Posted at 2:43 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Of great significance.

It’s Happening Again… Investors Dump Everything ‘China’

July 24, 2020

Global stock markets plunged Friday as tensions between the US and China spiral out of control.

Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China tumbled after Beijing ordered Washington to cease all operations at its consulate in the city of Chengdu. This came days after Washington ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas, to close.

Investors are becoming fearful the tit-for-tat spat between the US and China will escalate into August. Today’s equity selling in Asia, Europe, and the US is evident in derisking.

We must note, derisking has been stealthily occurring under the surface for two months. While President Trump and Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy pump stocks, the smart money has been quickly dumping US-listed firms that do business in China because of increasing tensions.

Fathom’s proprietary China Exposure Index (CEI) tracks US-listed firms that have 15% and 85% of their revenues from China. The CEI shows investors have been dumping these companies since the start of June.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Cue the aliens! You knew that was next right?

Pentagon’s Top-Secret UFO Unit To Brief Senate As Ex-Official Says ‘Off-World Vehicles’ Found
July 24, 2020

(TMU) – As secretive unit operating within the U.S. Department of Defense that is charged with investigating unidentified flying objects (UFOs) will make some of its findings public after it was revealed that the Pentagon has been recently briefed about “off-world vehicles not made on this earth.”

The once-covert UFO unit, which operates within the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence, will soon begin giving regular biannual updates on its research to the U.S. Senate’s Intelligence Committee, reports The New York Times.

The Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force was formed in 2019 for the purpose of studying strange and inexplicable encounters between U.S. military pilots and unidentified aerial vehicles or UFOs in a bid “to standardize collection and reporting” of the various sightings.

The program is the successor to the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, which also investigated UFOs but was dissolved in 2017 due to a lapse of funding. However, the team working on that program continued its work alongside the intelligence community even after it was officially disbanded.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

She is correct, but can you imagine the intestinal fortitude to tell truth in today’s world? Tell truth today and fired tomorrow…!

Four Months of Unprecedented Government Malfeasance
May/June 2020

The following is adapted from a lecture delivered on June 18, 2020, for a Hillsdale College online symposium, “The Coronavirus and Public Policy.”

Over the last four months, Americans have lived through what is arguably the most consequential period of government malfeasance in U.S. history. Public officials’ overreaction to the novel coronavirus put American cities into a coma; those same officials’ passivity in the face of widespread rioting threatens to deliver the coup de grâce. Together, these back-to-back governmental failures will transform the American polity and cripple urban life for decades.

Before store windows started shattering in the name of racial justice, urban existence was already on life support, thanks to the coronavirus lockdowns. Small businesses—the restaurants and shops that are the lifeblood of cities—were shuttered, many for good, leaving desolate rows of “For Rent” signs on street after street in New York City and elsewhere. Americans huddled in their homes for months on end, believing that if they went outside, death awaited them.

This panic was occasioned by epidemiological models predicting wildly unlikely fatalities from the coronavirus.

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Posted at 11:55 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The latest from Erik.

Is the Run-up in Gold Predicting a Crash—Recovery—Crash _001

Is the Run-up in Gold Predicting a Crash—Recovery—Crash _002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I sure hope they checked the flood plain, I saw the Colorado River take out 40 square blocks of Victoria in 1998!

Tesla says it will build $1 billion factory in Texas, reportedly bringing 5,000 jobs to area
July 23, 2020

Tesla this week announced a mammoth new investment in central Texas in the near future, with plans in the works for the electric car manufacturer to build a billion-dollar factory in Travis County and bring with it thousands of new jobs for the area.

Company CEO Elon Musk announced in an earnings call this week the impending development of a new “Gigafactory” near Austin, Texas. The facility will “create at least 5,000 new jobs and generate over $1 billion in capital investment,” according to a Wednesday press release from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

“Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas will keep the Texas economy the strongest in the nation and will create thousands of jobs for hard-working Texans,” Abbott said in the release.

The construction of the factory is slated to begin in the third quarter of 2020 and is projected to take just over a year to build.

Telsa, as a result of earnings and stock values, recently became the world’s most valuable auto company.

Musk on the phone call said the factory would be “stunning.”

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Posted at 9:31 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

     August Gold is staying in the green with the trade now at $1,890.40, up 60 cents and closer to the high at $1,896.70 than the low at $1,880.50. Silver is signaling, which may no longer be an indicator, with the trade at $22.76, down 22.8 cents after hitting a low of $22.58 with the high up at $22.985. The well printed US Dollar continues to find support with the value pegged at 94.71, up 6.1 points after reaching up to 94.78 with the low so far at 94.515. Of course, all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Goldman Sachs pays $3.9 Billion in penalty’s to the Malaysian government.

