Posted at 3:17 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,

Merrill Lynch issued a big report today on the banking crisis.

Here are the main points:

  1. Everyone is waiting for the big government solution.
  2. Coordinated moves will not necessarily be effective, but it will be historic if it happens.
  3. We are barely past the halfway point of the credit down cycle.
  4. People will continue to crowd into treasuries Rosenberg (and in my opinion, gold).
  5. Corporate profits not yet impacted will go lower.
  6. Private sector interest rates are rising.

As Jim Sinclair has predicted in his model, Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, who is their chief economist corroborates my opinion. He states “It is truly a modern day depression, in our view- what else do you call it when an entire industry vanishes (investment banks) in less than a year: the ranks of the unemployed soar more than 30%, and nearly one in ten homeowners with a mortgage are either in arrears or foreclosure?”

Like us, he goes on to say “Now let’s not confuse that with the Great Depression – this is not the 1930’s all over again.”

More points:

  1. The government will have taken over many banks before this ends.
  2. Finally, Rosenberg states that the current money supply boost may not be inflationary. His argument is that the velocity of money is shrinking in the US and Europe, and that is clearly true.

Over the short term I agree with him. For this reason I stated a few weeks ago that the inflation rate would moderate for a few months.

It will moderate over the short term; long term is a different story. Once the velocity of money resumes its normal functioning, the massive amounts of money currently being pumped into the system worldwide will create a big inflationary bubble.  The inflation will not hit in the next few months, but it will be big when it does hit. As Jim Sinclair likes to say, “Weimar on Weimar.”

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Posted at 2:04 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Merrill got 20 cents on the dollar. Lehman got less than 10 cents.

Only numb-nuts can fluff that off.

Attorneys are in a bull market among the financial specialists.

What the OTC derivatives did not suck out of financial firms litigation will.

Lehman debt auction gives clue to potential losses
Friday October 10, 3:20 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer

Pricing for Lehman debt provides guidance on potential bank losses tied to credit swaps

NEW YORK (AP) — Sellers of insurance on bonds issued by bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are now likely to face demands that they pay out more than 91 cents on the dollar to buyers of those insurance contracts.

That’s the upshot of an unusual auction process Friday that established the price for defaulted Lehman debt, and in turn potential claims payouts on insurance protecting that debt, known as credit default swaps.

Certainly, some firms will take a hit because of the pricing, potentially amounting to billions of dollars in combined losses. In the Lehman auction, participants included most major financial firms from around the world. But it’s too early to tell which companies will be on the hook or for how much.

“Where this is helpful is this is the first real-world situation where we see how market participants handle settling CDS,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket Inc., a marketplace for trading illiquid assets.

In a best-case scenario, Silbert said, financial firms who sold CDS contracts would make their payouts in the coming weeks, have enough capital to cover all the positions, and take their losses and move on. In a worst-case scenario, sellers of the swaps would not have the cash to make the payments and would have to liquidate their assets to cover their positions.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today is paper gold. Here is what is real gold.

Germans Stockpiling Gold Amid Market Panic

German gold dealers have stopped taking new orders for the precious metal as demand has skyrocketed. Gold is seen as a safe investment during the market turmoil.

In uncertain economic times, Germans are dumping stocks and shares to take refuge in precious metal, accoring to a Wednesday article in a Berlin newspaper.

German gold dealers report running low on stocks of gold bars and coins.

Heiko Ganss, head of the Berlin branch of gold merchant Pro Aurum, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper that most gold traders were refusing new orders, as they couldn’t meet the current demand.

“Demand is running well above our capacity to supply,” he was quoted saying, saying retail banks in Germany were also unable to meet demand.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As goes Motors so goes the USA.

GM, Ford May Face Bankruptcy on Slowdown, S&P Says (Update3)
By Jeff Green and Marco Bertacche

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC may be forced into bankruptcy by slowing economies and dwindling U.S. auto sales, Standard & Poor’s analyst Robert Schulz said.

“Macro factors could overwhelm them at some point” even as the three biggest U.S. automakers vow to stick with their turnaround plans, Schulz, S&P’s lead automotive credit analyst, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York. The companies said they have no plans for a bankruptcy filing.

His assessment underscored the pressure on GM, Ford and Chrysler as the worsening global credit crisis makes it harder for buyers to get loans and dealers to finance their operations. S&P said yesterday it may further trim credit ratings for GM and Ford on forecasts for 2009 auto demand falling to the lowest level since 1992.

