Posted at 3:12 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Thank God for those that stand on the wall while we sleep and who risk their lives in order to protect us. Their only reward is a white star on a black wall with a year as the header but no name. Thank you and rest well.

Two alleged U.S. spies killed in Pakistan`s tribal region
Posted: 2008/11/10

Suspected militants have killed men accused of spying for the United States in Pakistan’s tribal region of North Waziristan, local tribesmen said Saturday.

Two bullet-ridden bodies of Afghan nationals were found at Dargah Mandai area near the border area in North Waziristan on Saturday, they said.

A note in the native Pashto language found near the body of the slain men, said that they were spying for the United States and Afghan government.

The note warned that anyone spying for the U.S. or Afghanistan would face the same situation.

Militants are blamed for attacking people suspected of spying for the U.S. or Pakistani authorities in the region, which borders Afghanistan, and where al Qaeda- and Taliban-linked militants operate.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The complex OTC derivative situation is now becoming something akin to the Japanese sci-fi of the 1970s titled "The Green Blob that Ate the Earth." No wonder her Majesty is inquiring with legal authority. As Queen, she still might have the power to order, "off with their heads!" Since her present wealth is primarily in real estate and that is what she got hit for, is it possible for a Queen to be homeless?

Sweden seizes Carnegie in first bank bail-out
Sweden’s government is to seize control of Carnegie after the 200-year-old investment bank took "exceptional risks" with client money and breached trading rules.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:15PM GMT 10 Nov 2008

Mats Odell, the financial markets minister, said the state had opted to save Carnegie by providing a 5bn Kronor (£450m) state loan rather than let it go bankrupt in order prevent a fire-sale of assets and to shore up the financial system at a delicate moment.

"Carnegie is important: there could be significant problems for households and companies if we jeopardise the stability of the financial system," he said.

It is the first Swedish bank to require a bail-out since the credit crisis began, but there are mounting concerns over the health of Swedbank, SEB, and other lenders with heavy exposure to the Baltic states. Swedish banks have lent the equivalent of 25pc of the country’s GDP to Eastern Europe.

The debt office said it had revoked Carnegie’s trading licence and ousted the entire board,


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is the news that counts. Here is where your focus should be.

The Fed is dragging its feet hard to keep the type and kind of SIVs they have taken as collateral from bankrupt institutions secret. The reason is simple. If they are total junk (and they probably are) the balance sheet of the Fed would be creamed. This would make Treasury instruments anything but totally creditworthy. It would make it much harder to borrow money, would break the 30 year bond and cream the dollar. It is coming one way or another.

U.S. to Borrow Record This Quarter to Finance Deficit
November 03, 2008

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury more than tripled its planned debt sales for this quarter to help finance a 2009 budget deficit that bond dealers advising the department estimate may swell to almost $1 trillion.

Borrowing needs are expected to rise to $550 billion in the three months to Dec. 31, compared with the $142 billion predicted in July, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington. That follows a $530 billion record in the July-September quarter.

The worsening credit crisis and sluggish economy are straining the country’s finances and will leave the winner of tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election facing the worst budget shortfall on record next year. The Treasury is scheduled to announce in two days plans to expand debt sales to fund the gap.

“The U.S. Treasury faces an unprecedented financing need,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Ed McKelvey, echoing a similar comment last week by Anthony Ryan, the Treasury’s acting undersecretary for domestic finance.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Judging from the G-20 meeting, I would assume the new Bretton Woods conference will discuss fiscal stimulation and how to pump more funds into the system.

TABLE-Key facts about G20 members
11.10.08, 10:31 AM ET

Argentina – Nov 10 (Reuters) – Following are some key details about the G20 countries plus Spain, a membership aspirant:


(mln, 2007) ($bln, 2007) ($ bln, latest)

* Argentina: 39.5 262.33 47.1
* Australia: 21.01 821.72 27.6
* Brazil: 191.6 1,314.17 205.1
* Canada: 32.98 1,326.38 41.1
* China: 1,319.98 3,280.05 1,808.8
* France: 61.71 2,562.29 144.8
* Germany: 82.27 3,297.23 153.0
* India: 1,123.32 1,170.97 295.3
* Indonesia: 225.63 432.82 54.5
* Italy: 59.37 2,107.48 104.5
* Japan: 127.77 4,376.70 996.7
* Mexico: 105.28 893.36 77.1
* Russia: 141.64 1,291.01 582.2
* Saudi Arabia 24.20 381.68 34.1
* South Africa 47.59 277.58 243.3
* South Korea 48.53 969.79 240.3
* Spain 44.88 1,429.23 13.8
* Turkey 73.89 657.09 79.1
* United Kingdom 61.03 2,727.81 72.1
* United States 301.62 13,811.20 72.5


