Posted at 7:54 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

According to news reports, the G7 on one weekend of mutual understanding will restructure the entire world monetary system and make the present consequences of more than one quadrillion one thousand one hundred forty-four trillion dollars of notional value rotten garbage go away.

A few of the characteristics of the problem that will be solved in two days of deliberation of the G7, but they mistakenly think they are still the Sun of the World around which all other countries orbit quietly and obediently. That alone has to give you some insight into the problem.

Behind the curtain of silence the subprime loan problem, better described as a global meltdown of credit and default derivatives, continues. The reason for this condition is an attempt to value that for which there is no value. It is spreading globally as a product of the limitless manufacturing PRIMARILY (above 75%) by USA financial entities.

Keep in mind that over the counter derivatives created between 1999 and 2007 generally have the following characteristics:

  1. Without regulation.
  2. Without listing on public exchanges.
  3. Without standards.
  4. Therefore not in the least bit transparent.
  5. Therefore without an open market of the bid/ask type.
  6. Dealt in by private treaty negotiations.
  7. Without a clearinghouse
  8. Unfunded without financial guarantee of any kind.
  9. Functioning as contracts of specific performance.
  10. Financial character or ability to perform is totally dependent on the balance sheet of the loser in the arrangement.
  11. Evaluated by computer assumptions made by geek, non market experienced mathematicians who assume religiously that all markets return to their normal relationships regardless of disruptions.
  12. Now in the credit and default category alone considered by accepted authorities as totaling more than USD$20 trillion in notional value.
  13. Notional value becomes real value when the agreement is forced to find a real market for ending the obligation which is how one says sell it.

The US dollar has improved based on the well crafted Urban Myth that Euroland has more problems than the USA. That like all great lies of history becomes true by experts, saying it loud and often. This method of the transition of nonsense into manufacturer truth is known as Spin. It was one of the most important imports from Germany in 1945. Some think this method of spin exceeded the imports of Dr. Von Braun.

The first plan crafted for the dollar recovery was experts assuring everyone that Euroland, as the source of this problem, clearly would have to have more problems than the USA, with a finger clearly pointing at UBS.

Next many interventions took place with fanfare galore. I love the picture of the Congressional personality high fiving on the passage of the bailout bill.

Since then the Secretary of the US treasury has announced investments in bankrupt banks four times, each time as a new intervention cure of problem.

The best of all might be the collapse of FASB this weekend as the overseers of fair accounting making values where there is none.

FASB to release fair value guidance this weekend
Friday October 10 2008

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) – The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which sets U.S. accounting rules, is likely to release formal guidance on mark-to-market accounting this weekend, it said at a meeting on Friday.

The board’s guidance is intended to formalize clarifications issued by FASB and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last month, which told companies they could rely on internal estimates, rather than fire-sale prices, to value assets trading in illiquid markets.

At a special meeting on Friday to consider the reforms, the FASB directed its staff to rework and clarify certain parts of its proposal, but stuck to the general concepts issued earlier.

FASB members said at the meeting they wanted to make sure companies were not completely disregarding market transactions in illiquid markets, but rather using them as one of many inputs.

More…

THE ABILITY TO GIVE VALUES TO VALUELESS INSTRUMENTS, CLEARLY KNOWN TO THE BANKS TO BE WORTHLESS IS NOT GOING TO MAKE INTER-BANK LENDING RECOVER.

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

  1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
  2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
  3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
  4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
  5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
  6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
  7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
  8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
  9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
  10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
  11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
  12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

Spin it, intervene in it, witness the media glee. Regardless of it all, gold will trade at $1200 and $1650, the dollar at .72, .62 and .52.

Regards, Jim

Posted at 3:54 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Thoughts for the Day:

The expectation for dramatic action by the G7 are extremely high. The options available to the G7 however are quite limited.

The consequences of all the limited options available to the G7 will create a modern day worldwide Weimar Republic.

The generally accepted theory that Europe will suffer worse than the US as a result of the OTC derivative collapse is a popular urban legend, yet the euro is off from $1.60 to $1.34 based on a carefully structured myth.

Japan says G-7 countries must look forward
The Associated Press
Published: October 11, 2008

WASHINGTON: Japan’s finance minister says that although the United States is the source of the financial “earthquake” roiling world markets, the world’s top economies should struggle together and not assign blame.

WASHINGTON: Japan’s finance minister says that although the United States is the source of the financial “earthquake” roiling world markets, the world’s top economies should struggle together and not assign blame.

Shoichi Nakagawa says the efforts Friday by the so-called Group of Seven countries are not the end of what they are prepared to do.

He provided few specific details.

But he said through an interpreter that the International Monetary Fund has to “fulfill its role” and strongly respond to the crisis. He says Japan will make further contributions if necessary.

