Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Our Currency Watch Continues To Prove The Precious Metals Rally
October 3, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,   

      Day 4 of the week still shows positive price movements for both precious metals (at least in the very early morning) with Gold leading the way at $1,510.70, up $2.80 and close to the high at $1,511.70 with the low at $1,501.70. Silver is flat to higher at $17.70, up 1.7 cents with the high close by at $17.795 with the low down at $17.55. The US Dollar is flat to lower with the value pegged at 98.66, down 2.9 points closer to the low at 98.62 than the high at 98.875. All of this flatness happened before 5am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      Our emerging markets currency watch continues to prove the rally and now shows Gold trading under the Venezuelan Bolivar at 15,088.12 showing a gain of 185.77 Bolivars with Silver at 176.779 Bolivar showing it too gained 3.546 Bolivars since yesterday morning. In Argentina, Gold holders now see its price at 87,358.71 Pesos, adding another 4 digits of value (1,229.73 Pesos) to the left of the decimal with Silver now trading at 1,023.65 Pesos proving it too gained 2.3653 Pesos in the overnight. The Turkish Lira now has Gold priced at 8,600.99 showing it gained 55.33 Liras with Silver at 100.773 showing it gained 1.4339 in T-Lira value.      

      Our October Silver Delivery Demands lost a little ground yesterday but nowhere near earlier with the total count now at 491 Demands for physical and with Zero Volume posted up on the board so far this morning. This demand count proves 54 Obligations where delivered upon either here or in London with no trading range to view so far today. Even though Silver rallied a little yesterday, the shorts didn’t leave nor did any longs as the Overall Open Interest gained 359 more positions giving us 212,658 Overnighters duking it out in the arena of play as the deliveries continue to dry up supply of the real all the while cash is being printed in order to keep the markets moving.   

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Is the dollar up or are all other currencies down?

The Euro Has Kept Falling. Investors Wonder How Low It Can Go.[Subscription Required]
October 3, 2019

The euro has drifted toward its lowest levels against the dollar in years as Europe takes the brunt of a global growth slowdown. Investors are now questioning: How low can it go?

The currency briefly sank below $1.09 this week, the lowest since May 2017 and not far off the levels below $1.04 last reached in 2003.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The key to a currency union is a predetermined method of exit. Major countries in Africa are considering a single currency. I rather hope they learn the lesson of the Euro and write into the agreement the method, means, and agreement also for an exit.

U.K. Farmers Rush to Sell Produce Ahead of October Brexit Deadline .[Subscription Required]
October 3, 2019

British farmers are racing to ship this year’s abundant harvest out of the U.K. by Halloween, when Brexit could pull the country out of the world’s biggest free-trade zone overnight.

Leaving the European Union without a deal—as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pledged to do at the end of October if the bloc doesn’t meet certain demands—would hit British agricultural exports with customs duties, extra paperwork and checks on animal and plant health.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The bottom line, who decides what constitutes illegal content? It is a broad definition. This is a difficult question because who decides? Who watches the watchmen? Who decides what is illegal? Who censors the censors?

EU’s Top Court Backs Global Removal Of Illegal Content On Facebook.[Subscription Required]

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Anybody who puts a tariff on, taxes themselves. Tariffs do nothing but backfire until everything is more expensive. Since we have a currency that has a number before the decimal point, everybody pours in the dollar. When the dollar rises is more than 20%, all the prices of our goods and services go up 20%.

U.S. to Put Tariffs on European Planes, Whiskey, Cheese After WTO Ruling
October 3, 2019

The price of Scotch, French wine, cheese and other European exports is about to go up in the U.S. after the Trump administration announced new tariffs on billions of dollars of EU products starting Oct. 18.

President Donald Trump got the go-ahead from the World Trade Organization to impose tariffs on as much as $7.5 billion worth of European exports annually in retaliation for illegal government aid to Airbus. The award is the largest in WTO history.

