Posted at 9:45 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner told his clients back in January 2020, “It was time to sell . . . . I am afraid they can lose 40% to the downside.” Well, we are more than halfway there, and Nenner warns it’s going to go lower—much lower. Nenner says, “You know it was all over the media, and they were always laughing at me that my long term target is 5,000 for the DOW Jones. They ask me how are we going to get there, and I say I don’t know. Now, this thing with the virus, there is no business anymore because the United States has stopped flights with Europe. So, maybe we can see how we get there.”

I think people have finally stopped laughing about Nenner’s  5,000 DOW call.

More…

Posted at 9:22 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Finally a Friday Folks,

      Gold is trading lower, but definitely not as bad as last nights starting point with the trade at $1,586.30 down $4 after dipping down to $1,551.00 with the high to beat at $1,594.20. Silver is down 22 cents after yesterday’s “selloff” with the trade at $15.785 after dipping down to $15.300 with the high nearby at $15.890. The US Dollar, after collapsing 5% worth of purchasing power before the Fed came and rescued their friends, has recovered (cough) by doing a 50% retracement and is now valued at 97.760, up 29.6 points with the high right here at 97.810 with the low at 97.335. Of course, all this happened after a week on absolute confusion, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the S&P and Dow did a lock limit up while we slept. Yahoo! Nothing like a good night sleep, let’s see how many people are awake, to believe this one after we witnessed 2 separate limit downs this week and in the same markets.

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 15,843.17 Bolivar down 547.32 from yesterday’s beating with Silver at 157.653 showing a loss of 8.189 Bolivar. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 99,368.90 Peso’s as the currency push – pulled Gold below the sixth digit to the left with Silver at 988.856 A-Peso’s it too seeing the currency removing its 4th digit as well as losing 50.334 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 9,949.10, losing 302.97 in T-Lira value and pushing its price below the fourth digit with Silver at 99.0218 T-Lira, also losing 4.7282 in value and its 3rd digit as well. 

      March Silver Deliveries continue to confound with the count now at 540 fully paid for contracts showing a loss of 95 orders either getting receipts or sending those EFP’s to London with yesterday’s trading range between $16.615 and $15.60 with the last trade at $15.87 and with the adjusted closing price at $15.961 where a total Volume of 51 traded. As of this morning we have a trading range for the 27 contracts (the Volume) that already switched hands between $15.765 and $15.405 with the last trade at $15.580. Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 180,080 showing a reduction of 3,297 Overnighters as many believe that only the longs exited and are the only ones causing this as we see things slightly different.

      March Gold’s Deliveries is showing another gain in count with the total now at 127 fully paid for contracts proving an increase from yesterday’s swaps that had a trading range between $1,647.50 and $1,566.40 with the last trade at $1,589.30 increasing the count by 15 contracts during the day where 256 receipts or spreads swapped in or out. Once again, the Comex logic is the challenge that will iron itself out when the last bar under the control of the centrals is removed. Gold’s Overall Open Interest really took a drop with the count now at 600,379 Overnighters proving that 30,130 (possible) Short Obligations left the Comex.

      Gold has turned positive as we end today’s missive with the trade now at $1,593.00 with Silver still being dragged along at $15.810 with the dollar sharply higher at 98.215. Yahoo! We’re saved again! But from what? Monday starts our Triple Witch Week, with the centrals doing their balancing act as the March Currencies all die together bringing in the new quarter’s trade, aka the June contracts, which becomes the primary trading vehicle. Then Treasuries get rolled over or cashed in with the S&P and the rest closing out at the end of the week. Next week might be something to behold for Silver and Gold as we wait for more emergency print (that is called “NOT QE”) to occur again because the investment arena seems to be complaining about liquidity, regardless of how much has been printed already. Have a safe and restful weekend, have a smile on your face and a prayer in your heart, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

More J. Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

Posted at 9:03 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

JB sent us a picture worth more than 1,000 words!

Bill

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Jim/Bill

This data, from the CDC as of its latest update, would make you wounder why the Corona-virus is getting so much attention?

Let’s put things into perspective, the total Corona-virus cases in the whole world, as of this writing is 108,139 cases with 3,669 deaths.

It would appear that the “regular” flu numbers, 45 million cases, and up to 46,000 deaths are more alarming…

Dave

Flu Update: March 2020 Numbers Are In
March 4, 2020

While the public deals with the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to New York State and major regions of the United States, flu season remains underway with the latest data being reported by the CDC.

So far this season, there have been 45 million flu illnesses, at least 300,000 hospitalizations, and up to 46,000 deaths from flu, of which more than 100 are pediatric–a higher total at this point of the year than any season in the past decade.