He had said earlier in the day that Japan is set to propose that a joint fund be set up to give emergency loans to nations hit by the crisis.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Please read the following article.

Pakistan will turn out to be the most serious problem out there. It will be more disturbing and world changing than the present fact that there is no major money center bank, nor is there an international investment firm that is solvent.

Dexter Filkins: Pakistan’s long road to chaos
02:06 PM CDT on Friday, October 10, 2008

Hours after a truck bomber killed 53 people last month at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan’s interior minister laid responsibility for the attack on Taliban militants holed up in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA — the remote, wild region that straddles the border with Afghanistan.

“All roads lead to FATA,” Rehman Malik said.

If the past is any guide, Mr. Malik’s statement is almost certainly correct.
Also Online

But what Mr. Malik did not say was that those same roads, if he chose to follow them, would very likely loop back to Islamabad itself.

The chaos that is engulfing Pakistan appears to represent an especially frightening case of strategic blowback, one that has now begun to seriously undermine the American effort in Afghanistan. Tensions over Washington’s demands that the militants be brought under control have been rising, and last month an exchange of fire erupted between U.S. and Pakistani troops along the Afghan border. So it seems a good moment to take a look back at how the chaos has developed. It was more than a decade ago that Pakistan’s leaders began nurturing the Taliban and their brethren to help advance the country’s regional interests. Now they are finding that their home-schooled militants have grown too strong to control. No longer content to just cross into Afghanistan to kill American soldiers, the militants have begun to challenge the government itself.

“The Pakistanis are truly concerned about their whole country unraveling,” said a Western military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive.

That is a horrifying prospect, especially for Pakistan’s fledgling civilian government, its first since 1999. The country has a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons. The tribal areas, which harbor thousands of Taliban militants, are also believed to contain al-Qaeda’s senior leaders, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri.

More…

Posted at 7:06 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Stay the course or jump directly into the fire! That’s the soundest advice I can give you in this highly volatile market period. I told you that you would see volatility in gold beyond your wildest imagination. That statement usually went along with my warning that by margining anything gold you were putting yourself in great financial risk.

Today has to seal the veracity of that advice. Now get a hold of yourself. There is absolutely no way governments can make a problem of this size go away over a weekend. Those that question me on this issue are the same ones that laughed in 2000 when I said the growth of OTC derivatives was going to break the world. I told the lead director of Bear Stearns at the time that OTC derivatives were going to break his firm but the profits from them was simply too intoxicating for anyone to listen. Now I am asking you to listen.

Whatever is done to resolve this global financial crisis is going to inject incomprehensible amounts of new money into the global financial system.

Academics see the world as a ‘Picture In Time.” That means they are static thinkers who can’t perceive motion. Visionaries like Harry, Monty, Trader Dan & Tony are “Dynamic Thinkers.” At present, some academics are promoting the dumbest line I have ever heard. They say that all this new money going into the system is not monetary inflation because it is simply replacing all the money lost and therefore is a wash. That is part of the thinking pattern I am talking about and it’s dead wrong.

Dynamic thinkers know that the outflow of these losses has existed from the time of transaction and therefore prior to truer valuation as mandated by Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).

The day the FASB mandated truer value had existed for years but was not recognized as such because it was generally accounted for off balance sheet. Just because financial institutions tried to hide their losses, those capital depletions were already a growing cancer inside their organizations.

You can be certain that a repetition of Germany’s Weimar crisis is coming soon. There is nothing that can be done to make matters better – even if done by governments unilaterally in a unified action. In fact, such action will only serve to make matters worse.

The larger the financial action, the deeper the financial fall. The G7 still thinks they run the world. That should tell you something about the degree of what they can do.

Gold is honest money that will push all crappy paper out of its way. Why do you think so much intervention took place in gold in US market hours today?

All I can tell you is to stay the course or jump directly into the fire! If the heat in the kitchen is too hot for you, there is nothing I can do for you.

Regards,
Jim Sinclair

Posted at 3:17 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,

Merrill Lynch issued a big report today on the banking crisis.

Here are the main points:

  1. Everyone is waiting for the big government solution.
  2. Coordinated moves will not necessarily be effective, but it will be historic if it happens.
  3. We are barely past the halfway point of the credit down cycle.
  4. People will continue to crowd into treasuries Rosenberg (and in my opinion, gold).
  5. Corporate profits not yet impacted will go lower.
  6. Private sector interest rates are rising.

As Jim Sinclair has predicted in his model, Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, who is their chief economist corroborates my opinion. He states “It is truly a modern day depression, in our view- what else do you call it when an entire industry vanishes (investment banks) in less than a year: the ranks of the unemployed soar more than 30%, and nearly one in ten homeowners with a mortgage are either in arrears or foreclosure?”

Like us, he goes on to say “Now let’s not confuse that with the Great Depression – this is not the 1930’s all over again.”

