Posted at 12:56 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

We continued to believe the rule of law would make a comeback. President Trump’s tweet is a strong indication it is game on!

Trump Shares Image Calling For His Opponents To Face Trials For ‘Treason’
November 28, 2018

President Trump on Wednesday morning shared an image calling for his opponents to face trial for “treason,” with many of them behind bars.

The image, which the president retweeted from a pro-Trump Twitter account, depicts a host of figures Trump has criticized, including former President Obama, 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, special counsel Robert Mueller, former FBI Director James Comey and former President Bill Clinton.

“Now that Russia collusion is a proven lie, when do the trials for treason begin?” the caption on the photo reads.

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Posted at 4:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

JB,

This really pushes the PC boundaries using a native American truth telling.  I can’t wait to respond to the brigade of offended snowflakes!  It seems the truer something is…the more offended they are?

Best,

Bill

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim,

We talked about this on Saturday.

Dave

Sweden Is on the Verge of Going Completely Cashless: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
November 26, 2018

Sweden is rapidly turning into a cashless society, which seems like the utopian dream of many a government figure. What could possibly go wrong from the government’s point of view? Isn’t it ideal that they could soon digitally control every single person in the country?

Actually, quite a few things are going wrong. So much so that even members of the government are expressing concern.

Sweden is the most cashless society in the world

The change is happening fast in the European country.

“No cash accepted” signs are becoming an increasingly common sight in shops and eateries across Sweden as payments go digital and mobile…

…Sweden is widely regarded as the most cashless society on the planet. Most of the country’s bank branches have stopped handling cash; many shops, museums and restaurants now only accept plastic or mobile payments…

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Posted at 11:58 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Just a glimpse of what a real trade war would look like?io

Bill Holter’s Commentary

And once again, it’s all about credit…!

“This Is The End-Of-Cycle”: One Bank’s Credit Monitor Is Flashing Red
November 27, 2018

Back in April, when very few were concerned about the fate of the US credit market where credit spreads were approaching all time tights, Morgan Stanley asked what would turn out to be a prophetic question: “Is the credit cycle about to crack”, and taking a contrarian position, answered in the affirmative.

Seven months later, as part of its 2019 Credit Outlook, Morgan Stanley takes its dismal take of US credit one step further, and in a report from strategist Adam Richmond, writes that “the credit bear market, which likely began when IG spreads hit cycle tights in Feb 2018, has begun and will continue in 2019, with HY and then eventually loans underperforming, as headwinds shift from technicals to fundamentals.”

To frame the temporal context of its gloomy assessment, Morgan Stanley writes that just one year ago not a cloud was to be seen on the credit horizon as “2017 was the ‘Goldilocks’ year” as growth expectations were rising on the back of a synchronized global expansion, investors could look forward to the possibility of tax cuts, and monetary policy remained very accommodative, aided by low inflation.

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Posted at 3:02 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

…And no one will be allowed special anything for attempting illegal entry. Learn what “legal” is and become one, it is LITERALLY as simple as that…

JB

Trump Tells Mexico To Ship Migrants Home Or See Border Permanently Closed
November 26, 2018

President Trump offered Mexico some advice on deporting migrants massed in Tijuana and threatening to storm the U.S., telling the neighboring nation in a tweet to send them “back to their countries” by plane or by bus – or face a permanent closure of the border.

Trump’s tweet followed a vow from Mexico to deport migrants who tried to illegally enter the U.S. The Trump administration has said asylum claims from members of a series of caravans originating in Central America must be processed outside the U.S., and that all those entering illegally will be denied. A federal judge has at least temporarily ruled against the policy, but the administration has taken steps to harden the border.

“Mexico should move the flag waving Migrants, many of whom are stone cold criminals, back to their countries,” Trump tweeted early Monday morning. “Do it by plane, do it by bus, do it anyway you want, but they are NOT coming into the U.S.A. We will close the Border permanently if need be. Congress, fund the WALL!”

The missive came after a chaotic Sunday that saw hundreds of migrants from a caravan that originated in Central American pushing past Mexican riot police and rushing the border at the port of entry in San Ysidro, Calif., in a major test for both U.S. border authorities and Mexican officials.

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Posted at 11:53 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I started out as a broker in 1984 and do not ever remember ANY firm “downgrading stocks to sell” prior to or during some devastating bear markets.  Should it make us wonder “why”?

