Posts Categorized: In The News

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

– Third-Quarter 2017 Real Per Capita Take-Home Pay (Disposable Personal Income) Contracted at an Annualized Pace of 0.29% (-0.29%) versus Second-Quarter 2017
– That Was on Top of Downside Revisions to Second-Quarter Real Disposable Income, Which Reflected More-Substantive Information from Bureau of Labor Statistics Surveying
– Such Supports Neither a Booming Economy Nor a Soaring Consumer Outlook
– Consumer Surveying, Driven by a Headline Faux-Economic Boom in the Press (Hurricane-Bloated Activity), Remained Strongest Since Collapsing into the 2001 Recession
– Second Estimate of Real Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.30% (Previously 2.99%), versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter 2017
– Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) at 3.47%, versus Second-Quarter at 2.77%; Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) at 2.53%, versus a Downwardly-Revised Second-Quarter of 2.28% (Previously 2.89%)
– Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion
– October 2017 Advance Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Suggesting a Potential Early Hit to Fourth-Quarter GDP
– With Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Still Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs, Respectively by 50.7% (-50.7%) and 24.6% (-24.6%), Six-Month Smoothed Home Sales Continued in Low-Level, Faltering Stagnation
“No. 923: Revised Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), October Freight Index, New-Home Sales ”

Bill Holter’s Commentary

A purge in China too!

Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Purge Has Taken Down so Many Top Officials, There Are Jobs Left Empty
November 28, 2017

With Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign charging full steam ahead, many Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have been ousted, leaving key positions unfilled.

Since taking power in 2012, Xi has taken down many officials belonging to an opposition faction loyal to former CCP leader Jiang Zemin.

Following the pivotal Party conclave, the 19th National Congress, that concluded in October, Xi has installed his confidants into top leadership positions, while continuing to take down provincial and city-level high officials across the country via corruption investigations.

An analysis of official announcements reveals that 12 provincial-level positions have yet to be filled after previous officials were ousted from their post.

According to Party convention, aside from Xinjiang and Tibet, the other 29 provinces, which include four municipalities that are centrally governed—Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Shanghai—should have two deputy secretaries. Yet currently Tianjin and Fujian Province are each missing two deputies, while Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Shaanxi provinces are missing one.

Meanwhile, Tianjin, Fujian, and Shaanxi are also missing a city or provincial mayor.

Tianjin is considered a hotbed for Jiang faction officials. Political observers note that the empty positions there could suggest that either current Tianjin party boss and Jiang faction official Li Hongzhong is making it difficult for Xi to appoint his allies, or that Party officials are not keen on working with Jiang faction officials there.


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

I missed this one and Jim pointed it out to me. I had heard the story but not the “4,500 km above the Earth part”. If this is actually true, they do have the ability to launch and hit any place on the planet if the guidance system works. As Jim pointed out to me, the only thing missing are heat shields to protect the nukes during re entry? In my opinion, we the United States ignore this at our own peril!

North Korea missile launch: regime says new rocket can hit anywhere in US

November 29, 2017

North Korea has claimed that the rocket it test-fired on Wednesday morning is a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that can strike anywhere on the US mainland, as it declared itself a “complete” nuclear state.

In a special announcement broadcast on state TV, the regime said it had successfully tested a Hwasong-15, which appears to be an advanced version of ICBMs it launched in July.

A government statement, read out by the TV presenter Ri Chun-hee, quoted the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, as saying: “Now we have finally realised the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building a rocket power.”

Kim oversaw the launch in Pyongsong, about 18 miles north of the capital, Pyongyang. The official KCNA news agency said the missile was more sophisticated than any previously tested and was capable of carrying a “super-large heavy (nuclear) warhead”.

The regime’s claims have not been independently verified, but experts had been expecting North Korea to demonstrate that it now has all of the US in range – a development that significantly strengthens its position in any negotiations with Washington over its nuclear weapons programme.

Pyongyang has not, however, proved it has the capability to marry a miniaturised nuclear warhead with a long-range missile and send it at a trajectory that would put US cities in its sights.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Now here is a huge game changer and one where the West’s power over oil and gas is diminished.

China to deploy ‘Night Tigers’ to Syria in support of Assad’s forces
November 29, 2017

China will deploy troops to Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, as the East Asian country becomes increasingly concerned about the presence of Islamic militants in its far western region of Xinjiang.

