Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is only one kind of HONEST MONEY and that is GOLD.

Gold has no liability attached to it.

Gold has no hidden agenda.

Gold is universally accepted.

Gold is a time tested and proven storehouse of value.

Gold by being a proven storehouse of value is a reliable measure of value.

Paper currencies have never survived the test of time.

Paper currencies have always had a hidden agenda inherent in central banks.

Paper currency has a poor record as always acceptable, as a storehouse of value, and as a measure of value.

Good Money always forces out Bad. This is "Gresham’s Law."

So it has always been, so it will always be.

Why Can’t We Have Honest Money?
By Greg Hunter 12/07/08

Back in the late 60’s and early 70’s prime interest rates averaged 6 or 7 percent. Back before 1971 it was possible to save money at a reasonable guaranteed rate of return and easily keep ahead of what little inflation there was in the U.S. economy. That was the beauty of honest money that held its value and paid a real rate of return. In 1971 all that changed when President Richard Nixon took the country off the gold standard and went to a total fiat currency. A few years later the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) was sign into law and that made possible the 401K plan. It allowed people to save in a brand new way largely through the stock market. The stock market is an invaluable tool of capitalism. It is how many companies raise capital and create jobs and prosperity. But what most people do not realize is a 401K is not a savings plan but an investing plan. When you save money, you put it away and get a guaranteed return. In an investment plan the money is put away but not guaranteed. Most people I know do not really understand their 401K plan. Folks are repeatedly told “invest for the long term.” They are also told there is really no other way to save for the future because if you simply save your money inflation will eat up your returns. By and large, working people are pushed into 401K’s. In the right business cycle with the right demographics (as in lots of baby boomers investing in stocks at the same time such as the 80’s and 90’s when business and inflation was stable) the 401K is a not a bad deal especially when you consider that companies often match or contribute funds to make the investment plan advantageous to participants. But in the wrong part of the business cycle (aging baby boomer population and big government bail outs of every big bank) the 401K can provide some gut wrenching lessons about “investing.” People are painfully finding out with every statement that these plans have not been such a good “long term” investment deal. The S&P 500 is back at levels not seen since 1998. And that doesn’t really account for companies whose share prices have been wiped out or bankrupted. A few examples spring to mind such as AIG, WaMu, Wachovia, Bear Stearns, GM, Ford, Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, Enron and World Com. Also, factor in a nearly 30 percent drop in the U.S. Dollar Index and how are people in 401K’s making money for retirement? The short answer: They are not!!! If you would have simply invested in money markets (and taken the company match) back in 1998 with your 401K you would have been hit with inflation but at least you would have a positive nominal return. Most people did take that route. Now, to help fund the multi trillion dollar bailout of Wall Street, the Fed has announced a new policy of “Quantitative Easing.” That means “printing money” to us simple folk. So getting any kind of return on cash will be impossible to do because the government will be printing it faster that you or anyone else can save it. Nobel Peace Prize winner Milton Friedman said it best, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Printing lots of fiat currency is going to produce an ugly phenomenon for most people. I see a continuing freak show of bailout and default. If you are an investor then the stock market and all its risks and rewards are for you but if you are a saver then maybe you should have other options. Wouldn’t it be easier for most people to save if we just had honest money? Someday honest money will be necessary for the county and our citizens to survive.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is a TV advertisement that says "Don’t wait to buy gold, buy gold and wait."

Malaysia wants OIC countries to reconsider gold Dinar for trade
Bernama
KUALA LUMPUR, SAT: Malaysia wants Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) member countries to reconsider the use of the gold dinar for trade, especially with uncertainties in the international currency market.

In stating this today, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said Malaysia would attempt to hold discussions with the OIC countries so that the issue of using the gold dinar could be studied indepth.

“At this time when the currency market is uncertain and challenging, maybe it will be good for the OIC countries to look again at the role of the gold dinnar in increasing trade among members,” he told reporters here today.

Earlier he officiated the opening of Wisma Yayasan Ekonomi Sejagat here.
Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad proposed the use of the gold dinar in global trade in 2002.

Nor Mohamed said with the challenging economic conditions and weaknesses in the financial system, the use of the gold dinar could be reconsidered.

More…

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is our Friday surprise – a busted bank.

Georgia bank closed in 23rd failure of year
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:36 p.m. EST Dec. 5, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — First Georgia Community Bank was closed by regulators Friday, marking the 23rd bank failure of the year amid the ongoing financial crisis.

