Posted at 4:39 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

No commentary necessary…

Amazon And Costco Are Selling Emergency Kits That Can Feed A Family For A Year — And It Reveals A Disturbing New Normal In America
March 10, 2018

Americans preparing for anything from a hurricane to “an emergency of Biblical proportions” can find what they need to survive on Costco and Amazon.

The retailers are selling a variety of emergency survival kits, some of which can feed a family of four for up to a year.


Options at Costco include a $5,999.99 kit containing 600 cans of food designed to feed four people 12 months, based on a per-person diet of 2,000 calories a day. Costco’s cheapest kit, at $999.99, contains 96 cans and can feed one person for a year on a diet of 1,200 calories a day.

The kits contain freeze-dried broccoli, green beans, corn, dehydrated apples, and other grains and proteins that have a shelf life of up to 30 years.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Interesting article!

Gavekal Research CEO: China Is Leading A Once-In-A-Generation Shift To Inflation
March 8, 2018

At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Louis Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talked about “game-changing policy shifts” and massive social changes that are underway in China.

One of the most notable changes is Xi Jinping’s effort to pull the Chinese economy away from pollution-heavy industries. Cement, steel, and textile industries are under pressure—they are forced to cut back production and reduce supply.

The president of the People’s Republic of China initiated the new policies a couple of years ago, said Gave. Now the reform is intensifying.

The China-style “supply-side reform” is exposing an inherent contradiction in our thinking. We believe central banks can always inject liquidity and companies can always get more efficient.


Posted at 9:06 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

You were the very first to suggest the most endangered species on the planet walked on two legs and had a pension! How can this possibly be…with stocks at all time highs and valuations stretched to the no longer planet Pluto? Interest rates are still stupid low by any historical standard which means bonds are still stupidly high in price…yet Calpers is broke? Can you imagine the negative net worth they would have if not for the PPT, false interest rates and a central bank that spews $trillions to paper over losses from the last cycle? You should take a well deserved bow for calling this so far ahead that no one even understood what you were talking about. I am so proud to be your business partner and individual student! Article courtesy of JB.



“CalPERS Is Near Insolvency; It Needs A Bailout Soon” – Former Board Member Makes Stunning Admission
February 25, 2018

Two weeks ago, in the aftermath of the February 5 volocaust, we quoted David Hunt, CEO of $1.2 trillion asset manager PGIM, who said ignore the volatility spike, the real financial timebomb was and remains public pensions: “if you were going to look for what’s the possible real crack in the financial architecture for the next crisis, rather than looking in the rearview mirror, pension funds would be on our list.”

In a brief discussion wondering what municipalities and states will do when local tax revenues decline and unemployment worsens, Hunt said “we’re worried about those pension obligations.”

He is hardly alone: having reported over and over and over (and over, and over) again that public pensions are in deep trouble, two days ago none other than Steve Westly, former California controller and Calpers board member – manager of the largest public pension fund in the US, made a stunning admission, confirming everything:

“The pension crisis is inching closer by the day. CalPERS just voted to increase the amount cities must pay to the agency. Cities point to possible insolvency if payments keep rising but CalPERS is near insolvency itself. It may be reform or bailout soon.”


Posted at 10:18 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

We must wonder what a “strong dollar” would do to this chart?


Via ZeroHedge

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is your key to unlocking velocity of money.

Via 1600 Daily – March 6, 2018

‘This Will Be Remembered’
President Donald J. Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a bilateral visit at the White House yesterday. The two leaders discussed the imminent move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to its capital city of Jerusalem, as well as the path to peace for the Middle East.

“I want to tell you that the Jewish people have a long memory,” Prime Minister Netanyahu said. “We remember 70 years ago, President Harry S. Truman was the first leader to recognize the Jewish state. And we remember how a few weeks ago, President Donald J. Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital,” he continued.

“Mr. President, this will be remembered by our people throughout the ages. And as you just said, others talked about it. You did it.”

The greatest challenge to the Middle East is encapsulated in one word, says Prime Minister Netanyahu.

‘Needed attention’ on infrastructure
Two top officials in Oklahoma—the state’s Governor, Mary Fallin, along with Secretary of Transportation Mike Patterson—write that “infrastructure improvement is a priority issue because of its direct impact on economic growth and stability as well as the safety and well-being of our citizens.”

The two state leaders make a convincing case:

In 2011, 706 of Oklahoma’s 6,800 highway bridges were structurally deficient. That number is coming down to 187 under Gov. Fallin, and the President’s “plan will allow Oklahoma to continue to prioritize infrastructure projects.”

