Posted at 9:31 AM (CST) by & filed under

March 4, 2018
By Greg Hunter’s (Early Sunday Release)
Professional trader Gregory Mannarino says the new Fed Head, Jerome Powell, caused the market to sell off last week, not Trump tariff talk. Powell blurted out in Congressional testimony that the “U.S. is not on a sustainable fiscal path.”  Mannarino explains the truth bomb Chairman Powell dropped, “I think this guy was nervous.  I think he’s getting shook up here.  I think the weight of his position is weighing on him a little too much, and that is what sparked the sell-off.  It wasn’t the tariffs.  This was Powell, and the markets are saying that this guy really might not have our backs as much as Yellen did.”


Posted at 10:03 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

‘All a man needs to know to make money, is to appraise conditions.’ Jesse Livermore. (1877-1940).

‘You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.’ Ayn Rand. (1905-1982).

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This was a topic in yesterday’s recorded call, “who is going to buy all the treasuries for sale”?

China’s Holdings of U.S. Debt Down 10%
March 2, 2018

( – Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury securities are 10.0 percent below their peak level which was attained in November 2013, according to data published by the U.S. Treasury.

U.S. government debt held by entities in the People’s Republic of China peaked at $1,316,700,000,000 in November 2013, according to the Treasury.

At that time, the total debt of the federal government was $17,217,151,645,105.86. That debt included both $4,936,025,387,118.78 in “intragovernmental debt,” which is money the Treasury has borrowed out of federal trust funds (such as the Social Security trust funds); and $12,281,126,257,987.08 in debt held by the public, which includes marketable U.S. Treasury securities such as Treasury bills, notes and bonds.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Pensions will be the biggest disaster because the public will feel it personally…!

Steve Westly: California Pensions Are Its $206 Billion Elephant In The Room
July 31, 2017

Jerry Brown has been a strong governor and a moderating force on budget issues. But when it comes to pensions, the new state budget projects that California has nearly $206 billion in “unfunded liabilities” for the state’s two public pension funds.

Over the last eight years, we added $100 billion in unfunded retirement liability for these funds. This is the elephant in the room of state finances, and it is time we got serious about it.

You probably haven’t heard much about the looming pension crisis because elected officials don’t like talking about it and it’s easy for them to kick the can down the road: they can make promises to public employees now that won’t come due until they’re out of office.


Posted at 10:53 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

You’ve got that right JB. I would love to see the real numbers of how many unjustified shootings have been done by NRA members?



Although this article exposes the Fed’s position on being short volatility, and must attempt to unwind it, it does show the simplistic thinking of the Fed’s models. The money never went into circulation as the models implied.

Powell, it appears, understands this. Theory and reality are two separate entities.

“First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?”

To put it in layman’s terms, all the QE never went into establishing an economic resurgence. It’s not possible.

The QE went to banks to bail them out, and any excess was directed into buying back Treasury Bond issuance and, of course, with the help of the Fed shorting volatility, creating a false prosperity in equities. (Financial institutions purchase stocks with the Fed’s blessing and obtain cheap volatility as a hedge. No different than when the Fed’s PPT buys S&P futures, allowing institutions to short them and buy stocks to arbitrage the action….allowing the equity markets to rise).

It’s a closed loop! The money never found its way into the economy. It stayed within the inner circle of the financial establishment. Onto bank balance sheets, into government bonds, and equities. The public was hoodwinked.

That’s why the overt appearance of inflation never showed itself. But even so, when you look at 10oz cans of coffee in the supermarket (down from 16oz), or 12 oz. boxes of pasta (down from 16oz.) we get a revelation. Hell, even the huge Coffee rolls at Dunkin Donuts years ago, are now no larger than a regular jelly donut.

The deception goes beyond packaging sizes.

Marie Callender’s pies are now shown as having 9 slices, so the calories and fats are lower than the old 8 slices per pie.

Ever try to cut a pie into 9 slices?

Yes Virginia, inflation is here, but nothing like what you’ll see coming down the road should the Fed ever let the banking system release the QE into the economy!

The public is being taken for a ride every which way they turn.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Fed Chair Powell’s Admission: “The Fed Has A Short Volatility Position”
January 6, 2018

For years, market watchers and Fed skeptics had warned that the record low volatility “blanket” that has fallen like a pall over the comatose market was the result of Fed actions, both direct or indirect. And while they mostly spoke metaphorically (although back in 2012 we observed a distinct shift in the VIX futs when the current head of the Fed’s trading desk, Simon Potter, replaced Brian Sack), we now have explicit confirmation that the Fed’s “short vol” position appears to be rather literal.

This is what the next Fed Chair, Jerome Powell – who is scheduled to replace Janet Yellen next month – said during the October 23-24, 2012 FOMC meeting – just one month after the Fed announced QE3, as today’s just released 2012 FOMC transcripts revealed:

I have concerns about more purchases. As others have pointed out, the dealer community is now assuming close to a $4 trillion balance sheet and purchases through the first quarter of 2014. I admit that is a much stronger reaction than I anticipated, and I am uncomfortable with it for a couple of reasons.



