Posts Categorized: Martin Armstrong

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter, Martin Armstrong.

Dear CIGAs,

For years Martin Armstrong has denied market manipulation had any effect on markets. He has taken this stance while touting the ability of his “cycles and charts” to forecast future prices of various markets. In his latest writing he says “Throughout history, there has NEVER been a market manipulated TO ALTER its long-term trend – PERIOD.” Martin Armstrong, Oct 30, 2015 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38757.

If you read the article he points out Bretton Woods would never have failed nor would the Swiss peg have broken. I would point out, the Bretton Woods agreement lasted in its original form for 27 years until it failed. During the 1960’s, the London Gold pool was formed to defend the dollar peg at $35 per ounce. The “pool” is officially admitted fact, it is admitted effort at “manipulation”. Maybe Mr. Armstrong does not believe 27 years is “the long term”? He went on to say “why invest in something that won’t be allowed to rise”? In the case of Bretton Woods it is obvious, the gold price was being artificially suppressed and would one day break free …which it did from $35 to over $800 in less than nine years! Wouldn’t this qualify as a reason to invest in something that would “never be allowed to go up”? Were they not trying to price gold against Mother Nature’s upward pull? I would ask, other than “severity” (the amount of zeros), is there anything different today than back in the late 1960’s?

It is already well documented markets far and wide are manipulated against the true trend of Mother Nature. The stock market in Japan for example has been supported by the Bank of Japan buying up over 50% of equity ETF’s. To this point it has worked, would Martin Armstrong counsel the purchase of Japanese equities because this “really isn’t” an instance of manipulation? Would he counsel not selling something which will never be allowed to go down? Actually, why is there such a thing as a “plunge protection team” in the U.S. in the first place? Or does this not exist either?

Another Armstrong fallacy and I quote “The amount of capital that will trade against anything that moves against its long-term trend is endless. If you really believe all this nonsense, then you better trade a different market. Why buy something that is manipulated and can never rally? It makes no sense.” Do you see the flaw here? He speaks about “endless capital”, what entity(s) theoretically have endless capital? Why the central banks of course …and who’s capital is the “most endless”? Yes, THE FED! Just one last question, “who” has the motive to keep the gold price thermometer from rising? Could it be the central bank who issues the reserve currency and who’s main competitor has ALWAYS been gold!? Yes, again THE FEDERAL RESERVE!

It is not rocket science and certainly not even speculation or conspiracy “theory” anymore, it is well documented that markets are in fact manipulated and done so in the directions central banks and sovereign treasuries wish. This is now FACT by admission of various central bankers, various sovereign treasury officials …and various admissions of guilt from financial firms who were doing the dirty work!

So Mr. Armstrong, please do not insult the intelligence of those of us who can still add 2+2 together. Tell “these people” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKosd0xJadE there is no manipulation, they will believe this …or anything else for that matter. To run around and talk about the complete collapse of the Western financial world in one breath and scare people into selling their only crash insurance for protection in the next breath is dastardly indeed! I believe your opining the collapse of the Western fiat system is 100% correct, this however cannot happen without capital flooding and finding it’s way into a safe monetary haven. What “is” the safe haven?

A few years back while opining of a market/financial collapse from behind bars, Mr. Armstrong was adamant that gold would move to $5,000+ per ounce or higher as a result. He called them cause and effect at the time and gold would be the safe haven from a dysfunctional system, what has changed? This is a very important question in my opinion… what has changed and why did this change immediately take place after they sprung the prison doors open? Did sunlight give him a change of “heart” (and logic) or was the federal “company mantra” part of the key to his release? According to Martin Armstrong (and Ben Bernanke), gold is not money! As George Straight has sung many times before …I got some oceanfront property in Arizona …and if you buy that I’ll throw the Golden Gate in free! Enough said.

Standing Watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome, bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Martin Armstrong.

My Dear Friends,

I have made it a practice not to comment on other people’s opinions as everyone has a right to voice how they see things and express themselves. I also know that no one really knows to the penny or exact day. Having said that, we in the community have given a stage to an expert on long term cyclical economic and political events.

Martin Armstrong is a master of this discipline and may have no real competition between cycle and historic commentary. However, as you can see from one example of the large amount of incoming mail I am getting over the past few days, I need to answer Martin’s third bearish call.

The first two calls for $1100 did not materialize. In fact, gold twice went in the opposite direction with a fervour.

I do not agree with Martin here and now.

By normal measures, the US dollar is violently oversold. The dollar and gold has been tied whether I like it or not.

There are special circumstances in the dollar now as the Fed has turned the light on domestic QE. I cannot see a significant dollar rally as a result. I also cannot see gold doing worse than chopping into the $1700 range.