President Trump’s proposal includes traditional transportation such as roads and transit, but it also supports broadband internet, water and power systems, and other indispensable pieces for a modern infrastructure system.

The Administration’s plan will benefit states such as Oklahoma by directing 25 percent of Federal funding—about $50 billion—for rural projects.

The bottom line? “We support the Trump administration’s infrastructure proposal for starting the dialogue about the need for these improvements,” the pair write.

Learn more about why Oklahoma’s leaders are with President Trump on infrastructure.
America to overtake Russia on oil
The United States will eclipse Russia to become the largest oil producer in the world by 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.

This latest headline is yet more evidence that President Trump’s plan to achieve American energy dominance is paying off just 13 months into his term. “Together, we are going to start a new energy revolution—one that celebrates American production on American soil,” the President said last year.

According to the Journal, “U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 million barrels a day from this year.” What will that mean for America? “Once heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, the U.S. is getting closer to achieving its goal of producing enough crude to meet domestic demand for refined products like gasoline,” the Journal says.

Learn more: The U.S. will be the world’s largest oil producer by 2023, says IEA

Photo of the Day


Vice President Mike Pence at AIPAC 2018 | March 5, 2018 (Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen)


This afternoon, President Trump will participate in an expanded bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden. Later, the President will meet with Swedish business representatives before holding a joint press conference with Prime Minister Löfven. Watch live at 3:30pm ET.

This morning, the Vice President participated in a phone call with President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine. The Vice President then travels to Omaha, Nebraska, to deliver keynote remarks at an America First Policies “Tax Cuts to Put America First” event.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

If you have one if these in your home, maybe you should question both your thought process and sanity?

‘There’s A Good Chance I Get Murdered Tonight’: Terrified Amazon Echo Users Reveal Alexa Has Been Emitting ‘Bone Chilling’ Laughs At Random And Is Ignoring Their Commands
March 6, 2018

There are plenty of stories of artificial intelligence gone wrong.

But recent reports from owners of Amazon Alexa devices are being called ‘bone chillingly creepy.’

Some users say their Alexa-enabled gadgets start laughing totally unprompted.

Some owners of Alexa-enabled devices like the Echo (pictured, file photo) say their gadgets are randomly laughing. Alexa is programmed to laugh at jokes, but doesn’t typically giggle at random times

One user reportedly tried to turn the lights off in their home but Alexa repeatedly turned the lights back on, eventually uttering an ‘evil laugh,’ according to BuzzFeed.

Another Echo Dot owner said they told Alexa to turn off their alarm in the morning and she responded by letting out a ‘witch-like’ laugh.

Alexa is programmed in many voice-activated devices with a preset laugh, which can be prompted by asking: ‘Alexa, how do you laugh?’


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Doesn’t there need to be wage growth to service the gargantuan and growing debt? This is part of the math we speak of when we say “mathematically the system is untenable”…

2017 Wage Growth At Lowest In 9 Years
March 7, 2018

US nonfarm labor costs rose just 0.35% YoY in 2017 – the weakest growth in American worker compensation since 2010…

While the headline revisions to Q4 unit labor costs and productivity were better than expected…

Unit labor costs +2.5% (vs 2.0% exp)…


Q4 productivity was revised up to unchanged from -0.1%…



Bill Holter’s Commentary

The title is correct.

Mr. President, If We Don’t Have Gold, We Don’t Have a Country
March 7, 2018

“Passivity is fatal to us. Our goal is to make the enemy passive. … Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy.” Mao Tse-tung, proclaiming the founding of the People’s Republic of China, 1949

Circumstantial evidence is mounting high that there is something seriously wrong with the amount of gold reportedly owned by the United States government, or more precisely, the American people.

After nearly two generations of being brainwashed into believing that gold is a meaningless relic, western citizens have lost all concept of gold’s crucial monetary importance. If it turns out that the United States does not, in fact, possess and own the gold it claims to, the monetary, fiscal, economic, and humanitarian fallout will be unprecedented in its destructiveness. Unfortunately, the people have no idea what is at stake.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today in CT.



Posted at 4:37 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

I am not sure this is correct, what do you think?



Why QE Didn’t Send Gold Up To $20,000
March 6, 2018

Guest post by JP Koning, submitted by

Why didn’t quantitative easing, which created trillions of dollars of new money, lead to a massive spike in the gold price?


100 Trillion Dollar Notes are not yet required to purchase gold. Why hasn’t the increased money supply significantly increased the gold price?

