Posted at 12:30 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

To answer Marc’s question about India buying gold, the simple answer is yes they will buy more gold.

The full answer is more complicated. As you know, most gold jewelry buyers in India are the poor and they are price sensitive.

Indians with money usually buy gold bullion or coins in the US or in Europe, because they are worried about taxes and capital controls in India.

So we will see Indian jewelry buying within India remaining price sensitive and total gold buying will be helped by wealthy Indians buying abroad. The government runs deficits so the Indian government does not have a lot of money to buy gold, but they generally favor gold.

When they start to run surpluses I would expect them to be a gold buyer

Respectfully yours,

Monty Guild

Hi Jim,

The dollar has served us well and its passing is so acknowledged accordingly.

Il Silenzio provides that mark of respect.

This is as magnificent a rendition of Taps. This version is played by a young girl at an Andre Rieu concert.


Click here to listen to the WMA audio file…

Dear Al,

Yes, respect is always called for. Playing Taps is quite appropriate.


Hello Jim,

A friendly reminder to the delayed gold buyers, we have a cut-off date for Gold/Silver purchases on May 27th. The next cutoff date will be June 26th. Those who wish to take delivery before the end of this quarter don’t have much time left. We can get COMEX gold at spot price, delivered and insured for about $12 an ounce (give or take the miles from NYC). We have also become sellers of legal tender gold and silver coins and can beat most dealers prices. Get protected or get out of the way, and as always, Happy Trades To You!

Fort Wealth Trading Co. LLC
866-443-0868 ext 104

Dear Jim,

I am certain that someday soon as we already know this headline may read “Chinese gold buying ‘boosting African mining sector.’


Chinese gold buying ‘boosting Australian mining sector’
The news feeds on this site are independently provided by Adfero Limited © and do not represent the views or opinions of the World Gold Council.
Tuesday, 19th May 2009 (78 views)

Increased gold buying by China is dominating the Australian mining industry, a new report has claimed.

According to Companies and Markets, Chinese companies are purchasing stakes in Australian assets as “foreign investment rules are liberal and encourage inward investment”.

A number of approaches from Chinese businesses for Australian assets are being considered by the government, including a AU$2.6 billion (£1.3 billion) bid for Oz Minerals by China Minmetals.

The Australia Mining Report for the second quarter of 2009 also revealed that the country remains a “world leader” in the industry and is the third-largest producer of gold behind China and South Africa.

Some of the biggest names in the global mining sector operate in Australia and Companies and Markets predicted that “the election of a more business-friendly liberal government” that took place in September 2008 will benefit the industry.

Meanwhile, John Burbank, founder of Californian global hedge fund Passport Capital, recently forecast that China will purchase higher levels of the precious metal in the future, as its gold/gross domestic product percentage is currently relatively low at around 0.8 per cent, Manual of Ideas reported.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Courtesy of CIGA Barry.

China on the rise once more across the East
If any more evidence of China’s steady ascent towards Asian regional dominance was needed, the climax of Sri Lanka’s war has provided the proof.
By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor
20 May 2009

An ally of Beijing has fought a bitterly controversial conflict to a final victory, while shrugging off international protests along the way. India, the other Asian giant, is only 50 miles from Sri Lankaacross the waters of the Palk Straits, yet it has been shown to have far less influence on its neighbour than China.

Through a combination of strategic investments in seaports and pipelines, along with direct financial and military support for friendly governments, China is building a web of influence across South Asia. Many of Beijing’s immensely ambitious projects are years away from fruition, yet the repercussions of these ventures are already being felt.

In Sri Lanka, Beijing began constructing a port in Hambantota in 2007 and the scheme is scheduled for completion in 2022. This forms the basis of China’s alliance with President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government and helps explain the diplomatic support Beijing gave Sri Lanka during the war against the Tamil Tigers.

The official line is that Hambantota is only a “commercial” trading venture and the facility will handle civilian shipping and nothing else. “Any attempt to distort the facts would be invalid,” said Ma Zhaoxu, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.


Hi Jim,

Sorry to be pesky. I‘ll be brief.

You said today: “In summary It Is Now and all positions should be held, putting trading on HALT.”

Are you saying to hold onto share positions without trading anymore? No more selling 1/3rd into strength?



Yes, the 1/3 sale would be executed at much, much higher prices, especially among those gold shares of merit with the largest short positions. Let’s assume that I am correct (I do) then you can be sure$1224 and $1650 is in the offering. Would you want to sell too soon?

Do you see my point Gil?

You are not a pest. You are a man seeking clarity. I am here to try and provide that. You honor me by asking.


Posted at 10:30 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

It is graduation time for all those who have applied themselves.

The answer to understanding markets is always a combination of indicators, systems, disciplines and experience.

Today things are more difficult because whatever you are doing from investment, trading or corporate management is akin to swimming in a sea of organized crime in which the police are compromised.

Alf has the prices nailed.

Armstrong has the Business Sentiment correct.

The primary criterion for dollar strength/weakness is Business Sentiment concerning the USA.

The primary criterion for the gold price is the US dollar in the inverse.

With relationships understood, next you have the means of controlling decisions.

The means of controlling decision-making is the basic TA I have taught you on this site. This was given to you so that you might enjoy and prosper in major moves.