With all three companies working to boost cash, any bankruptcy filing would be a last resort, not a “strategic” decision, Schulz said.

“We don’t see that as something they would choose,” he said. Schulz said the “trigger” for a forced restructuring under bankruptcy protection would be based on the automakers’ ability to preserve liquidity as sales decline. Industrywide U.S. sales slid 27 percent last month, the most in 17 years.

More…

Posted at 12:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear Friends,

The good news is that Monty and Tony are right. The bad news is that the cure will deliver a Weimar beyond Weimar within one year.

Gold is the only ultimate SAFE HAVEN. It will not be denied.

The option below is an international commitment to monetize all bankruptcies without limit while placing the entire world into a zero interest rate lock.

This is Weimar beyond Weimar.

This will make Gold the ultimate safe haven as currencies become impossible to define. This will swing gold wildly .

Manipulation of gold today, as you have seen a thousand times, will not do much.

Gold is headed to $1000 after this $900 dance, down slightly and then blast through $1000 on its way to $1200 and $1650.

The planetary killers are the OTC manufacturers, yet this QUADRILLION PLUS dollar problem is never properly defined. It never will be either.

I wager you that JP Morgan, who is collecting and being federally funded, will weather the storm by some miracle.

Eventually the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized and revitalized, fails miserably after everything else, including what is below.

Your friend,
Jim

GOLD AND THE BANKING MELTDOWN

The realization (as pointed out in the Financial Times article today entitled “Rising CDS Action Increases the Strain”) that the Lehman Brothers’ failure could create a Credit Default Swap (CDS) loss of $400 billion for counterparties is sinking into the market. This realization is leading to a continuing sell off in stocks worldwide.

It is just now dawning on people in the financial community that the two Icelandic banks failing this week makes a total of six CDS issuers who have failed in one month.  CDS buyers have no idea if they will get there money back or if their CDS’s are still in effect.  It will be a huge accounting mess, trying to decipher who owes what, and to whom.

I am more certain now, that my prediction of at least a mild depression will be correct.

The derivative mess is now coming unraveled.  The warnings were many, and some were wise enough to listen.  Belatedly, those who did not listen are starting to realize what is going on.

We can get rallies in stocks at any time.  On rallies, all financial companies are in danger of continued dilution from stock offerings, and government bailouts, where the governments take warrants and dilute existing shareholders.  Similar to the meltdown of the internet mania stocks, financial stocks will continue to fall…and many will disappear altogether.

GOLD

It appears that things will continue to get uglier for quite some time.  In this environment, gold will have its “big day in the sun”.  Gold is already hitting all-time highs versus the Euro, British Pound, Australian and Canadian dollars, and many other currencies.

THIS IS A SOLUTION WE ENDORSE, LET US HOPE AND EVEN PRAY THAT IT IS ADOPTED

Financial Times
10/09/2008

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af349090-959a-11dd-aedd-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Posted at 11:41 AM (CST) by & filed under David Duval.

Dear Friends,

David Duval, the co-founder of jsmineset.com, an internationally-recognized mining author, writer and consultant/advisor, will be augmenting our complimentary coverage on this site with a minimum weekly column on minerals including precious metals such as gold and platinum along with the much-maligned base metals including copper and nickel. He will also comment on energy-related issues as they pertain to this critically important sector in the global economy.

David will rely on his broad range of contacts in the minerals industry to analyze industry trends and welcomes intelligence from readers who are actively involved in this important market segment, keeping in mind that a reporter’s commentary is only as good as his/her sources.

For the record, David is firmly in the longer term bull camp when it comes to metals and feels the years ahead will generate significant opportunities in this market segment for astute mineral explorers, mine developers and investors alike. He will also answer questions of general interest to readers in his column but will not under any circumstances comment on specific companies or make stock recommendations. Should you wish to provide any input on this editorial initiative, please contact him here.

Posted at 10:17 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold is about to VAULT UP.

I am reliably informed that the paper versus bullion gold war is lost by paper gold at a $930 close.

Gold will vault to slightly under $1000 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200.

A Bank Holiday is moving from possible to PROBABLE.

  • Have you fully protected yourself?
  • Have you distanced yourself as much as possible away from financial agents holding your assets?
  • Have you gotten  paper certificates for your shares or became a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent?
  • Have you protected your retirement accounts the same way as your shares above but in the name of the retirement account and the trust holding them?
  • Have you closed your Money Market fund accounts regardless of what assurances your bankers offer?
  • Have you withdrawn from your Credit Union?
  • Have you exited your corporate retirement fund?
  • Do you have significant gold and related shares investments?

