Posts Categorized: Jim’s Mailbox

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“We” are in the crosshairs…

CIGA JB

Youtube and Facebook Are Purging Truthers, Using “Conspiracy Theories” as the Excuse
February 27, 2018

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Buz,

…”come and take it” now comes to mind!

Bill

Bill/Jim,

You KNOW that this was NOT crafted AFTER the Florida shooting…..like the “Patriot” Act was crafted years before 9/11, this removal of the 2nd Amendment was crafted a long time ago just for a time such as this.

This bill makes almost ALL guns ILLEGAL.

CIGA Buz

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5087/text

JB,

Only the mentally unstable won’t see through this one JB. Problem is, the mentally unstable may actually be the majority at this point!

Best,

Bill

Google Appears to Remove All Shopping Search Results for Guns — Even Water Guns, ‘Guns and Roses,’ ‘Burgundy’
February 27, 2018

Update: As of late Tuesday afternoon, Google has restored many of the Google Shopping search results discussed in this article, such as water guns. Certain search terms like “AR-15” and “revolver” still display no results. The original article follows.

Google has removed search results for any product that contains the word “gun” in it, including water guns, toy guns, the band “Guns and Roses,” and even “burgundy” from its shopping section.

Google has removed results in its shopping tool for a wide range of terms related to firearms, unwittingly censoring completely unrelated items such as music groups and movies whose titles matched filtered terms.

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Well said Kevin!

Bill

Bill, Jim,

QT is about to wag the dead dog of a fake economy. If you listen closely you can hear a sucking sound that isn’t a trade war but the dehydration of the life blood in the stock and bond markets.

Ending March 1, on the asset side looks like the Fed dumped $1.3B in notes and bonds but bought $.374M in inflation indexed TIPs while also dumping $2.0B in mortgages. Total QT about $3.1B. On the liability side they retired some $3.1B in reverse repo’s thereby putting the securities back into the hands of those institutions who appear to be selling them in competition with the Fed. This is still a smidgins compared to what is on the agenda for 2018 and 2019.

Knowing in 2018 that Fed has claimed that it would reduce its balance sheets by $20 billion per month ($5.0B/wk) from the start of January ’18, the recent reduction is still way short. And looking into the abyss of the remainder of the 2018 where Fed QT reaches $50B/month, that sucking sound isn’t a trade war but the life blood of the stock and bond markets.

For all of 2018, Fed QT will add up to $420b ($8B/wk). Add that to

another $420B in additional net Treasury debt issued and the number is staggering. But it gets better. Add that to the $530b of ECB QE here in 2017 but not coming in 2018 due to the taper, and markets face about $1.4T of CB tightening and new government debt issued in 2018.

2019 faces another $1.4T of tightening from the Fed and ECB relative to 2017 not including new net issuance of Fed debt. And now BOJ is talking about ending its QE in April 2019.

Soon the markets will realize that what they thought was real was only a mirage. What they thought was water was only the CB’s pissing down their back.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

CIGA Kevin

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

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Good and logical point JB but logic doesn’t count anymore!

Bill

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Dear Mark,

DRS direct registration system means exactly what it says. It means direct and eliminates a host of morons. It eliminates the broker and the company, you are registered with the transfer agent only. Co-transfer agents is a new one for me as how can you be registered with two transfer agents if the left hand does not inform the right hand on there exact moment your enter for exit?

It sounds to me as if many people have repeatedly given the wrong information about DRS about which they know nothing. I can not speak for UPS charges except to say they are only a very expensive delivery company having nothing to do with your securities except a guarantee to timely delivery and insurance available.

Direct means exactly what it says. You get a statement direct from the transfer agent only. Your instructions go to the transfer agent. The transfer agent has no legal interest in your shares. The transfer agent simply records your name address and shares owned officially.

The cost of the transfer agent if handled properly is absolutely minimal ($10?). You never mix your broker with the direct registration transfer agent except to order the broker to put your shares into direct registration. You do not give your broker any further instructions.

