Posted at 10:40 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

See how an increase in global debt of only 1% on $220trn, an increase of $2.2trn+ is not, or barely being paid for by global gdp growth of 3% (0.03x$75trn=$2.25trn). Hello further erosion of purchasing power because only printing can “save” us – ‘til the card house collapses!

Gijsbert

GOP Tax Plan Could Trigger A Domino Effect That Sends Interest Rates Shooting Higher
September 27, 2017

The Republican tax plan unveiled Wednesday seeks to spark economic growth through lower rates but could punish one key market area: U.S. government bonds.

A key provision of the reform plan calls for the repatriation of cash that multinational companies are holding overseas. While details remain thin, foreign holdings will get softer tax treatment when they are brought home. Companies have about $2.5 trillion stashed abroad.

Treasurys fit into the equation because much of that overseas money is held in cash, cash equivalents or short-term investments — a category that includes government debt.

So, when companies start pulling that money back to the U.S., that presumably would mean selling of Treasurys, a move that would push up yields. Buyers will be needed for those bonds as government debt and deficits increase, which also could see a demand for higher rates.

“A lot of attention is bound to focus on the implications for U.S. equities of the Republicans’ updated tax reform ‘framework,'” John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

More…

Posted at 10:39 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Probably not a good idea to mess with a farmer? Seriously, this is only another baby step after Britain, the map of the world is going to look VERY different in the future…and so will currencies!

Hundreds Of Tractors Roll Into Barcelona To Protect Polling Stations Ahead Of Catalan’s ‘Banned’ Independence Referendum On Sunday After Police Seized More Than 2.5 Million Ballots
September 29, 2017

Hundreds of tractors rolled into Barcelona to protect polling stations ahead of the ‘banned’ Catalan independence referendum this Sunday.

Striking images capture the moment more than 500 of the heavy vehicles were driven in to protect the ‘2,315 polling stations all over the region’ – intended for the referendum that is said to have been banned by officials in Madrid.

Independence supporters, many wearing the colours of FC Barcelona or flying the estelada flag clung from the tractors in a loud, forceful show of strength.

clip_image001

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

More NFL scandal? Reverse racism?

Shock Report: Nfl’s Oakland Raiders Threw Game After White Qb Refused To Kneel For National Anthem
September 29, 2017

A new report from The Armstrong and Getty Radio Show has sent shockwaves throughout the sports world after it was claimed that members of the NFL’s Oakland Raiders may have purposefully allowed their star quarterback to get sacked multiple times after he refused to kneel during the National Anthem.

If true, this would essentially mean that an NFL football game was illegally thrown over anger that one of the teams star white players did not believe that kneeling during the nation’s anthem was the correct way to protest supposed racial injustice in America.

In other words, an epic level scandal.

During the anthem, virtually the entire team was seen kneeling other than the teams coaches and star quarterback Derek Carr. Unfortunately, this may have not set well with the team’s offensive line as they were apparently the players who spearheaded the entire idea to kneel as a team in the first.

“This is one hell of a scandal with the NFL, could ruin the whole league,” claimed the show before detailing the fact that Carr was sacked two times in a row on the teams second drive and that the team’s usually dependable center snapped the ball at the wrong time in three different instances. Extremely capable receivers also made multiple “weird” drops of passes thrown by Carr that T.V. announcers even noted at the time.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

What a stupid world we live in. Maybe give them all a “participation trophy” and they will feel better?

Therapists Pen Open Letter Blaming Trump For “National Mental Health Crisis”
September 30, 2017

A group of mostly liberal mental health experts has penned an anti-Trump hit piece that declares the president and his tens of millions of supporters responsible for a new mental health crisis that the so-called “experts” claim is hurting anyone who disagrees with Trump policies in general.

The letter, published by various liberal “news” outlets, essentially claims that numerous Trump policies, supported by over 60 million Americans, has led to an increase in extreme mental pain for those who voted for the losing candidate.

clip_image001[1]

“Increasingly, the weight of the current political environment burdens the hearts and minds of Americans and causes anxiety, preoccupation, deepening depression, feelings of helplessness and despair, disgust and horror,” the hyperbolic warning declares.