Holy shit!

Saying “hello” as a greeting to someone is now politically incorrect! And possibly a crime?

“While the first daughter and now-White House adviser did not take part in the June 2016 meeting, she exchanged greetings with the Russian attorney and a lobbyist who attended the meeting as they stepped off an elevator, a person familiar with the exchange.

So it seems politeness is now treason?”

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Mueller Now Probing Ivanka’s “Greetings Exchange” With Russian Lawyer
January 6, 2018

It’s not been a great few days for Jivanka. Following news that Jared Kushner’s company is being investigated by the SEC, The LA Times reports  that special counsel Robert Mueller is now investigating Ivanka Trump’s ‘interactions’ with a Russian lawyer and lobbyist.


Mueller’s team is looking into any interactions the attorney, Natalia Veselnitskaya, and lobbyist, Rinat Akhmetshin, had with President Trump’s family members and inner circle, the Times reported.



Dear Jim,

See what happens when you forget to turn on the parental controls on your computer? Hopefully the doggy police do not see this because you might be missing a few pooches if they do!
Your pal,

Posted at 10:46 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Shocking! Tucker Carlson Slams Trump (Must See)
MARCH 2, 2018

Fox News star Tucker Carlson shocked everyone Thursday when he went after President Donald Trump’s comments on guns.

The conservative news host opened the show by praising Trump’s tenure, saying his unorthodox style was “usually worth it.” But Carlson went full blast when discussing the president’s recent comments on gun laws.

Specifically, Carlson was unusually upset with Trump over his reported comments that the administration should consider taking “the guns first” and “go through due process second” when it came to mentally ill people who owned firearms. Carlson called it a “betrayal” of one of the president’s core promises.

“Now, I mean, how honest do you want to be? Imagine if Barack Obama had said that? Just ignore due process and confiscating guns? Obama would have been denounced as a dictator!” Carlson exclaimed.

“We would have denounced him first, trust me,” Carlson continued. “Congress would be talking impeachment. Some would be muttering secession.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Apparently the dopes at Snopes failed to realize this was humor? Talking above someone’s ability to understand…in this case Facebook and Snopes revealed their pay grade on the scale of intelligence!

Facebook Threatens Satire Site Babylon Bee over CNN Story That Snopes Rated ‘False’
March 1, 2018

Christian satire site The Babylon Bee received a terse warning from Facebook this week after the “independent fact-checkers” at Snopes reported that one of the site’s humor articles was “false.”

Adam Ford, who runs The Babylon Bee, was warned by Facebook that a recent satire article about CNN “contains information disputed by ( an independent fact checker.” Repeat offenders, Ford was told, “will see their distribution reduced and their ability to monetize and advertized [sic] removed.”


The story in question pokes fun at CNN with the headline: “CNN Purchases Industrial-Sized Washing Machine To Spin News Before Publication.” Anyone with even a sliver of a funny bone tucked away behind their appendix would know that it wasn’t a serious news piece, but, alas, the humorless dolts at Snopes had to spell out the obvious.


Posted at 9:39 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Socialism always works until they run out of other people’s money …then the money itself is destroyed.

Socialism – A Guaranteed Route To Hyperinflation
March 2, 2018

Gold is hated by governments around the world because it reveals their deceitful actions in totally destroying the economy. It is not an accident that gold is the only money which has survived for 6,000 years. Gold is the only money that tells the truth. And gold is nature’s money which means it cannot be destroyed and it cannot be manufactured.

This is why governments cannot live with gold as money for more than short periods. Because over time governments always spend more than the country earns. At that point their survival can only be assured by buying votes. And printing money is a very cheap way of buying votes. It costs nothing when you own the printing presses (or computers) and it is very effective short term. The problem is when that little boy shouts out: “The emperor has no clothes”. At that point everybody will realise that we all live in a world based on lies and debt.

In the next few years, country after country will find a naked emperor and empty coffers. The irresponsibility and incompetence of regimes know no borders. Take a country like Venezuela which hit the jackpot by sitting on free oil reserves of massive quantities. Venezuela has the biggest oil reserves in the world. But in spite of that, Venezuela has today reached economic misery.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

A picture of what happened the last time steel tariffs were raised…


Posted at 9:27 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

“We” are in the crosshairs…


Youtube and Facebook Are Purging Truthers, Using “Conspiracy Theories” as the Excuse
February 27, 2018



…”come and take it” now comes to mind!



You KNOW that this was NOT crafted AFTER the Florida shooting… the “Patriot” Act was crafted years before 9/11, this removal of the 2nd Amendment was crafted a long time ago just for a time such as this.

This bill makes almost ALL guns ILLEGAL.



Only the mentally unstable won’t see through this one JB. Problem is, the mentally unstable may actually be the majority at this point!



Google Appears to Remove All Shopping Search Results for Guns — Even Water Guns, ‘Guns and Roses,’ ‘Burgundy’
February 27, 2018

Update: As of late Tuesday afternoon, Google has restored many of the Google Shopping search results discussed in this article, such as water guns. Certain search terms like “AR-15” and “revolver” still display no results. The original article follows.

