Posted at 12:09 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

I have no doubt that $1650 will come. My concern is not that it will not happen, but that I am much too conservative in my long-term price objective since 2000.

If major banks can be torn apart how can we have faith in the small local institutions that hold most of your ready cash?

When I said “This is IT,” it is not something that I take lightly. Never in 49 years in finance have I seen a set of circumstances so challenging to the man in the street.

What I am getting at is a simple question. Are you prepared? You have heard us talk repeatedly on removing financial intermediaries between you and your assets, but the time has come for us to recommend going one step further:

Hold enough cash at your household to last you a month or two. It may be largely unnecessary for the majority, but what do you have to lose? If your bank should fail this will save you a lot of grief in the short term. If they do not, you still have all your cash that can easily be deposited back into your account.


Posted at 12:08 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Extend Family,

Unless the LIBOR rate drops sharply we are facing a planetary financial crisis next week.

For God’s sake protect yourself.

Gold and gold related items will be the only true storehouses of wealth. The bailout bill is powerless to reverse what is now happening.

This is a modern day Weimar happening right before our eyes.

Respectfully yours,

Posted at 12:07 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,


According to our calculations, the major global central banks European, U.K., U.S. and others added about $1.8 trillion of cash liquidity to the global banking system in the last week.  The $700 billion U.S. Treasury’s bailout plan that the U.S. Congress will vote on tomorrow is symbolism along with action.  There will be many more “bailouts” before this is finished.

I predict that the public will soon become jaded to bailouts, but that they will continue to happen in the U.S. and elsewhere.  This is not an enjoyable thing to say, they are not even come close to liquidating all the bad debts in the global banking system.


It is easy to monitor the disease in the banking system, much like a doctor would monitor the deterioration or progress of a patient.  One has only to monitor the various indicators of stress on the banking system, (the three major types of interest rate spreads in the interbank market).  Today, all three of these spreads are much wider than they have ever been as banks are refusing to lend…even to other banks.  If a bank wants to borrow from another bank, the cost of borrowing is rising, not falling.

Government officials had hoped that by now the reverse would be the case.  To use the doctor analogy, if a doctor is monitoring the patient’s vital signs, they currently see them deteriorating.  All of the actions taken so far may have created the potential for improvement in the patient, but thus far, the patient is not improving at all.  In fact the patient is continuing to deteriorate.

To make matters worse, the entire hospital is contaminated with a disease (let’s call it “derivatives disease”), that can infect anyone in the hospital.  Will the patient also be infected by the hospital-wide disease which is out there ready to infect anyone (even the caregivers) on a moments notice?


What do we mean by a derivative in this context?  There are many kinds of derivatives, but the kind we are most worried about are derivatives insuring the performance of mortgage bonds (packages of mortgages put into a bond structure), or other mortgage related securities.  These derivatives have been written and guaranteed by institutions that do not have the money to pay them off if any of the underlying mortgages fail to pay at once.

As with life insurance, an assumption is made that not all life insurance policyholders will die on the same day.  Actuarial tables and mathematical models are used to determine life expectancies, and a life insurer makes sure its policyholders are of different ages.  In the case of a horrible event where millions die all at once, many life insurance policies might be delayed in payment or not paid at all.

Similarly, mortgage insurance assumes that not all mortgages fail at the same time…because historical mathematical models suggest they won’t.  This current economic downturn has brought this assumption into question.  If too many mortgages fail to pay at the same time, the insurers who write the derivative contracts will be unable to meet their obligations to insure the mortgages.  By the way, there are hundreds of trillions of dollars of these derivatives.

The above is a simplistic answer to a very complex question, and it is not meant to explain every detail, but we hope it makes the point about why we are nervous about the effects of a specific type of credit default insurance derivative.  Derivatives like these are frequently referred to by the media and politicians as the “toxic paper” clogging the financial system.  We also have grave doubts about these and other types of derivatives, but more on that later.


The derivatives disease is going to have to be dealt with.  It has the potential to be much more devastating than the bad loan disease that the patient is currently fighting.