However, there was relief for some firms as the U.S. removed leather goods from its original proposed list and measures on wine and spirits weren’t as severe as some expected. Shares of European luxury companies gained after a Wednesday slide on concerns about tariffs and falling sales in the key Hong Kong market. LVMH gained as much as 2.4%, Kering SA ticked up as much as 1.7%, and Hermes International by 1.4% in European trading on Thursday.

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

A Second Day Price Rise In Silver And Gold, Plus Another Nuthingburger!
October 2, 2019

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,   

      This is the second day in a row where we see Gold trading higher than the previous day with the price at $1,492.10, up $3.10 after reaching up to $1,494.10 with the low at $1,480.50. Silver is tagging along today with the trade at $17.345, up 4.8 cents and closer to the high of $17.395 than the low at $17.240. The US Dollar is also under support (for different reasons) with its value pegged at 98.865 up 8.8 points after stretching up to 99.08 with the low close by at 98.740. All of this was done, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      We have nothing but solid gains in our emerging markets overnight currency watch with Gold trading at 14,902.35 Bolivar in Venezuela showing a healthy gain of 181.77 in Bolivar value with Silver at 173.233 Bolivar showing a gain of 1.847 over the past 24 hours. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 86,128.98, gaining 1,250.94 Pesos with Silver gaining 11.873 in Peso value with the price at 999.997 Pesos. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 8,545.66 showing a gain of 162.72 in the overnight with Silver gaining 1.7339 Lira with the value pegged at 99.3391 Liras.    

      Silver Deliveries for the month of October really took a hit in count with the demands for physical now at 545 fully paid for contracts involving 5,000 ounces each proving a drop of 519 Obligations that where either delivered here or in London since yesterday’s early morning count. This morning’s trading range is in between $17.285 and $17.155 so far and with a Volume of 6 up on the board with the highest price being the last trade. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is continuing to drop in count as well. If the option numbers are any indication that an exit plan has been arranged a few years ago, we will see a slow and continuing drop in count from this point forward with the total Open Interest tally now at 212,299 Overnighters, proving a reduction of 1,068 from yesterday’s early morning count.    

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is only the beginning…!

NYC Housing Prices In Near ‘Free Fall,’ Conditions Mirror Recession Era Following Tax Hikes
October 1, 2019

NEW YORK – The Manhattan real estate market stumbled in the third quarter of 2019, new reports show, as prices plunged and fewer buyers were willing to purchase higher-priced properties in the wake of two recent tax increases.

The median sales price for properties fell 17 percent from the same quarter last year, to $999,950, according to new data from CORE. The average sales price dropped 12 percent, to $1.64 million.

Condo sales fell 8 percent, logging 946 transactions. Co-op sales, on the other hand, were up a modest 2 percent year over year.

“The third quarter of 2019 was undoubtedly the most challenging quarter in recent memory, especially for condo sales,” Garrett Derderian, managing director of market analysis at CORE, said in a statement. “Market prices have gone from what was once described as the kindest, gentlest correction to a near free-fall. The last time conditions were described in such a way was in the height of the recession.”

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The World Seems To Be On The Verge Of Change
October 1, 2019

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,   

      October 1st greets us with a positive price for the precious metals with Gold trading at $1,473.90, up $1 after reaching up to $1,480.90 with the low at $1,465.00. Silver is leading the trade at $17.16, up 16.2 cents and close to its high of $17.185 with the low at $16.940. The currency that’s keeping it all together is the US Dollar, with its value pegged at 99.10, up 7.9 points after reaching up to 99.235 with the low that is too high at 99.030. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      In Venezuela Gold is now priced at 14,720.58 Bolivar, still losing value as their currency strengthens with Silver priced at 171.386 Bolivar showing a reduction of 0.699 in value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 84,878.04 showing a 521.40 Peso reduction with Silver at 988.124, proving a gain of 0.462 in A-Peso value. The Turkish Lira now prices Gold at 8,382.94 shaving off 28.28 T-Lira with Silver at 97.6052 gaining 0.3333 Lira’s.   

