Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Central banks are now all in and no longer even have the option of not protecting asset prices from falling” – Tyler Durden

“Liquidity Dies In Darkness”: Trillions In Assets Have No Financial Disclosure To Support Them
September 15, 2019

While there has been extensive discussion of the passive/ETF/index fund bubble, most recently by Michael “Big Short” Burry, who most recently joined the parade of skeptics warning of the implicit and explicit dangers the passive investing bubble carries with it, perhaps the most interesting angle of the ETF stampede into fixed income securities – which include junk bonds and leveraged loans in addition to the recent frenzy for investment grade debt – is the fact that a substantial portion of it now trades with virtually no fundamental information. In other words, assets are being bought (if not so much sold) simply to accommodate the flood of investor money, with no regard for actual financial data or corporate newsflow.

This is highlights in a recent note by TCW’s Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income, Tad Rivelle, who currently manages some $170 billion in AUM, and who writes that as a result of the above, “not only have the debt markets ballooned in size, but the growth has come disproportionately from those segments of the debt market where financial disclosure is poor.”

As a result of this, Rivelle observes that “If democracy dies in darkness, so does liquidity in that embodiment of economic democracy, i.e., the capital markets.” His conclusion is jarring: this lack of underlying information, while ignored when the tide is rising, leads to an immediate collapse in liquidity when the selling begins and results in a scramble for information, to wit:

When information is scarce, investors must color in between the lines. That which is not known nor well quantified must be assumed or modeled. The door is therefore open to different investors reaching quite different conclusions about the underlying value of an asset leading, of course, to illiquidity.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Are The Algos Prepared For This In Silver?
September 16, 2019

 Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is trading higher after that “unplanned” short attack on Friday failed miserably, unless they really wanted us to know they planned this ahead of time, with the trade now at $1,511.70, up only $12.20 after reaching up to $1,519.70 before the Algo’s came in to set things straight with the low down at $1,506.30. Silver is held in check as well and by the same Algo team with its trade at $17.92, up 35.1 cents after breaking thru and up to $18.065 with the low at $17.69. The September US Dollar trade, which ends today, is currently at 98.345, up 9 points and is literally at the high with the low at 98.055. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.   

      In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 15,098.10, showing a loss of 25.97 Bolivar with Silver now gauged at 178.976 Bolivar proving a 2.996 loss in value. In Argentina, Gold is now priced at 84,739.02 showing a loss of 200.54 Peso’s with Silver now valued at 1,004.51 losing 17.64 in Peso value. Turkey’s Lira now has Gold priced at 8,645.04, it too losing from Friday mornings early price check by the tune of 61.08 T-Lira with Silver at 102.481 showing it lost 0.793 in T-Lira value. It must be remembered here that the drop in price occurred on Friday during Comex’s trading times and after my post. Precious metals are recovering from that “unplanned” Friday hit but has yet to fully restore its value. We still stay Resolute in our beliefs that the buyers are winning.   

      It looks like all the activity in the September Silver Deliveries last Friday was all about clearing demands off the board with the total count at 389 fully paid for contracts waiting for physicals here or in London showing a drop of 136 in count. So far this morning we have a Volume of 4 posted up on the board with no trading range. This is supposed to be a spread trader exiting a spread in the delivery month, which should have a price attached to it, but alas, those that break the rules are the ones that are supposed to enforce them.     

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Au/Ag Prepping For The Triple Witch Week
September 13, 2019

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

Gold is positive again in the early morning with the trade now at $1,514.30, up $6.90 with the high nearby at $1,515.40 with the low at $1,502.90. Silver is up as well with the price at $18.22 up 4.3 cents after reaching up to $18.265 with the low at $18.045. The US Dollar, which spiked up to 90.105 during yesterday’s trade, and because the Draghi team cut rates to negative .5%, is now at 98.040 down 26.8 points for the moment with the high at 98.435 and the low close by at 98.000. All of this was done while the Comex was closed, before 5 am pst, and before the closing of London for the week.

