Posted at 4:29 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear CIGAs,

CIGA Dean shares with us a case study on why the heard headed for the long bond, for the T bill and into every port that was and will be no port in this financial storm. There is only one and that is Gold. They will come at $1650 and again at $6000.

Jim,

I wanted to pass this story on to you, Dan and Monty.

I grew up on a ranch. The largest structure on our ranch was a very large and beautiful classic designed barn.

One night when I was very young the barn caught on fire.

My Dad and his hired men risked running into the barn to rescue the horses. Naturally the horses were panicked and terrified. After getting the horses outside to safety the horses turned around and ran back into the barn. Despite their best efforts they could not stop the horses from running back into the barn and they all perished in the fire.

Why would the horses do such a foolish thing?

My Father told me that the barn was where they felt safe and secure. He explained to me that in their blind panic they ignored the obvious danger and they ran back into the only place they had been conditioned to feel safe in.

Sound familiar?

CIGA Dean

 

Jim,

Here is a case of political correctness run completely amok… 

No one or no thing is safe until Washington is in recess. If it moves these people will tax it…

Trader Dan

Dan,

What about taxing human flatulence at $10 a pop, of course with a national identity card placed appropriately so that automatic reports are made of offending incidents. We want zero tolerance when it comes to this offal subject.

Regards,
Jim

EPA ‘Cow Tax’ Could Charge $175 per Dairy Cow to Curb Greenhouse Gases 
Farm Bureau warns just this one rule may increase milk production costs up to 8 cents a gallon.
By Jeff Poor 
Business & Media Institute
12/30/2008 4:55:19 PM

Call this one of the newest and innovative the ways your government has come up with to battle greenhouse gas emissions.

Indirectly it could be considered a cheeseburger tax, but one of the suggestions offered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in its Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) for regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act is to levy a tax on livestock.

The ANPR, released early this year, would give the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gas for not only greenhouse gas from manmade sources like transportation and industry, but also “stationary” sources which would include livestock.

The New York Farm Bureau assigned a price tag to the cost of greenhouse gas regulation by the EPA in a release last month.

“The tax for dairy cows could be $175 per cow, and $87.50 per head of beef cattle. The tax on hogs would upwards of $20 per hog,” the release said. “Any operation with more than 25 dairy cows, 50 beef cattle or 200 hogs would have to obtain permits.”

Kate Galbraith, correspondent for The New York Times, noted on the Times’ “Green Inc.” blog that such a “proposal is far from being enacted” and that the “hysteria may be premature.”

But Rick Krause, senior director of congressional relations for the American Farm Bureau, warned it’s certainly feasible – especially based on the rhetoric of President-elect Barack Obama and the use of the EPA to combat global warming. Such action by an Obama administration would take an act of Congress for livestock to be exempt.

More…

Posted at 3:59 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

The start of a full week of trading in the New Year brought back the full complement of traders and with them the usual selling pressure emerged precisely at 2:00 AM, CST as London opened for business. The Euro was immediately violated and with its assault, the Dollar went the other way, namely straight up. Of course the usual gold selling gang wasted no time in attacking the yellow metal as it was pummeled $15. From that point it was nowhere but down as trading moved into New York where it received another mugging as all of the gains produced in the thinly-traded holiday markets of last year were wiped out. As I mentioned last week, low volume price action must always be suspect – it is simply too easy for a few, well-timed big orders to push  a holiday market in any direction one wants it to go.

Today’s downdraft has taken gold back under the 10 day moving average which has now turned lower. Gold is still trading above the 20 day moving average and the longer term moving averages are still trending upwards so technically the market is bullish although the recent price action has left a somewhat negative short term chart formation that gold will have to deal with. It should be noted that once again the buy recommendation of a well known newsletter writer has proved to be the kiss of death for any gold rally. It is amazing to me how uncannily accurate in an inverse manner this writer has been when it comes to gold. Buy recommendations mean gold sells off and sell recommendations means that gold is getting ready to rally. Fading his actions has proven to be quite profitable for astute gold traders.

Support near the $850 level gave way early in today’s session before buying showed up in sufficient size to push the market away from that zone. This initial support did hold but barely.  The next level of support should $850 give way, and one that gold must hold in order to keep the technicals friendly, is the $830 level. Two consecutive closes below that level and a short term top will be in (at least for gold priced in Dollar terms). Resistance still lies at the very stubborn $880 level. It is obvious that a seller/sellers of size are making a stand there – we all know who that is by now.

