Posted at 12:04 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Telegraphing what’s to come.

The “Golden Swan”?

“Of course, dumping US Treasuries would impede China’s economic growth if dollar assets were sold and converted back into renminbi (which would appreciate). But China could diversify its reserves by converting them into another liquid asset that is less vulnerable to US primary or secondary sanctions, namely gold.

Indeed, both China and Russia have been stockpiling gold reserves (overtly and covertly), which explains the 30% spike in gold prices since early 2019.”

unnamed

One day, out of the blue, the Golden Swan will catch us all by surprise.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Dr.Doom On Gold & ‘The White Swans Of 2020’
February 19, 2020

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as “white swans.”

According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution.

But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: they are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes.

There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point – the “Minsky Moment” – when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns,” but rather the “known unknowns.”

More…

Guys,

This narration came from one of my good friends in radio. It’s about farmers and it needs to be shared!

Denny

So God Made A Farmer: The Mike Bloomberg Edition
February 19, 2020

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZvGsMN_FUw&feature=emb_title

More…

Jim/Bill,

There has been much talk about the soaring debt levels.

A look at the chart below makes one think of Zimbabwe or Weimer Germany.

eifme9yu0ae8xnz

Yet a friend of mine stated that when push comes to shove, President Trump will simply fall back on his M.O. which is “Default on the debt”.  Then we’ll start anew.

I said, “think about that for a moment.  If we default who will feel the pain?  Pension funds own bonds, banks own bonds, funds own bonds, foreign corporations own bonds, Central Banks own bonds, etc.

If we default, it will waves of bankruptcies throughout the world and spiral us into a major global depression.  (The only survivors will those who own gold and silver).

Furthermore, all faith in the U.S. Dollar will be lost and hence, hyperinflation will come to be.

Hyperinflation on top of depression!  an event that will no doubt leave everyone speechless.

On another note, look at the period between 1980 and 1990 on the chart.  Those were the Reagan years of renewed prosperity.

His magic bullet was “print your way to prosperity”.  And eventually someone will have to pay.

Jimmy Carter lost the election to Reagan on 2 counts:  The Iran hostage crisis and an $800 billion debt!

yet when Reagan left office, it looks like we hit $3 trillion in debt.  And nobody cared.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang,

As we have been saying, “one man’s debt is another man’s asset”…

Bill

Jim/Bill,

Yellen says that the FED should buy stocks.

Speaking via video conference with bankers in Kansas City, Yellen said

that the Fed would take a page out of the SNB and BOJ playbook, and might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds.”

Yes, it is illegal.  But we can simply change the law overnight.

I don’t know about you, but imagine the cost of bailing out a 20,000 point drop in the Dow!

The money needing to be printed to do this is mind boggling.  (But don’t worry, not only can we default on our bonds, we can also default on our Dollar)

Yellen also believes another financial crisis will not come in our lifetimes.

File under “Famous Last Words”.

“Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”

Hey girl, take a step closer to the abyss and take a look down!

Come on now, don’t be afraid.

It will only hurt if the ledge gives way.  Which………I don’t believe it will.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yellen Says Fed Should Buy Stocks In The Next Crisis
February 18, 2020

Back in June 2017, there were several odd moment of bizarre honesty coupled with schizophrenic confusion under Janet Yellen’s Fed.

First there was San Fran Fed president John Williams, who would eventually on to become the Fed’s #2 when he took over as head of the NY Fed in 2019, who said that “there seems to be a priced-to-perfection attitude out there” and that the stock market rally “still seems to be running very much on fumes.” Williams added that “we are seeing some reach for yield, and some, maybe, excess risk-taking in the financial system with very low rates. As we move interest rates back to more-normal, I think that that will, people will pull back on that.”

Then it was then-Fed vice chairman Stan Fischer’s turn, who echoed Williams in saying that “the increase in prices of risky assets in most asset markets over the past six months points to a notable uptick in risk appetites…. Measures of earnings strength, such as the return on assets, continue to approach pre-crisis levels at most banks, although with interest rates being so low, the return on assets might be expected to have declined relative to their pre-crisis levels–and that fact is also a cause for concern.” Fischer then also said that the corporate sector is “notably leveraged”, that it would be foolish to think that all risks have been eliminated, and called for “close monitoring” of rising risk appetites.

