Posts Categorized: Jim’s Mailbox

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Jim/Bill,

Did you hear what Rosanne said????

Dave

https://www.rt.com/usa/428289-kim-kardashian-trump-meeting/

The world markets are in free fall Italy up sets bond market Gross big looser.

Next day every thing is a OK back to up markets every where.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/the-us-economy-suddenly-looks-like-its-unstoppable.html

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/06/01/atlanta-fed-boosts-second-quarter-gdp-forecast-to-4-8/

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/black-unemployment-rate-hits-new-record-low-in-may

 

https://www.rt.com/business/428245-india-iran-dollar-rupee-oil/

 

https://www.rt.com/business/428216-us-china-russia-rogers/

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-30/mattis-us-will-confront-china-steady-drumbeat-amerian-ships-over-weaponized-islands

 

https://www.rt.com/news/428523-qatar-s400-saudi-threat/

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-ignore-us-sanctions-iran-venezuela-minister-131141193.html

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-30/ukraine-staged-murder-of-russian-journalist-critical-of-kremlin

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-31/its-stock-crashes-all-time-low-shocked-deutsche-bank-issues-statement

 

https://www.globalresearch.ca/video-we-were-close-to-direct-conflict-between-russia-and-the-us-inside-syria-bashar-assad/5642495

Exposed: The Quiet Global Panic Into Gold
May 30, 2018

. . .

China, Russia, and Turkey in particular have boosted their central bank gold holdings substantially since 2007, namely by 307% (China), 408% (Russia), and 486% (Turkey). In Q4 2007 China, Russia, Turkey, and India together held 1,524 tons of gold, which represented just 5.1% of total official gold reserves at the time. In Q4 2017 their combined reserves amounted to 4,804 tons, or 14.3% of total official gold reserves.

King World News note:  Keep in mind that the US economy is in stagflation and when the United States went through stagflation in the 1970s, gold soared 25.5-times in price and the price of silver went up 38-times.  When the pendulum swings in gold’s favor and away from stocks, the upside gains in the gold and silver markets will be breathtaking.

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USA in a Debt Trap Death Spiral
June 1, 2018

The US economy and its financial structures have never recovered from the great financial meltdown of 2008 despite the passage of ten years. Little discussion has been given to the fact that the Republican Congress last year abandoned the process of mandatory budget cuts or automatic sequestration that had been voted in a feeble attempt to rein in the dramatic rise in US government debt. That was merely an added factor in what soon will be recognized as a classic debt trap. What is now looming over not just the US economy but also the global financial system is a crisis that could spell the end of the post-1944 dollar system.

. . .

Moody’s Credit Rating has just issued a warning that, barring some sort of miracle, as US interest rates rise, and they are, as much as 22% of US corporations that are being kept alive borrowing at historically low interest, not only in shale oil but in construction and utilities, so-called “zombie” corporations, will face an avalanche of mass defaults on their debt. Moody’s writes that, “low interest rates and investor appetite for yield has pushed companies into issuing mounds of debt that offer comparatively low levels of protection for investors.” The Moody’s report goes on to state some alarming numbers: since 2009, the level of global non-financial junk-rated companies has soared by 58%, representing $3.7 trillion in outstanding debt, the highest ever. Some 40%, or $2 trillion, are rated B1 or lower. Since 2009, US corporate debt has increased by 49%, hitting a record total of $8.8 trillion. Much of that debt has been used to fund stock repurchases by the companies to boost their stock price, the main reason for the unprecedented Wall Street stock market bubble.

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This is much bigger than anyone understands.
The Chinese will soon own all the mineral rich African counties. Not squeak out of Washington because they simply do not understand that when this one item is done, the world of technology manufacturing belongs China. We seem to sheep all walking towards a cliff, with no intelligent life here.
All smart phones and bombs will carry the label “Made in China.”
Jim

The world moves on while Americans get bread and circus.

Dave

De-Dollarization Escalates: “African Economy Needs More Usage Of Chinese Yuan”
June 2, 2018

The world’s push towards de-dollarization continues to accelerate as Americans go about their daily lives worrying more about blasphemous comedians, participation trophies, and Kim and Kanye’s traitorous behavior.

From yuan-denominated oil futures (and soon to be yuan-denominated metals contracts) to Europe’s decision to use Yuan to pay for Iranian oil; and from non-dollar settlement systems for Russia/Chinese trade to Turkey’s call for citizens to dump the dollar, it appears each action of the Trump administration deepens the distrust in the dollar hegemony, coalescing the world against Washington’s reserve currency unipolar order.

All of which leads to this…

In a well-placed interview in China’s Xinhua news – the official press agency of the People’s Republic of China – officials from Africa are seen calling for more yuanification of the massive continent’s economies.

There has been a general consensus among some eastern and southern African countries that there should be more usage of the Chinese yuan in the region because of China’s growing influence in business and trade, a financial expert said Thursday.

Executive director of the Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI) Caleb Fundanga said a forum for financial experts earlier in the week had agreed that there was need to use the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency because China was playing an active role in their economies.

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Russia knows it is not a worthless relic.

Dave

Russia To Double Gold Extraction Becoming World’s Second Biggest Producer
June 3, 2018

Major Russian gold mining companies are planning to almost double production. The increase could make Russia the world’s second largest producer of the precious metal.

The country is currently third in the global rating of gold miners after Australia and China. However, that could change in less than a decade, according to Mikhail Leskov, deputy CEO at the Moscow-based Institute of Geotechnology, as quoted by Vedomosti.

