Posted at 4:36 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,


A few weeks ago many thought I was out of my mind.  I had the temerity to state that I thought that we were going into a depression, not a recession, and that the economic decline would last for two to three years.  Now, it looks like a few others are coming around to my view.  The chairman of Goldman Sachs recently said we are facing a banking crisis worse than the Great Depression.  The former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange said it is comparable to the Great Depression.

More and more are willing to admit the magnitude of the problem.  We continue to see a few Pollyanna types who want to see everything as sunny.  For them, we have the following outlook.  In our opinion, things will get sunny and big buying opportunities will periodically develop, but they will be interspersed with big declines, and a lot of hand wringing.


Unfortunately, we do not believe that this is not the end of the derivative problem.  A bigger problem looms on the horizon.  Derivatives are still being created everyday.  Often, they are created by people who are just as greedy and self deluded, as those who created the mountain of mortgage derivatives that have brought the system to its knees.  If the current unexploded mountain of derivatives were to implode, (as those derivatives connected to mortgage bonds did) the crisis could become much worse.


Derivatives and bonds connected to mortgage assets have collapsed, bringing the world banking system to its knees.  Many other types of derivatives have not imploded, but may do so.

In the case of mortgage bond derivatives, they exacerbated an already serious collapsing mortgage bubble.  The mortgage derivatives caused the destruction of the PACKAGERS OF MORTGAGE DERIVATIVES, also known as INVESTMENT BANKS, who drank the poisoned wine along with their clients.

In one year, the entire industry of large investment banks dissolved.  They failed and/or were forced to become bank holding companies.  This is the most astounding effect imaginable.  It happened because the investment banks, believed the absurd valuations that they and rating agencies, had given to toxic assets (mortgage derivatives) which they held.

Eventually, some investors started to listen to analysts like Jim Sinclair, myself and others.   A few investors began to grasp the absurdity of the mortgage derivative valuations, and the extent of the self delusion that investment banks and their clients were living under.


This new problem stems from bonds (and derivatives on bonds) connected to consumer loans.  Just as they did with mortgages, investment banks packaged pools of AUTO LOANS, CREDIT CARD DEBT, and STUDENT LOANS into derivatives.  In our opinion, these too will eventually implode when the weak economy causes many borrowers to default on their loans.  It is no mystery why Secretary Paulson yesterday announced, that he wanted to help consumer finance companies.  The obvious reason is that bad debts on auto loans, credit cards, etc., are the next bond and derivative bomb waiting to explode.


A third type of derivative is based on commodities and stocks, and speculation in commodities and stocks.  These are known as options and futures on stocks and commodities.  In many cases they are transparent and the underlying assets are liquid.


The rating agencies are another immense scandal.  They operate in a field filled with conflicts of interest.  We predict that they will be dismantled, sued, and may be hounded out of existence.


The U.S. stock market peaked in October 1929 at about 381 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  It bottomed 2 years and 9 months later in July 1932, at about 41…a decline of almost 90%. 

Then a rally began.  Over the next four years, the Dow went up over 300%.  In our opinion, we should be looking for a big long term bottom sometime in the next year.  From that bottom, we believe that the market could rally for prolonged period and rise substantially.


In our opinion, during the correction phases, and when the market gets cheap over the next year or more, investors should search for value globally, and buy: growth stocks in several countries, gold shares, undervalued currencies, and commodities.


Thanks for listening.
Monty Guild and Tony Danaher

Posted at 3:22 PM (CST) by & filed under Uncategorized.


The graphical representation of the Formula illustrates an accelerating down trend. Yet despite this fact gold investors, possibly CIGAs, continue to display fear and lack of conviction. It is this fear and disorganization that allows bullion banks to pick our pockets regardless of the fundamentals. Anger turned inward makes for easy prey. Anger turned outward creates formidable opposition.

You two are the conduit for turning that anger outward. I just handle the Z scores.

Have a nice evening,

Click charts to enlarge in PDF format



Dear Mr. Sinclair,

Is this at all possible? Could you comment please?

Thank you,

The G-20’s Secret Debt Solution
by Larry Edelson   11-13-08

If you think this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Washington are only about designing short-term fixes to the financial system and regulatory reforms for banks, hedge funds, brokers, mortgage companies and investment banks … think again.