Posted at 1:48 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is madness unless you want a planetary Weimar with the only difference being whose currency hits the deck first. Fellows, it is not bad business causing derivatives problems. It is bad derivatives extending a normal business contraction into an unprecedented disaster. Aim at the cause, not at the symptoms.

G-20 Says Its Ready to Urgently Boost Growth, Stimulus Needed
By Ben Sills and Shamim Adam

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — The Group of 20 nations is prepared to act “urgently” to bolster growth and called on governments to cut interest rates and raise spending as the world’s leading industrialized economies battle the threat of a recession.

“We stand ready to urgently take forward work and actions agreed by our leaders to restore and maintain financial stability and support global growth,” the group said in a statement released yesterday following a meeting in Sao Paulo. “Countries must use all their policy flexibility, consistent with their circumstances, to support sustainable growth.”

Those measures include “monetary and fiscal policy,” it said.

China, the world’s largest developing economy, announced an economic stimulus package worth almost a fifth of its output to sustain domestic demand as the credit crunch drags down growth from New York to Tokyo. Officials in the U.S. and Europe already have slashed borrowing costs and boosted spending in a bid to contain the effects of the slump.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I never thought I would ever see this.

If Bloomberg is successful, you will not be able to believe how the US Federal Reserve has sold the US citizens straight down the pooper.

Bloomberg Sues Fed to Force Disclosure of Collateral (Update1)
By Mark Pittman

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg News asked a U.S. court today to force the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting on behalf of American taxpayers as collateral for $1.5 trillion of loans to banks.

The lawsuit is based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn’t seek money damages.

“The American taxpayer is entitled to know the risks, costs and methodology associated with the unprecedented government bailout of the U.S. financial industry,” said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, a unit of New York-based Bloomberg LP, in an e-mail.

The Fed has lent $1.5 trillion to banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., through programs such as its discount window, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event that a loan payment isn’t made.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

25 billion will do nothing to keep automakers making autos that they cannot sell. 25 today, 50 tomorrow and 100 next week.

Emanuel Says Auto Industry Essential to U.S. Economy (Update1)
By Todd Shields

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) — Rahm Emanuel, President-elect Barack Obama’s chief of staff, called the auto industry an “essential” part of U.S. manufacturing, while stopping short of endorsing a proposal to use some of the $700 billion financial-rescue fund to aid automakers.

“The auto industry is an essential part of our economy,” Emanuel said on ABC’s “This Week.” Lawmakers should speed up the availability of $25 billion in government loans for the development of fuel-efficient cars, he said.

In addition, there are “other authorities” the administration can use immediately and Obama “has asked his economic team to look at different options of what it takes to help bridge the auto industry so they are a part of not only a revived economy, but part of an energy policy going forward.”

Emanuel didn’t directly respond to whether Obama endorses a proposal by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to use some of the $700 billion approved to stabilize the financial services industry to aid automakers.



Posted at 1:38 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends, 

The following article is a Carolina Journal exclusive:

Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts
Democratic leaders in the U.S. House discuss confiscating 401(k)s, IRAs
By Karen McMahan
November 04, 2008 

RALEIGH – Democrats in the U.S. House have been conducting hearings on proposals to confiscate workers’ personal retirement accounts – including 401(k)s and IRAs – and convert them to accounts managed by the Social Security Administration.

Triggered by the financial crisis the past two months, the hearings reportedly were meant to stem losses incurred by many workers and retirees whose 401(k) and IRA balances have been shrinking rapidly.



Let me first say this is improbable. However:

  1. This would be Draconian.
  2. What idiot feels that the Social Security Administration has any capacity to manage enormous investment funds other than through buying Treasury instruments?
  3. This can only be an idea of how to refinance the pillaged social security funds.
  4. This would not be any different than Chavez’s recent moves.
  5. This would place the US alongside all Banana Republics.
  6. This is not gold.
  7. This is a liberal professor speaking to the left.
  8. This is the most disturbing event to be suggested.
  9. This is not good for the dollar.
  10. This is good for gold.