In Venezuela, the Bolivar is losing value as Gold’s price increased with the price now pegged at 15,124.07 Bolivar, showing a gain of 18.97 in value with Silver now at 181.972, showing us a loss of .849 in value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 84,939.56 showing a pullback with 11.96 Pesos taken off the price with Silver now at 1,022.15, losing 6.24 Pesos. In Turkey the Lira now has Gold valued at 8,583.96 proving a gain of 5.84 Lira after yesterday’s sudden reduction in interest rates just before the Euro-Union did the same with Silver now at 103.274 proving Silver lost 0.593 in T-Lira value.

September Silver Deliveries is still where all the activity resides with the Demands for Physicals standing at 525 fully paid for requests waiting to be transferred to London because we still have no physicals settled out here, proving a drop in count from yesterday’s numbers of 171 contracts with 135 (yesterday’s end of trade Volume) contracts being traded in-between a trading range $18.165 and $18.08 (yesterday). What we think we are witnessing in the early morning trades is the first purchases are always done at the higher pricings but later in the day, much smaller amounts of contracts get settled bringing the prices lower towards the end of the day. In short, more purchases are done at the higher prices but these single lot orders seem to be getting “special privilege” for the sake of reducing the price only. Really bizarre thinking reducing the prices instead of raising them when we see strong and continual daily demands. That’ll teach those buyers! It seems the Comex really has become a bankers joke.

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J. Johnson Updates

We have another 8 purchases inside the September Silver Delivery System which just by coincidence (again) has sent the prices down to $18.795…Proving the thesis that these low purchase numbers are just for keeping prices low…

Stay Resolute!

J. Johnson

And now the Volume in September is at 141 with the price still at $17.795…More buying means cheaper prices…Go Team Go!!

J. Johnson

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Impressive rally in Precious Metals – Resolutes?
September 12, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,    

      Gold has turned higher in the overnight with the trade now at $1,512.40, up $9.20 and close to the high to beat at $1,513.70 with the low just below the Maginot line at $1,496.80. Silver is following with its price at $18.305, up 13.5 cents with the high to beat at $18.380 and a low at $18.085. The US Dollar, the one currency that refuses to lose support, even when the President is saying “drop the value so we can compete” publicly, is now trading at 98.55, down 7.8 points inside a very tight trading range between 98.67 and 98.495. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.     

      Our emerging markets currency watch is mixed (for now) with the Venezuelan Bolivar holding Gold’s price at 15,105.10 Bolivar adding 133.94 in value with Silver at 182.821, improving the value by 1.401 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso’s price for Gold now stands at 84,951.52, an increase in value of 1,027.84 with Silver now trading at 1,028.39 adding 11.40 Peso’s to its value. Over in Turkey, the Lira has surged in price as the central over there cut rates by 3.25% now putting Gold’s price at 8,578.12 showing a reduction in value of 62.80 Lira’s with Silver’s trade at 103.867 showing a loss of .823 Lira as we suspect this to only be a temporary pullback and should follow the norm (higher) real soon.       

      Yesterday was an impressive day inside Silver’s Delivery Month with the demand for physicals now at 696 fully paid for obligations showing us the Resolute Buyer is still demanding product as he increased the demands by 98 more (5,000 ounce) contracts during yesterday’s trade and with a total Volume of 318 buy/sells taking place after our secondary post. As of this morning’s activity, we see a Volume of 53 up on the board so far with a trading range between $18.165 and $18.070 with the last trade at $18.145.     

      Silver’s Overall Open Interest is now at 217,625 Overnighters showing us the entire increase from yesterday’s secondary note being inside the Deliveries. The additions total 93 in count compared to the 98 added yesterday inside the September contract, so someone owes us 5 more contracts (joke). How much control do they really have if there is arguably no product to sell at these super cheap prices? We haven’t seen a single ounce leave Comex yet (thank you Harvey for your posts) so far this month.      