Behind the scenes, a far more fundamental fix is being discussed — the possible revaluation of gold and the birth of an entirely new monetary system.

I’ve been studying this issue in great depth, all my life. And given the speed at which the financial crisis is unfolding, I would be very surprised if what I’m about to tell you now is not on the G-20 table this weekend.

Furthermore, I believe the end result will make my $2,270 price target for gold look conservative, to say the least. You’ll see why in a minute.

First, the G-20’s motive for a new monetary system: It’s driven by and based upon this very simple proposition …

“If we can’t print money fast enough to fend off another deflationary Great Depression, then let’s change the value of the money.”


Dear CIGA N,

Maybe not in this form, but at some time this will happen. Gold will basically be a control factor. That is a form of FRGCR.

I rather doubt that the G20 will do much other than yell and scream at each other for more Quantitative Easing from Washington in their area of economic concern.

I have learned never to say never with respect to other’s opinions.

I doubt it, now.


Posted at 1:53 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

A note to our Russian Readers:

You have an exceptional opportunity to stop the decline in the value of the Ruble and elevate it to a reserve currency through the following conversion opportunities:

1.Partial convertibility in gold at $1035.
2.Partial convertibility in crude oil at $147 per barrel.
3.Partial convertibility into a basket of crude and gold.
4.A full convertibility of the above.
5.A form of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio that I have written about many times.
6.Same as above with all new sovereign bond issues.

All of this is much more effective than the failed attempts to stabilize.

When a currency has a convertibility aspect to it, conversion almost never occurs.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This scholarly missive written by a fellow who truly understands speaking the language of the initiated presents the non conversion of Monetary Base into M2.

That may be another reason that the US Treasury and the Fed have moved to QS. If QS in fact does pump money directly to those most apt to spend it, converting Monetary Base into M2 and accelerating it, then watch inflation roar as business decelerates to the downside to some degree. Of course there will be things like putting GE’s financing under a FDIC guarantee. Does anyone put their funds into the GE Bank & Trust? There isn’t one so what is the FDIC doing guaranteeing debt with its quickly deteriorating balance sheet and for how much is the guarantee per $1000 bond? I suspect they are 100% guaranteed.

Don’t forget one of the tools of attempted repair inthe1930s was an increase in the price of gold to offset the deflationary thinking and create more money for stimulation methods that unfortunately failed.

QS might work to some degree and that may be why US equities did a key reversal today.

Technical Factors

Perhaps the most important driver of the US dollars recent appreciation is not a fundamental but a technical factor. The meltdown of prices in the commodity complex, particularly energy, has generated a very strong impulse for US dollar strength. Whilst many commodity end-users were outright cash buyers, other buyers that were investing or speculating in commodities as a newfound asset class over the past five years would typically fund their position with US dollar-denominated credit, in effect, creating a US dollar short position. Now that these commodity carry trades are being unwound, it exacerbates commodity weakness and contributes to US dollar strength. In addition, US investments in foreign markets, particularly equities, were primarily un-hedged and large amounts of those monies are now being repatriated which holds similar bullish US dollar effects.

Dollar Strength Sustainability
How sustainable are these four fundamental and technical factors in underpinning US dollar strength?

The trade and current account deficits should continue to narrow for several more months or perhaps quarters. As the US economy falls deeper into recession, imports should begin to decline more precipitously due to declining volume. This collapse along with rising export receipts will narrow the trade deficit and continue to lend support to the US dollar.

Despite the US dollar supportive narrowing of the trade and current account deficit, the pace of improvement may begin to slow for several reasons. First, once the prices of energy and other commodities stabilize, trends in import prices will no longer help lower overall import expenditures. Furthermore, stabilized import prices will also stop contributing to improved terms-of-trade. Second, it seems that a synchronized global recession is on the horizon. If so, then exports will once again decelerate despite US dollar competitiveness. As the growth of economies representing our important export markets slows or even falls into recession, weaker export growth will result. The combined effect of these counter-veiling trends is that the incipient narrowing of the US trade deficit may be short lived.