Now having said that, let’s address your major concerns based on today’s calls and faxes.

  1. This is the most disturbing item I have experienced since OTC derivative dealings began in a serious way in 1991.
  2. Discussions of the confiscation of citizen’s assets at this level, no matter how it is presented, has the potential for catastrophic consequences.
  3. If Citizens can have their asset confiscated who in the world would consider the dollar, US Treasuries, or US depositories safe from confiscation without representation?
  4. With the TIC reports already threatening the dollar, consider the flight of petro funds from the US.
  5. Financially the back door was closed by the Patriot Act. On January 1st, 2009 expatriates will have practically all their assets taxed away. That is law and that is fact. The front door is closed because a nation of immigrants refuses to allow legal immigration. The country is locked down.
  6. Never say never regarding confiscation of any asset if in the unlikely case the article above is true.
  7. My solution is public.
  8. Your solution is to do what I have done, not necessarily in the same way.
  9. Incorporate in another country, operate in a third country, trade on multiple national exchanges. It is a form of Harry’s formula of having your money in one country, your citizenship in another country and your body in a third country. For me this is true corporately.
  10. You do not need to do exactly what I have. If you look carefully there are other vehicles which you might already be in that contain the same characteristics.
  11. Take physical delivery of your shares.
  12. Do nothing illegal.
  13. Do not deal with anyone that offers a service that is in the light of day illegal. If you do, they will own you.
  14. If you select to expatriate your gold do it legally.
  15. Gold ETFs will be treated exactly like gold.
  16. Coin dealers will try to talk you into collector gold coins, declaring them free of confiscation risk. They may be but you are entering into an art, not gold market. You will be expertly screwed price wise.

In conclusion, I strongly doubt retirement accounts will be confiscated this early in a new Administration. The USA is still a nation of NASCAR fans in the main. The public would simply go wild.

You cannot try anything illegal as no transfer of funds goes unnoticed today.

The front door is closed and the back door is closed for US citizens on 01/01/09. US citizens simply have to deal with it. I believe I have already.

Take delivery of your shares in the form of paper certificates. As a second option become a direct registration book entry at the respective company’s transfer agent. Do it tomorrow because you already know that soon many gold and silver public companies will become fully computerized and cease the issue of paper certificates while dissuading direct registration if they even allow it.

Every exit is shutting down. “This is it and it is now” takes on a new dimension.

Even though I doubt that such Draconian means will be introduced, I believe in being prepared with all your funds that are now outside of retirement accounts.

We can no longer say never on the possibility of gold confiscation talk at the same level. I still doubt both will ever happen, but be prepared.

Do not act emotionally and pay confiscation tax levels. Cool down and think about things. Nothing so draconian will happen so early in a new Administration – believe me. What was reported is a liberal professor speaking to the left.

Your watchman,

Posted at 11:33 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Did I hear someone say that prices cannot rise in a deflationary business condition?

That is not true when the currency of that country implodes.

This will be the dollar situation as we move to “Quantitive Unsterilized Stimulation” along with fiscal stimulus to heed the needs of the voting constituency as politically expedient.

Stunned Icelanders Struggle After Economy’s Fall

“This country, as modern and sophisticated as it is geographically isolated, still seems to be in shock. But if the events of last month – the failure of Iceland’s banks; the plummeting of its currency; the first wave of layoffs; the loss of reputation abroad – felt like a bad dream, Iceland has now awakened to find that it is all coming true.

Overnight, people lost their savings. Prices are soaring. Once-crowded restaurants are almost empty. Banks are rationing foreign currency, and companies are finding it dauntingly difficult to do business abroad. Inflation is at 16 percent and rising. People have stopped traveling overseas. The local currency, the krona, was 65 to the dollar a year ago; now it is 130. Companies are slashing salaries, reducing workers’ hours and, in some instances, embarking on mass layoffs.”



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As bailout financial needs and a negative TIC appear, the mechanism to take down the 35-year bull market on the 30 year Treasuries are in place.

U.S. to Borrow Record This Quarter to Finance Deficit
November 03, 2008

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury more than tripled its planned debt sales for this quarter to help finance a 2009 budget deficit that bond dealers advising the department estimate may swell to almost $1 trillion.