It is getting UGLY out there as each day an attempt to postpone a bank holiday fails. Almost every other day lately financial leaders of the world have announced new plans that were “the final answer” to the super-glued credit market. All these plans have had no effect. The Dow fell like a rock off a cliff.

This says all efforts have failed.

Libor Holds Central Banks Hostage as Credit Freezes (Update2)
By Gavin Finch and Ben Sills

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Danilo Coronacion oversees 15 percent of global coconut oil production at CIIF Oil Mills Group in the Philippines. These days, he spends a lot of time worrying about events half a world away in London. The name of his pain? Libor.

CIIF has more than $60 million of debt, or 70 percent of its working capital, linked to London interbank offered rates that have soared since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed on Sept. 15. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three-months in London jumped 23 basis points today to 4.75 percent, the highest level since December.

More…

Central Banks Fail to Alleviate `Logjam’ in Libor: Chart of Day
By Mark Gilbert and Gavin Finch

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Central-bank efforts to drive down money-market borrowing costs with coordinated interest-rate cuts are failing, according to Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed-income strategist at RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh.

“Central banks have pulled out all the stops and there’s no sign whatsoever that money-market strains are easing,” Stamenkovic said. “The logjam is going to remain in place for some time to come. Three-month rates and beyond are actually deteriorating.”

More…

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow Below 9,000; GM, Insurers Slide
By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 as higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending spurred concern carmakers, insurers and energy companies will be the next victims of the credit crisis.

More…

Posted at 10:03 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Today’s gold news is the shutting down of gold coin production by most International mints. They quote this as a reaction to the extreme demand for gold coins. They also stated that by not issuing gold coins it will bring the price of gold down. That is ridiculous reasoning as small gold demand will simply shift to other forms of gold such as 1 kilo bars with known refiner stamps and serial numbers. Who knows, maybe they will even make Dinar coins.

Friday night Paulson is scheduled to speak and the President is meeting with central banks of the group of seven over the weekend. New interests in gold see that as a reason to sell.

Gold will trade at $1200 and $1650.

This is the round number dance after hitting in a single spike one area of resistance.

Posted at 3:32 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This means a massive loss of confidence in more paper assets.

U.S. Mutual Fund Withdrawals a Record as Investors Choose Banks
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Investors pulled a record $72 billion from U.S.-managed stock and bond mutual funds in September, seeking the safety of government-insured bank deposits as the financial crisis worsened.

Shareholders took $43.5 billion from stock funds last month and $28.8 billion from bond funds, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The exodus continued in the first week of October, with an additional $49.3 billion of outflows.

“People are scared,” Conrad Gann, TrimTabs’ chief operating officer, said in an interview. “This market is different from what we’ve seen before.”

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is no more than a rehash of previous statements

U.S. Treasury May Buy Stakes in Banks Within Weeks (Update1)
By Robert Schmidt and Rebecca Christie

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — The government is planning to buy stakes in a wide range of banks within weeks as the credit freeze increasingly threatens to tip the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top aides are still considering options on how the purchases would work, including having the government acquire preferred stock, two officials informed of the matter said.

The move would be a shift in emphasis in Paulson’s original intention for the $700 billion bailout package passed by Congress last week. While the Treasury still aims to buy troubled mortgage-backed securities from financial institutions, a direct capital injection would offer more immediate relief.

“The Treasury is no longer looking for one silver bullet,” said Steve Bartlett, president of the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents 100 of the biggest firms in the industry. “They have to proceed on all fronts.”

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is once again OTC derivatives of yet another form. At this time these are financial planetary killers

Iceland Takes Over Kaupthing as Biggest Banks Fail (Update5)
By Tasneem Brogger

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Iceland’s government seized control of Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation’s biggest bank, completing the takeover of a financial industry that collapsed under the weight of foreign debt.

Iceland is guaranteeing Kaupthing’s domestic deposits and helping manage the banks to provide a “functioning domestic banking system,” the country’s Financial Supervisory

Glitnir Bank hf, Landsbanki Island hf and Kaupthing are unable to finance about $61 billion of debt, 12 times the size of the economy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Their collapse has affected 420,000 British and Dutch customers, and frozen assets held by universities, hospitals, councils and even London’s police force. The government is seeking a loan from Russia and may ask for aid from the International Monetary Fund to help guarantee deposits.