Again – at the risk of beating a dead horse- the only way to beat that crowd is to remove the metal from the Comex warehouses. Players of size must understand that they cannot win the paper game at the Comex unless they deprive the paper shorts of sufficient metal backing to make them vulnerable to delivery pressures. Along that line only 3 deliveries were assigned in the January this morning bringing this month’s total to 1,156 contracts or 115,600 ounces. January is a very thinly traded contract month so the bulk of any strategy to take gold in size will probably have to be relegated to the February as this month winds down. Those who intend to do so should use any selling pressure provided by the bullion banks, such as what we have seen today, as an opportunity to put on fresh longs with the intent to acquire the physical metal at a discount.

We had just begun to see an increase in the open interest in gold which now means that all of the brand new longs from the last week are under water and losing money on their positions. Some of the shorter term oriented guys were stopped out today and might even have gone short. The funds will maintain the bulk of their longs as long as moving average support is not violated.

There was a great deal of chatter this morning that the US Dollar was moving higher on details of the proposed economic stimulus by the incoming Obama administration which added some tax cuts to the package in order to attract some Republican support. The thinking is that a combination of spending and tax cuts will help the US to come out of its economic funk sooner than other countries which have also been afflicted by the spreading recessionary virus. That remains to be seen but for today that is the current “wisdom”. One thing is certain in these goofy modern markets – today’s wisdom is more often than not seen as foolishness in hindsight. It is necessary to keep in mind that the hedge funds that plague today’s markets are the antithesis of wisdom – their trading skills consist of playing Pac-Man with whatever unfortunate market they happen to hone in on.

Interestingly enough, all of the commodity currencies ( the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar) were trading higher against the US Dollar this morning. I am not sure what to make of that just yet but it bears watching. It could very well be that some players are sensing a bottom in the commodity complex. If that is indeed the case, and I believe it certainly is for the grain complex, then gold will benefit. The platinum group of metals has negative macroeconomic factors to deal with as does copper so if those two metal groups can forge a definitive bottom, it will be quite friendly for the entire commodity sector. Let’s just watch and see how this goes.

The mining sector was knocked lower today in the face of paper gold weakness but the HUI and the XAU have recovered off of their worst session levels as the broader US markets moved higher and into positive territory. There are some signs of bearish divergence on some of the technical indicators for the HUI and XAU daily charts although both indices remain well above their 50 day and 100 day moving averages. One could make the case for a POTENTIAL double top in the HUI near the 309-311 level but that would only be confirmed were the HUI to close below the 260 level. That level also closely corresponds to the 100 day moving average which should garner buying support if this sector is indeed going to sustain its uptrend into early 2009.

Crude oil moved further away from its chart lows this morning as a combination of geopolitical tensions from Israel/Gaza/, Russian idiotic shenanigans with their energy sources and further disruptions to Nigerian crude production as nine workers on a rig were taken hostage all served to garner speculative buying in that pit. Call me a bit skeptical still on the crude rally as I want to see further confirmation before I would feel comfortable saying that a longer term bottom is in this market. Technically the charts are improving but the $50 level is pretty significant technical resistance so until that is broken I am a doubter. I can see a consolidative type of trade in crude where it finds support down in the low $40’s to upper $30’s but as far as a new bullish uptrend goes, given the current recessionary environment, it will take geopolitical events to drive it higher. It should be noted that crude’s strength this morning helped to pull gold off of its worst levels of the session.

One more point to note – there is talk about rebalancing of commodity indices which will bear watching as that will have an impact on gold should rumors be proven true.

The bonds are looking more and more like a top is in. They have broken down below both the 10 and 20 day moving averages with both of those also now turning lower. Should they give way at the 40 day moving average near the 130^20 level, chances are that the lows are in for yields. I expect the funds to put up a fight at that level to defend their longs.

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

January0509Gold1230pmCDT

Posted at 12:50 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

More tax cuts and more voodoo economics, a replay of the Mugabe/Zimbabwe approach to manufacturing paper and the dropping of tax revenue produce at best a double dip depression and more fiscal spending. It is simply more of the same. Doing the same produces the same, nothing else. Any other opinion is madness while grabbing at political solutions to real problems.

The fix was engineered by the Comex guys as they handed you your daily screwing yet again today at 7:02am in the NYC morning. Apparently the Comex guys got up a tad late today – perhaps still suffering from weekend hangovers.