Morgan Stanley Breaks Consensus, Downgrades US Stocks To Sell
November 26, 2018

The decoupling is over for the US economy and its stock market according to Morgan Stanley which has long held a bearish outlook on the US, but overnight officially downgraded US stocks to “sell”, expecting the S&P to end 2019 at 2,750, while double upgrading emerging market to overweight.

In a note release by Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheet, he expects a sharp slowdown for the US economy, along with a pick-up in global inflation that will keep monetary tightening intact, urging clients to get out of credit, load up on emerging markets and stock up on cash. In short, while 2018 was defined by “rolling bear markets”, 2019 will be the year of “turning.”

Additionally, Sheets writes that last year’s ‘tricky handoff’ of slower growth, higher inflation and tighter policy continues, and is now joined by key shifts in the relative trend of growth and policy. These macro shifts will mean turning points in five key market

relationships, and as Morgan Stanley explains, it differs from the consensus when it comes to: USD weakens, US and EU rates converge, EM outperforms, US stocks underperform, value beats growth, EM sovereigns outperform US HY.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Growth?

GM To Fire 15% Of Salaried Workers, Close 7 Plants
November 26, 2018

Update 3: In case you were wondering why GM would be doing this amid ‘the greatest recovery’ of all time and global synchronized growth; this chart should help!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

h/t @M_McDonough

*  *  *

Update 2: The cutbacks announced by GM Monday morning were more severe than most analysts expected – and were certainly steeper than leaked reports published late Sunday and early Monday had suggested.

After GM shares were halted pending news following a 2%+ jump after the open, Barra revealed that the company would shutter 7 plants (5 in North America and 2 international) after 2019, fire 15% of its salaried workforce and shift hiring priorities to more tech workers in a cost-cutting drive intended to save the company some $6 billion by the end of 2020 ($4.5 billion will come from cost savings, $1.5 billion from lower capital spending). As GM seeks more workers with “different skills”, it also plans to shift its investment focus toward electric and autonomous vehicles.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Is this surprising? Of course not. The only thing surprising is that Martin Armstrong is claiming “manipulation” when in the past he lambasted anyone claiming manipulation? Did he take some truth serum…?

Goldman Sachs Going Down on the Pi Target?
November 23, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund sued Goldman Sachs on the Pi Target, Wednesday, November 21st, 2018,  for allegedly conspiring against the Middle Eastern fund to further a criminal scheme by Malaysia’s scandal-plagued 1MDB. The suit, filed in a New York court on behalf of Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), names Goldman Sachs as well as former Goldman officials who were charged by the US Justice Department in indictments unsealed earlier this month. “This action seeks redress for a massive global conspiracy on the part of the defendants to defraud and injure plaintiffs,” said the lawsuit, which also named former executives from IPIC and its subsidiary Aabar Investments.

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Posted at 10:38 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is significant.

China And Russia Look To Ditch Dollar With New Payments System In Move To Avoid Sanctions
November 23, 2018

China and Russia are drafting a pact to boost the use of their national currencies in bilateral and international trade, underscoring their intent to cut their reliance on the US dollar.

The development of a new international financial payments system aims to address rising concerns over additional US sanctions and trade tariffs.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, during his visit to China earlier this month, said the two nations were discussing the launch of a new cross-border system for direct payment of trade invoices in the yuan and the rouble.

He also said discussions were under way to allow the use of China’s UnionPay credit card in Russia and Russia’s Mir card in China.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Debt kills”, you will shortly understand this concept…

Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment
November 21, 2018

It gets serious. Margin calls?

No one knows what the total leverage in the stock market is. But we know it’s huge and has surged in past years, based on the limited data we have, and from reports by various brokers about their “securities-based loans” (SBLs), and from individual fiascos when, for example, a $1.6 billion SBL to just one guy blows up. There are many ways to use leverage to fund stock holdings, including credit card loans, HELOCs, loans at the institutional level, loans by companies to its executives to buy the company’s shares, or the super-hot category of SBLs, where brokers lend to their clients. None of them are reported on an overall basis.

The only form of stock market leverage that is reported monthly is “margin debt” – the amount individual and institutional investors borrow from their brokers against their portfolios. Margin debt is subject to well-rehearsed margin calls. And apparently, they have kicked off.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Willem Middlekoop, Kyle Bass, and Luke Gromen regarding the dollar. A pretty interesting line of thought!