The authors then made sure to immediately add in not only claims of sexism against Trump and his supporters but the tried and true charge of racism as well.

“Not infrequently, it even rekindles the embers of prior trauma for women and members of marginalized groups whose sense of hard-won safety has been shaken to the core,” the “professionals” continued.

The screed then gets into fake news claims that “rampant dishonesty” is coming from the White House when any objective observer has seen that the establishment mainstream media (and websites publishing this open letter) are the very ones that push actual fake news themselves.

More…

Posted at 7:04 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Is Bali Volcano About To Blow? Mount Agung Begins To Pulsate As More Than 120,000 People Flee Surrounding Area
September 28, 2017

More than 120,000 people have fled their homes on the Indonesian island of Bali, fearful that a rumbling volcano could erupt at any time, disaster officials said.

Mount Agung, located 75 kilometres (47 miles) from the resort hub of Kuta, has been shaking since August and threatening to erupt for the first time since 1963 – a potential blow to the country’s lucrative tourism industry.

The volcano’s alert status was raised to the highest level last week after it spewed white smoke and sent tremors through the area.

Officials at an evacuation centre in the Klungkung district said 122,490 people had left their homes, taking refuge at nearly 500 makeshift shelters or moving in with relatives.

Around 62,000 people lived in the danger zone before the evacuations, according to Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency, but residents just outside the area have also left their homes out of fear.

More…


Our friend Robert correctly reminds us what we are missing while the press focuses on North Korea.

Bill

Confrontations and skirmishes between Russia and the US both in field and in delivered personal warnings have already occurred with not just the attack mentioned in the article but also in the killing of a Russian General several days ago and a missile strike the other day which is rumored to have killed at least 2 dozen special forces types who were meeting with ISIS leaders. Whether really true or not, we will not hear that from the general media so we are left to read such articles and wonder how long such hegemony based on covert weapon supplies will exist when found out by affected parties who want no part of this.

It is not just a real confrontation or more that seems at risk, we are watching fading US hegemony in the Middle East with a rapidly changing cast of characters from Qatar to Turkey. Just today, Putin was in Turkey meeting with Erdogan.

The shifting sands of Middle East are definitely in play as is the moral high ground of all the participants.

We are left to ponder the wisdom of it all as the global economy continues to slide downwards.

Cheers,

Robert

US and Terrorist Groups in Desperate Rearguard Actions in Syria
September 28, 2017

While the attention of the world has been focused on the increasingly strident rhetoric between the United States and North Korea, a rather different and potentially more dangerous series of moves has been playing out in Syria. In that context there have also been some significant revelations reflecting the true nature of the US’s tactics in Syria which the mainstream media have for the most part ignored.

Some commentators pointed to Trump’s pre-election statements about disengaging the US from endless wars as evidence of a change of policies should he be elected. Some even suggested that his post election posturing bellicosity was camouflage to his actual agreements with Russia and China. Such views ignore the long history of US foreign policy, and the fact that regardless of who occupies the White House, certain verities remain constant. Foremost amongst these is the maintenance of American hegemony, and the willingness to use force to ensure its longevity. Events of recent days have forcefully confirmed the realities of US foreign policies.

An organization called the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) have revealed the results of an extended investigation into the various terrorist groups in Syria, and more particularly, how and from whom they receive their seemingly endless flow of weapons and ammunition.

The weapons and ammunition used by the terrorists, the study revealed, have been organized by the CIA and the Pentagon, using two channels in particular, the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and a little known weapons supply company, Picatinny Arsenal, based in New Jersey.

More…



Jim/Bill,

Inflation? Naaaah.

Certainly upgrades cost a bit more, but……really?

Simply HEDONIC PRICE ADJUSTMENTS

This is a perfect adjunct to the Global Macro Monitor article:

What’s The Matter With Inflation?
September 29, 2017

The divergence of official inflation as measured by the government versus inflation realized by the consumer and businesses has never been greater, in our opinion. Go ask anybody on the street in America and Europe if think “doing life or business” is getting more expensive.

We have some thoughts on what is the matter with the inflation data:

Defining inflation – what is your definition of inflation? What are we trying to measure? The prices in a consumer basket of goods and services? Wages? Asset prices?

