Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.


The Dems Need This Fiction To Camouflage Fraud
October 29, 2018

The only thing more certain than death and taxes is that, every election cycle, the Democrats will accuse Republicans of “voter suppression.” They inevitably insist that requiring individuals to possess photo identification in order to cast a ballot is a sinister right-wing conspiracy to prevent minorities from exercising the franchise. For black conservatives like Candace Owens, this claim is incredibly patronizing. It implies that, as she recently put it, “Black people are too stupid to figure out how to get identification.” She is right, of course, but the Democrats dislike voter ID laws for another reason: They depend on fraud to remain viable.

The obvious purpose of asking voters to prove who they are and where they live is to prevent fraud. The Democrats claim that voter ID laws are unnecessary because fraud is uncommon. This is nonsense. As Thomas Sowell once put it, “One of the biggest voter frauds may be the idea… that there is no voter fraud.” Yet the Democrats make this claim every election cycle while filing sham lawsuits alleging voter suppression, which is quite rare. Last week, for example, they convinced a New Hampshire judge to halt enforcement of Senate Bill 3 (SB3), a law requiring voters to provide proof of residency. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports:

The lawsuit to block the law [SB3] from taking effect was filed last year by the New Hampshire Democratic Party, the League of Women Voters of New Hampshire and individual voters who claim the new registration requirements are onerous and an unnecessary obstacle to exercising their constitutional rights.… The DOJ simultaneously filed an emergency motion with the state Supreme Court.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

“WHY” would they do this?

Fed To Ease Liquidity Requirements For Regional Banks As Brainard Warns Of More Bailouts
October 31, 2018

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve is set to vote on proposals that would further ease capital requirements for banks with assets of $700 billion or lower, expanding on Trump’s promise to deregulate Wall Street.

The biggest benefits will come to banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets – or the bulk of regional banks – who would no longer have to adhere to liquidity coverage ratio and proposed net stable funding ratio, according to prepared remarks by Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles. Firms between $100 billion and $250 billion would also face stress tests every two years, instead of annually

“A reduction of this magnitude is appropriate because most U.S. banking firms in this group are not engaged in complex activities and have more stable funding than systemic banks given their relatively traditional business models,” said Quarles.

At the same time, Non-Wall Street banks that have more than $250 billion of assets would move to a “calibrated” liquidity coverage ratio that is in the range of 70% to 85% of full LCR, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, large banks will generally see little benefits from today’s deregulation: Quarles said that large bank holding companies now have about $1.3 trillion of capital, and the Fed proposals would reduce that by only $8 billion.

Curiously, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said she plans to vote against proposals, arguing they would raise “the risk that American taxpayers again will be on the hook” to bail out banks.

“I see little benefit to the institutions or the system from the proposed reduction in core resilience that could justify the increased risk to financial stability and the taxpayer,” Brainard says in prepared remarks.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

As we have said many times, watch credit!

GE Locked Out Of Commercial Paper Market After Moody’s Downgrade
October 31, 2018

Yesterday we asked if, as a result of its ongoing operational troubles and recent downgrade by S&P, GE was facing another Commercial Paper “moment”, with a Moody’s downgrade now imminent. The reason is that GE has traditionally been one of the biggest issuers of Commercial Paper to fund daily operations, and used to be one of the biggest issuers of the debt: veteran readers may recall that during the financial crisis, GE’s loss of access to the frozen CP/Money Market nearly resulting in a terminal liquidity crisis at the industrial conglomerate.

Since then, GE’s reliance on commercial paper was material, and in the second quarter, GE had on average around $16.6 billion of the debt outstanding – a sizable portion of its total $116 billion in debt.

