Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Credit card companies are soon going to be putting organized crime out of the loan shark business.

British Airways credit card is UK’s most expensive – after hiking interest charge to 46%
By Sri Carmichael
Last updated at 10:33 AM on 09th January 2009

American Expess has increased the cost of borrowing on one of its credit cards to 46 per cent — more than 30 times the Bank of England base rate.

The company now charges 46 per cent APR on the British Airways Premium Plus card, making it Britain’s most expensive credit card.

Consumer groups said the cost of borrowing on some credit cards had now lost all touch with the base rate.

A series of other cards also have APR over 35 per cent — despite interest rates now being at the lowest level since the Bank of England was set up in 1694.

Other cards include Virgin Money American Express at 37 per cent and Citi MasterCard at 41 per cent.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Turkey today, victim tomorrow?

Turkey’s army boss meets PM, president amid tension
Thu Jan 8, 2009 4:49pm GMT
By Ibon Villelabeitia

ANKARA, Jan 8 (Reuters) – Turkey’s military chief met Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul on Thursday as tensions rose in the EU candidate in the wake of a probe into an alleged plot to topple the Islamic-rooted government.

News of the meeting, a day after Turkish police detained about 40 people including three retired generals and active military officers for their suspected links to a right-wing group, added to financial woes in Turkey, which has been hit by the global financial crisis.

In a terse statement, the General Staff said the separate talks between armed forces commander General Ilker Basbug, Erdogan and Gul had centred on Wednesday’s detentions.

The military, which has unseated four governments in the last 50 years and views itself as the guarantor of Turkey’s secular order, denies any link to the group, known as Ergenekon.


Government in Turkey turns squeamish on defense ties with Israel

ANKARA — The increasingly Islamist leadership in Turkey has been placed on the defenseive by the parliament over extensive defense relations with Israel.

The government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has denied signing weapons deals with Israel during its invasion of the Gaza Strip, following condemnations of the Jewish state.

"There are no contracts or agreements in the time being with the Israeli side," Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said.

Gonul and other senior officials have been questioned by parliament over reports of an Israeli-Turkish defense project, Middle East Newsline reported. Under the reported $160 million deal, Israel would supply airborne reconnaissance systems to Turkey’s military.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Oh my goodness, no.

Treasury’s Oversight of Bailout Is Faulted
Published: January 9, 2009

In a report scheduled to be released Friday, the Congressional panel overseeing the $700 billion federal bailout has expressed growing concern about the effectiveness and execution of the rescue plan.

A draft of the report obtained by The New York Times criticized the Treasury Department for its “shifting explanations” about the underlying purpose of the bailout, its failure to answer many of the panel’s questions and its failure to require financial institutions receiving bailout money to fully account for how they are using the public’s money.

“The recent refusal of certain private financial institutions to provide any accounting of how they are using taxpayer money undermines public confidence,” the draft of the report said. “For Treasury to advance funds to these institutions without requiring more transparency further erodes the very confidence Treasury seeks to restore,” it said.

The 45-page report also asserted that the Treasury, in defiance of what the panel claimed was Congress’s clear intent when it passed the bailout bill in October, had taken “no steps to use any of this money to alleviate the foreclosure crisis.”

The Treasury declined to comment on the panel’s latest findings, with the bailout, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. “We can’t comment on a report that’s not been shared with us,” said Brookly McLaughlin, a spokeswoman for the Treasury.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

1. Israel makes a miscalculation.
2. Pakistan goes nuclear.
3. Turkey is a victim.

Turkish police detain dozens in coup plot probe
By SELCAN HACAOGLU – 1 day ago

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Police detained three retired generals and dozens of others in raids across Turkey on Wednesday, as they broadened their investigation into an alleged plot by secularists to overthrow Turkey’s Islamic-rooted government.

In was the 10th time in more than a year that police have targeted prominent secularists, who are accused of trying to destabilize Turkey with a string of attacks ahead of a coup that was never carried out.

Eighty-six people — including former army officers, journalists, a former university dean and a lawyer — already are on trial in the case. They have pleaded innocent and accuse Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government of attempting to silence secular critics.

The case is widely perceived as being part of a power struggle between Turkey’s secular establishment, including parts of the military, and the democratically elected and religiously conservative government. It also has raised concerns about political instability in Turkey, a country that has endured the ouster of four governments by the military since 1960.

Turkey’s state-run Anatolia news agency said nearly 40 people were detained during Wednesday’s police raids, and local media said the suspects were taken into custody at homes and offices in about a dozen cities or towns. Police confirmed the raids, but provided few details.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

Screw them once, but not twice!

You think the Chinese are going play nice, and hold all those Treasuries?

If you believe that you are academic ass.

That would be getting screwed twice.

They will not.

China may put new curbs on overseas investments
Wed Jan 7, 2009 11:44pm GMT

SHANGHAI, Jan 8 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Commerce may ask Chinese companies to apply for approval from the ministry if they want to invest $100 million or more overseas, it said in new draft rules published late on Wednesday, after a few major Chinese companies reported big book losses on investments abroad.

Companies may also need the ministry’s approval if they want to invest in countries which have no diplomatic relations with China, foreign infrastructure projects or highly risky countries or regions, it said in new rules that were published to seek public feedback until Jan. 20.

Hit by the global financial crisis some Chinese firms have seen the value of their overseas investments dwindle, with the country’s second biggest insurer, Ping An Insurance (Group) (2318.HK) (601318.SS), booking a loss of about 15.7 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) on its investment in Fortis NV (FOR.BR) (FOR.AS).

The country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corp (CIC), has also suffered heavy paper losses on its high-profile stakes in U.S. private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX.N) and bank Morgan Stanley (MS.N). ($1=6.834 Yuan) (Reporting by Lu Jianxin; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Who caused all this pain? The OTC derivative manufacturers, that is who.

Who will pay for all this pain? What blood suckers are out there counting their billions without any consideration for those that suffer?

Read the legal sites and you will see how they are spending their time and money – by hiring major names in defence attorneys.

They are hiring the best bankruptcy attorneys to devise methods of insulating their billions from those that lost it all to them. The Madoff situation is egregious, yet not different from the Hedge Fund managers raiding good, decent, and growing situations. It is no different on the chat sites that flow rancour to benefit their own positions.