Measurement problems – the official measurement procedures seem archaic given the advent of big data in the past few years. Even Bloomberg is out with a recent piece warning the Fed about low-balling inflation due to measurement errors.

Low-Balling Inflation Puts the Fed at Risk

Beware of any metric that doesn’t fully reflect housing prices.

The U.S. has an inflation problem. It has nothing to do with inflation being too high or too low. Unlike the raging inflation of the 1970s, it doesn’t need to be solved with a lengthy and painful recession. Instead, it is a problem of measurement because the cost of housing — the single biggest expense for many Americans — isn’t explicitly included in the inflation data.

More…

Ford Chart Shows Stock on Cusp of Upside Explosion as Investors Eye $100k Pickup
September 29, 2017

Hang on a second… Are we talking a Ford, or a Ferrari?

Want all the bells and whistles on Ford Motor Co.’s (F) top-of-the-line pickup truck? Then you’d better be prepared to shell out more than $100,000 for the privilege. Ford’s new 2018 F-450 Super Duty Limited 4X4 truck, unveiled Thursday in Texas, tops six figures out the door when totally optioned.

But it’s no gimmick. Ford notes that more than half of the firm’s Super Duty pickup sales are pricey, high-end models. The company is selling what consumers want — and it’s trying hard to convey that message to Wall Street.

That’s likely to be a major theme next week on Ford’s September sales call.

Problem is, that message hasn’t synced up with Ford’s share price year to date. From their January peak, shares of Ford have shed more than 9% of their market value, underperforming the S&P 500 in dramatic fashion this year.

More…

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

I am amazed they have have even 50% support left. These millionaire gladiators should know what they are. Cannon fodder for circus & entertainment purposes, not political experts. Compliments of JB.

Jim

NFL Favorability Gets Nearly Cut In Half After Anthem Protests
September 29, 2017

A new poll shows that the favorability rating of the NFL among Donald Trump supporters was nearly cut in half after more than 200 players kneeled during the national anthem last week.

Morning Consult conducted the survey, and the results are a very bad sign for the NFL.

They released the following data in a press release to The Daily Caller:

NFL’s Brand Favorability Drops To Lowest Point Since Morning Consult Started Tracking: The NFL’s net favorability has dropped from 30% on September 21 to 17% on September 28. On September 21, 25% of Trump supporters said they had a very favorable view of the NFL and 11% had a very unfavorable view. As of Sept 28, those numbers have dramatically changed with 33% of Trump supporters say they have a very unfavorable view of the NFL and 16% report having a very favorable view.

More…

Posted at 7:01 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Unusual Labor Statistics Ahead?
– Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Revised to 3.06% (Previously 3.03%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter
– Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.88%), Versus 2.68% in First-Quarter
– Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 2.77% (Previously 2.80%), Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter
– Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Series Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Turning Increasingly to Renewed, Deepening Downturn

“No. 913: Second-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Third Estimate “

www.shadowstats.com

Wake Up America – The Dollar Is Going To Zero
September 29, 2017

For news to be read and understood by a great number of people, it must be simple, sensational and forgettable. Most individuals are not interested in “heavy” news or complicated issues. Just compare television and newspapers today to say 50 years ago. At that time, newspapers had very few pictures but instead covered serious matters with in depth analysis. Same with television. In the 1960s there was serious news and many programmes which raised important issues in society or politics, which many people listened to and grasped.

Today everything must be dumbed down to the lowest common denominator of readers or viewers. For a paper to sell or a television station to receive advertising revenue, any news must be superficial and short. Most content must have an entertainment or gossip value. Same with television. All serious matters are either left out or covered very briefly. We are now in the age of instant gratification. Viewers’ interest can only be kept by short superficial language, lots of big images and constant change of focus. On television, no camera position must remain on one subject for more than a few seconds because people’s attention span only lasts for a brief moment.

THE AGE OF MISINFORMATION AND IGNORANCE

This has led to most people either becoming ignorant or misinformed. The political correctness contributes to the misinformation since, to a great extent, minorities determine what is politically correct. The French lawyer and politician, instrumental in the French Revolution was well aware of this:

clip_image002

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

MSM will continue to try and convince us that there is nothing to worry about. Of course there isn’t, because we may have already ended the planet.

