Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do you remember the days when the sale of $1 billion worth of “precious paper” gold would cause a $25 or even $50 drop in gold’s price? Today they got a lousy 5 bucks for their troubles! The world she is a changin’!

Gold Tumbles Back Below $1300 As Someone Suddenly Dumps $1 Billion Of ‘Precious Paper’
March 29, 2019

As Europe closed, it seems someone decided now was a great opportunity to puke over $1 billion notional of paper gold into the futures market to send the precious metal back below the key $1300 level…

Huge volume spike…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot gold broke back below its 50DMA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More positive developments in Tanzania for ethical mining, from artisan to major.

East Africa’s First Gold Trading Hub To Fight Smuggling
March 18, 2019

Tanzania has launched an international gold trading centre in the gold-rich region of Geita.

Tanzania will thus join South Africa and Botswana, which boast a gold exchange hub and diamond bullion market respectively.

The centre, inaugurated on March 17, is among reforms introduced in the mining sector in the past three years to curb mineral smuggling.

The gold hub is meant to ease mineral trading, and ensure that businesses pay the required levies to the government.

Geita produces over 40 per cent of the gold exported from the country.

According to Geita Regional Commissioner Robert Gabriel, each of the five districts in the region will have one gold collection centre for small-scale miners, and two banks where gold trading will be taking place.

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Comex Opens, Now It’s Time To Go Back To Sleep…
March 19, 2019

Good Tuesday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is up again and hopefully it will stay that way when the Comex opens and we all go back to sleep (immediately after it opens) with the trade now at $1,308.50 (April) right beside the high of $1,308.80 with the low at $1,302.10. Silver is following with the May contract pegged at $15.41, up 8.8 cents and right beside its high at $15.42 with the low at $15.32. The Rollover in the currencies is complete with the June US Dollar trade now at 95.785, down 19.8 points and close to the low at 95.73 with the high at 95.975, of course all this was done way before the Comex Open and a hair past 5 am pst. At least in Venezuela, the currency prices remain steady (cough) with Gold’s price now at 13,068.64 Bolivar gaining 47.94 overnight with Silver pegged at 153.907, gaining only .699 Bolivar in value as we wait for the emerging currency markets volatility to infect the calm in the majors.   

      March Silver’s Deliveries are now showing a reduced count at 65 demands for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning proving a 10 count drop being delivered/settled/cleared somewhere between COMEX and the City and as we near the Brexit and Basel III date (3-29-19) that was set up a long time ago. Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained a bit more during yesterday’s nap time trading period at the Comex showing a gain of 481 Obligations making the count 187,344 Overnighters as of this morning’s report.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and a century is a very long time frame!

Buy Gold, Sell Stocks Is the ‘Trade of Century’ Says One Hedge Fund
March 19, 2019

One of last year’s best-performing hedge funds says the “trade of the century” is to buy gold and sell stocks as risk assets are due for another meltdown.

It’s only a matter of time until the bearish bet pays off big, according to Crescat Capital LLC. While the Denver-based firm has only about $50 million under management, it has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index — with its Global Macro Fund returning 41 percent last year alone. Now the investment company says it’s ready to capitalize on an end of the economic cycle as indicators warn that a recession is imminent in the coming quarters.

The consensus is pointing to a recession in 2020 or 2021, Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, said by phone. “We think it’s a lot closer than that and we have a number of macro timing indicators that we look at.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

As I alluded to in today’s writing, the “madness of crowds”. Even though not correct, they are the majority…

Realizing How Great It Is To Be Here Now!
March 18, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,  

      Gold is trading higher, at least while I’m writing with the latest price at $1,303.70, up a dollar in between a high of $1,306 and the low at $1,298. Silver is barely up as well with its trade at $15.34, adding 1.6 cents to Friday’s close and close to the high at $15.36 than the tested low at $15.22. The Currency Rollover is today, part of the Triple Witch accounting swap out we’ve been following for decades, with the US Dollar trading 20 points lower at 96.39, which is the low so far, with the high at 96.54. All this of course was done some time before 5 am pst and the Comex Open. In Venezuela, where debt is considered far more valuable than physical anything (that is until last year’s little flip) is showing Gold’s price at 13,020.70 proving a minor gain of 4.99 Bolivar, with Silvers price now at 153.208 losing .20 of a Bolivar as we hear but cannot trust anything from the news services about real news there.     

