. Mark Scarpelli, president of Raymond Chevrolet and Kia in Antioch, Illinois stated that “Customer traffic has moderated. There is a little bit more of a pause because of the higher interest rates.” He said that although sales are keeping pace with the prior year, people are taking longer to buy.

Recall that in September, the average new car loan jumped $724 year-over-year to $30,958 in Q2 2018, while used vehicle loan amounts increased $520 to reach $19,708, both records.

More…

 

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

 

David Rosenberg is EXTREMELY CLOSE to being “main stream” and he asks a very pointed question…

Bill

Posted at 9:49 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Paul Volcker is the economic master of the universe. Listen carefully to him or suffer the consequences.

Paul Volcker, At 91, Sees ‘A Hell Of A Mess In Every Direction’
Oct. 23, 2018

Paul Volcker, wearing a blue sweatsuit and black dress socks, stretched out on a recliner in the den of his Upper East Side apartment on a Sunday afternoon. His lanky 6-foot-7 frame extended beyond the end of the chair’s leg rest. He added an ottoman to rest his feet.

“I’m not good,” said Mr. Volcker, 91, the former Federal Reserve chairman, who came to prominence after he used shockingly high interest rates to help end the runaway inflation of the late 1970s and early ’80s. Long one of finance’s wise men, he has been sick for several months.

But he would rather not talk about himself. Instead, Mr. Volcker wants to talk about the country, the economy and the government. And if he had seemed lethargic when I arrived, he turned lively in his laments: “We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction,” he said.

More…

 

The White House  – Socialism Belongs In The Dustbin Of History
October 23, 2018

With the 200th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth, socialism is making a comeback in America. Democrats used to accuse Republicans of fear-mongering when they called out certain far-left policy ideas as “socialist.” Now, a growing number of Democrats are wearing the label as a badge of honor.

American socialists may imagine their proposals mirror those in Northern European countries such as Sweden and Norway. In reality, ideas along the lines of “Medicare for All” have more in common with economists’ traditional definition of socialism. The record of countries who have experimented with those types of command-and-control systems is devastating: Maoist China, the Soviet Union, and Venezuela among them.

Something to share: Socialism has a long legacy of failure across the world.

The sky-high taxes needed to fund “Medicare for All” alone, for example, would lead to a staggering $17,000 drop in household incomes after taxes and healthcare expenditures—a 19 percent decline. Without taxing American workers, funding this radical plan would require cuts to half of the Federal budget, wrecking Medicaid, Social Security, and traditional Medicare in the process.

Socialist policies have failed across the world wherever they are tested. They have no place in the United States of America.

Get the facts: What Democrats will take from you to push their socialist agenda.

Full report: The true costs of socialism

More…

Posted at 10:00 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Judicial Watch EXCLUSIVE Interview w/ Caravan Member in Guatemala
October 23, 2018

More…

 

Courtesy of Dave.

Jim

Emerging Economies Stockpiling Gold In Expectation Of US Dollar Banking System Collapse – Analysts
October 20, 2018

Countries around the world are turning to gold as uncertainty about the global economy rises. Trade wars and the aggressive policies of the United States are making emerging economies withdraw from dollar assets, analysts told RT.

“In the near future we can witness a big change in the rules of the game. At the beginning of the year, developing countries were the first to feel investor panic. If a crisis in Latin America and South Asia doesn’t surprise anybody, now is the time to worry about the largest economies of the world,” Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst at the social network for investors eToro in Russia and CIS told RT.

“The aggressive US policy in recent years has forced some countries to look for an alternative to the dollar and replenish their gold reserves. Worries about the future growth of global economy are an additional incentive for purchases. Many question Donald Trump’s protectionism,” the analyst added.

There are signs that the global financial system dominated by the US dollar could collapse, says financial institute FinIst analyst Denis Lisitsyn. These signs include the uncontrolled emission of money from different countries, an increase in US interest rates, trade wars, the rapid rise in energy prices, geopolitical tensions in Syria, Iraq, the war in Yemen, he says.

“Many countries are buying gold in advance. They understand that paper money is constantly eaten up by inflation, equities will sharply fall in price in case of a crisis, and foreign deposits can be arrested, confiscated or frozen,” he said.

Hungary, Poland, Russia, China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia are all hoarding gold, notes Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, expert at the International Financial Center.

More…

 

Posted at 7:12 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

We knew this was coming…and were laughed at. The ramifications will be no laughing matter!