The Chinese Ministry of Defence intends to send two units known as the “Tigers of Siberia” and the “Night Tigers” from the Special Operations Forces to aid regime troops against militant factions, New Khaleej reported, citing informed sources.

Some 5,000 ethnic Uighurs from China’s violence-prone region of Xinjiang are fighting in various militant groups in Syria, the Syrian ambassador to China said earlier this year.

Chinese state media has blamed violence in Xinjiang on extremists who were trained in Syria.

Hundreds of people have been killed in Xinjiang in the past few years, most in unrest between Uighurs and ethnic majority Han Chinese. The government blames the unrest on Islamist militants who want a separate state called East Turkestan.

Uighurs themselves complain of discrimination and say their traditional and religious way of life is being eroded by Chinese domestic policy and an influx of settlers from elsewhere in China.

China has said that “East Turkestan terrorist forces” had posed several threats against the government.

Assad has previously praised “crucial cooperation” between Syria and Chinese intelligence against Uighur militants, adding ties with China were “on the rise”.

Chinese military personnel have been on the ground in Syria since at least last year, training Syrian forces to use China-made weapons.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Wait a minute, do they have two separate mouths? Didn’t they just say a couple days ago the markets would be good for another three years? So they expect markets to move higher from the highest valuations in over 100 years …while growth slows? I have news for them, with yield curves flattening/inverting and debt ratios/levels at all time highs…good luck with that!

Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900
November 29, 2017

A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“It has seldom been the case that equities, bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time, only in the Roaring ’20s and the Golden ’50s,” Goldman Sachs International strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissman wrote in a note this week. “All good things must come to an end” and “there will be a bear market, eventually” they said.

As central banks cut back their quantitative easing, pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds, returns are “likely to be lower across assets” over the medium term, the analysts said. A second, less likely, scenario would involve “fast pain.” Stock and bond valuations would both get hit, with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock, or a growth shock alongside an inflation pick-up.



Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The definition of “stability”?

114 Italian Banks (Roughly 23%) Have NPLs Exceeding Tangible Capital
November 26, 2017


114 Italian banks have non-performing loans that exceed tangible capital. Ratios above 100% are signs of severe stress.

The headline image is from the from The article is dated March 25, 2017. The translated headline reads “Here are the 114 Italian banks at risk for suffering”

The image shows 24 banks where non-performing loans total 200% or more of tangible assets.

The image title “Texas Highest Rate” refers to a measure of banking stress called the “Texas Ratio”.

The Texas Ratio was developed by Gerard Cassidy and others at RBC Capital Markets. It is calculated by dividing the value of the lender’s non-performing assets (NPL + Real Estate Owned) by the sum of its tangible common equity capital and loan loss reserves.

In analyzing Texas banks during the early 1980s recession, Cassidy noted that banks tended to fail when this ratio reached 1:1, or 100%. He noted a similar pattern among New England banks during the recession of the early 1990s.


EFP’s get transferred over for a London Forward.

I was speaking to James Turk who told me that almost all of these EFP’s remain in London seeking whatever physical they can get a hold of.  He informs me that gold and silver are in deep backwardation in price in London and further to that, it is taking 6 weeks- 10 weeks for actual delivery.  He suggests that it is most likely that further payments are issued due to the length of time it takes to deliver the physical gold to our longs.