      March Silver’s Delivery Demands are showing an undelivered count at 75 requests for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. We doubt this number is correct since it was Friday’s open count and since we’ve gone thru this each Monday, we’ll wait for the Comex members to catch up with our requests, after all, we are the many against 1 or 2 Algos, too bad we can’t vote on this stuff, eh? Silver’s Overall Open Interest did drop a little on Friday before they stopped counting with the totals so far at 186,863 positions still in trade proving a loss of only 308 Overnighters as the count continues to fall in ever so slow a fashion all the while the international politicos are climaxing their dramas on how important it is for them to retain all their ill-gotten power over their voting populations.   

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Lawsuit By Sandy Hook Victims Against Gun Manufacturer Allowed To Move Forward
March 14, 2019

After months of silence, the Connecticut Supreme Court on Thursday reinstated a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the families of nine victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting against Remington Arms, the manufacturer of the rifle used in the shooting.

The court’s narrow decision, overturning a lower court judge, rules that Remington can be sued over its marketing practices under a Connecticut state law, despite protections offered to gun manufacturers by federal law. The ruling sends the case back to the lower court.

The suit is a high-stakes challenge to gun companies, which have rarely been held liable for crimes committed with their products, and could mark a new front in the battle over gun regulations and corporate accountability. It centers on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), a 2005 law that shields manufacturers and retailers from civil liability in lawsuits brought by victims of gun violence. An eventual ruling against Remington could establish legal precedent, opening doors for more lawsuits against gun manufacturers, and expose the company’s communications about its marketing plans.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Sunday reading.

Why Gold Is Still The Best Basis For Money
March 16, 2019

As we continue to enjoy the “Yellen gold standard,” now in its Powell phase — who knows how long it will last — let’s look at why the gold standard system worked so well for so many centuries, including nearly two centuries of U.S. history before the rupture in 1971, during which time the United States became the wealthiest country in the history of world.

In 1971, the economist Arthur Laffer — he was the chief economist of the Office of Management and Budget at the time — was asked what he thought the consequences would be of Nixon’s “closing of the gold window,” which effectively ended the Bretton Woods period when the dollar’s value was fixed at $35/ounce of gold.

“It won’t be as much fun to be an American anymore,” Laffer reportedly replied. And he was right.

But why? Why is it that the collective intelligence (let’s be generous) of today’s central bankers, and indeed all the central bankers since 1971, cannot outperform a yellow rock? This probably strikes some as bizarre, but it has always been thus. Way back in 1928, in a book called The Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Socialism and Capitalism, George Bernard Shaw declared:

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams www.shadowstats.com

– Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes

– Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
– These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, Construction and Payrolls
– February Housing Starts (March 26th), January Trade Deficit (March 27th) and An Eviscerated Annual Industrial Production Benchmarking (March 27th) Are the Last Major Reports, Prior to the March 28th Final GDP Estimate; There Is Limited Chance of a Reprieve
– The Economy Is Weakening Sharply and Quickly, Due to the Overly Aggressive Federal Reserve Tightening and Rate Hikes
– Where Current U.S. Economic Activity Has Signaled a New Recession, Major Business Sectors, Such as Manufacturing and Construction, Never Recovered Fully from the Last One
– Accordingly, the March 20th FOMC Meeting Is Not Too Early to Address the Intensifying Business Collapse; Yet, the FOMC Is Expected to Sit on Its Hands

“Bullet Edition No. 3”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Did you have any doubt this is a credit bubble?

Bonds With “Worst-Ever Covenants” Are 3x Oversubscribed
March 15, 2019

Just how much investor appetite is there for bonds? So much, that even in a week that saw the second biggest equity inflow on record (after a 13 week drought) buying of bonds continued for a 10th consecutive week, rising to $7.01bn from $2.74bn the week prior.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This flood into fixed income continues despite repeated warnings about the dangers of the corporate debt bubble from such investing icons as DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach and Marathon’s Bruce Richards, not to mention the IMF and BIS, who have been focusing on the growing risk of mass downgrades in the $3 trillion BBB-space, which could translate into a tsunami of fallen angels during the next recession.

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The Millennial Falcon (Ag/AU) Returns on the Ides of March
March 15, 2019

Good Friday Morning Folks,   

        Welcome to the early Morning Reversal where Gold turned on the shorts the very next day with the price now above the ($1,300) Maginot line at $1,303.20, up $8.10 and with the usual, close to the high of $1,304.30 with a low at $1,293.70. Silver is leading the charge (ok, barely) with its trade at $15.36, up 19 cents and only 3 cents off its high with a low at $15.165. It’s still NOT about the Dollar or our economic conditions or if it is, then the Algos are in some sort of funk with the US$’s trade at 96.675, down only 9.4 points with a low at 96.585 and the high at 96.775. All of this activity was done around 5 am pst and still before the Comex open. The Venezuelan calculations for Gold’s price now shows a value at 13,015.71 Bolivar, regaining some 51.93 overnight with Silver’s price now at 153.408, et tu (apropos for today’s Ide’s of March) regaining 1.198 Bolivar.    

