Posted at 9:58 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

       Gold is not being allowed to rise with the trade at $1,568.90 down $1.20 after hitting a low at $1,564.40 with a high to beat at $1,571.80. Silver is also not allowed to rally and is trading at $17.605 down 7.2 cents yet recovering from a middle of the night low at $17.525 with the high to beat not that far away at $17.650. The US Dollar continues its stratospheric rise with its value pegged at 98.635, up 4.1 points after being pushed up to 98.725 with the low at 98.580. All of this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Bill Holter posted last night’s finale “and so it begins”.

      The Emerging Markets Currency Watch should really be showing us some things in the very near future but for now we see the Venezuelan Currency holding Gold’s value at 15,669.39 Bolivar taking another 42.95 away from the price with Silver at 175.830 Bolivar showing another 1.049 in value being removed. In Argentina, the Peso’s price for Gold is now gauged at 95,740.46, proving how strong the push lower is, this time around, with Silver doing the same taking away 3.93 A-Pesos with the price at 1,074.61. In Turkey, Gold’s value is now pegged at 9,480.59 proving a reduction of 7.32 Lira with Silver losing 0.440 with its price now at 106.355 T-Lira.

      February Silver’s Delivery Demands is proving an increase in purchases with the Demand Count now at 5 posted up on the board with no trades done so far since the ICE reopened. This proves an increase of 4 more additional buy orders after a Volume of 7 was posted on the board yesterday that had a trading range between $17.715 and $17.695 with the Comex paper contracts forcing the delivery price to close sharply lower (than any real purchases) at $17.573. A nice and fair close, in the eyes of the commissioned regulators, as we wait to see what the DOJ’s criminal element oversight committee tells us what they think. The Overall Open Interest in Silver still remains elevated but is showing a reduction in count of 1,986 Overnighters leaving the total at 221,983 Obligations and after the entire day of trade only showed a Volume of 67,395 inside the March contracts end of trade quote. As of this morning, and during the ICE session, March Silver’s Volume is at 33,681 showing how low yesterday’s activity was compared to right now. James Mc from LeMetroPoleCafé has shown us over the years that these Volumes have exceeded the Open Interest many many times, as we slowly watch this part of the equation slow to a crawl. This should be considered a “tell” for our future price moves.

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands now offers a count of 978 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts proving a reduction of 605 contracts that either got receipts here, in London, or was an entry or exit of some sort of spread trade. Who the hell knows what’s going on with these Crap Numbers that Comex gives? This morning’s Volume inside the delivery contract has a post of 17 and with a trading range between $1,565.20 and $1,561.00 with the last purchase at $1,564.20. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 657,956 Overnighters proving the reduction of 827 paper contracts. 

      And So It Begins, Force Majeure is being applied to the manufacturing sector and to the buyers of commodities over in China. The reason of course, is this Coronavirus, that is being investigated as a manmade concoction, with Harvard Professor Charles Lieber under arrest. What Is Force Majeure? “Force majeure refers to a clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes that interrupt the expected course of events and restrict participants from fulfilling obligations”. You can obtain more understanding here.

      What we wonder about most is the timeline of events outside the Virus Infection/Death rate, and its spread, which is rumored to have started very early in December and the way HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) came in and added all those additional short contracts in Gold, that flooded the Comex just before the outbreak occurred. GATA confidant Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics wrote about the issue last November. Timing is everything and the word “coincidence” is sickening to investors, especially when many of us say and think, “there are no coincidences.” The Diamond Princess Cruise Ship is proving an infection count of 174 showing an increase of 39 in count as the NYP plays with the number of people onboard (3,700 from 2,500??). Let us also recall the incubation guessing’s that increased from 2, to 6, to 14, to 24, over the past few weeks, helping to prove the news is still not the news and we are not getting trustworthy data, unless the governments and their mouthpieces are learning the curve as we do.

      It’s hard to remain positive in this environment, but it is healthy to do so, and it makes the smile on our face easy to keep. So, please stay positive and know, that “Chance Prefers The Prepared”, in all things, as we wait for more cancellations via Forced Majeure and the eventual removal of the manipulated shorts from Comex, as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 11:21 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

David Rosenberg “smells a rat”!

