Posted at 9:01 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Erik has been saying this since 2000 because he was correct then and even more correct today as absolutely nothing has been done to fix the debt problem. 2008 was bad enough as they threw more debt at a debt problem as the fix. Will throwing 10’s of $ trillions of newly created debt money…fix debt? Nevermind the shaky creditworthiness of borrowers, the collateral has now evaporated and nothing can be done to reflate it. Sir Richard the Good named it “inflate or die”.

Erik, You Been Saying This Stuff Since 2000. (On Economics)_001

Erik, You Been Saying This Stuff Since 2000. (On Economics)_002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

And just like that we have “QE infinity”. Central banks will now monetize and buy everything. Their currencies will now make the final journey to zero … When all is said and done, currencies will drop faster than assets “go up”. It is called hyperinflation. If they can keep markets open, what will look like a spectacular rise on a chart in reality will be vast losses of purchasing power.

The Federal Reserve Just Pledged Asset Purchases With No Limit To Support Markets
March 23, 2020

The Federal Reserve said Monday it will launch a barrage of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently amid the coronavirus crisis.

Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

That represents a potentially new chapter in the Fed’s “money printing” as it commits to keep expanding its balance sheet as necessary, rather than a commitment to a set amount.

The Fed also will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds. The move comes in a space that has seen considerable turmoil since the crisis has intensified and market liquidity has been sapped.

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Posted at 9:40 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) operates the largest private gold vault in the world in Switzerland. More than a year and a half ago, EvG warned here on USAWatchdog.com that “risk is exponential and unmeasurable” because of the estimated two quadrillion of derivatives and debt in the global financial system. He also warned that “at some point, all hell will break loose.” Looks like hell has indeed broken loose because of the China virus, and now EvG contends, “The system is bankrupt. . . . The system is broken and bankrupt. This did not start now with the Coronavirus. It didn’t start in August and September (of 2019) when central banks said we would do everything we can with the Fed QE, repos and the ECB (European Central Bank) QE. . . . This started a long time ago. The system was broken at the beginning of this century. The 2007-2009 crisis was the first signal that the financial system was not functioning. They threw $25 trillion at it in financing and guarantees, etc., but I always said 2007-2009 was a rehearsal. We are now approaching, sadly, the real thing. This is the end of a two to three hundred year cycle. So, we are going to see some extremely difficult times. The Corona virus is a horrible catalyst, but that is all it is. It’s not the reason for the problem. The reason for the problem is a broken financial system . . . and now we are starting the final stage of the end of this financial system.”

EvG also says the reaction to the China virus is the same worldwide. EvG says, “You are seeing food shops with empty shelves. People are panicking. So, that is the first reaction to the Coronavirus, but they have not realized the big problem is in the financial markets. It is in a system that has no liquidity or money, and it has to print more and more. At some point, people will realize there is no money, and you will have the same reaction. People will be lining up outside of banks or they will go to their ATM machines to get money and, of course, they will have to reduce it. Now, in most countries, there is no cash. So, it is easy for them to shut off the system.  There will absolutely be shortages of cash for people, otherwise, you will have bank runs.”

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Posted at 11:54 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Erik’s latest.

Are-There-Pandemic-Despots-Waiting-in-the-Wings-2_001

Are-There-Pandemic-Despots-Waiting-in-the-Wings-2_002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Erik correctly discusses reset 1 and 2.

A-Fictional-Reserve—Re-Hypothecated-Larceny_001

A-Fictional-Reserve—Re-Hypothecated-Larceny_002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Someone might have lost a little money? Wait until people decide what “money” really is?

The Median US Stock Is Now Down 50% From Its Highs As World Loses $25 Trillion In A Month
March 19, 2020

Global stock and bond markets have seen $25 trillion of ‘paper’ wealth erased in the last month, wiping out all the gains from the Dec 2018 crash lows….