       Gold’s gains are everywhere these days! In Venezuela, Gold’s value now sits at 18,880.37 Bolivar, proving a gain of 138.82 overnight with Silver now priced at 227.316, showing a 1.098 Bolivar reduction. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now gauged at 135,658.41 giving the holder an additional 1,094.49 in A-Peso value with Silver losing 6.16 A-Peso’s with the last price at 1,633.79. Gold’s value under the Turkish Lira, is now gauged at 12,946.30 showing an additional gain of 96.16 Lira’s with Silver at 155.870, proving a slight reduction of 0.747 of a T-Lira.

      July Silver’s Delivery Demands are to end soon, yet the physical demands remain so strong we can hardly contain ourselves, with today’s starting count at 1,270 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts and with No Volume up on the board so far today, reducing the demand count by 106 from yesterday’s tally. Yesterday’s delivery activity happened in between $23.325 and $22.665 with the last buy at $22.91 with the closing price at $22.945. A total of 200 contracts swapped hands throughout yesterday’s pullback, as the trade took away only 13.8 cents. There was a ton of activity these past 2 days inside the Volumes in all the Ag contracts, yet the Overall Open Interest is not showing much of a change with the count adding another 511 short contracts bringing the total to 185,872 Overnighters going against the physicals. So far for the month of July, 15,678 purchases have been completed at the Comex (78,400,000 ounces) and that was before a certain Resolute made a statement.

      July Gold’s Delivery Demands now show a post of 136 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 1 up on the board with a $1,884.30 price attached to it, down $4.80 so far today. Yesterday’s all-day-activity inside the delivery system happened between $1,890 and $1,868.50 with the last buy price at $1,882 with the adjusted close at $1,889.10 that brought a Volume of 133 with it. These newer purchases caused the delivery count to increase by 17. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now gauged at 609,274 Overnighters proving a 5,676 reduction in count during yesterday’s rally as we watched closely as the Christmas Contract hit $1,927.10 before the calm was applied to the price. We’re not that far away from a new “Life of Contract High” in Gold, maybe today those that hold will feel better than they have these past 9 years.

      Next Tuesday is the August Options Expiration Day for Silver and Gold. The very next day, is the Last Trading Day for the July Contracts with next Friday being the First Notice Day for the August contracts. Yesterday’s activity in Gold was all about the rollover, out of the August contract and into December’s. Decembers Open Interest is now leading all contracts. August is another primary delivery month for Gold, and maybe it will be another stellar month for Silver too. August Gold’s Open Interest is now at 227,778 which represents 22,777,800 ounces. Is that too much for Comex? Let’s wait it out and see.

      Everything has changed for the positive in precious metals! The demands are overwhelming everywhere, including the already collapsed currencies called the emerging markets. Many nations are now vying for physicals, even after Venezuela was denied their gold held under British authority.

What we’ve been talking about can now be visualized, as the impact of the CCP-19 shutdowns on the Gold supply chain becomes more apparent everywhere. With Gold being only a few dollars away from making a new life of contract high, Silver is lagging, and under tremendous pressure, as we wait for that lid to blow! Could it be today, or will next week be it, or? Stay Tooned, and keep smiling! Have a great and wonderful weekend, have a prayer for all and keep your metals close, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

Posted at 11:32 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

It makes no ‘cents’. A paper Dollar, that is.

Coins with intrinsic metallic value for worthless paper.

Wisconsin Bank paying a 5% premium for coins, in the interest of the community. Really?

My thought…current paper fiat will be replaced with new devalued currency. The coins are not easily replaceable. Too high a cost.Their denomination will remain the same. A penny will still be a penny, but worth more as it will be part of a revalued currency.

If you see other banks following suit then it will confirm my suspicions.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang,

Clad coins are in a shortage? Wait until people find out there is a shortage of gold and silver because contracts are not metal just like “grits ain’t groceries”…

Bill

Wisconsin Bank Pays Above Face Value For Coins Amid Shortage
July 22, 2020

As the nationwide coin shortage continues to rage, a southeastern Wisconsin bank is offering above face value for coins.

Last week, the Community State Bank (CSB) launched a coin buy-back program to assist local businesses affected by the shortage. The bank is offering customers a $5 bonus for every $100 worth of coins turned in at any of its seven locations.

“The response has been tremendous,” CSB President and CEO, Scott Huedepohl, said in a release.

“We’ve had people contacting us not only from our community but all over the United States. Our goal was to generate enough coin inventory to help our local businesses. We’ve met and far exceeded our goals,” said Huedepohl.

The program is expected to end Tuesday (July 21), was initiated late last week, and quickly gained national attention.