Yesterday’s email to you drew attention to the relationships. Now handle the information market-wise by using your basic TA tools.

Respectfully yours,

Posted at 3:11 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Extended Family,

This is without a doubt the most important piece of information we will present to you this year. What you will read ahead addresses the pivot point of the literally thousands of missives we have posted here on telling you this is coming. It is happening here and now. Be prepared and stay strong.

We are approaching the beginning of the final drama in this unfolding OTC derivative meltdown. This is the beginning period for the 3rd leg of Alf Field’s correct analysis.

This is the re-acceleration of the long down wave in Martin Armstrong’s Business Cycle analysis. This is the approach of the acceleration of the gold price into my price objective of $1650 by January 14, 2011.

Click chart to enlarge in PDF formatMay2009001.jpg

Sure the US dollar will be defended at the .8100 level that has been put out there as support by the major investment banks TA departments, but it will not reverse what is now in place.

Yes, the COMEX gang is too short of gold for it to launch here, so the battle to prevent it will be Titanic, yet fail miserably and soon.

You can see the shorts of the junior gold shares doing everything known to mankind, from dirty tricks to pounding on any small gold reaction to destroy share prices, but they too will fail miserably and soon.

All the paper gold and share demons will accomplish is an increase in their short positions. They will not get the panic selling follow through to cover that they so desperately want.

Listen to Alf Fields in 2005:

We are on the cusp of Alf Field’s 3rd Wave of his gold price projection. It will follow directly along the lines of the Armstrong timing as a result of Sentiment in the US dollar moving into its major down leg NOW.

Major ONE up from $256 to approximately $750 (a Fibonacci 3 times the $255 low)
Major TWO down from $750 to $500 (a serious decline of 33%);
Major THREE up from $500 to $2,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $2,500 to $2,000 (another serious decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,000 to $6,000 (also a 3 fold increase, same as ONE)

A case can be made for an 8 fold increase in Major FIVE, which would continue the Fibonacci sequence 3, 5, 8. You can do the math if you like, but the fact is you can pick your own number for the gain in Major FIVE. Three times the low of $2,000 was actually the conservative expectation, producing a bull market peak target of $6,000.

Martin Armstrong’s business sentiment cyclical analysis suggest that on or slightly after May 18th the underlying problems that have been overshadowed by media reports of green shoots will again impact the mind of the marketplace.

That is in perfect accord with the US dollar taking out major support in the .8100 – .8200, giving respect to the fact that major Forex traders are convinced that .8100 means something that it does not.

You ask why now?

The following chart of “The Recession Hits the Treasury” is the revelation of the impact of the Formula that now has become apparent to major money sources.

In summary It Is Now and all positions should be held, putting trading on HALT.

Posted at 9:34 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

The fact that the money and power are leaving for China has escaped everyone in our leadership. They are totally blind to this. They cannot conceive that we have given up the lead to anyone, because we are so perfectly good. This is called Hubris and is a tool of the Gods to destroy any who dare to become Godlike.


Dear CIGAs,

Gold is a currency. In fact gold is the ultimate currency. It cannot be expanded to meet the needs of politicians as can paper currency.

Under .8200 the wheels of hyperinflation start to turn.
Under .7200 the impact of hyperinflation is in Main Street.
Under .5200 Zimbabwe Economics reaches the USA.

Gold and the USD as trend events are attached inversely at the hip. Hedge funds have played with that relationship but cannot change it.

Central Banks have NO tools that can drain the liquidity that has been injected into the INTERNATIONAL system over the last two years. Those in Europe that have been more conservative will be less effected even thought they are now derided for their heel dragging.

Asia will rule the economic world.

DJ MARKET TALK: Comex Gold Closes Higher As Dollar Eases

1742 GMT [Dow Jones] – Comex gold recouped some of the previous day’s pullback. "Part of it is the retreating dollar we are seeing today," said Carlos Sanchez, precious-metals analyst with CPM Group. "We were heading toward $1.35 [for the euro versus the dollar], but now are slightly back above $1.36."

Also, gold managed some technical strength when it bounced right back after an overnight dip below its 10-day moving average, says Charles Nedoss, senior account manager and metals analyst with Peak Trading Group. Just ahead of gold’s close, this average stood at $921.30 an ounce. June gold settled up $5 to $926.70. Gold seemed to take its cue from the dollar since equities, which had dictated much of the metal’s direction lately, were largely flat, Nedoss adds. (ALS)


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Governments have never been able to operate or profitably influence the operation of businesses.

Few in leadership have ever operated at risk businesses, yet nationalization (their business management) in a functional sense has its tentacles now everywhere.

Once you have accepted money or a benefit from the government you have sold your soul.

There is no refund policy.

Fannie and Freddie in ‘critical’ condition
Regulator says companies still suffer from severe operational and financial weaknesses. Recruiting executives also tough.
By Tami Luhby, senior writer
Last Updated: May 18, 2009: 4:08 PM ET

NEW YORK ( — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, charged with helping lead the nation out of its housing crisis, are facing "critical" financial problems, federal regulators said Monday.