More points:

  1. The government will have taken over many banks before this ends.
  2. Finally, Rosenberg states that the current money supply boost may not be inflationary. His argument is that the velocity of money is shrinking in the US and Europe, and that is clearly true.

Over the short term I agree with him. For this reason I stated a few weeks ago that the inflation rate would moderate for a few months.

It will moderate over the short term; long term is a different story. Once the velocity of money resumes its normal functioning, the massive amounts of money currently being pumped into the system worldwide will create a big inflationary bubble.  The inflation will not hit in the next few months, but it will be big when it does hit. As Jim Sinclair likes to say, “Weimar on Weimar.”

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Posted at 2:04 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Merrill got 20 cents on the dollar. Lehman got less than 10 cents.

Only numb-nuts can fluff that off.

Attorneys are in a bull market among the financial specialists.

What the OTC derivatives did not suck out of financial firms litigation will.

Lehman debt auction gives clue to potential losses
Friday October 10, 3:20 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer

Pricing for Lehman debt provides guidance on potential bank losses tied to credit swaps

NEW YORK (AP) — Sellers of insurance on bonds issued by bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are now likely to face demands that they pay out more than 91 cents on the dollar to buyers of those insurance contracts.

That’s the upshot of an unusual auction process Friday that established the price for defaulted Lehman debt, and in turn potential claims payouts on insurance protecting that debt, known as credit default swaps.

Certainly, some firms will take a hit because of the pricing, potentially amounting to billions of dollars in combined losses. In the Lehman auction, participants included most major financial firms from around the world. But it’s too early to tell which companies will be on the hook or for how much.

“Where this is helpful is this is the first real-world situation where we see how market participants handle settling CDS,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket Inc., a marketplace for trading illiquid assets.

In a best-case scenario, Silbert said, financial firms who sold CDS contracts would make their payouts in the coming weeks, have enough capital to cover all the positions, and take their losses and move on. In a worst-case scenario, sellers of the swaps would not have the cash to make the payments and would have to liquidate their assets to cover their positions.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today is paper gold. Here is what is real gold.

Germans Stockpiling Gold Amid Market Panic

German gold dealers have stopped taking new orders for the precious metal as demand has skyrocketed. Gold is seen as a safe investment during the market turmoil.

In uncertain economic times, Germans are dumping stocks and shares to take refuge in precious metal, accoring to a Wednesday article in a Berlin newspaper.

German gold dealers report running low on stocks of gold bars and coins.

Heiko Ganss, head of the Berlin branch of gold merchant Pro Aurum, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper that most gold traders were refusing new orders, as they couldn’t meet the current demand.

“Demand is running well above our capacity to supply,” he was quoted saying, saying retail banks in Germany were also unable to meet demand.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As goes Motors so goes the USA.

GM, Ford May Face Bankruptcy on Slowdown, S&P Says (Update3)
By Jeff Green and Marco Bertacche

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC may be forced into bankruptcy by slowing economies and dwindling U.S. auto sales, Standard & Poor’s analyst Robert Schulz said.

“Macro factors could overwhelm them at some point” even as the three biggest U.S. automakers vow to stick with their turnaround plans, Schulz, S&P’s lead automotive credit analyst, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York. The companies said they have no plans for a bankruptcy filing.

His assessment underscored the pressure on GM, Ford and Chrysler as the worsening global credit crisis makes it harder for buyers to get loans and dealers to finance their operations. S&P said yesterday it may further trim credit ratings for GM and Ford on forecasts for 2009 auto demand falling to the lowest level since 1992.

With all three companies working to boost cash, any bankruptcy filing would be a last resort, not a “strategic” decision, Schulz said.

“We don’t see that as something they would choose,” he said. Schulz said the “trigger” for a forced restructuring under bankruptcy protection would be based on the automakers’ ability to preserve liquidity as sales decline. Industrywide U.S. sales slid 27 percent last month, the most in 17 years.

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Posted at 12:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear Friends,

The good news is that Monty and Tony are right. The bad news is that the cure will deliver a Weimar beyond Weimar within one year.

Gold is the only ultimate SAFE HAVEN. It will not be denied.

The option below is an international commitment to monetize all bankruptcies without limit while placing the entire world into a zero interest rate lock.

This is Weimar beyond Weimar.

This will make Gold the ultimate safe haven as currencies become impossible to define. This will swing gold wildly .

Manipulation of gold today, as you have seen a thousand times, will not do much.

Gold is headed to $1000 after this $900 dance, down slightly and then blast through $1000 on its way to $1200 and $1650.

The planetary killers are the OTC manufacturers, yet this QUADRILLION PLUS dollar problem is never properly defined. It never will be either.

I wager you that JP Morgan, who is collecting and being federally funded, will weather the storm by some miracle.

Eventually the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized and revitalized, fails miserably after everything else, including what is below.