Borrowing needs are expected to rise to $550 billion in the three months to Dec. 31, compared with the $142 billion predicted in July, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington. That follows a $530 billion record in the July-September quarter.

The worsening credit crisis and sluggish economy are straining the country’s finances and will leave the winner of tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election facing the worst budget shortfall on record next year. The Treasury is scheduled to announce in two days plans to expand debt sales to fund the gap.

“The U.S. Treasury faces an unprecedented financing need,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Ed McKelvey, echoing a similar comment last week by Anthony Ryan, the Treasury’s acting undersecretary for domestic finance.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

No kidding. Our friends across the border look more like Pirate Pete and Blackbeard than brokerages.

Regulation ‘failures’ show need for new market watchdog: Flaherty
November 04, 2008

Failures of regulation have undermined Canada’s relatively stable financial system during the course of the global credit crisis and underlined the need for a new market watchdog, according to Jim Flaherty.

The Minister of Finance served notice on his provincial counterparts Monday that the Conservatives are determined to create a national securities regulator with the power to supervise obscure corners of capital markets where systemic risks can mount quickly.

The drive to tighten Ottawa’s grip on market supervision comes amid a push by European leaders for improved international co-operation after a string of bank collapses that appeared to push the global financial system to the brink of collapse.

In such capitals as Paris and London, the opaque international system of complex credit instruments is viewed as having played a critical role in spreading contagion through the banking system and compelling governments to intervene on a massive scale.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Thousands of banks need money and are therefore in trouble. Did FDIC not give a number of slightly over 100 on their watch list?

Rescue Cash Lures Thousands of Banks
November 03, 2008

WASHINGTON — Treasury and banking regulators say as many as 1,800 publicly held institutions could apply for government investments in coming weeks, out of concern that failing to do so could make them losers in a banking sector reshaped by the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue plan.

Depending upon conditions still being crafted by Treasury, thousands more private banks could apply for government capital as well, a Treasury spokeswoman said Sunday.

Only days ago, many healthy banks were saying they didn’t need taxpayer money under the Troubled Asset Relief Program. These healthy banks said they worried that taking government investments could unfairly tar them as in need of a bailout. In the past week, that perception has been reversed, due in large part to efforts by Treasury, banking lobbyists and legal advisers to sell the TARP.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

No kidding!

Obama Faces `Urgent’ Task in Replacing SEC’s Cox, Lawmakers Say
November 07, 2008

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — President-elect Barack Obama should act quickly to name a new leader for the Securities and Exchange Commission, an agency that has drawn fire for not doing enough to regulate markets and protect investors, lawmakers said.

“The new administration will have no more urgent priority, in my view, than putting a team of capable, experienced and qualified economic leaders swiftly in place, from the Treasury secretary, to the Federal Reserve and the Securities Exchange Commission,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said yesterday at a Washington news conference.

SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, 56, has said he will step down at the end of the Bush administration. Potential successors include William Brodsky, chief executive officer of the Chicago Board Options Exchange; Mellody Hobson, president of Ariel Capital Management; and Gary Gensler, a former Treasury Department undersecretary and partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., congressional aides, SEC officials and lobbyists said.

“It’s part of the economic team that President-elect Obama” should assemble “quickly,” Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, said in an interview yesterday. “You want someone, obviously, who’s knowledgeable of markets and has good judgment with strong investor protection being the key,” said Reed, who leads a banking subcommittee that oversees the SEC.


Posted at 11:19 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

The Federal Reserve cannot be the lender of last resort to all nations near and dear and to all major US and international employers. President Obama’s 20 economic advisors will not accomplish anything real. The Federal Reserve under Bernanke has entered dangerous territory that up to now has been the bastion of academics.

As the world turns to the Fed to be bailed out, the question will soon be who will bail out the Fed. The answer is clear – no one. The US dollar is in grave danger due to this shift to so far failed (Japan) academic solutions. In truth, all other solution are failing as well.

This situation is bigger than the US Federal Reserve. The US Federal Reserve cannot accomplish what they have undertaken. If you don’t know that you simply lack a calculator with enough zeros.

The US dollar as the common share of the USA cannot enjoy a bull market while their balance sheet is being torn to shreds.

Gold is a currency, not a commodity. It has always been a currency. Industrial demand is a trivial constituent to the price of gold. There is no question about that. Gold as a currency moves inverse to the US dollar. It has always been so. It will always be so.