David Rosenberg: This Turbocharged Debt Cycle Will End Miserably — It’s Just A Matter Of When
February 7, 2020

It is clear that it would have been a very hard sell a year ago that every single risk-on asset class from equities, to corporate bonds, to commodities would end up rallying as much as they did in 2019.

And so perhaps the message for 2020 is to fade all the optimism since fading the pessimism a year ago paid off very well. The sharp slide in Treasury yields this past year does not exactly comport with the risk-on view that has morphed into the consensus forecast.

Fed policy, the trajectory of GDP growth and global economic fundamentals in general all tell a cautionary tale. Both bonds and stocks can’t be right at this moment in time.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and so it begins.

China Starts Giving ‘Force Majeure’ Slips to Virus-Hit Companies
February 11, 2020

A car-parts supplier became one of the earliest known companies to obtain a “force majeure” certificate in China that may help it avoid penalties for breaching contractual obligations because of the coronavirus outbreak.

The manufacturer, eastern China-based Huida Manufacturing (Huzhou) Co., supplies steering-system components to a plant of Peugeot maker PSA Group in Africa, a Chinese trade body said Tuesday.

The organization, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said it issued the certificate on Feb. 2. More companies have since received the document, which is recognized by enterprises, governments, trade associations and customs officials in more than 200 places around the world, CCPIT said.

More…

Posted at 9:59 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

      Gold is trading lower in our early morning (USA based) report with the price at $1,573.20, down $6.30 inside another tight trading range between $1,576.40 and $1,569.10. Silver is exactly like Gold, hardly moving, and with almost no trading volume at all, with its trade at $17.71, down 7.1 cents and close to the low of $17.680 with the high at $17.800. The US Dollar is still the go-to currency during our most recent crisis with its value now pegged at 98.705, down 0.009 of a point inside a trading range between 98.805 and 98.685. Of course, all of this happened while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after another central banker jumped the ship of rats.

      Our Emerging Markets Currency watch is proving a “mix in movements” so far this morning. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 15,712.34 Bolivar, shaving 20.97 off the top with Silver at 176.879 reducing its value by 0.449 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold gauged at 95,812.62 Peso’s adding more value as another 196.01 Peso’s was put into its price with Silver at 1,078.54 Peso’s, it too gaining 1.28 in value. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold now rests at 9,487.91 proving an additional 2.84 in value with Silver at 106.795 Lira, shaving off 0.109 of a T-Lira.

       February Silver’s Delivery Demands are showing a count of 1 proving that single lot order added yesterday was a new trade and showing that yesterday’s 7 count demand for physicals, might have been delivered, here or in London, or that it may have been used as a spread entry/exit. As of this morning, we have another 1 added to the mix under the Volume column and with a price at $17.695. The Overall Open Interest in Comex Silver is now at 223,969 Overnighters, showing only 36 contracts being added during yesterday’s slow trade day. The Open Interest Column has been our focus for years and with that, the Volume as well. Things have sure turn silent within Comex Silver’s trading arena (if we can call it that anymore). The Volume Column is all about the contracts that are traded throughout the day, showing us the control the Algo’s have over the price. Volume is also another way to gauge how the governing bodies get paid as well. They get fees (commissions) when a trade is entered into or exited out of and the Volume is their tally, or said another way, it’s how we can gauge the profits they make watching over all the illegal activities. Now, consider all the commodities that are traded and see the things we do, this system pays them well, to look the other way, as the Algo’s swing against the real trader. As of right now the Volume in the most “liquid” month (March) in Silver is at 18,482 with the OI at 135,533. What happened? Are the algo’s leaving this side of the precious metal’s ratio keeping only Gold controlled?