In 2017, Russia extracted 8.8 million ounces, accounting for 8.3 percent of total global production, according to data by the UK consultancy Metals Focus, as quoted by the media. The newly discovered gold deposits will reportedly allow miners to increase extraction by half in seven years. By 2030, extraction is expected to grow by nearly eight million ounces.

Earlier this year, state exploration company Rosgeo said that a new discovery, holding some 900 tons of silver and gold, was found in the Republic of Bashkortostan. According to initial estimates, there are some 87 tons-worth of gold in the area. Silver deposits, meanwhile, are estimated at 787 tons.

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Courtesy of Dave.

Jim

A Whopping 95.9 Million Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force
June 1, 2018

Record low unemployment rate my fat ass!!!

Don’t believe the BLS bullshit. Scanning the Household data proves it is bullshit. If the economy was booming the number of people not in the labor force would be declining, as discouraged people came back into the work force. From May 2017 through September 2017 that was actually happening. The number of people not in the labor force declined by 558,000. The participation rate increased to 63%. This was definitely positive economic news.

Since September 2017 the unemployment rate has supposedly fallen from 4.2% to 3.8%. Sounds awesome. But it’s bullshit. Just the facts ma’am:

New jobs added since September 2017 – 1.15 million Number of people who have left the labor force since September 2017 – 1.435 million

The participation rate has dropped back to 62.7%. The average number of new jobs added over the last eight months is a pitiful 144,000 per month, while 179,000 per month have left the labor force.

The reported unemployment rate of 3.8% is pure propaganda, not supported by the reality on the ground. Millions of Americans don’t leave the labor force when jobs are plentiful and the economy is humming along. So it goes.

Via Zero Hedge

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Courtesy of Dave.

Jim

Diplomatic Humiliation As US Vetoes Resolution on Protecting Palestinians
June 2, 2018

“Information Clearing House” –  The United States vetoed Friday a UN draft resolution calling for measures to protect Palestinians after more than 100 were killed by Israeli fire during protests at the Gaza fence.

Ten countries including China, France and Russia voted in favor of the draft. Four countries – Britain, Ethiopia, the Netherlands and Poland – abstained.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

 

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

‘Pack Your Bags’: Italy’s New Interior Minister Talks Tough On Migrants

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Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Our friend Dan Kurz with some perspective on the upcoming outperformance for silver.

Bill

PDF

 

Jim/Bill,

This is right out of George Orwell’s 1984 – “War is peace”.

Dave

US State Department Tells Syria What It Can and Can’t Do on Its Own Soil
May 29, 2018

The US State Department has warned Syria against launching an offensive against terrorist positions in southern Syria. The statement claims that the American military will respond if Syrian forces launch an operation aimed at restoring the legitimate government’s control over the rebel-held areas, including the territory in southwestern Syria between Daraa and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Washington is issuing orders to a nation whose leadership never invited America in in the first place! The very idea that another country would tell the internationally recognized Syrian government that it cannot take steps to establish control over parts of its own national territory is odd and preposterous by any measure.

State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert said Washington would respond with “firm and appropriate measures.” But does the US have any legal grounds for responding with any measures at all? What is it actually doing in Syria? And wait a minute … President Trump recently solemnly promised to leave! Indeed, there is no justification for the US military presence, especially after the Islamic State ceased to be a factor influencing the events there, once that force had been reduced to insignificance. It would have been totally routed a long time ago if America had not intervened, allowing the remnants of the militant group to survive. Wasn’t it President Trump who said many times that the only justification for the US presence in Syria was the need to fight the Islamic State and nobody else? Wasn’t it he who happily declared the final victory over the terrorist group? That mission has been accomplished and yet… the US is still there, issuing warnings and instructions that others must comply with or else.

The statement calls on Moscow to use its influence with the Syrian government to prevent the liberation of the captured areas in accordance with last year’s de-escalation agreement between Russia, the US, and Jordan. Moscow has also called on Washington not to destabilize Syria with missile and air strikes and to do something about the humanitarian catastrophe in southwestern Syria, but is anyone listening? Last month, Russian President Putin said in a statement that any cooperation with the US in Syria had been suspended after the April attacks, which the Russian government viewed as an act of aggression against a sovereign state. It was not Moscow who started the whole thing, rendering all previous arrangements null and void. Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on April 18 that Washington was ready for an armed clash with Russia in Syria. This statement did not go unnoticed in Moscow.

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Jim/Bill,

Agreed. Nothing makes me more nervous than addressing bad news.

Sometimes denials are confirmation of trouble ahead.

Not always, but sometimes.

“However, the one saving grace is that unlike in 2016, or 2008, Deutsche Bank did not feel it needed to make an official statement addressing the recent stock crash. Because, as traders know all too well, the one thing that assures a banking crisis is imminent is for a bank to promise, plead and vow there is no reason to be worried as no crisis is imminent.

But not anymore, because shortly after 8pm local Frankfurt time, Deutsche Bank’s new CEO – experiencing a bizarre case of dreadful deja vu as his stock crashed to new all time lows – decided to validate everyone’s worst fears by issuing a report addressing “media reports about the regulatory ratings of our US entities” and which after prefacing that “we do not comment on any supervisory ratings as our communication with regulators is confidential”, goes on to comment extensively on the bank’s supervisory ratings.”

