Posted at 9:26 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Credit is a double-edged sword!

Mapped: The Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks
July 19, 2019

By Jeff Desjardins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted at 1:02 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Below is their quote, not mine.

“The global central bank experiment with renormalization is officially over”  

For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking
July 26, 2019

The global central bank experiment with renormalization is officially over.

After roughly half the world’s central banks hiked rates at least once in 2018, the major central banks have returned to easing mode, and as the chart below shows, for the first time since 2013, not a single central bank is hiking rates.

Commenting on the violent reversal away from tightening financial conditions which emerged following the Q4 2018 selloff, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes that “The FOMC looks set to cut the funds rate next week, the ECB today sent a strong signal that action in September is likely, and China has resumed easing policy after a spring pause. With global growth running at a below-trend rate of 2¾%—down from about 4% a year ago—a synchronized tilt towards easing looks like a natural response to a weaker outlook.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

What could possibly go wrong?

The Companies With The Most Debt In America
July 26, 2019

by Wolf Richter 

The concentration of corporate debt: The top 46.

The US Justice Department today approved the merger of T-Mobile, the third largest wireless carrier and Sprint Corp., the fourth largest wireless carrier. For the merger to go forward, they will have to sell Sprint’s prepaid brands to Dish. As for the rest, whatever this does to competition and rates for wireless services, one thing is for sure: It creates another US debt monster.

T-Mobile has $37.4 billion in short-term and long-term debt; Sprint has $39.8 billion. Combined they will have $77.2 billion in debt.

This includes only debt, not other liabilities, such as accounts payable, income tax payable, accrued payroll, or the catch-all “other liabilities.” Short-term debt is due within one year and includes long-term debt that matures within one year; long-term debt is due in over one year. “Capitalized leases” – this is a big item with Amazon – are long-term debt.

After the merger, the combined T-Mobile and Sprint, with $77 billion in debts, would move up to the 9th most indebted company in the US, just ahead of Walmart and behind CVS.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Some believe the flash crash in cryptos today is because of the Libra white papers release, maybe not.  When I saw this headline I immediately thought uh oh!

IRS Sends 1000s Of “Fishing” Letters To Crypto Users
July 26, 2019

Authored by Marie Huillet via CoinTelegraph.com,

The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is sending letters to crypto investors to apparently scare them into accurately reporting their crypto-related income.  

“Taxpayers should take these letters very seriously by reviewing their tax filings and when appropriate, amend past returns and pay back taxes, interest and penalties,” IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a statement.

“The IRS is expanding our efforts involving virtual currency, including increased use of data analytics. We are focused on enforcing the law and helping taxpayers fully understand and meet their obligations.”

‘Don’t Panic’

According to a Forbes report by crypto tax attorney Tyson Cross, published on July 26, a number of Cross’s clients have received a letter “6174-A” from the IRS, threatening “future civil and criminal enforcement activity” if they fail to fully comply with reporting requirements.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Well, well, well…”truth” raring its ugly head?

New York Area Fire Commissioners Make History, Call for New 9/11 Investigation
July 27, 2019

Ted Walter

They started off by saying the Pledge of Allegiance. Ten minutes later, they were reading the text of a resolution claiming the existence of “overwhelming evidence” that “pre-planted explosives . . . caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings.”

And so it was, on July 24, 2019 — nearly 18 years after the horrific attacks that traumatized a nation and changed the world forever — the Franklin Square and Munson Fire District, which oversees a volunteer fire department serving a hamlet of 30,000 residents just outside of Queens, New York, became the first legislative body in the country to officially support a new investigation into the events of 9/11.

The resolution, drafted and introduced by Commissioner Christopher Gioia, was unanimously approved by the five commissioners. Members of the audience — including the families of fallen firefighters Thomas J. Hetzel and Robert Evans, both Franklin Square natives — joined in solemn but celebratory applause after the fifth “ay” was spoken.

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Posted at 10:51 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Is It Possible The CFTC Is Under Investigation?
July 26, 2019

Happy Friday Morning Folks,   

      Gold got Comex Paper thrown at it yesterday but has fully regained its strength and has turned to the positive with December Gold’s trade at $1,433.00 up $5.50, close to the high at $1,433.60 with the low at $1,426.40. As a side note, commodity trading requires following the highest open interest when quoting a price because that specific month is where all the trades focus. September Silver (still has the highest OI) is trading at $16.52, up 10.9 cents and has fully regained all of yesterday’s attempt to weaken the value with the high at $16.53 and the low at $16.355. The US Dollar’s value now stands at 97.65, gaining 9.8 points as the entire week proved the Dollar had gained in value with today’s high at 97.68 and the low at 97.505. All this was done somewhere around the 5 am pst mark, before the Comex open, and the London close.    