Finally, none other than then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that some asset prices had become “somewhat rich” although like Fischer, she hedged that prices are fine… if only assumes record low rates in perpetuity: “Asset valuations are somewhat rich if you use some traditional metrics like price earnings ratios, but I wouldn’t try to comment on appropriate valuations, and those ratios ought to depend on long-term interest rates.”

More…

Jim/Bill,

A warning sign?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yes Wolfgang,

This is the “Yogi Berra chart”…looks like De va ju all over again!

Bill

Dear Chart of the Day Fan:
Here’s my chart for today. I’ll talk about it shortly after 3:30 p.m. Eastern (12:30 p.m. Pacific) on the Bloomberg Businessweek radio show. Also, I’ll present
my Stock of the Day just after 4:05 p.m. (1:05 p.m.) on the radio and later on social media. You can hear me on Bloomberg Radio or see me at Bloomberg Global News on YouTube. Earlier charts are on my Tumblr page.

Thanks for your interest. It’s appreciated.

Untitled

Shares of U.S. regional banks are suffering just as they did two decades ago, when an Internet-driven bull market ended. A comparison between the KBW Regional Banking Index of 50 lenders and the S&P 500 Index shows as much. The industry gauge’s ratio to the S&P 500 fell Tuesday to its lowest reading since September 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tuesday’s close was 39% lower than a peak in December 2016. “Regional banks not crashing on a relative basis” would be a reason to turn bullish about U.S. stocks, J.C. Parets, editor of the All Star Charts blog, wrote in a post Sunday.

Sincerely,
David Wilson

Jim/Bill,

Who would be hurt by a default on our debt?

Or, if your in the mindset of “America would NEVER do that”, then look at it another way: Who would be hurt by a normalization of interest rates?

Either way….scary shit! (excuse the language).

We are no longer approaching ground zero; we are AT ground zero.

The largest buyers, and those with the positive trade surpluses to invest, have left the game and are now sellers (Russia, China, Japan, Germany, Mexico). All that basically remains is the Fed, government funds such as pension and Social Security, US Banks, and other US entities (pension funds, institutions, insurance companies, corporations, and individuals).

Pulling a default is like holding a gun to your own foot and pulling the trigger. (I would have preferred to another body part but it would be too graphic).

All that is left is…drumroll please……….MONETIZATION.

Hell, even helicopter drops would be too slow.

You’d need a quicker and more massive means…..

unnamed (1)

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Wolfgang is on a total roll today! I want whatever vitamins he is on…

Bill

Who Bought The $1.3 Trillion In Debt The US Government Added In 2019?
February 19, 2019

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Treasury securities are hot. The Fed backed up the truck. US banks & others bought too. But China dumped…

The US Gross National Debt spiked by $1.3 trillion over the past 12 months, to $23.3 trillion. These days, trillions fly by so fast it’s hard to see them. But these are the good times. And we don’t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn:

3

More…

Posted at 11:52 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

President Trump’s frustration over lack of criminal Deep State prosecutions by his DOJ bubbled out to his more than 70 million Twitter followers this week. From Comey, McCabe, the phony dossier of the Russia Hoax and FISA abuse, it was all put out for the world to see. Trump called the Mueller report a “fraudulent investigation,” and Trump also tweeted, “….badly tainted . . . . Even Mueller’s statement to Congress that he did not see me to become the FBI Director (again), has been proven false. The whole deal was a total SCAM. If I wasn’t President, I’d be suing everyone all over the place…”

If prosecutions were getting done, President Trump would not be threatening to sue, says former CIA Officer Kevin Shipp. Shipp goes on to say, “What the President is doing is tweeting and communicating with the American people because the press is going to cover it up, and the Deep State is not going to let that sort of thing out. This is the beauty of his tweets . . . . He is telling us what is really going on. . . . These prosecutors, going all the way back to Mueller . . . have engaged in prosecutorial misconduct, and nothing has been done to them. This has been allowed to go on, and Trump is basically saying the evidence and information is there that is solid enough that he could sue if he wanted to . . . . The American people need to know about it, and when the American people know about it, people get up in arms and people start taking action. . . . . We, the American people, need to hold Attorney General Barr accountable for doing his job. We are all hoping AG Barr and John Durham are going to do their jobs, but what we have seen lately is quite concerning.”

