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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Reset has begun, the last men standing will be gold and silver only. Currency will survive for commerce, but gold and silver will be your only store houses of value. This is a watershed event heralding the birth of the first reset.

Russia Buys Quarter of World Yuan Reserves in Shift From Dollar
January 9, 2018

Russia’s central bank dumped $101 billion in U.S. holdings from its huge reserves, shifting into euros and yuan last spring amid a new round of U.S. sanctions.

The central bank moved the equivalent of $44 billion each into the European and Chinese currencies in the second quarter, according to a report published on late Wednesday by the Bank of Russia, which discloses the data with a six-month lag. Another $21 billion was invested in the Japanese yen.

The Chinese currency accounted for 15 percent of total holdings at the last reading, up from 5 percent at the end of the first quarter, according to the report. That puts Russia’s yuan share at about ten times the average for global central banks, with its total holdings of the currency accounting for about a quarter of world reserves in yuan, according to International Monetary Fund data. Morgan Stanley estimated Russia was the main buyer of Chinese bonds last year.


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“A Soft Coup Against Donald Trump Is Underway” Declares Major Turkish Daily
January 8, 2018

The op-ed declares case closed for any doubts about a fierce resistance seeking to subvert Trump within his own administration:

If there was ever any doubt that the resistance within the Trump administration wasn’t real, what happened in light of Trump’s decision to leave disproved the skeptics. Bolton and several other members of the Trump administration are committing a serious crime by preventing the current president of the United States from reversing his predecessor’s misguided decisions in the Syrian theater. What is happening today isn’t a policy debate, but a direct challenge to American democracy by un-elected paper-pushers. Indeed, “many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate” President Trump’s agenda




The dollar is used less and less in trade as you said would happen.


India Begins Paying For Iranian Oil In Rupees
January 8, 2018

Three months ago, in Mid-October, Subhash Chandra Garg, economic affairs secretary at India’s finance ministry, said that India still hasn’t worked out yet a payment system for continued purchases of crude oil from Iran, just before receiving a waiver to continue importing oil from Iran in its capacity as Iran’s second largest oil client after China.
















Since childhood we were always taught to “Mind Your Own Business”.

When did that change?

Was it with the advent of Mass Media?























What America has been doing for years now, in justifying its involvement in the internal affairs of other  nations, would make Goebbels proud.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

How The US Spent Billions To Change The Outcome Of Elections Around The World: A Review
January 8, 2019

Authored by Danny Haiphong via,

The U.S. military state overthrows democratically-elected governments that it deems to be a threat to corporate interests.

“There is plenty of evidence that the United States is the most depraved and dangerous “meddler” in the affairs of other nations that history has ever know

Dan Kovalik is a labor and human rights lawyer, but most of all he is an anti-imperialist and an author of three books. Kovalik’s first two books tackled the specific US war drives against Russia and Iran. His third installment, The Plot to Control the World: How the US Spent Billions to Change the Outcome of Elections Around the World, addresses the broad scope of US election meddling abroad. The book provides much needed political and ideological life support to an anti-war movement in the U.S that has been rendered nearly invisible to the naked eye.



Creature From Jekyll Island…one of the most complete studies of the events are the Federal Reserve.














As Apple and Amazon go, so goes Trump.




THE stalwart of today’s market.

The high priestess of finance.

The global dominatrix.

First production cuts, then price cuts, and now Apple services is suddenly in trouble…

Summarizing, the “Kvaal call”, the Nomura analysts concludes that “It’s not just units but services too.” Of course, looking at the AAPL stock price over the past week, which has rebounded strongly on hopes of an imminent US-China trade deal (which we now know isn’t coming) and more stimulus by the Fed and FOMC, and recouped much of last Tuesday’s shocking revenue guidance cut, one would think that it is only smooth sailing from this point on for Tim Cook. One would be dead wrong.

As GM goes, so goes America.  Remember that old adage?

(From Charlie Wilson, President of GM, back in 1953.)

Well………(you can extrapolate from there)

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Even More Bad News For Apple
January 9, 2019

For those who thought that the latest news that Apple was slashing iPhone production again, this time by 10%, for the second time in 2 months was as bad as it would get, we have some bad news.

Earlier, when commenting on the latest production cut, we had a modest proposal: “Maybe, just maybe, they should consider cutting prices?”




It’s coming, like it or not and everyone in the know accepts it, and is planning on it cohesively and collectively. Everything else is kabuki theatre.