      February Gold’s Demand Count now has a total of 1,583 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 52 posted up on the board with a trading range between $1,570.90 and $1,565.20 with the last buy at $1,568.30. This proves a reduction of 146 receipts for physicals from yesterday’s numbers and with the yesterday’s closing Volume at 122 replacing all but 24 contracts from Monday’s OI tally. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now rests at 658,783 Overnighters, proving the shorts had to add 3,635 more pieces of paper in order to stay the price. April Gold is the primary traded contract at the Comex, its Open Interest is at 483,687 with a Volume of 94,335 so far this morning. This is slightly lower than the Algo norm yet it helps to show the differences between the 2 manipulated metals and how one is presently not trading like the other.

      The international banking sector has been culling its brokers for years now. As of this morning, another cull occurred this time Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit announced today, it expects to cut 6,000 jobs and close 450 branches in Italy. They expect to reduce their body count by 8,000 position by 2023, those that wish to stay are told to “learn to code”, which means blockchaining everything (by 2023?) is in our future.

      The Diamond Princess Cruise ship has no news updates whatsoever after yesterday missive. The idea of having over 5% infected within 2 weeks helps prove our issue that the Chinese governments tallies are off (way off). Another concerning point is this viral epidemic maybe have started in the beginning of December with some noting a Dec 3rd start date. We’ll wait for more data, but also warn that the prepared mind is a steady one, and a good thing to have, in a crisis.

      Keep the attitudes positive no matter what, have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 11:40 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

        Gold is moving higher in the early morning with the trade at $1,575.30, up $1.90 after reaching $1,580.20 before the control was put in with the low at $1,571.50. Silver is following along with the trade at $17.755 up 6.3 cents after it reached $17.805 with the low at $17.665. The US Dollar is still way elevated with the last quote at 98.510, down 6.1 points and close to the low at 98.49 with the high up at 98.610. Of course, all of this happened already, after the ICE opening (Sunday 3pm pst), before the Comex open, the London close, and after Kyle Bass (imo) unleashed a proper twitter response towards China’s so called “Face Saving Love” it shows towards its own.

      We have nothing but green showing up in the Emerging Markets Currency Watch for the first currencies of mankind. For instance, in Venezuela, Gold is now valued at 15,733.31 Bolivar giving the holder a 57.93 gain over the weekend with Silver at 177.328 Bolivar, showing an increase of 0.399. Argentina’s currency now has Gold trading at 95,616.61 Peso’s, an increase of 523.53 with Silver gaining 3.63 Peso’s with its current price at 1,077.26. In Turkey, Gold’s value is now at 9,485.07 Lira, proving a strong gain of 88.76 with Silver proving a gain of 0.849 T-Lira with the early morning price at 106.904.

      February Silver’s Delivery Demands remain low and steady, that is if you believe what you are seeing, with the demand count now at 7, unchanged from Friday and after a Volume of 6 was posted up on the board Friday without any price. So far this morning there is no activity at all within the delivery system. Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 223,933 Overnighters proving things may not be so comfortable for the shorts as 1,182 pieces of paper Silver left The Comex.

      February Gold’s Delivery requests now sits at 1,729 demands for physical and with a Volume of 44 up on the board with a trading range between $1,573.40 and $1,568.60 with the last trade at $1,571.60. This proves a drop in demand of 333 fully paid for contracts that either got receipts for physicals here, or in London, via the EFP express. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now at 655,148 Overnighters proving the shorts had to add 2,658 more contracts to steady the trade like it did.

      China’s issues are many. At present they are the largest manufacturer on the planet and the largest in population. The Coronavirus, regardless of where it came from or who’s to blame for its release, now has a supposed total of 80 cities in lockdown and they’re starting to add China’s capital city Beijing to the shutdown mix with outside vehicles and personnel no longer allowed to enter “parts” of the city. There is no question in my mind that the official numbers are highly suspicious, and should be considered untrustworthy. We look for different ways to gauge what the true infection numbers are and with that there seems to be an experiment going on with a cruise ship that is sequestered, and in lockdown. 