It would be quite easy for a long to sell in London and buy back a new comex gold position in NY and start the same operation again.  However this is not happening:.
The average EFP on a daily basis or gold is around 8,000 contracts or so PER DAY. So in one month. one would see 180,000 EFP contracts issued .  Over two years,  the transferred comex OI volume would be enormous.  If these were to come back to NY then the comex OI would be enormous and this is not happening
Thus almost all of these gold EFP longs are staying in London trying to obtain whatever gold/silver is available.
However, while this is going on, the bankers continue to supply massive amounts of paper gold/silver knowing with 100% certainty that there is not any physical to supply.
Obviously we have a huge conflict here coupled with zero transparency.  Why are the bankers knowingly supplying huge amounts of paper shorts, influencing the price southbound, knowing full well that they could never deliver upon longs standing.
Why has the CFTC allowed JPMorgan the right to acquire over 600 million oz of physical silver, knowing full well that they are the biggest short at the comex.
The CFTC has stated that the comex is a price discovery mechanism.  Do you still believe that you are reporting on transparency in the gold/silver market?
Gold and silver have higher prices in Shanghai vs NY at the fixes.  With the fact that bullion bank payments pay our comex longs a fiat bonus, one can suggest that the price of spot comex gold/silver is higher that future prices.  The offering of extra cash in London to delay delivery is also indicative of further backwardation and thus scarcity of metal.
I would like the CFTC to address this major issue:
if EFP’s are being used for emergency use (and that emergency use has morphed in a daily occurrence) how do they explain the massive increase in short supply by the bankers knowing full well that they have no metal to supply longs.  It is also obvious that the traditional mantra of the banker hedging is out the window
can you please address this for us
Harvey Organ BScPhm MBA


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This case is very important on so many levels and yes, this is certainly not what America was EVER supposed to be!

Ryan Bundy’s Opening Statement Is Something Every Red-Blooded American Should Hear

November 24, 2017

Sometimes, in the process of covering so many things and in the attempt to provide as much information and commentary as possible, we simply are not able to provide all that we wish to do so to the public.

However, that does not mean other stories and commentary are not important. In fact, many things coming out of alternatives media today are vitally important for those coming off the government-controlled media.

One of those items that didn’t hit the mainstream media, and sadly didn’t hit much of the alternative media, was the opening statement of Cliven Bundy’s son, Ryan, as the trial of the century began nearly two weeks ago.

In light of that, I’ve been meaning to post his opening statement because it is certainly on that Americans should familiarize themselves with and quite possibly, should a fair history book be written, may go down in a Patrick Henry-esque fashion.

So, without further ado, here’s Ryan Bundy’s opening statement (H/T Gary Hunt)that was delivered to the jury in the Bundy Ranch trials on November 15, 2017. Read and remember.

Thanks to the jurors for being here. I told you a little about myself at voir dire, but I’d like to introduce myself a little more, and tell you about my heritage and how that affects my case. (Projects a picture of his family – AND leaves it up throughout his statement!) [Note: the picture shown above.]

This is my ID! Not my driver’s license. This is who I am, a man with a family and I’ll do whatever it takes to provide for them. I want you to picture in your minds…you’re out on the land… I’ll take you to our ranch, you can see all the beauty of the land, the fresh air, sunsets and sunrises, the brush, you’re on a horse in front of the cattle – place yourself there – feel the freedom – out of the congestion of the cars – that’s how I was raised, playing in the river, we were called river-rats and that is where my life began and I hope ends.


Congress Returns To Nightmare December
November 27, 2017

Lawmakers are bracing for chaos in December as they plunge into several high-stakes legislative fights.

Both chambers are expected to be in session for roughly 15 days before leaving town until January, but the looming battles could push their exit date closer to Christmas.

Republicans want to get a key agenda item, tax reform, to President Trump’s desk by the end of the year.

That would be a daunting task even under the best of circumstances — but Republicans are also facing a Dec. 8 deadline to avoid a government shutdown, with fights over immigration and health care also crowding the agenda.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the deadlines could be just what Republicans need to get things accomplished.

“I think that’s maybe the only way we can get it done,” he told The Hill. “We’re the ultimate do-your-homework-at-the-last-minute crowd.”

Here’s what to watch for as Congress prepares for an end-of-the-year sprint.

Tax reform

Senate Republicans are rushing to pass their tax plan this week after it was voted out of the Senate Finance Committee along party lines.

They have a narrow path to getting the bill through the Senate. With 52 seats, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) can only afford to lose two GOP senators, if every member of the Democratic caucus votes no; Vice President Pence could break a tie.


Clock Ticking Down On NSA Surveillance Powers
November 26, 2017

Congress will return from its weeklong Thanksgiving break facing a rapidly-shrinking timeline to reform and renew an authority the intelligence community says is critical to identifying and disrupting terrorist plots.

The key piece of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, known as Section 702 and passed in 2008, is set to expire at the end of the year. It allows the National Security Agency (NSA) to collect the texts and emails of foreigners abroad without an individualized warrant — even when the subjects communicate with Americans in the U.S.