Global bonds are actually still up around $5 trillion while global stocks have lost around $5 trillion since the Dec 2018 lows, and a lot of those losses come from the US markets where the median stock is now down 50% from its highs… (because the Value Line index below is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change)

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Posted at 9:31 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Good Day,

      It seems too much is going on; the news is overwhelming. We‘ve witnessed over the past week our Federal Reserve cut rates to zero with reactions from Canada, and the UK, but not Europe. We all know that Repos are accelerating, more than doubling the doublings since September and the creation of new money is like watching Mount St. Helen’s and Krakatoa going off at the same time with falling debris not affecting the population, yet. The fast-rising value in the US Dollar, is acting like a blow off top, as I witnessed the Dollar gain another 200+ basis points during the day. I am also quite certain that our long-term focus, over all these years, regarding the devaluation of the Dollar and the rise of precious metals, is much closer to happening.

What I haven’t heard or seen, is how many central banks have adjusted their rates? Since I watch currencies, I figured my sources would have an article, in kind words, telling me what’s happening up there in the canopy of international currency, but alas. Maybe I need another set of sources, considering! Sometimes, asking a search engine a question that gets an accurate response is trying, very trying, but sometimes we can get good answers! Like this one I found. It’s not a story, but a list that shows 14 central banks have already reduced rates so far this month. (click the “date of change”).

      While main stream media continues to fail to deliver, with the banks running rates to the ground, and in a fear type way, it’s comforting to come here every day and to listen to the boys; Jim, Bill, Dave, and Denny, talk about things the media can’t/won’t, as the world’s financial system seems to be melting down before our very eyes. The Boys Challenge the Narrative with big breaths and common sense … stay close and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More JJ posts can be found with purchase of a JSMineset subscription

Posted at 10:11 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

A valid question: is it not finally time for least at some sort of bounce? A valid question: is it not finally time for least at some sort of bounce?

image

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Depression? Ya think? Here is some rocket science for you! “Markets” are actually slightly behind this thought process but don’t worry, they’ll catch up…

JPMorgan Now Expects A Global Depression In The Second Quarter
March 18, 2020

Earlier we reported that in a report titled “the lamps are going out all across the economy”, JPMorgan’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli slashed his Q2 US GDP forecast to a staggering -14%, which he optimistically expects to form the bottom of a V-shaped recovery that then lifts the US economy by +8% and +4% in Q3 and Q4, respectively (at least until the next downward revision in his forecast).

We doubt the V-shaped recovery will take place, in fact if there is any “recovery” it will be L-shaped especially if medical experts are correct that the pandemic will take 12-18 months to full clear out. That said, the Q2 prediction alone is catastrophic, and if that slowdown persists the US is facing not only a recession, but probably a second Great Depression.

However, if JPM’s forecast revision for the US was catastrophic, than its latest global outlook is downright apocalyptic.

In a separate note by JPM’s Bruce Kasman, has also taken a flamethrower to his global economic forecasts, and the bank’s head of economic policy now anticipates Europe to implode an unprecedented 22%, the UK to crater by a depressionary and with the US plunging 14%, he sees the global economy ex China contracting by a whopping -13.7%. In short, JPM now expects no less than a global depression in the second quarter. This will follow a Q1 quarter in which China is expected to collapse by -40.8%, which however will somehow surge by 57.4% in the second quarter.

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Posted at 10:10 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Very brief commentary today.What happens when the most overlevered global economy in history shuts down for a month, or more?Global bankruptcy.It is over folks, the system is coming apart at the seams and the “promises” the world ran so smoothly on for so long are being laid bare.You might ask, which promises?The answer is ALL promises.

All of a sudden and immediately after the Fed and Treasury announced over $4 trillion in various stimulus and aid …interest rates on Treasuries are rising.For example, rates on the 10yr Tsy collapsed to .34% a week ago Monday.Now, after 150 basis points in cuts, the 10yr is trading over 1.1% just 7 trading days later!

In the metals arena, you see paper pricing extremely weak.However, the real world shows something very different.The US Mint is out of both gold and silver eagles.Other sovereign mints are also running out of supply or already out.So you think silver is $12.50?Maybe you can purchase 100 ounce bars for $16+ but do they really have utility?The form that does have utility (because of the small denominations) is junk silver.The only dealer I see still selling junk is APMEX, they are currently $10.99 over spot which equates to over $20 per ounce!The physical market is now taking COMEX by the throat and ignoring their fraudulent prices.