A warning shot came in early October, when S&P cut GE’s short-term grade to A-2, a level below the top tier. That’s a rating of commercial paper that some classic prime money market funds are reluctant to buy. In fact, prime money market funds historically had to have at least 97% of their securities rated at least A-1 from S&P and P-1 from Moody’s, but those rules were loosened amid this decade’s money market reform. Even so, as Bloomberg noted, many funds would be far less willing to buy securities with a split rating, i.e., where at least one rating is below A-1 or P-1.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Bill knows that three Caravans are on their way, and with the real ramifications of this along the Southern Border of an invasion. If Texas is overrun there will be a war.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

– Real Third-Quarter 2018 GDP Gained 3.50%, Against 4.16% in Second-Quarter, Yet, Where 70.7% of the Increase in the Level of Quarterly GDP Was in Inventories, Annualized Real Final Sales Growth Plunged to 1.43% from 5.33%
– Third-Quarter Real GDP Stood 18.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, but Held Shy by 4.9% (-4.9%) of Recovering that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation
– Advance Estimate of Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Indicated Worst-Ever Quarterly Merchandise Trade Shortfall
– Third-Quarter GDP Confirmed Massive Quarterly Trade-Balance Deterioration, Worst-Ever Quarterly Shortfall in Net Exports of Goods and Services
– September New-Home Sales Collapsed to a 21-Month Low on Top of Downside Revisions; Second-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction and Sharply Deepening Six-Month Downtrend Confirmed Plunging Headlines Seen in Other Residential Construction and Sales Series; Activity Constrained by FOMC Policies Pummeling Consumer Liquidity
– Third-Quarter GDP Also Showed Third-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction in Private Residential Investment
– Federal Reserve Tightening Has Hit Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Hard, Continuing to Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery
– September Real New Orders for Durable Goods Growth of 0.6% Was a Contraction of 0.8% (-0.8%), Ex-Defense, With Gains Increasingly Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer

“No. 976: Third-Quarter 2018 GDP, September 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods, New-Home Sales “

Posted by & filed under In The News.

4Chan Trolls Mock ‘False Flag’ Bomb Scare By Making Parody ‘Bombs’ Of Their Own
October 24, 2018

You’ll no doubt be shocked to learn the “weaponized autists” at 4Chan are not buying the latest bomb scare targeting Democrats less than two weeks out from the midterms.

On Wednesday, CNN’s Jim Acosta shared images of one of the suspect devices he says was sent to CNN.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

This could get VERY INTERESTING in a hurry! Might it have effect on the share price? Stay tuned…

The FBI Is Reviewing Tesla’s Model 3 Production Numbers As Part Of A Criminal Probe: WSJ
October 26, 2018

The FBI is reviewing Tesla’s Model 3 production numbers as part of an ongoing criminal probe into whether the company misled investors, according to a Wall Street Journal report published Friday.

Federal agents are reviewing Tesla’s stated Model 3 numbers dating back to early 2017, the Journal reports, citing unnamed sources.

Tesla had previously said it provided documents to the Department of Justice regarding CEO Elon Musk’s controversial take-private tweet — a blunder that ultimately cost Tesla and Musk a combined $40 million in fraud settlement fees.

Now Tesla says it also provided information to the Department of Justice regarding Musk’s public statements regarding production numbers of its Model 3 sedan.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

The margin call has been issued!

Global Bloodbath: World Stocks Puke Over $8 Trillion As US Markets Collapse
October 26, 2018

Aaaaaand, it’s gone!

Global capital markets are down five weeks in a row, losing just under $9 trillion – the biggest, fastest drop since Lehman… (around $8.2 trillion from global equity markets).


Bill Holter’s Commentary

We have warned about this many times to nothing but laughter.  We assure you it is no laughing matter!

Breakingviews – China Aims Rare Earth Bazooka At Trade Rivals
October 24, 2018

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – Beijing is limiting its output of rare earths, according to Adamas Intelligence. That tackles lingering oversupply of the tough-to-mine minerals, but could easily also starve foreign buyers of key ingredients like cerium and neodymium, used in catalysts, electronics and weapons – a drastic trade war escalation that would punish profit margins. An overdue rush to develop new supply outside China, though, will come too late.