The companies suffer from severe financial, operational and compliance weaknesses, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said a report to Congress detailing its annual examinations of the firms. Taken over by the government in September, Fannie and Freddie are not able to operate without federal assistance.

"With new senior management teams, each enterprise has made strides in remediating problems," the agency said. "But they still face numerous significant challenges including building and retaining staff and correcting operational and credit management weaknesses that led to conservatorship."

Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) play a vital role in the national housing market, accounting for a combined share of 73% of mortgage originations in the second half of 2008. They also serve central roles in the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention plan.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Green shoots are shot and over for the next seven months of down leg. The point here is what do you think 2000 dealerships devolving into nothingness means in an economy? The 2000 dealerships does not include all that Ford is doing likewise without media coverage.

OTC derivatives are at fault for this and nothing else. What would have been a mild four year recession is now a multi decade disaster.

The OTC derivative dealers have all been bailed out and are as rich as cream, safe in their Greenwich, CT mansions. The OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors have become billionaires while this poor guy and a multitude like him are going straight down the drain. Take this story and times it by 2000, then think of the additional fallout the domino effect has in each town and village. Car dealerships are not small potatoes.

Housing and Autos were the drivers of the big boom of the 2000s. They are both the victims of OTC derivatives and now the downward spiral drivers of a disaster yet to be admitted to as the cause is still out there flourishing.

Nothing at all has been done to help this fellow and therefore nothing has been done to help the economy outside of more fancy paper shuffling of the Wall Street ilk mucking up everything it touches as usual.

God help us all.

Letter from a Dodge dealer
May 19, 2009

letter to the editor

My name is George C. Joseph. I am the sole owner of Sunshine Dodge-Isuzu, a family owned and operated business in Melbourne, Florida. My family bought and paid for this automobile franchise 35 years ago in 1974. I am the second generation to manage this business.

We currently employ 50+ people and before the economic slowdown we employed over 70 local people. We are active in the community and the local chamber of commerce. We deal with several dozen local vendors on a day to day basis and many more during a month.  All depend on our business for part of their livelihood.  We are financially strong with great respect in the market place and community.  We have strong local presence and stability.

I work every day the store is open, nine to ten hours a day. I know most of our customers and all our employees.  Sunshine Dodge is my life.

On Thursday, May 14, 2009 I was notified that my Dodge franchise, that we purchased, will be taken away from my family on June 9, 2009 without compensation and given to another dealer at no cost to them. My new vehicle inventory consists of 125 vehicles with a financed balance of 3 million dollars. This inventory becomes impossible to sell with no factory incentives beyond June 9, 2009. Without the Dodge franchise we can no longer sell a new Dodge as "new," nor will we be able to do any warranty service work. Additionally, my Dodge parts inventory, (approximately $300,000.) is virtually worthless without the ability to perform warranty service. There is no offer from Chrysler to buy back the vehicles or parts inventory.

Our facility was recently totally renovated at Chrysler’s insistence, incurring a multi-million dollar debt in the form of a mortgage at Sun Trust Bank.



This is beyond imagination! My business is being stolen from me through NO FAULT OF OUR OWN. We did NOTHING wrong.

This atrocity will most likely force my family into bankruptcy.  This will also cause our 50+ employees to be unemployed. How will they provide for their families?  This is a total economic disaster.


I beseech your help, and look forward to your reply. Thank you.


George C. Joseph
President & Owner
Sunshine Dodge-Isuzu

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

FASB will certainly go to hell for this. There is no redemption for canning the mark to market requirements.

FASB tightens off-balance-sheet loan rules

WASHINGTON_The board that sets U.S. accounting standards on Monday moved to end companies’ use of a device that allowed them to park hundreds of billions of dollars in loans off their balance sheets without capital cushions and has been blamed for helping stoke banks’ losses in the housing boom.

The change will tighten the use of so-called "qualifying special purpose entities" by requiring companies to report to regulators the loans contained in them and to increase their capital reserves in proportion as a cushion against potential losses.

It was the lack of disclosure and absence of capital supporting ballooning subprime mortgage loans in these special entities that aggravated the massive losses sustained by banks, regulators say.

The change by the Financial Accounting Standards Board could result in about $900 billion in assets being brought onto the balance sheets of the nation’s 19 largest banks, according to federal regulators. The information was provided by Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 17 other institutions during the government’s recent "stress tests," an analysis designed to determine which banks would need more capital if the economy worsened.

In its quarterly regulatory filing earlier this month, Citigroup said the rule change could have "a significant impact" on its financial statements. Citigroup estimated it would result in the recognition of $165.8 billion in additional assets, including $90.5 billion in credit card loans.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I would pay a reasonable premium for this assurance.

$4bn Swiss Gold ETF: Paranoia premium or plain expensive?
By Rob Mackinlay 19 May 2009

One of Europe’s largest and fastest growing physical gold ETFs is facing an industry backlash after suggesting that its higher trading costs are justified because its product is ‘safer’, in a case that throws the spotlight on charges paid by investors for different funds holding the same underlying asset.

The performance of physical gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) should not deviate much as they all aim to track the same underlying commodity and many of the products charge the same 0.4 per cent annual management fee.

This leaves investors with a handful of factors to consider when choosing a physical gold ETF, including trading costs and security. For buy and hold investors – and the many extremely risk averse investors buying these products – security is the key. For investors looking for quick returns, the trading cost will be the decider.

