Posts Categorized: In The News

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You need to understand that it is impossible for “official statistics” to pull strongly in any direction, that to some degree is not be reflected in Mr. Williams’ work. That is a contraction in logic. Since what William does is accounting, using the early statistical models of the 70’s versus today’s revised and remodeled formulas, which seem to be constructed never to show anything but a boom of sorts. Between algos of all sorts and phony figures there is no market anymore. There is a casino where the odds only stack the house, and the individual investor has been ground to death. Prices are virtual and value is questionable or irrelevant.

– Troubled Economic Reporting in the Month or Two Ahead
– Benchmark-Revised Patterns of GDP Economic Activity Should Show a Softer 2007 Peak, a Deeper Collapse into 2009 and a Less-Robust Recovery, with Downgraded Growth in 2015 to 2017
– U.S. Trade-Balance Benchmark Revisions Indicated a Slower Economy and a Deeper Real Merchandise Trade Deficit than Before
– April Nominal Balance of Payments Deficit Improved in April 2018
– Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continued to Tighten, as Real Household Debt Contracted in First-Quarter 2018, while Slowing Annual Growth in Real Consumer Credit Intensified Sharply in April 2018

“No. 954: May 2018 Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revisions”

www.shadowstats.com

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr Williams shares with us:

– Massive Inconsistencies Arise in the Headline Household-Survey Numbers Due to Severity of Great-Recession Increase in Discouraged and Displaced Workers
– Despite Historically-Low Unemployment Rates, the Number of Discouraged Workers and those Wanting a Job Are on the Rise
– May 2018 Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio, Which Are Traditional Measures of Labor-Market Health, Remained Consistent with Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High of 10% than a Record Low of 3.8%; Headline Circumstance Could be Supporting a Further 11.1 Million Employed
– May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8% (3.75%), Lowest Rate Since April 2000, at the First Decimal Point, at a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low, at the Second Decimal Point; Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
– On Top of U.3, May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
– May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
– Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Increased Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

“No. 953-B: May 2018 Employment and Unemployment, April Construction Spending”

www.shadowstat.com

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

“It’s not only Hawaii and Guatamala where volcanos are erupting.”
Can’t get dollars and seeking an alternative currency? Gold is the ultimate alternative to currency. This is another case of the unexpected side effect of a combination of repatriation of dollar for tax advantage, plus the present over much spending by the US government with a promise of more and more of the same. Now add to this the Fed’s untimely desire to shrink the balance sheet, plus the follow the leader syndrome of leading central banks. This is pulling on a rubber band that, when it breaks, will be a sound hear all through globalism certain to lift gold up and out of the present doldrums. When it becomes obvious to my dogs that fiat paper has no virtue in the preservation of hard earned wealth, with the Petro dollar support vanishing the currency market will like all others simply become intolerable. Titanic forces pulling in every direction with no capable financial director is a formula for back to basics. Gold is the foundational element to the pyramid of paper volcanos that all sovereigns have built.
Europe Running Out Of Dollars As US Coaxes Companies To Bring Money Home
March 26, 2018
The European inter-bank market is going through the biggest shortage of US-dollar liquidity in nearly nine years. According to analysts, US tax reform may be behind the largest deficit since the financial crisis.

As the Federal Reserve took a more hardline position towards the US monetary policy, LIBOR, a benchmark rate tied to finance products and debts of over $350 trillion, soared to the highest level in over eight years. Current unsecured dollar loans for the last three months are forcing European banks pay 2.2 percent in annual interest, according to financial news website Finanz.ru.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

As we have warned, tightening liquidity will lead to a heart attack in the credit markets…and EVERYTHING runs on credit!

Central Banker Observes Sudden “Evaporation” Of Dollar Funding, Warns Of Global Turmoil
June 5, 2018

Last October, just as the Fed started shrinking its balance sheet, we published yet another article on what is arguably the biggest threat to not only risk assets, but also the global economy: “The Dollar Funding Shortage: It Never Went Away And It’s Starting To Get Worse Again.”

While hardly a novel problem, we first discussed the return of the dollar funding shortage in March 2015, the fact that global stocks kept rising, and that overall funding conditions remained relatively loose keeping the global economy well-lubricated, prevented said dollar funding shortage from becoming a major concern to policymakers, despite occasional recent hiccups such as the Libor-OIS spread blow out, which both we and Citi explained w as a symptom of the creeping shortage of the world’s reserve currency.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…yes, they certainly are “progressive”!

Now It’s Against The Law In California To Shower And Do Laundry On The Same Day

June 3, 2018

Governor Jerry Brown is retiring but not before he passes a few draconian laws as parting gifts for California. Two bills were signed into law on Thursday of last week to “help California be better prepared for future droughts and the effects of climate change.”