To fight the bad loan disease, the bad loans can be marked down to a clearing value and sold to investors.  These investors are willing to bet that they can make money buying the bad loans at a low enough price, because some percentage of them will pay off.

The derivatives disease has the ability to infect anyone, because there are so many entities involved.  If one party makes a mistake on their derivatives, and they cannot keep their part of the agreement, every other counterparty to the derivative will have to pay it for them.  To fight derivatives disease you must be sure that everyone else with whom you have derivative agreements is healthy, and behaves in such a way that they stay healthy.

This is proving to be a very difficult problem, because the total that may be needed to be paid to settle failed derivatives, far exceeds the total liquid assets available in the world banking system today.

In many cases, the derivatives are too complicated to easily know who owns the asset and who owns the cash flow from the asset.  Even the most sophisticated money managers, accountants and attorneys who work in this area don’t fully understand the derivatives that they are dealing with, and all the risks involved.  The derivatives disease will create big fees for accountants and lawyers who would be like doctors who work to cure the patient.

Then, if the patient expires, work must be done on an estate liquidation to find out which party gets which asset and which liability in an estate settlement.  A long time will pass before the final chapter is written in this saga.

Of course, as the hospital bills mount, the taxpayers are asked to pony up.

Thanks for listening.

Monty Guild and Tony Danaher

Posted at 2:21 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Who paid the three? Was the homeless man really homeless? What has the performance of Barclay’s Wealth Fund been?

A banker robs his employers at the Bank Espirito Sancto of the Vatican and he ends up hanging himself under the London Bridge.

Money people who kill others with abandon and without any regret are not isolated from instant Karma.

Investors are livid. I am livid. All those including the man in the street are livid beyond imagination at those that use criminality for profit everywhere.

I am thinking of inviting a few people to a special meeting in Toronto in February so I can introduce them to you. That is if they are still available.

Arrests Over Top Banker’s Murder
7:01pm UK, Tuesday September 30, 2008

Three people have been arrested over the murder of a top banker who was beaten to death while trying to save a homeless man. Frank McGarahan, 45, chief operating officer of Barclays Wealth, was set upon by a group of men in Norwich at 3am on Sunday.

The father of two, from Much Hadham, Hertfordshire, had been queuing for a taxi with relatives at the time.

Detectives said three men – all in their early twenties and from the Norwich area – had been arrested. They are being held at police stations across Norfolk.

Sky’s Angela Corpe, at the scene of the attack in Norwich, added: “Police say they desperately do not want people to think this case is now closed, and anyone with any further information should come forward.” Mr McGarahan stepped in when he spotted a gang attacking the homeless Lithuanian man, who was walking a dog with his girlfriend.

Detective Superintendent Chris Hobley, heading the inquiry, said there was an “exchange of words” then Mr McGarahan was hurt.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As they say, a picture speaks a thousand words.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You have all the fax numbers for the Senate as well as phone numbers for both the House and Senate, so please use them. Tell them whatever you want but make sure you tell them as they are for the first time in history sensitive to incoming commentary.

House limits constituent e-mails to prevent crash
By Jordy Yager
Posted: 09/30/08 01:16 PM [ET]

The House is limiting e-mails from the public to prevent its websites from crashing due to the enormous amount of mail being submitted on the financial bailout bill.

As a result, some constituents may get a ‘try back at a later time’ response if they use the House website to e-mail their lawmakers about the bill defeated in the House on Monday in a 205-228 vote.

“We were trying to figure out a way that the website wouldn’t completely crash,” said Jeff Ventura, a spokesman for the Chief Administrative Office (CAO), which oversees the upkeep of the House website and member e-mail services.

The CAO issued a “Dear Colleague” letter Tuesday morning informing offices that it had placed a limit on the number of e-mails sent via the “Write Your Representative” function of the House website. It said the limit would be imposed during peak e-mail traffic hours.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I am so hard pressed to grasp the Super Bowl presentation of the Bailout bill that hasn’t the funds, even at its high, to provide the ability to bail out the world financial system.