How long will the public remain silent like lambs after the slaughter, wrapped and packed in cold silence? These people are criminals worse than Willie Sutton, worse than any mobster ever has been.

They are Ivy League snobs that will be dealt with, BECAUSE THAT IS NATURE’S WAY.

I feel the pain and suffering of the masses out there. I know exactly how bad it is going to get. I have been there, seen it, and have done my utmost to protect you.

These people do not care a fig about you. May they all burn in their personal hell. Their time is drawing close and they will not be the last man standing.

Pink slips pile higher amid deepening recession
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pink slips are piling higher as companies scramble to cut costs even deeper to survive the country’s economic and financial storms.

Just days into the new year, managed care provider Cigna Corp., aluminum producer Alcoa Inc., data-storage company EMC Corp. and computer products maker Logitech International were among those announcing layoffs to cope with a recession that has just entered its second year. The flurry of job cuts suggest the employment picture will remain grim this year.

A barometer on layoffs is expected to show Thursday that the number of newly laid off people signing up for state unemployment insurance last week rose to 540,000, up from 492,000 in the previous week, according to economists’ projections.

The number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits is projected to stay near 4.5 million, demonstrating the troubles the unemployed are having in finding new jobs.

Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days due to the crush of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Weimar is here, the Dollar is DEAD and Gold is alive.

Changing Gold’s weightings in the Commodity Index is a sick joke by sick amoral people in a totally criminal world.

Protect yourselves because nobody else will protect you.

I can direct you, educate you, desire your safety for you and believe in you, but it is you who must take action.

In six months nobody will be able to help you. You are your own responsibility.

God helps those that help and believe in themselves.

Obama calls for ‘dramatic action’


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I was there 10 years ago. There is only one excuse here – EGO.
He was going to show us.
He made himself clear.
He called it a non-producing asset.
He made it clear Gold would never produce.
He invited other central banks to follow his lead.
Listen to nothing else.
He made an ass of himself then and now.
He would be better advised to say, "I was wrong then and now."

Gordon Brown’s decision to sell half of the UK’s gold reserves ‘cost UK £5billion’
Gordon Brown’s decision to sell off part of the country’s gold reserves 10 years ago cost the public purse nearly £5billion, official figures show.
By Christopher Hope, Whitehall Editor
Last Updated: 7:47PM GMT 07 Jan 2009

The sale of more than half of the country’s gold reserves between 1999 and 2002 has proved to be deeply controversial.

Critics say that signalling such a large sale of bullion to gold traders helped to drive the precious metal to a 20-year low.

In 17 auctions, Mr Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer sanctioned the sale of 395 tonnes of gold.

Figures released by the Treasury show that the total proceeds from the sales was around $3.5billion. According to a Parliamentary answer, if the gold was sold last month, on December 15, it would have raised $10.5billion.

The difference – $7billion – would be worth £4.7billion if the proceeds were converted into pounds yesterday.

The figure, which moves with the value of gold, is far higher than previously thought. Grant Thornton calculated two years ago that the figure lost to the Exchequer was £2billion.

The news comes as the Government considers whether to sell major public assets, including a stake in the Royal Mail and the bookmaker the Tote, to raise funds for public finances.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

If you think Gordy did some dumb things before in his notable career this will be his Maximus Opus! The planet is headed towards Weimar.

Printing money is not the solution, Gordon
From The Times
January 9, 2009

Printing new money is a Zimbabwe-style policy which will simply lead to rising prices and stagflation

Sir, Gordon Brown is contemplating a Zimbabwe-style policy to get him out of his economic troubles — simply print more money (report, Jan 8). It will produce the same effect — stagflation.

When governments print money and spread it around, people do feel richer. So they do go out and spend, which is what the Government wants. But all this new spending just pushes prices up again, the new money buys less, and eventually people realise that they are actually no better off. By that time, businesses have to abandon all the investment they have made to capture the extra money, which just adds to our troubles.

Furthermore, the new money that government creates is not dropped uniformly across the economy. It goes into government industries and agencies, and is supposed to spread out from there. This can take a long time, and have many perverse effects on the way. And while the rest of us are cutting back, a spending boost for our bloated public sector is unlikely to be popular.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is just the stuff Weimar is made of.

US commercial paper outstanding grows with Fed help
Thu Jan 8, 2009 11:06am EST

NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. commercial paper market expanded the most since November in the latest week as the new year began, with much help from the Federal Reserve, Fed data showed on Thursday.

The U.S. central bank’s support of this cornerstone of short term funding for companies’ daily operations, is a key factor helping to buoy the market, analysts said. The commercial paper market has been sharply eroded by the global credit crisis since summer 2007.

"We don’t know to what extent the Federal Reserve played a role in the latest increase," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist with Miller, Tabak & Co. "But increasingly the private sector has been gobbling up commercial paper and the Fed has not been a sole buyer," Crescenzi added.

More information about how much the Fed contributed to last week’s rebound in commercial paper will come with the weekly data on bank borrowings from the Fed and the central bank’s support to financial institutions and securities markets which the Fed is due to release at 4:30 p.m. EST.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

When you do the same thing again anticipating different results what did Einstein say you were?

An Afghanistan ‘Surge’ Is a Losing Battle
So why is Mr. Obama betting on it?
By BRAHMA CHELLANEY | From today’s Wall Street Journal Asia

Vice President-elect Joe Biden’s visit to Afghanistan this month — even before President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration — will underscore the new administration’s priority to ending the war there. But their planned "surge first, then negotiate" strategy isn’t likely to work.

The Obama-Biden team wants to weaken the Taliban militarily then strike a political deal with the enemy from a position of strength. This echoes what the Bush administration did in Iraq, where it used a surge largely as a show of force to buy off Sunni tribal leaders and other local chieftains. Current Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen has already announced a near-doubling of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, to up to 63,000, by mid-2009.

Sending more forces into Afghanistan is a losing strategy. The Soviets couldn’t tame the country with more than 100,000 troops. With the backing of Robert Gates, whom Mr. Obama will keep on as defense secretary, Central Command Commander General David Petraeus is thus looking for ways to win over local commanders and warlords — the mainstay of the Taliban. General Petraeus wants to explore truces and alliances with local tribal chieftains and guerrilla leaders and set up lightly trained local militias in every provincial district.