Michio KaKu, Fukushima the End of Humanity: Nuclear Radiation to Cause Massive Killing in USA, UK and Canada
September 29, 2017

Nearly six years have passed since an earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed 16,000 people and caused nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. New research now suggests that the radiation released by the nuclear disaster may have lingering effects on fish—but that the risk posed to human beings from consumption, thanks in part to strong regulation, is maxim.

10 days ago from this writing, the sardine fishery of British Columbia, Canada was reported to have “inexplicably” collapsed. Simply no sardines were caught and the fleet went home, empty-handed. Starfish and seal populations in that region are also collapsing.

We’ve heard now about three complete meltdowns that are occurring at the afflicted power plant at Fukushima – but we’ve never heard about the fact that there are actually 6 reactors at the site! We know that this week, 2 separate typhoons (the term for hurricanes in the western Pacific) will be colliding exactly over Fukushima this week, all the better to disperse the unfathomable tonnage of hot particles into the Pacific Ocean Basin, set to do further ruin to the already-collapsing ecosystems throughout this immense area.

Were there to be a fire spread, due to the hundreds of unsecured nuclear fuel rods at the plant today, a chain reaction could occur and “The Northern Hemisphere could easily be facing an extreme fallout situation, where everybody would have to shelter indoors for several months or more,” according to Christina Consolo, Founder of Nuked Radio. When interviewed by Russia Today, Consolo’s assessment was that the worst case scenario could play out into the deaths of “billions of people. A true apocalypse.”

More…

Posted at 2:28 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Courtesy of CIGA JB

Jim

DOJ files suit against company for allegedly not hiring Americans
September 29, 2017

The Department of Justice announced Thursday it has filed a lawsuit against a Colorado corporation for allegedly discriminating against U.S. workers.

The complaint alleges that in 2016, Crop Production discriminated against at least three United States citizens by refusing to employ them as seasonal technicians in El Campo, Texas, because Crop Production preferred to hire temporary foreign workers under the H-2A visa program.

“In the spirit of President Trump’s Executive Order on Buy American and Hire American, the Department of Justice will not tolerate employers who discriminate against U.S. workers because of a desire to hire temporary foreign visa holders,” Attorney General Jeff Sessions said in a statement. “… Where there is a job available, U.S. workers should have a chance at it before we bring in workers from abroad.”

This is the first complaint filed stemming from the “Protecting U.S. Workers Initiative,” which was launched on March 1.

A Civil Rights Division official told Fox News that since the initiative’s launch, the division has opened 29 investigations of “potential discrimination against U.S. workers based on a hiring preference for foreign visa workers.”

More…

FEMA Director Urges Americans To Develop “A True Culture Of Preparedness” But No One Is Listening
September 27, 2017

It looks like preppers aren’t that crazy after all.

clip_image001

FEMA’s new director, Brock Long, has repeatedly said that Americans do not have a “culture of preparedness,” something that is much-needed with the startling uptick in natural disasters. Long has only been the director of FEMA since June 20 of this year and already has had to deal with a historic number of disasters in this short period of time.

It appears that Mr. Long has a mindset of self-reliance based on a couple of recent statements he has made to the media, but the MSM doesn’t seem too interested in his ideas about fostering a culture of preparedness, despite the practicality and essential nature of his suggestions.

First, in an interview from Sept. 11 that I personally only heard about yesterday, FEMA’s new director, Brock Long, spoke with journalists to discuss the response to Hurricane Irma. In the interview, he said some things that vindicate all of us who have spent time and money working toward being prepared.

More…

Jim/Bill,

Let’s not forget one, not so tiny, factor…

clip_image001[1]

If you took away Foodstamps, you’d have breadlines!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

We Are Already In Depression (If Borrowing Money Is Not Income)
September 28, 2017

Do you consider debt as income? Before you answer that, let’s perform a thought experiment. Imagine that you had taken a long cruise last fall and charged $10,000 to an American Express card. When you did your taxes this year, would have told the IRS that you had $10,000 income from American Express? Of course you wouldn’t. Suppose a major oil company issues $800 million worth of bonds to develop a new old field. Would the company report that as income to the stockholders or the IRS? Of course they wouldn’t. I am sure those sound like silly questions as the answer is a self evident “NO!” We do not consider borrowed money as income. It is a liability that must be paid back. Then why do we count Federal Government debt when measuring national income? I will leave speculation as to the “why” to the readers and focus on the fact that we do count new Treasury Debt as income.

