Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Economics in 5 minutes from Erik…sort of.

The World Will Return To A Golden Rule_001

The World Will Return To A Golden Rule_002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

“This is a perfect environment for gold to take center stage,” the letter said, as spot gold traded at about $1,741 an ounce. Fair value for the metal, the fund believes “is literally multiples of its current price.” Paul Singer

Exclusive: Hedge Fund Elliott Says Stocks Could Fall 50% From February Highs – Letter
April 16, 2020

BOSTON (Reuters) – Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management said global stocks could tumble further, ultimately losing half or more of their value from February’s high, as the world braces for the deepest recession since the 1930s-era Great Depression.

The New York-based hedge fund firm, in a letter to clients on Wednesday seen by Reuters, wrote that the sharp market decline seen between late February and late March “provided a heavy bookend to a dozen years of basically nonstop positive returns in global stocks, bonds and real estate.”

And the rout is likely not yet over.

“Our gut tells us that a 50% or deeper decline from the February top might be the ultimate path of global stock markets,” said Elliott, which controls $40.4 billion in assets and is closely watched for its views on markets and economics.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

As per today’s subscription article…

Historic Oil Crash Sends Canadian Oil Prices Negative
April 20, 2020

When Goldman’s crude oil analysts turned apocalyptic last month, writing that “This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes”, they echoed something we said previously namely that the record surge in excess oil output amounting to a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily or roughly 20% of the daily market…

crude demand crashing

… the result of the historic crash in oil demand (estimated by Trafigura at 36mmb/d) which is so massive it steamrolled over last week’s OPEC+ 9.7mmb/d production cut, could send the price of landlocked crude oil negative: “this shock is extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”

We didn’t have long to wait, because while oil prices for virtually all grades have now collapsed below cash costs…

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

May crude is now NEGATIVE $7 per barrel! Can you imagine the margin calls…not to mention the OTC derivatives in all this? As I wrote in my earlier article, the “ripple” effects will be fascinating in a horrifying way! Negative oil I can understand because of the storage issue, negative interest rates not so much… (As of 11:21AM PST)

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

While we definitely disagree with Martin Armstrong regarding gold and a few other financial conclusions, the following is quite good. In fact, this quote may be his best ever?

“I hope we do not go gradually into that darkness of tyranny. I fear most of all for my family and what I will leave behind at the close of my life. So I rage against the dying light of freedom, not for myself, but for my legacy. All I can say is I pray for civilization, for this lockdown is the first step toward tyranny and we are slipping gradually into that darkness where the tree of liberty withers and dies. This is the true price of socialism. It is never about the people, it is only about empowering the state. When freedom is lost, it can never be restored by peaceful means if history is a witness to the folly of human society. Liberty once lost is lost forever. There have been bloodless revolutions as was the case in Russia in 1991. That requires the military and the police to open their eyes and realize they are defending tyranny against their own families. If that can be accomplished, then the mighty fall without the arm of oppression.”

Martin Armstrong

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do they really have 92 tons that can be delivered this month?…Stay tuned!

COMEX Bombshell – Most eligible vaulted gold has nothing to do with COMEX
April 15, 2020

In the midst of the ongoing fractures in the paper gold markets that have triggered bullion bank panic from London to New York, forcing their public , the LBMA and CME Group (COMEX) to

claiming “healthy gold stocks in New York and London”, we have consistently reminded those interested in the topic that the claims of the LBMA-COMEX do not stand up to scrutiny, in regards to both the London gold float, and the deliverable gold inventories in the COMEX approved New York vaults, especially when it comes to ‘Eligible gold’.

To wit, from recent BullionStar articles:

– “Eligible gold just means any gold which happens to be in the approved COMEX vaults that is in the form of 1 kilo bars or 100 oz bars. Essentially, this could be anything. It is gold that is already owned by random entities, which would include mints, refiners, and jewellery companies, so eligible gold may have absolutely nothing to do with COMEX or CME.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Does this chart mean anything to you?

Can you say French Revolution?

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Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 5.245 Million, Raising Monthly Loss To 22 Million Due To Coronavirus
April 16, 2020

Protection measures against the coronavirus continued to tear through the employment ranks, with 5.245 million more Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That brings the crisis total to just over 22 million, nearly wiping out all the job gains since the Great Recession.