The Quantity Theory of Money

The intuition that an increase in the money supply should lead to a rise in prices, including the price of gold, comes from a very old theory of money—the quantity theory of money—going back to at least the philosopher David Hume. Hume asked his readers to imagine a situation in which everyone in Great Britain suddenly had “five pounds slipt into his pocket in one night.” Hume reasoned that this sudden increase in the money supply would “only serve to increase the prices of every thing, without any farther consequence.”


Dear Bill,

To put it quite simply, that was at the time of major increase in money supply all directed to fill a huge dark hole created by OTC derivative failures. The increase in money supply never got to see the light of day as it went into the losers on the OTC derivatives to pay the winners on the OTC derivatives who hoarded the funds as the tattered banking industry does.On the next move, the rich got richer. The derivative losers remain optically solvent due to a FASB change in accounting rules for derivative valuation. Today, personal interest overcomes the interest in the growth of institutions. Therefore, the bonuses went through the roof at financial institutions as did the salaries. This is pure financial interest, and does not in any way see the blue collar consumers. This money funds special interest, special people and gave birth to the 1% seeing their net worth move towards the trillions market. It funded a worldwide stock and bond market bubble but did nothing much inflationary where good are concerned. The increase in the money supply did not go into the pocket of consumers but rather just filled black holes in the OTC derivative losers balance sheets. This was named “Sterilization”, to make it look acceptable as an economic event. The money went to the losers on OTC derivative for fake working capital. Therefore, this produced an end to the optics of the OTC derivative crisis, but not appreciation in anything but financial bubbles.

Now it is different. The economic recovery, although not strong, is moving sideways. The playing field has become optically somewhat even. Changes in accounting has produced the optical of a level banking field. Insolvent banks continue to move forward on the back of FASB’s capitulation to the dark state who order a change in the mark to market computation of derivatives. FASB, therefore, stretching Hume’ s formula in time but in no way is it cancelled other than in snow flake economist minds.

A group of 15 or so trillionaires and a huge amount of millionaires were created everywhere in finance. This phenomena took place only in the world of finance and no where else, all on the back of the phony money transfer from the losers to winners on derivatives. This process is what gave rise to the false claim on two years of major international banks trading desks never one day losing money. That was the profit side of the derivative paying out in bonus, salary and bank stock prices plus buy backs in that industry via the trading department recognition of the OTC derivative winnings funded by the government, you and I Hume is not wrong. He was delayed by the treachery of FASB.

Now things have turned. The dollar is banished for its own many other reasons.

Now I predict the formula which was never cancelled but only delayed becomes more relevant.

Velocity of money depends heavily on confidence in the reserve currency, which few take into account.

Add that to Hume’s formula Trump’s immediate desire for fiscal stimulation, thereby locking and loading the formula to explode. Stimulation is now going fiscal and therefore, headed for Main Street. the Fed cannot shrink their balance sheet for quality of paper holdings and interest rate reasons Hyper inflation is always primarily a currency event, not an economic event.

Hume has not been outlawed by the Snow Flake B school fops, but will be the key to the reinstitution of the Austrian / Chicago school of economics based on the laws of nature.

MOPE will be trashed never to return in the lives of the Snow flakes. This is now, a clear and present as the fact of what is happening out there.

Jim Sinclair

Executive Chairman

Posted at 12:35 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Incredible timing!

Kobe Steel Admits Data Fraud Went On Nearly Five Decades, CEO To Quit
March 5, 2018

TOKYO (Reuters) – Kobe Steel Ltd admitted on Tuesday its data fraud has been going on nearly five decades and also revealed new cases of cheating, highlighting the challenges facing the 112-year-old company mired in compliance failures and malfeasance.

Japan’s third-biggest steelmaker said its CEO will step down to take responsibility for the widespread data fraud scandal that came to light last year, although doubts remain over its corporate culture and the possibility of future fines.

Kobe Steel, which supplies steel parts to manufacturers of cars, planes and trains around the world, admitted last year to supplying products with falsified specifications to about 500 customers, throwing global supply chains into turmoil.

The company, in announcing the results from a four-month-long investigation by an external committee, said it had also found new cases of impropriety, widening the total of affected clients to 605, including 222 customers overseas.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Someone had to do it!

Street Artist Erects Three Billboards Over Hollywood: “Oscar for Biggest Pedophile Goes To …”
February 28, 2018

The conservative provocateur who calls himself Sabo took aim at Hollywood days before the Academy Awards.

With a nod to the Oscar-nominated Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, conservative street artist Sabo has hijacked three billboards in Hollywood to attack the entertainment industry for allegedly shielding pedophiles.

Reminiscent of the signage in the Martin McDonagh film, which is up for seven Oscars including best picture, with black text on a field of red, three consecutive billboards in Hollywood sprang up Wednesday, each calling out the industry.