The dominance of the rare earths’ market by the People’s Republic encapsulates a lot of what trading partners worry about. The elements, common throughout the earth’s crust but tricky to extract, were perceived as strategic two decades ago by leader Deng Xiaoping, who compared it to the Middle East’s oil bounty. He instructed Chinese state-owned companies to dig deep, and they did – assisted by a horde of smaller private miners that drilled in haste, polluted liberally, and drove prices so low it became uneconomical for many foreign rivals to stay in business.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary


The Student Loan Debt Crisis Is About to Get Worse
October 17, 2018

While Wall Street and U.S. President Donald Trump tout news of a booming stock market and low unemployment, college students may be quick to roll their eyes. The improved economy has yet to mean higher wages for graduates already struggling to pay down massive debt, let alone ease the minds of students staring down the barrel of six-digit loan obligations yet to come.

Federal student loans are the only consumer debt segment with continuous cumulative growth since the Great Recession. As the costs of tuition and borrowing continue to rise, the result is a widening default crisis that even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell labeled as a cause for concern.

Student loans have seen almost 157 percent in cumulative growth over the last 11 years. By comparison, auto loan debt has grown 52 percent while mortgage and credit-card debt actually fell by about 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg Global Data analysis of federal and private loans. All told, there’s a whopping $1.5 trillion in student loans out there (through the second quarter of 2018), marking the second-largest consumer debt segment in the country after mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve. And the number keeps growing.


Chris Farrell: Human Traffickers and Criminal Elements in Caravan
October 26, 2018


Tom Fitton: Robert Mueller is Being Protected by Rod Rosenstein over Trump/Russia Probe
October 26, 2018


Tom Fitton on No Spin News: Was Kavanaugh Accuser Manipulated by Her Lawyers?
October 26, 2018


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

China proposes strongly to exchange the African debt owed, now mainly overdue, to be repaid in minerals, not in the dollars for the full dollar amount of the debt itself including interest.

China already has large Strategic Materials and Precious Metals inventories. High tech will come to a halt without the rare earth and other strategic materials, of which Africa is the major source outside of China. This means Cupertino in California will have a major increase in the unemployed geeks.

The Chinese are known to be smart. This would suggest we are very close to lows in mineral prices in general.

It Was A Total Hoax! Clocks Taped to ‘Pipe Bombs’ Do Not Have Alarm Function! Were Just for Show!
October 24, 2018

Several bombs were sent out to Democrat leaders Wednesday – none of which detonated.

The Secret Service announced that suspicious packages were sent to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

George Soros, former AG Eric Holder, Rep. Maxine Waters were also sent mail bombs.

The return address name on the suspicious packages sent to Clinton, Obama, Holder and Maxine Waters belonged to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

But now it appears this was all a hoax!

The clocks taped to the “pipe bombs” do not have an alarm function.

Neon Revolt reported:

    Turns out, #Anons were able to locate the actual make and model of the clock taped to one of the bombs.


    It doesn’t even have an alarm function.

    In other words, it can’t count down to anything. It’s literally just to make a “scary-looking” bomb prop.

The clocks do not have an alarm function. It was a complete hoax.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Smart money flows…

Is The “Smart Money” Flow Index Signalling Recession? (It Signalled Bust and Financial Crisis)
October 21, 2018

The Smart Money Flow Index is a sentiment index attempting to measure “skittishness” in the markets.  Particularly at stock market opening in the US for the Dow.

We saw a collapse in the Smart Money Flow index in 1999 as the bubble exploded. Then we saw a slower decline starting in 2004 in front of the housing bubble burst and financial crisis.

Now we have a third collapse of the Smart Money Flow Index, likely related to economic uncertainties like trade wars, Brexit, Nancy Pelosi being House majority leader … again and the policy errors of Central Banks including our own Feral Federal Reserve.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is a fair amount of capital considering the Fed created $16 trillion in 2009…right?