“This looks like a total collapse,” said Thomas Haugaard Jensen, an economist at Svenska Handelsbanken AB in Copenhagen. “It’ll take several years before the economy can start to return to growth.”

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you think the brothers are happy under $90? Keep in mind that when, not if, Pakistan implodes crude will rise $100 from wherever it is trading within 60 days.

OPEC to Meet Nov. 18, `Likely’ to Cut Oil Production (Update3)
By Grant Smith and Ayesha Daya

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — OPEC is “very likely” to cut oil production at its extraordinary meeting in Vienna on Nov. 18 because prices have fallen “dramatically,” the group’s President Chakib Khelil said today.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced the meeting today after the global financial crisis sent crude prices below $90 a barrel.

“The Organization is concerned about the deteriorating economic conditions with contagion risks,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat today said in an e-mailed statement. The gathering will “discuss the global financial crisis, the world economic situation and the impacts on the oil market.”

Qatar’s Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah and Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., had earlier told Bloomberg that they backed such a summit next month. OPEC had been scheduled to next meet on Dec. 17 in Algeria.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is looking forward and therefore rather meaningless to the present situation.

You can be absolutely sure the exchanges doing this will get themselves into big trouble if they don’t bankrupt the clearing house and the exchange. I am eager to see what financial responsibility will be taken to guarantee these new WMFDs. You cannot accurately value CRAP even if Geeks say they can.

Citadel, CME add platform for swaps
By James P. Miller | Chicago Tribune reporter
October 8, 2008

Chicago Mercantile Exchange parent CME Group Inc. and hedge-fund operator Citadel Investment Group LLC on Tuesday disclosed plans to create an electronic platform to trade the complex financial instruments known as credit-default swaps.

The platform would compete with a format being put together by a Chicago-based consortium of investment banks and swaps brokers, known as Clearing Corp.

The plans are designed to bring new standards and transparency to the credit-default swaps sector, which ran into difficulties because it has been largely unregulated.

Originally designed as a safe and simple form of bond-default insurance, swaps morphed into a speculative derivative product that investors used to make highly leveraged bets on companies. Parties to such agreements agreed to insure the other side of the swap against loss if the debt issuer defaulted, but because they considered the prospect of a default unlikely, many agreed to assume potential obligations far greater than their own worth.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Normally you would take this as cold war rhetoric, however since the USA manufactures more OTC derivatives by a factor of 100 and therein bankrupting the planet, it might just be taken seriously.

Russia supplies a lot of gas and energy to Euroland. When Pakistan implodes that is going to be a huge factor.

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev calls for Europe to freeze out US
The Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, has called on European leaders to create a new world order that minimises the role of the US.
By Adrian Blomfield in Moscow
Last Updated: 6:33PM BST 08 Oct 2008

Confident that a spat with Europe prompted by Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August was over, Mr Medvedev arrived in the French spa town of Evian determined to woo his fellow leaders into creating an anti-US front.

Gone was the kind of war time rhetoric that saw Mr Medvedev lash out at the West and characterise his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili as a “lunatic”. Instead Mr Medvedev spoke of a Russia that was “absolutely not interested in confrontation”.

Yet there was little doubt that Mr Medvedev was playing the divide-and-rule tactics of his predecessor Vladimir Putin by seeking to pit the United States against its European allies.

In a speech delivered to European leaders at a conference hosted by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France to discuss the international financial crisis, Mr Medvedev sought to show that the United States was at the root of all the world’s problems.

He blamed Washington’s “economic egotism” for the world’s financial woes and then accused the Bush administration of taking Europe to the brink of a new cold war by pursuing a deliberately divisive foreign policy. He also maintained that the United States was once again trying to return to a policy of containing Russia.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Westerners still don’t understand that when in the East you cannot oblige, you simply speak obligingly and then do whatever you want to.

North Korea reported ready to fire more missiles
Thursday, October 9 07:18 am

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea has deployed more than 10 missiles on its west coast for what appears to be an imminent launch, a South Korean newspaper said on Thursday, two days after the North fired two short-range missiles into the Yellow Sea.

It would be an unprecedented test if the North fired all of the surface-to-ship and ship-to-ship missiles, but intelligence sources quoted by the Chosun Ilbo paper said they thought the North may launch five to seven of them.

The North has forbidden ships to sail in an area in the Yellow Sea until October 15 in preparation for the launch, an intelligence source told the paper.

The North fired two missiles on Tuesday in routine military drills, South Korea’s defence minister said on Wednesday.