And speaking of denials, it appears Morgan Stanley feels it necessary to do so regarding the EU.

Regards,

Wolfgang

 

Art and I were kids once on the NYSE. Scary? Courtesy of JB.

Jim

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Jim/Bill,

Just a thought…..

Doesn’t the U.S. government realize we are presenting China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, et al the gift of cheap gold and silver by capping the price rise at every turn?

Once the East has accumulated the majority of physical precious metals in the world, we will be helpless to do anything about fixing prices, not to mention that we’ll be saddled with uncoverable shorts and a shitload of worthless paper!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It doesn’t take a soothsayer to predict to outcome.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

 

 

Jim/Bill,

I have to humbly disagree with the following statement and the corresponding consensus opinion in the media:

“The second part of the statement was that the FED would start liquidating their bond positions which is the same as a backdoor rate hike. Bonds go down, rates go up. “

Reducing their bond portfolio will NOT cause an increase in interest rates, as the media has embraced.

Certainly if they sold existing holdings in the open market then yes, without a doubt it would.

But they are letting them mature; roll off. So theoretically, the effect on prices, and hence interest rates, would be minimal.

Two key points to remember (one assuming demand remains constant and the other assuming demand wanes):

1- By letting them roll off, (and responsibly NOT issuing new debt) they are creating a scarcity and hence, bond prices will stay elevated, keeping interest rates low.

2- If deficit spending continues, which it inexorably will, then more bonds will need to be issued and sold. Unfortunately, the world is slowly getting indigestion from those massive amounts and with a scarcity of buyers, new issuance will have to be purchased by the Fed to pick up the slack. Otherwise, a rapid loss of faith in US Bonds and by default, a loss of faith in the almighty Dollar, will snowball beyond our control. Hence, Fed price support (increases in their portfolio) will be needed and interest rates will remain depressed.

Unless we have some serious fiscal reckoning and monetary modifications, nothing will change on the interest rate front. And we know how likely that is!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yellen And The Fed Remain TWO FACED
July 13, 2017

Wednesday saw Janet Yellen on the hill for part one of her semiannual testimony before the banking committee, also known as Humphrey Hawkins. The equity markets rallied huge the minute her prepared statement came out, sending the DOW to a new record.

Yellen’s statement was Dovish indicating that they were going to slow on hiking rates, which is being incorrectly interpreted. The second part of the statement was that the FED would start liquidating their bond positions which is the same as a backdoor rate hike. Bonds go down, rates go up.

Metals have managed to rally all week; although the rallies are small, gold has reached the 1220 level, which is the first spot it must get through to start moving higher. Volume has been light which is concerning and must accelerate if this rally is going to continue.

Via Kitco News (article no longer available)

 

Jim/Bill,

There are 2 age old adages that are contradictory in essence:

1)    Markets climb a “wall of worry.”

2)    Markets abhor uncertainty.

Sounds like something the MSM put together so they always have an excuse.

Note the ‘Golden’ Bullshit Protector on the ear:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Always think for yourself and avoid media when at all possible.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

 

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Inside Judicial Watch: Mueller UNMASKED–Featuring Congressman Louie Gohmert
May 24, 2018

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Jim/Bill,

These are today’s markets……

Citi facing criminal charges!

And the stock rises + .84

Go figure.

You’ve got to be fool to place your life savings into a system run by people behind the curtain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Citi, Deutsche Bank, ANZ Face ‘Criminal Cartel’ Charges In Australia
June 1, 2018

Major banks Citigroup Inc. C, +0.78% Deutsche Bank AG DB, -0.45% DBK, +2.52% and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. ANZ, -1.51% will all face “criminal cartel charges” in Australia, the country’s consumer watchdog said Friday. Prosecutors in the country are expected to bring the charges against those financial institutions as well as a number of individuals as a result of an investigation, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said in a statement. “The charges will involve alleged cartel arrangements relating to trading in ANZ shares following an ANZ institutional share placement in August 2015,” ACCC Chairman Rod Sims said, in a statement. “It will be alleged that ANZ and the individuals were knowingly concerned in some or all of the conduct.” The charges are believed to stem from a placement of 80.8 million shares by ANZ that was underwritten by Deutsche Bank, Citigroup and JP Morgan JPM, +1.19% according to a BBC report. . None of the banks could immediately be reached for comment.

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There is no such thing as a settlement in fiat, it is mathematically impossible to do.

JB

Modi’s Whopping $13 Billion PSU Bank Recap Almost Entirely Wiped Out By Losses, Says Fitch
June 1, 2018

Losses by state-run banks have almost entirely wiped out the $13 billion capital infusion by the government, and the situation is unlikely to improve in the current fiscal year, ratings agency Fitch said today. The big losses will pressure the banks’ viability ratings as well, it warned.

“Cumulative losses at the state banks were large enough to wipe out almost all of the government’s capital

injections of USD 13 billion in FY18, and weak performance is likely to continue in the coming year,” it said.

The poor results are due to revision in the non-performing assets (NPA) recognition which is accelerating bad

loan recognition, it said, adding that the February 12 revision is part of a clean-up that should improve the health

of the bank sector over the long term.

The revisions have led to a major uptick in the credit costs for state-run lenders to 4.3 per cent in FY18, from 2.5

per cent in the year-ago period, while NPAs for the overall banking sector rose faster than expected to 12.1 per cent from the 9.3 per cent.

