Posted at 7:06 PM (CST) by & filed under JSMineset Editor.

Dear CIGAs,

At long last we will soon be offering Version 2 of our Compendium. Version 2 will include all JSMineset articles from December 2005 onward. There will also be a number of extras included which we anticipate to include a DVD by Jim Sinclair. The cost is expected to be $80USD, which includes shipping, payable by credit card or cheque.

Version 1 of the Compendium, which covers articles from JSMineset’s inception to December 2005 and a separate technical analysis video disc by Jim Sinclair, will also be available once again in VERY limited numbers. If you have not already picked up a copy of this and want to you need to grab it as soon as it is available because this will likely be our last production run ever. The cost for this is expected to be $50USD, again with shipping included.

For those of you relatively new to the site, the compendiums are sold every few years to cover the operating costs of keeping a site like JSMineset up and running without having to make it a subscription based pay site. This is to cover costs only – any profit from these sales goes back directly to improving the site. If what we do here provides value to you purchase a compendium and help keep this site running. After all, you are getting a compilation of over 6000 articles that would total well over 15,000 pages if it was published in a book. Go to Amazon.com and try to find a better deal than that!

If you are interested in ordering the Compendium send an email to jscompendium@shaw.ca. We will add you to our updates list that will give you the option to purchase the set before everyone else. Who knows, maybe there will be another bonus if you sign up!

Regards,
Dan Duval
JSMineset Editor

Posted at 7:04 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

There is something so comforting about being missed.

IMGP2020

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Igor is WRONG!

It is NOT the US, it is the US dollar.

It is NOT in 2010, but rather between the first week of January 2011 and the third week of June 2012.

However, if he was by some unforeseen circumstance correct, geographically it would be rather good for the Cando and Euro between January 14th, 2011 and the third week of June 2012.

It is amazing what hyper-dollar- inflation can do for a resource based currency without a chronic deficit problem.

"As goes Motors, so goes the USA"

" The annual convention of Economic Experts was called off due to unforeseen circumstances."

As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010
By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW — For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It’s a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Thank you all you now bailed out OTC derivative manufacturers. You should consider Blackwater Security Services as you will most certainly need them, and they need the business.

Maybe Mr. Madoff should have hired Blackwater rather than asking for free services from the FBI.

Enjoy hiding the rest of your lives with your cancerous ill gotten gains at the cost of so many others’ well being. May you all rot in hell for eternity!

You are ignorant of the inescapable dire sufferings you have caused yourselves.

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings
By Heather Burke

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

“You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out,” Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “There are a number that are real causes for concern.”

More…

Posted at 5:57 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.

Dear CIGAs,

The article below is another indication of the fact that China in their traditional gradual manner is moving slowly away from the US dollar and towards convertibility for the Yuan for business settlements. The long term effect will be bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.

Respectfully yours,

Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

China to allow freer yuan trades
Thursday, 25 December 2008

China has said it is to allow some trade with its neighbours to be settled with its currency, the yuan.

The pilot scheme was announced in a package of measures designed to help exporters hit by the global downturn.

It means if the two parties to a trade have yuan available, they need not enter world exchange markets to pay.

Most of China’s foreign trade is settled in US dollars or the euro, leaving exporters vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.

The yuan is not yet a freely convertible currency.

Officials did not say when the trial scheme would start.

When it does, the yuan could be used to settle trade between parts of eastern China (Guangdong and the Yangtze River delta) and the territories of Hong Kong and Macau, and between south-west China (Guangxi and Yunnan) and the Asean group of countries (Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam).

More…

Posted at 3:36 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

As expected, the return of a larger number of traders to New York this morning saw the return of the usual selling gang which had been missing in action on Friday of last week. Gold had risen sharply in overnight trading before they took it down $17 off its best overnight levels pretty much erasing all of those gains. Action was centered around the technically significant $880 level which is once again proving to be very formidable resistance (bullion banks). Gold did manage to hold onto all of its gains from its low volume session of Friday however which is quite impressive. As a result, the breakout from the former consolidation range of $830 – $850 must be respected as the bullish flag or pennant formation was confirmed by today’s ability to retain price strength. Still – the ability of the bullion banks to knock prices back so easily is not particularly enchanting.

