Posts Categorized: Jim’s Mailbox

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From Dave Janda MD.

Bill

Michigan’s Governor Is Practicing Medicine Without A License

This is beyond an overreach. The action by this Politician.…Whitmer….is putting the citizens of Michigan in harms way….it is disgusting and DANGEROUS !

I have reviewed a number of studies….the first of which from 2005….yes 2005…revealed chloroquine was found to have suppressed the SARS Virus….a kissing cousin ( no social distancing with that virus) to the current Corona Virus.

In addition, a series of studies and case reports from China, Italy, Poland and France have shown Hydroxychloroquine to be effective against the current Corona Virus. Specifically, a study from Marseilles, France revealed a combination of Hdroxychloroquine plus Zithromycin ( Zpack) within 6 days debilitated the Corona Virus. This was a small population studied but the experience of those in the field in a number of countries including the United States have confirmed those results. In fact, the FDA has fast tracked a study on this combination of medications. That is a very rare action taken by the FDA and speaks to the positive data they have accumulated on the treatment.

Enter ” FAKE Doc” Whitmer…… she has threatened REAL Docs and Pharmacists in Michigan with punitive actions if they use this potential life saving combination for a patient…. I kid you not. This is beyond unconscionable ! By her ignorant and Despicable totalitarian actions she has put thousands of Michigan citizens and health care providers in harm’s way. This is an egregious example of politics at it’s worst!

She ran on “Fixing the damn roads”….. she needs to stick with the “damn roads” and QUIT practicing medicine without a license! Thousands of people have been put in Harm’s way and providers who are already over worked and stressed to the max do not need a political HACK DICTATING punitive actions against them as they battle for people’s lives.

Dave Janda M.D.

Opinion: Michigan’s doctors fight coronavirus, and governor’s office

March 26, 2020

The coronavirus is unquestionably a significant threat to the health and safety of people throughout the world. The infection’s worldwide death toll is more than 23,000 and counting, 1,163 in the United States and 60 here in Michigan.

There is a silver lining however, in the numbers of people who are recovering from COVID-19 — more than 122,000 at this writing.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer speaks during a press conference Thursday in Lansing.

Even greater hope lies in a promising new treatment using a combination of old drugs: Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) and a Z-Pak (azithromycin).

These well-known drugs have very favorable safety profiles. Several small studies have shown significant reduction in viral loads and symptom improvement when combining these medications in COVID-19 patients. Though these studies are small and do not prove efficacy, the results were so promising that the authors of the most famous study concluded:

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Good evening Bill,

Did you see this?

CIGA Tony

https://goldswitzerland.com/swiss-gold-refiners-cease-production-end-of-paper-market/

Tony,

I believe he is WAY too extreme when he says ” Stocks will be down 99% and most bonds down by 100%”. Yes I agree bonds will be down 90+++% but stocks may actually be up because of hyperinflation. Only time will tell but the only thing a one way street in hyperinflation is real money, gold and silver…mining shares even more so.

Best,

Bill

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I asked Tony earlier today if he was going to stand by his mailbox waiting for a check?

Bill

Oh, the answer to your question as to what the $1000 Easter egg will buy is (drum roll please)……….nothing!
There’s no place open to spend it and the few that are open are out of goods!!!
What a shit show!

CIGA Tony

Jim/Bill,

Never trust what government stats tell you.

However, pay close attention to the long end of the bond market.

It speaks volumes.

Jeff Gundlach predicted during his DoubleLine call yesterday that the U.S. national debt likely to grow to $30 trillion in two or three years as spending explodes in response to the crisis, which means about $3-4 trillion in net issuance per year, and that upcoming supply tsunami is certainly sending bond prices lower, potentially dealing a deathly blow to the risk-parity/balanced “60/40” portfolio model.

Perhaps, over the last 2 days, it (bond market) is sensing impending inflation of a magnitude greater than we can imagine.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

We told you about this on our recent subscriber call. It is game over once rates rise against the Fed’s wishes.

Bill

There Is Something About This Crazy Treasury Move That Nobody Can Explain
March 18, 2020

On one hand, the recent surge in 10Y yields is precisely what one – and certainly we – would expect: after all, the official arrival of helicopter money in the form of $1,000 checks to most Americans means that people’s expectations for government generosity repriced overnight, and now the political debate shifts to how much more free cash Americans should expect and for how long (with Bernie Sanders firing the first shot with a proposal to hand out $2,000 instead of $1,000). On this point, Jeff Gundlach predicted during his DoubleLine call yesterday that “the U.S. national debt likely to grow to $30 trillion in two or three years as spending explodes in response to the crisis”, which means about $3-4 trillion in net issuance per year, and that upcoming supply tsunami is certainly sending bond prices lower, potentially dealing a deathly blow to the risk-parity/balanced “60/40” portfolio model.