Until now investors would not have seen these two issues as being in conflict. But statements by Swiss ETF provider ZKB have raised the stakes by suggesting that this is indeed the case – security versus trading costs – and the ETF industry is now embroiled in a debate over the merits of the argument.

With many physical gold ETF investors paranoid about fundamental security issues (Could owning gold be banned? Hedge fund warning) anything that eases their minds could command a premium. One of Europe’s largest and fastest growing gold-backed ETFs, the Swiss  ZKB Gold ETF, has sparked a heated debate by suggesting that its product does just this, and that it is safer than its peers.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This article is right on the money.

It is too bad, but the West defines everything according to their reality. It is unfortunate that the West’s reality has no application at all in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.

U.S. stirs a hornet’s nest in Pakistan
MAY 18, 2009

PARIS — Pakistan finally bowed to Washington’s angry demands last week by unleashing its military against rebellious Pashtun tribesmen of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) — collectively mislabelled "Taliban" in the West.

The Obama administration had threatened to stop $2 billion US annual cash payments to bankrupt Pakistan’s political and military leadership and block $6.5 billion future aid, unless Islamabad sent its soldiers into Pakistan’s turbulent NWFP along the Afghan frontier.

The result was a bloodbath: Some 1,000 "terrorists" killed (read: mostly civilians) and 1.2 million people — most of Swat’s population — made refugees.

Pakistan’s U.S.-rented armed forces have scored a brilliant victory against their own people. Too bad they don’t do as well in wars against India. Blasting civilians, however, is much safer and more profitable.

Unable to pacify Afghanistan’s Pashtun tribes (a.k.a. Taliban), a deeply frustrated Washington has begun tearing Pakistan apart in an effort to end Pashtun resistance in both nations. CIA drone aircraft have so far killed over 700 Pakistani Pashtun. Only 6% were militants, according to Pakistan’s media, the rest civilians.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Yes, another present from our OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors as an increase in crime comes with increased unemployment and a decreased police presence.

Last updated: 9:03 am May 19, 2009

Downtown Manhattan, the city’s party mecca, has been hit by an alarming spike in vicious street violence.

Assaults in Greenwich Village lead the frightening upturn, with a whopping 43 percent increase so far this year compared with the same period in 2008.

"I’ve never seen it like this before — never, ever," said G. Simon Chafik, a female photographer who has lived in Manhattan for 15 years.

"I’m a big New Yorker. New York is one of the safest cities. [But] I’m beginning to question that."

Other hot Manhattan neighborhoods tainted by the crime wave include TriBeCa, with a nearly 17 percent jump, and Gramercy, which has seen a 24 percent increase in assaults.

The danger zones also include the East Village from East 14th Street to Houston Street and the East River to Broadway, which has seen a 27.7 percent rise, from 47 to 60 assaults.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Devil is always hiding in the details, but a nice headline to see in the Wall Street Journal anyway.

China Gold Reserves May Back Yuan Internationalization-Report
MAY 17, 2009, 10:54 P.M. ET

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)–China’s gold reserves may serve as backing for the yuan as Beijing promotes its use overseas, said Zheng Lianghao, managing director of the World Gold Council’s Far East division, the Shanghai Securities News reported Monday.

Zheng, who was speaking at a forum over the weekend, said increasing gold holdings would provide China with a useful hedge as the dollar faced the possibility of depreciation, according to the report.

In late April, the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Hu Xiaolian, the head of China’s foreign exchange agency, as saying China’s gold reserves had risen 454 metric tons since 2003 to 1,054 tons.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

South Florida, the crime capital of the USA (outside of Washington) fires police, keeps politicians?

The Long Layoff Arm of the Law
The Broward Sheriff’s Office told 177 employees Monday that their services were no longer needed
Updated 5:45 PM EDT, Mon, May 18, 2009

Times are so hard, even the lawman has had to swing a heavy ax.

The Broward Sheriff’s Office notified 177 employees on Monday that they will be laid off as part of a cost-cutting measure to meet the 2010 budget. The employees’ last day will be July 31.

The cuts include 48 current deputies currently patrolling the streets. In total, BSO is eliminating 264 positions, 77 of which were tabbed for deputies, said BSO spokesman Jim Leljedal. Some of the positions were vacant.

Broward Sheriff Al Lamberti warned county commissioners it would come to this when they asked him to cut $54 million from his budget. BSO still employees over 5,000 people, including law enforcement and fire rescue personnel, but losing so many can’t help but have a detrimental impact on service and safety.

One old saying goes, you never miss a cop until you need one. Well these cuts will put that adage to the test.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The filth coming out of pay to play is going to be topped only by the horrid condition of what is left of the asset value of pension funds not required to mark to market.

How Pension Placement Agent Exploited Political Ties
By Martin Z. Braun and Gillian Wee

May 18 (Bloomberg) — After raising more than $1 billion for Democratic candidates, Eileen Kotecki transformed herself into a marketer for hedge funds and private-equity firms, eventually racking up more than $6.5 billion in sales.