      October Silver Deliveries now show the demand count at 1,064 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts proving a reduction of 109 obligations during yesterday’s trade and with a Volume of 2 up on the board so far this morning with a trading range between $16.96 and $16.925 with the last trade the high so far. Silver’s Total Open Interest drives the direction with the count now at 213,367 Overnighters showing a reduction of 5,465 from yesterday’s early morning count which may be proving some of the paper longs exiting but with the way things are these days who really knows?      

More…

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The bottom line is this, no paper currency can or will survive the fire of the coming defaults. The dollar may be the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket today but the entire basket will catch fire. It is the dollar system (post 1971) itself that allowed the over use of debt in all currencies. As an aside, the “confessions of an economic hitman” suggests over levering foreign central banks and treasuries has been a plan all along? .56 on the USDX, par, or even 120 will be a moot point when all is said and done because anything times zero is still zero…

The US Dollar Beast
October 1, 2019

John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) explains very well how to predict the winner of a beauty contest successfully. You must, he noted, think along the following lines: “(…) each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors (…). It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of use of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have to reach the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”1

This is a perspective that those may wish to take into consideration who think the US dollar is about to collapse, would be the ugliest of all currencies. Latest data from the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) speaks a rather different language. In its 2019 Triennial Survey,2 the BIS informs us that daily trading in foreign exchange markets had reached 6.6 trillion US dollar per day in April 2019 – compared to 5.1 trillion US dollar three years earlier – and that the US dollar remained the single-most important currency in the FX markets, being on one side of 88% of all the trades. For comparison: the euro was on one side of 32% of all trades, the Japanese yen of 17%, and the Chinese renminbi of just 4.3%.

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is a very interesting article, the first two paragraphs are exactly correct.

Hedge Fund CIO: You Should Be Buying Vol – MMT Is Coming Next And It Will Be Preceded By An Explosion In Volatility
September 29, 2019

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

We’re approaching a redistribution,” said the macro CIO, swinging through NY. We were discussing trades, themes, the big picture. “What lies behind us were all good things for asset owners, and what lies ahead is in many respects the opposite.” We were eating at some Greek place. “Investors rode a trend based on stock buybacks, high profit margins (which are the inverse of low wages), low taxes, and loose regulation of technology,” he said, holding up four fingers. “Now think about what lies ahead.” And he lowered each finger into a closed fist.

We hit peak inequality and it sparked a political response across the globe, I said. And it occurred at a time when monetary policy has largely hit its limit – those two things are obviously related. So now markets bump along with investors scrambling for sources of scarce yield, accepting more risk for less return, until something goes wrong – then the profound changes that are happening beneath the surface become clear. That’s when we see an enormous fiscal response, whether we call it MMT or not won’t matter. That’s what’s coming next.
“I spend a lot of time in Tokyo,” said the same CIO, dropping heavy names from his recent visit. “I’ve been pressing them for years to get seriously aggressive. When the government can borrow for 20-years at -0.20% in a nation filled with so many smart scientists, how can you not issue bonds and invest massively in primary science? Surely you’ll earn a positive return on that kind of investment – that’s not building bridges to nowhere,” he said. “But my contacts there can’t seem to wrap their heads around anything that challenges their orthodoxy.”

Established economic and political interests created myths about how economies work, I said in response. Entrenched interests fear change and will do everything possible to maintain the status quo. They created what we now call economic orthodoxy. But according to it, all this QE would have sparked massive inflation. Japan’s 250% Debt/GDP would have provoked economic collapse. But these things haven’t happened, because the myths are not truths. And as the faith in orthodoxy melts, established interests will fall, real change will come.