More…

Posted at 11:51 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– January 2020 CASS Freight Index Dropped by 9.4% (-9.4%) Year-to-Year
– Current, Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Increasingly Resemble the Onset of the Great Recession
– Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Are Not Consistent With a Booming Economy
– They Also Do Not Support FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
– They Are Consistent With Fourth-Quarter Contractions Seen in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales

“Flash Update No. 23”

www.shadowstats.com

Posted at 9:47 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

      Gold is in the green in the early morning with the April trade at $1,589.80, up only $3.40 after reaching $1,592.40 before “the calm” was put into place with the low at $1,581.80. Silver is up as well with the March contract at $17.845, up 11.1 cents after hitting $17.895 with the low at $17.670. The US Dollar’s rate continues to move higher with the value pegged at 99.135 up 13.2 points and right by the high at 99.160 with the low down at 99.030. Of course, all of this happened already while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Japan (or the US?) allowed the passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship to go free a day before their incubation period ended

      The Emerging Markets Currency Watch continues to show the value of currencies failing as the precious metals rise with Venezuela’s Bolivar holding Gold’s value at 15,878.13 providing the holder an additional 55.93 in Bolivar value with Silver adding another 0.749 with its price now at 178.227 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso has Gold valued at 97,767.33 it too adding more to yesterdays price to the tune of 521.24 Peso’s with Silver at 1,096.83 Peso’s popping in an additional 6.06. The Turkish Lira’s value for Gold now sits at 9,649.74 showing a 66.51 T-Lira increase in value with Silver increasing by 0.816 of a Lira with the price at 108.314.

      February Silver’s Delivery requests have stagnated with no trades or swaps done since last Thursday leaving that lonely number 1 up on the board and with no Volume. So, how come it’s taking Comex so long to settle this one lot order that’s been out there since last Thursday? Can’t be because they don’t have any Silver can it? After all, a certain element supposedly has a bunch of Silver sitting in its folds, unconfirmed by any outside auditing source and with that famous disclaimer at the bottom of the COMEX inventory count that says ““The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only” and since, June 3, 2013. Their post should also include; “this information, in no way should be used for trading purposes, it is only for entertainment.” Silver’s Overall Open Interest sits at 231,131 Obligations, virtually unchanged from yesterday even though the Commodities did trade during most of the holiday, showing how the rest of the world moves money around while our numbers are artificially “stayed in place”.

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands are also stuck at 699 fully paid for contracts with this morning’s Volume at 72 when yesterday’s “holiday” Volume was at 27, helping to proving once again the holes in the Comex accounting procedures. If all this activity is traceable within the computerized systems, the updates should show up as they occur, so why are the deliveries, swaps, buys/sells, not posted even if there was a federal holiday? Yesterday’s “Delivery” low just so happens to be same price as today at $1,579.80 with a new high at $1,588.30 as the purchasing carries on with the last trade at $1,586.10. Comex Gold’s Open Interest is also unchanged from yesterday’s numbers with the count at 687,921. At the very least, the Comex is consistent in “not reporting”. Billions of dollars trade in the precious metals with people going against the computer algos, so this updated information, inside these computer-generated trades, is imo, intentionally not being posted for a reason.