Within weeks of wrapping up the 2000 campaign, Kotecki’s own attorneys said later in a lawsuit, she had begun “seeking to exploit” an “impressive network of contacts” gained in part from “extensive experience as a political fundraiser” to sell investment services to public pension funds and endowments.

Taking advantage of political work for private gain isn’t illegal. Yet Kotecki’s career shift from former Vice President Al Gore’s chief fundraiser into the placement-agent business illustrates how it has become the province of the well- connected, including campaign operatives, out-of-office politicians, former public pension officials and even a Pro Football Hall of Fame wide receiver.

“When you look at some of who the placement agents are, you say these are people who are really not in the financial business,” said Orin Kramer, who oversees pensions as head of New Jersey’s Investment Council. “These are politically connected intermediaries, and that’s not a way it ought to operate.”


Posted at 9:30 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Just this side of heaven is a place called Rainbow Bridge.

When an animal dies that has been especially close to someone here, that pet goes to Rainbow Bridge. There are meadows and hills for all of our special friends so they can run and play together. There is plenty of food, water and sunshine, and our friends are warm and comfortable.

All the animals who had been ill and old are restored to health and vigour. Those who were hurt or maimed are made whole and strong again, just as we remember them in our dreams of days and times gone by. The animals are happy and content, except for one small thing; they each miss someone very special to them, who had to be left behind.

They all run and play together, but the day comes when one suddenly stops and looks into the distance. His bright eyes are intent. His eager body quivers. Suddenly he begins to run from the group, flying over the green grass, his legs carrying him faster and faster.

You have been spotted, and when you and your special friend finally meet, you cling together in joyous reunion, never to be parted again. The happy kisses rain upon your face; your hands again caress the beloved head, and you look once more into the trusting eyes of your pet, so long gone from your life but never absent from your heart.

Then you cross Rainbow Bridge together….


Dear Tom,

This means so much to those of us who have bonded tightly with our pets only to be separated in a time frame that seems so brief.

You know Mr. Fred has had a stroke, is blind and can’t walk well. I am privileged to carry the little guy wherever he needs to go. I hope to spend 24/7 with him so when his time comes, he is not alone. I pray that Rainbow Bridge is there because a heaven without our dear little ones cannot be much of a heaven at all.

Thank you and good night Tom.


Dear Mr. Sinclair,

The article from the owner of the Dodge dealership made me sick to my stomach this evening.  Being a small business owner in America, it appears it is only a matter of time before the government in some way finds a way to either put me out of business directly or tax me into oblivion. I will fight on nonetheless in the spirit of my family, our forefathers and the grit and determination you have taught me via MineSet. As always I can never say "thank you" enough.

My thought, a separate subject, is in regards to Monty’s email and the momentous stock market rise in India.  Being the World’s largest consumer of gold I suspect that a strong Indian economy supported by increasing stock market wealth will be wildly bullish for the Indian buyers of gold and create even more significant demand for the yellow metal.  It’s only a matter of time before the insurance you have requested we protect ourselves with is called on to perform. I know many people who have taken your advice and learned from your efforts.  We are forever grateful.

Best Regards,


I am honored to be your friend. Men like you give me hope for a future.


Dear CIGAs,

As Jim has often said, China is going for the commodities. We can see them buying commodities with dollar loans, allowing them to diversify from dollars to commodities.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild

China, Brazil Agree to $10 Billion Loan, Exploration (Update1)
2009-05-19 11:11:00.536 GMT
By John Liu

May 19 (Bloomberg) — China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, and Brazil signed 13 accords, including a $10 billion loan and agreements on oil exploration and crude trade.

China PetroChemical Corp., the nation’s largest refiner, will explore for oil in two areas in Brazil, Zhang Guobao, the head of the National Energy Administration, said before a signing ceremony to be attended by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA and China Development Bank agreed to a $10 billion loan agreement.

Petrobras, as Brazil’s state-owned company is known, has been in talks with China about a loan since last year. The company has sought alternatives to international bank lending and bonds to finance its spending plan amid the global credit crunch. China is securing energy resources to power its economy, the world’s third-largest, by offering loans to oil-producing countries including Russia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan.

Petrobras will supply 150,000 barrels of crude oil a day to China this year and 200,000 barrels in 2010 under one of the agreements signed today, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said in Beijing, without giving details.




The prospects for college graduates have never been worse.

If they can’t find jobs, how will they pay off their student loans?

Best Regards,
CIGA Wallace

Poll Shows Sink or Swim for Grads
Calvin Woodward And Ann Sanner, Associated Press Writers

May 19, 2009

WASHINGTON – School’s out, surf’s up, summer beckons. Time for college students to see if they can stay afloat in the worst economy their generation has known.

Young people are carrying a load heavier than they normally bear as they scatter from campuses, judging from an AP-mtvU poll that finds students anxious about their finances, job prospects after graduation and the pressures facing their folks back home.

Josh Donahue, 23, an Oregon State University economics graduate, is living on food stamps. First in his family with a university degree, he stays with relatives and scrapes even for a menial job instead of the bank gig he’d dreamed about.

"A degree in economics," he said, "doesn’t really prepare you to understand the economy very well."

To be sure, tight budgets are a rite of passage at college. Ramen noodles build character.