More…

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Beatings Continue, But So Do The Call Options Purchases in Silver!
September 30, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,   

      Today is the last day of our fiscal year (US federal government) and as usual the morality beatings continue with Gold trading at $1,489.80, down $16.60 after being pushed down to $1,486.20 with the high at $1,507.20. Silver is still being used as the Red Headed Step Child with its trade at $17.23, down 42.2 cents after being knocked to $17.16 with the high at $17.66. The US Dollars trade, on the last day of the year, is at 98.925, up 16.4 points and close to the high at 98.965 with the low at 98.71. All of this nonsense happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      Everything we are seeing in the currency’s arena is all about the support of the internationally accepted US Dollar mechanism (for now) with the emerging markets taking hits as well. In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 14,879.38 Bolivar down 1,168.50 over the weekend with Silver losing 4.845 with its super sale price now at 172.085 Bolivar. In Argentina, Gold is trading at 85,399.44 Pesos showing a reduction of 436.70 with Silver at 987.662 Pesos showing a reduction of 25.088. In Turkey, Gold’s price is at 8,411.22 Lira showing it too lost 84.98 with Silver at 97.2719 losing 2.9681 in T-Lira value.    

      October Silver Deliveries are now in full swing with the count at 1,173 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts and with a Volume of 25 up on the board so far today with a trading range of $17.505 and $17.165 with the last trade being the low and a single lot order. This is only 5,865,000 Ounces of a product that is needed in just about all electronics and showing only a slight 33 count reduction from Fridays tally. We know the criminal element is still allowed to trade precious metals, what we don’t know is what deal they made with the last administration and if that deal will be removed by Trump or if we’re to wait for the last bar to leave but one thing for sure is, the Resolutes are still Resoluting!    

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

My experience with China is that you don’t kick a sleeping dragon.

Hong Kong Protesters Taunt Beijing in Bid to Spoil Communist China’s Birthday
September 30, 2019

HONG KONG—Protesters here have dialed up attacks against the Chinese Communist Party ahead of mass demonstrations planned for the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China on Tuesday, renewing momentum for the protest movement by shaping it as a fight against authoritarianism.

More…

China Quietly Doubles Troop Levels In Hong Kong, Envoys Say
September 30, 2019

Last month, Beijing moved thousands of troops across the border into this restive city. They came in on trucks and armored cars, by bus and by ship.

The state news agency Xinhua described the operation as a routine “rotation” of the low-key force China has kept in Hong Kong since the city’s handover from Britain in 1997. No mention was made of the anti-government protests that have been shaking the metropolis since June.

It was a plausible report: China has maintained a steady level of force in the territory for years, regularly swapping troops in and out. And days earlier, according to an audio recording obtained by Reuters, embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam had told local businesspeople that China had “absolutely no plan” to order the army to put down the demonstrations.

A month on, Asian and Western envoys in Hong Kong say they are certain the late-August deployment was not a rotation at all, but a reinforcement. Seven envoys who spoke to Reuters said they didn’t detect any significant number of existing forces in Hong Kong returning to the mainland in the days before or after the announcement.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

In the last two weeks, this headline is almost a daily event. It has greater implications than most reports are willing to give. If you take a look back, every time we have a systematic financial problem, the first market to start showing it is the repo market. It could be that a cashless society is not the great idea that everybody says it is.

Fed Adds $63.5 Billion To Financial System In Repo Transaction
September 30, 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $63.5 billion to the financial system Monday, using the market for repurchase agreements, or repo, to relieve funding pressure in money markets.

Banks asked for $63.5 billion in overnight reserves, all of which the Fed accepted, offering collateral in the form of U.S. Treasury and mortgage securities.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The administration is backing off of their blanket statement, and that even should be considered last week’s news.

Exclusive: Nasdaq Cracks Down On Ipos Of Small Chinese Companies
September 29, 2019

(Reuters) – Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ.O) is cracking down on initial public offerings (IPOs) of small Chinese companies by tightening restrictions and slowing down their approval, according to regulatory filings, corporate executives and investment bankers.

