Posts Categorized: Jim’s Mailbox

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Correct Wolfgang.  As for derivatives, I have seen total estimates top $2 Quadrillion …let that sink in!

Jim/Bill,
Thank you for all the charts you post.
They help me gain a greater insight.
 
Everyone is looking at the trees (micro picture), not the forest (macro picture).  And they speculate off that.

For example, derivatives of the macro side ( oil, agriculture, hard commodities, transportation, supply chain issues, interest rates,  employment, Dollar, sentiment, etc. ) are what everyone, including the Fed, is looking at...individually.

Individually, they do have an impact.  But together, the impact of the sum of the parts is significantly greater.  You might even say logarithmicly so.

Stand back, be patient, and get a general feel as to what's happening.  Don't react to each report.

You can plant 3 or 4 flowers, such as impatiens or vincas, and watch them grow a little each day.  Some days they lag in growth and wilt a bit.  But step away for a week or two and you'll come back to an amazing slew of flowers that cover your entire garden!

Reminds me of an older gentlemen, back in the 70's, that only read the weekend papers for his financial news; never daily.
This allowed him to grasp a bigger picture of things and never got spooked.
He became quite wealthy. 

Gold will do what it has to do.  Forget about its daily actions in London or the Comex.  The big picture will not lead you astray.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Unfortunately, kids would do a better job because they would not purposely be destructive.  

Jim/Bill,
I wouldn't expect this from a 10 year old.
We ban Russia from repaying their debt, then say they defaulted!
Whose running this country?  Kids?
We're making ourselves the laughing stock of the world.  Worse yet, a flight away from the Dollar and anything remotely associated with it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-defaults-foreign-debt-first-time-bolshevik-revolution-amid-western-sanctions
CIGA Wolfgang Rech 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

 Wolfgang,  China has done the same thing encouraging their population to purchase gold.  Both countries have also been quietly amassing State gold.  This should give you an idea that they are bringing gold back into their system as they know the West is bankrupting.  Best,  Bill

Jim/Bill,
How ironic that a dictatorial superpower like Russia actually advocates it citizens to own gold, even going so far as to forgo its own purchases so that banks have enough inventory for the public.  Heck, they even removed the VAT tax.
Yet our own country frowns upon its citizens owning gold.  SPEND, and if you don't have it, go into DEBT.  Just feed the mighty industrial complex, at the expense of your financial health and future security.
Mind you, I love my country.  But I don't have to love the people running (or ruining) it.  Just like I don't have to love the mass shooting murderers running amok today.
As always, watch your ass.....and your gold.
CIGA Wolfgang Rech 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Hilarious” would be my description …

Jim’s Mailbox

Jim/Bill,
With all due respect, I call BS.
I guess I missed something when the Hunt brothers tried to buy as much silver as possible in 1979/1980 because gold was forbidden to own, the government stepped in and changed the rules on them, devasting the brothers and the silver price. 
The Hunt's owned 100 million ounces, making the government uneasy.  Yet as of 2020, JP Morgan held 600 million ounces, the world record for a single owner.  Interesting.
It's been written that JPM suppresses the price on the Comex while accumulating the physical on these dips.
I'm not here to pass judgment, as I believe everything eventually reverts to the mean.  It's just a game.
JPM is not wrong, it's a good bet. 
But to say the government (or others) will not, or cannot, conspire to fix the price is naive.
Conspiracy has become capitalism's middle name.
CIGA Wolfgang Rech 

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Wolfgang, could the US even continue standing were dollar reserve currency status be removed?  Best,  Bill

Jim/Bill,
This article has so many truisms that I don't know where to begin; from the physics of supply and demand pertaining to the Dollar, to the value of commodities and gold, trust, and the political system's naivete in their actions.  
If my memory serves me correctly, Russia under Nikita Khrushchev, has stated that while most 3rd world countries were succumbing to Western exploitation of their valuable resources, Russia would bide their time and keep them for themselves.  Let the rest of the world be raped by industrialists. 
As Che Guevara supposedly once said:
"Ingrained economic inequalities,
are the intrinsic result of
Capitalism, Colonialism, and Imperialism
CIGA Wolfgang Rech 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

There are few adults left, Wolfgang!

Jim/Bill,
Exactly who is sanctioning who?
In my eyes, those who have the most to lose are hurt the most.  Obviously that's the West.
The entire world is being drawn into a chaotic downward spiral of economic destitution.
Ever since the Biden administration has come into power we've had increasing tumult in domestic and international markets to the detriment of our own standard of living.  Can we live without petro products, raw materials, manufacturing capabilities, and trading partners?  Of course we can.   The Neanderthals did.  But is that what we want?
Globalization is good thing, providing however, all the members of the family get along; resolve any issues diplomatically and not in a schoolyard brawl manner.
Statesmanship, as opposed to politics, is using brains and tact in lieu of brawn and bullying.  Being adults instead of kids.  That's what is lacking in today's political arena.
We have discarded the concepts of comparative advantage and ignored the boundaries of pareto optimality for some nefarious agenda. Only history will enlighten us to what that is.
CIGA Wolfgang Rech 
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/real-reason-behind-eus-drive-embargo-russian-oil

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Bill/Jim,

As Trump would say: “This is yuge….YUGE!

Easy to sanction other countries, but in a globalized system….not so smart.

Things are never as simple as they appear.  In a world where everyone is dependent on each other, globalization, cracks begin to appear in the system making for dangerous consequences.  Its what’s not seen or expected that can kill you. 

Russia has just responded with the latest salvo aimed at Europe…Dollars not accepted; Got Gold?  Small cracks have appeared,  but this could send the edge of the cliff slipping into the sea. 

Europe falls into the “dark” ages.  And with that, the rest of the world.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Gazprom Halts Gas Shipments To Europe Via Critical Pipeline
April 2, 2022

After European nations imported the most gas from Russian sources yesterday in months, scrambling to stock up on supplies as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deadline to either pay for gas in rubles (or be cut off) came and went, Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a critical artery for European energy supplies.

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Bill,

Who are they kidding? Themselves! All Russia needs to do is audit its true gold reserves. China will follow. Ruble will be strong as hell along with Yuan and gold and all commodities.

Pozsar – “Our commodity your problem”

CIGA Kevin

EU Reveals Aim Of New Russia Sanctions
April 2, 2022

The EU is working on a new package of sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni said on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy.

According to Gentiloni, the new measures will not affect Russia’s energy sector. He noted, however, that they are designed to be difficult to bypass.

“We are working on additional packages of sanctions, but to clarify, they do not include the energy sector at the moment. First of all, we are trying to limit [Russia’s] ability to circumvent these sanctions,” he said, as cited by ANSA news agency.

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