Google has removed search results for any product that contains the word “gun” in it, including water guns, toy guns, the band “Guns and Roses,” and even “burgundy” from its shopping section.

Google has removed results in its shopping tool for a wide range of terms related to firearms, unwittingly censoring completely unrelated items such as music groups and movies whose titles matched filtered terms.


Well said Kevin!


Bill, Jim,

QT is about to wag the dead dog of a fake economy. If you listen closely you can hear a sucking sound that isn’t a trade war but the dehydration of the life blood in the stock and bond markets.

Ending March 1, on the asset side looks like the Fed dumped $1.3B in notes and bonds but bought $.374M in inflation indexed TIPs while also dumping $2.0B in mortgages. Total QT about $3.1B. On the liability side they retired some $3.1B in reverse repo’s thereby putting the securities back into the hands of those institutions who appear to be selling them in competition with the Fed. This is still a smidgins compared to what is on the agenda for 2018 and 2019.

Knowing in 2018 that Fed has claimed that it would reduce its balance sheets by $20 billion per month ($5.0B/wk) from the start of January ’18, the recent reduction is still way short. And looking into the abyss of the remainder of the 2018 where Fed QT reaches $50B/month, that sucking sound isn’t a trade war but the life blood of the stock and bond markets.

For all of 2018, Fed QT will add up to $420b ($8B/wk). Add that to

another $420B in additional net Treasury debt issued and the number is staggering. But it gets better. Add that to the $530b of ECB QE here in 2017 but not coming in 2018 due to the taper, and markets face about $1.4T of CB tightening and new government debt issued in 2018.

2019 faces another $1.4T of tightening from the Fed and ECB relative to 2017 not including new net issuance of Fed debt. And now BOJ is talking about ending its QE in April 2019.

Soon the markets will realize that what they thought was real was only a mirage. What they thought was water was only the CB’s pissing down their back.

CIGA Kevin

Posted at 11:45 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Again, this stinks to high heaven. As we suggested earlier, either the deputies believed it was a drill or they were told to stand down. WAY too many inconsistencies on this one…In any case, the shooting is being used to attack the 2nd Amendment!

Commanding Officer Initially Ordered Responding Deputies To ‘Stage’ Not Enter Stoneman Douglas, Sources Say
March 1, 2018

Fox News has learned that in the critical moments as first responding deputies were searching for an active shooter on the property of Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school, a commanding officer on scene apparently ordered some of the initial responders to “stage” and set up a “perimeter” outside — instead of immediately ordering or allowing officers to rush in to neutralize the suspect, Nikolas Cruz.

“It’s atrocious,” a law enforcement source who was on the scene after the shooting told Fox News. “If deputies were staging it could have cost lives.”

The law enforcement source said responding deputies and officers were called to an active shooter scene in which they are trained to immediately “go, go, go” toward the direction of the shooter. “Every second is another life,” the source said.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

We call this “by accident…on purpose!”

YouTube’s New Moderators Mistakenly Pull Right-Wing Channels
February 28, 2018

YouTube’s new moderators, brought in to spot fake, misleading and extreme videos, stumbled in one of their first major tests, mistakenly removing some clips and channels in the midst of a nationwide debate on gun control.

The Google division said in December it would assign more than 10,000 people to moderate content after a year of scandals over fake and inappropriate content on the world’s largest video site.

In the wake of the Feb. 14 school shooting in Parkland, Florida, some YouTube moderators mistakenly removed several videos and some channels from right-wing, pro-gun video producers and outlets.


Yes correct Jim, what’s next?  Triggers?  Firing pins?  Ammo itself?  I would have expected this from Hillary et al?  This is exactly what David has told us all along, the man is apparently OWNED by the deep state…!

Damn it!
His flip flop on the 2nd amendment bothers me a lot. 
You believe in the wisdom of the constitution or you do not.
You cannot pick and chose what suits you politically at any moment.
You keep chipping away, and soon there is nothing left but snow flakes and Bernie Sanders
The is one for the deep state as a win.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

…a turd by any other name still smells bad and is still a turd!

SDSU Changes Course Title Amid Backlash
February 28, 2018

SAN DIEGO (CNS) – San Diego State University officials said Wednesday they “acknowledge” those who were offended by a new course titled “Trump: Impeachment, Removal or Conviction?” and will change the name of the class to accurately reflect its content, which they said is not focused on getting the current president out of office.

The weekend-long, one-credit class caught the attention of national conservative media outlets based on its title and description. The class will focus on the “two constitutional grounds: impeachment and removal (25th Amendment), and the possible charges of the independent counsel, the powers of the president, a history of the creation of that office and the comparison of divine right and rule of law leadership, presidential impeachments, including (President Richard) Nixon’s de facto impeachment” and more, according to the course listing.

The class is being offered in March as part of the criminal justice program in the university’s College of Extended Studies.


Posted at 11:42 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Since travelling the last few days, my mailbox is jammed. I will not be able to reply to e-mails due to the sheer volume but your message has been read. We will have a new article for subscribers tomorrow afternoon and our Saturday discussion should be posted as normal. It was great to see everyone in Toronto!