This idea turns a blind eye to the danger that such militias could terrorize local populations. It is also naïve to expect an Iraq-style surge-and-bribe experiment to work in Afghanistan, whose mountainous terrain, myriad tribes, patterns of shifting tribal and ethnic loyalties, special status as the global hub of poppy trade and history of internecine conflict set it apart from any other Muslim country. In a land with a long tradition of humbling foreign armies, payoffs won’t buy peace.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

All that protected the Weimar citizens from their officialdom and the Papiermarc was Gold.

All that protects you against your elected officialdom and the Papierdollar is Gold.

Some day the Rentendollar will come. That you can be sure of.

Study history or become history.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Stop trading and start insuring. It is never too late, just less useful.

Play your index fund manipulations if you wish.

Play your gold bank quarterly earnings statement games if that makes you happy.

Listen to the paid anti gold for lobbyists as you seek to be more wrong than right.

Do all of the above if you will, but at the end of the day (which is coming sooner than you think), the dollar is dead and Gold is king. Weimar is coming and will not be escaped. Weimar can be a bad or even worse than the historical experience.

This is no longer about investment or trading, this is about survival financially, physically and spiritually.

Our retirees are in the cross hairs of time and misplaced trust. Your retirement programs from self directed to corporate will be assimilated into government run programs. The Democrats will cut benefits that you had feared the Republicans would. You are going to be culled from the gene poll in four years.

Harry Schultz lead a parade years ago into money in one country, citizenship in another and body in a third when people thought such a thing was bonkers.

Now it is gold in the mayo jar and Gold shares in non US Gold shares that are incorporated in one country with no operations in the country of incorporation. Only as many units of your venue currency in the country of domicile and other places to go. No EFTs, no agents between you and yours and Gold as INSURANCE, not trading!

In the end even the Chinese will lose their cool and face, because maintaining both is going to cost them simply too much.

The dollar is dead, past tense. It is over, worthless and more are realizing it by the day.

Stop trading and starting insuring.

China Losing Taste for Debt From the U.S.
Published: January 7, 2009

HONG KONG — China has bought more than $1 trillion of American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home, a move that could have painful effects for American borrowers.

The declining Chinese appetite for United States debt, apparent in a series of hints from Chinese policy makers over the last two weeks, with official statistics due for release in the next few days, comes at an inconvenient time.

On Tuesday, President-elect Barack Obama predicted the possibility of trillion-dollar deficits “for years to come,” even after an $800 billion stimulus package. Normally, China would be the most avid taker of the debt required to pay for those deficits, mainly short-term Treasuries, which are government i.o.u.’s.

In the last five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output buying foreign debt, mostly American. In September, it surpassed Japan as the largest overseas holder of Treasuries.

But now Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus — just as tax revenue is falling sharply as the Chinese economy slows. Regulators have ordered banks to lend more money to small and medium-size enterprises, many of which are struggling with lower exports, and to local governments to build new roads and other projects.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What is it? Who did it? Weimar is here, you just don’t know it yet!

Thank you, all of you cowboys and cowgirls in the OTC derivative bankers, brokers and hedge funds biz. You killed us all and yourselves as well.

That last part is still to come. Look over your shoulders, as in time your clients, those you devastated both client and otherwise, and the law looking for a scapegoat is going to get you all.

I understand prime-real estate in Brazil is in demand. Brazilian extradition attorneys are extremely busy.

Turks and Caicos passport mills are running full tilt.

Dr. Patangi has a long line of prior Greenwichites as clients. Puts on Greenwich CT are in a confirmed bull market.

There is a glut in for sale business jets at Westerchester Airport, New York Custom suit tailors are having hard times. Upscale street pharmacies are experiencing boom times in Westchester, NY.

Did you get any mail from Madoff?

NY unemployment claim systems overwhelmed

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — New York’s unemployment claims systems have crashed, overwhelmed by tens of thousands of jobless New Yorkers trying to call or log in at once ahead of this week’s filing deadline.

State labor department officials say the problem started Monday and caused the phone banks at the state’s toll-free claims center to shut down, followed by the online filing system. Leo Rosales, an agency spokesman, says as many as 10,000 people per hour were trying to log into the system.

Technicians are trying to bring the systems back online Tuesday afternoon but officials couldn’t say when they’ll be back up and available.

Rosales says the system failure shouldn’t delay newly unemployed workers from getting benefits because they have until the weekend to file claims.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

On the lighter side from Zimbabwe, compliments of the Darwin Awards via CIGA Marty Mitchell.

After stopping for drinks at an illegal bar, a Zimbabwean bus driver found that the 20 mental patients he was supposed to be transporting from Harare to Bulawayo had escaped.

Not wanting to admit his incompetence, the driver went to a nearby bus stop and offered everyone waiting there a free ride. He then delivered the passengers to the mental hospital, telling the staff that the patients were very excitable and prone to bizarre fantasies.

The deception wasn’t discovered for 3 days.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Everyone on the bandwagon while the bandwagon is still there to be had!

The Dollar is dead.

Philippines, Turkey Sell $2.5 Billion of Dollar Bonds (Update2)
By Clarissa Batino and Lester Pimentel

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Philippines and Turkey sold $2.5 billion of bonds in international markets, joining a push by developing nations to take advantage of a decline in borrowing costs to finance budget deficits.

The Philippines sold $1.5 billion of 10-year notes to yield 8.5 percent, or 6 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries, while Turkey sold $1 billion of eight-year bonds to yield 5.01 percentage points above Treasuries. Brazil and Colombia each sold $1 billion of bonds earlier this week.

The Philippines sale, which is triple the amount it issued all last year, will help the government arrange financing for a stimulus plan that aims to pull the Southeast Asian nation out of its worst economic slump in eight years.

“The Philippines has a first-mover advantage and good timing before the rest crowd international debt markets,” said Vishnu Varathan, a regional economist at Forecast Singapore Pte. “Chances are that credit will become tighter down the road given the huge fiscal expansion of governments including the U.S.”



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you feel Mother Nature might be unhappy about spaceship Earth carrying so many criminals supported by so many other criminals that are left free to run amuck?