For state-run lenders, the average NPAs shot up to 14.5 per cent, with IDBI Bank, UCO Bank and Indian Overseas

Bank having their NPAs at above 25 per cent. Around 19 of the 21 state-run banks reported losses for the fiscal, including country’s largest lender SBI, while the otherwise resilient private sector banks were also not immune, with Axis Bank reporting its first quarterly loss.

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Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Courtesy of JB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Morgan’s latest interviews with CPM, BMG, and The World Gold Council

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

President Donald J. Trump Is Reforming the Civil Service to Work for the American People
May 25, 2018

“To empower our civil servants to best help others, the government must always operate more efficiently and more securely.”

President Donald J. Trump

PUTTING TAXPAYERS FIRST: President Trump signed an Executive Order requiring agencies to negotiate better union contracts in a more efficient and transparent manner.

    The order directs agencies to negotiate better contracts with Federal unions, holds down costs, promotes performance and accountability, and creates a Labor Relations Working Group.

    It will eliminate years of costly drawn-out bargaining by encouraging agencies to conclude labor negotiations in less than a year.

        Agencies pay for union negotiators’ salaries, so it hurts taxpayers when bargaining drags on for years. The salaries for union negotiators cost $16 million in 2016 alone.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Eurocurrency 20 Year Anniversary Falls Into Chaos
May 29, 2018

Good Morning,

   We start our Tuesday morning trading view with a sharply higher US Dollar as the actions in Europe start to accelerate into chaos at the same time Gold continues to be held in check with its trade at $1298.00, down $5.70 with its low reported as $1,294.60 the exact low of Mondays trade sometime before 6am pst.  Silver is down as well with its trade at $16.39, down 15.6 cents and at its low of $16.37. The US Dollar has been the bankers “go to” safety trade for decades now as we see the value climb regardless of the nation’s internal issues with its trade at 94.755, up 62.5 points with its new all-time high for the year at 94.975. All the Dollar has to do now is go up another 15 points to blow out the resistance point created last October.

  The all-important (at least to this writer) May delivery numbers for Silver have changed with the Open Interest now at 184 contracts, down from yesterday’s quote of 949 contracts which was the total from Friday as well. This is a drop of some 755 contracts with today’s close being the absolute last trading day for this delivery cycle. These deliveries matter immensely to the supply and demand side of everything and the City of London is right smack in the middle (as usual??).  Silver’s overall OI is now at 205,489, down 855 contracts from Monday’s partial trade day which is all of the delivery notices (755 contracts totaling 3,775,000 troy ounces) plus 100 paper contracts. 

  The crypto world made a turn last night with Btc now at $7,418.95, up $148.95 from yesterday with Ethereum at $555.89 up $20.15 with Litecoin at $120.50, $6.34 cents higher after a weekend of topsy turvy activity in Europe as we have forgotten what it was like when a new currency was added to the mix of central bank planning. 20 years ago this month the Euro-Currency was createdand the entire system absorbed it without hesitation. But when a grass roots idea of a non-government backed trading idea surfaced, a full force effort by the creators of debt instruments used everything in their arsenal to stop its advancements but only this year. Now all the governing institutions out there are creating the rules so this system can be absorbed as well, is it working? Who really knows, but it is an idea that can work as we all see the advancements towards a no cash system.

   This same group of fiat creators now have a far worse problem. Not only are they fighting a concept in the making (finite and infinite cryptos), their institutions are struggling with large traders leaving the Euro because the rules created are to support the failings of multiple nations central banks who are all holding a currency that is being abandoned from the ground up. Now the question goes much higher when one asks “who owns the most” debt of a failing nation who can no longer support the financial burden it is responsible for? Everything debt ridden is being affected not only in Europe but here in the USA as well since our debt instruments here in US$ land have become the safe haven (???). Yesterday is was reported that the newly elected president“vetoed” the appointment of anti-euro professor Paolo Savona as Ministry of the Economy completely upsetting what the populace wanted in the first place, economic FREEDOM from laws not created by their own countrymen!! Of course the lashing of teeth is everywhere with all of Italy on watch to see what happens next as the Italian president continues to obey the multinational leaders instead of his own people who are now yelling Impeachment!

  At the same time Italy is generating news, all of Britain is finally seeing what us Silver and Gold traders have been dealing with for decades, a rigged news service not worthy of anyone’s time as a freelance news reporter attempted to report on a pedophilia case involving members of government. The support for this individual has spread over to Australia as well as we see a government protecting abusers…

  All this activity is not healthy for any market or anyone on the wrong side of any trade, especially when a president makes null and void an agreement by its people….Guillotines and Gold may be the topics discussed by our children after this all goes into correction. So keep your metals close, and as always … Stay Strong!

J. Johnson

 

Wolfgang with a little bit of sarcasm for us!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

The Fed is discussing possible easing of the Volker Rule today.

So, we now feel confident that what happened 10 years ago, won’t happen again?

The Rule was only a temporary respite from an orgy of wild and reckless speculation?

‘The Volcker Rule banned high-risk activity known as proprietary trading. The practice had become a huge money-making machine for Wall Street mega-banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Proprietary trading allowed big banks to tap depositors’ money in federally-insured bank accounts — essentially borrowing against that money and using it for investments.

“Weakening the Volcker Rule means allowing banks to play with other people’s money again. That was the casino economy before the crisis,” says Ed Mierzwinski, a senior director at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, a consumer advocacy organization.’

Lord help us.