CSB customers and non-bank customers were able to receive a maximum bonus of $500. That means if someone brought in $200 in coins, that customer would get a $10 bonus.

“We received an abundance of coin in a short amount of time,” said AVP Retail Operations Director, Katie Stolp. “I’ve never seen anything like it. We’re very fortunate that we have the tools and ability to process all of the coins. That coin is now being put to good use and helping local business owners all over Southeast Wisconsin.”

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Jim/Bill,

I see no difference between toilet paper and gold.

Both react to the masses in the same manner.

Many are waiting for the ugliness of resurging inflation and fiat currency destruction before running to gold for safety. But by then, alas, it will be too late. We already have a shortage of available physical. Imagine when hoards of investors begin scrambling for the exit door and find there’s none to be had! (That is, if a few a lucky enough to squeeze through).

Simply witness what happened to supplies of toilet paper when Covid-19 hit. The shelves were empty. None to be had. At any price. If it ain’t there, it ain’t.

Don’t let that scenario befall you with precious metals. At least with toilet paper it can be substituted with fiat currency to wipe your ass. Not so with gold.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang,

Funny thing about human nature Wolfgang, whenever something becomes scarce the masses want it even more so! And there is a huge difference on the supply side, were gold to go to $10,000 tonight, there would be very little additional production in the near and intermediate terms. Not so with toilet paper, we would be flooded with toilet paper in a New York minute if demand pushed the price to $10 per roll. The additional production/supply would immediately tamp down price and speculation. Please remember these words “there is no rush like a gold rush”!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

“We wish not to meddle with the internal affairs of any country…” Thomas Jefferson

What the hell are we doing? Oh yeah, I get it: trying topple another government as we did in just about every South and Central American country.

To what end? To line the pockets of industrial giants? Trade is trade, no matter what your political views are. It benefits everyone. Just as humans are humans, no matter what their race, color, or creed.

Whenever politics comes into play, it’s game over for the common man.

Don’t our legislators, at the very least, try to abide by the wisdom of our forefathers?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang,

The answer to your question is an emphatic NO! We apparently have not learned the lessons the 1930’s should have taught us regarding trade. Shut trade down and how exactly does the real global economy spin off enough cash flow to service the hugely inflated amount of debt outstanding?

Bill

Pompeo To Essentially Call For ‘A People’s Uprising’ In Communist China
July 23, 2020

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is about to apply the Syria-Iran-Venezuela model to China.

But unlike these countries, which in recent years have seen US-backed covert proxy war operations attempt to foment ‘mass uprisings’ leading to regime change, it’s likely to produce little effect on the ground, other than further enraging Beijing.

Via The Washington Times

The WSJ, which has seen a copy of the State Department speech to be delivered Thursday afternoon, describes that it more or less calls for a people’s uprising in Communist-run China:

Mr. Pompeo says Chinese leader Xi Jinping is a “true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology.” Mr. Pompeo stops shy of explicitly calling for regime change, urging allied countries and the people of China to work with the U.S. to change the Communist Party’s behavior.

And more:

The Communist Party “fears the Chinese people’s honest opinions more than any foreign foe,” Mr. Pompeo plans to say in the speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum. The U.S. “must also engage and empower the Chinese people,” Mr. Pompeo says, according to the draft.

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Posted at 11:08 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

The more things change, the more they stay the same…and never change.

Dave

Dodd-Frank Is 10 Years Old Today and the Fed Is Back to Bailing Out Wall Street
July 21, 2020

Today marks the 10th Anniversary of the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, named after its two sponsors, former Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and former Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA). The massive piece of legislation was signed into law on July 21, 2010 by President Barack Obama at a time when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress – meaning there was no excuse not to put tough Wall Street reform legislation in place.

While the progressive wing of the Democrats was demanding the restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act, which would have completely separated the federally-insured, deposit-taking banks from the Wall Street casino (the trading firms known as investment banks and broker-dealers), the Wall Street wing of the Democrats didn’t want to upset their big political campaign donors on Wall Street.

The result was that the Wall Street wing of the Democrats won and 2300 pages of mostly worthless “reform” measures were signed into law.

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Jim/Bill,

That “V” is not coming. WeWork will never work now. Can you say empty office space.

Dave

Wall Street Firms Are Considering A Mass Exodus From New York
July 21, 2020

Wall Street is about to see a mass exodus.

Firms in New York’s financial district are facing an onslaught of headwinds amounting to great reasons to simply pick up and leave: employees working from home, unused office space, a mayor who has squelched law and order in the city and a state legislature obsessed with taxation, just to name a few.