Minus $23 in gold and a three cent change in the euro are simply more signs of the madness that is virulent in the mind of markets. As the fat shark eats the fat shark we end up with very few fat hedge fund sharks running markets. Nobody can do business when major trading currencies change 2.7% in five minutes. No major business on earth is smart enough to be able to maintain profit margins as the payment currencies change with such levels of violence.

Ignore the madness. Ignore the manipulators. Focus on the real. More of the same by a different personality will not produce different results. The dollar is dead. That is reality.

Let the paper tigers of the Comex pound the paper while you take delivery out of the warehouse and the big physical buyers just keep cleaning up and weak hand selling. I went to the Krugerrand and RSA gold factory between Johannesburg and Pretoria. All I heard was this great sucking noise as demand across the globe continued to take whatever the mints were able or willing to produce.

It is a total joke to assume that printing more paper money and spending what you do not have will strengthen that currency and set all that is askew right.

It simply will not, cannot, never has done and never will do anything but deepen the problem.

Let the nit-wits play in their in their boxes made on sand foundations. Let the media howl as they add only to their Tower of Babble.

Join me in this grand battle to end white collar crime and the white collar criminals. Take delivery of Comex gold, move it out of the Comex warehouse, sell it in the open market with a profit or even break even and do it all again and again and again. 1000 of us doing that by buying breaks like today will slice the Comex warehouse inventory in half in six months, maybe a lot sooner. War requires warriors.

Please join myself, Harry, Bill M , Jim P, Semper Fi # 321 and all the good guys, regardless of disagreements that come from time to time, in this great battle to protect our people.

Stop the rape! Stop the manipulations. Stop the takers, the users and the destroyers in gold. Stop paper money by getting the paper guys off gold. Stop those who believe they have dominion over you. I have had it, haven’t you? Where is your rage? You can borrow some of mine as I have plenty to spare. Let today be the day they screwed with the wrong people.

Your weapon is simple: 100 ounces out of the Comex warehouse bought when the paper guys beat it all to crap. Hold it and sell into the next rally in the cash market away from the Comex. Do it over and over again.

Take a stand please. It can get lonely out here from time to time.

The following is total nonsense and insanity according to Einstein’s description. The absolute best it can deliver is the bear market rally after the 1929 break, leading to the double dip depression and then on to the secondary (and more serious) market and phycological break of the awful 32 bottom.

All this strategy will do is spark the greatest inflation in the dollar’s history. Right now in reality, it is not worth a Continental.

You either fix the entire system, or there is no fix at all. This is why Obama’s team will never call me.

This is what a Canadian, Dr. Reuven Brenner, could do for them.

Dollar Rises Against Euro, Yen on Obama Plan for U.S. Stimulus
By Anchalee Worrachate and Stanley White

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — The dollar rose against the euro and the yen on speculation President-elect Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus will help the U.S. economy recover from the recession.

The dollar climbed to the highest level in almost three weeks against the European currency and gained against 15 out of the 16 most actively traded counterparts monitored by Bloomberg. Obama crafted a package of infrastructure spending and tax cuts to create three million jobs. The euro fell after European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said further interest-rate cuts may be needed should inflation keep slowing.

“Obama’s stimulus package came in at a higher end of expectations, and is skewed more towards tax cuts than has been expected,” said Adam Cole, London-based head of global currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada Ltd., the nation’s largest lender. “That’s positive for dollar sentiment. Moves might be exaggerated a bit because trading volumes in the market are still quite thin.”

The dollar strengthened to $1.3644 per euro at 7:02 a.m. in New York, from $1.3921 on Jan. 2. One dollar bought 93.32 yen, from 91.83 yen. The U.S. currency will strengthen to 98 yen by the end of June, according to Cole. It traded at $1.4515 to the British pound, from $1.4548.

More…

Obama Said to Push for Tax Cuts in Stimulus Plan (Update1)
By Brian Faler and Ryan J. Donmoyer

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package will include hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tax breaks for individuals and businesses, according to a transition official and Democratic aides.

Obama is asking that tax cuts make up 40 percent of a stimulus package, the people say. The measure may be worth as much as $775 billion, a Democratic aide says, meaning tax cuts may constitute more than $300 billion of the legislation.