Now if you want your certificates you inform the “company you are invested in” and generally without charge your shares arrive at your home in only days, not week or months. It does cost $500 if your company does not participate with Computershare. This $500 has been THE greatest inflation since 2006 when across the board it cost only $10.

If you want to sell them immediately you instruct the transfer agent of your brokers number and your account number and generally on the same day your shares are back into your brokers account for you via simple computer instructions one to the other. If for some reason minutes are important to you, you call the transfer agent and instruct your shares be liquidated to the transfer agent who is not a broker but it will be a market order.

The transfer agent does not keep your funds but sees they are bank wired according to your written instruction that can delivered by any means including the “ The Puppy Express.”

It is so easy that no stock broker can understand it.

The excuse your instructions or whatever fell into a puddle or snowbank in Florida smells like bull s—t to me.

If your problem still exists start all over again. The moron factor is what you are dealing with. As in anything you do, including valet park your car, means you can always run into the moron factor. You can confidently assume your broker is the first moron, the CFC company secretary might be a moron. Usually the transfer agent does so little of which DRS is one thing if the person is not a new hire they are not morons.

Starting over again means only one question of your broker. Did he or she get confirmation from their back office people the instructions that you wanted DRS was acted upon your brokers computer instructions should have been on the same day and that would start the process on the same day. Letter writing and large charges are the creation of your broker to dissuade you from taking your stock out of their control and balance sheet.

You are not FUBAR but your instruction never got there MFWIC. Maybe he/she was in a puddle or snow bank in Florida or worse a Snow Flake.

If you are not at your therapist for broker induced tension (BIT) or drug store for valium you might need two telephones at once. Me on one and your collection of morons on the other

Jim Sinclair

Jim,

This has become a complete disaster.

CEF shares held in DRS were withdrawn from AST without advising me.

I was told that they would show up in Computershare.

Computershare said they were co-transfer agents with TMX and the shares would show up in Computershare.

They advised me to contact TMX directly.

After countless calls to TMX, they advised me to complete a letter of transmittal and include the original DRS advice.

They wanted originals, no fax or email. I sent it via USPS. They then advised me that they dropped it in a puddle or snow bank and I had to send another one.

That’s $43 each. They finally got the 2nd one 10 days later.

They advised me that it would take 10-20 business days to process.

I have been calling daily, Sprott, Computershare, and TMX.

Now I am told that the paperwork was processed 3 days ago and if I don’t get the advice in 30 days call them.

This has been a real mess. And I still don’t have an advice showing I own the stocks.

TMX customer service sucks.

Maybe, this DRS is not such a good idea.

You might want to advise your readers that there is a potential problem there.

Regards,

CIGA,

Mark

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True answer? Courtesy of CIGA Paula.

Bill

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CIGA Ron with another true story!

Bill

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Wolfgang,

NOTHING will matter…until all of a sudden it does!

Best,

Bill

Jim/Bill,

You can no longer make an educated judgment on the direction of any market.

Not even using technical charting or fundamental analysis. 

Hell, even macro scenarios are becoming useless.

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(As could markets today!)

Everything today is driven by computer algorithms and unless you are privy to their pre-programmed directives, you are at a disadvantage.

It’s not only the retail investor who is confronted with this dilemma, but the professional as well.  (Simply note the number major hedge funds losing money, large amounts of money, for the first time in over 15 years.  And this is in a bull market!)

Not to be left out, the Fed is also at a disadvantage.  It’s painted itself into a corner.  They’ve flooded the world with so much liquidity that numerous bubbles have formed in every market.  The danger here is these markets are no longer displaying reality.  They are at the mercy of massive cash flows.  The Fed can no longer rely on economic principles to make judgments and/or forecasts.  Everything has become distorted and historical indicators are no longer dependable.

Interest rates, for example, have lost their natural and reliable steering function and signaling properties.  They have been fully distorted by QE and left the Fed flying blind.