The modern concept of GDP was first developed by the Department of Commerce in 1934. Commerce commissioned Nobel Laureate Simon Kuznets of the National Bureau of Economic Research to develop a set of national economic accounts. Professor Kuznets headed a small group within the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce’s Division of Economic Research. I picture them meeting to develop statistical measures that would help the government to determine if the economy was recovering from the Depression. They are debating on how to measure all of the various sources of income. One economist suggests that regardless of the source of his income, there are only two things he can do… Spend it or invest it and we know how to measure consumption and investment (& savings). This was the foundation of the expenditure approach to measure GDP. I can imagine another one of the economists suggesting that when we sell more to other countries, the excess should be added to national income and subtracted if we buy more than we sell (Balance of Trade). Then another economist suggests that there is a third alternative to the idea that he will either spend or invest his income and that is paying taxes. Since the government takes a portion of National Income and spends it, they decided to add Government spending into the GDP calculations. While each component of this basic formula for GDP breaks down into hundreds or thousands of sub-components, the final calculation is:

GDP= PI + BT + GS

More…

Posted at 10:49 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Why, because they are not hackable?

Navy Returns to Compasses and Pencils to Help Avoid Collisions at Sea
September 27, 2017

WASHINGTON — Urgent new orders went out earlier this month for United States Navy warships that have been plagued by deadly mishaps this year.

More sleep and no more 100-hour workweeks for sailors. Ships steaming in crowded waters like those near Singapore and Tokyo will now broadcast their positions as do other vessels. And ships whose crews lack basic seamanship certification will probably stay in port until the problems are fixed.

All seemingly obvious standards, military officials say, except that the Navy only now is rushing the remedies into effect after two collisions in two months left 17 sailors dead, despite repeated warnings about the looming problems from congressional watchdogs and the Navy’s own experts dating to 2010.

“Many of the issues we’re discussing today have been known to Navy leaders for years. How do we explain that, Admiral?” Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican chairman of the Armed Services Committee, demanded of Adm. John Richardson, the chief of naval operations, at a hearing last week.

More…

Posted at 1:42 PM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

September 27, 2017
Private investor Gordon Long contends the price of gold will shock the world when it revalues to reflect the massive amount of currency that has been printed globally. Long explains, “That is correct, and it won’t be something that is gradual, it will be very abrupt.  The system will break . . . and the financial markets will freeze up.  When they come out of the other end of that freeze, and it may be a number of weeks because the next crisis will be global and much more complex than 2008.  We could control that with the Federal Reserve . . . and this one you cannot do because you cannot get agreement with all those countries.  Never mind understanding the complexity.  So, when we come out on the other side . . . there will be a massive revaluation in the U.S. dollar. . . .  Gold could jump to $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce or something like that. . . . It will be massive.  They will have to put some stability in the monetary system, and the only way they can do it is having something they cannot print.  This is what has gotten us into this problem.  We have to get back to sound money.  It will have to be gold.  What percentage of backing will determine what the value the gold will be.”


On the value of the U.S. dollar, Long contends, “Personally, I think the revaluation of the U.S. dollar will be well over 70% devaluation. It doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end.  It just means you have to go through this to reset.  Those who prepare and understand why this is happening and watch for the signals, there’s going to be fortunes transferred.  They are being transferred right now, frankly.  One other big caveat on gold prices going way up, expect the government to tax it like you have never seen before.”


Long says the stock market hitting one all-time high after another, despite all the economic headwinds, shows the public is in a “delusional phase.” The latest nuclear war threat from North Korea shows the extreme delusion going on, and Long contends, “This is about as clear of an example as you are going to get.  This is more serious than the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the fact the market has not even blinked during this tells you we no longer know how to price risk.  It’s not being priced correctly. . . . It’s almost pure speculation at this point, and maybe straight out gambling.”

More…