If there is anything correct to his bearish prediction, which I doubt, it would take this action to a chop between $1650-1764, but I think we are now moving into the $1700-2111 range.

Martin Armstrong is the master at the long term cyclical events. To abandon gold now to try and buy it cheaper in 60 to 90 days with the world of finance in the condition it is in, is in my mind MADNESS.

Sincerely,
Jim

Posted by & filed under General Editorial, Martin Armstrong.

Dear CIGAs,

It has to be obvious that when I post articles I am in agreement with them or will comment accordingly.

Armstrong has given two important messages herein that I agree with:

1. He has defined currency induced cost push inflation in the condition of debt failure.

2. He indirectly makes the point that gold at $1500 will be looked back at as a bargain, just as $248 gold is now.

This is worth the read, especially its conclusion, which in my words is you have not seen anything in gold yet. What is to come makes all of this a modest dress rehearsal.

So You Thought The Sovereign Debt Crisis Was Over?
Martin Armstrong

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Click here to read the full article…

Posted by & filed under General Editorial, Martin Armstrong.

Dear CIGAs,

Martin Armstrong just wrote a paper on gold titled, "How and When." My response to this article is why?

Why in the world, if you believe that the gold price can go to $5000 and $12,500, as the article says, do you give a damn about the next 90 days?

You must realize that the economic and political damage is already done.
You must realize that the mountain of OTC derivative paper is not going away.
You must realize that all the old legacy assets (broken OTC derivatives) demand to be adjusted at each market turn in order to maintain any semblance that they are serious contracts.
You must realize that this adjustment means adding on new OTC derivatives.
You must realize that this means the mountain of OTC derivative weapons of mass financial destruction can only grow.
You must realize that it is not whether or not QE will continue, it is what it already has done to the Western economies that much higher gold prices will reflect.
You must realize this is not a business problem, but rather a debt problem as it applies to the gold price.
You must realize the monumental change in the Middle East is NOT positive for the West in any manner, shape or form.
You must realize that the change in the Middle East is from some form of government to chaos.
You must realize that the beneficiaries of chaos in the Middle East are Iran and Russia.
You must realize that the main product of the establishment of a no fly zone in Libya is to benefit the Rebels.
You must realize that the rebels are an unknown factor in Libya.
You must realize that a second product of the no fly zone is greater hatred in the Middle East for all things West.
You must realize that the peak production of energy is behind us.
You must realize that the production of energy in chaos will be less than under some form of rule.
You must realize that this combination of monumental Middle East change and peak oil means peak oil is no longer a consideration 10 to 15 years from now, it is now.
You must realize that the Angels (gold prices) are not simple talk but rather a method used by the great market maven, Jesse Livermore.
You must realize that on the next trip to $1444, that price will fall to the long term bull market on gold.
You must realize that $1650, a place where gold will trade, is so low it will be comical looking back from 2015.
You must realize that "QE to Infinity" is not a choice but all there is left in the tool box of the US Fed.
You must realize the truth of today’s comment by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President.
You must realize that what the President of the Federal Reserve Bank fears will occur. 
You must realize no sovereign country needs to go broke.
You must realize they simply refer to QE as policy.
You must realize that it is the currency that breaks, not the country.
You must realize that the point of correctness in the article "How and When" that is true is his $5000 to $12,500 figure and not the prognostications of the next 90 days.

Fed’s Fisher: U.S. debt situation at tipping point
On Tuesday March 22, 2011, 10:43 am EDT
By Marc Jones and Sakari Suoninen

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FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The U.S. debt situation is at a "tipping point," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday, and urged the U.S. central bank to refrain from any further stimulus measures.

"If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent. The question is when," Fisher said in a speech at the University of Frankfurt.

Fisher, seen by economists as one of the most hawkish policymakers within the Fed, said that although debt-cutting measures would be painful, he expected the U.S. to take the necessary actions.

"The short-term negotiations are very important. I look at this as a tipping point."

He said the U.S. economy was now growing under its own steam, but voiced his concerns about building global inflation pressures and said it was now time for the central bank to stop pumping out extra support.

"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more.. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June either by tapering off the bottom of treasuries or by adding another tranche of purchases outright."

More…

Posted by & filed under Martin Armstrong.

My Dear Friends,

If you wish to eliminate the noise that we have been going through in the Irish euro manipulation, I suggest you print out Armstrong’s October 15th article titled "Show me the Money."

His discussion of each important currency is done with a long term chart and technical discussion. Take each currency and staple the two pages together.

Each week review the currencies in terms of the technical discussions and implications.

Regards,
Jim

Click image to open the article in PDF format

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