Nasdaq’s attempt to limit these stock market flotations comes as a growing number of them end up raising most of the capital in their IPO from Chinese sources, rather than from U.S. investors.

The shares of most small Chinese companies trade thinly following their U.S. listing, because most of them stay in the hands of a few insiders. Their low liquidity makes them unattractive to many large institutional investors, to whom Nasdaq is seeking to cater.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following is the party line of the operative thought that this is the first time since the Great Recession, and is not occurring because it is simple technical reasons.  You must find the real reason why this is happening.

The New York Fed Chief Is Facing His Biggest Test. Here’s His Response.
September 29, 2019

John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has spent the past two weeks grappling with the regional bank’s most tumultuous period in years.

Since Sept. 16, a shortage of dollars in an obscure but crucial corner of short-term Wall Street funding, called the repo market, has forced the New York Fed to engage in an ongoing series of market interventions — a first since the Great Recession. The effort is an attempt to keep the central bank’s benchmark rate from accidentally creeping higher.

The situation is the biggest test so far for Mr. Williams — who took the helm of the New York Fed in June 2018 — and one that many market analysts say deserves a less-than-stellar grade.

While officials have succeeded in getting interest rates under control, some investors have criticized the Fed for moving too hesitantly when problems first arose, waiting until rates on repurchase, or repo, agreements had skyrocketed and briefly spilled over, pushing the Fed’s benchmark rate above its intended range.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The market is driven heavily by computer decisions devoid of fear and greed. As long as momentum continues up, prices continue up.

U.S. Stocks Rise to Cap Volatile Quarter
September 30, 2019

The S&P 500 jumped Monday, on track to enter the fourth quarter with its biggest year-to-date gain in more than two decades.

The broad stock-market index has rallied 19% this year—its best performance in the first three quarters of a year since 1997. The advance comes alongside a rally in both bonds and commodities.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The scramble for yields is a primary reason for the appreciation of the dollar. It is one of the few currencies, and the only major currency to exist, with a number before the decimal point.

Investors Scramble for Yield as Growth Outlook Darkens
September 30, 2019

This article is part of the Journal’s quarterly markets review, “Investing in a Low-Yield World.”

The world is again running low on yield.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The entire world is experiencing economic reversal as US figures announce a questionable miracle of a boom of all time.

Beijing Takes Stakes in Private Firms to Keep Them Afloat
September 30, 2019

SHANGHAI—China is snapping up stakes in private companies at a record rate, as the trade war, economic slowdown and credit squeeze heap pressure on entrepreneurs.

The investments mark a reversal after decades in which state-owned enterprises have shrunk in importance, as reflected in measures such as their share of the workforce or asset ownership. Since China’s public-sector companies are typically less efficient or innovative than their private rivals, the shopping spree could lead to a fresh drag on growth.

Private enterprises are in a weaker position because they have comparatively poorer access to cheap bank loans and other types of financing, and have also been squeezed by Beijing’s moves to reduce pollution and overproduction.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What is not a technology share?

Apple And Merck Drive Wall Street Higher As Trade Worries Abate
September 30, 2019

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks rose on Monday, helped by surges in Apple and Merck & Co as investors set aside worries about the U.S.-China trade war.

Shares of Apple (AAPL.O) rose 2.4% after Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook told a German daily that sales of the company’s newest iPhones were off to a strong start, while JP Morgan raised its forecast for shipment volumes. Apple is struggling to reverse shrinking iPhone sales amid tepid global demand for smartphones.

The S&P 500 technology index .SPLRCT and the health care index .SPXHC both added about 1.3%, leading other sectors.

Sentiment on Wall Street also got a boost after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro dismissed reports that the Trump administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges as “fake news.”

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This will cause market upset.