The mandatory water conservation standards will be permanent, according to their wording, and not just for use in times of crisis. To make a long story short, now that these bills are law, it’s illegal to take a shower and do a load of laundry in the same day because you’ll exceed your “ration.”

Here’s the wording of the new laws.

Senate Bill 606 establishes a “governing body” to oversee all water suppliers, both private and public and will require extensive paperwork from those utility companies.

Assembly Bill 1668 is where it gets personal.  This establishes limits on indoor water usage for every person in California and the amount allowed will decrease even further over the next 12 years.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

As winter is over and summer upon us, we can sense snowflakes all over the land melting with this news!

Justices Side With Colorado Baker On Same-Sex Wedding Cake

June 4, 2018

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court ruled Monday for a Colorado baker who wouldn’t make a wedding cake for a same-sex couple in a limited decision that leaves for another day the larger issue of whether a business can invoke religious objections to refuse service to gay and lesbian people.

The justices’ decision turned on what the court described as anti-religious bias on the Colorado Civil Rights Commission when it ruled against baker Jack Phillips. The justices voted 7-2 that the commission violated Phillips’ rights under the First Amendment.

Harry Wedding CakeMeghan Wedding CakeMarkle Wedding CakeRecipe For Royal Wedding CakeKate Middleton Wedding Cake

The case had been eagerly anticipated as, variously, a potentially strong statement about the rights of LGBT people or the court’s first ruling carving out exceptions to an anti-discrimination law. In the end, the decision was modest enough to attract the votes of liberal and conservative justices on a subject that had the potential for sharp division.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

What the heck did you think would happen? SUCKERS!

Facebook Gave Device Makers Deep Access to Data on Users and Friends
June 3, 2018

As Facebook sought to become the world’s dominant social media service, it struck agreements allowing phone and other device-makers access to vast amounts of its users’ personal information.

Facebook has reached data-sharing partnerships with at least 60 device-makers — including Apple, Amazon, BlackBerry, Microsoft and Samsung — during the last decade, starting before Facebook apps were widely available on smartphones, company officials said. The deals, most of which remain in effect, allowed Facebook to expand its reach and let device-makers offer customers popular features of the social network, such as messaging, “like” buttons and address books.

But the partnerships, whose scope has not previously been reported, raise concerns about the company’s privacy protections and compliance with a 2011 consent decree with the Federal Trade Commission. Facebook allowed the device companies access to the data of users’ friends without their explicit consent, even after declaring that it would no longer share such information with outsiders. Some device-makers could retrieve personal information even from users’ friends who believed they had barred any sharing, The New York Times found.

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Turkey

Turkey, perhaps better than anywhere else, illustrates the broad role gold can play in modern society. Gold is embedded in Turkish life: merchants pioneered the use of gold coins in ancient Lydia, and today gold plays an important and innovative role in Turkey’s economy.

Turkey’s relationship with gold is underpinned by a deep cultural heritage and it plays an important role in weddings and other aspects of religious life. In the jewellery industry it is both a medium of exchange and a unit of account: in the Grand Bazaar – the heart of Turkey’s gold market – rents are often priced in gold. There is a strong economic incentive to own gold too. Generations of Turkish savers have turned to gold as an effective hedge against the ravages of inflation and currency weakness.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams shares again with us.

– Federal Reserve Has Pushed Real Annual Money Supply Growth Down to Levels That Threaten an Intensifying, “New” Economic Contraction
– Annual Growth Weakened Sharply for All Money Supply Measures in May 2018, Along with Continued Monthly and Annual Contractions in the Monetary Base
– May Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High Than a Record Low
– Headline May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8%, Lowest Level Since October 2000, at the First Decimal Point
– May U.3 (Second Decimal Point) Hit a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low of 3.75%, Down from 3.93% in April, Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
– May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, the Lowest Since October 2000
– The May ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Lowest Since September 2009, Declining on Top of U.6 but Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
– May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
– Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Surging Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

“No. 953-A: May 2018 Monetary Conditions, Labor Numbers, April Construction Spending”

www.shadowstats.com

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

When you think Reset, think about this.

Computer Engineers Now Make Up A Quarter Of Goldman Sachs’ Workforce
April 30, 2018

Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon said the bank now employs thousands of engineers in its effort to stay on the cutting edge of financial technology.

Keeping up in modern finance “requires a lot of investment,” said Solomon, president and next in line to be CEO at the firm, from the Milken Global Investment Conference on Monday. Companies such as Goldman need to answer questions like “how to hold on to your legacy businesses but create an environment that’s conducive” to innovation, he added.

The chief operating officer added that Goldman Sachs has hired about 9,000 engineers to help ensure that the bank keeps up with peers in the age of modern banking. For a company with just over 36,000 employees, the bank’s influx of computer engineers now represents approximately 25 percent of its entire workforce.