The Diamond Princess cruise ship, which is quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, has a total count of 2,500 (?) people onboard with a supposed infection count of 136 after being out and about for 2 weeks. Those onboard are not allowed to leave, as the infection count went from 70 to 136 since they last reported the count proving an increase of 66, almost doubling the last count. The odds of Japan allowing those without the infection to leave the cruise ship is slipping day by day as the infections reached over 5%. The situation for those on board, and for the family members of those stuck in harm’s way, have to be trying to say the least and our prayers go out to all. Those of us who distrust any government stats can view the ships information as the infection unfolds. The cruise ship, in short, has become a petri dish. An enclosed and isolated situation that bears watching as the rest of the planet observes.

      We remain certain, that the creativity of mankind can find ways to contain the situation. At present, the supply system we are all used to, will start to go wonky in short order. Who now is willing to receive any package from China, let alone a cargo ship loaded with containers? Even though this issue is with us, we remain positive and steadfast. The first currencies of mankind should help keep ones purchasing power in order as we expect investors everywhere to start looking for ways to protect the retirements from the onslaught of supply disruptions and the possible wild currency swings. Keep the attitudes positive, a smile on your face, no matter what, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 11:25 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

So, copper is worth less now than in 2008? Really? What does that say?

image

Bill Holter’s Commentary

What does this mean?

2019 Worst Year for Air Freight Demand Since 2009
February 5, 2020

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released full-year 2019 data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), fell by 3.3% compared to 2018 while capacity (AFTK) rose by 2.1%. This was the first year of declining freight volumes since 2012, and the weakest performance since the global financial crisis in 2009 (when air freight markets contracted by 9.7%).

In the month of December, cargo volumes contracted 2.7% year-on-year while capacity rose 2.8%.

Air cargo’s performance in 2019 was dampened by weak growth in global trade of just 0.9%. The sector’s underperformance was also due in particular to slowing GDP growth in manufacturing-intensive economies. Softer business and consumer confidence, along with falling export orders, also contributed to air freight struggles.

There are signs that confidence and orders could pick up in 2020. It is too early to say what long-term effects will be seen from the impact of restrictions associated with combatting the coronavirus outbreak.

More…

Posted at 3:08 PM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Financial analyst and cycle expert Bo Polny called for a big market crash by the end of 2019. It did not happen. There was a good reason why. Polny says, “Billions and billions of dollars were pumped into the market at the end of the year to not let the crash happen. That is the number one reason the markets did not crash in December. That takes us to the second point, and that is the cycle is not over yet. . . . That is still pointing to a very big event in the first or second quarter of this year and the latter part of the year, too. This is not over. We are not out of the woods.”

Bo also says, “We have seen the highs in the stock market . . . and come this Wednesday, it will be the start of something not so nice in the markets. We have a down cycle that began on Friday February 7th, and the markets are expected to continue down all of next week.”

Polny thinks this down cycle for the markets will not stop until late April and forecasts there could be a “35% correction.”

So, will this sink President Trump’s chances for a second term? Polny, who has coined the term “God’s Trump Cycles,” says, “Absolutely not, according to Daniel’s timeline. It is two cycles of 1,260 days. This April 21st is only the completion of the first half of the cycle of 1,260 days. Then we have the second cycle of 1,260 days taking us into the end of 2023. So, Trump’s election is this November, and he’s going to continue to be President, and the cycle doesn’t end until December of 2023. Does that mean you don’t need to vote for Trump? The answer is 100% you must go vote for Trump. Here’s the thing you must understand whether you like Trump or not. The bottom line is the math calculations I present to you in my PDF (found for free in the “After the Interview” section) presentation is beyond any form of mathematical luck. It’s impossible for this to be luck.”

More…

Posted at 11:16 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

The definition of a rabbit hole? Courtesy of JB.

Bill

BREAKING: Treasury Dept Hands Over Highly Sensitive Financial Records About Hunter Biden to Expanding GOP Senate Probe
February 6, 2020

GOP Senators Grassley (IA) and Johnson (WI) this week requested the official travel documents of Hunter Biden from the US Secret Service.

The Senators are expanding their investigation and just received “evidence of questionable origin” from the Treasury Department.

The Senate committee is also seeking documents on Hunter Biden from the State Department, Justice Department and the National Archives.