Flu Found Resistant to Main Antiviral Drug
Published: January 8, 2009

Virtually all the flu in the United States this season is resistant to the leading antiviral drug Tamiflu, and scientists and health officials are trying to figure out why.

The problem is not yet a public health crisis because this is a below-averageflu season so far and the chief strain circulating is still susceptible to other drugs — but infectious disease specialists are nonetheless worried.

Last winter, about 11 percent of the throat swabs from patients with the most common type of flu that were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for genetic typing showed a Tamiflu-resistant strain. This season, 99 percent do.

“It’s quite shocking,” said Dr. Kent A. Sepkowitz, director of infection control at theMemorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. “We’ve never lost an antibiotic this fast. It blew me away.”

The single mutation that creates Tamiflu resistance appears to be spontaneous, and not a reaction to overuse of the drug. It may have occurred in Asia, and it was widespread in Europe last year.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Let us all pray for Neil Young’s well being.

As Forrest Gump says, "That is all I have to say about that."

He Has a Heart of Gold and a Car of Biodiesel 

Near the midpoint of his sprawling, deeply satisfying show at Madison Square Garden on Monday night, Neil Young asked a simple question: “Where did all the money go?”

Near the midpoint of his sprawling, deeply satisfying show at Madison Square Garden on Monday night, Neil Youngasked a simple question: “Where did all the money go?” He sang this line and repeated it, for emphasis or symmetry. And a few moments later he issued variations on the wording — “Where did all the cash flow?/Where did all the revenue stream?” — that confirmed that it wasn’t such a simple question after all.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What a dangerous world we live in. If the crooks do not get you and you sidestep your elected officials then the nukes will. Damn!

Former Pentagon chief predicts Iran crisis soon

WASHINGTON (AP) — William Perry, who headed the Pentagon during a 1994 nuclear standoff with North Korea, predicted on Thursday that President-elect Barack Obama will soon face a nuclear crisis with Iran.

Iran is "moving inexorably toward becoming a nuclear power," with ominous implications for the Middle East, Perry said.

"It seems clear that Israel will not sit by idle while Iran takes the final steps toward becoming a nuclear power," Perry told a conference on foreign policy challenges facing the incoming Obama administration. The former Clinton administration defense secretary held out hope that more vigorous U.S. and international diplomacy could reverse North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. But he was less confident about stopping Iran’s ambitions.

"President Obama will almost certainly face a serious crisis with Iran," Perry said. "Indeed, I believe the crisis point will be reached in his first year in office. So on the nuclear front, President Obama will face a daunn!ting set of problems, none of which can be solved unilaterally."

Iran denies that its nuclear program is intended to build weapons. The Bush administration, while dismissing Iran’s claims of pursuing only peaceful uses of nuclear power, declined to negotiate directly with Iran.

Obama has said he favors "tough and direct diplomacy with Iran without preconditions," and that his administration, working with allies, will seek a comprehensive settlement with Iran to end its nuclear ambitions.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

For all us Boys and Gals out here in CIGA land, Dr. Bill Harvey asks us to watch the following, Knowing why Dr. Bill has the Dr. as his title will explain it all.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Disappearances and suicides: hedge fund managers specializing in destruction and distortion take note.

You don’t need Russian oligarchs as clients – some of the gold crowd would scare the hell out of the Russians.

I know a fellow named Rusty Bayonet that really qualifies, and god help us all if he brings his friends.

Thinking about that, I would not want the Green Hornet, Dr. Bob, CIGA Arlen, Big Tatanka and a host of angry others after me.

Financial people have to learn that they cannot play with people’s lives and always just walk away. When these nerds destroy markets they destroy thousands of people’s savings, most often without cause or reason.

When you make your living by ripping off market after market, once people identify who you are it is no longer what the nerds think is a simple and impersonal game.

Hiding is becoming less easy as freedom of information will certainly not protect you under a new administration.

Where I am concerned, I know exactly who and where you are.

‘Austria’s Woman on Wall Street’ on the Run?
By The Staff at

Sonja Kohn may be literally running for her life.

The woman once known here as "Austria’s woman on Wall Street" has disappeared. Kohn collected more than $2 billion from rich investors in Russia and across Europe for Bernard Madoff through her firm, Bank Medici. Touting her connections, she promised investors entrée to bigger fish in the finance world, including Madoff. Some say it’s not out of the question that she’s hiding from Russian clients (do we dare say, perhaps, the Russian mob?) who trusted her with their cash and have had their wallets hit even harder by the Russian stock market and plummeting commodity prices.

"With Russian oligarchs as clients, she might have reason to be afraid," a Viennese banker who knew Kohn and her husband told The New York Times.

This has left Bank Medici – which funneled money to the alleged ponzi schemer Madoff — in the hands of Austrian regulators. People who know her are even afraid to talk on the record, since being linked to Madoff these days isn’t, exactly, the best idea. A Bank Medici spokeswoman characterized Kohn, who has also served as an adviser to Austria’s economic affairs minister, foreign affairs minister and the Vienna Stock Exchange, as a "victim," but wouldn’t say where Kohn was.

Bank Medici had $2.1 billion in exposure to Madoff’s investment securities through hedge funds run by the bank, but it says it had no liquidity problems.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Turkey is going to negotiate with whom on behalf of whom in the Israel/Hamas situation?

Turkey denies reports of arms deal with Israel clip_image002[1]2009-01-07 01:59:03

ANKARA, Jan. 6 (Xinhua) — Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul Tuesday denied reports that an arms deal was signed between Turkey and Israel ahead of the Gaza operation, local Dogan News Agency reported on Tuesday.

The arms deal has nothing to do with the attacks. No military agreement was signed (with Israel) during our governments," the report quoted Gonul as saying, adding that the agreement in question was signed many years ago and its contents were not related with the recent political developments.

Turkish government came under fire after some media reports suggested that an arms deal worth 167 million U.S. dollars was signed with Israel ahead of the Gaza operations.

According to the reports, Turkey and Israel have a strong partnership in military equipment and arms. The trade volume between the two was 2.6 billion dollars in 2007, among which some suggest 1.8 billion dollars is attributed to military equipment trade.

Turkey has maintained one of the harshest rhetorics against Israel over its incursion in Gaza.