Looking at the massive stock and bond rallies over the past decade, you would think we are in nirvana with natural economic laws repealed.

-Supply and demand does not matter.

-Money supply does not matter.

-Revenues and profitability no longer matter.

-Credit risk has become an anachronism.

-Relevance of interest rates in interrelated markets has become obscure.

This latter point is especially important.  Mortgages may be given irresponsibly, debt accumulation by individuals and corporations alike may be falsely comforting, municipalities my feel confident in undertaking new projects based on “fantasy” interest rate levels, pension funds may be forced to undertake risk investments to maintain payouts (our first hint was in the XIV ETN collapse).  I’m sure you get the message.

Risks have become mispriced and present a clear and present danger to our entire financial system.  (refer to the 2007 MBS and CDS debacle).

There is only a one way mindset today……everything can only go up.

(Hear that, Isaac Newton?  Redo your experiments)

At least the Asian officials come right out and state their intent to support markets at all costs.  But here, in the good old U.S.A. , the retailer investor (and hedge fund) is left wondering.  People get a reassuring feeling that perhaps the Fed will protect them from any decline. 

It’s called “BTFD”.

It’s called “bad news is good news and good news is good news”. 

After all, it’s been over a decade since markets were allowed to decline.

Plunge Protection Team, Working Group on Financial Markets, 33 Maiden Lane , have all become synonymous with the Fed’s herculean efforts to defy gravity. 

But one day, out of the blue without any warning, “shit” will happen and the natural order of things will be restored.  This how being blindsided happens.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Robert digging a little deeper for us. He is absolutely correct with this one, the “money” does not exist…!

Bill

Bill/Jim,

Not just in Australia, but in Europe AND in the US the trend is clear, when the next banking crisis hits the banks will be on their own with no bailouts because the money is not there to do so.

Rates are rising and when the scope of the coming crisis in Europe becomes more clear, rates will skyrocket.

Smart money will move to private banks or less risking institutions like local banks or credit unions soon. Assuming it still can be moved.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5989

Cheers,

Robert

CIGA Norma sends us a potential “bombshell” if they actually follow through! But we knew this already and no one dared speak of it…?

Bill

DHS To Publish Proof Of Massive Dem Voter Fraud In 2016 – Qanon
February 20, 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) together with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI are planning to publish in March a study of the 2016 elections that will demonstrate massive Democratic Party voter fraud of a magnitude sufficient to have influenced election outcomes.

On Jan. 3, 2018, President Trump signed an executive order disbanding the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, largely because states controlled by the Democrats refused to cooperate.

Many Democrats breathed a sigh of relief, thinking President Trump had given up his effort to uncover and correct the decades of Democratic Party voter fraud.

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I was just last evening thinking about crypto currency versus the dollar, both of which have zero backing.

Jim

Jim/Bill,

I agree with the notion that Venezuela’s new crypto currency is just another form of “Control Fraud”.

But let us not forget one important factor, very, very few financial instruments today are backed by an underlying commodity.

We are all familiar with….

-the Comex deception, especially with gold and silver,

-the ETF’s and ETN’s stated, but unrequired, backings,

-the crypto currencies,

-the U.S. Dollar (backed only by faith), etc.

Venezuela has used all it gold to pay maturing debt and in fact, has become an importer of oil to meet its contract obligations.

So yes, there is fraud here. Inherently, yes. But not by U.S. financial standards. In oour world, promises appear more valuable than physical security.

But the following is a bit misleading and I must take issue with it:

“The notion that China or Russia will issue a gold-backed currency attracts considerable attention, but a currency is only “backed by gold” if a foreign financial institution can convert their yuan or rubles into gold upon demand. If there is no transparent, easy mechanism for foreign holders of the currency to convert their currency into gold upon demand, then the currency isn’t actually backed by anything: it’s simply a form of control fraud.”

The new Petro Yuan, debuting on March 26 this year, IS convertible on demand into gold. It is but the first foray into a gold backed currency. And Russia is not far behind.