Kurt Volker, Trump’s Envoy For Ukraine, Resigns

September 27, 2019

WASHINGTON — Kurt D. Volker, the State Department’s special envoy for Ukraine who got caught in the middle of the pressure campaign by President Trump and his lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, to find damaging information about Democrats, abruptly resigned his post on Friday.

Mr. Volker, who told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday that he was stepping down, offered no public explanation, but a person informed about his decision said he concluded that it was impossible to be effective in his assignment given the developments of recent days.

His departure was the first resignation since revelations about Mr. Trump’s efforts to pressure Ukraine’s president to investigate former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and other Democrats. The disclosures have triggered a full-blown House impeachment inquiry, and House leaders announced on Friday that they planned to interview Mr. Volker in a deposition on Thursday.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Whatever Trump wants is going to be blocked bringing more discomfort to the marketplace.

U.S. Judge Blocks Trump Rule On Migrant Child Detention
September 27, 2019

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – A U.S. judge on Friday blocked a Trump administration rule that would have allowed indefinite detention of migrant families, saying it was inconsistent with a decades-old court settlement that governs conditions for migrant children in U.S. custody.

The 1997 settlement agreement, which originated in 1985 with a complaint brought on behalf of 15-year-old Salvadoran immigrant Jenny L. Flores, set standards for humane treatment of children in detention and ordered their prompt release in most cases.

The Trump administration had hoped a new rule issued on Aug. 23 would replace the settlement, which had been modified over the years to prevent the long-term detention of families. The administration had said its rule would allow families to be held in humane conditions while their U.S. immigration court cases were decided.

The judge disagreed.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Interference by countries in each other’s markets is, in today’s world, an act of war. No one understands the Chinese but the Chinese making their reaction to any serious move as problematic. Play brinkmanship with the Chinese can prove suicidal. Trump delisting Chinese businesses from the market will only result in China doing the same. Accomplishing nothing. In fact, the whole idea of tariff wars accomplishes nothing positive whatsoever.

White House Weighs Blocking Chinese Companies From U.S. Exchanges
September 27, 2019

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is discussing whether to block Chinese companies from listing shares on American stock exchanges, the latest push to try to sever economic ties between the United States and China, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

The internal discussions are in their early stages and no decision is imminent, these people cautioned.

The talks come as senior officials from both countries are scheduled to resume trade negotiations in Washington early next month. President Trump, who has continued to give mixed signals about the prospect of a trade deal with China, said earlier this week that an agreement could come “sooner than you think.” His decision to delay an increase in tariffs until mid-October and China’s recent purchases of American agricultural products has fueled optimism that the talks could produce an agreement.

But the prospect of further limiting American investment in China underscores the challenge that the two sides will continue to face even as they try to de-escalate a trade war that has shaken the global economy. The administration has already increased scrutiny of foreign investment with a particular eye toward China, including expanding the types of investments that can be subject to a national security review.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Tariffs are always a tax on a country that levies the tariff.

Wall Street Week Ahead: Data Will Show Damage Of Tariffs, Strong Dollar On U.S. Goods Exporters
September 27, 2019

NEW YORK (Reuters) – It’s no longer a probability, it’s a reality: the escalating U.S.-China trade war and the strengthening dollar appear to be inflicting measurable damage on U.S. goods makers that rely on global markets.

Market participants will get a picture of the extent to which trade tensions and currency have hurt U.S. manufacturers when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its purchasing managers index (PMI) USPMI=ECI for September on Tuesday.

Its August report showed the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy, contracting in for the first time in 3-1/2 years, and more worryingly, its export component hit a more than 10-year low.

“The exporters are at least a half a step or full step closer to the predicted recession,” said Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist, senior portfolio manager at SlateStone Wealth LLC in New York.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A repo is a short term loan of cash from the central bank to a financial institution. Many excuses have been given for this problem. They range from a new cashless economy to various other commercial means for money. In truth, the need to place as much money as more than $50B per day suggests a financial failure somewhere in the global economy.