Dear Friends in China,

Respectfully, you are at best only partially correct. It was the unbridled, unregulated, unlisted, false evaluated worthless and to be ever worthless OTC derivatives manufactured primarily in the USA that has turned a normal economic correction into a terminal currency debacle.

I am amazed that even you will not say it the way it is. It must be so embarrassing to know you bought into the madness and acquired a mountain of eternally worthless crap OTC derivatives that you will not admit to in fear of loss of face.


U.S. blame game cannot change facts of financial crisis clip_image002 2009-01-07 19:22:19
By Xinhua Writer Huang Xin

BEIJING, Jan. 7 (Xinhua) — Plagued by the financial crisis that originated in the United States, the world economy has been thrown into chaos. While countries are battling the crisis, outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been playing a blame game.

Paulson said a failure to address the rise of emerging markets and resulting imbalances was partly to blame for the global financial crisis. The current U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also part of the game. He sees savings from countries like China as a cause of the property bubble in the United States.

Their remarks made headlines but cannot change the facts. It is widely accepted that the U.S. low interest rate policy, which encouraged excessive spending and caused the sub-prime crisis, was at the root of the problem.

The Fed used this policy to save the country’s economy from a contraction in the 1990s, when China and other emerging economies had no large trade surplus or savings.

Apparently, Paulson has mixed up cause and effect by suggesting that emerging economies pushed down U.S. interest rates.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

All that protected the Weimar citizens from their elected officials and the Papiermarc was Gold.

All that protects you against your elected officials and the Papierdollar is Gold.

Some day the Rentendollar will come. That you can be sure of.

Study history or become history.

All That Shimmers is Gold

The safe haven status of gold is starting to shine brighter and brighter, according to Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital. He explains his bullish outlook on the precious metal to CNBC’s Oriel Morrison.

Click here to view the video…


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Bloomberg loves to spin gold costs. Toronto analysts are simply CLUELESS. Gold share bear Hedge Funds just love it.

The key question here is was their project loan produced as recourse or non-recourse? If it was non-recourse and New Gold is accounting on International or Canadian GAAP then the derivative which produced the non-recourse must be charged or credited to the project. Ask them which, not me.

New Gold to Halt Operations at Brazil Mine on Costs
By Rob Delaney

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) — New Gold Inc., the Vancouver-based company that produces precious metal in Mexico, Brazil and Australia, halted output at one of its three producing mines because of high costs.

New Gold stopped operations at its Amapari mine in Brazil because lower-grade ore and rising quantities of waste material drove costs too high, the company said in a statement. New Gold is exploring options including a new processing facility for handling ore stockpiled at the site.

The company’s stock fell 16 cents, or 9 percent, to C$1.61 at 4:10 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The shares dropped 65 percent last year.

New Gold had planned to mine the Amapari deposit until the third quarter of 2009, according to the statement.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Look Forward To:

1. States issuing IOUs for State Tax Refunds, possibly to vendors as well.
2. Potential CONFISCATION of your IRA’s and other Retirement Plans including corporate into the Federal Social Security Funds.

This would impact two bird with one stone.

One of those birds is the turkeys with IRAs or any type of retirement program that neither you nor your family will ever get to spend (buying power wise).

The other bird is the Czar of the centrally planned government who then sits in the Cat Bird Seat of Financial Power now able to count and direct your hard earned retirement dollars.

Since the Fed has become the largest "wild-ass" hedge fund due to its recently acquired assets, why not become the Social Security Fund with all your IRAs and corporate retirement accounts full of OTC derivatives? Maybe Madoff can be recruited from a Federal airbase infirmary to run the new Social Insecurity Hedge Fund.

It will happen, sorry!

Maybe Lenin will turn out to be the world’s greatest economist and political philosopher if measured by new governments adopting his programmed and planned economy.

I am my own retirement program because like Harry Schultz we will never retire. Both of us would rather burn out than rust out.

California may delay tax refunds amid budget impasse
With Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s veto of Democrats’ $18-billion package of tax hikes and cuts, the state could begin issuing IOUs as soon as Feb. 1. GOP legislators join a suit against the package.
By Jordan Rau and Evan Halper 
January 7, 2009

Reporting from Sacramento — State officials on Tuesday braced for the possibility of delaying tax refunds to millions of Californians, along with student grants and payments to vendors, as the latest round of budget negotiations between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators collapsed.

With little more than a month’s worth of cash left in the state treasury, the governor and lawmakers have been unable to agree on how to erase a budget gap projected to reach $41.6 billion by the middle of next year. Democrats announced Tuesday that two weeks of discussions had ended in an impasse and sent Schwarzenegger the $18-billion fiscal package they passed last month. The governor vetoed it, as he had promised to do.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Not every such incident is as it appears or is reported, especially when this gets around to the nerd Hedge Fund Managers who specialize in destruction, believing all stories of violence are only on prime time TV. Want to borrow some of my rage? I have plenty to spare.

German billionaire kills self, family says
updated 9:54 p.m. EST, Tue January 6, 2009

(CNN) — German billionaire Adolf Merckle, one of the richest men in the world, committed suicide Monday after his business empire got into trouble in the wake of the international financial crisis, Merckle’s family said Tuesday in a statement.

Merckle, 74, was hit by a train in the southwestern town of Ulm, police said.

His family said the economic crisis had "broken" Merckle.

He was number 94 on the Forbes list of the world’s richest people. He had fallen from number 44 on the Forbes 2007 rich list as his fortune declined from $12.8 billion to $9.2 billion in 2008.

Merckle’s business empire included interests as diverse as cement-maker HeidelbergCement and generic drug-maker Ratiopharm. But he lost hundreds of millions of dollars, including company capital, betting against Volkswagen stock last year.

The state government of Baden-Wuerttemberg rejected his petition for financial assistance, and he entered bailout talks with several German banks.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Pakistan is now considered the Greatest threat the US has.