That’s why we weren’t surprised when Bloomberg reported that New York’s financial and professional-services industries are considering eliminating up to 20% of their footprint in the city.

About 25% of employers are considering paring their footprint in the city by at least 20% and about 16% expect to move jobs out of the city, according to a study conducted by the Partnership for New York City.

Companies are only expecting that 10% of their employees will return to the office this summer. That number only bumps up to 40% by the end of 2020. City and state tax revenue losses could exceed $37 billion during the next two years as a result, to which we say good, maybe it’ll give the state’s politicians less terrible ideas – like Elon Musk’s “Solar Roof” factory in Buffalo – to piss away taxpayers’ hard earned money on.

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Posted at 10:59 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

As silver has exploded higher, the gold/silver ratio has dropped back to near 80-1. Premiums have turned and moved higher each day for about a week. While we do have inventory, there are again some wait times on delivery. Nothing like 6-8 weeks in some instances back in April but wait times nonetheless. If you have pondered making purchase and held off, now would be a good time to pull the trigger as metal is available. We went from a Thursday to a Monday back in late March where dealer inventory was essentially wiped clean. As Jim says, the time to purchase metal is when you have the cash available. I would add, the time to purchase metal is when the metal is available. Whether it is caused by an event or just a plain stampede, I have maintained and still do that metal will go in to hiding. Do not try to time your purchase as the train is pulling away from the station and picking up steam with gold and silver on it. Do not be left behind because you believed you could time the move. Being left behind this time will be a lifelong error!

Bill

Posted at 10:57 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

You may recall we urged readers to learn who Judy Shelton was the day after the Presidential election. She has now been approved by the Senate Banking Committee.

Senate Panel Approves Nomination Of Judy Shelton To Fed Board Seat
July 21, 2020

The Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday approved Judy Shelton, an early supporter and adviser to President Donald Trump, to a seat on the Federal Reserve board of governors.

The committee also approved the nomination of Christopher Waller, head of economic research at the St. Louis Fed, to fill another vacancy on the seven-member board.

Shelton, a controversial nominee, was approved by a party-line vote of 13 to 12. Waller was approved by a wider margin of 18-7.

Shelton has been controversial because she has a long record of vocal advocacy for some form of a gold standard, which would tie the value of the U.S. dollar to the price of gold. Until the Great Depression destroyed the policy, central banks had used a gold standard to set monetary policy.

Democrats united against her nomination because they view a gold-standard as ignoring the plight of workers in policy making.

Sen. Mike Crapo, a Republican from Idaho and the chairman of the Banking Committee, defending Shelton, saying she would “broaden and diversify” the Fed’s perspective. He downplayed her prior support for the gold standard.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is a headline you could only see in the biggest bubble of all time or in a hyperinflation?  Which is it?

Jeff Bezos Adds $13B To Net Worth, Largest Single-Day Increase
July 21, 2020

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos’ added $13 billion to his net worth on Monday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.

Untitled

It was the most significant single-day increase in personal wealth since the index started in 2012, Bloomberg reported, after analysts raised their targets for Amazon’s stock, which jumped 7.9 percent Monday, ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report.

So far this year, his wealth grew by a total of $74 billion to more than $189 billion, according to the index.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Are you shocked? A credit analyst must look at “credit quality” 24/7. With gold this is not the case because it is not a liability, nor does it carry anyone else’s liability. And in today’s world where everything is a promise (that will not ultimately be kept), gold/silver are the only monies guaranteed to never bankrupt!

Deutsche Bank’s Top Credit Strategist Makes Stunning Admission: “I Am A Gold Bug; Fiat Money Is A Passing Fad In The History Of Money”
July 22, 2020

As covered here repeatedly over the past 24 hours, gold and silver (and oil) had a great day yesterday, with the rally continuing on Wednesday, sending silver nearly 100% higher than its March lows.

Furthermore, as DB’s Jim Reid notes, on a YTD basis, Gold (+21.4%) and Silver (+19.3%) have had standout moves compared with global risk – which as a reminder is what central banks are doing everything they can to prop up – even if WTI (-26.1%) is down.

What followed next was shocking as it came from the mouth of a respected legacy banker and not some tinfoil conspiracy theorist: admitting that he is “a gold bug”, Reid says that in his opinion, “fiat money will be a passing fad in the long-term history of money”, a shocking admission for most financial professionals who are expected who are expected to tow the Keynesian line and also believe in the primary of fiat and its reserve currency, the US Dollar.

That said, he also concedes that in his long-term work “I’ve always found many commodities difficult to recommend on a buy and hold basis as most underperform inflation over the long run – probably as they are mostly used in production and alternatives are found if too expensive. We also become more efficient at using them.”

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