The Fed Is Girding For Repo Trouble Monday Even As Market Calms
September 27, 2019

The repo market has calmed down, but the Federal Reserve is gearing up its safeguards seemingly to prevent turmoil from resurfacing on Monday.

Last week’s craziness was not the first time in recent memory that U.S. money markets have shown signs of stress. It’s tended to happen around quarter-end, most notably in late December.

The third quarter ends Monday. So, for the past two days, the New York Fed has run $100 billion overnight repo operations — bigger than the $75 billion daily liquidity injections that began early last week — plus separate 14-day operations. Neither of Friday’s actions were fully subscribed and short-term lending rates are well below the peak seen last week, a sign order has been restored for now.

But on Monday, that larger $100 billion size will be repeated and the overnight operation will run from 7:45 a.m. to 8 a.m. New York time, earlier than prior morning actions. Both signal the Fed is getting ready in case rates spike again.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see some volatility,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “The Fed has provided enough liquidity for now, but there are some large Treasury settlements so you’ll have large pressures.”

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

That is a fig leaf amongst many thorns.

British Tanker Docks In Dubai After Detention By Iran
September 28, 2019

DUBAI/STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – A British-flagged tanker that was detained by Iran for 10 weeks, docked in Dubai on Saturday, after a standoff that has stoked tensions along a vital global shipping route for oil.

The Stena Impero, which sailed out of Iranian waters on Friday, was seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on July 19, shortly after British forces detained an Iranian tanker off the territory of Gibraltar. The Iranian ship was released in August.

The Stena Impero docked at Dubai’s Port Rashid, a Reuters photographer reported from the harbor.

Erik Hanell, the chief executive of Sweden’s Stena Bulk, which owns the ship, told Reuters in Stockholm in a text message earlier in the day that the tanker was “finally approaching berth in Dubai.”

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This type of event is predictable in the marketplace where the Federal Reserve is revealing significant problems short-term money market. These two events spoken about most this weekend are not causes, they are the effect of the money market confusion.

After Wework Debacle, IPO Market Slams Brakes On Unprofitable Companies
September 27, 2019

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Companies making their debut on the U.S. stock market are getting a rough welcome, especially if they are losing money, casting a shadow over the calendar for initial public offerings for the rest of the year.

The surprise postponement of the WeWork IPO has underscored how confidence is eroding in the market both for companies looking to raise capital and investors.

A more discerning market for initial public offerings continued to punish Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O on Friday, a day after it began trading. Shares of the fitness startup closed down 2% at $25.24 and are now off 13% from their IPO price. The company is now trading 15% below its Wednesday IPO price.

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Ag – Huge Purchases Means Lower Prices!!
September 27, 2019

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,    

      They just keep beating the metals lower and lower with Gold’s trade now at $1,501.50, down $13.70 after they forced to price down to $1,497.20 with the high starting point at $1,514.40. Silver is down 33.2 cents with the price at $17.715 after it was pushed to $17.62 with the high to beat at $18.065. One would expect the Dollar to be rallied in heavy fashion but it’s not, as the trade will prove, with its value stuck at 98.815, up 5 points after being pushed to 98.955 with the low to beat at 98.79. All of this was done by Algo’s, while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 14,996.23 Bolivar proving a reduction in price of 117.67 in Bolivar value (here is the current “old” price before they reduced all the zeros = 31,210,215.78 VES). Silver is now trading at 176.93 Bolivar showing a reduction of 2.05 Bolivar (its new “old” price = 366,607.33VES before the zeros were removed). In Argentina, where the zeros haven’t been dropped yet (the Peso used to be tied to the Dollar 1 to 1) shows Gold trading at 85,836.14 Pesos, a loss of 421.78 with Silver now at 1,012.75 Pesos, proving a loss of 8.55 in A-Peso value. In Turkey, Gold’s price is now pegged at 8,496.20 T-Lira, down another 70.62 with Silver losing 1.18 Lira with it price at 100.24.    