Hadley: Pakistan Poses Biggest Threat to the US
Wall Street Journal – USA
By JOHN D. MCKINNON WASHINGTON — The biggest foreign policy challenge awaiting President-elect Barack Obama’s is not Iraq or Afghanistan but Pakistan, …

Bush adviser: Iran, Pakistan key Obama challenges
The Associated Press
Outside the Mideast, the next administration’s top priority should be stabilizing an increasingly volatilePakistan, Stephen Hadley said. …

Pakistan indignant over India accusation
Houston Chronicle – United States
ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN — Pakistan on Tuesday forcefully denied a suggestion by India’s prime minister that official Pakistani agencies were involved in …

Pakistan rejects India ‘propaganda’ – Qatar
Pakistan has rejected as "propaganda" comments by India’s prime minister that Pakistani authorities must have know about and supported last November’s …

Pakistan demands access to Mumbai crime scene
Daily Times – Lahore,Pakistan
Talking to reporters in Islamabad, she asked India to stop the ‘blame game’ and cooperate with Pakistan against terrorism. India had admitted that Pakistan …

Pakistan calls for foreign support, not troops
The Associated Press
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Pakistan’s president called Tuesday for foreign allies to provide more support — not more troops — to help win the battle against …

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Where is Paul who photo opted during the election as his Right Hand Man?

Obama Warns of Prospect for Trillion-Dollar Deficits
Published: January 6, 2009

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WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama on Tuesday braced Americans for the unparalleled prospect of “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come,” a stark assessment of the budgetary outlook that he said would force his administration to impose tighter fiscal discipline on the government.

Mr. Obama sought to distinguish between the need to run what is likely to be record-setting deficits for several years and the necessity to begin bringing them down markedly in subsequent years. Even as he prepares a stimulus plan that is expected to total nearly $800 billion in new spending and tax cuts over the next two years, he said he would make sure the money was wisely spent, and he pledged to work with Congress to enact spending controls and efficiency measures throughout the federal budget.

“We’re not going to be able to expect the American people to support this critical effort unless we take extraordinary steps to ensure that the investments are made wisely and managed well,” Mr. Obama said, speaking about the dire fiscal outlook after meeting with his economic team for a second straight day.

In his most explicit language on the subject since winning the election, Mr. Obama sought to reassure lawmakers and the financial markets that he was aware of the long-term dangers of running huge deficits and would take steps to limit and eventually reduce them.

Big deficits force the government to borrow more money, saddling future generations with large financial burdens and leaving the nation reliant on foreign governments and other big investors to lend cash. The problem is even more acute now because credit markets, which in recent months have made it much harder and more expensive for businesses and individuals to borrow, could be further strained by financing a huge government deficit.

On Wednesday, Mr. Obama plans to name a chief performance officer with the task of finding government efficiencies. He has chosen Nancy Killefer, who is director of McKinsey & Company, a management consulting firm, and was an assistant secretary of the Treasury in the Clinton administration. The Congressional Budget Office will also release its latest budget estimates, providing the first official predictions of the shortfalls tied to the economic slowdown and the fallen financial markets.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

There is absolutely no question that the price of gold will reach $1200, $1650 and then continue onward to Alf’s numbers.

Three hoots for Panizutti, a close friend of Carlo Fibonacci.

Gold May Advance for Eighth Year as ‘Perfect Insurance’ Sought
By Nicholas Larkin, Claudia Carpenter and Pham-Duy Nguyen

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Gold, the best-performing metal in 2008, may appreciate for an eighth year as investors seek a refuge from declining interest rates at the same time that central banks inject more cash into the banking system.

The metal will average $910 an ounce in 2009, 4.3 percent more than last year, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts, traders and investors surveyed by Bloomberg. Silver and platinum, which averaged at least 12 percent more in 2008, will decline this year, the survey showed.

Gold prices may strengthen after about $29 trillion was wiped offequities last year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to as low as zero and governments sought to end the worst financial crisis since World War II. The metal was one of only four commodities to rise when the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell 36 percent, the worst year in a half-century.

“People fear inflation, they fear the credit crunch and they fear currency losses, and gold is the perfect insurance against all of that,” said Frederic Panizzutti, a senior vice president at Geneva-based bullion refiner MKS Finance SA, who forecasts gold will average more than $900 in the first half of 2009. Panizzutti was the most accurate forecaster in the London Bullion Market Association’s 2008 survey.

Average gold prices have risen for seven consecutive years, the longest winning streak since at least 1949. While the return of 5.8 percent through 2008 was the smallest since 2004 in dollar terms, gold rose 11 percent in euros and 44 percent in British pounds, data on Bloomberg show.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This number will rise to $17.2 trillion by June of 2010 or sooner.

You want to own the dollar and have no Gold? That is called financial suicide, yet horses still run back into burning barns from time to time, therein killing themselves.

The $8 trillion bailout
Many details of Obama’s rescue plan remain uncertain. But it’s likely to cost at least $700 billion – and that would push Uncle Sam’s bailouts near $8 trillion.

By David Goldman, staff writer
Last Updated: January 6, 2009: 9:28 AM ET

NEW YORK ( — Sitting down? It’s time to tally up the federal government’s bailout tab.

There was $29 billion for Bear Stearns, $345 billion for Citigroup. The Federal Reserve put up $600 billion to guarantee money market deposits and has aggressively driven down interest rates to essentially zero.

The list goes on and on. All told, Congress, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and other agencies have taken dozens of steps to prop up the economy.

Total price tag so far: $7.2 trillion in investment and loans. That puts a lot of taxpayer money at risk. Now comes President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus plan, some details of which were made public on Monday. The tally is getting awfully close to $8 trillion.

Obama’s plan would combine tax cuts with infrastructure job creation efforts. Economists say it could serve as an integral piece to the government’s remaining economic recovery puzzle.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Yes, "MASSIVE" is a good description of the up-coming, DOWNWARD heading US dollar.

Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse
Americans must prepare themselves for a massive collapse in the dollar as investors around the world dump their US assets, a former Bank of England policymaker has warned.
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Last Updated: 6:32PM GMT 05 Jan 2009

The long-held assumption that US assets – particularly government bonds – are a safe haven will soon be overturned as investors lose their patience with the world’s biggest economy, according to Willem Buiter.

Professor Buiter, a former Monetary Policy Committee member who is now at the London School of Economics, said this increasing disenchantment would result in an exodus of foreign cash from the US.

The warning comes despite the dollar having strengthened significantly against other major currencies, including sterling and the euro, after hitting historic lows last year. It will reignite fears about the currency’s prospects, as well as sparking fears about the sustainability of President-Elect Barack Obama’s mooted plans for a Keynesian-style increase in public spending to pull the US out of recession.

