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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Jim Grant with stark truth!

The World-Wide Suppression of Interest Rates Has Been Something Very Near to a Crime
April 3, 2019

Once again, the expedition to go back to normal has been postponed. After the big market scare at the end of 2018, central banks have abolished their plans to tighten interest rates further. Wall Street loves it. The first quarter has been the best one for risk assets in a decade, and after Lyft’s successful going public, a record year for IPOs seems to be in sight. Jim Grant observes the madding crowd from a sober distance. «Interest rates are the traffic signals of a market economy. Turn them all green, and errors and pileups abound», says the sharp thinking editor of the iconic Wall Street newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. He states that a decade after the financial crisis, many companies are so heavily addicted to easy monetary policies that they wouldn’t be able to survive on their own. Consequentially, the proficient value seeker has a hard time to find attractive investments in today’s markets. Where he spots rare opportunities, he tells «The Market» in this extended interview.

Mr. Grant, once again, the Federal Reserve is giving investors the green light. US equities are off to their best start since 1998. What’s your take on the current state of the global financial markets?

Stocks are up, bond yields are down and economists are speaking of full employment: Everything seems perfect and improving. But I remain a non-believer in these modern monetary methods. If it were this easy, mankind would have solved the economic problems a long time ago.

For quite some time, you have been warning that extreme measures like negative interest rates and quantitative easing will get us into trouble. But so far, the central banks remain confident that their policies are working.

What we see is an attempt to make things smooth and to forestall crises through keeping interest rates very low. But central banks are arsonists and firemen. They are arsonists because they strike the matches which set off the fire. It’s like an underground fire in a coal mine: You can see the smoke seeping up out of the ground and the ground is warm under foot, but you can’t see the flames. Then, time passes and the fire spreads and becomes more fierce and hotter. Finally, it bursts out of the ground. That’s in some way what happens in the credit markets.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Don’t miss this chart in John Hussman’s article.
















“You Are Here…”
April 13, 2019

Excerpted from John Hussman’s Weekly Market Comment,

There are three principal phases of a bull market: the first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock prices to the known improvement in corporate earnings, and the third is the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.

There are three principal phases of a bear market: the first represents the abandonment of the hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices; the second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the third is caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets.

– Robert Rhea, The Dow Theory, 1932

Charles Dow once wrote, “To know values is to know the meaning of the market.” That quote may surprise trend-followers and adherents of technical analysis, because Dow’s work is often squeezed into a caricature focusing on nothing more than confirmation and divergence across the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages. But Dow’s actual views, best elaborated by writers like Robert Rhea and William Peter Hamilton, were actually about something much more fundamental: identifying the position of the market in its complete bull-bear cycle. That’s a concept that investors have forgotten, encouraged by the illusion that the Federal Reserve’s buying of Treasury bonds is capable of saving the world from any form of discomfort. That illusion is likely to prove costly.

Probably the most useful exercise we can do at present is to examine where the markets and the U.S. economy are in their respective cycles – with 19 charts and detailed analysis.

The recent bull market clocked in as the longest in history. Even if the September 20, 2018 peak in the S&P 500 was the final high, the preceding advance outlived the 1990-2000 bull market by nearly 8 weeks. Likewise, the current economic expansion is just 3 months shy of the record 10-year expansion that ended in early 2001, the unemployment rate is down to just 3.8%, the entire post-crisis gap between actual real GDP and the CBO estimate of potential real GDP has been eliminated, and the expansion has already outlived the previous runner-up, which ran from 1961 to the end of 1969.


Posted at 2:58 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Stating the obvious…but until now this thought process remained only among polite company.

Russia Says ‘New World Order’ Being Formed
April 12, 2019

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared today that the Western, liberal model of society is dying, and a new world order is taking its place. Lavrov made the comments at his annual meeting with students and professors at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, reported Russian state news agency TASS.

“The Western liberal model of development, which particularly stipulates a partial loss of national sovereignty – this is what our Western colleagues aimed at when they invented what they called globalization – is losing its attractiveness and is no more viewed as a perfect model for all. Moreover, many people in the very western countries are skeptical about it,” Lavrov said.

According to him, global development is guided “by processes aimed at boosting multipolarity and what we call a polycentric world order.”


Posted at 8:43 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

If You Can’t Take A Joke, Don’t Go To Britain!
April 12, 2019

What a way to start a Friday Folks!  