      Yesterday’s “later in the day” reports on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship was quite unsettling. The last confirmed tally before my write up brought the infected count to 355. After our post, Japan gave out another infection count totaling 542 showing the acceleration as we watched the passengers leave the petri dish. Admittedly, I do not have the knowledge to say this is right or wrong, but the infections acceleration in body count, makes me wonder wtf is going on? Within an 8-day period, we watched the infection count go from 135 to 542 more than quadrupling last week’s Monday tally. We have to allow those who have the knowledge, to make the right decisions based on what is known, so we have to trust “those on the ground” with making good decisions. Bringing back our people to be sequestered here instead of an encapsulated cruise ship, imo, may not be a good idea at all. Alas, our American brothers and sisters are home, to be cared for by our specialists. I hope these people know what they are doing, because I sure don’t understand who/what/why this was done?

     Things are changing daily, and with that, my posts are being brought into the paid for side. I hope you have gleaned value from my missives. There will be more information brought in as we move forward in the ever-changing world of precious metals and the declines in all fiat. So, keep that smile on your face and a prayer for all in the heart, and as always…

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 11:33 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Have SIRI? Or Alexa? Or even just a “smart” (dumbass) phone that you keep in your pocket? They know whether or not you’re regular or just have gas…Then they check your credit card to see what you had for supper last night? Don’t believe it?

Siri is Now Refusing to Say the Word “Gun”
February 12, 2020

Apple’s Siri voice assistant is now apparently refusing to say the word “gun” when used on an iPad.

Tracy Connors tweeted a video of herself attempting to have Siri read out a Daily Caller headline entitled ‘Virginia House of Delegates Passes Gun Ban, Seizure Bill’.

Instead of saying the word ‘gun’, Siri spelled out the letters G-U-N.

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Is he suggesting the “civilized” would never stoop so low because they get their corn from the supermarket?

Bloomberg Frames Farmers As Primitive Idiots In Demeaning Diatribe
February 17, 2020

Michael Bloomberg isn’t making any friends in the agriculture industry, after video of the former NYC Mayor surfaced of him describing farmers as having simple jobs that don’t require much intelligence, according to the Washington Times.

“I could teach anybody, even the people in this room” to be a farmer, said Bloomberg during a 2016 talk at Oxford University in a now-viral clip in which he called agriculture a “process”

“You dig a hole, you put a seed in, you put dirt on top, add water, up comes the corn, he added.

Bloomberg then described metalworkers similarly.

“You put the piece of metal in the lathe, you turn the crank in the direction of the arrow, and you can have a job,” he continued.

More…

Posted at 10:31 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

      Gold is starting the week off in the red with April Gold at $1,584.20, down $2.20 after hardly dipping down to $1,581.80, with the “hardly a high” at $1,586.80. Silver is aiming at the opposite direction, trading in the green with the March contract at $17.77 up 3.6 cents with its high at $17.865 and the low at $17.670. Even our Dollar is in holiday trade mode with the trade held at 99.035, up 3.2 points and close to the high at 99.045 with the low at 98.935. Of course all of this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Bloomberg suggested Hillary as a VP runner on the Democratic ticket, which was immediately met with State Farm Cancels Bloomberg’s Life Insurance After Hillary’s VP Announcement. PS, before you send in your rhetorical emails, read the whole thing.

      Even the Emerging Market Currencies are showing the trouble the shorts are in. In Venezuela, their currency now has Gold price at 15,822.20 Bolivar, giving those that bought already a 46.94 gain with Silver at 177.478, showing a gain of 0.899 Bolivar. In Argentina, their Peso price for Gold now sits at 97,246.09 popping in an additional 400.065 A-Peso’s since our Friday report with Silver at 1,090.77 Peso’s showing an additional gain of 6.78. Over in Turkey, Gold’s price is now trading at 9,583.23, showing a gain of 9.26 T-Lira with Silver gaining 0.338 of a Lira with the last trade at 107.498.

      February Silver’s Delivery Demands have not budged since last Thursday with the Open Interest still stuck at 1 and with zero Volume once again up on the board. The Overall Open Interest, however, jumped by 5,406 controlling contracts, proving the shorts are up against the trade bringing the total to 231,131 Overnighters during Friday’s 11+ cent rally. This proves to us the idea of how stuck the shorts are with the count only 13,065 contracts away from making a new all-time paper high. As long as the price is used as a measure and not the papers behind it, people who watch the financial news services will believe things are static, while we (and the DOJ?) watch the movements behind the price.