The total was a bit worse than the 5 million expected from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

Though the most recent count, for the week ended April 11, represented a drop from the previous two weeks, it showed that the damage to the U.S. labor market remains profound.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Just when people want gold and silver the most…this happens?

US Mint Halts All Production Over Virus Fears As Gold & Silver Coin Demand Nears Record Highs
April 15, 2020

Just as the premium between physical and paper precious metals prices was starting to fade a little, the US Mint has decided to temporally halt all production at its West Point facility in New York because of the risk to employees from COVID-19.

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The timing of the decision to halt supply could not come at a worse time with demand for both gold and silver coins soaring near record highs…

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Retail Sales Plunge A Record 8.7% In March As Coronavirus Crisis Freezes U.S. Economy
April 15, 2020

The numbers: The onset of the coronavius pandemic triggered a record 8.7% slump sales at U.S. retailers in March as large swaths of the economy shut down — and there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.

Sales fell for the second month in a row in what’s likely to be a prolonged period of agony for an industry that still relies heavily on foot traffic and customers bunched together when they shop.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Uhm, does the word “reset” ring a bell? They are getting you ready for reset #1. This one will not hold, Mother Nature will have her way during the second one.

Global ‘Jubilee’ Looms As G20 Finalizes Debt Relief Program For World’s Poorest Countries
April 12, 2020

Hours after Pope Francis on Easter Sunday morning said the debt burden on the most impoverished countries should be forgiven (aka debt jubilee), the Financial Times is now reporting that the G20 group is nearing a critical “action plan” to freeze debt servicing payments for poor countries to stave off an emerging-market meltdown.

The new relief program could be finalized on April 15 on a videoconference of finance ministers and central bank governors. The plan would “freeze on sovereign debt repayments for six or nine months, or possibly through to 2021,” the official told the Times.

The official said developed countries and multilateral institutions would use this period to write up “very clear criteria, country-by-country of what exactly is going to happen. Is it debt relief totally? Is it just a deferment, a rescheduling?”

“For debt relief to happen, it would take time for it to be co-ordinated,” the official said.

“But what is immediately needed is to give these people space so they don’t need to worry about the cash flow and debt servicing going to other countries, and they can use that money for their immediate needs,” the official said, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

Last week, the British-based Jubilee Debt Campaign called for a worldwide debt jubilee to avoid some of the world’s poorest countries from collapsing into chaos amid the COVID-19 crisis.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Food glut? Has anyone tried to purchase a deep freezer lately? Good luck with that…and meat of ALL sorts to follow. Have you watched the news and connected the dots? Please don’t mention this to the kids because they will tell you, you are effin’ nuts! You are not. If you cannot buy toilet paper the logical question is, what’s next?

Farmers Battered By Food Glut As COVID-19 Shifts How America Eats
April 11, 2020

The trade war has battered US farmers over the last several years only now to be sucker-punched by COVID-19, which has transformed how Americans eat, resulting in massive food gluts across the country, reports The Wall Street Journal.

With at least 95% of Americans under government-enforced stay-at-home public safety orders, restaurants have been forced to close. Only a few are providing curbside pickup, but even then, many Americans do not trust other people preparing their food.

We’ve been documenting the state of the restaurant industry, on a state by state basis, now showing traffic is down 100% in nearly every state for the first seven days of April.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

So let me get this right, 40% of global silver production is shut down at the same time silver supply for sale has been swept clean by exploding demand worldwide? Yet silver (paper) is down 25 cents this morning? LOL!!! The day is near, you either own physical gold and silver or you do not…and will not in the future!

PERU EXTENDS LOCK-DOWN ALONG WITH MEXICO: An Estimated 40% Of Global Silver Mine Supply Now Offline
April 10, 2020

Now that the Peruvian Government announced an extension of the country’s state of emergency until April 26th, the world’s first and second-largest silver producers have taken 40% of global silver mine supply offline for a month. Actually, Peru first announced its national quarantine on March 15th. So, the country’s mines will be shut down for more than a month when the state of emergency is projected to end on April 26th. But, will it?

According to the Reuters article, Peru’s Vizcarra extends state of emergency to April 26th; the country will remain on lockdown for an additional two weeks:

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