Perhaps the key factor will be the length of the time it takes for global de-leveraging to run its course. No one knows precisely how long it will take for investors and speculators to unwind US dollar-denominated commodity and other carry trades. It could be one month or half a year. However, once complete, the strongest driver for recent US dollar strength de-leveraging — will dissipate. At that juncture, FX traders and investors will once again re-focus their attention on the supply of US dollars being pumped into the US economy and on the global system and investors willingness to hold additional Greenbacks in their portfolio.

The weight of US dollar supply
It is beyond the scope of this paper to itemize the growing cumulative costs of the various aspects of the bailout. Suffice to say that the supply of US dollars is dramatically growing and measured in the trillions. To best measure this aggregate growth, lets look at the growth of the Feds balance sheet and the monetary base.

After remaining relatively stable for more than a year through August 2008 at around $825 billion, the monetary base has exponentially exploded. BCA has recently highlighted that in the past eight weeks, the monetary base has grown 38% to $1.142 trillion, and shows no signs of slowing down.1 Yet these reserves injected onto the balance sheets of the banks have not been disseminated into the broader economy. This is apparent by the ratio of M2 to base money, which over the same time period since end August, has plummeted from 9.1 to 7.8 (see Charts 1 & 2). This is not surprising since most of the capital injected into banks has been used to repair and shrink the balance sheet (i.e., write-off bad assets) rather than expand it. So fractional bankings normal stimulatory impact through the money multiplier has by-in-large not been activated.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The paper market for gold will NOT be able to hold back this type of demand, but will try as long as their warehouse remains capable of supporting their devious destructive machinations to pick your pocket in order to fill theirs. For your information, my wife and I were members of the Comex.

I respectfully ask you to take delivery of your positions as you can afford to. Why pay wild premiums to buy gold when you can buy a nearby gold future at no premium and take delivery?

Gold rush
Benjamin Scent
Friday, November 14, 2008

The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard.

Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said.

China’s fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year.

The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields.

The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This alone creates at least a very strange situation that the legislative now wants to see. Can you imagine what the Obama Administration will do to get both the Fed and the USA Treasury to come clean?

I would suggest that both the Fed and the Treasury have no hope of hiding the facts in a short period of time.

A word of advice to those presently concerned by the lack of oversight:

The matter might be good to face up to while the Bush Administration can still issue Presidential pardons.

Bailout Lacks Oversight Despite Billions Pledged
Watchdog Panel Is Empty; Report Is Unfinished
By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 13, 2008; A01

In the six weeks since lawmakers approved the Treasury’s massive bailout of financial firms, the government has poured money into the country’s largest banks, recruited smaller banks into the program and repeatedly widened its scope to cover yet other types of businesses, from insurers to consumer lenders.

Along the way, the Bush administration has committed $290 billion of the $700 billion rescue package.

Yet for all this activity, no formal action has been taken to fill the independent oversight posts established by Congress when it approved the bailout to prevent corruption and government waste. Nor has the first monitoring report required by lawmakers been completed, though the initial deadline has passed.

"It’s a mess," said Eric M. Thorson, the Treasury Department’s inspector general, who has been working to oversee the bailout program until the newly created position of special inspector general is filled. "I don’t think anyone understands right now how we’re going to do proper oversight of this thing."


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The French just figured this out. No, it is a statement to the USA to stop trying to run things at this type of gather.

Sarkozy-US dollar no longer only currency in world

11.13.08, 06:49 AM EST

PARIS, Nov 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar can no longer claim to be the only currency in the world, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday ahead of a Washington meeting of G20 leaders to discuss the international financial system.

‘I am leaving tomorrow for Washington to explain that the dollar cannot claim to be the only currency in the world…, that what was true in 1945 can no longer be true today,’ he said at a prizegiving ceremony.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Beggars never stop begging. This is all about OTC derivatives and most certainly not the false flag of mortgages. The OTC derivatives broke them and caused this total disaster rather than a simple recession.

Freddie seeks gov’t aid after $25.3B loss
Friday November 14, 2:38 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer

Freddie Mac seeking $13.8B in government aid after posting 3rd-quarter loss of $25.3 billion

WASHINGTON – Freddie Mac is asking for an initial injection of $13.8 billion in government aid after posting a massive quarterly loss Friday.

The mortgage finance company is making the first request to tap the $200 billion promised by the Treasury Department to keep it and sibling company Fannie Mae afloat after the two were seized by federal regulators in September. Freddie Mac said it expects to receive the money by Nov. 29.