Throughout the fall, privacy advocates on Capitol Hill pushed for changes to the law to curtail what critics say is a violation of Americans’ Fourth Amendment protections — a push that seemed to gain some momentum despite the objections of the Trump administration.

House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) has long said that a clean reauthorization of Section 702 would not pass the House, where the powerful Freedom Caucus has banded together with privacy-minded Democrats to advocate for tighter restrictions on how government investigators can use data gathered under the program.

But with just a few weeks left until the Dec. 31 deadline, even those tracking the debate closely aren’t sure what reforms, if any, will see the floor in either chamber.

The House Judiciary Committee earlier this month voted to pass its package to extend the law with some modest reforms — tweaks that the Freedom Caucus, long seen as the most likely roadblock to a clean reauthorization, says don’t go nearly far enough.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

The problem is all the “fat” was eaten long ago. Now capital must be rationed as any household must.

For Trump, GOP Tax Bill Could Have Big Downside
November 26, 2017

The GOP tax plan that is speeding through Congress could deliver a much-needed win for the White House, but it could also kill one of Trump’s other top priorities: legislation to rebuild U.S. infrastructure.

Not only would the tax overhaul use up one of the potential funding options for repairing infrastructure, it would also eliminate a financing tool that states have used to back a wide range of infrastructure projects.

That could spell doom for Trump’s infrastructure overhaul, which was always going to be a tough sell for fiscal conservatives on Capitol Hill.

“Preemptively removing [private activity bonds] as a financing tool for infrastructure projects would undermine Congress’s stated goal of leveraging a $1 trillion investment in our nation’s infrastructure,” said Richard A. White, acting president and CEO of the American Public Transportation Association.

“Instead, this provision would have a chilling effect on private sector investments in infrastructure projects.”

The tax package that passed the House last week would eliminate the deduction on tax-exempt private activity bonds, which are used by public-private partnerships to help build roads, highways, housing, hospitals, airports and other critical projects.

Eliminating the program would save nearly $40 billion over a decade, according to a GOP summary sheet.

But transportation advocates worry ending the deduction will directly undercut Trump’s effort to revitalize the nation’s infrastructure.


Spain’s Third Biggest Bank Just Made it Harder to Get Cash
November 25, 2017

Spain’s third biggest lender, CaixaBank, has just launched a pilot project in Madrid aimed at limiting cash services in their branches to less than three hours a day, from 8:15 am to 11 am. After that point, all cash operations, including the settlement of bills and cash withdrawals and deposits, must be conducted through an ATM.

Caixabank is not the first Spanish bank to try out such a scheme, but it is the biggest. Spain’s fourth largest lender, part state-owned Bankia, has removed all cash services from select branches (including my local branch), forcing customers to withdraw or deposit cash at the ATM or travel further afield to another branch that still offers cash services.

It’s part of a broad trend. Bank branches are increasingly becoming so-called “customer advisory points,” where the primary role of branch staff is to sell customers a myriad financial products, many of them no doubt risky.

Those same customers are forced to perform many of the more rudimentary bank operations (cash withdrawals and deposits, transfers, payment of bills…) themselves, either at the ATM or online. It’s a great way of getting your customers to do your work for you while also cutting back on staffing costs.

Spain’s banking industry has already witnessed a savage cull of branch and office staff since the financial crisis began as many banks collapsed while those left standing closed many of their branches. In 2016 the total number of workers in the sector was 189,280 — 81,605 fewer than in 2009. What’s more, it’s a trend that shows little sign of ending, especially with most other banks almost certain to follow CaixaBank and Bankia’s lead in paring back their cash services.


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

So is anything we are told true?

MIT Admits: Electric Cars Are NOT Green, Pollute MORE Than Petrol Cars
November 23, 2017

Electric cars are considered pollution-free as they can help keep our cities and our planet clean. However, a recent study published by the Trancik Lab of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has revealed that electric cars are NOT as green as you think and are worse polluters than petrol and diesel cars.

The study claims that an electric Tesla Model S P100D saloon produces more carbon dioxide (at 226g per kilometer) than a petrol-driven Mitsubishi Mirage (at 192g per kilometer).