     The Good Morning report starts off with Gold trading higher after a day of forced shorts sending the noble metal sharply lower, only to see enough buying coming in sending Au to a high of $1,299.10 with the trade right now at $1,295.70, up $2.40 with a low at $1,294.30. Silver is leading the charge this morning after yesterday’s morality beating with the trade now at $14.97, up 10.3 cents with the high at $15.035 and a low at $14.90. The US Dollar has lost all of yesterday’s support with the trade now at 96.495, down 31.9 points just above the low of 96.425 with the high at 96.815. All this was done before 5 am pst and the Comex open. The emerging markets Venezuelan Currency now has Gold priced at 12,940.80 Bolivar showing an additional loss of 87.89 from yesterday’s beatings with Silver now at 149.513, a loss of .699 Bolivar.    

     April Silver’s Delivery demands sure got settled out during yesterday’s trade with the request count now at 1 contract waiting for physical proving a drop of 15 obligations and with Zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. With this kind of buying activity going on inside the delivery system one would suspect the short traders to lighten up the risk a bit but noooo! Instead, they added an additional 7,384 more short contracts to control (stay) the prices as we see the game reach its pinnacle as the total Open Interest in Silver is now at 220,355 Overnighters, yet Silver is now trading higher against the shorts …. Hmmm, with all this short pressure being applied keeping the prices (only) steady, one has to wonder how deep the pockets are of the buyers who are taking on the short trade at these cheap ass prices and at least 13 days away from the May Precious Metals Options Expirations.  

     Our eyes are on Britain this weekend with the supposed enforcers of western market law gathering at the “U.S., European Banking Union, and UK Officials Meet for Planned Coordination Exercise on Cross-Border Resolution Planning”. Such a fluffy name for a group that has already allowed the major banks to collude with one another till one got caught and ratted out the rest. We’re hoping some actual law enforcement may be finally applied, but these are political appointees, so we have to wait to see what they “don’t” do for now. Regardless of this gathering, the precious metals are bound to go higher because of all the international printing going on as it seems everyone has turned negative on economic growth.  


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This Game Of More Buying Making Prices Cheaper, Should Not Last Much Longer
April 11, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,  

    The Monkey hammer is out with the beatings continuing till morale is improved with Gold down $9.40 at $1,304.50, right beside the low at $1,304.20 with a high at $1313.10. Silver seems to always lead the downside when the shorts force the issue with its trade at $15.04, down 20.4 cents and is the low with the high at $15.215. The US Dollar is not getting much of a boost from this push as the trades value is now pegged at 96.65, up 9.2 cents with the usual caveat, right at the high of 96.665 with a low at 96.50. All of this is done way before the Comex Open and 5 am pst. In Venezuela Gold is now pegged at 13,028.69, proving the markets took back 30.97 Bolivar with Silver at 150.212 Bolivar, losing 1.89 overnight.  

     April Silver’s Delivery Demands got an extra boost in purchasing yesterday as another 18 lot was added to the fray, yet the numbers on the board do not show the additions to the delivery count, with the April OI still at 16 demands for physical and with a Volume of 1 up on the board so far this morning. It is apparent purchasing doesn’t matter until they have nothing to deliver, so we’ll keep an eye on the numbers and report till our markets make the corrections of a life time. If this type of delivery issue is not evidence enough to prove purchasing at Comex no longer gives a real price discovery, then maybe the constant increase in the Overall Open Interest will help prove our accusations as the OI continues to climb with the count now totaling 212,971 Overnighters. The shorts added another 3,981 more positions to stay the price even though a larger purchase than was already scheduled was placed and settled. This game of more buying making prices cheaper, should not last much longer.  

     The past couple of days had lots of FOMC data and British BS to cloud the airwaves, but there was also more discovery presented providing evidence that the past administration was doing illegal spying on Americans because of party affiliation as Attorney General William Barr admitted on Wednesday that the Obama administration ‘spied’ on President Trump, and has vowed to get to the bottom of it. After yesterday’s finale with Maxine, friends, and AG Barr, Q posted;


Posted at 9:10 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Pass the popcorn…the show is the same, only the actors have changed.


Trump Cares About Two Things Empire And The Stock Market
April 8, 2019

Though not surprising, it’s nevertheless extraordinary to watch Donald Trump publicly and shamelessly morph into a George W. Bush era neocon when it comes to foreign policy, and a CNBC stock market cheerleader when it comes to the economy. Just like Barack Obama before him, Trump talked a good populist game on two issues of monumental importance (foreign policy and the rigged economy), but once elected immediately turned around and prioritized the core interests of oligarchy.

Trump doesn’t even give lip service to big picture populist topics anymore unless they’re somehow related to the culture war, which works out perfectly for the entrenched oligarchy since the culture war primarily serves as a useful distraction to keep the rabble squabbling while apex societal predators loot whatever’s left of this hollowed out neo-feudal economy.