A substantial decline in the value of the US dollar is required to bring the US trade account into balance. That means a huge devaluation and a loss of its reserve status among oil producers and central banks. It means a huge increase in inflation of imported goods into the US during the lengthy transition. It means a huge increase in taxes on income and wealth for U.S. citizens. It means a wholesale liquidation of debt and equities followed by hyperinflation. It means social and political unrest. It means an end of an empire.

CIGA Kevin

Crude Oil and Other Petroleum Distillate and Gold Facts:

  • World Oil Imports grew about 1.4% to roughly US $886B representing about 15bb/year up from US$873B in 2017. Oil Imports represents about 5.0% of the worldwide value of all import products
  • World Imports All Products amounts to about US $18T
  • World Oil Supply/Production as of Q3 ’18 amounted to 100.9 mb/d or 36.9 bb/year & $2.2T
  • China Oil Imports amount to about 10 mb/day or 3.6 bb/year or 20% of total world crude oil and petroleum distillates imports. In 2017 that amounted to roughly US$177B; in 2018 some US $200B.
  • China Domestic Gold Production amounted to 426 MT or 13.7m oz in 2017 accounting for 13.03% of global gold production, making China the world’s largest gold producing nation for the 11th consecutive year and double that of the U.S.

  • World Gold Production amounted to about 3276 MT or 100M oz +/- in 2017 and declining trend
  • China’s Established in Ground Gold Resource Reserves were 13,195 MT in 2017 , for YoY growth of 8.45%
  • 100% Gold Exchange for Oil Trade in China– a 100% gold exchange for oil trade-backed RMB would require about a 263:1 ratio of gold price per ounce to barrel of oil (3.6 bb/year oil imports)/(13.7M gold ounces produced) to fund 100% of China oil imports via China’s domestic annual gold production (not including the gold resources they own in foreign countries) about $13,500/oz
  • 100% Gold Exchange for Oil Trade Worldwide –  a 100% gold exchange for oil trade in a one world currency would require about a 150:1 ratio of gold price per ounce to barrel of oil

(15.0 bb/year oil imports)/(100M gold ounces produced) or about $7800/oz

  • 5% Gold Exchange for All Products Trade Worldwide – a 5% gold exchange for all products traded worldwide would require a value equal to 5% of the US $18T in worldwide trade or US $900B worth of world gold production. That would require about a $9000/oz gold price ($900B/100M oz annual gold production).
  • 5% Gold Exchange for All Products Trade Worldwide China – China being a net exporter with a $450B trade surplus could accumulate 1500 MT physical gold each year with a worldwide 5% gold exchange trade currency and $9000/oz gold never touching their 13,195 MT in Ground Gold Resource Reserves or 450MT of annual gold production.
  • 5% Gold Exchange for All Products Trade Worldwide U.S.-  The U.S. would require 2073 MT of gold to finance its $600B annual trade deficit but domestically produces only 6.7M oz of gold.

Consequently a substantial decline in the value of the US dollar is required to bring the US trade account into balance. That means a huge devaluation and a loss of its reserve status among oil producers and central banks. It means a huge increase in inflation of imported goods into the US during the lengthy transition. It means a huge increase in taxes on income and wealth for U.S. citizens. It means a wholesale liquidation of debt and equities followed by hyperinflation. It means social and political unrest. It means an end of an empire.


It looks like Tanzania means business. Mr. Magafuli and Mr. Bestow may become the shining capitalist stars of the African continent?

Courtesy of JB.


Tanzania’s Magufuli Orders Central Bank To Create Gold Reserve
January 9, 2019

Tanzanian President John Magufuli on Wednesday ordered the central bank to create a gold reserve, as he urged the government to better control mineral exports from the country, Africa’s fourth largest gold producer.

“We should start buying gold, the central bank must invest in this. We must have our reserves in dollars but also our reserves in gold, because gold is money,” Magufuli said at a ceremony in Dar es Salaam.

Magufuli is intent on regulating his country’s mining sector, which has faced allegations of fraud and underreporting of production and profits, and has locked horns with foreign mining companies.


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Debt doesn’t matter…until it does!

Visualizing the Snowball of Government Debt
January 7, 2019


Over the last five years, markets have pushed concerns about debt under the rug.

While economic growth and record-low interest rates have made it easy to service existing government debt, it’s also created a situation where government debt has grown in to over $63 trillion in absolute terms.

The global economic tide can change fast, and in the event of a recession or rapidly rising interest rates, debt levels could come back into the spotlight very quickly.


Today’s visualization comes to us from and it rolls the world’s countries into a “snowball” of government debt, colored and arranged by debt-to-GDP ratios. The data itself comes from the IMF’s most recent October 2018 update.