Financial Tsunami: The End of the World as We Knew It
by F. William Engdahl
Global Research, September 30, 2008

The unexpected rejection by the US Congress of the Bush Administration financial rescue plan, TARP on September 29 has opened up the spectre for the first time of a 1931-style domino wave of worldwide bank failures. That is already underway across the US banking spectrum with the failure, nationalization or forced liquidation in the past two weeks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, of the giant Washington Mutual mortgage lender, of the nation’s fourth largest deposit bank, Wachovia. That was on top of a wave of smaller bank failures that began with IndyMac in the spring. For some it is appealing and more simple to grasp the magnitude of these titanic events in the US-centered financial world by assuming it is all part of a pre-planned grand conspiracy by the Money Masters, what in the 1920s in the USA was termed the Money Trust, to control the entire financial world.

As the details of the present crisis reveal, there are huge ideological fault lines making for chaos and a potential meltdown of the Laissez Faire financial system. That present system, which was built on the back of Wall Street financial and banking deregulation since 1987 when Alan Greenspan, a devout follower and close friend of radical individualist Ayn Rand, became Wall Street’s man at the Federal Reserve for almost 19 years, is over now with the failure of the Henry Paulson $700 billion bailout scheme. Governments worldwide now face no alternative but to begin the painful process of putting the financial genie back in the bottle and re-regulating an out-of-control financial system. The failure of the UK Government and the US Government to address that fundamental issue is behind the present crisis of confidence.

A brief look at history

The Great Depression in Germany in 1931 began with a seemingly minor event-the collapse of a bank in Vienna, Creditanstalt, that May. For readers interested in more on the remarkable parallels between that crisis and that of today, I recommend the treatment in my earlier volume, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order.


9th Commandment Unilaterally Cancelled.

Regulators have informed us this morning that Moses, having involved himself in politics (head of a nation), and markets (Golden Idol) misstated the tablets received from God.

There are no ten commandments. There are only nine. We should have always guessed that the 9th commandment was a fib and this AM it was unilaterally notated by US regulators.

“Thou Shalt Not Lie” we are now told was always in fact itself a lie.

Financial entities no longer have to mark OTC derivatives to some reasonable nothingness, but rather market to hold to maturity value.

What makes you think that at maturity (of what) there will be satisfactory value of any kind? These are not mortgages. These are geek creation OTC derivatives on mortgages living way down at the bottom of a 20 foot equation. On top of all that if one side of the special performance contract (OTC derivatives) goes broke, like Lehman did, notional value becomes full value.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It is being reported today that many hedge funds that had been clients and used the facilities of Lehman are in trouble and may close down.

The translation of that is that when bankruptcy of one side of an OTC derivative fails then Notional Value becomes Total Value, a fact no one seems to have focused on when the Fed walked away from Lehman. Walking away from Lehman was in order to send a message. The message appears to have been “Holy S**t!”

GE is yet to own up to the fact that their problem is OTC derivatives. They were a major player.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do something other than simple carping. Tell this gang what you want done on this so-called Bailout Bill. Let your opinion be heard, by fax, phone or both.

Click here to view a complete contact list of Senators…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Recognize the manipulative tactic common to jitneys out of Canada. Notice the preferential treatment for Google.

Google price corrected after trading snafu
Closing price adjusted after shares of the tech giant plummet due to erroneous trade. Change to final Nasdaq value to follow.
By Ben Rooney, staff writer
Last Updated: September 30, 2008: 8:06 PM ET

NEW YORK ( — An accidental trade drove shares of Google Inc. to unbelievable lows Tuesday, causing the Nasdaq to correct the stock’s closing price and adjust the index’s final value.

The Internet search engine’s stock appeared to have plummeted to a low of $25.80 at one point during the session. Shares opened at $396 and traded in a relatively tight range before dropping sharply near the close of trade.