Yet on the other hand, Treasury inflation breakevens have plunged to record lows as if the market is saying that despite this flood of new money, there will be no actual inflation as much as a decade in the future. To put it mildly, this is bizarre, and as BMO’s Ian Lyngen writes this morning, “there are aspects of the overnight price action which resonate and others that confound. Mnuchin’s dire warning that the unemployment rate could spike to 20% in the absence of government intervention to address the coronacrisis had the foreseeable impact on the equity market; limit down. The shape of the yield curve has also performed in line with prior easing episodes with 2s/10s reaching 72.6 bp overnight and offering solace to those anticipating a cyclical resteepening.”

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Jim/Bill,

What good is a Payroll Tax Holiday, raising your take home pay, if you are no longer employed?

Businesses shutting down everywhere.

Political stunt?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Good point Wolfgang.

Bill

President Trump’s Payroll Tax Holiday: Budgetary, Distributional, and Economic Effects
March 12, 2020

· In response to the economic effects of the coronavirus, President Trump has proposed a payroll tax holiday that would temporarily eliminate all Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes through December 31st, 2020. PWBM projects that this payroll tax holiday would cost $807 billion if the holiday were run from April 1 through December 31, 2020.

· Households in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution—those households with the highest willingness to spend their tax savings—would receive about 2 percent of the total tax cut and only a third of these households would see any tax savings due to low levels of taxable income. Tax savings would also accumulate slowly over time relative to direct government spending.

· PWBM estimates that eliminating payroll taxes would have little net impact on the economy in the short run and would reduce the size of the economy by 0.1 percent in 2030 and 0.2 percent in 2050 due to additional debt.

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Jim/Bill,

Slowly but surely the hints of coming Hyperinflation are coming to press!

The world, in particular the general public, should know.  Shout it from the rooftops.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Believe me Wolfgang we have tried, but people always laughed at us.  THIS is no laughing matter…

Bill

Bernanke and Yellen Tell the Fed to Monetize Everything.
March 18, 2020

Thus far in this crisis, the Fed has:

1)    Cut interest rates from 1.25% to 0.15%.

2)    Launched over $700 billion in Quantitative Easing (QE).

3)    Launched a $1.5 TRILLION repo program.

4)    Launched another $1 trillion repo program.

5)    Announced it will begin buying commercial paper (short-term corporate debt).

6)    Allowed primary dealers to start parking assets, including stocks, as collateral in exchange for short-term credit.

7)    Opened Euro-Dollar swaps (this implies systemically important banks in Europe are in danger of collapse).

Under any set of circumstances, the above set of policies would be considered the NUCLEAR option. The fact that the Fed has launched ALL of these in the span of three weeks is beyond incredible.

In the simplest of terms, the Fed has effectively used up ALL of its ammo in less than a single month. At this point, there truly is not much else the Fed can do.

And the markets continue to implode. As I write this, the futures markets are once again LIMIT down, meaning they had to be frozen after falling 5%.

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JB sent us a picture worth more than 1,000 words!

Bill

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Jim/Bill

This data, from the CDC as of its latest update, would make you wounder why the Corona-virus is getting so much attention?

Let’s put things into perspective, the total Corona-virus cases in the whole world, as of this writing is 108,139 cases with 3,669 deaths.

It would appear that the “regular” flu numbers, 45 million cases, and up to 46,000 deaths are more alarming…

Dave

Flu Update: March 2020 Numbers Are In
March 4, 2020

While the public deals with the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to New York State and major regions of the United States, flu season remains underway with the latest data being reported by the CDC.

So far this season, there have been 45 million flu illnesses, at least 300,000 hospitalizations, and up to 46,000 deaths from flu, of which more than 100 are pediatric–a higher total at this point of the year than any season in the past decade.

In Monroe County, there have been 4,699 confirmed cases and 10 deaths since October 1.

The CDC reports that the percentage of deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia is 6.8%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. But this year’s strain is unusual compared to previous years.

Read how to prevent and treat the flu

Influenza B Appeared Earlier

This year, Influenza B appeared earlier than usual. Traditionally, Influenza A appears earlier than Influenza B, but that was not the case to begin 2020.

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Jim/Bill,

In our talk on Saturday I quoted statistics on Corona virus. This is the source I use the most for up to date information…

Dave

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. Worldometer is owned by Dadax, an independent company. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation.

Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

We have licensed our counters at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), to BBC News, and to the U2 concert, among others.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 3500 published books, in more than 2000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

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Coronavirus Survival Kit

coronavirus survival kit

Jim

Friday Musings…

This week a number forces combined to give pause to economic outlook as it relates to value and opportunity, and desirability.

Over $ 5 trillion was wiped out in stock market declines missing no one’s portfolio, or holdings. And COVID-19 continued its’ global march affecting countries like Iran and Italy with many reported cases causing much angst; while China struggles with its’ impact, effectively offline as the world’s workshop. Causing many companies to issue warnings about supply chain disruptions and profit warnings. What also became clear this week is that global credit expansion is actually declining. While at the same time global output is in decline as evidenced in reports of continued lackluster car sales and declines in everything from oil consumption to meat to soybeans. This is reflected in the lower prices that have declined all week. We have also seen meaningful action taken by the “bug out crowd” who hope to escape the passing storm.

One thinks that this has all makings of a rogue wave. It is well canvassed that the world was short on liquidity last year. The fall in China output will place them in negative growth for a period, not yet known. However, with car sales down some 90% and many businesses running short of capital liquidity the outcome is clear. China will need to bailout not just many of their banks but whole industry segments. The question is with what capital? Printing money to prop industry in a world not consuming is a recipe for failure. Many loans China has made globally will fall short on payment. And the human impact on China is not really known and it will take several more weeks before a truthful picture emerges. And there are many theories out there as to the hastened impact of 5G on the virus spread. The truth will come out on this theory over time. What is clear is 5G from Huawei will be banned in the US shortly.

When you couple this with global angst over the virus, people become worried and tend to tighten their spending behavior and already it is quite clear that typical social norms are changing. Just go to any Chinatown anywhere to find a lack of people. Spending will be redirected, perhaps to paying down debt as optimism declines. Now add to this supply chain disruptions which will manifest in lowered employment, another decline in spending is introduced. People not working or sick do not spend.

This the lack of liquidity combines with lessened demand and credit creation, human angst over the virus, and lower asset values to create a situation whereby confidence is lacking not just in consumers but in bank lending who see their own woes of liquidity to corporations who question their businesses and in some cases their survival through difficult times as declining sales, regardless of why, lower both values and expectations.

This combined rogue wave of a lack of confidence has come together this week to affect everything and everyone. We should expect and will experience more volatility in the coming weeks as the combined impact takes hold. And phrases like “no bid” will become more common as what we will see in days ahead will make 2008 feel like a walk in the park.

Buckle up!

Cheers

Robert

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Dear James,
The Dollar Store Supply Chain Barometer
The average person doesn’t think or care about the supply chain. The supply chain is the process of getting your stuff from where it is made to the place where you can buy it. We don’t have to think about the when, where and how scenarios. We merely go the store, locate what we want on the shelf, pay for our items, and leave with our purchases.
There isn’t a great deal of thought involved in how we acquire what we want and need. Back in the day, items were supplied to most destinations by railroad and there wasn’t enormous international distances between the source of supply and the end consumer. Today, we obtain goods from all over the world. Perishables and high value items are transported by airplanes, and almost everything else travels over sea as revealed by the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the oceanic transport. What happens if the supply chain becomes disrupted? How will the average person know, and what can you do to prepare? Looking at Dollar Stores is a fast and easy barometer for determining changes in the supply chain.
In the past weeks, airlines to and from China have all but shut down. The Baltic Dry Index is at the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. What does this mean for you? It means that there is a real possibility that supplies from China are going to be diminished. The western world has become particularly dependent on Chinese goods, and the threat of the Corona Virus is creating impact on supply chains. This is not directly related to the Corona Virus. It is related to the fear of the spread of the virus. Regardless if the threat of Corona Virus is real or not, the fear is real and the supply chains are feeling the effects. At the very least, available goods coming from the East will be more costly since what is shipped will experience an increased transportation cost, making all goods increase in price. Fewer transports result in higher shipping costs.
If we look at dollar stores, where the cheapest items can be obtained, we may see a picture of the larger economy and the effects on the supply chain. In 2018, it was estimated that 42% of dollar store merchandise is directly from China. Shortages in the supply chain would quickly been seen in the inventory on dollar store shelves. If the inventory of dollar store merchandise begins to disappear from the shelves, the average consumer would know that there are problems with the supply chain. If there are items missing from shelves in the dollar store, it would be a fairly quick reflection of what is occurring in the supply chain. Although a trend would be seen in retail in general, the dollar stores may be the first to reveal such a trend, and could be seen as the “canary in the coal mine” of Chinese merchandise availability. It would be interesting to watch the dollar stores over the next 6-8 weeks. Just some food for thought!
My Dear Sister K