The structure of the visualization is apt, because debt can accumulate in an unsustainable way if governments are not proactive. This situation can create a vicious cycle, where mounting debt can start hampering growth, making the debt ultimately harder to pay off.


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You and Jim have said this would happen.


Is This Why Gold Just Had Its Best Month In 2 Years?
January 7, 2019

Spot Gold prices rallied for three straight months to end 2018, with December seeing the biggest monthly gold gains in around two years (since Jan 2017)…


At the same time, China’s official gold reserves rose for the first time in around two years (since Oct 2016)…




President Trump wants out of Syria. This story should make us ask just who are John Bolton-Lindsey Graham Mike Pompeo that they rolled back Mr Trump’s decision.

Bolton Puts Conditions on Syria Withdrawal, Suggesting a Delay of Months or Years
January 6, 2019

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s national security adviser, John R. Bolton, rolled back on Sunday Mr. Trump’s decision to rapidly withdraw from Syria, laying out conditions for a pullout that could leave American forces there for months or even years.

Mr. Bolton, making a visit to Israel, told reporters that American forces would remain in Syria until the last remnants of the Islamic State were defeated and Turkey provided guarantees that it would not strike Kurdish forces allied with the United States. He and other top White House advisers have led a behind-the-scenes effort to slow Mr. Trump’s order and reassure allies, including Israel.

“We don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated with and agreed to by the United States, at a minimum so they don’t endanger our troops,” Mr. Bolton said in Jerusalem, where he was traveling ahead of a visit Tuesday to Turkey.


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Flynn was hung out to dry on a lie.


‘Secret’ Evidence Vindicates Michael Flynn’s ‘Treasonous’ Dinner with Putin
January 5, 2018

Tyler Durden

Over the last month we have learned much more about the circumstances surrounding the departure of former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn.

Flynn pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI about a conversation with then-Russian ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak; one on December 29, 2016 in which Flynn urged the Russians to “refrain from escalating the situation in response to sanctions that the US had imposed against Russia,” and another conversation in which Kislyak told Flynn that Russia had decided to moderate its response following the request.

Nothing earth shattering, illegal, or collusive in the “witch hunt” sense – but Flynn was not forthcoming with the Justice Department, or Vice President Mike Pence. He was fired from his post and subsequently pleaded guilty in December 2017 to making false statements to the FBI.




We ran short of time on Saturday’s talk, so I have posted this for listeners.


Chinese Scholar Offers Insight Into Beijing’s Strategic Mindset
January 5, 2019

The top story of 2019 – and the years ahead – will continue to revolve around the myriad, dangerous permutations of the economic ascent of China, the resurgence of nuclear superpower Russia and the decline of the US’s global hegemony.

Two years ago, before the onset of the Trump administration, I sketched how the shadow play might proceed in the New Great Game in Eurasia.

Now the new game hits high gear; it’s the US against the Russia-China strategic partnership.

Diplomatic capers, tactical retreats, psychological, economic, cyber and even outer space duels, all enveloped in media hysteria, will continue to rule the news cycle. Be prepared for all shades of carping about authoritarian China, and its “malign” association with an “illiberal” Russian bogeyman bent on blasting the borders of Europe and “disrupting” the Middle East.




As you keep saying, with out the rule of law we have nothing.


Death of Democracy, America’s Loss of Rule of Law
January 5, 2018

As of the beginning of 2019, America enters a meltdown. Congress, under the House leadership of Nancy Pelosi, says President Trump may well be indicted for crimes, election fraud, conspiracy, obstruction of justice, tax evasion, no one is sure except maybe Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

What is known, however, is that the deterioration of rule of law in the US has gone on for decades with the scales of justice under the absolute control of the powerful and corrupt. What is also know to anyone who pays remote attention is that it is the GOP, which doesn’t necessarily mean Donald Trump, that has been bought and paid for by special interests.

This issue has come to light only recently, and to a degree few are aware, as moves unseen by the public are bringing potential reforms into play. The powerbases within the military and intelligence community, never well understood and too often assumed to be owned by Israel or Wall Street, are close to quietly assuming power.

Past that, business leaders are also organizing, terrified of runaway policies that have led to even deeper debt, potential civil unrest and, most threatening of all, the collapse of the dollar.




We covered this on Saturday. The $450 billion lost is just the start of it, hold on.


In Price and Value, Chinese Phone Makers Outpace Apple in Much of the World
January 4, 2018

BEIJING — To most Americans, the names are unfamiliar, maybe a little hard to pronounce: Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo.