Writing on his blog, Prof Buiter said: "There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place."

He said that the dollar had been kept elevated in recent years by what some called "dark matter" or "American alpha" – an assumption that the US could earn more on its overseas investments than foreign investors could make on their American assets. However, this notion had been gradually dismantled in recent years, before being dealt a fatal blow by the current financial crisis, he said.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Pakistan in the News:

Taliban kill two US ‘spies’ in Pakistan: official

MIRANSHAH, Pakistan (AFP) — Taliban militants hanged one man and shot dead another in a restive Pakistani tribal region near the Afghan border, after accusing them of spying for the United States, an official said Tuesday.

The body of local tribesman Shahjir Khan, 25, was found early Tuesday dumped in the central market of Miranshah, the main town in the North Waziristan tribal district, a security official told AFP.

A note found with Khan’s body said he had been hanged because he had spied on Taliban activities and passed information to the United States, the official said.

The bullet-riddled body of an Afghan refugee identified as Akram Khan was found late Monday near the village of Sarobi, some 10 kilometres (six miles) south of Miranshah, with a similar note, he said.


Pakistan Agencies Aided Mumbai Attack, Singh Says (Update1)
By Bibhudatta Pradhan and James Rupert

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — “Official agencies” in Pakistan supported the militants who attacked Mumbai in November, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, making India’s sharpest accusation yet that Pakistan’s government was involved.

“There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan,” Singh told chief ministers of India’s states today at a meeting on counter-terrorism.

India yesterday gave Pakistan and other governments what it said was evidence linking Pakistani “elements” to the Nov. 26- 29 attack on Mumbai, increasing pressure on its neighbor to act against the militant group India has blamed for the assault. It is unclear how long Pakistan will need to judge the evidence and decide on any action, Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for Pakistan’s president, told India’s NDTV television today.


Pakistan ‘knew of Mumbai plot’

A senior Indian government official has suggested that leading figures in the Pakistani establishment must have known of the plot to carry out last November’s deadly attacks in Mumbai, and hinted that some may have actively supported it.

Shivshankar Menon, India’s foreign secretary said he found it "hard to believe that something of this scale … could occur without anybody, anywhere in the establishment knowing that this was happening."

Speaking to reporters in New Delhi, Menon dismissed repeated Pakistani assertions that the attacks were carried out by "non-state actors" and said India was unimpressed by Pakistani pledges to crackdown on suspects.

The attacks on multiple targets in India’s financial capital lasted for nearly three days and left 179 people dead with hundreds more wounded.

Menon’s comments came after Indian officials handed Islamabad evidence they say clearly shows the attack originated in Pakistan.

New Delhi has previously been careful not to blame the attacks on the Pakistani government, and Monday’s statement accused "elements in Pakistan" of being behind the plot.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Monetization of market-less bankrupt debt with no guarantee of recovery in value is the ULTIMATE ACT OF INFLATION, in this case, the US dollar.

Axiom: To monetize debt is to inflate currency


What Does Monetize Mean?

1. To convert into money.
2. To convert from securities into currency that can be used to purchase goods and services.

Investopedia explains Monetize…

For example, you’ll often hear Internet marketers talk about "monetizing website visitors." This is another way of saying that the marketers are trying to figure out a way of making money from website visitors, such as through advertising, ecommerce, etc.

New York Fed Begins Purchases of Agency Mortgage Debt (Update1)
By Craig Torres

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York started buying mortgage-backed securities today as part of a $500 billion program to support the U.S. housing market.

The New York Fed “began purchasing fixed-rate mortgage- backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae,” the Fed bank said in a statement released by e- mail. “Selected private investment managers are acting as agents of the New York Fed in these purchases.”

The central bank didn’t disclose the amount of the purchases, saying such details will be available on the New York Fed’s website beginning Thursday, Jan. 8, and will be updated each Thursday.

The Fed chose BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Pacific Investment Management Co. and Wellington Management Co. to manage the $500 billion purchase of mortgage- backed securities it plans to complete by June.

The collapse of U.S. mortgage finance last year led to the worst credit crisis in seven decades and triggered writedowns and losses at financial institutions exceeding $1 trillion.

The central bank has expanded credit by $1.3 trillion over the past year through programs extending liquidity to banks, bond dealers and other financial institutions. The Fed plans to create money to purchase the bonds, boosting bank reserves.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following reasons offered at a press conference of the NY Fed (not really) assure us that Zimbabwe/Mugabe economics will never occur in the USA.

1. There was no theft of funds here.
2. The use of the trillions of dollar of bailout money is totally transparent.
3. Those that caused the problems have been dealt with severely.
4. The Balance Sheet of the US Fed is pristine.
5. The Fed will of course mop up all the excess liquidity as soon as they get set up as the Miraculous Hedge Fund, retaining goofy Madoff as their manager floating $5 trillion in the internal US credit market as China opts out.

Zimbabwe’s money man plans to keep on printing
January 1 2009

The activists print anti-Gono fliers in English and Shona and target people standing in line at banks to withdraw money. They feature cartoons of Gono loading Reserve Bank money into the back of cars or gulping down feasts, usually with his foot on a child’s skeleton.

"IT’S YOUR MONEY — TAKE IT NOW!" screams one flier.

"IF GONO STAYS WE WILL ALL DIE!" bellows another.

"Gono is the weak link in the Mugabe regime because he’s become incredibly powerful and incredibly bloated, and he’s got very few friends in the system," said one activist involved in the project, who spoke anonymously for fear of reprisals. "No ministry can get access to cash without going to Gono. He controls everything. He’s become this power-mad individual who’s loathed by the whole country."

He said other members of the group regarded the GonoGoNow project as their most dangerous anti-regime activity. "They think Gono would kill over this," said the activist.

Gono recently launched his book, "Zimbabwe’s Casino Economy," dashed off in 60 days. In an economy where most U.S. dollar transactions are banned, his book is priced at $40.

Tony Hawkins, an independent Harare-based economist whose citation awarding Gono an MBA distinction is appended, these days describes Gono’s performance as "disastrous."



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Pakistan today!

