Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The lastest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– INITIAL FIRST-QUARTER 2019 GDP ESTIMATE WAS NOT CREDIBLE
– Downturn Has Just Begun; Recession Remains in Play, With FOMC-Generated Financial Stresses Still Diminishing Consumer Activity
– Consumer Controls 72% of GDP, but Generated Only 22% of GDP Growth
– Advance First-Quarter Real GDP Gain of 3.17% Topped Consensus Forecasts, Strengthened Against 2.17% in the Fourth-Quarter, Yet the Numbers Were of Unusually Poor Quality
– Bureau of Economic Analysis Is Hamstrung by Data-Quality Issues Tied to Underlying Government Shutdown Reporting Disruptions and Distortions
– Only Two Months of the First-Quarter Trade Deficit Were Available, Where Initial Quarterly GDP Estimates Usually Are Based on Three Months
– That Two-Month Quarterly Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply, Signaling a Great Recession Style Collapse in Personal Consumption; That Deficit Guess Was the Largest Single Positive Contribution to First-Quarter GDP Growth
– Positive Impact of the Deficit Narrowing Should Have Been Offset by an Even Greater Decline in Goods Consumption, Which Dropped Sharply, But Not Enough
– Three Months of Likely Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Follow, Into the July 26th GDP Benchmarking
– Broad Money Supply Velocity Slowed in First-Quarter 2019, Suggestive of a Slowing Economy

“Bullet Edition No. 7”
www.shadowstats.com

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Sir Richard Russell spoke of this many years ago until his death. He termed it the “synthetic dollar short”. A VERY REAL CONCEPT! We will discuss this on Saturday’s call.

China’s Dollar Problem Comes Out Of The Shadows
April 16, 2019

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Once you see the whole thing, you can’t unsee it. But therein lies the problem. It is so far out there away from mainstream convention getting anyone to recognize what their eyes are recording is an enormous task. Even when someone happens to uncover, for themselves, a significant piece it is often too unfamiliar to truly appreciate its significance.

In Plato’s Republic, the philosopher tells of his brother being taught by Socrates through the allegory of the cave. Prisoners chained up living forever inside the dark space only perceive the wider outside world via shadows projected upon a blank wall as objects or other people pass by a fire. These inmates even give these shadows names and think of them as real.

They never desire to leave, either. What they know of existence is all they want to know. The shadows suffice for their worldview, having never seen the outside. But once broken out and into the world, the world of observation, they can never go back to the shadows.

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All Currencies Are Tied Together Within the Central Banking System
April 26, 2019

Good Friday Morning Folks!   

      Gold is trading higher this morning and is right now at $1,282.90, up $3.20 and right in the middle of its London created trading range between $1,285.40 and $1,278.90. Silver is leading the charge higher with its trade at $15.035, up 7.5 cents with the high at $15.09 and the low at $14.955. The US Dollar has some profit taking going on, by the longs, sending the cleanest turd in the fiat toilet down 5.9 points at 97.86, up from the lowest point at 97.80 with the starting point at 97.95. All this of course was done before 5 am pst, before the Comex open, and the closing in London.   

      The emerging markets are starting to bubble, a lot, and just under the surface of the primaries, with Venezuela’s new price for Gold at 12,812.96 gaining another 46.94 Bolivar overnight with Silver now at 150.162, a gain of 1.398 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold now stands at 57,807.37, gaining 1,790.71 Peso’s overnight in what can only be labeled as shocking! Especially if one just so happens to be long a precious metals futures contract in the country under that currency. Silver under the A-Peso trade is now priced at 677.464, gaining another 22.759 overnight.    

      April Comex Silver Deliveries are coming to an end with a show of 1 still up on the board and with zero Volume posted so far this morning. We did have another buyer step into the fray yesterday and was settled out already making us wonder if this one lone buyer (who maybe waiting for his receipt) got stepped over in the FIFO (First In – First Out) of fairness. Also of note, there was a buy order out there totaling 27 demands for physical at $14.875 during yesterday’s Comex trading period and apparently he’s still trying to get something going with a buy order now at $14.925 with a 24 count “Bid” still waiting for a fill. Silver’s Overall Open Interest remains elevated with 214,818 Overnighters still in play proving another 435 positions left during yesterday’s trade.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Mind blowing when you compare current day to the “heights” of debt at the end of WWII!

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A whiff of inflation?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Truly, This Is An Anomaly!
April 25, 2019

  Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is lower in the last hours of trade in London with the value at $1,278.20 down $1.20, recovering from the low at $1,275.20 with the high so far at $1,280.40. Silver is leading the early morning dip with its trade at $14.905, down 9.1 cents and right beside the low of $14.895 with the high right at the magic marker price at $15. The US Dollar continues to be rallied, in fact the value is the highest since April ‘18, with its trade at 98.015, up 16 points and right beside its high at 98.02 and a low at 97.715. All this of course was done while we sleep, before 5 am pst and way before the Comex Open.     