In Monroe County, there have been 4,699 confirmed cases and 10 deaths since October 1.

The CDC reports that the percentage of deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia is 6.8%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. But this year’s strain is unusual compared to previous years.

Read how to prevent and treat the flu

Influenza B Appeared Earlier

This year, Influenza B appeared earlier than usual. Traditionally, Influenza A appears earlier than Influenza B, but that was not the case to begin 2020.

More…

Posted at 8:58 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Does anyone remember hearing “we will go to bed on a Friday night and wake up to an entirely different world on Monday”?

S&P 500 Plunges 7%, Triggering Market-Wide Stock Trading Halt
March 9, 2020

(Bloomberg) — The severe rout in U.S. stocks triggered trading curbs that the New York Stock Exchange put in place after the 1987 Black Monday crash.

A 15-minute trading halt took hold after the S&P 500 Index fell 7% to 2,764.21 as of 9:34 a.m. in New York, triggering the breaker for the first time since December 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis. The gauge extended losses to 7.2% when trading resumed at 9:49 a.m.

“Even though people are concerned it could create more problems, it does allow people to step back and re-assess what they’re doing,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “The one thing is, it’s been a long time since any of these circuit breakers kicked in. Back then, it was positive. It allowed people to calm down a little bit.”

Another 15-minute pause will happen if losses reach 13%, a drop that would put the S&P 500 at 2,585.96. If the decline hits 20%, or 2,377.9, markets will close for the day. Only the 20% rule applies in the final 35 minutes of cash trading. Traders have never seen a 13% or 20% breaker trip.

The last time stocks trigged the 7% circuit breaker, on Dec. 1, 2008, the S&P 500 Index ended the day down 8.9%.

More…

Posted at 8:51 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

This article was made available to subscribers before public release.

There is so much commotion going on over the past few months, it has become scary and confusing no matter where one looks for news. The Covid19 has changed everything when it comes to the Just in Time Delivery System and is also taking lives as we witnessed China react like never before. We have done our level best to stick with the idea that the central banking system has no choice but to print in order to stay in control, and will continue to need to do so, as the printers look for other newsworthy excuses to keep it up.

      Our Velocity of M2 Money, which only gets updated every 3 months, should be amended soon. We expect the issues of low money flow to remain as we’ve highlighted over the years and as we exit out of the 1st quarter of 2020. The Baltic Dry Index is starting to climb and hopefully it’s a real believable stat as the issues of containers leaving China, are magically showing up, strong enough to raise the global cargo vessels in almost overnight fashion. Of note, the very next day after Wuhan was lifted out of quarantine, the BDI went higher! That’s some pretty fast and accurate updating in a world completely stopped of almost all shipments from that nation.

     In a way, we’ve been searching thru the data the way the “outsiders” did in the movie “The Big Short” just before the housing market puked. Going thru the stats is where gems of truth can be found which go against the advertised statistics like those in the most recent BDI posts. Most recently, scheduled containers going into China have curtailed the most since 2017. To add to the previous slowdown ..” this year, the traffic slowdown, with both fewer scheduled calls and more cancelled ones, is occurring much earlier. This comes even though many airlines have announced cancelling flight service, reducing air cargo capacity and forcing manufacturers to switch to waterborne transportation even for higher-value and more time-sensitive cargo.”

      Checking out the airlines next “Flybe’s collapse could be the ‘first of many’ airlines” going into “bankruptcies, (which) should be expected in the coming months”. This is highlighting the facts that all international flights (travel and cargo) are being used less and less with the Covid19 being used as an excuse for an already faltering global economy. This historical chart shows the annual growth in global air traffic passenger demand from 2006 to 2020, providing a much bigger issue over with 2018 (factual) and 2019 (estimate) highlighting the fact of a 43+% reduction has already happened before the virus.

      The point here is the only things that got bigger has been the printing and the depth of deception. With all this newly printed money going where it would benefit the few over the many. This has yet to improve the flow of money. If the shipping/travel stats actually did improve, they have to beat what was lost before the virus hit. That requires a much stronger economy, with employees making enough, to not only feed the family and pay the rent and taxes, but to be able to buy manufactured products instead of making due with what one has. The focus is still on a global economy, on life support, that took a gut punch to the body, while in a coma.

