Posts Categorized: Trader Dan Norcini

Posted by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

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Dear CIGAs,

Today was Fed Chairman Bernanke’s chance to testisfy before the Congress’ Financial Services Committee. Here is a quick synopsis of his comments as I see them.

"The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflation is not a concern although temporary rises in energy prices bear monitoring".

There you basically have it.

Based on this testimony, gold and silver were murdered. The supposed reason? – We are told that traders were expecting QE3 to be imminent and were disappointed because the usually dovish Bernanke did not sound quite as dovish as before. Thus the metals were hammered mercilessly lower.

Excuse me – but as a trader who watches these markets each and every day for more hours than I would prefer anymore, I have not seen any analyst explain the reason for the  heretofore rally in the metals as traders EXPECTING AN IMMINENT QE3 program to launch.

The reason for the rally has been expectations by the market that Central Banks would keep the liquidity spighots open for the foreseeable future (near zero interest rate policy coupled with QE out of Europe and the UK) and thus create an environment in which there was little opportunity cost for buying the metals. This has been generating RISK TRADES in which traders/investors buy both stocks and commodities and generally sell off the Dollar, which was particularly pronounced after a rush back into the Euro once traders were convinced that the immediate fallout from the Greece debacle was past.

Comments this morning trying to explain the sell off in gold mentioned the failure of the metal to make it through the $1800 level and downside stops as the culprit but ironically they are deathly quiet in regards to silver, which only yesterday had staged a MASSIVE UPSIDE BREAKOUT on strong volume out of a congestion zone. Yet today we saw a nearly 8% wipe out in silver which completey erased yesterday’s breakout and then some.

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Posted by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Click here to visit Trader Dan Norcini’s website…

Dear CIGAs,

Gold was able to close the week out on a very strong note, although some traders did decide to cash in some profits ahead of the weekend, after getting a nice run of some $65 off of last week’s close as of Thursday’s peak price. Even in spite of the light round of profit taking, gold still managed to put in a very solid WEEKLY close surrendering only about $15 off its best level of the week and closing within striking range of $1800, the top of the heavy resistance zone noted on the price chart.

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Take a look at the weekly chart shown below for an intermediate term view of the market. Note how the chart resistance near the $1800 level can clearly be seen. Gold did not challenge this level this week but from a technical standpoint, it does stand a very good chance of so doing next week.

If you notice the pattern I have marked as a "bullish pennant" or a "bullish flag" you will see the flagpole and the pennant or actual flag. These patterns occur often enough that they should be noted as they generally portend a strong move in the direction of the flagpole which can be used as a gauge of where price might be expected to run in the near future. The length of this flagpole which extends from the bottom near $1535 to the top of the pole coming in near 1765 is $230.

Click here to read the full article on Trader Dan’s website…