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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Bill knows that three Caravans are on their way, and with the real ramifications of this along the Southern Border of an invasion. If Texas is overrun there will be a war.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

– Real Third-Quarter 2018 GDP Gained 3.50%, Against 4.16% in Second-Quarter, Yet, Where 70.7% of the Increase in the Level of Quarterly GDP Was in Inventories, Annualized Real Final Sales Growth Plunged to 1.43% from 5.33%
– Third-Quarter Real GDP Stood 18.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, but Held Shy by 4.9% (-4.9%) of Recovering that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation
– Advance Estimate of Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Indicated Worst-Ever Quarterly Merchandise Trade Shortfall
– Third-Quarter GDP Confirmed Massive Quarterly Trade-Balance Deterioration, Worst-Ever Quarterly Shortfall in Net Exports of Goods and Services
– September New-Home Sales Collapsed to a 21-Month Low on Top of Downside Revisions; Second-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction and Sharply Deepening Six-Month Downtrend Confirmed Plunging Headlines Seen in Other Residential Construction and Sales Series; Activity Constrained by FOMC Policies Pummeling Consumer Liquidity
– Third-Quarter GDP Also Showed Third-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction in Private Residential Investment
– Federal Reserve Tightening Has Hit Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Hard, Continuing to Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery
– September Real New Orders for Durable Goods Growth of 0.6% Was a Contraction of 0.8% (-0.8%), Ex-Defense, With Gains Increasingly Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer

“No. 976: Third-Quarter 2018 GDP, September 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods, New-Home Sales “

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Courtesy of CIGA Gary.






Yes. The is crazy. Crazy like a fox.

We all know that “perception is reality.”

If the masses believe something, then the trend will go their way.

We see it stocks and bonds.

You also have it in economics. It’s called MOPE.

Perhaps the true economic and monetary figures, which we don’t get to see, are indicating a huge rise in inflationary pressures.

Perhaps the chickens have already come home to roost, and we are the last to find this out.

In an attempt to ward off another inflationary spiral, you could have the Fed intervening with higher rates, without telling us the true nature of their actions.

Wolfgang Rech

Ron Paul: Trump Is Right, The Fed Is Crazy
October 29, 2018

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

President Trump recently called the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes crazy. Leaving aside President Trump’s specific complaint, which is likely motivated by the belief that low rates will help him win reelection, he is right that “crazy” is a good way to describe the Federal Reserve.

When not forced to use a government-created currency, individuals have historically chosen to use a precious metal such as gold or silver as money. The reasons include that precious metals are durable and their value tends to remain relatively stable over time. A stable currency ensures that prices accurately convey the true value of goods and services.

A main value of a precious metal is it accurately conveys the true price of money, which is the Interest rate. If the interest rate reflects the manipulation of central bankers and not true market conditions, individuals will be unable to properly allocate resources between savings and current consumption.



Courtesy of JB.


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From our friend Dismal Dave, he understands it is all about credit.


America’s Debt: A Recipe for Disaster
October 30, 2018

Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Back in Ireland for a few days, we take up an agreeable routine. We read and write in the morning. In the afternoon, we lay stone, closing the open gable ends of our old barn.

We’ve done stone masonry in France, Argentina, and now here. (There are no stones in the Maryland tidewater.) This is the best.

The stones here are more rectangular and easier to split. The only problem is that we’re working high up on a scaffold. And while the stones are easy to lay, it’s hard to get them up to where we’re working…

When the sun sets, we are worn out… and eager to return to our laptop.

So let’s look at yesterday’s trading…


Time to Worry
October 30, 2018

James Grant

 It took the United States 193 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of federal debt. We will add that much in the current fiscal year alone.

America’s deteriorating public credit is the cold-button issue of the 2018 midterms. With rare bipartisanship, Democrats and Republicans compete to pretend that the country isn’t going broke. In 1992, the third-party presidential candidate Ross Perot likened the widening gap between federal receipts and federal spending to “the crazy aunt tucked away in the room upstairs nobody talks about.” The old gal’s dottier than ever.

It took the United States 193 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of federal debt—the gross debt, as it’s called. We will add that much in the current fiscal year alone. All told, the government owes $21.5 trillion, give or take a few careless tens of billions—that works out to $65,885 for each American. It’s the ease of borrowing that drives the growth in federal IOUs.

The remote political cause of this predicament is the ideology of statism. In Washington, this takes the form of tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect; on Wall Street, it’s found in too-big-to-fail, a virtually socialized mortgage market, and an overreaching, manipulative central bank.


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Trump is right, it’s time to End the Fed!