More…

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Even when there is video proof and admission of bribery while in office, these people still slide…We either have a rule of law for everyone equally or we do not even have a country!

J. Johnson’s Latest – These Silver Buyers Are Staying Resolute!
September 26, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,    

      Gold is higher at the moment with the trade at $1,513.20, up $1.20 after reaching up to $1,518 before being pulled back during London’s trading period with the low close by at $1,510. Silver is still being pressured with the trade at $17.92, down 15.3 cents and right at the low (17.910) with the high at $18.105. As we’ve mentioned over the years, the strength of the US Dollar will be challenged, but for now, the support is still holding strong with its value at 98.72, up 6.2 points with its high close by at 98.76 with the low at 98.495. All of this activity, which is going against our national interests, happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      The international banking pressures are still controlling the prices of precious metals. In Venezuela the Bolivar is pricing Gold at 15,113.09, dropping 224.71 Bolivar with Silver losing 6.62 Bolivar with its price at 178.98. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold priced at 86,257.92 proving a 584.83 Peso drop in value with Silver doing the same losing 29.68 Pesos with the price at 1,021.30 Pesos. In Turkey, Gold is now getting 8,566.82 Lira for one ounce losing 13.83 Lira with Silver at 101.42 showing it too lost 3.91 in T-Lira value.   

      September Silver Deliveries continues with the demand count now at 18 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with Zero Volume up on the board so far in the early morning. This proves that only 2 contracts where delivered during yesterday’s heavy drop in price.    

More…

A J. Johnson Update

Good Afternoon Folks,

      It is 11:30 PST and I am now looking at the numbers for September Silver and it’s deliveries. The final day for physical purchases is Monday, before the Comex close (10:25 am pst). Today’s Volume is now at 94 with the Open Interest still at 18. The trading range for these purchases (even though some of these might be spread exits) is $17.91 and $17.85 with the last trade at $17.90 on a 3 lot purchase. Is someone buying because there is a reason or purpose? Is this a response to the exercised Call Options in October? Wish I had answers too, regardless I’m still curious about the tomorrows, how about you?

Stay Resolute!

J. Johnson

Posted by & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Criminal Element Has Done Everything It Could To Opaque The Data
September 25, 2019

Great and Wonderful Hump Day Morning Folks,   

      Gold is trading lower in the early morning with the December price at $1,535.70, down $4.50 and close to the low at $1,535 with the high to beat at $1,542.80. Silver is trading lower in December’s contract and higher in the Sept with December’s trade at $18.585, down 4.3 cents after hitting as low as $18.53 with the high to beat at $18.75. The US Dollar is the reason why the metals are not trading higher under our currency but it will (soon enough) with the value pegged at 98.33, up 40.3 points and near the high at 98.34 with a low we need to see get clocked at 97.965. All of this “Strong Dollar Policy” activity that is still in play, was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      We have a mish mash mix up in the emerging markets today with the currency calculators being in a “whack” mode this morning. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 15,337.80 Bolivar adding an additional 75.9 Bolivar to the price with Silver now at 185.62 Bolivar showing the metal of the people lost 0.20 in its Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 86,842.75 Pesos showing a loss of 138.09 Pesos with Silver now at 1,050.98 Pesos showing a loss of 8.08 in A-Peso value. In Turkey the Lira now has Gold priced at 8,705.12 Lira, showing a gain of 14.29 with Silver at 105.33 showing a loss of 0.45 in T-Lira value.   

More…

J. Johnson Update 

The October Calls in Silver are now expired as of 2 minutes ago. The Open Interest Totals in Oct 2019, at $18.05 and below, total 9,175 In the money Calls…With the Open Interest in October Silver at 1,431 … Maybe we will see something of a bump in Open Interest in Oct tomorrow. Regardless, the Criminal Element is still working because it’s allowed to….(for now).

Stay Strong!

J. Johnson