Though the MIT study has shocked green energy advocates, it is not the first time a study is raising concerns about pollution caused by electric cars. In 2016, a groundbreaking study conducted by Norway’s University of Science and Technology concluded that ‘larger electric vehicles can have higher life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than smaller conventional vehicles.’

Independent energy experts have also debunked the ‘electric cars are green’ myth saying majority of the energy that charges the batteries of electric cars comes from the national grid.


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The Case For $10,000 Gold | John Rubino
November 24, 2017

On this weeks SD Metals & Markets, John Rubino reveals why gold is extremely undervalued.

John Rubino of Dollar Collapse interviewed by Silver Doctors in this week’s SD Metals & Markets

Rubino thinks the next few years will be great for gold and silver.

Compared to how much paper money has been printed by the central banks, gold should be at $10,000/oz.

He also tells Silver Doctors the bond yield curve is signaling a recession is ahead.

Stay tuned to hear the startling actions Fed officials are suggesting to counteracting the next economic downturn.

All that and more in this time sensitive interview:


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A heartwarming story for Thanksgiving!

A Homeless Man Spent His Last $20 To Keep Her Safe. She’s Raised $34,000 To Repay Him
November 22, 2017


Kate McClure didn’t expect to run out of gas on her drive to Philadelphia last month.

And she definitely didn’t expect that her misfortune would give her the opportunity to change someone else’s life.

Pulled over on the side of I-95, McClure, 27, was approached by a homeless man named Johnny. She was apprehensive at first, but Johnny told her to get back into her car and to lock the doors while he walked to get her help. He went to a nearby gas station, used his last $20 fill a can and brought it back to fill up her car.

Grateful, but without a dollar to repay him, McClure promised she would come back with something.

In the weeks since, she’s returned to the spot along I-95 where Johnny stays with cash, snacks and Wawa gift cards. Each time she’s stopped by with her boyfriend, Mark D’Amico, they’ve learned a bit more about Johnny’s story, and become humbled by his gratitude.

Eventually, the Florence Township couple knew they had to do something more.

“I would say, ‘I keep thinking about that guy,’” D’Amico said. And McClure was thinking about Johnny, too.

So they launched a GoFundMe campaign, putting an ambitious $10,000 goal and hoping to rein in a few hundred dollars to book Johnny a motel for a few nights where he could clean up, and start to get back on his feet.

As of Wednesday, November 22, 2017, the campaign has garnered more than $34,000 in donations, and continues to grow.

“It just blew up,” McClure said, noting that donors have come forward with $5, $10 or even several hundred after she’s shared the GoFundMe to various Facebook groups.


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Bill Holter’s Commentary

WOW! Maybe I wasn’t so irresponsible putting up the post regarding the “coincidence” of both Hillary and John McCain having boots on at the same time?  Are the pictures photo shopped? I would guess we will find out shortly. Please keep in mind my last article regarding “confidence”…and why we post such “conspiratorial stuff”. If true, this would be a pretty deep depth charge to “confidence”!

John McCain’s Walking Boot Mysteriously Swaps Sides Weeks After Treatment For Torn Achilles Tendon
November 22, 2017

81 year old John McCain (R-AZ) has had a string of unfortuate heath issues this year. In mid-july, the Arizona Senator underwent brain surgery for aggressive cancer – returning to Washington D.C. five days later to cast his vote against the healthcare bill.

Then, at the beginning of November McCain was treated for a tear to his achilles tendon at Walter Reed medical center – emerging on November 6th in a walking boot on his right leg:

Somehow, some way, it appears McCain’s tear has switched sides two weeks later the day after his daughter Meghan’s wedding…


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Battle stations!

Major Warning Signal That Launched Two Global Stock Market Crashes Just Triggered For The Third Time
November 22, 2017

November 22 (King World News) – I noticed this poll from Gallup last night that was posted Monday and while it’s a snapshot of great comfort with the current state of the US economy on the part of the people surveyed, we can’t help but worry about what happened after the prior two times it reached current levels:


King World News note: This danger signal flashed in 1999 and 2007, right before two global stock market crashes…

This is the third time it has appeared, already breaking the low from 2007 and closing in on the record low set in 1999. It is yet another indicator that the party which continues to take place in many global stock markets will end in tears.