Batten down the hatches, here we go again!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Volcker Rule Changes: Fed Moves To Ease Limits On Risky Bank Trading
May 30, 2018

The Federal Reserve is proposing to ease a rule aimed at defusing the kind of risk-taking on Wall Street that helped trigger the 2008 financial meltdown.

The Fed under new leadership on Wednesday unveiled proposed changes to the Volcker Rule, which bars banks’ risky trading bets for their own profit with depositors’ money. The high-risk activity is known as proprietary trading.

The proposed changes would match the strictest applications of the rule to banks that do the most trading – 18 banks with at least $10 billion in trading assets and liabilities. They account for 95 percent of all U.S. bank trading and include some foreign banks with U.S. operations, Fed officials said.

Less stringent requirements would apply to banks that do less trading. The idea is to make it easier for banks to comply with the Volcker Rule without sacrificing the banks’ safety and soundness, the officials said.

“The proposal will address some of the uncertainty and complexity that now make it difficult for firms to know how best to comply, and for supervisors to know that they are in compliance,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a meeting of the Fed governors. “Our goal is to replace overly complex and inefficient requirements with a more streamlined set of requirements.”

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…Or, the economy is really not as strong as we are being told? Courtesy of CIGA Ralph.

Bill

A Worrying Turn Ahead for Auto Loans
May 29, 2018

Concerns over consumer debts have abated lately as credit growth has slowed and the U.S. economy has improved. Trouble could still be lurking.

The New York Federal Reserve’s quarterly report on household debt earlier in May showed total consumer debt grew by 3.8% from a year earlier in the first quarter, significantly slower than the average 4.5% over the previous four quarters, thanks largely to a pullback in auto loans. Overall delinquency rates also declined slightly because of improvements in student loans and mortgages.

But in the two areas where lenders have been most aggressive over the past few years—credit cards and auto loans—delinquencies have continued to mount. Credit-card loans that are more than 90 days delinquent rose to 8% of total balances in the first quarter from 7.5% a year earlier, according to Fed data. The portion of delinquent auto loans rose to 4.3% from 3.8%.

Although the volume of auto-loan originations has slowed, terms remain loose. The average length of a new loan rose to 69.2 months in April compared with 65.5 months in April of 2013, according to Edmunds.com. A flood of cars coming off leases also has pushed down used-car prices. In April used-car prices fell 1.6% from a year earlier, the biggest decline since March of 2009, according to Labor Department inflation data.

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Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

This was exactly what we were talking about on Saturday.

Dave

Sanctioning the World, the US Inadvertently ‘Locks & Launches’ Multipolarism
May 28, 2018

. . .

In short, US friction with China is on an upwards trajectory, and may spike further, were Washington now to threaten the Korean peninsula with military action of some nature.

Friction is not confined to the US relationship with China however. Trump’s conversion to full-court ‘neo-Americanism’ (see here), it seems, has put Washington at odds with the World at large: Trade wars (China, Russia, EU & Japan), sanctions (Russia, Iran, et al), currency wars (Turkey, Iran Russia), etcetera, etcetera. This level and breadth of friction is not sustainable. The psychic tension must lead either to something somehow snapping (explosively) to break the tension, or to a marked U-turn in language and behaviour that relieves pressures more gently. At the moment we are still in the updraft. Trump has provoked literally everyone (even the usually compliant Europeans), as never before. And, consequently (and inadvertently), has accelerated markedly, the arrival of the incoming new global order – and, by heightening geo-political tension nearly everywhere, has accelerated further steps towards global de-dollarisation.

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Courtesy of Dave.

Bill

Real Patriotism on Memorial Day Means Losing Fewer Soldiers in Meaningless Wars
May 29, 2018

Most people, when thinking of Memorial Day – if they don’t confuse it with Veterans Day – think of the start of the summer season or great sales at the stores and online. Yet the holiday is supposed to honor those who died in America’s wars. Even some of the limited remembrance on TV and in the news is more superficial than deeply reflective.

Perhaps the greatest tribute to those who have made the ultimate sacrifice might be to reduce the number of those who die in future wars. Unfortunately, throughout U.S. history, but especially after the Cold War ended, politicians of both parties have been too quick to send American boys (and now girls) into harm’s way, rather than thinking of war as a last resort – as the nation’s founders did.

The original patriots realized the expenditure of blood and treasure for the leaders’ political goals usually fell to common citizens. The founders believed that war severely undermined the American republic.

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Jim,

Hard to wake up a snowflake without melting them but I guess we can try?

Best

Bill

Dear Bill,

We have known this from day #1.That is that statistics taken from surveys are simply the opinion of corporate executives, concerning future aspects of their business. Since no corporate officer can be a bear on their business future the number always tend towards the positive side. However maybe some snow flakes do not know this. I think this interview deserves posting for the weak of mind.

Jim

Fed relying on biased data that makes ‘B-minus ‘economy’ look like an ‘A+’:James Bianco
May 27, 2018

A veteran market researcher is out with a warning — saying the Federal Reserve is relying too heavily on economic surveys skewed by social media to mold their policies.

According to Bianco Research President James Bianco, most economists mistakenly believe that leading indicators are signaling an “A+” economy that can withstand rising interest rates.

“It’s more like a B- economy,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “It’s not this screaming home run that everybody thinks it is based on the survey data.”

Bianco said social media is creating the bandwagon effect among survey respondents, a psychological phenomenon characterized by people following the herd.