Another answer for Cape Town, RSA:

You ask if my date in 2011 or Armstrong’s date in 2011 coincides with Alf’s 5th wave high.

The right person to ask would be Alf.

The answer is that probabilities support that conclusion, but I suspect not.

My answer therefore since I do not hedge is NO.



“Create disorder in their forces and take them”
–Sun Tzu

The UDX has completed the three drives to a top formation.  The next down leg in the UDX has started.

Three Drives to a Top 08-09:


Three Drives to a Top 05-06:



Failure of the swing low on the UDX to Gold Ratio will signal an acceleration of money away from paper (UDX) to gold. It’s only a matter of time. The C-wave strength will be difficult to control on the COMEX. Stand for delivery, “Create disorder in their forces and take them.”

UDX to Gold Ratio:


It amazes me how reality TV star and politician indiscretions capture more of America’s attention than the protection of the U.S. Dollar. While the former is good coffee house fodder, the latter, used to cloth and feed hard-working families, is life.

Currency debasement is being used to relieve America’s debt burdens. This strategy, despite the rhetoric, carries a heavy price. That price comes in the form of reduced standard of livings for American families unprotected against currency debasement.


Posted at 8:33 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Friends,

I firmly believe those of you who have been reading this site for at least two years have been given the ability not only to navigate these rough economic waters, but to prosper along the way as well.

You have been given the best resources I know, their strengths defined, with nothing withheld.

You have been taught basic technical analysis and warned not to assume you are a fledgling Livermore or Seligman.

You have been taught what cycles really are, which is far different from what people think they are.

You have been given tools generally used for navigation, woodworking and architecture and shown how to apply them to understand pricing.

You have been taught the Austrian and Chicago School economics to better understand the economic laws that will defeat all attempts to nullify and deny them.

You have been given all you need to connect the dots in order to put it all together in a package of guidance that I do not think can be equalled anywhere, at any price. This was all given to you for free.

You must do the work for yourself. Like Alf, I will not do the interim for you, yet it is all there screaming to be understood.

Every day the news is reviewed, the rumors are defrocked and light is brought into a dark world of media madness designed to keep you as sheeple rather than people.

This earns me derision from some and attacks from others on my person as well as my projects, but when it is all said and done you will see that I have put my reader’s and stockholder’s interests infinitely ahead of myself in this crossing of deadly economic currents.

Here are my questions to you:

Have you learned?

Do you feel an absolute conviction to the ways, means and answer?

If not, what are you missing?

Send your answers to Editor Dan as I prepare to make a new video conference to address these details. You can email him at

The reason I ask is that you have the keys to the kingdom if only you look, be silent and listen.

Respectfully yours,

Posted at 2:08 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

Once again, risk was back in vogue as the Euro-Yen cross built on yesterday’s big upside day. With the equities continuing their bear market rally, the reflation trade was the game of the day as money poured back into the commodity complex for the second day in a row. Crude oil shot up to $60 at one point in the session while the grains, particularly soybeans, were all higher. None of this was lost on the Forex markets which ingloriously dumped Humpty Dumpty, aka the US Dollar, and bid up all of the major currencies against it. Even the Yen was higher against the Dollar today. The commodity currencies, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars, were all beneficiaries of the money flows into the commodity sector.

The Dollar’s weekly chart is looking more and more like it has posted a major long term double top just above the 89 level. It is perched precariously on the 50 week moving average having found support at that level last week and thus far this week. Should this all important technical level give way, the Dollar will more than likely drop down towards the 100 week moving average near the 79.20 level.  A close beneath that level would indeed confirm the double top on the weekly chart and would be quite ominous for the greenback moving forward. Such an event would catapult gold above the $1000 level.  I have no doubt that the US monetary authorities are closely watching the price action of the Dollar, not to mention the US long bond which looks quite sickly.

Gold continues to meet with concerted selling near the $930 level (according to the latest Commitment of Traders report – that selling is coming from the bullion banks – no surprise here). This level has been tested once and held – should it be tested a second time and give way, the momentum to the upside will increase. Currently gold is seeing more of a grinding move higher rather than a strong uptrend. I am of the opinion that will change if $930 gives way on a closing basis.

The mining shares are displaying a stronger looking price chart than their yellow counterpart over at the Comex with the pattern more closely resembling that of a pause in a uptrend. The HUI needs to clear 360 on a settlement basis to kick the next leg higher while the XAU needs a convincing settlement above the 143 level to scuttle the potential double top near that region and send price charging higher.

The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) looks like it took a brief pause in its three week uptrend but today is moving back up again. Were it not for the weight of the sagging natural gas market, chances are it would be just a few points below its recent peak. There is a bit of a conflict taking place in gold that involves this move higher in the commodity complex. The gold bears are harrumphing about a rising commodity complex signifying that the economy is slowly improving and therefore gold no longer needs to receive safe haven flows and is due for a fall. The problem with that argument is that their reason for the move higher in the entire commodity complex fails to take into account the link with the falling US Dollar. Money is flowing into commodities not to much due to the improving economy scenario (although I will cede that is part of the reason) but rather due to investor concerns over the long term health of the US Dollar and the inflationary repercussions of nearly unlimited creation of the same. Simply put, savvy investors can read the handwriting on the wall and know full well that the Greenback is heading for a sharp fall and are therefore attempting to secure their wealth from the ravages of the coming tidal wave of inflation. In such an environment, those making the argument that the price of gold will fall due to the lack of a need for a safe haven are seriously mistaken. Gold will shrug off any pressure tied to such thinking and will track higher along with the rest of the commodity complex as the Dollar drops below major support in the months ahead.