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Remember Remember The 11th Of September!
September 11, 2019

Gold is flat this September 11th with the trade at $1,499.00, down 20 cents yet closer to the high at $1,502.90 than the low at $1,492.90. Silver is flat as well with its trade at $18.165, down 2.1 cents with the low at $18.065 and the high to beat at $18.335. The US Dollar’s trade now stands at 98.595, up another 28.8 points and right beside the high at 98.605 with the low way down at 98.28, all of this of course was done while we slept, before the Comex Open, and the London close.    

     Gold is still correcting in our emerging markets currency watch yet Silver may have proven itself to have bottomed out. In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 14,971.26 Bolivar, showing a loss of 13.99 with Silver now at 181.42 Bolivar, proving a gain of 1.50. In Argentina, Gold is now priced at 83,923.68 taking out another 105.53 Peso’s with Silver at 1,016.99 gaining 7.98 in Peso value. Our European currency in crisis, the Turkish Lira, now has Gold valued at 8,640.92, it too showing a reduction in value of 21.88 with Silver now pegged at 104.69 showing the currency added .680 T-Lira in value.  

     We had a rather large delivery of receipts or physicals settled out in the September Silver Delivery System with the demand count now at 598 proving a reduction of 320 fully paid for demands with a Volume of 84 up on the board so far with a trading range between $18.070 and $18.065. This is a ½ penny trading range with 84 contracts being traded. Talk about tight, now the Volume posts 88 with the last additions/subtractions trading at the high ($18.07).    

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A J. Johnson Update;

So far this morning, inside the September Silver delivery futures contract, a Volume of 291 contracts swapped hands today. What’s really bizarre, strange, amazing odds, whatever one wants to use to describe, the trading range for these 291 swaps is ½ a penny…$18.070 and $18.065…

Stay Strong,

J. Johnson

Bill Holter’s Commentary

If anyone would know it would be first responders…

New York Area Fire Commissioners Call for New 9/11 Investigation

September 2, 2019

September 11, 2001, was nearly 20 years ago, and after all this time, so many questions still remain about what exactly happened. It is not socially acceptable to question the official explanation that was given for the collapse of the towers and the other events of that day, but now these questions are being taken more seriously.

However, the rushed and poorly managed 9/11 commission report did not do an adequate job at investigating the crimes, which left experts in a variety of different fields with questions about the official story. Many of these professionals belong to an organization called Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth, who have been pushing for a new investigation into the attacks for many years.

This July, they announced a major breakthrough in their fight for a proper investigation. According to a press release published on the group’s website, New York Fire Commissioners who were closely involved with the events of that day, have called for a new investigation into the 9/11 attacks.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

But, how can this be? We are told we have the strongest economy ever? Come to think of it…didn’t this type of stuff happen back in 2008?

Moody’s Cuts Ford Credit Rating To ‘Junk’ Status
September 9, 2019

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Ford Motor Co.’s credit rating to “junk” status Monday, a move that could make it more expensive for the automaker to borrow as it undertakes a sweeping global restructuring amid slowing global sales and a rapidly changing industry.

The ratings agency believes the automaker’s years-long restructuring under CEO Jim Hackett will be too costly to generate much return for shareholders. Monday’s downgrade to Ba1 — the highest non-investment grade rating — comes as Ford and Hackett have said repeatedly over the last year that 2019 would deliver the results promised, including improved profit margins around the world.

Last August, Moody’s had downgraded Ford to its lowest investment grade, Baa3. In May, Moody’s upgraded Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV to the same Ba1 status, an improvement for the automaker driven by strong SUV and truck sales in North America. And the agency last November labeled General Motors Co.’s U.S. restructuring “credit positive.”