“If the North fires a large number of missiles, it would be difficult to see it as routine exercise,” the source was quoted as saying.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Anyone need some fertilizer for fall planting?

Lehman Brothers CDS Credit Event Auction
10th October 2008

On Friday 10th October 2008, the auction to settle the credit derivative trades for the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is to be held.

The results will be published here on the day of the auction. Initial results are due to be published at 10:30 NY Time and final results at 14:00 NY Time.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

These are the fellows that screwed it up.

How does the screwor fix the dilapidated screwed?

World finance chiefs heading for Washington for crunch talks
Oct 9 02:01 AM US/Eastern

Finance chiefs from the world’s richest nations are set to meet in Washington for a crucial but uncertain meeting at a time of unprecedented fear about the global financial system.

The Group of Seven meeting will bring together finance ministers and central bankers on Friday from the United States, Germany, Japan, France, Britain, Italy and Canada for some collective-thinking on the credit crunch and crashing stocks.

They are to be joined by counterparts from emerging markets including Brazil, Russia, India and China for an impromptu gathering of the expanded so-called G20 group.

The United States finds itself in a rare position of weakness, facing many allies that have been highly critical of its economic policy and regulatory system blamed for the problems.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I wonder if this fellow owns any junior metal shares…

Cops: Stamford Man Threatened Bank Over Financial Losses
Last Edited: Wednesday, 08 Oct 2008, 5:49 PM EDT
Created: Wednesday, 08 Oct 2008, 5:49 PM EDT

MyFoxNY.com  —  Cops say the Wall Street crisis has had a disturbing affect on one disgruntled investor. Police charged a 60-year-old man with threatening to blow up a bank branch in Stamford. Authorities say he was angry about his investment losses, so he walked into a branch and said he would kill everyone inside

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Concerning the shortage of the hard stuff, that is real. The paper gold market demonstrates that by the violence now on the buy side as well as the sell side.

Bullion will take out paper.

Gold, silver in short supply for those getting out of stocks
By Doug Page
Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 08, 2008

DAYTON – If you are thinking of diversifying your portfolio to include gold and silver, you may have to stand in line.

Richard Hana of Belmont Coin said his shop ran out of pure gold and silver coins two weeks ago.

“We people come looking for gold or silver, we take their name and when something comes in, we call them,” Hana said Wednesday, Oct. 8. “In a sense, it is already sold before it comes in the door.”

Hana said business is up 300 percent to 400 percent, particularly in the past weeks.

“People are scrambling to buy gold and silver,” said Ed Fritz of Centerville Coin & Jewelry Connection.

“There is huge shortage worldwide. People are pulling money out of economy, which has created a huge demand,” said Fritz, who has been in the business for 40 years.

Gold was selling around $910 a troy ounce by midday and silver at $11.70.

More…

Posted at 2:05 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear CIGAs,

Today is no different from yesterday. This thing remains “Out of Control”

Today’s so called new initiatives was not an intervention as it was proposed before as part of the 6 prior interventions.

Equity markets are saying, “We saw that one before.”

Gold is a paper play as part of trying to make today’s speaker look good.

Regards,
Jim

”Life’s tough… it’s even tougher if you’re stupid.”
— John Wayne

Dear Jim,

South African gold output is down 23% on a strike
.
Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild

South African Aug. Gold Output Falls 23% on Strike

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — South Africa, the world’s biggest producer of precious metals, said gold production fell 23 percent in August from a year earlier because of an electricity shortage and a protest against power price increases. “There was the Aug. 6 strike by Cosatu that affected mines quite heavily,” Alex Conradie, an economist at the Department of Minerals and Energy, said by telephone from Pretoria today. “The power issues also weren’t there a year ago.” The Congress of South African Trade Unions, known as Cosatu, protested against a 27.5 percent tariff increase by state-owned Eskom Holdings Ltd. to help fund a $44 billion expansion. The utility, which supplies 95 percent of South Africa’s power, started rationing supplies to mines this year because of a shortage of capacity. South Africa’s total mining output declined 6.2 percent and non-gold production fell 3.5 percent, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said today on its Web site. Mineral sales jumped 58 percent to 27.52 billion rand ($3.04 billion) in July from a year earlier, it said. Mineral sales data lag production data by a month. South Africa produces more than three-quarters of the world’s platinum and also turns out diamonds, coal, chrome and iron ore. South Africa was the world’s biggest gold producer for more than a century until last year when it was overtaken by China. Ageing ore bodies and safety-related mine stoppages cut 2007 output by 7.4 percent from 2006.