Trump Is Right: The Fed Is A Big Problem
October 29, 2018

Authored by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute,

President Donald J. Trump has taken on the Federal Reserve (Fed), saying that Fed chairman Jerome H. Powell is threatening US economic growth by further raising interest rates. Mainstream economists, the financial press and even some politicians react with indignation: the president’s comments undermine the Fed’s political independence, potentially endangering the confidence in the US dollar. Such a public reaction is, at first glance, understandable – as mainstream economists have declared the political independence of the central bank a “golden calf” issue.

Monetary theorists argue that a politically independent central bank is best for the currency and the economy. As a result, most central banks around the world, including the Fed, have been made politically independent. But is this so? Well, if the economy thrives, politicians leave the Fed alone. If the economy stumbles, or if the Fed pursues unpopular measures, it runs the risk that Congress or the president may revise the Federal Reserve At of 1913, stripping it of its power. In fact, the Fed’s monetary policy cannot deviate too much from the Congress’ and the president’s political agenda.

Granted: In good times, the Fed is more or less protected from the demands of political parties. But what about the influence from ‘special interest groups’ such as the banking industry on Fed policymaking? There should hardly be any doubt that the Fed caters, first and foremost, to the needs of commercial and investment banks. As the monopoly producer of the US dollar, it creates – in close cooperation with the banking community – new Greenbacks mostly via credit expansion out of thin air. In this sense, the Fed and private banks represents a cartel.


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Dear Jim,

The title is wrong, it should read “25% of millennials are pussies and have a very rude awakening in store”.

There, fixed it…



Dear Bill,

The real number is far higher than 25% and we are to blame. I never dreamed when sending my girls to college they would return as snowflakes. I had no idea safe rooms, teddy bears and vanilla ice cream were included when I made tuition payments?  Ry,  Jim

25% Of Millennials Claim They Have PTSD From 2016 Election, Study Says
October 27, 2018

Authored by Emily Zanotti via,


A new psychological study from San Francisco State University claims that a full quarter of millennials are suffering from bouts of post traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, because of the 2016 elections.

The study is by no means comprehensive – the research pool was limited to 769 students studying psychology at Arizona State University – but of those millennials chosen for the test, 25% reported experiencing “clinically significant” levels of stress, along with other symptoms of PTSD.

Students were evaluated using an “Impact of Event” scale, which measures stress levels at various times following a major traumatic event, typically a tragedy or a personal illness or injury. The results, the Washington Examiner reports, “indicated that students’ average stress score was similar to those of witnesses of a mass shooting seven months after the incident.”

    “The scale is used to gauge the extent to which individuals have been impacted by an event in such a way that it might lead to diagnosable post-traumatic stress disorder,” lead researcher, Melissa Hagan said in a statement released alongside the study.


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Robert Kiyosaki, famed author of the New York Times bestseller “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” has an interesting point of view.

He believes that fiat currencies, and even crypto currencies, will not be here in the future.  We all naturally believe this.

However, Blockchain will be around and it will target the Dollar and all other fiat currencies for destruction.

“On cryptocurrencies, the best-selling author said that while bitcoin may not last forever, blockchain could still be around.

“Blockchain is going after the dollar, fiat currency. The real threat to fiat currency is blockchain,” he said.”

That’s music to Gold’s ears!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Don’t Call “Rich Dad’s” Kiyosaki A Gold Investor – It’s More Than That
October 26, 2018

(RERUN) – Robert Kiyosaki, famed author of the New York Times bestseller “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” does not consider gold an “investment,” but rather, the only form of currency he considers “real.”

His new book, “FAKE: Fake Money, Fake Teachers, Fake Assets,” due for release in April, 2019, documents the difference between real and fake assets, and he likens gold to “God’s money,” a tribute to the yellow metal’s origins as a naturally occurring element.

“Long after you and I are gone and all that’s left is God, I promise you, the dollar will not be here, the yen will not be here, the euro will not be here…I doubt crypto will be here if everything else is gone, but anyway, I’d rather have God’s money than man’s money,” Kiyosaki told Kitco News.

Kiyosaki noted that there is no scenario in which he would abandon his holdings on gold.



How many times have we discussed just this?



Something everyone should think about….now!

I’ll bet my bottom dollar most people are totally unaware of the correlation of actual money in circulation and the amount of debt issued.

“We have often said that our current economic environment is much more sensitive to changes in interest rates because of the growth in debt outstanding since the financial crisis and the recent emergence from the ultra-low interest rate period that crisis produced.”

Makes sense.  If I’m not mistaken, then this is no different than an equity investor who buys stocks on margin.  He becomes much more sensitive (at risk) if the stocks fall in price.

“Furthermore, because of the difference between the amount of debt outstanding and the actual currency in the economic system, most of that debt represents leverage.”

Now this is the real killer.  If there’s only X amount of cash in the system, then all borrowings beyond that level of cash represent leverage (margin)!

That is scary.