Binding a currency to gold reserves, and making it readily convertible, is simply a self imposed restriction on profligate spending. A hard ass budget if you will. Something America should seriously consider.

Because academicians state that such strict budgetary controls prohibits tinkering with monetary and fiscal stimuli and leaves the country to free market forces, doesn’t make it right. Free markets come with a sin wave of economic momentum. The have ups and downs. Prosperity and recessions. It’s only when the tinker begins that you encounter serious depressions. Never forget that!

Either you believe in the free market or you don’t. Make up your mind.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Venezuela’s New Cryptocurrency: Just Another Form Of Control Fraud
February 23, 2018

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If a currency can’t be converted on demand into the underlying commodity, it’s not “backed by oil,” it’s just another form of control fraud.

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image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

The broke and broken country of Venezuela appears to be the first nation-state to issue a cryptocurrency token (the petro) as a means of escaping the financial black hole that’s consuming its economy: Maduro Launches Oil-Backed Crypto “For The Welfare Of Venezuela”.

For context, here is a chart of the black market (i.e. real-world) value of the Venezuela’s fiat currency, the bolivar: a 100,000 bolivar note is worth somewhere around 40 cents USD (US dollar), i.e. near zero. (Venezuela maintains a fantasy-official USD/bolivar exchange rate that has no relation to the actual purchasing-power value of Venezuela’s fiat currency.)

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

President Trump Has 3 Questions For Jeff Session(s)
February 21, 2018

President Trump is not letting up in his efforts to see ‘justice’ with regard years of ‘Russian meddling’ accusations and Deep State intervention.

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In a relatively calmly-worded tweet this morning, Trump pressured Attorney General Jeff Session (sic.) to open an investigation into the Obama administration over Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

“Question: If all of the Russian meddling took place during the Obama Administration, right up to January 20th, why aren’t they the subject of the investigation?”

“Why didn’t Obama do something about the meddling? Why aren’t Dem crimes under investigation?

Ask Jeff Session!”

Question: If all of the Russian meddling took place during the Obama Administration, right up to January 20th, why aren’t they the subject of the investigation? Why didn’t Obama do something about the meddling? Why aren’t Dem crimes under investigation? Ask Jeff Session!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 21, 2018

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Our friend Robert with a very interesting observation!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

An interesting impact but it overlooks what is likely driving the increase in LIBOR rates. The repatriation of all of this cash held off-shore is going to be much hard than companies and their investors think.

Consider the impact on the banks where that off-shore cash has been held. Most of them will have leveraged the cash by 10+ times, and now that cash will not be there to support those loans. Watch how interest rates are going to rise in Europe and Asia particularly as that cash is repatriated. Few companies are the cash generating machines that Apple is. There’s going to be some very hurting banks.

Robert

Libor-OIS Blowing Out On Rising Repatriation Concerns, Collapsing Front-End Funding
February 21, 2018

While trader attentions have been focused on more conventional risk indicators like equities, yields and bonds spreads in the aftermath of the February VIX eruption, a less followed – if perhaps far more informative indicator – the USD Libor-OIS spread has been blowing up, widening to 32.7bp – the most since last Feb. 22 – as Libor sets higher for the 11th straight session, while commercial paper rates for financials are also rising as more issuers have been selling longer-dated obligations, and moving closer on the curve.

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So is there another dollar shortage quietly forming behind the scenes?

As it turns out, the answer may be yes, and the culprit is the same “echo taper” discussed here last year (and recently by Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar) , when we commented on the impact repatriation would have on rates, and especially the front-end.

Overnight, Bank of America reminds us that one of the biggest stories of 2018 for high grade credit is overseas cash repatriation as part of tax reform.

It is such a simple – yet powerful – story. During the ongoing 4Q earnings season we have now heard from most of the largest holders of overseas cash.  Although specific plans are obviously “work in progress” some clear patterns have emerged.