We told you (and were laughed at) that the day would come when you had what you had and that was all you had.This is now fairly apparent as “real” things like real metal and even food are showing serious supply issues.This is not a drill folks, Humpty Dumpty has fallen and the supply of super glue is gone.The dollar has gone through par and may even go to the 110-115 level or higher before it burns out.This is a function of Richard Russell’s “synthetic short”.The majority of global debt and trade is priced in dollars.The current deflation is exposing a dollar shortage as debtors scramble for dollars to settle.When all is said and done, ALL fiat currencies will collapse to their intrinsic values (zero or very close).Leaving real monies gold and silver as the last men standing.

Lastly, as physical gold and silver are becoming unattainable, there is only one last area left for exposure to real metal …the miners.The miners with real and verified reserves in the ground in our opinion are set to make stock market history.The “leverage” which has largely been forgotten about is still there.It looks like they turned or reversed on Monday and are acting much better.It is only a matter of time before investors understand it is their only avenue of exposure to precious metals to protect their financial lives.

Hold on to anything and everything precious as the world awash in liabilities melts down around them.Stay safe and God bless us all!

Standing a terrified watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Posted at 9:35 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

I asked Tony earlier today if he was going to stand by his mailbox waiting for a check?

Bill

Oh, the answer to your question as to what the $1000 Easter egg will buy is (drum roll please)……….nothing!
There’s no place open to spend it and the few that are open are out of goods!!!
What a shit show!

CIGA Tony

Jim/Bill,

Never trust what government stats tell you.

However, pay close attention to the long end of the bond market.

It speaks volumes.

Jeff Gundlach predicted during his DoubleLine call yesterday that the U.S. national debt likely to grow to $30 trillion in two or three years as spending explodes in response to the crisis, which means about $3-4 trillion in net issuance per year, and that upcoming supply tsunami is certainly sending bond prices lower, potentially dealing a deathly blow to the risk-parity/balanced “60/40” portfolio model.

Perhaps, over the last 2 days, it (bond market) is sensing impending inflation of a magnitude greater than we can imagine.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

We told you about this on our recent subscriber call. It is game over once rates rise against the Fed’s wishes.

Bill

There Is Something About This Crazy Treasury Move That Nobody Can Explain
March 18, 2020

On one hand, the recent surge in 10Y yields is precisely what one – and certainly we – would expect: after all, the official arrival of helicopter money in the form of $1,000 checks to most Americans means that people’s expectations for government generosity repriced overnight, and now the political debate shifts to how much more free cash Americans should expect and for how long (with Bernie Sanders firing the first shot with a proposal to hand out $2,000 instead of $1,000). On this point, Jeff Gundlach predicted during his DoubleLine call yesterday that “the U.S. national debt likely to grow to $30 trillion in two or three years as spending explodes in response to the crisis”, which means about $3-4 trillion in net issuance per year, and that upcoming supply tsunami is certainly sending bond prices lower, potentially dealing a deathly blow to the risk-parity/balanced “60/40” portfolio model.

Yet on the other hand, Treasury inflation breakevens have plunged to record lows as if the market is saying that despite this flood of new money, there will be no actual inflation as much as a decade in the future. To put it mildly, this is bizarre, and as BMO’s Ian Lyngen writes this morning, “there are aspects of the overnight price action which resonate and others that confound. Mnuchin’s dire warning that the unemployment rate could spike to 20% in the absence of government intervention to address the coronacrisis had the foreseeable impact on the equity market; limit down. The shape of the yield curve has also performed in line with prior easing episodes with 2s/10s reaching 72.6 bp overnight and offering solace to those anticipating a cyclical resteepening.”

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Jim/Bill,

What good is a Payroll Tax Holiday, raising your take home pay, if you are no longer employed?

Businesses shutting down everywhere.

Political stunt?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Good point Wolfgang.

Bill

President Trump’s Payroll Tax Holiday: Budgetary, Distributional, and Economic Effects
March 12, 2020

· In response to the economic effects of the coronavirus, President Trump has proposed a payroll tax holiday that would temporarily eliminate all Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes through December 31st, 2020. PWBM projects that this payroll tax holiday would cost $807 billion if the holiday were run from April 1 through December 31, 2020.