To give you an idea just how low the volume was last Friday and why I was cautious about reading too much into the price action, the total number of contracts changing hands was 25,513. That is for all of the contracts combined. Prior to the onset of the holiday trade, volume for the month of November was averaging over 150,000 per day! That is why one wants to see confirmation of low volume breakouts. All too often they turn out to be traps.

Gold is however trading solidly above its 100 day moving average on the continuous daily price chart and has once again recaptured the 200 day moving average – that is no mean achievement. When a market is trading solidly above both the 100 day and the 20 day moving averages, all the bears have going for them at that point is to hope for “overbought” readings since the technical price charts are decidedly against them.

Technically support should show up near the $860 level and then again near $852 on any downside moves. Today’s failure to maintain most of the overnight gains will be viewed by sellers as a green light to move back in and by some short term bulls as a signal to book profits and exit. Resistance is first at today’s session high near $890 and then at the even number of $900. A larger battle will be fought at $920 since it is the point of focus on the downsloping trendline resistance from the weekly gold chart which just so happens to also correspond with horizontal resistance drawn on that same weekly chart.

There were 52 deliveries assigned today in the December gold contract bringing the total for the month to 1.3615 million ounces – a very respectable number considering the registered category is still showing a  bit over 2.8 million ounces. That is not all that far from being half of the gold available for delivery against the Comex futures contracts. There are 84 contracts left open in the December so unless we get some last minute new buyers who want to take delivery, total gold taken will come in a bit less than 1.38 million ounces. Gold traders should not be under any illusions however – unless they are willing to take possession of Comex gold through the delivery process further pulling down the stocks, the paper gold market is still the arena of the bullion banks. The have nothing to fear from paper longs who lack the teeth to take the metal from them.

By the way, gold priced in terms of British Pounds made another brand new all time high at today’s London PM Fix coming in at 601.798. That puts it very close to Euro-priced gold which came in at 616.551. The Pound and the Euro are trading very close to the same level against the US Dollar on the Foreign Exchange markets meaning that gold priced in both currency units is going to be fairly close until we see these currencies separate themselves somewhat.

Just as the bullish pennant formation in the gold chart was confirmed to the upside today, so too the bearish pennant formation in the USDX chart was also confirmed to the downside. It is now trading below its 100 day moving average with all of the other major moving averages, the 10, 20, 40 and 50 days all moving down. The recent low in the continuous chart near the 78.80 level becomes quite critical for the prospects of the Dollar as we move into the New Year.

As we move into the end of the year, some traders with profits are going to be tempted to take them either to improve their year-end trading performance or as is the case of a larger majority, to attempt to reduce somewhat the horrific losses that they have incurred in the commodity markets this year. After all, if you are down 20% on the year and you have made some very good gains in the last few weeks, why not take the money off the table, cut your final year end losses a bit and come into the new year down only 10% or so as you make ready for a fresh start in 2009. In other words, get ready for some further volatility to close out the trading year.

Crude oil got a bit of a bounce today as it perilously clings to support just above the $35 level. Shorts are probably booking some profits in there as well.

Bonds moved higher once again as they simply refuse to break down even given the parabolic type of blow off run we have been witnessing in that pit. The bubble still lives. Bond bulls are taking profits but guys who missed out on the leg up are using any price weakness to get in which is why this market simply will not go down and stay down. Something will have to occur which changes the mind set in the bonds before the longs throw in the towel.