      Our emerging markets overview is still showing pressure on the metals with Venezuela’s price for Gold now standing at 14,312.09, regaining 20.98 in Bolivar value with Silver now at 164.994 down another 1.049 Bolivar so far today. In Argentina, Gold is pegged at 62,099.77 showing a gain of 817.95 Pesos with Silver at 715.893 giving us a gain of .823 in A-Peso value. Over in Turkey, the Lira has Gold priced at 8,074.77 still losing 64.02 in value with Silver at 93.0770 it too losing 1.4587 of T-Lira value. It must be remembered that the Gold prices posted here in the emerging markets currencies, do not have the carry trade costs added like it is in the December Comex price. In short, the loses would be deeper than posted. But that will correct as we move forward in time.

       July Silvers delivery period is just about over. The demands for physical now stand at 77 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts, giving us a drop in count of 36 contracts, either getting their physicals here, or getting the paper transferred over to London. So far this morning there is no Volume posted and we have no trading range to deal with either. What we do have from yesterday is a Volume of 64 at the same time only 36 contracts got receipts giving us the “possibility” the Resolute Buyer(s) is/are still sucking up the physicals by adding contracts on top of their already existing orders. Silvers overall Open Interest now stands at 235,155 Obligations showing a 1,350 count loss as the shorts dipped the price in order to weaken their obligations on options expiration day that only took out 1,300+ Call options in Silver but had to deliver upon even more deeper in the money Calls. Of note, the last trading day for July is Monday then we start to focus on August’s deliveries with its count now at 1,146.   

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A little bit of very real history, I remember it well! My question, is past prologue and what will it look like when the jig is up and COMEX finally irrelevant? Mad Max comes to mind because confidence in ALL markets will be broken…

Silver Manipulation Confirmed: 2008 Price Plunge From $21 to $9 Explained
July 25, 2019

By Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics

Over the past few years there’s been rampant speculation as to whether the silver market is manipulated. Finally, I believe it’s safe to say that we can remove all doubt.

Because in the process of recording a series of interviews with the world’s top silver experts for an upcoming book called “The Big Silver Short”, some rather stunning verification of the manipulation has been uncovered.

As well as evidence that the manipulation has most certainly affected the price.

Where To Begin…

In particular, an interview I did with former CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton (who oversaw the agency’s investigation into the silver market) confirmed much of what has long been alleged.

Where he stated with incredible clarity that the silver market has indeed been manipulated. While also sharing details about what actually happened during the time of the collapse of Bear Stearns, and in the months after.

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Posted at 6:57 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Yes Wolfgang, as we have said all along…it is all about credit!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

My stomach turns when I see this.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

“Credit Card Splurge” Suggests Imminent Storm
July 25, 2019

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

You’d think that the drop in yields and a Fed about to cut rates would’ve brought about some relief to credit card bills. No Sir.

And you might think that the highest interest rates on credit cards ever would deter consumers from loading up on additional credit card debt. Oh no.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pedal to the metal and the cumulative picture spells trouble.

Look at the data.

Here are credit card interest rates versus the Fed Funds rate:

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Jim/Bill,

If anyone believes this, I’ve got a bridge to sell them.

 

 

 

 

 

A significantly higher dollar, climbing every day, will cut the legs out from whatever profitability corporations still have.

-International firms lose big time with the repatriation of profits.

-On the domestic front, a high Dollar means foreign companies drop prices and kill our hometown corporate margins.

No way Kudlow can let the Dollar climb indefinitely.

Trump won’t allow it.

Of course, gold doesn’t give a hoot.  It still keeps climbing in the face of a stronger Dollar

It sees the light in what’s coming.

Dwindling economic activity, eventually requiring massive intervention.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Dollar Surges After Kudlow Says White House “Ruled Out Any Currency Intervention”
July 26, 2019

Update: Politico reports that Trump rejected Navarro’s options for devaluing the dollar, with CNBC’s Kayla Tausche reporting that Trump convened a cabinet-level trade meeting on Tuesday to discuss ideas to weaken dollar – including capital controls and active “jawboning” by officials on TV – however, the meeting broke with a decision not to intervene, and Navarro “didn’t get through 10% of his presentation,” per one official. But, as Tausche adds, “anti-interventionists worry they can’t keep Navarro and Pres. Trump at bay.”