      Venezuela’s currency now has Gold priced at 12,766.02, a gain of 41.94 Bolivar with Silver at 148.764 Bolivar, it too gaining .251. Argentina, another nation under emerging market currency stress, now has Gold priced at 56,016.66 Pesos GAINING 200.658 overnight with Silver GAINING 24.348 with the price now at 654.705 Pesos. Once again, these contracts control 100 ounces of Gold and 5,000 ounces in Silver. Our belief is these price swings will happen in the primaries soon enough, so get ready to get your game on!   

      Silver’s April Deliveries are all but dead with the demand count still at 1 and with zero Volume up on the board. Ag’s Overall Open Interest dropped 5,521 Overnighters during yesterday’s rally with today’s activity all focusing on the May Options expirations then the rolling over into May’s Deliveries, where the Open Interest in this contract still remains quite elevated at 44,669 contracts or 223,345,000 ounces standing in the way. There are 20,483 Call options in May Silver with a much smaller amount of Put options that will be either closed out or exercised into contracts making the next day or 2 interesting (we hope). Maybe we’ll see some excitement going into next week.    

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The Comex Market is now known as the World’s Non-Trading Period
April 24, 2019

 Great and Wonderful Wednesday Mornings Folks,   

      June Gold is trying to rise higher but those paper sellers, who short with impunity, now have the noble metal trading up 80 cents at $1,274. This time the trade is closer to the high at $1,275.70 than the low at $1,270.50. Silver is doing the exact same thing with its July trade at $14.87, up ½ a penny and right by its high of $14.90 with the low at $14.82. The US Dollar is still the “go to” currency as the buyers, too afraid to invest in Euro-anything, move forward with the trade at 97.365, pushing the value up another 4.5 points with the high so far at 97.45 and the low at 97.265. All this of course is done way before 5 am pst and the Comex market opening, which is now known as, the world’s non-trading period.     

      Our emerging currency market watch now shows Gold’s value under the Venezuelan currency at 12,724.08 Bolivar, losing only 3.99 overnight with Silver’s value now pegged at 148.514, dropping 1.299 Bolivar over the last 24 hours. The Argentine Peso now has Gold priced at 54,010.08 losing 110.33 in value with Ag at 630.357, a loss of 6.679 Pesos. The violent swings continue within the emerging currencies and under the calm surface of the primaries as the fate of fiat continues to its end.    

      We still have no new purchases of physical Silver showing up in the April delivery period as the count remains at 1 with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. The paper shorts had to add, in order to stay the price, with the total count now at 219,904 Overnighters, proving a gain of 1,871 helping to keep things steady and controlled. Of note is a large purchase made yesterday in the already over purchased July Silver 2019 Call Options at the $15.50 Strike and only 60 cents away from the futures market price. Yesterday’s volume on this one strike showed a count of 941 when the Open Interest was at 955. This morning’s OI count shows the total at 1,489 with a closing price at 13.9 cents proving an additional $380,860 being added to the fray. A reminder here; over 1 ½ years ago, July and December 2019 Silver Options had more purchases done than all the other months combined. Someone spent 10’s of millions of dollars making those original purchases further out in time than ever before and now we’re getting closer to finding out if this was a hedge against their paper shorts in the futures market or another bad trade. Also of note, there are no other massive purchases done further out in 2020 or 2021, making this massive past purchase an anomaly.     

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A plague has overtaken California. JSMineset is a PG rated site so I cannot tell you what I really think…

Pedophilia Being Taught As “Sexual Orientation” in California Schools
April 17, 2019

Government school officials in California think it is “really important” to teach children about pedophilia and pederasty in the classroom because it is a “sexual orientation.” That is according to a top official for California’s Brea Olinda School District, who admitted to parents that it was being done — and that it would continue, despite the outrage. The implications are mind-blowing.

The stunning admission came after a parent-information meeting last month for the Brea Olinda Unified School District (BOUSD). Stephanie Yates, founder of Informed Parents of California, asked school officials why they were “teaching pedophilia in school to 9th graders.” But instead of a denial that such an atrocity was taking place, a top school official confirmed it was happening and acted like there was nothing wrong with it.

“This is done because we are talking about historical perspectives of how gender relations and different types of sexual orientations have existed in history,” said BOUSD Assistant Superintendent of Curricula Kerrie Torres in a matter-of-fact way, sounding almost oblivious to how the bombshell might sound to normal people.

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The Pool Of Money At The Top Is Losing Volume
April 23, 2019

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,     

      Gold is trading lower at $1,274.40, down $3.20 and right by its bottom at $1,273.20, with the high to beat at $1,278.50. The Tag-A-Long Kid (Silver) is following its name with the trade at $15.00 (July), it too is right beside the low of $14.98 with the high at $15.08. The US Dollar is doing nothing as well with its trade at 97.025, up 7 points with the high at 97.075 and the low so far at 96.955. All this non-activity was done while we sleep, before Comex opens, and all the while the City trades without any rumored physicals involved.     