The dollar today rose to the highest level in almost three weeks against the euro and also surged against the yen on speculation that the Obama plan would help the U.S. economy recover from recession.

Making tax cuts such a large part of the stimulus may help win support from congressional Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said his party would support an immediate middle-class tax cut as part of any stimulus package.

“Republicans, by and large, think tax relief is a great way to get money to people immediately,” McConnell said yesterday on ABC’s “This Week.”

More…

Click here to read about Dr. Brenner…

Posted at 6:02 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Ok, I am not shy. Mugabe move over, here comes the US Federal Reserve.

Zimbabwe will happen in the US. The dollar is going to tank like never before!!!

Consequences, consequences, consequences. They are unavoidable.

The US dollar is not worth a Continental. This is just how Zimbabwe today started!

Fed has abandoned monetary policy, critic says
Sat Jan 3, 2009 9:58pm EST

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve has embarked on a campaign of unsupervised industrial policy to end the country’s financial crisis, a move that could undermine its independence, a former top U.S. official said on Saturday.

John Taylor, who was under secretary of treasury for international affairs from 2001 to 2005, said the explosive growth of the Fed’s balance sheet since September was "unbelievable."

"This doesn’t really seem like quantitative easing in the sense of finding a growth rate in the money supply," he told a panel discussion during the annual meeting of the American Economics Association.

"What you are looking at now is really being determined by other considerations. How much should we buy of mortgage-backed securities? How much should we loan to foreign central banks? This is really more like an industrial policy," he said.

The Fed’s balance sheet has more than doubled in size to over $1.2 trillion in recent months as it has tried to shield the U.S. economy from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression by supporting key credit markets.

This has included direct purchases of mortgage-backed bonds by the Fed and support for top-rated non-financial borrowers in the crucial commercial paper market, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars lent to banks on the basis of collateral.

"If you have a situation where the Fed is borrowing to invest in all these sectors it seems to me you have a huge governance issue…that demands a lot of thought," Taylor said.

Taylor said the U.S. Congress has a legitimate right to demand a say in who the Fed lends money to. The outcome would be "radical reform" that would risk monetary policy independence, he said.

This concern was echoed somewhat by the president of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, James Bullard, who also took part in the panel discussion. He said the close collaboration between the Fed and U.S. Treasury in fighting the crisis could have unintended consequences.

"We are blurring the institutional arrangements a little," Bullard said. "I am concerned about independence. Fed independence is very important," he told reporters.

(Reporting by Alister Bull, editing by Leslie Adler)

Link to article…

Posted at 6:00 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following reasons offered at a press conference of the NY Fed (not really) assure us that Zimbabwe/Mugabe economics will never occur in the USA.

1. There was no theft of funds here.
2. The use of the trillions of dollar of bailout money is totally transparent.
3. Those that caused the problems have been dealt with severely.
4. The Balance Sheet of the US Fed is pristine.
5. The Fed will of course mop up all the excess liquidity as soon as they get set up as the Miraculous Hedge Fund, retaining goofy Madoff as their manager floating $5 trillion in the internal US credit market as China opts out.

Zimbabwe’s money man plans to keep on printing
January 1 2009

The activists print anti-Gono fliers in English and Shona and target people standing in line at banks to withdraw money. They feature cartoons of Gono loading Reserve Bank money into the back of cars or gulping down feasts, usually with his foot on a child’s skeleton.

"IT’S YOUR MONEY — TAKE IT NOW!" screams one flier.

"IF GONO STAYS WE WILL ALL DIE!" bellows another.

"Gono is the weak link in the Mugabe regime because he’s become incredibly powerful and incredibly bloated, and he’s got very few friends in the system," said one activist involved in the project, who spoke anonymously for fear of reprisals. "No ministry can get access to cash without going to Gono. He controls everything. He’s become this power-mad individual who’s loathed by the whole country."

He said other members of the group regarded the GonoGoNow project as their most dangerous anti-regime activity. "They think Gono would kill over this," said the activist.

Gono recently launched his book, "Zimbabwe’s Casino Economy," dashed off in 60 days. In an economy where most U.S. dollar transactions are banned, his book is priced at $40.

Tony Hawkins, an independent Harare-based economist whose citation awarding Gono an MBA distinction is appended, these days describes Gono’s performance as "disastrous."

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Pakistan today!

India Set to Show Pakistan Links to Mumbai Attacks, Times Says
By Jay Shankar

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — India will release evidence next week of Pakistani involvement in the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, the Times of India reported, citing officials it didn’t identify.