“Ours is a business of information … pattern recognition and historical context are important,” he explained, saying that it’s important to the company’s success that it continues to hire about 2,000 people fresh out of school each year.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Management of Perspective (MOPE) first defined here a decade ago, has longer legs than anyone would have anticipated. However, as a product of economic lies, headline algorithms and the communication revolution, it’s time is running out. The sign of the forthcoming reversal will be a series of flash crashes, with limited flash recovers in terms of percentages lost not fully regained.

Gold will be determined in the opposite profile.

The fact that Williams’ work is the antithesis of MSM is the major tell.

Logically they should at least have a minor coincidence, not fiercely in opposition of this direction.

Our President might even be fooled by the recent golden years of the geeks.

– Private Labor Surveying Showed Retrenchment in May 2018
– Benchmarked Retail Sales Showed Fundamentally-Weakened Growth
– Contracting Consumer Goods and Housing Elements in the GDP Reflect Mounting Liquidity Stresses, Amidst Faltering Consumer Optimism
– First-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Slowed to a Revised 2.17% (Previously 2.32%), Down from 2.89% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
– First-Quarter 2018 Real Trade Deficit Widened in Revision, Weakening Revised Headline GDP Growth by 0.12% (-0.12%)
– Downwardly-Revised Inventory Growth Weakened Revised GDP by 0.29% (-0.29%)
– Upwardly-Revised Gain in the Nebulous “Intellectual Properties” Category of Fixed Investment Boosted Revised GDP Growth by 0.29%
– Initial Growth in First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Purported GDP-Equivalent, Increased to 2.80% from an Upwardly-Revised 1.05% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
– Initial Growth in Gross National Product (GNP), the Broadest National Income Measure, Dropped to 2.00% from 2.71% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
– Better-Quality Economic Measures Show Continuing Economic Non-Expansion

“No. 952: GDP, GNP and GDI, Private Labor Surveying, Retail Sales Overhaul”
www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

So Americans on the whole are not as stupid as the liars believed?  Don’t get me wrong, Fox news is not gospel either but it is far closer to reality…

CNN Audience Plunges 25% As Fox News Dominates Prime Time
May 31, 2018

In a new TV ratings report published Wednesday by Nielsen Media Research, Fox News Channel continues to reign supreme in the cable news wars, while CNN’s primetime audience has collapsed by a shocking 25%.

” Fox News extended its run of consecutive months at number one to a staggering 197, while building hitting another impressive milestone: Fox News has now beaten every other network in basic cable for 23 months straight, based on total day ratings, with an average total day audience in May of 1.4 million viewers,” said Forbes.

“In prime time, Fox News destroyed its competition, with an average total audience of 2.381 million viewers, compared to MSNBC’s 1.384 million and CNN’s 835,000. Among viewers 25-54, the group most coveted by advertisers, Fox News shook off a challenge in recent months from MSNBC to claim a clear victory: 461,000 viewers, well ahead of MSNBC (329,000) and CNN (265,000).”

Nielsen reported that Fox News secured an impressive ten of the top fifteen shows in all of the cable news, with Fox News’ Sean Hannity finishing in the top most-watched cable news show in May. Aside from ESPN and the NBA playoffs, Hannity had more viewers than any other show on cable.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

He must be smiling ear to ear?

Soros Sees New Global Financial Crisis Brewing, EU Under Threat
May 29, 2018

A surging dollar and a capital flight from emerging markets may lead to another “major” financial crisis, investor George Soros said, warning the European Union that it’s facing an imminent existential threat.

The “termination” of the nuclear deal with Iran and the “destruction” of the transatlantic alliance between the EU and the U.S. are “bound to have a negative effect on the European economy and cause other dislocations,” including a devaluing of emerging-market currencies, Soros said in a speech in Paris on Tuesday. “We may be heading for another major financial crisis.”

The stark warning from the billionaire money manager comes as Italian bond yields have jumped to multi-year highs and major emerging economies including Turkey and Argentina are struggling to contain the fallout from runaway inflation. Soros, who has been the object of ire by the government of his native Hungary, saved his gloomiest outlook for the EU.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

A very interesting chart!

Trillions Of Reasons Why A ‘Huge Storm’ May Be Looming For Investors, In One Chart
May 30, 2018

Brad Lamensdorf, manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF HDGE, -0.86% warns this market could be about to get “nasty” for the bulls.

“How much credit is out there, borrowed against stock portfolios? Trillions of dollars,” Lamensdorf said in a report co-written with John Del Vecchio. “As interest rates creep up and more portfolios have been used to finance asset purchases, a huge storm can be created if stocks and bonds take even a minor dip.”

As the old saying goes, you can always buy a boat, but you can’t always sell one. “Shedding assets when everyone else is feeling pain leads to terrible deals for the seller,” Lamensdorf wrote, adding that we may be reaching a tipping point.

Take a look at this chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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