      The exact opposite of calm trading is happening in the emerging markets with the Venezuela currency moving the price swings of Gold higher and harder in each direction with the price now down 55.93 Bolivar at 12,728.07. Silver is doing the same thing, losing .799 Bolivar taking back some of the previous day’s gain as we can only imagine how tired the traders must be after 2 years of price swing insanity (God I Miss Those Days). Another emerging market currency, the Argentinian Peso, shows Gold now at 54,120.41, gaining another 669.65 overnight with Silver now at 637.036, adding a whopping 6.498 Argentinian Pesos.     

       April Silvers physical demands have done nothing since last week as the count remains at 1 and with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. The buyer that was attempting to accumulate seems to have given up or has not placed his order as of yet, so the wait game continues to prove supplies are still keeping things going (for now). Ag’s Overall Open Interest lost 3,007 Overnighters bringing the count to 218,033 obligations in trade, with 2 days left before the options expire and the rollovers are complete.       

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We Will Have A Plethora Of Fat Tail Calls In Silver And Gold!

April 22, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,  

     We start our morning off with Gold trading higher at $1,280, up $4 with the high at $1,281.90 and the low at $1,277.40. Silver is following along, when it should be leading, trading at $15.08 (July) with the high at $15.12 and the low at $15.05. The US Dollar seems to be skimming across the same amount of water with the value pegged at 97.005, down 14.6 points with the low at 96.985 and the high at 97.10. Of course all this was done while we sleep and way before the Comex open, and right before we all go back to sleep again. Our Venezuelan currency, in massive print mode, now has Gold priced at 12,784.00, a gain of 10.99 Bolivar over the weekend with Silver now pegged at 150.612, a humongous gain of 1.249 during the same time period. We will eventually have this type of rise in the precious metals under the primary currencies of the world, when that does happen, we will have a plethora of Fat Tail Calls in both Silver and Gold (Commodity Options) to discuss, and how the banks used these instruments to not only control the price, but how they were used to help clear all these overwhelming shorts that seem to bypass the keen eyes of the CFTC compliance departments, that are supposed to regulate the algomated short trade hedges.    

     The April delivery requests for Silver remain stagnated with the demand for physical at 1 with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. Of note, the buyer is still there trying to acquire another 38 contracts at 14.99, we’ll see if a seller takes the price which may cause the sensation we’ve been waiting for, after all, the physical product seems to be harder to find since the price is below all refining and extraction costs. The rollover into the July Contracts during Thursday’s trade now exceeds May’s OI, pushing the Overall Open Interest to 221,040 as of this morning, gaining 952 Overnighters as we wait for more data to surface.    

     Another currency in massive print is the Argentine Peso, “the nation has been “printing money for the people” MMT-style for many years…” Thursday’s trade under this currency proved Gold at 53,450.76 Pesos. As of this morning the price rise shows a gain of 402.75 Pesos at 53,583.66. Silver was priced at 625.312 (Thursday morning) and has gained 5.226 proving the price at 630.538 Argentinian Pesos. Please understand that the deciders of this currency have yet to slice off 4 zeros from the decimal like they did in Venezuela. Also of note is the contractual size established in the international commodities industry; Gold contracts (and options control) 100 troy ounces and 5,000 ounces in Silver. Do the math yourself, you won’t believe it, unless you see it like we did in 2011.

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Today We Have “Chock A Block Politics”
April 18, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,  

     Gold is giving us a slight shine this morning with the trade at $1,278.90, up $2.10, closer to the high at $1,279.70 then the low at $1,273. Silver is barely following with its trade at $14.955 (May), up 1.6 cents with the high at $14.99 and low at $14.895. This may be the last day the Open Interest in this month’s contract leads the trade because July’s OI is going to beat out May’s today. The US Dollar has turned sharply higher at about 3 am cst with the trade now at 96.94, up 28.2 points with the high so far at 97.005 with the low at 96.62. All of this was done way before 5 am pst and the Comex open. Gold’s value under a currency printed in order to stay a government now has a Bolivar price at 12,773.01 finally showing a gain in value of 7.99. Silver under the same issuance is now pegged at 149.363, a complete reversal from yesterday’s crushing blow proving a humongous gain of 8.19 Bolivar overnight as we hope this here, is a new signal to glean an advantage.  

     April Silver’s Delivery Demands still shows a count of 1 and with a Volume of 1 already showing up on the board so far this morning proving a purchase was made at $14.89. There is also a demand count of 37 under the Bid showing a buyer wants Silver at $14.935, a price that is 4.5 cents above the trade that made the Volume go to 1 and with no takers so far. Whoever this guy is, his order has been posted all week long (in a day order format) but it seems the sellers are reluctant to fill the trade. Silver’s Overall Open Interest fell quite a bit yesterday with the count now totaling 220,088 Obligations showing a drop of 4,762 overnighters leaving the trade before this weekend’s global holiday.

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