They are China’s biggest smartphone brands. Around the world — although not in the United States — they are making the handset business brutally competitive. This week, after Apple warned of disappointing iPhone sales in China, industry observers said that devices from the Chinese brands were a major culprit.

As the phone market in China reaches saturation and sales shrink over all, the country’s hardware makers are pushing hard, and increasingly winning fans, in places like France, Germany, India and Southeast Asia, where consumers find that the phones can do just about everything an iPhone can do at a fraction of the cost.

Apple sits comfortably atop the market in many countries, including China, for the highest-end handsets. But companies like Huawei have started to do elsewhere what they have done in China, competing with the iPhone on experience and value and luring customers with price comparisons that make them rethink buying Apple’s signature product.



Nothing else to say.


















You and Bill have told people be ready. I hope they listened.


Start Prepping! Electric Grid ‘Prime Target’ Of Terrorists, ‘Profound Threat,’ Says Council
December 10, 2018

In a new report that warns that the electric grid is the “prime target” of terrorists, Americans are being urged prepare for the up to six months without electricity, transportation, fuel, money, and healthcare.

“People no longer keep enough essentials within their homes, reducing their ability to sustain themselves during an extended, prolonged outage. We need to improve individual preparedness,” said a just-published report to President Trump.

“There needs to be more individual accountability for preparedness,” adds the report, “Surviving a Catastrophic Power Outage,” from the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council and published by the Department of Homeland Security.

It looked at the potential of a power outage of up to six months and recommended Americans have enough supplies on hand for a minimum 14 days, a standard for some prepper organizations.




It’s ugly, but true.


The Ugly Truth
For years critics of central bank policy have been dismissed as negative nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us all in the face: Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth and now the jig is up. As I’ve been saying for a long time: There is zero evidence that markets can make or sustain new highs without some sort of intervention on the side of central banks. None. Zero. Zilch.

And don’t think this is hyperbole on my part, I will present the evidence of course.

In March 2009 markets bottomed on the expansion of QE1 which was introduced following the initial QE1 announcement in November 2008. Every major correction since then has been met with major central bank intervention. QE2, Twist, QE3 and so on.

When market tumbled in 2015 and 2016 global central banks embarked on the largest combined intervention effort in history to the tune of over $5 trillion between 2016 and 2017 giving us a grand total of over $15 trillion in central bank balance sheet courtesy FOMC, ECB and BOJ:








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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Tight liquidity illustrated…

9/11: Finally the Truth Comes Out?
January 4, 2019

Paul Craig Roberts

Although the United States is allegedly a democracy with a rule of law, it has taken 17 years for public pressure to bring about the first grand jury investigation of 9/11. Based on the work of Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth led by Richard Gage, first responder and pilots organizations, books by David Ray Griffin and others, and eyewitness testimony, the Lawyers’ Committee for 9/11 Inquiry has presented enough hard facts to the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York to force his compliance with the provisions of federal law that require the convening of a federal grand jury to investigate for the first time the attacks of September 11, 2001.

This puts the US Justice (sic) Department in an extraordinary position. Every informed person is aware that elements of the US government were involved either in the perpetration of the 9/11 attacks or in a coverup of the attacks. There will be tremendous pressures on the US Attorney’s office to have the grand jury dismiss the evidence as an unpatriotic conspiracy theory or otherwise maneuver to discredit the evidence presented by the Lawyers’ Committee, or modify the official account without totally discrediting it.

We can have hopes that the United States can establish the true story of its own Reichstag Fire, but I am not holding my breath that the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York can stand up to the powerful elements in the Deep State that perpetuated or covered up the 9/11 false flag attacks or that he is inclined to try.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

This man has a very good track record!

“The Criminals Who Run The Deep State Will Be Exposed”: Kim Dotcom Teases “Next Round Of Leaks”
January 5, 2019

Hacker and serial entrepreneur Kim Dotcom is out with a new prediction for 2019:









“Get ready for the next round of leaks.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Have you ever wondered “who” would be able to buy your house if credit was not available? It won’t be long before you see…the tide is going out on a naked financial world!

Global Housing Markets From Hong Kong To Sydney Join Global Rout
January 5, 2019

It’s not just stocks: the global housing market is in for a rough patch, which has turned ugly for many homeowners and investors from Vancouver to London, with markets in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia already showing increased signs of softening.

Macro factors have triggered a global economic slowdown that is unraveling luxury marketplaces worldwide, according to Bloomberg. As a result, a turning point has been reached, with home prices globally now under pressure, and rising mortgage rates leading to depressed consumer optimism, while also triggering a housing affordability crisis, S&P Global Ratings said in a December report. To make matters worse, a simultaneous drop in house prices globally could lead to “financial and macroeconomic instability,” the IMF warned in a report last April.