* * *

In the past month there has been extensive speculation whether the Trump admin, as part of its desire to devalue the dollar against other currencies whose central banks are engaging in aggressive devaluation campaigns of their own, would pursue currency intervention as first Bank of America suggested last month, only to be followed by virtually every other research analyst, and culminating with a take from Standar Chartered’s Steven Englander who said that “The US Can Intervene To Weaken The Dollar… But What Would It Buy?”

To be sure there was ample reason for such speculation, not the least as a result of Trump’s own July 3 tweet in which he said that “China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system in order to compete with USA. We should MATCH…”

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Posted at 8:31 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Yesterday Was A Bad Day For Swamp Critters But Not For Silver And Gold
July 25, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,    

      It may be a bad day for all swamp critters but not for Gold with the trade now at $1,430.90, up $7.30 and close to the high at $1,433.50 with the low at $1,421.80. Silver, The Drag A Long Kid, is flat at $16.625, down 1/10th of a penny after taking a hit down to $16.46 with the high close by at $16.655. The US Dollar is still holding its value, even after the Mueller Hearing with the trade at 97.345, down 11.7 points with the low at 97.29 and the high at 97.525. All this was done sometime before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      Our Emerging Markets Currency watch has a mixed bag of gains and loses all over the board today. The Venezuelan Bolivar has Gold priced at 14,291.11, down by 41.94 Bolivar in the overnight with Silver now pegged at 166.042, adding .549 Bolivar. In Argentina, Gold is priced at 61,281.82 proving a gain of 91.0 in A-Peso value with Silver at 712.070, a gain of 59.37 A-Pesos. Over in the land of Turkey, Gold lost 30.22 Lira’s with the price at 8,138.79, Silver’s trade is at 94.5357 proving a loss of .3052 in T-Lira value.     

      July Silver’s Delivery Demands now show 113 requests for physical and with a volume of 10 up on the board so far this morning and yet, we still do not have a trading range to offer up but those bracketed numbers are still jiving the trade. The closing price for the delivery month remains at $16.554 so far, proving it gained 14.9 cents during yesterday’s trade. As a reminder, this used to be called the cash price, not Kitco’s, we still consider the Comex delivery price the real cash market. The July physical demand count lost 43 requests, either getting their physicals here or having their paper transferred over to the trusting City of London (cough). Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to climb as the Financial Swamp Critters carry on convincing themselves they still have control with the Overall Count now at 236,505 Overnighters proving 1,530 additional shorts had to be applied in order to stay the price. The big contender in all of this is still those Resolute Long’s. They seem to be the ones with the deep pockets and the need for physical. Could it be a few manufacturers?    

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Posted at 8:28 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Very disconcerting!

Graham Summers gives a heads up.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Is This the Reason the Fed is Freaking Out?
July 24, 2019

Posted in Central Bank Insanity By The Phoenix On July 24, 2019

Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.

Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.

Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.

This is happening at a time when economic data is rebounding, unemployment is below 4% and GDP growth is north of 3%.

So what exactly is going on? What does the Fed know that has it so terrified, because it’s obviously not the US economy.

1)   Deutsche Bank (DB) is imploding.

Sitting atop over $49 trillion in OCT derivatives, DB is like Lehman Brothers 2.0. And despite the best efforts of management and the authorities, the bank is imploding. DB shares were rejected by resistance last week, ending the “hope bounce” from recent moves to curtail the blow up.

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 Jim/Bill,

The public is being duped and nobody is even trying to hide it!

Read this…CAREFULLY:

“After May’s unexpected plunge, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound modestly but instead, thanks to huge downward revision, Dur Goods surged 2.0% MoM… but at the weakest in 3 years on a YoY basis”

Note that Durable Goods surged ONLY because May orders had a huge downward revision!

Are the markets THAT stupid to react to this crap?

Gold drops $10 immediately on this news, despite a weaker DXY.

If people are smart, they’ll take this opportunity purchase gold…on sale.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Durable Goods Tumble Year-Over-Year Despite June Rebound
July 25, 2019

After May’s unexpected plunge, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound modestly but instead, thanks to huge downward revision, Dur Goods surged 2.0% MoM… but at the weakest in 3 years on a YoY basis

This is the biggest MoM jump since Aug 2018…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The noisy aircraft orders segment continue to oscillate, affected by Boeing also.