Your friend,
Jim

GOLD AND THE BANKING MELTDOWN

The realization (as pointed out in the Financial Times article today entitled “Rising CDS Action Increases the Strain”) that the Lehman Brothers’ failure could create a Credit Default Swap (CDS) loss of $400 billion for counterparties is sinking into the market. This realization is leading to a continuing sell off in stocks worldwide.

It is just now dawning on people in the financial community that the two Icelandic banks failing this week makes a total of six CDS issuers who have failed in one month.  CDS buyers have no idea if they will get there money back or if their CDS’s are still in effect.  It will be a huge accounting mess, trying to decipher who owes what, and to whom.

I am more certain now, that my prediction of at least a mild depression will be correct.

The derivative mess is now coming unraveled.  The warnings were many, and some were wise enough to listen.  Belatedly, those who did not listen are starting to realize what is going on.

We can get rallies in stocks at any time.  On rallies, all financial companies are in danger of continued dilution from stock offerings, and government bailouts, where the governments take warrants and dilute existing shareholders.  Similar to the meltdown of the internet mania stocks, financial stocks will continue to fall…and many will disappear altogether.

GOLD

It appears that things will continue to get uglier for quite some time.  In this environment, gold will have its “big day in the sun”.  Gold is already hitting all-time highs versus the Euro, British Pound, Australian and Canadian dollars, and many other currencies.

THIS IS A SOLUTION WE ENDORSE, LET US HOPE AND EVEN PRAY THAT IT IS ADOPTED

Financial Times
10/09/2008

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af349090-959a-11dd-aedd-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Posted at 11:41 AM (CST) by & filed under David Duval.

Dear Friends,

David Duval, the co-founder of jsmineset.com, an internationally-recognized mining author, writer and consultant/advisor, will be augmenting our complimentary coverage on this site with a minimum weekly column on minerals including precious metals such as gold and platinum along with the much-maligned base metals including copper and nickel. He will also comment on energy-related issues as they pertain to this critically important sector in the global economy.

David will rely on his broad range of contacts in the minerals industry to analyze industry trends and welcomes intelligence from readers who are actively involved in this important market segment, keeping in mind that a reporter’s commentary is only as good as his/her sources.

For the record, David is firmly in the longer term bull camp when it comes to metals and feels the years ahead will generate significant opportunities in this market segment for astute mineral explorers, mine developers and investors alike. He will also answer questions of general interest to readers in his column but will not under any circumstances comment on specific companies or make stock recommendations. Should you wish to provide any input on this editorial initiative, please contact him here.

Posted at 10:17 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold is about to VAULT UP.

I am reliably informed that the paper versus bullion gold war is lost by paper gold at a $930 close.

Gold will vault to slightly under $1000 then get pushed back, but not much at all. Directly after that we are off to $1200.

A Bank Holiday is moving from possible to PROBABLE.

  • Have you fully protected yourself?
  • Have you distanced yourself as much as possible away from financial agents holding your assets?
  • Have you gotten  paper certificates for your shares or became a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent?
  • Have you protected your retirement accounts the same way as your shares above but in the name of the retirement account and the trust holding them?
  • Have you closed your Money Market fund accounts regardless of what assurances your bankers offer?
  • Have you withdrawn from your Credit Union?
  • Have you exited your corporate retirement fund?
  • Do you have significant gold and related shares investments?

It is getting UGLY out there as each day an attempt to postpone a bank holiday fails. Almost every other day lately financial leaders of the world have announced new plans that were “the final answer” to the super-glued credit market. All these plans have had no effect. The Dow fell like a rock off a cliff.

This says all efforts have failed.

Libor Holds Central Banks Hostage as Credit Freezes (Update2)
By Gavin Finch and Ben Sills

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Danilo Coronacion oversees 15 percent of global coconut oil production at CIIF Oil Mills Group in the Philippines. These days, he spends a lot of time worrying about events half a world away in London. The name of his pain? Libor.

CIIF has more than $60 million of debt, or 70 percent of its working capital, linked to London interbank offered rates that have soared since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed on Sept. 15. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three-months in London jumped 23 basis points today to 4.75 percent, the highest level since December.

More…

Central Banks Fail to Alleviate `Logjam’ in Libor: Chart of Day
By Mark Gilbert and Gavin Finch

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Central-bank efforts to drive down money-market borrowing costs with coordinated interest-rate cuts are failing, according to Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed-income strategist at RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh.

“Central banks have pulled out all the stops and there’s no sign whatsoever that money-market strains are easing,” Stamenkovic said. “The logjam is going to remain in place for some time to come. Three-month rates and beyond are actually deteriorating.”

More…

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow Below 9,000; GM, Insurers Slide
By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 as higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending spurred concern carmakers, insurers and energy companies will be the next victims of the credit crisis.

More…