The McLean, Va.-based company posted a loss of $25.3 billion, or $19.44 per share, for the third quarter. The results compare with a loss of $1.2 billion, or $2.07 a share, in the year-ago period.

Analysts were divided about whether Fannie and Freddie’s losses would ultimately exceed the government’s $200 billion pledge. And that may partly depend on the extent to which Fannie and Freddie are used by the government as a tool to ease the foreclosure crisis.


Posted at 1:31 AM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

Linked below is a PDF of the foreign custodial accounts at the New York Fed.

It is difficult to envision a graph which shows a line going more vertical than that of the US Treasury holdings chart. I look at this chart and see my children and grandchildren’s future going up in smoke. If you want to know how the chart of US monetary aggregates has turned exponential since August of this year, look no further than the custodial holdings of Treasuries at the Fed. So far (emphasis on “so far”), they have found buyers for this debt from abroad. How long that will last is anyone’s guess. When I think of the enormity of the bailouts coming our way, I find it difficult to believe that there is going to be sufficient demand from abroad for the massive issuance of debt that will be associated with it. If, or should I say, “when”, the supply of new debt overwhelms foreign demand, heaven help the US Dollar.

Notice that while that particular chart has gone vertical, the agency debt chart (Fannie and Freddie are in this category) has seen foreign central banks dump almost $90 billion of this paper since July of this year. Clearly they want nothing to do with it and are unloading agency debt almost as fast as they are loading up on Treasuries.

Trader Dan


Click here for today’s Custodial Accounts charts from Trader Dan Norcini

Posted at 2:51 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear International Friends of Gold,

If you are tired of being had by paper gold DOING WHAT IT DID TO YOU THIS US MORNING, the following is the only course of action to end the games being played at your expense. Gold you take delivery of can be insured and shipped anywhere on the globe by Brinks and other recognized express services.

Delivery Process for Gold or Silver:

Delivery – Prudential holds the receipt in PFG’s account for customer
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. Receipt is booked to customers account
5. Monthly storage charge passed on to customer’s account(about $50.00).

Physical Delivery – Customer wants bars in their procession
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. We will provide the customer with name and phone number of the 
individual at the depository to contact.
5. Customer makes arrangements for the physical delivery

CIGA JB Slear, who is in the commodity business, offers his services to assist anyone seeking physical delivery of metals. He will guide you through the entire process, including arrangements for delivery.

To be totally clear, I expect JB not to discuss any type of speculation with you but ONLY help you acquire 100 ounce gold bars. Once 21,000 bars have been taken the paper gold’s reign over the price of gold is over.

CIGA JB Slear can be reached at the following:

Fort Wealth Trading Co. LLC
866-443-0868 ext 104

Posted at 11:01 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear Friends,

Pressure is picking up in the demand for the Fed to outline what they have done with the trillions put into play and to disclose what their inventory of "assets" is. It is very bad for the Fed to refuse. Cooperation might actually cause a major embarrassment to the US dollar, and soon.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

If I was anyone involved in these distributions that might have even the smallest possibility of being a crime, I would fess up, get sentenced, and be pardoned by the outgoing Administration. That should be basic logic on the subject of “saving your ass.” “The Democrats are coming, the Democrats are coming – run for your money.” Sorry, I mean life.

Washington’s $5 Trillion Tab
Elizabeth Moyer, 11.12.08, 05:15 PM EST

Fighting the financial crisis has put the U.S. on the hook for some $5 trillion a report says. So far.

For all the fury over Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s $700 billion emergency economic relief fund, it seems downright puny when compared to the running total of the government’s response to the credit crisis.

According to CreditSights, a research firm in New York and London, the U.S. government has put itself on the hook for some $5 trillion, so far, in an attempt to arrest a collapse of the financial system.

The estimate includes many of the various solutions cooked up by Paulson and his counterparts Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve and Sheila Bair at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., as the credit crisis continues to plague banks and the broader markets.

The Fed has taken on much of that total, including lending a cumulative $1 trillion in overnight or short-term loans since March to primary dealers through its emergency discount window and making a cumulative $1.8 trillion available through its term auction facility, a series of short-term transactions it began making available twice a month in January. It should be noted that a portion of the funds lent in these programs has been repaid and that the totals represent what has been made available.