India Set to Show Pakistan Links to Mumbai Attacks, Times Says
By Jay Shankar

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — India will release evidence next week of Pakistani involvement in the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, the Times of India reported, citing officials it didn’t identify.

A detailed confession by the lone surviving terrorist, Ajmal Kasab, will highlight a report to be delivered to India-based diplomats of the U.S., U.K., China and other countries, as well as to officials in foreign capitals, the newspaper reported. A copy will also be given to Pakistan, it said.

The report includes photographs and identities of all 10 terrorists, phone logs, data from a global positioning system device and call intercepts, the paper said.

Other evidence includes a logbook recovered from the vessel that carried the terrorists from Karachi, records of satellite phones used by the attackers and transcripts of conversations between the terrorists and their “handlers” in Pakistan during the Nov. 26-29 attack, the Times reported, quoting government sources it didn’t identify.

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation was granted “unprecedented” access to all the evidence and intelligence collected by India, according to the newspaper.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember the comparative interest rate gang that declared that to be the sole determinant of a currency’s value? Where have those bulls all gone?

Evans says Fed needs to mimic below-zero rates
Sat Jan 3, 2009 9:37pm EST
By Ros Krasny

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – A grim economic outlook highlights the need for the Federal Reserve to step up quantitative measures to boost growth, with official interest rates already effectively at zero, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Saturday.

Evans said that based on the outlook for rising unemployment, falling industrial production and a wider output gap, economic models suggest rates should be below zero.

"If it were not constrained by zero, those models would want to push it below zero, but that’s not possible," Evans told reporters after a panel at the American Economic Association’s meeting in San Francisco.

Quantitative easing, a way to flood the banking system with large amounts of money, "is a way to mimic below-zero rates and provide support to the economy," he said.


Posted by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

A misjudgment by Israel, Pakistan goes nuclear and 2012 is tomorrow. If this is not it, it is close.

Israeli tanks roll into Gaza strip as ground invasion begins
BY ERICA SILVERMAN in Ramallah, West Bank and CHRISTINA BOYLE in New York
Updated Saturday, January 3rd 2009, 7:18 PM

Israeli troops and tanks crossed into the Gaza Strip under the cover of darkness Saturday, signaling the start of a bloody ground offensive that military leaders warned would not be short.

Hamas, which seized control of Gaza a year and a half ago and has been attacking Israel with rockets, responded with defiant threats.

"We will fight till our last breath. Your invasion of Gaza will not be a cakewalk. Gaza will be your cemetery," Hamas spokesman Ismail Radwan said.

Israeli officials called up tens of thousands of reservists and warned the incursion would not end quickly.

"It won’t be easy and it won’t be short," Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a televised address. "We do not seek war, but we will not abandon our citizens to the ongoing Hamas attacks."


Israel’s Worst Fears
Its U.S. ambassador says the big threat is that Iran has almost enough fuel for its first nuclear weapon.
Published Jan 3, 2009
From the magazine issue dated Jan 12, 2009

Sallai Meridor has been Israel’s ambassador to the United States since 2006. During that time, his government’s main strategic worry has been Iran, and that remains so today despite the fighting in Gaza. Israel warns that Iran is making rapid progress toward a nuclear bomb—Meridor calculates that Tehran should have enough fuel for its first bomb sometime in 2009—and that Israel will take military action unless the United States and other allies step in. A former intelligence officer, Meridor recently met with NEWSWEEK editors in New York to discuss Iran and how best to deal with it. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: Is there a timetable on Iran’s nuclear program? The CIA is saying they could have a weapon by 2015.
MERIDOR: Look, this is the most critical issue for America and the Western world. The major concern is instability and the potential for nuclear weapons to escape the region, which is not necessarily going to wait until Iran has a nuclear warhead on a missile. The closer they get to having a bomb, and the closer they are perceived to be, you can expect Iran’s neighbors to start acting on the assumption that Iran is going to have a bomb.

How close is Iran?
The last IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] report, some weeks ago, indicated that the Iranians already have 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. The previous report found 480 kilograms. At that pace they are producing close to 2.5 kilograms a day. And over the past few months they have had a technological breakthrough. Experts differ on how much low-enriched uranium you need for a first bomb. But even if you took the more conservative assumption, sometime in 2009 they will have enough. That nobody would argue against: no intelligence service, no experts.



Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.

2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.

3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.

4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.

5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.

6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.

7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.

8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).

9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.

10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.

11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.

12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year
$2 Trillion Increase May Test Federal Ability to Borrow
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer 
Saturday, January 3, 2009; Page A01

With President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats considering a massive spending package aimed at pulling the nation out of recession, the national debt is projected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing U.S. government spending.

For now, investors are frantically stuffing money into the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury, which has come to serve as the world’s mattress in troubled times. Interest rates on Treasury bills have plummeted to historic lows, with some short-term investors literally giving the government money for free.

But about 40 percent of the debt held by private investors will mature in a year or less, according to Treasury officials. When those loans come due, the Treasury will have to borrow more money to repay them, even as it launches perhaps the most aggressive expansion of U.S. debt in modern history.

With the government planning to roll over its short-term loans into more stable, long-term securities, experts say investors are likely to demand a greater return on their money, saddling taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come. Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest U.S. creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the United States as the bedrock of the global financial system.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is one way to cut down on public assistance. Starve our fixed income retirees out of the equation.

Savers facing accounts with no interest
Millions of savers are braced for zero per cent accounts within days as the Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates to the lowest level in its 315-year history.
By Edmund Conway and Myra Butterworth
Last Updated: 1:44PM GMT 03 Jan 2009

Experts have warned the return on savings could plumb new depths with the Bank expected to take unprecedented steps to regain control over the economy.

They widely believe the Bank will reduce borrowing costs to below their 2 per cent level – and possibly all the way down to 1 per cent – in its first meeting of the year next week.

More than 7 million people have saving accounts which already pay interest of 1 per cent or less. If a cut is passed on in full by banks, these accounts will dive towards negative territory for the first time on record.

Many elderly people who rely on the income from savings have found themselves struggling in recent months as returns fall.

Just 18 months ago average interest rates on savings accounts were as high as 6 per cent. But consecutive cuts by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee have led to banks slashing their savings rates, with the current average rate being just 2 per cent.