Posts Categorized: Jim’s Mailbox

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

"Colin Powell has made bizarre comments that echo the recent declaration by Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden that there will be an “international crisis” early into Barack Obama’s presidency that will test the new president by forcing him to make unpopular decisions.

Speaking on meet the press two days ago, Powell officially endorsed Obama and also made the following statement:

“The problems will always be there and there’s going to be a crisis which will come along on the 21st, 22nd of January that we don’t even know about right now.”"

More… 

I have heard the stories about riot troops being brought into the U.S. , not for release but for active duty here.

I suppose they could’ve been speaking hypothetically, especially with regard to the specific dates given. But thinking further about it, we may conclude that whatever unpopular actions Obama has to take, it would be more politically "correct" to do them quickly, especially because if it is early enough he would be able to justify these drastic actions by trying to correct the catastrophic financial and economical situation the Bush administration has created.

Regards,
Christopher

Jim,

I guess prosecution is out of the question. Perhaps a citizens should attend to the needful. If this, along with everything else, is not guilt beyond reasonable doubt, I don’t know what is.

CIGA Pedro

A Quiet Windfall for US Banks
Monday 10 November 2008
by: Amit R. Paley, The Washington Post

"With attention on bailout debate, Treasury made change to tax policy.

The financial world was fixated on Capitol Hill as Congress battled over the Bush administration’s request for a $700 billion bailout of the banking industry. In the midst of this late-September drama, the Treasury Department issued a five-sentence notice that attracted almost no public attention.

But corporate tax lawyers quickly realized the enormous implications of the document: Administration officials had just given American banks a windfall of as much as $140 billion…

"Did the Treasury Department have the authority to do this? I think almost every tax expert would agree that the answer is no," said George K. Yin, the former chief of staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, the nonpartisan congressional authority on taxes. "

More…

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

The Queen of England does not look happy. Are we entering the perp walk phase of the derivative meltdown?

Ciga Ken

Queen baffled at delay in spotting credit crunch
November 6, 2008 – 8:41AM

Queenie

Queen Elizabeth has been given an academic briefing on the origins of the credit crunch and wound up the "lesson" by asking why nobody had seen the crisis coming.

The 82-year-old monarch had the complexities of the current global financial crisis explained to her during the inauguration of a new building at the renowned London School of Economics (LSE).

The origins and effects of the crisis were explained to her by Professor Luis Garicano, director of research at the LSE’s management department, the Press Association reported.

Prof Garicano said afterwards: "The Queen asked me: ‘If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them? Why did nobody notice it’?"

When Garicano explained that at "every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing", she commented: "Awful."

More…

Dear Ken,

The reason it will probably not happen is because you would have to arrest every international investment bank in the entire world, all their clients and half of both of their staff. After that the Federal Reserve would arrest past Chairmen followed by the Fed arresting itself.

The way the perp walk might happen is if someone really angry who has no clue how pervasive the OTC derivative scam is, like the Queen, demanded a criminal investigation by non-financial incorruptible criminal judges.

Who knows, it could happen.

Regards,
Jim

Dear Mr. Sinclair,

I decided to visit Bloomberg.com this morning to review the market news. Here is what I found. This appears very ugly for the US dollar and wildly bullish for gold.

CIGA Marc

AIG Bailout Swells to $150 Billion as Insurer Reports Fourth Straight Loss
U.S. Stock Futures Rise on China Stimulus Plan, G-20 Call for Lower Rates
Fannie Mae Posts Record $29 Billion Quarterly Loss After Asset Writedowns
Gendell, Scholes Are Losers as Hedge Funds Slide for Fifth Straight Month
Believing in Estimates Means S&P 500 Rallies Record 20% Before 2008 Closes
Circuit City Files for Bankruptcy Amid Competition From Best Buy, Wal-Mart
Deutsche Post Will Eliminate 9,500 More Jobs in U.S., Scale Back DHL Unit
Fed Refuses to Identify Recipients of $2 Trillion Emergency Loans to Banks
Russia Probes Nuclear Submarine Accident in Pacific That Killed 20 People

Dear Marc,

Yes, this and much more is coming at the technical money flow that has created this bear market dollar rally.