China Will ‘Compel’ Saudi Arabia To Trade Oil In Yuan — And That’s Going To Affect The US Dollar
October 11, 2017

China will “compel” Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan and, when this happens, the rest of the oil market will follow suit and abandon the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, a leading economist told CNBC on Monday.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, said Beijing stands to become the most dominant global player in oil demand since China usurped the U.S. as the “biggest oil importer on the planet.”

Saudi Arabia has “to pay attention to this because even as much as one or two years from now, Chinese demand will dwarf U.S. demand,” Weinberg said.

“I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it — as the Chinese will compel them to do — then the rest of the oil market will move along with them.”

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

What a sad story on so many levels. Sad that anyone would “sell” themselves to protest and sad anyone would feel the need to “buy” protesters. I guess now we know why people show up to protest ridiculous causes? As they always say…follow the money!

California Company That Hires Protesters Is Accused Of Extortion
October 22, 2018

Paid protesters are real.

Crowds on Demand, a Beverly Hills company that’s an outspoken player in the business of hiring protesters, boasts on its website that it provides its clients with “protests, rallies, flash-mobs, paparazzi events and other inventive PR stunts. … We provide everything including the people, the materials and even the ideas.”

But according to a lawsuit filed by a Czech investor, Crowds on Demand also takes on more sordid assignments. Zdenek Bakala claims the company has been used to run an extortion campaign against him.

Bakala has accused Prague investment manager Pavol Krupa of hiring Crowds on Demand to pay protesters to march near his home in Hilton Head, S.C., and to call and send emails to the Aspen Institute and Dartmouth College, where Bakala is on advisory boards, urging them to cut ties to him. Bakala alleges that Krupa has threatened to continue and expand the campaign unless Bakala pays him $23 million.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams’s Commentary:

– FOMC Discussions of Raising Rates to Restrictive Levels Are After the Fact; Higher Rates Already Are Pummeling Near-Term Economic Prospects and Threatening Financial-System Stability in this Still-Experimental and Unresolved Post-2007/2008-Crisis Environment
– Oil-Price Driven Inflation Does Not Reflect an Overheating Economy; It Hurts Consumer Liquidity Just as Much as Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
– Faltering Consumer Liquidity Clobbered September 2018 Retail Sales and New Residential Construction
– Real Annual Retail Sales Growth Slowed in a Manner Most Commonly Seen at the Onset of a New Recession
– Building Permits, Housing Starts and Home Sales Just Entered What Could Be Considered a New Recession
– Third-Quarter Permits and Starts Fell in Consecutive Quarterly Contractions; Existing-Home Sales Declined in a Third Consecutive Quarterly Contraction; All Key Residential Series Are in Deepening Six-Month Downtrends
– Minimal Monthly Growth in September Consumer Goods Production Came Entirely from Downside Revisions to August Activity
– With No End in Sight, September 2018 Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.8% (-4.8%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
– The 129 Straight Months (43 Straight Quarters) of Economic Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Series
– Mixed Data Distortions/Disruptions from the Hurricanes of 2018 and 2017

“No. 975: September Retail Sales, Production, Freight, Housing Starts, Hurricanes and FOMC”
www.shadowstats.com

Posted at 7:48 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Just the wrong thing at the worst time for many who doubt us!

You will recall our long conversations on just this in the weekly conference call.

For Trump’s sake, let’s hope the last fling of the PTT works until after midterm election.

We have been patient for a long time.

A few weeks more is nothing, yet I suspect we might not have that.

The Global Dollar Shortage is Here – And It’s Becoming A Big Problem
October 19, 2018

Another week and another signal flashing red to deal with. . .

The credit market – in my opinion – is indicating an inevitable ‘crunch’ coming up. And even worse – we’re seeing the global dollar shortage deepening.

Many readers know I haven’t exactly been shy about focusing on this dollar shortage problem all year – you can read more here, and here.

Personally – I think this may be the trigger that kicks off a brutal, worldwide, financial crisis. . .

For instance – just look at what’s happened with Emerging Markets because of a tightening Federal Reserve, a stronger dollar, and drying liquidity.

Don’t forget – a dollar shortage is synonymous with disappearing liquidity. Which means we can expect more violent and sudden market crashes to occur – just like we saw over the last two weeks.

Stock markets (and bond markets) around the world took big losses. The only thing that really outperformed was gold.

More…