“A market participant sent in a large number of orders and drove the price down at approximately [3:57 p.m. ET] which caused the bid-offer to be artificially low due to their mistake,” according to a Nasdaq spokesman.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

News from Pakistan.

US drone strike kills five in Pakistan: officials
Updated: 2008-10-01 09:19

MIRANSHAH, Pakistan — A US pilotless drone fired two missiles at a house in northwest Pakistan killing five people, Pakistani intelligence agency officials said Wednesday.

Frustrated by an intensifying Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, US forces have in the past month carried out seven missile strikes by pilotless drones and a commando raid on the Pakistani side of the border.

In the latest attack, a drone fired two missiles at a house near the town of Mir Ali in North Waziristan, at about midnight Tuesday (1800 GMT), two intelligence agency officials said.

The area is a known sanctuary for Pakistani Taliban and foreign militants near the Afghan border.

“We have reports of five dead including foreign militants,” said one of the officers, who declined to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the media.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following is nothing other than Legalized Fabrication.

SEC gives banks more leeway on mark-to-market
Wed Oct 1, 2008 3:24am EDT
By John Poirier and Emily Chasan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. securities regulators on Tuesday gave the financial industry a reprieve from marking hard-to-value assets down to fire sale prices, throwing a lifeline to an industry beset by strained credit markets and the latest round of bank failures.

The U.S. stock market added to gains on the news, in hopes that regulators’ new interpretation of fair value, or mark-to-market, accounting rules, will slow or reverse the heavy flow of mortgage-related losses on banks’ balance sheets.

In the new guidance, first reported by Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reminded financial services firms that they don’t need to use fire sale prices when evaluating their hard to price assets.

“This is a significant first step and adds stability, confidence, and liquidity within the capital markets,” said Steve Bartlett, president and chief executive of The Financial Services Roundtable. “By clarifying how to treat assets in an uncertain market, the SEC is continuing to provide transparency to investors and helping institutions to provide credit in periods of market stress.”

U.S. accounting rule maker, the Financial Accounting Standards Board said on its Web site on Tuesday that it would change the agenda for its Wednesday meeting to focus on fair value accounting. The board is contemplating issuing additional guidance through a FASB staff position as soon as Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the matter.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The question is not if an invasion of Pakistan is going to happen, but when.

If the attack comes before the upcoming election, the results may well depend on polls as well as tactical factors.

“Jonathan Landay, who spent two years in the region this year, called the situation in Pakistan more serious than that in Iran. He called the Iranian government responsible and its policies logical. Iran may be pursuing nuclear weapons, he added, but Pakistan is already a nuclear state and if it unravelled, it would pose a grave danger to regional and global security.”

Continuing US losses will lead to military strikes on Pakistan
Khalid Hasan
Daily Times
September 30, 2008

WASHINGTON: If the United States forces in Afghanistan continue to suffer casualties inflicted by insurgents crossing over from Pakistan, the next administration, whether Republican or Democratic, will come under tremendous public pressure to make direct strikes on Pakistani targets, according to three South Asia experts.

The observation came at a meeting organised by Khawaja M Ashraf, president of the Pakistani-American Congress, here on Sunday. The three experts who spoke on the prevailing situation in the region were, Walter Andersen of the Johns Hopkins University, Rodney Jones, who runs a local consultancy, and Jonathan Landay of McClatchy Newspapers, who has extensive experience of travelling in and writing about the region.

Andersen said the cross-border movement of insurgents from Pakistan into Afghanistan was a major US concern. As more US troops make their way into Afghanistan from next year, there will be in increase in attacks on them from the insurgents, prompting sharp public reaction in America for strong retaliatory action. The new American policy was no longer going to be confined to hot pursuit but when so warranted, direct military strikes inside the areas from where the attacks were seen to have originated or mounted.