A detailed confession by the lone surviving terrorist, Ajmal Kasab, will highlight a report to be delivered to India-based diplomats of the U.S., U.K., China and other countries, as well as to officials in foreign capitals, the newspaper reported. A copy will also be given to Pakistan, it said.

The report includes photographs and identities of all 10 terrorists, phone logs, data from a global positioning system device and call intercepts, the paper said.

Other evidence includes a logbook recovered from the vessel that carried the terrorists from Karachi, records of satellite phones used by the attackers and transcripts of conversations between the terrorists and their “handlers” in Pakistan during the Nov. 26-29 attack, the Times reported, quoting government sources it didn’t identify.

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation was granted “unprecedented” access to all the evidence and intelligence collected by India, according to the newspaper.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember the comparative interest rate gang that declared that to be the sole determinant of a currency’s value? Where have those bulls all gone?

Evans says Fed needs to mimic below-zero rates
Sat Jan 3, 2009 9:37pm EST
By Ros Krasny

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – A grim economic outlook highlights the need for the Federal Reserve to step up quantitative measures to boost growth, with official interest rates already effectively at zero, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Saturday.

Evans said that based on the outlook for rising unemployment, falling industrial production and a wider output gap, economic models suggest rates should be below zero.

"If it were not constrained by zero, those models would want to push it below zero, but that’s not possible," Evans told reporters after a panel at the American Economic Association’s meeting in San Francisco.

Quantitative easing, a way to flood the banking system with large amounts of money, "is a way to mimic below-zero rates and provide support to the economy," he said.

More…

Posted at 2:46 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear CIGAs,

The following is breaking news from CIGA Tom.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxBl9BXLom4

 

 

Dear Jim,

Just one little spark could blow this whole thing sky high and gold and oil with it!

Best,
CIGA BT

‘Light the fire’ order set Mumbai ablaze

Evidence is growing that the bombings were orchestrated by militants in Pakistan

TENSIONS between India and Pakistan, the rival nuclear powers, are on a knife edge this weekend as Islamabad refuses to admit that the Mumbai terrorist outrage was planned and carried out by Pakistanis.

Zarar Shah, a leading commander of the Lashkar-e-Taiba group, has admitted under interrogation in Pakistan that he advised the terrorists by telephone as the attack unfolded.

Controllers in Pakistan watched live television and warned the gunmen of the arrival of Indian commandos, according to evidence amassed by the FBI and handed over to the Pakistani government.

More…

Dear Big Tatanka,

Yes, in a big way.

Regards,
Jim

 

Dear Jim,

It looks like a longer drawn out conflict with Israel. Barak says "it won’t be short and it won’t be easy." Tens of thousands is not a week long incursion! Freezing in Ukraine, Europe soon, bombs in the Middle East, Tanzania looks pretty good right now!

Israel okays call-up of tens of thousands of IDF reservists
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent, and Reuters

Israel’s government has approved the call-up of tens of thousands of reservist soldiers, it was annnounced Saturday, almost simultaneously with the launch of a Gaza ground incursion aimed at halting rocket fire on Israel’s southern communities.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office said in a statement that, in accordance with a secret cabinet discussion Friday, the government ordered the armed forces "to draft the necessary reservists, on a scale of tens of thousands of troops."

More…

IDF soldier killed, another seriously wounded in Gaza ground operation
By Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Yanir Yagana, Haaretz Correspondents, and News Agencies

An Israeli soldier was killed in a clash with Gaza militants on Sunday, the first fatality suffered by Israel since it launched a ground operation on Saturday night against the coastal territory’s Hamas rulers.

The soldier, from the Israel Defense Forces Golani infantry brigade, was killed in the densely populated Jabalya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip.

More…

Best,
CIGA Big Tatanka

Dear BT,

Looking your way today from Africa, it certainly looks that way.

a. Israel makes a serious mistake in judgment.
b. Pakistan goes nuclear.
c. Terror returns to major international centers.

There is potential for something terrible looking your way.

Regards,
Jim

Posted at 11:17 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

A misjudgment by Israel, Pakistan goes nuclear and 2012 is tomorrow. If this is not it, it is close.