I wish for the sake of my children’s future I could say otherwise, but our monetary authorities and the plague of free-spending politicians have sealed the doom of the US Dollar. Its day of supremacy is slowly fading and with it goes our way of life. We are witnessing an historic transition occurring even if the vast majority is blithely unaware of it. The Dollar will go the way of Pound Sterling and all we can now do is to observe the tragic process knowing that it could have and should have been prevented if only we had true statesmen instead of short-sighted, self-serving politicians and bureaucrats. You sow the wind and you reap the whirlwind.

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini


Posted at 12:23 PM (CST) by & filed under Guild Investment.


Every five years, assuming there are no failed confidence votes, the Indian electorate goes to the polls for a month long voting exercise where over 400 million voters (out of about 700 million eligible voters) decide the country’s leadership.

The election that just ended this past weekend will return the Congress party coalition and the incorruptible Manmohan Singh to the position of Prime Minister.  The Congress party coalition will have close to a majority and will be able to make a strong coalition without the communists or the radical right.  We expect a pro-business, pro-growth economic policy, a pro-western foreign policy and an improvement of the government’s ability to achieve its stated goals.  For the last several years the Congress party has ruled in a coalition with radical left parties.  These parties slowed or stopped much economic progress that Congress had initiated.

This election will make India a stronger investment destination, strengthen its economic growth rate and strengthen an already stable democracy.  As everyone knows, India is located in a turbulent region.  India is surrounded by several small, unstable, and sometimes warring states.  Their neighbors include Sri Lanka to the south, Nepal to the north, Bangladesh to the north east, andPakistan to the west.  As we have suggested in past letters, the U.S. should look more to India and less to the corrupt and weak government in Pakistan for a dependable ally in the region.

REUTERS NEWS, Sunday May 17, 2009
By Krittivas Mukherjee

NEW DELHI, May 17 (Reuters) – India’s Congress party held talks on Sunday to identify allies for a stable new coalition government after a sweeping election victory at a time of sagging economic growth and regional instability.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s coalition defied predictions of a tight election and was only about 11 seats short of an outright majority from the 543 seats at stake, according to election commission data. (For more stories click [nSP437509])

In a country where unwieldy coalitions were becoming the order of the day and hobbling policy, the electoral verdict this time means Congress will call the shots in coalition building rather than being dependent on the goodwill of regional parties.

The Congress’ top leaders, including Singh, party chief Sonia Gandhi and Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, met on Sunday and discussed potential allies.

They were expected to talk later on Sunday with the regional Samajwadi Party, which is based in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, for a possible alliance, local TV channels said. The party had backed the Congress-led government over the last year.

"I can only tell you that there are a lot many smaller groups, many political parties or independents who are more than willing to support this government in national interest," Congress spokesman Rajiv Shukla said.

Pollsters had predicted controversial regional chieftains like Mayawati, a lower caste leader in northern India, could have held the balance of power after the election, stymieing economic policy and demanding ministerial portfolios.

A strong Congress-led coalition, free of pressures from its former communist partners, has boosted the prospect of reforms to encourage growth in Asia’s third largest economy.

The new government will also have a strong mandate to deal with security issues in a region overshadowed by instability inPakistan and Afghanistan.

Singh’s coalition will be free to pursue closer ties with theUnited States, which the communists had opposed. They  eventually walked out of the alliance over a civilian nuclear energy deal.

Indian markets were set to surge on Monday on expectations the clear election victory would lead to a strong and stable government that would accelerate the pace of economic reform.

The rupee <INR=IN> was expected to strengthen past 49 per dollar and bond yields were set to fall as the outcome should encourage foreign investors, analysts said.

"The markets could go up anywhere between 1,100-1,300 points over the next two to three days because you cannot have asked for a better combination," Arun Kejriwal, strategist at KRIS, said of the share market

The Congress must form a government by June 2.


While a strong mandate gives the reformist Singh the freedom to pursue market-friendly reforms, Congress party leaders struck a cautious note saying they would rather focus on reviving domestic demand.

"Some of the icons of the financial world who were advocating financial reforms have closed shop. We have to be cautious this time," Trade Minister Kamal Nath  said in a telephone interview.

During the election, the Congress had campaigned on a record of spending on the rural poor, including a public jobs programme in the countryside and a costly loan waiver programme for indebted farmers, and was unlikely to give up such a platform.

"Inclusive growth was the mantra of success," wrote political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan in The Mail Today.

The Congress leadership was also expected to discuss a cabinet role for Rahul Gandhi, heir apparent of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty. He is seen as the architect of the Congress party’s resurgence, particularly in the northern states.

Though Singh, 76, will retain his office for now, Gandhi is projected as a potential future prime minister.

"Verdict 2009 has also been a decisive judgement on the 39-year-old Rahul Gandhi as a campaigner, political tactician and as the ordained one who would be king," wrote the Times of India. "And the judgement is overwhelmingly in his favour."