Wolfgang Rech

Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors
October 26, 2018

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via,

There is an old saying that proclaims, “it’s not the size of the ship, but the motion of the ocean.” Since this is a family-friendly publication, we will leave it at that. However, the saying has a connotation that is pertinent to the bond market today. Much of the media’s focus on the recent surge in yields has been on the absolute increase in numerical terms. The increase in rates and yields, while important, fails to consider the bigger forces that can inflict pain on bond holders, or sink the ship. When losses accumulate and fear of further losses mount, volatility and other instabilities can arise in the bond market and bleed to other markets, as we are now beginning to see in the equity markets.

Since 1983, fixed-income investors have been able to put their portfolios on autopilot, clip coupons and watch prices rise and yields steadily fall. Despite a few bumps on this long path, which we will detail, yields, have declined gradually from the mid-teens to the low single digits.

In this piece, we discuss the effect that higher yields are having on debt investors today and compare it to prior temporary increases in yield. It is from the view of debt investors that we can better appreciate that the “motion” is much bigger today than years past.


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4Chan Trolls Mock ‘False Flag’ Bomb Scare By Making Parody ‘Bombs’ Of Their Own
October 24, 2018

You’ll no doubt be shocked to learn the “weaponized autists” at 4Chan are not buying the latest bomb scare targeting Democrats less than two weeks out from the midterms.

On Wednesday, CNN’s Jim Acosta shared images of one of the suspect devices he says was sent to CNN.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

This could get VERY INTERESTING in a hurry! Might it have effect on the share price? Stay tuned…

The FBI Is Reviewing Tesla’s Model 3 Production Numbers As Part Of A Criminal Probe: WSJ
October 26, 2018

The FBI is reviewing Tesla’s Model 3 production numbers as part of an ongoing criminal probe into whether the company misled investors, according to a Wall Street Journal report published Friday.

Federal agents are reviewing Tesla’s stated Model 3 numbers dating back to early 2017, the Journal reports, citing unnamed sources.

Tesla had previously said it provided documents to the Department of Justice regarding CEO Elon Musk’s controversial take-private tweet — a blunder that ultimately cost Tesla and Musk a combined $40 million in fraud settlement fees.

Now Tesla says it also provided information to the Department of Justice regarding Musk’s public statements regarding production numbers of its Model 3 sedan.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

The margin call has been issued!

Global Bloodbath: World Stocks Puke Over $8 Trillion As US Markets Collapse
October 26, 2018

Aaaaaand, it’s gone!

Global capital markets are down five weeks in a row, losing just under $9 trillion – the biggest, fastest drop since Lehman… (around $8.2 trillion from global equity markets).


Bill Holter’s Commentary

We have warned about this many times to nothing but laughter.  We assure you it is no laughing matter!

Breakingviews – China Aims Rare Earth Bazooka At Trade Rivals
October 24, 2018

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – Beijing is limiting its output of rare earths, according to Adamas Intelligence. That tackles lingering oversupply of the tough-to-mine minerals, but could easily also starve foreign buyers of key ingredients like cerium and neodymium, used in catalysts, electronics and weapons – a drastic trade war escalation that would punish profit margins. An overdue rush to develop new supply outside China, though, will come too late.

The dominance of the rare earths’ market by the People’s Republic encapsulates a lot of what trading partners worry about. The elements, common throughout the earth’s crust but tricky to extract, were perceived as strategic two decades ago by leader Deng Xiaoping, who compared it to the Middle East’s oil bounty. He instructed Chinese state-owned companies to dig deep, and they did – assisted by a horde of smaller private miners that drilled in haste, polluted liberally, and drove prices so low it became uneconomical for many foreign rivals to stay in business.


Posted at 3:25 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary


The Student Loan Debt Crisis Is About to Get Worse
October 17, 2018

While Wall Street and U.S. President Donald Trump tout news of a booming stock market and low unemployment, college students may be quick to roll their eyes. The improved economy has yet to mean higher wages for graduates already struggling to pay down massive debt, let alone ease the minds of students staring down the barrel of six-digit loan obligations yet to come.

Federal student loans are the only consumer debt segment with continuous cumulative growth since the Great Recession. As the costs of tuition and borrowing continue to rise, the result is a widening default crisis that even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell labeled as a cause for concern.

Student loans have seen almost 157 percent in cumulative growth over the last 11 years. By comparison, auto loan debt has grown 52 percent while mortgage and credit-card debt actually fell by about 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg Global Data analysis of federal and private loans. All told, there’s a whopping $1.5 trillion in student loans out there (through the second quarter of 2018), marking the second-largest consumer debt segment in the country after mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve. And the number keeps growing.


Chris Farrell: Human Traffickers and Criminal Elements in Caravan
October 26, 2018


Tom Fitton: Robert Mueller is Being Protected by Rod Rosenstein over Trump/Russia Probe
October 26, 2018


Tom Fitton on No Spin News: Was Kavanaugh Accuser Manipulated by Her Lawyers?
October 26, 2018