      February Gold’s Delivery Demands is doing just the opposite of Silver’s with the Demand Count now at 699 fully paid for contracts, proving a reduction of 27 receipts from Friday’s quote and with a Volume of 10 posted up on the board with a trading range between $1,580.00 and $1,579.80, with the last trade at the high. As a side note here, February Deliveries for Gold is a primary delivery month, unlike Silver (March is Ag’s pdm). Gold’s Overall Open Interest gained 13,657 more short contracts on Friday’s gains proving the Overall Count to be at 687,921 Obligations, bringing the score closer to making another HSBC all time “paper contract” high once it passes 798,541 Overnighters.

      It seems Hong Kong is having a “Just In Time” supply issue as basic needs are becoming harder and harder to find with one instance showing a truckload of toilet paper being stolen right off the truck. The entire JIT system is proving to be an issue, and now for all nations, because China is pretty much in a complete shutdown with over 80 cities locked up one way or another. Yesterday’s NYP pointed out a very scary issue with the Diamond Princess cruise ship infection count reaching up to 355 souls. So, from last Monday’s Petri dish thesis to now, the count increased by 220 (above the starting point at 135), more than doubling the count in under a weeks’ time. We feel that this Wednesday release date given by the Japan’s authorities, will be extended, maybe up to and beyond the 24 days China has imposed. Now we see a Supposed 760 million (+/-) people in China are under some type of restriction, and with no real trustworthy data coming from the nation as their system of population control, may prove to be under a complete change, that is if they don’t start immediately saving the lives of their minions.

      We have prepared by becoming our very own warehouse since JIT is failing. We have accumulated over 6 months of foods that we eat normally, in addition all types of hygiene products, along with an additional “bleach in a spray bottle” to squirt down any incoming packages coming from anywhere, and the medicines we need to sit tight for up to a year. Also of note, inside our own personal petri dish, we have not received any of our purchases from China in over 1-1/2 months, that won’t bother us too much since it’s only fishing equipment. I even asked our mail carrier if she knew if packages from China were being shuttered. She said her orders haven’t even shown up either, and it seemed to me she was not telling me all she knew too (they must have discussed this at higher levels). We hope there is a solution, yet we feel it best to be overprepared.

      Keep the attitudes positive, because it really does keep sickness away. Have a smile on your face for all you see, and a prayer in the heart for those infected. Now is not the time to blame, now is the time to prepare and to stay away from traveling and the crowds, until we’re given the “All Clear”. Enjoy President’s Day, and as always …

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

Posted at 11:19 AM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday release)

Money manager Michael Pento has long warned about China’s rapid accumulation of debt that now stands at $40 trillion. The coronavirus coming out of China is only going to make China’s problems far worse. Pento explains, “China has the biggest amassing of debt the world has ever seen and at the fastest pace never before matched in history. This is a country teetering on meltdown. Multinational companies like Nike, Apple and Google . . . major U.S. corporations are saying we cannot give accurate readings for what’s going to happen in all of 2020, and yet Wall Street doesn’t care.  It is because China, the United States and all the other central banks are printing money like never before trying to mollify the effects of this virus. . . . We are going to have a global recession in the first quarter of 2020. U.S. GDP will be lucky if it gets to 1%. Singapore is warning about a recession. Australia is warning about a recession. The Eurozone, which is China’s biggest customer, is going to be in a recession. Nobody cares because the maniac money printers have gone mad. . . . China is a country with $40 trillion in destabilizing debt. David Stockman calls it the Red Ponzi, and I could not agree more. Then you are taking a country that is already decelerating rapidly from before. . . . Their stock market has already been cut in half, and then you throw into this the coronavirus, which has virtually shut down the entire nation. It’s the second biggest economy on planet Earth, and Wall Street doesn’t care. ”

More…

Posted at 11:16 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Bill, 
Here’s the original broadcast for 1965. That’s right — 55 years ago!
Denny
…and 100% spot on today!
Bill