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Jim/Bill,

Gold drops $50 and the markets take notice and panic.

Bitcoin drops $1,000 and there is nary a blink.

But there is “golden” lining to this mentality.

The twinkle you may see in my eyes comes from the change in the market’s mindset to prices.

Years ago, reasonable expectations dictated moves in gold that were minimal compared to today’s equities and crytos. Were you to mention $5,000 gold, you would be laughed at and given a “tin foil” hat for your presumptions.

Reasonable expectations. A key concept when judging price movements.

Thousand dollars plus per share for the likes of Amazon, Google, Priceline, etc. makes $1,300 gold look surreptitiously cheap!

The public is becoming acclimated to the high numbers and high volatility and at some point, will recognize that $5,000 or more per ounce is not as outlandish as was perceived years ago. Much in the same way $35 to $800 gold in 1980 and more recently, $250 to $1,900 gold, took the investor market by surprise.

This all assuming no havoc (dollar collapse, debt collapse, derivative meltdown, hyperinflation, etc.) rears its head.

Then we can witness a top in prices that could defy our imagination.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

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JB,

This make a twofer today for judicial watch!

Best,

Bill

Judicial Watch Asks “What Is The FBI Hiding In Its War To Protect Comey?
February 21, 2018

As the James Comey saga continues to unfold, the James Comey legend continues to unravel. The more we learn about his involvement in the deep state’s illicit targeting of President Trump, the more reason the American people have to question both his motives and his management as director of the FBI, the now-disgraced agency he headed before Trump fired him on May 16, 2017. Comey has left a trail of suspicious activities in his wake.

Comey now looms large over a burgeoning constitutional crisis that could soon overshadow Watergate at its worst. To deepen the crisis even further, it now appears some of Comey’s former FBI and Justice Department colleagues continue to protect him from accountability.

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Three suspicious activities stand out, all intertwined: The so-called Comey Memos, Comey’s controversial testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee and Comey’s book deal.

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Courtesy of GG.

Jim

Despite Pullback, Gold’s Mega-Breakout Is About To Unfold!
February 20, 2018

After what has been a chaotic start to 2018, gold’s historic mega-bullish breakout is close to unfolding!

February 21 (King World News) – Many KWN readers around the world had been wondering why gold has been in such a tight trading range with frequent takedowns, so we published this piece last Friday. What we did not include was the (updated as of Feb. 15th) look at the daily gold chart which showed a cup and handle breakout close at hand, despite the recent volatility (see chart below).

Daily Chart “Cup & Handle” Will Propel Massive Gold Breakout!

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This makes common sense in a world without any. Higher debt + higher rates=higher debt service payments. The only question is, how high is too high?

Bill

Hi Bill,

Jim thought you might like this piece.

Best,

Mike

Myrmikan Research End Game
February 14, 2018

Myrmikan erroneously called the end of this credit cycle in the summer of 2015.

China’s stock market had cracked, and the world was following the classic model of how credit bubbles pop, repeating a pattern established in the nineteenth century. The fractional reserve money creation process would push yields in the London money center artificially low. Low rates would encourage domestic malinvestment and prompt capital to go abroad in search of higher returns in sketchy locations. Overcapacity always ends a boom, usually affecting the credit periphery first because the most thinly capitalized are the least able to bear the diminution in cash flow that overcapacity brings. As capital began to be wiped out abroad, there would grow a need for liquidity in the money center from those most affected, which would drive interest rates higher, and thus the contagion would spread to the center.

The 2008 panic was a variation of this story in that the periphery was not some place like Argentina or Poyais (a fictional country of which Scottish adventurer Gregor MacGregor purported to be king in order to raise credit in London) but the U.S. subprime housing market. Nevertheless, the mechanism was the same: despite the Federal Reserve’s continual claims that it had “contained” the risks, losses in subprime housing credit crept inwards toward the center until the fractional reserve process suddenly reversed and nearly took down the global banking system.

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