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Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Mark with an important message for us!

Bill

Hi Bill,

Please share this on JSMineset.

Today the people of my old country finally woke up…no more child grooming and taking the British people for fools by the powers that be.

The gates of parliament were well and truly rattled!

A good man who dared to speak out was jailed for reporting the abuse of underage girls, and this is going on nation wide.

Regards,

Mark

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

We at JSMineset agree Chris, this goes to the very top and only a fool would believe it did not have Obama’s blessing. The man did everything in his power to destroy anything and everything good of our once great nation!

Best,

Bill

Dear Bill/Jim,

ZERO OUTED – Growing Consensus: Impeach and Prosecute – When asked this week, whether Obama knew the FBI had planted spies into the Trump presidential campaign, former White House Press Secretary, Ari Fleischer, said, “I guarantee the answer is yes”. Fleischer explained that no FBI Director would dare infiltrate a presidential campaign without the direct approval and authorization of the sitting president.  http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/05/wayne-allyn-root-its-time-to-impeach-the-president-obama/

EXCELLENT 7 MINUTE SUMMARY

CIGA Chris.

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Getting harder and harder to NOT be a believer in the Dollar’s demise.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Russia Finance Minister: We Are Ready To Ditch The Dollar In Favor Of The Euro
May 24, 2018

In a testament to the success of the latest Trump sanctions against Russia, overnight Russian aluminum giant Rusal announced that its chief executive, Aleksandra Buriko, and half of its managerial board resigned to make sure the firm avoids U.S. sanctions against its founder, billionaire oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. The mass resignations were part of “the efforts that have been made by the management of the group to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders” since the sanctions were imposed last month, Rusal said in a May 24 statement.

Buriko resigned after the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new punitive measures against Russia in early April in response to Russia’s “malign” activities around the world. The latest round of sanctions primarily targeted Russian oligarchs close to President Vladimir Putin, especially Oleg Deripaska – who had previously been interviewed by Robert Mueller – prompting Rusal shares to tumble while the price of aluminum soared.

That said, Rusal is not out of the woods yet, and earlier today Bloomberg reported that Deripaska had asked the Russian government to buy aluminum for state reserves, in other words engage in an indirect bailout of the state’s largest aluminum producer, although the Kremlin hasn’t made a decision yet. Furthermore, Rusal which is facing significant debt maturities in the coming months, has applied for state support to Promsvyazbank, and a decision is pending.

The common theme here is that Trump’s sanctions against Russia – with which he is supposedly colluding – not only work, but are very effective in achieving their goal. And they do so though the biggest weapon the US has: access to the world’s reserve currency, because with one phone call to SWIFT, Trump can lock out an entire nation.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Search Through Hillary’s Private Server Emails Yourself, All 30,000!
May 25, 2018

(INTELLIHUB) — Behold, all 30,000 of Hillary Clinton’s emails have been made available to the general public for their viewing pleasure.

From Wikileaks:

    On March 16, 2016 WikiLeaks launched a searchable archive for over 30 thousand emails & email attachments sent to and from Hillary Clinton’s private email server while she was Secretary of State. The 50,547 pages of documents span from 30 June 2010 to 12 August 2014. 7,570 of the documents were sent by Hillary Clinton. The emails were made available in the form of thousands of PDFs by the US State Department as a result of a Freedom of Information Act request. More PDFs were made available on February 29, 2016, and a set of additional 995 emails was imported up to February 2, 2018.

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Tom Fitton: Obama Knew about FBI Informant
May 25, 2018

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

You can only kick a dog so much before it finally bites back.

 

 

 

 

 

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Japan, Russia, Turkey Bring Potential U.S. Tariff Retaliation To $3.5 Billion
May 22, 2018

By Tom Miles

GENEVA (Reuters) – Japan, Russia and Turkey have warned the United States about potential retaliation for its tariffs on steel and aluminum, the World Trade Organization said on Tuesday, bringing the total U.S. tariff bill to around $3.5 billion annually.

The three countries detailed their compensation claims in notifications to the world trade body, following similar moves by the European Union, India and China. Each showed how much the disputed U.S. tariffs would add to the cost of steel and aluminum exports to the United States, based on 2017 trade.

Russia said the U.S. tariffs, which President Donald Trump imposed in March, would add duties of $538 million to its annual steel and aluminum exports. Japan put the sum at $440 million. Turkey added a further $267 million.

China, the 28-nation EU and India have put their claims at $612 million, $1.6 billion and $165 million respectively.

They all reject the U.S. view that the import tariffs — 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum — are justified by U.S. national security concerns and are therefore exempt from the WTO rules.

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Jim/Bill,

Yes, a little inflation can help us.

More can help us more.

A lot of inflation can remedy all our debt indiscretions.

You can’t have just a little inflation.

It will eventually grow and swallow you whole.

Just as you can’t be just “a little dead”.

“Inflation, according to the Fed’s preferred indicator, reached 2 percent in March. Data released two days after the meeting showed unemployment dipped in April to 3.9 percent, the lowest since 2000, while year-over-year gains in average hourly earnings were steady at 2.6 percent.”

Of course, we all know that inflation is running 10x higher as John Williams’ Shadow Stats continually reminds us.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The look on Paul Volker’s face says it all.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Fed Sees Next Hike Soon, Signals Modest Inflation Overshoot OK
May 23, 2018

Federal Reserve officials said the economic outlook warranted another interest-rate hike “soon” and signaled they would welcome a modest overshoot of their 2 percent inflation target, indicating they’re in no rush to tighten more aggressively.