Do not fail to protect yourself. You will need every avenue of protection that I have suggested to you.

The US dollar is headed to .72, .62 and .52 on the USDX as a product of the move of the Fed into the “strategy of quantitative easing.”

There is no doubt in the mind of those blessed by understanding that gold is headed to at least $1650.

Order your shares as paper certificates while you still can.

Potential confiscation of retirement plans now being discussed in legislative testimony is the most disturbing scenario I have ever heard.

Consider gold confiscation now a potential whereas it was simply a bad dream before.

Consider that Gold ETFs fit into the confiscation scenario assuming such a draconian act could actually be taken.

Look for juniors that have strong characteristics of selection. These include juniors with strong management with proven track records that are willing to fight for their shareholders, ones with proven resources in the ground, ones that operate in politically sound countries, ones with no derivatives exposure and ones that have internal financing already in place. No we cannot provide you with a list – this is up to you to research on your own.

If I were to construct such a vehicle it would be incorporated outside the USA, do business in a third country and trade outside the USA. Most importantly, the shares should be paper certificated with those certificates in my hands, not the hands of a US brokerage firm.

Fed capitulates: the central bank is broken

Or perhaps better, the entire banking system is broken.

For it appears that the US Federal Reserve has given up on the idea of easing stress on interbank and wholesale lending and is resigned to being the central bank-come-market-maker of last, first and every resort.

For some time now there’s been a debate about the direction of the Fed’s policy. Would we see target rates come down further? Quantitative easing? Massive T-Bill issuance in the open market?

From the Fed yesterday:

The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that it will alter the formulas used to determine the interest rates paid to depository institutions on required reserve balances and excess reserve balances.

Previously, the rate on required reserve balances had been set at the average target federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over a reserves maintenance period minus 10 basis points. The rate on excess balances had been set as the lowest federal funds rate target in effect during a reserve maintenance period minus 35 basis points. Under the new formulas, the rate on required reserve balances will be set equal to the average target federal funds rate over the reserve maintenance period. The rate on excess balances will be set equal to the lowest FOMC target rate in effect during the reserve maintenance period. These changes will become effective for the maintenance periods beginning Thursday, November 6.


Posted at 3:23 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

The key element in this article is the word “Predators.”

What would you do if a predator injured your nearest and dearest and the law looked the other way?

What would Arjuna or the Earp Brothers do?

You certainly would not buy them and therein reward evil. You would terminate the problem. You can’t inflict injury without expecting retribution.

That is the spiritual law of instant Karma.

These money changers must be driven by force out of their money changing. In a world of spiritual and materialistic evil, problems may require solutions at their level of operation.

Your Watchman,

Sarkozy Turns Sovereign Fund Idea Upside Down: Michael R. Sesi 

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — It was bound to happen. And it should surprise no one that the French were the ones to initiate it.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy last month proposed that European countries establish sovereign wealth funds to purchase stakes in key companies in the region to foil overseas “predators” seeking control at knockdown prices.

“I wouldn’t want to see European citizens wake up in a few months and discover that a European company is owned by non- European investors who bought at a rock-bottom price,” Sarkozy told the European Parliament on Oct. 21.

The good news is that Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, shot down the idea. Still, that didn’t deter the French head of state from going it alone.

“I will not be the French president who wakes up in six months’ time to see that French industrial groups have passed into other hands,” Sarkozy told French business leaders in Argonay in the French Alps two days later. Europe “mustn’t be naive, mustn’t leave its companies at the mercy of all predators, mustn’t be the only one not to defend its interests, not to protect its citizens.”


Posted at 5:09 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold is a currency, so therefore what is good for the US dollar is not good for gold. What is bad for the US dollar is good for gold. It all ends right there.

It is time again to remind you to focus on why we are right, not those items that anti-gold interests spread around the internet.

You cannot compare the condition of the US dollar and gold in the Clinton Administration in light of the probability that President elect Obama will draft many of them. The economic conditions now and then have no comparison whatsoever.

The inflation/deflation/recession/depression arguments will fall flat on their face just as they did in the 70s.

The argument that there is more problems in the central European area than in the US fails on comparison of the financial industry between the two and the much smaller amount of over the counter derivatives held.

The fact that the Federal Reserve is financing the bailout of central European countries via swap arrangements with other central banks and the IMF brings all the planet’s problems back to the US dollar in time.