The pivot toward status quo consensus when it comes to two of the most existential issues facing the nation should be deeply concerning to everyone, but particularly to those who thought Donald Trump would be different. When it comes to militarism and empire, Trump’s hypocrisy and bait and switch is one for the record books. Just as it became clear Obama was a fraud once he hired Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner (we later found out his cabinet was apparently chosen by Citibank), Trump placing neocons Mike Pompeo and John Bolton into key positions was a clear sign you could take “Make America Great Again” and flush it down the toilet. This administration is now laser focused on maintaining and even expanding imperial reach.


Posted at 10:07 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

European Central Bankers “Stay” The Rates
April 10, 2019

Good Hump Day Morning Folks,  

     Gold is flat to lower this morning with the trade at $1,307.60, down 70 cents and close to the low at $1,305.10 with the high at $1,309.30. Silver, which gave us the sell signal after yesterday’s Comex close, is trading at $15.23, up 1.9 cents yet closer to the high at $15.25 than the low at $15.115, making a mess of things since this signal has been used by algos ever since instant messages became the popular review for investigators. The US Dollar has been steadily heading lower but not enough to scare out the foreign buyers, who are sopping up as much American debt as they can in order to escape the failings of the Euro, with the Dollars trade at 96.525, down 8.6 points and right beside the low at 96.51 with the high at 96.695. All this was done sometime before 5 am pst and the Comex Open. In Venezuela, Gold’s early morning price is now at 13,059.66 Bolivar, gaining another 19.98 overnight with Silver at 152.110, losing 1/10th of a Bolivar.    

     April Silver’s delivery demands fell by one contract during yesterday’s trade. I watched the sale occur, priced at 15.26 (a buyer and seller agreed), yet Comex closed the April Contract at 15.168, a fake settling price at the exchange. This was a single contract traded, yet they are able to game the price lower offering 2 prices, one the real buy, the other, a fake settling price (not a traded price). This is when they use the back month’s trades to “calculate” the deliveries settling prices, in our opinion, it should be the other way around. As far as this morning totals, we show the Open Interest in April Deliveries of Silver at 16 contracts with a Volume of 4 up on the board so far today. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to climb higher and higher with the count now at 208,990 Overnighters. A gain of 2,145 Obligations added in order to stay the price bringing us, once again, closer to the life of contract highs in OI at the same time Silver is way below the average production costs.    


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

– New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak; Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Faces Still Further Downside Revision; First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom
– Current, Positive Economic Expectations Should Drop Sharply, Following Heavily Negative Economic Releases, April 16th to 25th, Leading Into the Initial First-Quarter 2019 GDP Estimate on April 26th
– Series Facing Near-Term Negative Catch-Up Reporting and/or Intensifying, Negative First-Quarter Trends Include: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Freight Activity, Home Sales, Construction and the Trade Deficit

“Bullet Edition No. 6”

Posted at 12:55 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Canadian Crypto Exchange QuadrigaCX Officially Declared Bankrupt
April 8, 2019

Canada’s major cryptocurrency exchange QuadrigaCX has been officially declared bankrupt, local media outlet CBC reported on April 8.

Quadriga’s bankruptcy was reportedly approved today by Nova Scotia Supreme Court Justice Michael Wood, and follows the court monitor Ernst & Young’s (EY) recommendation that it should be declared bankrupt earlier this month.

EY’s legal team then argued that the ongoing restructuring process for QuadrigaCX under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) should shift to an alternative process under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA).

The ruling now grants EY enhanced investigative powers as a trustee under the BIA, which means the company can require production of documents and testimony from witnesses.


Posted at 12:50 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Holy shit.

Courtesy of JB.


Today’s Press Release

U.S., European Banking Union, and UK Officials Meet for Planned Coordination Exercise on Cross-Border

Resolution Planning

WASHINGTON— Senior officials representing resolution, regulatory and supervisory authorities, central banks, and finance ministries in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Banking Union will hold a meeting on Saturday, April 13, as part of a series of planned exercises to enhance understanding of one another’s resolution regimes for global systemically important banks and strengthen coordination on cross-border resolution.

This meeting builds upon two prior exercises in 2014 and 2016. The exercise is planned to coincide with the annual international meetings in Washington sponsored by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will host the exercise. Other senior officials from the United States are expected from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Expected participants from the European Banking Union include senior officials from the Single Resolution Board, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank.

Expected participants from the United Kingdom include senior officials from HM Treasury, the Bank of England, and the Prudential Regulation Authority.


Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 to restore public confidence in the nation’s banking system. The FDIC insures deposits at the nation’s banks and savings associations, 5,406 as of December 31, 2018. It promotes the safety and soundness of these institutions by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to which they are exposed. The FDIC receives no federal tax dollars—insured financial institutions fund its operations.

FDIC press releases and other information are available on the Internet at, by subscription electronically (go to and may also be obtained through the FDIC’s Public Information Center (877-275-3342 or 703-562-2200). PR-33-2019