“Most participants judged that if incoming information broadly confirmed their current economic outlook, it would likely soon be appropriate for the committee to take another step in removing policy accommodation,” minutes released Wednesday of the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 1-2 meeting said.

More from Bloomberg.com: Coffee Waste Is Now Fetching a 480% Premium Over Coffee Itself

A temporary period of inflation “modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the committee’s symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations,” according to the minutes.

While the report all but confirms the central bank is on track to raise interest rates at their next meeting in June, Fed officials were reluctant to declare victory on achieving their inflation goal on a sustainable basis. At the same time, they flagged potential changes to the statement at future meetings to indicate rates were no longer as stimulative, and discussed adjustments in the rate of interest on excess bank reserves to relieve some pressures in the money markets.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Hiking “Soon” But Willing To Allow Dovish Inflation Overshoot
May 23, 2018

The big question after the May FOMC statement was “how symmetric is The Fed’s reaction function” to inflationary upside, i.e. how much will the Fed allow inflation to overshoot, and how much attention are they really paying to the collapsing yield curve? And as Bloomberg noted, a key focal point of the minutes will be to further distinguish the main thresholds separating the three- and four-hike camps in the 2018 dot plot.

Former fund manager Richard Breslow wrote in his Trader’s Notes column earlier:

    “I expect there is a decent chance that the FOMC minutes we’re going to see this afternoon read on the hawkish side. What a difference a few weeks make. Way back then Fed-speak was clearly trending to the upbeat side and they were getting even more hopeful on the inflation side of the dual-mandate.”

But it appears The Fed walked the tightrope on “symmetry” by showing a hawkish tilt:

    *MOST FED OFFICIALS SAW NEXT RATE HIKE LIKELY APPROPRIATE `SOON’ – So June is a lock!

    *SOME OFFICIALS SAW FORWARD-GUIDANCE REVISION APPROPRIATE SOON

Mixed with a whole lot of dovishness.

    *FED MINUTES NOTE MODEST INFLATION OVERSHOOT `COULD BE HELPFUL’

In other words, yet more of the schizophrenic Fed we know so well, which will “hike soon”, but is willing to let inflation overshoot “modestly.”

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Correct Wolfgang, this is very significant!

Bill

Jim/Bill,

All Aboard!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

LME Plans To Launch Yuan-Denominated Metals Futures Markets
May 24, 2018

In a sign the currency’s status in international finance is on the rise, and just a few short weeks after China unveiled its Yuan-denominated oil futures contract, the CEO of the London Metal Exchange has confirmed that it is planning to introduce yuan-denominated metal products.

As we noted recently, interest in China’s yuan-denominated oil futures contract has soared since inception…the share of yuan contracts in global trading jumped to 12% compared to eight percent in March and 14% of WTI volume, up from 2% in April.

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Which was real hard to prove till this last election, now everyone with a working brain sees them as what they truly are.

JB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keepin’ the dream alive.

JB

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just clownin’ around.

JB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim/Bill,

What are cryptocurrencies trying to emulate?

Currencies or gold or, God forbid……Beanie Babies?

My guess would be Beanie Babies.

The article below states that cryptos are only good for speculation and money laundering.

Just like fiat currencies worldwide.  No backing except with promises, speculative, and readily transferable.

However, with fiat, you can at least get interest if you place them in a bank account.

Which brings us to gold.

Like gold, cryptos do not pay interest.

Yet gold, at least, has some inherent value as a component in today’s products (in electronics, dentistry, medicine, etc.).  And true to form, it has a 2,000 year history as a storehouse of value, beauty, and protection against inflation and malfeasance (they just don’t make the stuff anymore).

Cryptos have nothing.

No backing.  No inherent usefulness in production.  No historical precedence.  No way to value them. Can’t even hold them.

And for that matter, although they say the amounts are limited, we don’t know that for sure.

What we do know, is that an endless number of crypto currencies can, and are, being created.

Like Beanie Babies, they are only worth what one is willing to pay for them.

Once demand is gone, they are without value.

 

 

 

 

 

Even equities don’t fall into this category.  If they fall out of favor or below a certain price, then the inherent value of the company’s assets, beyond and above their liabilities, would trigger a buyout or liquidation.

Now they are establishing an ETF to draw in the institutional players for the purpose of pure gambling.

Not investing, mind you.  There is nothing to invest in!

There is no way, in my mind (small as it may be), that anybody can determine some semblance of relative value regarding cryptos.

Caveat Emptor!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

‘Big Short’ Steve Eisman Says Cryptocurrencies Are Mainly Good For ‘Speculation’ And ‘Money Laundering’
May 17, 2018

Steve Eisman, the investor whose forecast of the financial crisis was depicted in “The Big Short,” told CNBC on Thursday he has doubts about “the social utility of cryptocurrency.”

The Neuberger Berman portfolio manager also confirmed his fund is short Deutsche Bank.

“Deutsche Bank has a very simple problem. It doesn’t make money. That’s a pretty shocking statement at this point 10 years after the crisis,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “It’s a bit late in the game to try to solve the problem. … I think Deutsche has to shrink. I think Deutsche five years from now will be a significantly smaller company.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, he said current government-backed currency markets already serve the public efficiently.

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Jim/Bill,

Unless you’re brain dead, you’ve got to wonder.