“And the Oscar for biggest pedophile goes to …” reads one sign.

Another says, “We all knew and still no arrests.”

A third billboard reads: “Name names on stage or shut the hell up!”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

If this is shocking to you, you have not been paying attention!

Australian Diplomat Whose Tip Launched Russia Probe Has $25 Million Tie To Clintons
March 6, 2018

The Australian diplomat whose 2016 tip resulted in the FBI’s Trump-Russia counterintelligence investigation had previously arranged one of the largest donations to Clinton charities, documents reveal.


Alexander Downer, formerly Australia’s Foreign Minister, secured $25 million in aid from Australia for the Clinton Foundation’s fight against AIDS – according to decade-old government memos archived on the Australian foreign ministry website, report John Solomon and Alison Spann of The Hill.

A 2006 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by both Downer and President Clinton outlines a four year project to provide screening and drug treatment to AIDS patients in Asia.

The funds were originally slated for the Clinton Foundation, but were later routed to the Clinton Health Access Initative (CHAI).


Bill Holter’s Commentary

And we are supposed to follow their lead politically because they are so smart? Sorry folks, Facebook just pulled their own pants down for all to see…and what you see is their true colors! Think of this the next time any Social Justice Warrior tries to sway your common sense!

Facebook Asks Users: Should We Allow Men To Ask Children For Sexual Images?
March 5, 2018

Facebook has admitted it was a “mistake” to ask users whether paedophiles requesting sexual pictures from children should be allowed on its website.

On Sunday, the social network ran a survey for some users asking how they thought the company should handle grooming behaviour. “There are a wide range of topics and behaviours that appear on Facebook,” one question began. “In thinking about an ideal world where you could set Facebook’s policies, how would you handle the following: a private message in which an adult man asks a 14-year-old girl for sexual pictures.”

The options available to respondents ranged from “this content should not be allowed on Facebook, and no one should be able to see it” to “this content should be allowed on Facebook, and I would not mind seeing it”.

A second question asked who should decide the rules around whether or not the adult man should be allowed to ask for such pictures on Facebook. Options available included “Facebook users decide the rules by voting and tell Facebook” and “Facebook decides the rules on its own”.


Posted at 7:07 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Plain and simple a war on Christianity”

Court Ruling Could Banish Memorial Crosses from Arlington Cemetery
March 4, 2018

There is a very real possibility that war memorial crosses at Arlington National Cemetery could be in jeopardy, a federal judge warned in a chilling dissent to a court case involving the fate of a 90-year-old monument honoring soldiers in Bladensburg, Maryland.

The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday refused to revisit an October decision that declared the 90-year-old “Peace Cross” was unconstitutional because it rests on public property.

Tired of Facebook censoring Conservative Commentary? Click here to sign up for Todd’s free weekly email to guarantee you get access to Todd’s columns!

The monument is a memorial to the 49 men from Prince George’s County, Maryland who died fighting for liberty in World War I.

The memorial, paid for by the American Legion and local citizens, consists of a large Celtic cross on a pedestal inscribed with the words “Valor,” “Endurance,” “Courage,” and “Devotion.”


Posted at 3:52 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

How often have you heard the phrase “the government will never let it happen”? It almost doesn’t matter what the topic is you are talking about, nothing “bad” can ever really happen…or so it is thought. The reason of course is because we are so many years into “MOPE” (management of perspective economics). No matter what has happened in the past, the media, Wall Street, and the government have constantly spun the narrative to lead the “perspective”. MOPE has been with us for such a long time, it is not surprising the public is conditioned into believing nothing bad will EVER happen.

We could go through the exercise of “how” and even “why” MOPE came about but that might end up being a novel. Rather, I believe there is a core how and why. Put simply, MOPE became a necessity to protect the ability for the U.S. to borrow…AND to issue the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This topic by the way is a chicken or the egg question but really no longer matters as we are in the very late innings of the credit game.

You see, the U.S. has run a budget deficit every year since 1960 which means they had to borrow funds to keep the doors open and the machine running. Foreigners provided for many years to cover the shortfall and also willingly (for the most part) accepted and used dollars for trade. Rather than live within means, the U.S. fell into the trap of borrowing more to pay back past debt with more new debt and not allow living standards to “clear”. Mother nature saw this and began to drain the Treasury of gold in the late 1960’s which led to the U.S. defaulting on Aug.15, 1971…which kicked off the need for MOPE.


Posted at 2:22 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Good’ern JB!



Harvey Organ with a gem for us! I wonder if this is happening as London now owes 1,000’s of tons of gold for delivery?