· Households in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution—those households with the highest willingness to spend their tax savings—would receive about 2 percent of the total tax cut and only a third of these households would see any tax savings due to low levels of taxable income. Tax savings would also accumulate slowly over time relative to direct government spending.

· PWBM estimates that eliminating payroll taxes would have little net impact on the economy in the short run and would reduce the size of the economy by 0.1 percent in 2030 and 0.2 percent in 2050 due to additional debt.

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Jim/Bill,

Slowly but surely the hints of coming Hyperinflation are coming to press!

The world, in particular the general public, should know.  Shout it from the rooftops.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Believe me Wolfgang we have tried, but people always laughed at us.  THIS is no laughing matter…

Bill

Bernanke and Yellen Tell the Fed to Monetize Everything.
March 18, 2020

Thus far in this crisis, the Fed has:

1)    Cut interest rates from 1.25% to 0.15%.

2)    Launched over $700 billion in Quantitative Easing (QE).

3)    Launched a $1.5 TRILLION repo program.

4)    Launched another $1 trillion repo program.

5)    Announced it will begin buying commercial paper (short-term corporate debt).

6)    Allowed primary dealers to start parking assets, including stocks, as collateral in exchange for short-term credit.

7)    Opened Euro-Dollar swaps (this implies systemically important banks in Europe are in danger of collapse).

Under any set of circumstances, the above set of policies would be considered the NUCLEAR option. The fact that the Fed has launched ALL of these in the span of three weeks is beyond incredible.

In the simplest of terms, the Fed has effectively used up ALL of its ammo in less than a single month. At this point, there truly is not much else the Fed can do.

And the markets continue to implode. As I write this, the futures markets are once again LIMIT down, meaning they had to be frozen after falling 5%.

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Posted at 9:27 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Do you understand?

Fed Launches Primary Dealer Credit Facility Which Will Accept Stocks As Collateral
March 17, 2020

Earlier today, when discussing the launch of the “Lehman crisis playbook” in response to the Global Covid Crisis, we listed the alphabet soup of measures the Fed may launch which are a replica of the measures adopted in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse. These included the AMFL, the MMIFF, the TAF and last but not least, the PDCF, or Primary Dealer Credit Facility, which as Rabobank said “would provide overnight funding to primary dealers, similar to the way the discount window provides a backup source of funding for depository institutions.”

Just three hours later, at 6pm ET, the Fed, as expected, announced the establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) “to support the credit needs of households and businesses.” What the Fed really meant is that it is now launching a way for dealers to monetize the stocks they own, as the facility will be collateralized, among others, by “equity securities.”

As the Fed announced, the PDCF “will offer overnight and term funding with maturities up to 90 days and will be available on March 20, 2020” and will be in place for at least six months and may be extended as conditions warrant.

But here is the punchline:

Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment grade debt securities, including commercial paper and municipal bonds, and a broad range of equity securities.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

COMEX prices are irrelevant.

MASSIVE SURGE IN PHYSICAL SILVER BUYING: Totally Distorted & Broken Markets
March 14, 2020

The world economic and financial markets have entered into a crippling cannibalization of the system in which few are prepared.  While the politicians, financial analysts, and media are providing optimistic forecasts for the future, they continue to underestimate the seriousness of the global contagion.  Thus, after a week or two, these forecasts will be revised lower (once again) to reflect a more gloomy, negative and more realistic outlook.

So, in another a few weeks, the world as it pertains to this contagion will look a lot worse than it does today.  I’d imagine the Dow Jones Index will likely shed another 5-8,000+ points during this period. Also, the global supply chain disruptions will kick into high gear as month-long lockdowns in various countries finally impact manufacturers and retailers across the world.

I haven’t put out too many new updates and articles over the past few weeks.  Rather, I decided to take a step back to research and watch as this global contagion continued to unfold.  However, I will be putting out more updates, videos, and articles over the next month as I believe most people are still unprepared for what’s coming.

Although, I have been a bit busy on Twitter recently.  You can follow my TWEETS and REPLIES on Twitter here: SRSRocco Report Twitter Feed.  When I posted this Tweet on March 15th, the price of oil was $31.  I stated that the price would likely fall to $29 the next day… and it did. The relevant sentence in the tweet below is… WE DON’T COME BACK FROM THIS ONE.

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