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

Posted at 8:51 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

       Gold is trading higher after the weekend, but not as high as the opening minutes, with the trade at $1,679.40, up $7 after reaching $1,704.30 (up $31.90) before all the calm was put into place, with the low at $1,658.00 right around the time of the London Open. Silver should be have had the police called out for the beating it’s taking right now, because a certain element can’t let it go, with the trade at $16.960, down 30.3 cents and after the first shot out of the gate put the price at $17.615 (+35.2 cents), with the starting London low at $16.570. The US Dollar, continues to collapse with the trade at 95.145, down another 78.9 points, yet it too has recovered from the fear, with all this “calm” being added after the trade dipped down to 94.665 with the Sunday night starting point at 95.780, Man oh Man What a Night For a Fright! Of course, all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the S&P500 went “Lock Limit Down”, Crude Oil traded $10 lower, and after the spot month in the 30 Year Treasury went 13 full basis points higher! Something I’ve never seen before in over 25 years!

      The Emerging Markets Currency Watch is showing the Calming Algo Machine is still working and in control. In Venezuela, Gold is under attack, as expected after last week’s IMF warning, with the price at 16,773.01 Bolivar, a lose of 77.90 with Silver at 169.388 showing a gut punch loss of 7.894 Bolivar over the weekend. The Argentine Peso is gaining value and pushing Gold lower with the trade at 104,842.09 showing a weekend loss of 305.27 A-Pesos with Silver losing 28.31 Peso’s with the super sale price of 1,058.94. Over in Turkey, the Lira has Gold beaten down to 10,272.30 showing a loss of 24.43 T-Lira with Silver losing 2.795 T-Lira’s with the price at 103.740.

      March Silver’s Delivery Demands shows a count of 749 contracts up on the board, proving a drop of 21 fully paid for 5,000 ounce obligations waiting for receipts and with a trading range between $17.435 and $16.570 with the last buy/sell at $16.960, showing us how those, that have the metals to sell, would rather sell at the lower prices than what used to be called normal, selling at the higher prices. Silver’s Overall Open Interest shows a small decline in count, since Friday mornings write up, with the total now at 196,042 Overnighters, proving a loss of 1,362 short contracts as of right now, with the idea that tomorrow morning, the shorts will have proven it piled on more than can be seen now. This activity can’t last much longer as our Resolute Buyers are soaking up their sells.

      March Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a count of 97 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Bigger Volume of 118 already posted up on the board with a trading range between $1,701.60 and $1,657.70 with the last buy/sell price at $1,675.30 proving the same point that the holders would rather lose value before they liquidated than sell at the higher price, this is done even after the fear trade was put into place, around the world. Gold’s Overall Open Interest proves the shorts are getting out while they can and during their manipulations with the count now at 668,692 Overnighters, proving a strong reduction of 21,318 Obligations during Friday’s trades. We expect the shorts to have piled on their game one more time as they attempt to tell everyone they remain calm even though we have a lock limit down in the Stock Market. You see, these Algos are not afraid of the Coronavirus, they fear being unplugged.

      “Lock Limit” is a term we use in the Commodity Sector. Reaching a “limit” is one thing which means a single trading month’s transaction reached the maximum move allowed, but is still trading. A “Lock Limit” is when the 3 first (front) months of the same Commodity hits the limit at the same time, then all trading stops. The S&P and the Dow Jones have “Lock Limited Down” in the overnight, meaning no more trades until later today. This is a “very scary moment” for anyone who is long a contract in either market because there are no buyers for their sell orders. “Lock Limit Down” is the exact opposite of what we expect in precious metals when they finally go exponential, when it is declared a “Lock Limit Up” or a “Time Out” since the rules were changed over a decade ago and for no reason.

      A quick lesson here is in the Commodities Sector’s Options Board. When a market goes lock limit, many are stuck in place, some winning and other losing equally, that’s when we look into the options to see how much more the markets might have traded “if” there was no limit move. The March S&P closed Friday at 2964.00 and is now at 2819.00 down 145 points. The March S&P 2970 “Put” closed on Friday at 96.25 with the last trade/post in the early morning at 170. The Option was “just in the money” at the Friday close and is now 170 points higher in value yet the market this derivative is made from is down 145 telling us another 25 points would have kept this market from locking limit.

China again, has cancelled most of their flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, drawing public speculation that the changes were precautions “related to the novel coronavirus outbreak…. According to flight-tracking websites, almost all flights from Shenzhen and Guangzhou to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou were cancelled after 5:15 p.m. local time on March 5. Some of the flights to Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, and other top Chinese cities were cancelled as well. On March 6, flights resumed but were delayed.…with all passenger trains departing from Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing city, Chengdu in Sichuan province, Zhongshan in Guangdong province, and many other major Chinese cities also stopped operations on March 6.”

      Hopefully you are prepared for a staycation, while the world sorts out the lies from the truths in all media and governments, as we observe the rising global death tolls. Keeping Calm is a must, it allows those that can a chance to make decision’s not based in fear while those that do panic, prove why it’s safer to Keep Calm. Have a smile on your face and a kind thought in your heart, no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More JJ reports can be observed on the subscriber side of the site.