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver’s Resolutes Are Staying In Place!
September 10, 2019

  Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,    

      The pressure is on during the overnight with Gold seeing the most of the price beatings with the trade at $1,500.40, down $10.70 after being pushed down to $1,494.30 with the high to beat at $1,508. Silver is following with the trade at $18.015, down 15.2 cents after being knocked down to $17.855 with the high to beat at $18.135. The US Dollar is hardly worth talking about because it refuses to move with the trade at 98.425, up 17.7 points and close to its high at 98.44 with the low at 98.235. All of this was done sometime before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and as if parliament being shut down for a months’ time ain’t nothin’ but negative to precious metals.   

      We still show corrections in the price throughout our emerging markets watch with Venezuela’s Bolivar now pricing Gold at 14,985.25 showing a drop in value of 196.75 Bolivar with Silver trading at 179.92 showing a loss of 3.001 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso is pricing Gold at 84,029.21 showing a loss of 742.86 with Silver losing 12.18 with its price now at 1,009.01 A-Pesos. In the land of Turkey, Gold is now trading at 8,662.80 Lira showing a 44.76 Lira correction with Silver now at 104.01 losing 0.905 Lira.   

      September Silver’s Delivery Demands increased during yesterday’s trades with the fully paid for demands for Silver now at 918 showing an additional 33 contracts were added during yesterday’s push lower. So far this morning we show a Volume of 24 with a trading range between $17.885 and $17.77 with the last 2 buys at the high, yet still showing a negative of 13.5 cents from yesterdays close. The previous day’s activities within the delivery month are worth reviewing as the Volume recorded during yesterday’s trade showed 515 contracts traded out, or in. This is a very large Volume for such a small purchase, wouldn’t you say? We now have to keep an eye on Harvey’s stats to see how many of these buys were sent to the land without parliament or were actually delivered here.       

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Has Jamie Dimon been listening to Jim on our weekend calls? Jim has been saying this for over two years now, but as usual was early…

Jamie Dimon On The End Of Trading: “The Battle Is More In The Tech World Than In Having Brilliant Traders”
September 10, 2019

The world of trading, as generations of traders knew it, is over, and it took a timestamp from Jamie Dimon to make it official: “The battle is more in the tech world at this point than in having brilliant traders.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so, in a world in which being a better trader – i.e. outsmarting everyone else – no longer matters as the market is now hopelessly broken by central banks, and instead just speed and the ability to frontrun orderflow is relevant, it is no surprise that JPMorgan was reserved in its Q3 revenue outlook, which while set to rise 10% in Q3 – only due to a base effect – will continue the recent trend of disappointing trading revenue

“We’re not jumping for joy,” JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday during an investor conference in New York, quoted by Bloomberg. The 10% gain is only possible because Q3 2018 was very weak; on a sequential basis, the Q3 2019 revenue will be a decline of about 10% versus the already disappointing second quarter, Dimon said.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver’s Resolutes Ain’t Budgin’
September 9, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,    

      We’re glad to see our precious metals are returning to higher prices, we remain optimistic regardless of the price swings, because of all the shorting activities behind the price are failing, with Gold at $1,520.10, up $4.70 and close to its high of $1,522.20 with the low at $1,511.50. Silver is leading the charge with the trade at $18.315, up 19.6 cents after getting up to $18.40 with the low at $18.015. The US Dollar’s trade remains Steady Eddie for now with its value at 98.295, close to the low at 98.27 with the high of 98.475. All this activity happened before 5 am pst, the Comex Open, the London close, and the suspension of Parliament.     

      Our emerging market currency watch is showing nothing but positive with the Venezuelan Bolivar pricing Gold at 15,182.00 offering up a 69.91 Bolivar gain with Silver at 182.921, showing a gain of 1.049 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now prices Gold at 84,772.07 Pesos, showing a slight gain of 4.34 with Silver now at 1,021.19 Pesos, it too gaining 1.04 since Friday’s quote. The Turkish Lira now has Gold pegged at 8,707.56, showing a gain of 74.19 T-Lira with Silver at 104.915, proving a gain of 1.016 in T-Lira value.    