Nondefense aircraft new orders +75.5%

Defense aircraft new orders -32.1%

But we note that year-over-year, Dur Goods Orders (NSA) are down 4.5% – the weakest in 3 years…

More…

Posted at 10:40 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Ag/Au, When The Dollar Drops, Watch Out Above!
July 24, 2019
Great and Wonderful Early Wednesday Morning Folks,

Gold continues upward with that “in your face look” proving the trade gained $5.20 of value with the price at $1,426.70, after starting off lower at $1,416.70 with the high nearby at $1,427.40. Silver is following along (for now) with the trade at $16.57 up 9.4 cents close to the high at $16.595 with the low at $16.35. The US Dollar is still holding onto its value with the price at 97.335, down 8.3 points with the high at 97.57 and the low close by at 97.28. All this was done around 4:30 am pst, before the Comex open, and the London close. All done earlier than normal because I want to watch the entire Mueller hearing.

In the Emerging Markets Currency watch we see gains in both metals across the entire board. Venezuela’s Bolivar now has Gold priced at 14,249.17, regaining more than yesterday’s loss with Silver now at 165.493, adding an additional 1.249 Bolivar to its price. In Argentina, Gold has a value of 60,371.82 proving a gain of 413.75 Pesos with Silver jumping 8.771 A-Pesos with its price at 706.133. Over in the land of Turkey, Gold is priced under the Lira at 8,169.01 giving the Nobel metal a 70.18 T-Lira jump in value with Silver now pegged at 94.8409 Lira proving a gain of 1.3068 in value.

July Silver’s delivery demands are now showing 156 fully paid for requests for physical and with a Volume of 8 up on the board so far this morning with a trading range to report between $16.31 and $16.30. This proves a drop in OI of 243 obligations either delivered here or transferred over to the City of London (or?). Yesterday, I had forgotten to give the price gain in July Silver after I wrote about the $16.29 and $16.295 trading range for Monday’s trade. The closing price for the delivered product was $16.34 on Monday’s close. No trades are registered at this price but that is what they closed it at. Yesterday’s closing price for July Silver was $16.405 although there were no registered (prices or) trades in the delivered month but we did see a Volume of 72 (still trying to figure that one out). All the Open Interest in Silver is now at 234,975 Papered Obligations giving us a proven gain of 1,783 more contracts added to the mix in order to keep Silver in place. With all these pieces of paper being added to the fray, one has to wonder how much higher Silver would be if the US Dollar wasn’t so strong?

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Posted at 10:33 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

The fed keeps telling us all is great.

With this morning’s headlines….

Do you feel secure?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

New Home Sales Miss As Mortgage Rate Collapse Fails To Bring Buyers Back

New Home Sales were 646k SAAR in June – missing expectations of 658k – May new-home sales were revised down to 604,000 from 626,000; March and April purchases were also revised lower.

  • JUL 24, 2019 10:07 AM

US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To 10-Year Low

“Manufacturers are shedding workers at the fastest rate since 2009and service sector job creation is now down to its lowest since April 2017”

  • JUL 24, 2019 9:52 AM

Trade War Chaos: Trump’s Tariffs Crash American RV Industry 

“This is the worse I’ve seen it,”  …RV shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions…

  • JUL 24, 2019 9:21 AM

“Cracks Are Showing”: CAT Shares Slump On Lower Earnings Guidance, Retail Sales Miss

It’s the latest sign that the blowback from the trade war might be worse than expected….

  • JUL 24, 2019 8:00 AM

Boeing Q2 Revenue Plunges, Missing By $5BN, Resulting In Shocking $1BN Cash Burn

Just like Deutsche Bank, Boeing decided that Q2 will be its kitchen sink quarter. Will it be enough?

  • JUL 24, 2019 7:58 AM

Global Stocks Slump As German Manufacturing Craters, Tech Spooked By DOJ Probe

German manufacturing slumps deeper into a recession even as global stocks continue to trade just shy of all time highs.

  • JUL 24, 2019 7:32 AM

Deutsche Bank Tumbles As Trading Revenues Plummet

“These results do little to allay market concerns on the ability to deliver on those targets”

  • JUL 24, 2019 6:57 AM