Regards,
Jim

Posted by & filed under Guild Investment, Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

One need only read the following article to see the absurdity of the proposition that the US dollar can stay strong. The interest on this $2.1 Trillion [so far] or excess debt alone will eventually swamp the budget. It is absurd and highly correlated with US money coming back to the US from overseas investing and foreign money coming to the US for a safe haven during a crisis. These are short term events, the dollar’s day in the sun is drawing to a close and soon it will reverse. By the way, after 9/11 the dollar rallied for 4 months and then fell for 7 years. Thus far the dollar rally is about 3 1/2 months old.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

RPT-PREVIEW-US Treasury to expand debt arsenal as deficit rises
Tuesday, November 04, 2008 5:00:06 AM (GMT-08:00)
By David Lawder

WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) – Facing the need to borrow up to a staggering $2.1 trillion in the current fiscal year to fund economic rescue programs, the U.S. Treasury is expected to significantly expand its debt securities arsenal.

Analysts anticipate that the Treasury on Wednesday will announce the return of the 3-year note and adopt more frequent offerings of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. It may also consider more reopenings of shorter maturities.

“They are going to pull out all the stops. There’s a good chance they’ll come back to a quarterly 3-year note, monthly 5-year (note) auctions and increase issuance pretty subtantially across the board,” said Kim Rupert, head of global fixed-income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.

The Treasury Department said on Monday it would need to borrow a record $550 billion in the October-December quarter, including a likely $300 billion in financing for Federal Reserve liquidity operations.

The total was $408 billion higher than previous estimates announced in July 2008 due to outlays for economic assistance programs, lower tax receipts and lower issuance of non-marketable debt securities to state and local governments.

More…

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

Last Thursday afternoon I dropped into the local Suzuki automobile dealer in order to have a look at the new SX4 AWD mini crossover. The sales manager and I got chatting about the economy and as it turns out, he was quite knowledgeable on the subjects that we all read regularly on JSMineset.com. This gent was involved in real estate investing on the side; specifically going to bank auctions, the ones where the bank is doing an absolute auction of properties they have already taken under a prior foreclosure.

He told me that one should not listen to any of the ‘reports’ of housing price declines, because they do not honestly reflect what is going on out there for the educated buyers. He told me that he was at an auction last week of several fairly new 3 bedroom homes on 4 acres across the street from a local lake here in New Hampshire with water rights and they were selling for $35K each at auction. I asked him how much these houses had originally sold for and he said $300K a few years ago!! I asked how many he picked up… he said none! I asked why at 11 cents on the dollar did he not buy anything? He told me that he is watching the stress in the markets closely and he feels they still have much further to go on the downside. His high bid was $25K and that’s all he is willing to pay.

He then told me of a very nicely renovated old farmhouse with attached large barn on an in town city lot of about ½ acre up near the lakes region in NH that was quite valuable that sold for $65K at bank auction a week or so ago. He said the inventories are full of this stuff and it’s going to get much worse. WOW! And none of this is being broadcast anywhere! He explained that he is on a series of auction listing sites which supply him the [real] data and offerings. It’s getting very ugly out there if this is all true information.

CIGA Bruce

CIGA Bruce,

Who said things were much worse internationally than in the good ole USA?

Regards,
Jim

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

It is quite apparent that physical gold coins are very difficult to get anywhere in the US and in many parts of the world. I have called a few local shops to test for availability and there is none. The best alternative I got was a large premium over spot on a bullion gold ounce, to be paid to the dealer up front and then a long wait time for delivery. The days of walking into a shop and purchasing a coin or two are gone, and we don’t know if or when those days will return.

Internet coin dealers are in the same boat, not much available and high premiums and wait times for all types of bullion and numismatics. It seems that the logical extension of this phenomena is spreading to the Comex in the US. Ultimately there will be a showdown for gold in lieu of the intense worldwide demand for physical. Nothing can take the place of the real thing. Gold ETFs by extension may have difficulty in getting physical gold to back their deposits, they may limit new investors or change their rules to hold less gold per outstanding share. Gold ETFs may experience a period of intense scrutiny about what they truly own, which may cause investors to shy away from them as gold investment vehicles.

When push comes to shove and gold finally makes its move up and through the old highs from this year, it will be understood by everyone that gold is in a real bull market. It will be easily understood by the man in the street as he will see the financial upheaval and wealth destruction talked about here on JSMineset. The dollar’s buying power will plummet and the small investor will realize that gold is what he will need. Inflation will be unable to hide any longer.

And if the coin shops are empty and there is no real way to get gold in hand, there will be only one quality substitute, Gold Stocks and Gold Mutual Funds, and possibly not Gold ETFs. Senior, Mid-Tier, and Junior gold stocks will skyrocket as there will be no real physical way for the average investor to participate in the Gold Bull Market that is coming. The watertight doors are closing: gold coins, small gold bars– these door are now shut, (large bars next?), (ETF’s next?).

Quality gold stocks are selling at 2003 gold prices, some at 2001 giveaway prices. Even though the ship is listing, there are still lifeboats available on this ship! Soon these boats will be lowered away as the last vehicles of gold financial survival, and even then one must take the precautions set out here on JSMineset to distance yourself from financial entities that are between oneself and one’s assets.