Yahoo reported: (emphasis our own)

The Treasury Department has complied with Republican senators’ requests for highly sensitive and closely held financial records about Hunter Biden and his associates and has turned over “‘evidence’ of questionable origin” to them, according to a leading Democrat on one of the committees conducting the investigation.

More…

Posted at 10:49 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

What we call the “norm” in precious metals is the idea that both products are not allowed to have any form of follow thru to the upside, only the down, with this morning being no different after yesterday’s low volume and higher price moves with Gold now at $1,569.50, down 50 cents after the trade reached $1,573.60 with the low not as far away as the high at $1,566.20. There cannot be a free moving market without Silver leading the way lower (almost every time) with its trade at $17.715, down 10.3 cents and close to the low at $17.695 with the high up at $17.855. The US Dollar is still being supported in value, even though we and a few other nations, are printing insane amounts money in order to stay in place with its value pegged at 98.48, up 10.4 points and right beside its high of 98.515 with the low at 98.300. Of course all of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the Treasury responded to the GOP requests for Hunter Biden, Burisma info.

Today’s emerging markets currency watch is flat as can be and on both sides of yesterday’s pricings. In Venezuela, Golds value is now at 15,675.38 adding back 8.99 in Bolivar value with Silver at 176.929 losing 0.399 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, Gold’s value now rests at 95,093.08 Peso’s showing a gain of 96.62 overnight with Silver at 1,073.63 Peso’s a reduction of 0.90 of a Peso. The Turkish Lira’s value for Gold now sits at 9,396.31 showing a gain of 1.3 Lira with Silver at 106.059 proving a loss of 0.282 of a Lira.

February Silver Delivery Demands now has a count of 6 posted up on the board proving a reduction of 5 with no additional purchases done during yesterday’s activity. So far this morning we still see no activity in the delivery system at all. Yesterday’s activity proved an increase in Open Interest showing how Silver would have been priced higher had the paper shorts not been allowed to pile on more control above as the +25% paper over physical target the CFTC has been discussing with the count now at 225,115 Overnighters, proving an increase of 1,373 pieces of paper with questionable backing. Now our next question in regards to the physical warehouse count and the CFTC approved paper supply for Silver; Are the registered and eligible inventory’s combined, or are they separated, when it comes to the +25% allowance of paper? If the answer is combined, they shouldn’t be, and if they are, Hello! Get your physicals out while you can.

February Gold’s Delivery count is now at 2,063 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 105 up on the board with a trading range between $1,567.70 and $1,563.60 with the last trade of course at the low. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 652,490 Overnighters proving a very slight short paper exodus tallying 338 Obligations.

We keep hearing more and more “restrictions on travel” almost everywhere on the planet due to the Coronavirus. Cruise ships are kept away from the docks as some people onboard have contracted the virus and have already spread the contagion to everyone else onboard. Now we are hearing the rumor; … “For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse,” Zhan Qingyuan, the director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital… Most of China is in a state of dismay because one side says “panic” and the other side (government officials) says “remain calm”, yet the side that says remain calm is now claiming the Whistleblower Dr. that gave the world the warning is not dead from the virus and is sequestering the story. If the good Dr. is alive, why not have him in front of a camera saying so? While the world waits for the “truth in numbers”, we are still seeing the reasons for Boy Scouting in preparation.

Prayers are indeed in order for the world’s population. If the virus is bad enough to cause dock workers in So. Africa to refuse to unload ships from China then one has to question “is this virus airborne alone, or can surfaces also contain and spread the weaponized virus? Then this story came out supporting the very idea of a surface spread. Let’s face it, the Just In Time Delivery System has already taken a hit, supplies will dry up as more and more fears spread action across the globe. Staying in place may be what the world has to deal with.

Also of note, I had forgotten to post the Velocity of Money chart during yesterday’s missive when I wrote … “What’s worse (maybe) is the Velocity of Money, which has made a New All Time Low (since the first quarter of 1959) and while we’re observing the Federal Reserve print machines churning in overdrive at the same time the 2 other most populated nations are doing the same….”

Regardless of all the issues (real or not), have a great weekend, keep that smile on your face and a positive attitude in the head no matter what … and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net