(Writing by Sanjeev Miglani; Editing by Alistair Scrutton)


The currency markets are discounting mechanisms…when will they start to correctly discount all of the unwise maneuvers currently being taken in the U.S?  Currencies are a strategic indicator of the economic health of a nation, a society, and a culture.

Gold has, in the past, alternated between acting as a currency (when government’s management of currencies has been unwise), and acting like a commodity when well- managed currencies have been the rule.  We believe that in coming years gold will act like a currency.  Gold will become a currency destination for those who doubt the integrity and wisdom of the governments which mange the world’s major currencies.  Gold will be bought, along with other well managed currencies, as a hedge against poorly managed currencies.

We expect strong non-U.S. currencies, especially those countries with oil production, stronger emerging economy currencies, for example the Chinese Yuan, gold, oil, food, non U.S. bonds, and stocks to move inversely to the U.S. dollar.  We expect them to rise as the U.S. dollar continues its recent decline.  It is our opinion that strong currencies, gold, food, oil, selected foreign bonds and well managedU.S. and foreign stocks will acquire more investor interest as people seek to hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar.

For the last several years, every time we have seen political, military, or economic crises, investors have plunged into U.S. dollars as a safe haven.  Has this been rational, based on economic and financial facts?  In our opinion, the answer is no.

Financially and economically, the U.S. dollar is being badly mismanaged.  It is being diluted and undermined by irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, and it should have declined in value as U.S. economic fortunes have declined.

To understand why the dollar has not declined more, one must consider human psychology; the part of human psychology that creates the desire to stick to what is known and what is big, even when the known and big is faltering.  From this perspective, one can see how some frightened investors have bought dollars when crises occur.

However, if we examine the situation, without emotion, there is little justification for a long term positive view of the U.S. dollar.  Many important figures are embracing this realization, including President Obama, who recently warned that China may not keep loaning the U.S. money forever.

Let us look logically at the case for owning currencies or gold instead of the U.S. dollar by asking a few questions.

1. Why is the U.S. taking the primary role, and practically taking sole responsibility to restructure the world banking system?  The U.S. is spending more taxpayers’ money than is rational, and the U.S. is damaging the future of all its citizens in order to help other nations.  The only logic for this is that the U.S.leadership believes that they are the world’s dominant nation, and have a responsibility for everyone else.  At GIM, we take strong issue with this logic.  When did it become wise to keep others from receiving the fruits of their actions?

2. Why does the U.S. continue to buy their own debt via quantitative easing?  This is the approach that has been pioneered by many Latin American countries that later experienced run away inflation.

3. Why does the U.S. Congress attack the productive portions of society, the earners, in favor of the unproductive portions the recipients of state aid?

4. Why does the Congress of the U.S. make it hard for the best industry in the country (the technology industry) to get the foreign technology workers that they need by withholding visas?

5. Why has the U.S. elected more and more tax and spend politicians?  Numerous economic studies have shown that socialized economies do not grow as rapidly as free market economies.  Tax receipts and standard of living grow more slowly…or shrink.

6. Why does the U.S. insist on continuing its role as world policeman?  We do not wish to take a position on the wisdom of the world policeman role, but the truth is that this role is financially beyond the means of the national treasury.  This view has been more than adequately corroborated by the announcement of a minimum $1.8 trillion U.S. budget deficit for the current fiscal year.

In effect the U.S. is a nation that has lost its way economically and fiscally.  It is behaving like a banana republic.  The U.S. has only its former glory and its size to make it a psychologically attractive port in a storm.  The U.S. economic empire, like all previous empires that have approached the end of their power, rely on the memory of past glory and the repetition of its past patterns of power politics.  How much longer can memories of past glories outweigh the reality of diminished current finance in investors’ minds?

We believe that a country’s future always follows the money.  In the U.S. the money is leaving for China…and so is the power.


Most world market rallied for about eight weeks.  China has been the exception.  China has rallied for a couple of months longer.  In the last week, world markets have entered a corrective phase, while investors catch their breath, take some profits and await a return of the rally.

If you are a fundamental investor, today there are only a few areas with strong investment fundamentals.  India, China, and investments which will benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, such as oil, gold, and agriculture related investments are more attractive in our opinion. Capital will be available for companies in these countries and industries.  If you wish to invest in markets other than these, be sure to invest in only those companies with strong cash flows; those which are self-financing.  Wherever you invest, take advantage of volatility to buy the dips and sell rallies for part of your positions.


We are not excited about the demand for most base metals.  Apart from China, there are few buyers, and although buyers will appear as world economies bottom in late 2009 or 2010, the demand will not be huge.  The glory days of 2007 will not be soon repeated for most base metals, unless inflation becomes even more virulent than we foresee.  In this case, gold and oil will go to prices many times higher than their current levels.  If you wish to invest in base metals companies, we suggest that you focus those companies owned by China, or those which have strong relationships with the Chinese.


India’s election was good news for investors. World stock markets need a breather and India, China and those investments which benefit from an inevitably declining dollar as mentioned above, remain our favorites.

Thanks for listening.

Monty Guild and Tony Danaher