In my opinion, time seems short and the band on deck is playing a happy tune. 

Ciga Ken

Dear Ken,

You are 100 percent correct.

Regards,
Jim

Posted by & filed under Guild Investment, Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

Perhaps Taiwan read “GEAB N28 Global systemic crisis Alert – Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt.

Regards,
CIGA Bernie

Taiwan Dumps Fannie, Freddie. And Uncle Sam?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH

Despite bailout, GSE debt is eschewed by major foreign investor, and ally.

WHO LOST TAIWAN? After Mao drove the Nationalists off the Mainland in 1949, the cry went up among U.S. conservatives, “Who lost China?”

Now Washington might well worry about who lost Taiwan as a major investor in U.S. agency securities as the Republic of China has openly questioned their credit quality — even after the federal government has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Beyond that, Washington might well worry that other nations also no longer view its agencies — and now, by extension, the very credit of the United States of America — beyond question.

Taiwan’s financial regulators reportedly have ordered that nation’s insurance companies to pare their holdings of the debt and mortgage-backed securities of Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Ginnie Mae securities, according to a report on the Internet site of Asian Investor magazine.

Such an order would be a stunning rebuke to Washington, coming a little more than a month after the federal government effectively nationalized the mortgage giants. Fannie and Freddie last month were placed into conservatorships with the Treasury standing ready to inject up to $100 billion through purchases of preferred shares in the government sponsored enterprises.

More…

Dear Jim,

I couldn’t help noticing the parallels in language between the following two items:

“Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget Deficit.”
–Jim’s Formula, September 1, 2006, Point 6.

“The financial rescue operation will force the federal government to borrow an unprecedented amount of money as the budget deficit climbs to record heights, a top Treasury Department official said Tuesday.” … “[Anthony Ryan, Treasury’s acting undersecretary for domestic finance] said the rising borrowing was occurring against the backdrop of a slowing economy.”
–Associated Press, M. Crutsinger, “Treasury Predicts Huge Government Borrowing Needs,” October 28, 2008.

Thanks for the heads up!
CIGA Richard B.

Dear Richard,

In one sense, an event like this is a compliment.

Can you imagine when the FRGCR appears out of some major meeting of the sages on international finance?

Regards,
Jim

Dear Jim,

“World Will Struggle to Meet Oil Demand” is a front page headline in the Financial Times today.

The gist of the article is that the first authoritative public study on the biggest oil fields has been completed. It shows that production is falling much faster than had been thought. The International Energy Agency authored a report entitled “World Energy Output” which states that “the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1%”. All I can say is WOW! This is much faster than anyone had thought. This means a lower long term supply of oil, and resulting higher long term prices for oil, coal and other energy sources.

Also today, soft commodities began a much overdue rally. We think food commodities and gold can continue to trend higher. Ending food stocks after the current harvest are at 34 year lows. The potential for food shortages and starvation in parts of the world remains high.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Dear Monty,

Add to this that not if but when Pakistan blows oil will rise $100 in 60 days from whatever price it is at that time.

Regards,
Jim

Dear Jim,

This Bloomberg article explains why we have been harping on free trade for such a long time. Free trade is essential. Look at Iceland, when confidence in their banks evaporated, there was a currency collapse and inflation. Free trade became an impossibility due to a lack of trust in the currency. By the way, the Icelanders who owned gold, did great compared to everyone else, and they can now buy real estate companies and other assets cheaply in Iceland.

Best regards,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Credit `Tsunami’ Swamps Trade as Banks Curtail Loans (Update2)
2008-10-29 10:49:09.610 GMT
By Michael Janofsky, Mark Drajem and Alaric Nightingale

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — Richard Burnett’s lumber company had started loading wood onto ships heading for China. More was en route to the docks. It was all part of an order that would fill 100 40-foot cargo containers.

Then Burnett got a call from his buyer at Shanghai VIVA Wood Products Co. The deal was dead. He told Burnett, president of Cross Creek Sales LLC in Augusta, Georgia, he couldn’t get a letter of credit to guarantee payment for at least six months.

“It was like a spigot got cut off,” Burnett said, recounting the transaction that fell apart in July. The inability of buyers in China and Vietnam to get letters of credit has cost his company as much as $4 million this year, a third of projected revenue, forcing him to lay off 15 of 35 employees, he said.

Suppliers of oil, coal, grains and consumer products from Chicago to Mumbai are losing sales as the credit crisis spreads beyond financial institutions, and banks refuse financing or increase the fees for buyers. Coupled with declining demand, the credit squeeze is threatening international trade, one of the lone bright spots in the global economy.