He warned that any US president would come under enormous pressure if US troops continued to be killed by Pakistan-based insurgents and regardless of what party he belonged to, he would order strikes at Pakistan. Andersen added that there cannot be a military solution of the Afghanistan situation in the long term, while proposing a joint US-Pakistan policy to deal with the situation. More importantly, Afghanistan and Pakistan need to build a strong and co-operative relationship to meet the challenge posed by extremism. However, given the level of distrust that has marked their relationship, the new government in Pakistan will have to be willing to consider new policy options. He said India too will have to be taken on board because terrorism is affecting the entire region and requires the adoption of a regional approach.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now think Pakistan and a National Emergency declaration.

Nuclear Terrorism Is World’s No. 1 Threat, UN’s ElBaradei Says
2008-09-30 10:36:38.400 GMT
By Jonathan Tirone

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — The likelihood that terrorists will detonate a nuclear weapon poses the greatest risk to world security, surpassing proliferation threats from Iran and North Korea, United Nations atomic chief Mohamed ElBaradei said.

“There is a lot of interest on the part of extremist groups to obtain nuclear material,” ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said at a scientific forum today in Vienna. “It’s the No. 1 security threat right now.”

The IAEA, established in 1956 under the slogan “Atoms for Peace,” said it’s becoming easier for groups and countries to access nuclear secrets because detailed bomb-making plans have been circulated electronically.

“The recipe of how to weaponize is in electronic form and out of the tube,” ElBaradei said. “We are on a crash course if we don’t change course.”


Posted at 2:17 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


I go away on vacation for about 2 weeks and mayhem ensues. I knew my bank would go under, but not this fast (I work there, but no account). I just want to point out that YOU WERE RIGHT! If your readers who have not acted don’t listen now, that is all in their hands. I was prepared thanks to you, and want to thank you.

Best Regards,

“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It is simply too painful to acknowledge — even to ourselves — that we’ve been so credulous” -Carl Sagan

Dear Jim,

Good news! Ben Stein and the New York Times finally caught on to what you’ve been saying for 8 years.

In Financial Food Chains, Little Guys Can’t Win

IMAGINE, if you will, that a man who had much to do with creating the present credit crisis now says he is the man to fix this giant problem, and that his work is so important that he will need a trillion dollars or so of your money. Then add that this man thinks he is so indispensable that he wants Congress to forbid any judicial or administrative questioning of anything he does with your dollars.

You might think of a latter-day Lenin or Fidel Castro, but you would be far afield. Instead, you should be thinking of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and the rapidly disintegrating United States of America, right here and now.


There is a problem, though. With specific reference to the potential for credit default swaps to cause an international financial collapse, he claims, “Almost no one (except Mr. Buffet) saw this coming, at least not on this scale.” Such ingratitude!

Respectfully yours,
CIGA Richard B.

Dear Jim,


Central banks and governments are now in a frantic state to save banks and financial entities that are falling like dominos on an hourly basis. It is almost impossible to keep up with all the businesses that have collapsed worldwide only in the last week. The authorities around the world have no choice. They will print any amount of money to save whoever needs to be saved. Also the whole world is waiting for the US rescue package of $ 700 billion to be passed. This might help for a few days or weeks but not much longer


The authorities are throwing pennies at a multi trillion or quadrillion dollar problem.

The amounts of money that needs to be printed to bail out the system is so large that it would dwarf what happened in the Weimar Republic in the 1920’s.


Let us put the latest US rescue package of $ 700 billion in proportion:

  • Only last week $ 1 trillion of liquidity was injected into the US financial system. Thus in one week more money was injected than the proposed rescue. US and other central banks are injecting at least hundreds of billions of dollars every week and the bank system is still totally paralyzed. LIBOR (inter-bank) rates are at record highs and banks refuse to lend to each other.
  • Banks have loan books in the dollar trillions against assets which are falling precipitously in value. The banks, with the help of central banks, have in the last decade flooded the market with easy credit that have inflated all asset values to totally unsustainable levels. This bubble is now bursting and the banks will over the next year or two sit on virtually worthless and unrealizable collateral with $ trillions in losses.
  • The crisis is currently focusing on the financial system but soon “Main-Street” (consumers) will be an additional massive problem. Personal loans, credit card loans, car loans etc are at levels which most consumers had problems repaying in good times. The increase in food and energy prices combined with higher mortgage rates and falling unemployment will lead to bank losses of $ hundreds of billions.
  • But all of the above is dwarfed by the derivatives outstanding of $ 1 quadrillion. This figure is so big that it is impossible to fathom. When a financial institution fails it is the gross amount that is due. A major part of these derivatives is worthless although only minimal write-downs have been made. Authorities have allowed the derivatives to be marked to model rather than to market. But at some point in the not too distant future the derivatives bubble is likely to burst. It is doubtful that the governments around the world will have time to print $ 1 quadrillion but even if they did it would obviously be worthless money.


In the last few years no politicians, central bankers, bankers or other so called experts have warned the public of the disastrous consequences of the credit and asset bubbles that have been taking place. On the contrary everybody has embraced the Goldilocks scenario.
It is the same situation today. Virtually nobody will tell you the real problem and the real risks. We urge you not to trust anybody. Everybody you talk to has a vested interest. Therefore it is essential to make up your own mind (which is difficult with so much contradictory advice) and to decide based on all the facts how to protect yourself.

We advised our clients back in 2002 to put a major part of their capital into physical gold stored outside the banking system. Gold has doubled or tripled since then depending on your base currency. Our view is that the real move in precious metals is still to come and that it will start this autumn. For any cash above the government guaranteed levels we recommend short dated government securities preferably in Swiss Francs.

1 October 2008


In case you missed this!

‘Unseen’ and ‘unprecedented’ demand for bullion by rich
Wealthy Investors Hoard Bullion
By Javier Blas
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, September 30, 2008

KYOTO, Japan — Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” physical amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen.

Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich.

“There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.”

The move comes as fears grow among investors over the losses at investment vehicles previously considered almost risk-free, such as money funds.

Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said.


CIGA Babtkis

Posted at 9:48 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Please stop being spectators and put an end to financial fabrication!

Get involved in the Wall Street Bailout Bill.

If this bill is passed financial institutions will be freed from fair accounting rules that require them to reveal the true market value of the value-less paper they hold. That would allow them to continue lying about their solvency.

You simply must not let that happen. It legislates financial fabrication!

This is the first time in my 67 years that legislators are listening to the public, so please tell them what you want on this bill, whether it be yes or no, but do not support lying as an economic tool.

Have we not already had ENOUGH of fabricated, spun, mistruths?

Vote No against a change in Fair Accounting Rules. Vote any way you wish on the rest of this meaningless exercise.

The following is a contact list of Republicans who voted for the Bailout. Contact them and voice your opinions!

Bachus, Spencer
Bonner, Jo
Everett, Terry
Rogers, Mike

Boozman, John

Bono, Mary
Calvert, Ken
Campbell, John (surprised!)
Dreier, David
Herger, Wally
Lungren, Dan
McCarthy, N.
McKeon, Buck
Miller, Gary
Radanovich, George

Tancredo, Tom

Shays, Chris

Castle, Mike

Putnam, Adam
Weldon, Dave

Simpson, Mike

Kirk, Mark
LaHood, Ray
Weller, Jerry (Did Not Vote)

Souder, Mark

Lewis, John

McCrery, Jim

Gilchrest, Wayne

Ehlers, Vern
Upton, Fred


Pickering, Chip

Blunt, Roy
Emerson, Jo Ann

Porter, Jon


Wilson, Heather

Fossella, Vito
King, Peter
Reynolds, Tom
Walsh, Jim

Boehner, John
Hobson, Dave
Pryce, Deborah
Regula, Ralph

Cole, Tom

Walden, Greg


Brown, Henry
Inglis, Bob
Wilson, Clyde

Kirk, Mark
LaHood, Ray

Brady, Kevin

Cannon, Chris

Cantor, Eric
Davis, Tom
Wolf, Frank

Ryan, Paul

Cubin, Barbara