Deutsche Bank has been in the news the past few days with announcements of eliminating a tenth of its workforce…namely 10,000 employees and their inability to generate profits.

We are all familiar with the massive derivative exposure of Deutsche Bank.

Naysayers will state that much of the exposure is netted out.  However, that may just be the problem!

“Deutsche Bank is unlikely to face losses equal to its notional derivatives exposure, since its contracts are netted out with different counterparties. However, the last financial crisis showed that counterparty risks can snowball and create a chain effect. In 2008, failures at Lehman Brothers and American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) led to a run on banks and imperiled the financial system. Similarly, a failure at Deutsche Bank could have catastrophic consequences for the banking system in 2016.”

We must watch Deutsche VERY carefully, like a hawk; like Lehman; for any clues to the stability of the global financial system.

I expect, should they panic, we could see a domino effect, as we did in 2008.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Does Deutsche Bank Have Similarities to Lehman? (DB)
June 29, 2016

The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 threatened the world’s financial system and created one of the greatest financial crises in modern history. The fallout from the bankruptcy threatened to bring down the world’s financial system and led to the Great Recession. Taxpayer-funded bailouts of banks and massive monetary stimulus combined to rescue the banking system and prop up the economy. On June 29, 2016, International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest risk to the global financial system.

As of June 2016, no other major global financial institutions of Lehman Brothers’ stature have declared bankruptcy. Many observers credit regulatory reforms such as the Volcker Rule, higher capital requirements and stress tests for stabilizing financial institutions in the United States, while similar rules stabilized European banks. However, the balance sheet of Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB

DB

Deutsche Bank AG

12.25

-4.89%

) shows excessive risk-taking by the bank.

Excessive Leverage

Perhaps the biggest problem Deutsche Bank faces is excessive leverage on its balance sheet. According to Berenberg Bank’s James Chappell, Deutsche Bank faces insurmountable challenges from poor-performing core businesses and a lack of capital. On May 16, 2016, Chappell cut his rating on the bank from hold to sell and lowered his price target on the shares, citing the vicious cycle the company faces to shore up its balance sheet and shed unprofitable businesses as rationale. He noted that the company has cut its dividend and pledged to cut employees and sell unprofitable businesses. However, he believes the company ultimately must raise more equity capital to solve its leverage problems. Deutsche Bank’s valuation highlights the market’s pessimism. As of June 15, 2016, the bank traded at 27% of tangible book value, which means the company is worth less than its liquidation value.

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I love Judicial Watch!

JB

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Courtesy of JB,

Jim

7 Reasons Why European Banks Are in Trouble
May 17, 2018

While the euro crisis seems far away as all Eurozone countries ran government deficits below 3 percent of GDP, there is one problem for the euro that quietly keeps growing: the unresolved banking crisis. And this is not a small problem. The Eurosystems´and euro banks´ balance sheets totaled €30 trillion in January 2018, that is about 291 percent of GDP.

European banks are in trouble for several reasons.

First, banking regulation has become tighter after the financial crisis. As a consequence regulatory and compliance costs have rise substantially. Today banks have to fulfill demands by national authorities, the European Banking Authority, the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the European Securities and Markets Authority and the national central banks. Being at a staggering 4% of total revenue currently, compliance costs are expected to rise to 10% of total revenue until 2022.

Second, there are risks hidden in banks´ balance sheets. That there is something fishy in European banks´assets can quickly be detected when comparing banks market capitalization with their book value. Most European banks have price-to-book ratios below 1. German Commerzbank´s price-to-book ratio stands at 0.49, Deutsche Bank´s is at 0.36, Italian UniCredit´s at 0.23, Greek Piraeus Bank at 0.14, and Greek Alpha Bank at 0.34.

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Courtesy of JB.

Jim

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Courtesy of JB.

Jim

Bombshell Reveal: A Grand Jury Already Is Hearing Evidence On DOJ And FBI Scandals
March 23, 2018

We are on the verge of a huge political explosion.  While there have been calls for a special counsel to investigate the DOJ and FBI scandals, and many conservatives have been outraged at the seeming passivity of “Gentleman Jeff” Sessions (aka Sessionzzz in some quarters), it now is clear (as I have already figured) that a grand jury far outside the Beltway already is hearing evidence dug up by DOJ inspector general Michael Horowitz, whose report is now believed to be coming in April.  Following release of that report, expect heads to explode all over the media, all over the Deep State, and among NeverTrumps. 

The first hint that the wheels of justice already are turning came on March 7, when A.G. Sessions revealed to Shannon Bream:

    I have appointed a person outside of Washington, many years in the Department of Justice to look at all the allegations that the House Judiciary Committee members sent to us; and we’re conducting that investigation.

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Law enforcement means regulatory acceptance…

JB

Bitcoin Slumps Below $7,500 as Drop From Recent Peak Tops 20%
May 23, 2018

Bitcoin fell to a six-week low, as selloff that began in early May dropped the cryptocurrency’s price below $7,500 for the first time since mid-April.

Bitcoin slumped 7.3 percent to $7,495 as of 1:57 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. It’s now down more than 20 percent since a May 4 peak.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jim/Bill,

Ignore at your peril:

The country faces a populist rising, a huge debt burden, a weak banking system, and a generally weak economy.

1929 crash started in a much smaller country!                     87 years ago…    must be the cycle of 90…

“There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 90-year cycle are the best known of them.”

CIGA H