More…

Posted by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following is a little monetary history from CIGA Rusty Bayonet:

“The painful experience of runaway inflation and the collapse of the Continental dollar prompted the delegates of the Constitutional Convention to include the gold and silver clause in the United States Constitution so that the individual states could not issue bills of credit.”

A few things to think about today:

  1. Where will the next Administration find themselves a Paulson? Regardless of your feelings concerning his actions you must give him credit for his brilliance. His mission is to hold things somewhat together until at least November 2nd and to a maximum of 89 days following that. His performance has been nothing short of a miracle in finagling.
  2. Paulson and Bernanke are not stupid men. Why did they let Lehman go bust when they knew full well of the consequences?
  3. Gold is not part of the problem. It is part of the solution.
  4. You do know that the rally in the US dollar is a product of the mechanics of unwinding massive spreads causing short covering. That makes it a game of musical chairs. When it ends no one knows, but when it ends everyone will hear the blast.
  5. If some major players gave notice to the Comex for delivery of 2000 contracts per month, in ten months the exchange would have to novate (unilaterally declare a contract null and void in all or in part) the gold contract and go to cash trading only. This would unseat the gold banks as the paper tigers of the bullion market pricing, giving the seat to the international cash market. That would only be a repeat in gold of the novation of the silver contract at the Comex in 1980 by “sellers only,” and margin at 100% in silver during the Hunt Crisis. What happened before, just like “The painful experience of the runaway inflation and collapse of the Continental dollar prompted the delegates to the Constitutional Convention to include the gold and silver clause into the United States Constitution.” would this time be the modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio.

Dear Jim,

Clearly, “Bretton Woods II” is all about “The revitalized and modernized Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio”. As you said before: The revitalized and modernized Federal Reserve gold certificate ratio will be tied to a reintroduction of M3. It will not be tied as in the pre-Bretton Woods Agreement. The Treasury Department will have nothing whatsoever to do as the open market will do it for the department.

Jim, can you tell us anything more? Have you been contacted by world leaders? What are the chances that this will happen?  Do you still believe that it will be at a level of $1650 USD with 1 EUR = 2 USD?

Ciga Stefaan,
Belgium

  • On September 26, 2008, French, and current European Union president, Nicolas Sarkozy, said, “we must rethink the financial system from scratch, as at Bretton Woods.”
  • On October 8, 2008, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said “the financial world crisis will need a strong regulation in the matter of financial markets and capital movements throughout the world. A new Bretton Woods will be needed”.
  • On October 13, 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said world leaders must meet to agree to a new economic system. “We must have a new Bretton Woods, building a new international financial architecture for the years ahead.” However, Brown’s approach is quite different than the original Bretton Woods System, emphasizing the continuation of globalization and free trade as opposed to a return to fixed exchange rates.
  • Italian Economics Minister Giulio Tremonti has said that Italy will use its 2009 G7 chairmanship to push for a “New Bretton Woods.” He has been critical of the U.S.’s response to the September-October 2008 economic crisis, and has suggested that the dollar may be superseded as the base currency of the Bretton Woods system.
  • On 20 October 2008, Tremonti told the Italian daily Corriere della Sera that proposals for a new Bretton Woods had been spread for many years by Lyndon LaRouche.

Dear Stephan,

You make too much of the spin title of “Bretton Woods the Second.”

The present US Administration is a lame duck so that should give you a clue. The problem is a meltdown of OTC derivatives combined with the world’s love of phony assets and earnings that OTC derivatives provided.

The general feeling is that the EU would like to see the US Fed take an official position as the lender of last resort to the EU. It is already so what is the big deal?

The FRGCR, modernized and revitalized, is in the future and not now.

Regards,
Jim

Dan,

Thanks for all your hard work in these very interesting times. I hope all of you at JSMineset know there are many of us out here who are grateful that your forum exists. As gold is the uber currency, I thought you might be interested in this offering.

Best,
CIGA Butch

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
The crisis in Hungary recalls the heady days of the UK’s expulsion from the ERM.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:52AM GMT 26 Oct 2008

The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.

Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

More…

Thanks Dan and Butch,

The numbers say that the developing world debt (4 trillion) is peanuts compared to the OTC (quadrillion plus) mess in the West.

The bottom line is that all paper money is going in the crapper, causing increased velocity of money a la Weimar through the unleashing of inflation of a lifetime during stinking business conditions.

Selecting a currency based on which is deeper in the hole is madness, but then so is the world of finance.

The problem of selection suggests gold will reach a  price a lot higher than my call.

Regards,
Jim