      The March Silver Delivery Cycle carries on with the count now at 75 demands for physical with Zero Volume up on the board so far this morning, proving a drop of 122 contracts being settled out somewhere between here and that City in Chaos, England. At least the Overall Open Interest is proving something as the count lost another 1,240 contracts during yesterday’s pump and dump scheme giving us a total count of 187,171 Overnighters still in trade.    

      There are many approaches to Pumping and Dumping, one way to go is to remove a batch of short positions just before the closing count and then re-enter these positions during the next day’s trades (pumping and dumping) but then clear out more contracts just before the closing count is done again. This would also explain the High Volume count James Mc, from Le Metro Pole Café fame, talks about during the sleeping period the moment COMEX opens. I’m not saying this is happening, I’m just saying there are many possibilities which we will solve in time as the Ides of March moves on.

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Silver Is Hated By The Empire As Much As The Millennial Falcon
March 14, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is down this morning with the trade doing exactly the opposite of what it should, with the price now at $1,298, once again below that ($1,300) Maginot line with the London Low right there at $1,295.70 with the high to beat (and it will in time) at $1,310.30. Silver is equally punished for being part of the global economic barometer that works regardless of the game with its trade at $15.24, down 21.6 cents and, of course, right beside the low of $15.21 and the high at $15.47. None of this activity is about the US Dollar or our nation’s weakness within the arena of economics and finance, the Dollar’s value is up 25.3 points, just because of Britain, with the value pegged at 96.765, close to the high at 96.805 with the low that needs to drop a hell of a lot more at 96.475. Of course, all this had to be done while we sleep and while Britain ignores its voters.

      Our Venezuelan example of too much printed fiat is showing Gold’s conversion price at 12,963.78 Bolivar, taking back about 87.89 Bolivar from yesterday’s huge gains with Silver now at 152.210 losing even more than it gained yesterday now totaling a loss of 2.546 Bolivar overnight. No matter what currency Silver is calculated under, it is equally as hated by the Empire as much as the Millennial Falcon has been in the Star Wars movies over all these decades. One thing for certain, Silver and Gold will never go away because they are real and the biggest pain in the ass for the failing fiat empire.   

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Damn right something went wrong…finally something that’s not fake news!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q drops Lisa Page + Spotlight Brexit
March 13, 2019

Great and Wonderful Hump Day Morning Folks,

         We are seeing a rare follow thru day today as Gold seems to be adding some more value with the trade at $1,306.80 up $8.70 closer to the high at $1,309.40 than the low of $1,300.60. Silver is following but still adding value with the trade at $15.495, up 8.2 cents inside a trading range between $15.55 and $15.435. The US Dollar is once again stagnant with its value pegged at 96.815 down 7.9 points and close to the low at 96.795 with the high at 96.985, all this was done a bit after 5 am pst, because of all the windows updates. Venezuelan Gold is now priced at 13,051.67 adding a humongous 99.88 Bolivar in value overnight with Silver now priced at 154.756 adding .699 Bolivar.    

     March Silver’s Delivery Demands remain constant with the requests for physical standing at 417 contracts with a Volume of 2 up on the board so far this morning. Silver’s Overall Open Interest dropped a bit more during yesterday’s activities with the count now at 189,878 Overnighters proving another 1,075 obligations left the trade as the market went higher. Normally this would indicate shorts exiting the trade, but with Algo’s? Who really knows anymore?

           Yesterday was rather enlightening when Q dropped the note about the Lisa Page Testimony being released for all to see and discuss giving us a much deeper view into who/what/why/where was going on while the Tarmac Meeting, Hillary Clinton, and those inside the upper levels of the “initials” management approached the problem of an insider not making it into office under their support. What was being discussed behind the scenes will make things far more interesting in the future because we have yet to discuss (in depth) Britain’s involvement. No point in going there right now because Teresa May is demanding spotlight time with her Brexit deal (being) crushed by MPs AGAIN meaning we’re no nearer to quitting EU after 993 days. Proving the point that politicians have no purpose what so ever but to obstruct, delay, and phuck shit up (very very familiar).

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