The HUI has run into selling near the 300 level with the XAU encountering the same near the 120 level. Both are showing signs of potential short term tops in those regions. For the uptrend in the HUI to remain in force, it will need to hold above the 260 level on any price retreat while the XAU will need to maintain its footing above the 108- 110 level. Such price action would indicate a consolidation trade is occurring with an attempt to build another base of support. Failure to hold the previously mentioned levels would allow to bears to growl that the recent upleg was nothing but a corrective rebound in a larger downtrend. The weekly chart in both the HUI and the XAU looks much improved but prices will need to quickly clear 300 in the HUI and 120 in the XAU to keep the charts friendly.

Click chart to enlarge today’s action in Gold as of 12:30pm CDT with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

December2908Gold1230pmCDT.jpg

Posted at 4:15 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Here is my New Years gift to you, my extended family.

There is no way that the CONSEQUENCES of the largest creation of paper money since it was invented can be avoided or even modified. Odds now favor Alf Field’s price objective.

January 14th 2011 to June 21st, 2012:

The best part of this gift is not the one you already know, which is January 14th 2011, but rather the date that a new currency form will replace the form of the US dollar as you know it today which is the third week of June 2012.

Don’t laugh! Write this down and do not forget about it!

Happy (sort of) New Year,
Jim

Posted at 3:15 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do not for a moment think the Pakistan/India problem will just morph away. It will not.

Do not believe that mistakes will not occur in the Israeli strategy backed by the US lead by President Elect Obama.

It is possible that before retaliating you need to decide if you are prepared to really go all the way and what such a decision means. Tit for tat is a waste of time.

Turkey plays the role of victim in this unwinding scenario.

As the following article points out:

“He retired from the C.I.A. in 2006 after 29 years, and no longer has access to the nation’s most sensitive information. But his career as an analyst is far from over. As an influential terrorism adviser on President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, he dispenses counsel to the administration-in-waiting on some of the thorniest problems it will face: as varied as the hunt for Al Qaeda’s senior leaders like Mr. Zawahri, the likelihood of another attack on American soil, and how to stave off nuclear Armageddon between India and Pakistan.”

Behind Analyst’s Cool Demeanor, Deep Anxiety Over American Policy

By MARK MAZZETTI

Published: December 26, 2008

WASHINGTON – BRUCE RIEDEL was a 28-year-old Middle East analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency on Oct. 6, 1981, the day a band of gunmen assassinated President Anwar el-Sadat of Egypt during a military parade in Cairo.

Within hours of the attack, Mr. Riedel was summoned to the agency’s seventh floor to brief William J. Casey, the irascible C.I.A. director. Over the next several months, he began compiling a dossier about the attack — what he calls the “birth of the global jihad” — and about the emergence of a cerebral Egyptian physician named Ayman al-Zawahri.

He retired from the C.I.A. in 2006 after 29 years, and no longer has access to the nation’s most sensitive information. But his career as an analyst is far from over. As an influential terrorism adviser on President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, he dispenses counsel to the administration-in-waiting on some of the thorniest problems it will face: as varied as the hunt for Al Qaeda’s senior leaders like Mr. Zawahri, the likelihood of another attack on American soil, and how to stave off nuclear Armageddon between India and Pakistan.

Mr. Riedel is one of a chorus of terrorism experts who see the terrorist network’s base in the mountains of Pakistan as America’s greatest threat, and perhaps the biggest problem facing Mr. Obama’s new team.

He speaks angrily about what he calls a savvy campaign by Pakistan’s government under President Pervez Musharraf to fleece Washington for billions of dollars even as it allowed Al Qaeda to regroup in Pakistan’s tribal lands.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I am sure that the present Administration has no teeth in this situation.

Bush, Saudi King talk amid Israel-Gaza bloodshed

CRAWFORD, Texas (AFP) — Saudi King Abdullah told US President George W. Bush by telephone on Saturday that major countries must take action to halt Israel’s attacks on Gaza, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe had said earlier that the king had called Bush, who was preparing to usher in 2009 on his Texas ranch, to discuss "the Middle East" and had declined to offer further details.

But SPA reported that King Abdullah had discussed "the Israeli aggression against Gaza" and the "implications of continuing Israel’s policies of blockade, occupation and torture against the Palestinian people all over the Occupied Territories."