      September Silver Deliveries are not disappointing with the Demand count now at 885, showing a reduction of 215 from Friday’s numbers and with a volume of 237 up on the board so far with a trading range between $18.205 and $17.96 with the last trade at $17.99. We offer another curious note on the trading range numbers for September Silver. The closing price on Friday was below the trading range in Silver. Yes I wrote the right! The trading range was $18.685 and $17.97, but the closing price was $17.968, go figure!       

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

$400 trillion, give or take a few trillion? Is this real? Yes probably close. The real shocker is that the cheerleaders at CNBS posted it!…But don’t buy gold or silver because they are too “scary scary”…Gold and silver are your ONLY protection!

Real US Debt Levels Could Be 2,000% Of Economy, A Wall Street Report Suggests
September 9, 2019

Total potential debt for the U.S. by one all-encompassing measure is running close to 2,000% of GDP, according to an analysis that suggests danger but also cautions against reading too much into the level.

AB Bernstein came up with the calculation — 1,832%, to be exact — by including not only traditional levels of public debt like bonds but also financial debt and all its complexities as well as future obligations for so-called entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and public pensions.

Putting all that together paints a daunting picture but one that requires nuance to understand. Paramount is realizing that not all of the debt obligations are set in stone, and it’s important to know where the leeway is, particularly in the government programs that can be changed either by legislation or accounting.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Pay Attention To Ag’s Resolute Buyer And The Future Us Dollar Drop In Value!
September 6, 2019

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

      Gold is continuing its price correction after yesterday’s push lower with the trade now at $1,513.10, down $12.40 with the London low close by at $1,510.90 and the high at $1,528.50. Silver seems to be leading the price drop with its trade at $18.21, down 59.7 cents with the low at $18.12 and the high at $18.63. The currency all eyes should be on, the US Dollar, is still being supported with its trade at 98.475, up 9.3 points and right beside the London high at 98.48 with the low that needs to be crushed at 98.285. All of this activity, going against everything price wise under our currency, happened before 5am pst, the Comex open, and the closing of London.   

      The emerging markets currency watch is showing the same price reversals with the Venezuelan Bolivar valuing Gold at 15,112.09 Bolivar showing a 382.52 drop in price with Silver now at 181.872 showing a loss of 11.286 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold valued at 84,767.73 showing a reduction of 2,005.73 A-Pesos with Silver doing the same, losing 61.67 A-Pesos with the price at 1,020.15. The Turkish Lira is also doing its best to make the value of its fiat look better than the metals with Golds price losing 188.20 T-Lira with the official price at 8,633.37 Lira. Silver’s price now rests at 103.899 showing a loss of 6.046 in T-Lira value.    

      There sure was a lot of drama on the September Silver Delivery stage yesterday with the total count now standing for delivery at 1,100 fully paid for demands for physical proving a drop in count of 282 and with a Volume of 212 so far this morning with a trading range between $18.63 and $18.00 with the last trade at $18.235. Even though the count dropped 212, the Volume in the early morning report yesterday morning was 382 and by the end of Comex trade, the Volume was more than double the drop in count. This tells me the Resolute Buyer stepped in during the commotion and added a few hundred more physical buy orders at these cheap prices. Whether this is paper or not won’t matter to the market players, but that physical buyer will need the real product or his business is out of business.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Jim coined the phrase “QE to Infinity” many years ago…only now does the mainstream begins to recognize it?

Blackrock CIO: The Endgame Is Coming And Central Banks Will Debase Everything To Spark Inflation
September 6, 2019

Blackrock’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, best known perhaps for recently suggesting that the ECB should monetize stocks, writes in the Blackrock blog today and highlights the economic policy state-of-play today, and where it may lead to should economic growth falter, productivity not materialize, and populism continue to thrive.