The Nightmare Scenario: JPMorgan Warns Of $7.4 Trillion In ETF Selling During Next Downturn
October 24, 2018

When it comes to sleepless night involving the great unknowns locked in the Pandora’s box that was created by central bankers and which will be unleashed during next financial crisis, one nightmare is among the most recurring: what happens when the ETFs, which have been buying stocks for the past decade, begin to sell?

The answer, according to JPMorgan, would be nothing short of catastrophic.

According to a new report from JPM equity strategist, Eduardo Lecubarri, passive investing (i.e., ETFs and index funds) – which was not a big driver of equity returns in the last recession as it accounted for less than 30% of the AUM in actively managed funds back then, “should bring big selling pressure to large caps and US small and mid caps during the next downturn”, Lechubarri writes, as a result of the staggering increase in Passive AUM over the past decade which, as a % of active AUM, has nearly reached parity, and was around 83% as of 2018; Passive AUM is widely expected to surpass Active AUM over the next two years.

How much selling pressure? JPMorgan calculates that some $7.4 trillion in stocks would be subject to forced selling by passive funds during the next downturn.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

MarketWatch is mainstream right? They will say you were warned…!

Protections on risky loans are close to their worst-ever levels, says Moody’s
October 25, 2018

The covenant quality of North American leveraged loans is close to its worst-ever level as investors forfeit protections they may need if borrowers become distressed, Moody’s Investors Service said Thursday.

The credit-rating agency is the latest to sound the alarm on a market worth about $1.4 trillion that some say is concentrating debt in a way that resembles the subprime lending mania that sparked the 2008 financial crisis.

In July, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the rise of the leveraged loan market—loans issued by companies that don’t carry investment-grade ratings—is one of the few areas where investors are rightly concerned about excessive debt levels in the U.S. economy. Zandi said an implosion of over-levered firms could provide the spark to halt the second-longest economic expansion.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Paul Harvey, “And here is the rest of the story”…

Woman Who Confronted Jeff Flake in Elevator Leads Soros-Funded Activist Group
October 1, 2018

NEW YORK — Ana Maria Archila, one of the two women who confronted Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake in an elevator on Friday, helps lead a progressive organization funded by billionaire George Soros that heads an $80 million activist effort characterized as part of the anti-Trump “resistance” movement.

Archila and a second woman, 23-year-old Maria Gallagher, both said that they survived sexual assault when they challenged Flake as he entered an elevator prior to his Senate Judiciary Committee vote on whether to approve the nomination of President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.

Ultimately, Flake prompted a new FBI investigation into Kavanaugh as a condition for moving forward with the nomination. When asked whether the elevator confrontation contributed to his decision, Flake told the Atlantic that the moment had been “poignant” for him and “it certainly struck a chord.”


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Paul Volcker is the economic master of the universe. Listen carefully to him or suffer the consequences.

Paul Volcker, At 91, Sees ‘A Hell Of A Mess In Every Direction’
Oct. 23, 2018

Paul Volcker, wearing a blue sweatsuit and black dress socks, stretched out on a recliner in the den of his Upper East Side apartment on a Sunday afternoon. His lanky 6-foot-7 frame extended beyond the end of the chair’s leg rest. He added an ottoman to rest his feet.

“I’m not good,” said Mr. Volcker, 91, the former Federal Reserve chairman, who came to prominence after he used shockingly high interest rates to help end the runaway inflation of the late 1970s and early ’80s. Long one of finance’s wise men, he has been sick for several months.

But he would rather not talk about himself. Instead, Mr. Volcker wants to talk about the country, the economy and the government. And if he had seemed lethargic when I arrived, he turned lively in his laments: “We’re in a hell of a mess in every direction,” he said.



The White House  – Socialism Belongs In The Dustbin Of History
October 23, 2018

With the 200th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth, socialism is making a comeback in America. Democrats used to accuse Republicans of fear-mongering when they called out certain far-left policy ideas as “socialist.” Now, a growing number of Democrats are wearing the label as a badge of honor.