Israeli tanks roll into Gaza strip as ground invasion begins
BY ERICA SILVERMAN in Ramallah, West Bank and CHRISTINA BOYLE in New York
DAILY NEWS WRITERS
Updated Saturday, January 3rd 2009, 7:18 PM

Israeli troops and tanks crossed into the Gaza Strip under the cover of darkness Saturday, signaling the start of a bloody ground offensive that military leaders warned would not be short.

Hamas, which seized control of Gaza a year and a half ago and has been attacking Israel with rockets, responded with defiant threats.

"We will fight till our last breath. Your invasion of Gaza will not be a cakewalk. Gaza will be your cemetery," Hamas spokesman Ismail Radwan said.

Israeli officials called up tens of thousands of reservists and warned the incursion would not end quickly.

"It won’t be easy and it won’t be short," Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a televised address. "We do not seek war, but we will not abandon our citizens to the ongoing Hamas attacks."

More… 

Israel’s Worst Fears
Its U.S. ambassador says the big threat is that Iran has almost enough fuel for its first nuclear weapon.
Published Jan 3, 2009
From the magazine issue dated Jan 12, 2009

Sallai Meridor has been Israel’s ambassador to the United States since 2006. During that time, his government’s main strategic worry has been Iran, and that remains so today despite the fighting in Gaza. Israel warns that Iran is making rapid progress toward a nuclear bomb—Meridor calculates that Tehran should have enough fuel for its first bomb sometime in 2009—and that Israel will take military action unless the United States and other allies step in. A former intelligence officer, Meridor recently met with NEWSWEEK editors in New York to discuss Iran and how best to deal with it. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: Is there a timetable on Iran’s nuclear program? The CIA is saying they could have a weapon by 2015.
MERIDOR: Look, this is the most critical issue for America and the Western world. The major concern is instability and the potential for nuclear weapons to escape the region, which is not necessarily going to wait until Iran has a nuclear warhead on a missile. The closer they get to having a bomb, and the closer they are perceived to be, you can expect Iran’s neighbors to start acting on the assumption that Iran is going to have a bomb.

How close is Iran?
The last IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] report, some weeks ago, indicated that the Iranians already have 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. The previous report found 480 kilograms. At that pace they are producing close to 2.5 kilograms a day. And over the past few months they have had a technological breakthrough. Experts differ on how much low-enriched uranium you need for a first bomb. But even if you took the more conservative assumption, sometime in 2009 they will have enough. That nobody would argue against: no intelligence service, no experts.

More…

 

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.

2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.

3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.

4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.

5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.

6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.

7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.

8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).

9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.

10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.

11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.

12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year
$2 Trillion Increase May Test Federal Ability to Borrow
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer 
Saturday, January 3, 2009; Page A01

With President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats considering a massive spending package aimed at pulling the nation out of recession, the national debt is projected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing U.S. government spending.

For now, investors are frantically stuffing money into the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury, which has come to serve as the world’s mattress in troubled times. Interest rates on Treasury bills have plummeted to historic lows, with some short-term investors literally giving the government money for free.

But about 40 percent of the debt held by private investors will mature in a year or less, according to Treasury officials. When those loans come due, the Treasury will have to borrow more money to repay them, even as it launches perhaps the most aggressive expansion of U.S. debt in modern history.

With the government planning to roll over its short-term loans into more stable, long-term securities, experts say investors are likely to demand a greater return on their money, saddling taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come. Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest U.S. creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the United States as the bedrock of the global financial system.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is one way to cut down on public assistance. Starve our fixed income retirees out of the equation.

Savers facing accounts with no interest
Millions of savers are braced for zero per cent accounts within days as the Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates to the lowest level in its 315-year history.
By Edmund Conway and Myra Butterworth
Last Updated: 1:44PM GMT 03 Jan 2009

Experts have warned the return on savings could plumb new depths with the Bank expected to take unprecedented steps to regain control over the economy.

They widely believe the Bank will reduce borrowing costs to below their 2 per cent level – and possibly all the way down to 1 per cent – in its first meeting of the year next week.

More than 7 million people have saving accounts which already pay interest of 1 per cent or less. If a cut is passed on in full by banks, these accounts will dive towards negative territory for the first time on record.

Many elderly people who rely on the income from savings have found themselves struggling in recent months as returns fall.

Just 18 months ago average interest rates on savings accounts were as high as 6 per cent. But consecutive cuts by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee have led to banks slashing their savings rates, with the current average rate being just 2 per cent.

More…