While each metropolis globally has its distinct characteristics of what triggered its real estate slowdown, there are a few common denominators at play: rising borrowing costs, quantitative tightening, a crackdown on money laundering and increased government regulation, emerging market capital outflows and volatile financial markets. Bloomberg notes that there is also declining demand from Chinese buyers, who were the most powerful force in many housing markets globally over the course of this cycle.

“As China’s economy is affected by the trade war, capital outflows have become more difficult, thus weakening demand in markets including Sydney and Hong Kong,” said Patrick Wong, a real estate analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

But this can’t happen because she’s a globalist and a key piece in the deep state…right?

UNDER A HACK Angela Merkel Has Personal Details Hacked And Published Online In Mass Attack On German Politicians
January 4, 2019

ANGELA Merkel’s personal details have been hacked and published online in a mass attack targeting hundreds of German politicians, according to reports.

Private chats, financial and contact details of Germany’s Chancellor and her colleagues and opponents have been posted on Twitter.

Chancellor Merkel is one of hundreds of German politicians and public figures targeted in the mass hack attack

The only political party not targeted in the attack was the far-right AfD.

Data belonging to celebrities and leading journalists from the country have also been published.

The leak emerged last month in the form of a digital advent calendar on Twitter, reports the BBC.


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[The employment figures] were borrowed from earlier reporting, where the BLS does not have to report the revisions, at present.  Likely aimed at distracting the markets from the unexpected 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate.  Here is what I wrote earlier on my homepage.  Please call if you have any questions:

LATEST ECONOMIC RELEASES: (Jan 4) December 2018 Employment and Unemployment, and Payrolls (Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS)

Surging December payrolls were a reporting fraud, a canard, no more than massive prior-period revisions “recalculation of seasonal factors” that shifted growth from past months into the October 2018 to December 2018 timeframe, without showing the headline downside revisions to the earlier months from which the growth was borrowed.

Unadjusted October and November payroll numbers revised negligibly higher, while the seasonally adjusted data revised sharply higher and surged further in December.  The not credible headline December jobs gain of 312,000, was a nonsensical 370,000 net of prior-period revisions.

The effective reporting fraud and standard gimmick here is that previously reported data, back more than two months (before October) from which much of current headline growth was borrowed, are not reported as revised with the current headline data.  That revised reporting is seen only with the annual benchmark revision, which will not be published until next month (this reporting gimmick is reviewed regularly by ShadowStats, as last detailed in Commentary No. 979, Supplemental Detail).

December U.3 Unemployment jumped to 3.86% (headline 3.9%), from a revised 3.70%, previously 3.67% (headline 3.7% in both cases), versus a revised headline 3.8% (3.76%), previously 3.7% (3.74%) in October, in the context of annual revisions to the seasonally adjusted Household Survey (unemployment/employment) data.  The broader U.6 rate held at 7.59% in December, versus a revised 7.58% (previously 7.57%) in November and an upwardly revised 7.5% (7.45%), previously 7.4% (7.40%) in October.

The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment rate, which counts the long-term displaced and discouraged workers not accounted for by the government (discouraged workers disappear from the rolls after one year), held at 21.4% in December versus an upwardly revised 21.4% (previously 21.3%) in November.  Detail has been graphed on the Alternate Data Tab.  Five years of revised hard data are available there to subscribers.

Best regards,


– FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signals Onset of a New Recession, as Nominal Monetary Base Drops to a Five-Year Low
– Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
– Intensifying Consumer-Liquidity Squeeze Reflected in Downside Revisions to Previously Estimated Auto Sales, Housing and Third-Quarter GDP
– Third-Quarter 2018 Final Sales (GDP Net of an Increasing Inventory Buildup) Slowed to a Revised 1.03% (Initially 1.43%) from a Second-Quarter 5.33%
– Annual Growth in November Freight Activity Plunged to a Two-Year Low
– November 2018 Residential Construction and Sales Continued in Deepening Downtrends, Well Shy of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Highs
– November Manufacturing in Record 131st Straight Month of Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 4.7% (-4.7%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak; Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
– 2008 Banking-System Insolvency Arose Under the Watchful Eye of the Banking-System-Owned Federal Reserve
– Subsequent FOMC Actions in the Last Decade Centered on Propping the Banks, Not on Restoring a Healthy Economy
– Stock Market Turmoil Has Begun to Respond to the Intensifying Effects of Financial-System Distortions and Instabilities

“No. 981: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Residential Construction, GDP and Stocks