American socialists may imagine their proposals mirror those in Northern European countries such as Sweden and Norway. In reality, ideas along the lines of “Medicare for All” have more in common with economists’ traditional definition of socialism. The record of countries who have experimented with those types of command-and-control systems is devastating: Maoist China, the Soviet Union, and Venezuela among them.

Something to share: Socialism has a long legacy of failure across the world.

The sky-high taxes needed to fund “Medicare for All” alone, for example, would lead to a staggering $17,000 drop in household incomes after taxes and healthcare expenditures—a 19 percent decline. Without taxing American workers, funding this radical plan would require cuts to half of the Federal budget, wrecking Medicaid, Social Security, and traditional Medicare in the process.

Socialist policies have failed across the world wherever they are tested. They have no place in the United States of America.

Get the facts: What Democrats will take from you to push their socialist agenda.

Full report: The true costs of socialism


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

We knew this was coming…and were laughed at. The ramifications will be no laughing matter!

China Will ‘Compel’ Saudi Arabia To Trade Oil In Yuan — And That’s Going To Affect The US Dollar
October 11, 2017

China will “compel” Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan and, when this happens, the rest of the oil market will follow suit and abandon the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, a leading economist told CNBC on Monday.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics, said Beijing stands to become the most dominant global player in oil demand since China usurped the U.S. as the “biggest oil importer on the planet.”

Saudi Arabia has “to pay attention to this because even as much as one or two years from now, Chinese demand will dwarf U.S. demand,” Weinberg said.

“I believe that yuan pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis move to accept it — as the Chinese will compel them to do — then the rest of the oil market will move along with them.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

What a sad story on so many levels. Sad that anyone would “sell” themselves to protest and sad anyone would feel the need to “buy” protesters. I guess now we know why people show up to protest ridiculous causes? As they always say…follow the money!

California Company That Hires Protesters Is Accused Of Extortion
October 22, 2018

Paid protesters are real.

Crowds on Demand, a Beverly Hills company that’s an outspoken player in the business of hiring protesters, boasts on its website that it provides its clients with “protests, rallies, flash-mobs, paparazzi events and other inventive PR stunts. … We provide everything including the people, the materials and even the ideas.”

But according to a lawsuit filed by a Czech investor, Crowds on Demand also takes on more sordid assignments. Zdenek Bakala claims the company has been used to run an extortion campaign against him.

Bakala has accused Prague investment manager Pavol Krupa of hiring Crowds on Demand to pay protesters to march near his home in Hilton Head, S.C., and to call and send emails to the Aspen Institute and Dartmouth College, where Bakala is on advisory boards, urging them to cut ties to him. Bakala alleges that Krupa has threatened to continue and expand the campaign unless Bakala pays him $23 million.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams’s Commentary:

– FOMC Discussions of Raising Rates to Restrictive Levels Are After the Fact; Higher Rates Already Are Pummeling Near-Term Economic Prospects and Threatening Financial-System Stability in this Still-Experimental and Unresolved Post-2007/2008-Crisis Environment
– Oil-Price Driven Inflation Does Not Reflect an Overheating Economy; It Hurts Consumer Liquidity Just as Much as Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
– Faltering Consumer Liquidity Clobbered September 2018 Retail Sales and New Residential Construction
– Real Annual Retail Sales Growth Slowed in a Manner Most Commonly Seen at the Onset of a New Recession
– Building Permits, Housing Starts and Home Sales Just Entered What Could Be Considered a New Recession
– Third-Quarter Permits and Starts Fell in Consecutive Quarterly Contractions; Existing-Home Sales Declined in a Third Consecutive Quarterly Contraction; All Key Residential Series Are in Deepening Six-Month Downtrends
– Minimal Monthly Growth in September Consumer Goods Production Came Entirely from Downside Revisions to August Activity
– With No End in Sight, September 2018 Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.8% (-4.8%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
– The 129 Straight Months (43 Straight Quarters) of Economic Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Series
– Mixed Data Distortions/Disruptions from the Hurricanes of 2018 and 2017

“No. 975: September Retail Sales, Production, Freight, Housing Starts, Hurricanes and FOMC”