The king also called for "the major countries to shoulder their responsibilities to stop this Israeli attack and save the lives of the innocent and remaining infrastructure in the Palestinian territories."

Abdullah made the call after a meeting in Riyadh with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas.

More…

Posted at 2:46 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear Friends,

I suggest this article below be put on your bulletin board where you track the most serious trends in geopolitical events. Between now and 2012 Pakistan packs the punch. Israel makes an error in judgement and Turkey is victimized.

Newfound Riches Come With Spiritual Costs for Turkey’s Religious Merchants
By SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: December 25, 2008

NYT2008122516465848C

Ferhan Kadiroglu played with her 3-year-old daughter, Ayse, in their Istanbul home. Their family is part of Turkey’s powerful new class of wealthy Muslims.

ISTANBUL — Turkey’s religious businessmen spent years building empires on curtains, candy bars and couches. But as observant Muslims in one of the world’s most self-consciously secular states, they were never accepted by elite society.

Now that group has become its own elite, and Turkey, a more openly religious country. It has lifted an Islamic-inspired political party to power and helped make Turkey the seventh largest economy in Europe.

And while other Muslim societies are wrestling with radicals, Turkey’s religious merchant class is struggling instead with riches.

“Muslims here used to be tested by poverty,” said Sehminur Aydin, an observant Muslim businesswoman and the daughter of a manufacturing magnate. “Now they’re being tested by wealth.”

Some say religious Turks are failing that test, and they see the recent economic crisis as a lesson for those who indulged in the worst excesses of consumption, summed up in the work of one Turkish interior designer: a bathroom with faucets encrusted with Swarovski crystal, a swimming pool in the bedroom, a couch rigged to rise up to the ceiling by remote control during prayer. “I know people who broke their credit cards,” Ms. Aydin said.

But beyond the downturn, no matter how severe, is the reality: the religious wealthy class is powerful now in Turkey, a new phenomenon that poses fresh challenges not only to the old secular elite but to what good Muslims think about themselves.

More…

Posted at 2:41 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

Thinking of your commentary on "Hedge funds gain access to $200bn Fed aid" and talking of extreme outrage:

Probably the most extensive collateral damage caused by unregulated credit and the fraud of fiat money has been the gratuitous ruin of many valuable companies and interdependent communities. These companies and communities have, contrary to self-seeking argument, mutually and efficiently evolved to best succeed in ”real world” markets. As far as possible they have avoided debt but have now bankrupted or been taken over and in an illusion of success, displayed as trophies on the walls of vacuous financial organizations as collateral to fund ever expanding market share and valueless monetary turnover that is re-circulated to create the illusion of profit and accelerating personal wealth.

This is a ponzi scheme with many layers and illusions that is becoming progressively more visible in its terminal phase at the point of exponential growth. It is not only destructive to the real economy but also of the ability to produce goods, services and vital social capital that in the end undermines a nation’s well being and stability.

CIGA Peter

Dear Peter,

Adam Smith knew as much about economics as he did about life, but for public consumption the "Unseen Hand" sold better to those that thrived for profit.

It doesn’t matter if Adam Smith knew why he played this roll of speaking truth to those who had ears to hear even if they did not know what the true attraction really was.

Peter, be assured that underneath all of this there is a public justice of another variety that will not be denied. It is an "Unseen Hand" that sets things unfailingly into balance.

Hedge Fund managers that have sewn havoc and destruction may feel invulnerable, too connected to be held accountable and too rich to be touched by mere mortals. These elitists would be well advised to study the writings of Adam Smith and to look over their shoulders often because they are the only ones who do not know their days of glory are behind them, their contacts are spent and the unseen hand is now firmly around their neck.

Strength lies in knowledge. Weakness pretends in being connected, unwisely.

"Hurricane Carter" knew the truth. He knew those who were the culprits.

So do I.

All the best,
Jim