* * *

The major global central banks continue to draw bigger guns in their battle against deflation, yet in some places, it appears to be of no avail. The fact is that the share of sovereign yields that are in negative territory keeps increasing and the average level of these interest rates becomes ever more negative. Further, quantitative easing (QE) purchases of sovereign debt have transitioned to purchases of corporate debt, and in some places equities; with inflation still elusive and improved growth prospects in question. That all leads one to wonder where (and how) these policies end? What is today’s monetary policy endgame?

Turn to economic history for perspective

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The UN pulls its pants down for all to see?

Head of UN Global Communications Says Illegally Entering the U.S. is a Right
September 6, 2019

The head of United Nations Global Communications says that it is a “right” for migrants to illegally enter the United States.

Writing on Facebook, Melissa Flemming asserted that, “the right to seek asylum is enshrined in Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights & was made binding by the 1951 Refugee Convention.”

“It is never a crime to seek asylum in another country even if one enters a country irregularly,” she added.

As head of communications, Flemming, who is American, is also the spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the same organization that Rep. Ilhan Omar advocated take control of the US-Mexico border last week.

“We should do what any other country does by dealing with this situation in a serious way,” Omar said during an immigration forum in south Minneapolis.

“So, we have to bring in the United Nations high commissioner on refugees, an agency that has the expertise and the training to handle massive flows of refugees humanely.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…because the economic pie is shrinking!

It’s Happening Again: Maersk Halts Asia-Europe Loop Amid Global Slowdown
September 6, 2019

Growth in the world continues to collapse into late summer, so much so that Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) had to “temporarily suspend” their AE2/Swan Asia to North Europe loop until mid-November, removing 20,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) a week from trade, reported The Loadstar.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Collapsing demand and plunging shipping container rates have led to pain for carriers who sail their vessels along the route. This is the second time Maersk and MSC have suspended the circuit, and the last time this happened was last fall.

Maersk and MSC said it’s working hard to “balance its network to match reduced market demand for the upcoming [Chinese factory shutdown] Golden Week.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Alan Greenspan knows…he has ALWAYS known!

Greenspan: Rising Gold Price Shows Investors Want Hard Assets That Will Increase In Value
September 6, 2019

Via SchiffGold.com,

During a CNBC interview, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said gold prices are surging because investors are looking for hard assets that they know will have value in 20 or 30 years.

Gold is up more than 21% on the year and is trading at levels not seen since 2013.

During the interview, Greenspan focused on an interesting fundamental he thinks is driving both the bond and gold markets – the aging population. He said there has been a shift in time preferences as people recognize they will likely live longer and they will need to finance those longer lives. This, he says, is increasing the demand for hard assets like gold.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Everything!…except themselves?

Dems At Climate Forum: Ban Everything! [Supercut]
September 5, 2019

Democrats appearing at CNN’s marathon 7-hour global warming forum have a plan to solve a changing climate: Ban everything!

Over the course of the television extravaganza, Democrats’ leading 2020 presidential candidates floated a variety of proposals to cut Americans’ energy use and, ostensibly, to stop the climate from changing.

Among them: Bans on plastic straws, red meat, incandescent lightbulbs, gas-powered cars, nuclear energy, off-shore drilling, fracking, natural gas exports, coal plants, and even “carbon” itself.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), asked if she supports banning fracking, said “of course.”

“There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking, so yes. And starting — and starting with what we can do on day one around public lands, right? And then there has to be legislation, but yes — and this is something I’ve taken on in California. I have a history of working on this issue. And to your point, we have to just acknowledge that the residual impact of fracking is enormous in terms of the impact on the health and safety of communities.”

When she was asked if she’d ban plastic straws, she also answered affirmatively: “I think we should, yes. I’m going to be honest.”

Sen. Warren said she’d ban new nuclear plants: “We’re not going to build any nuclear power plants and we’re going to start weaning ourselves off of nuclear energy and replacing it with renewable fuels. We’re going to get it all done by 2035.”

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