The closure also represents the fourth so far this year in the Atlanta area.

The four branches of Jackson, Ga.-based First Georgia will re-open Saturday as United Bank, which has assumed First Georgia’s deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in a statement.

United Bank agreed to assume the deposits for a 0.811 premium, the FDIC said, and it will purchase roughly $60.6 million of First Georgia’s assets.

As of Nov. 7, First Georgia had $237.5 million in assets and $197.4 million in deposits, the FDIC said.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Every major employer everywhere will be bailed out as the Obama Fiscal Stimulation Package provides the fuse to light Quantitative Easing.

Leaders in Congress Agree on Auto Bailout Plan
The New York Times
Friday, December 5, 2008 — 8:33 PM ET

Details were not immediately available but senior aides said that the bailout would include billions in short-term loans.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Note the recreation facilities for our paper tigers, the Hedge Fund Managers.

They should have arrested the Hedge Fund Managers.

Manhattan madam gets probation
The Associated Press
11:30 AM EST, December 5, 2008

A Manhattan madam who ran three escort services that employed $900-an-hour hookers has been sentenced after pleading guilty to promoting prostitution.

Kristin Davis was sentenced Thursday to the three months in jail she has already served, plus five years’ probation.

Davis was arrested in March at her apartment. Police said her client book contained the names of lawyers, actors, sports stars and hedge-fund managers.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is an excellent development for the entire African Continent.

Removal of Mugabe would establish for the first time that a league of nations taking action to remove a cancer from the continent can be successful. This action would transmit a strong new message to those living in the past history of Africa.

Leaders like President Jakaya Kikwete are on the ascendancy.

Africa is on the move.

Go Mugabe or face arrest – Tutu

Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe must resign or be sent to The Hague for the "gross violations" he has committed, Archbishop Desmond Tutu has said.

The Nobel Prize winner also told Dutch television that Mr Mugabe should be removed by force if he refuses to go.

On Thursday, Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga said African governments should oust Zimbabwe’s leader.

Archbishop Tutu said Mr Mugabe had ruined "a wonderful country", turning a "bread-basket" into a "basket case".

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also repeated US calls for Mr Mugabe to go, saying a "sham election" has been followed by a "sham process of power-sharing talks".

Zimbabwe has declared a national emergency over the cholera outbreak, which has killed at least 565 people – the most deadly in the country’s history.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

If you want to see the real numbers consider a subscription to www.shadowstats.com

November Jobs Plummet 732,000 Net of Revisions, Down 873,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias

– Official Recession Start Is Late, As Usual Required Reserves Surge Anew

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As Trader Dan said, good riddance to this rotten garbage.

D.E. Shaw, Farallon Restrict Withdrawals as Fund Freeze Deepens
By Saijel Kishan and Katherine Burton

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — D.E. Shaw & Co. LP, the investment firm run by David Shaw, and Farallon Capital Management LLC limited withdrawals by clients, joining more than 80 hedge-fund managers to impose restrictions in the past two months.

D.E. Shaw, which oversees $36 billion, capped redemptions from its Composite and Oculus funds, said two people familiar with the New York-based company. Farallon, a $30 billion firm based in San Francisco, did the same with its biggest fund after investors asked to get back more than 25 percent of their money.

The firms are two of the biggest to block withdrawals, known as putting up gates, so they aren’t forced to liquidate investments at distressed prices to raise cash. New York-based Fortress Investment Group LLC said yesterday it froze an $8 billion fund after getting redemption requests for 40 percent of its assets. Tudor Investment Corp., the Greenwich, Connecticut, firm run by Paul Tudor Jones, locked the $10 billion BVI Global fund last week ahead of plans to split the fund into two.

“There’s no longer the stigma associated with putting up gates or suspending redemptions as it was before this crisis,” said Jaeson Dubrovay, head of the $19 billion hedge-fund group at consulting firm NEPC LLC in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “It’s actually being encouraged by some large institutions as a way to protect longer-term investors from those who panic and redeem.”

Darcy Bradbury, a spokeswoman for D.E. Shaw, and Steve Bruce, a Farallon spokesman, declined to comment.

Industry assets peaked at $1.9 trillion in June, data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. show. Investment losses and withdrawals may shrink that amount by 45 percent by the end of this month, according to estimates by analysts at Morgan Stanley.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What goes around comes around.

Fortress suspends redemptions as investors seek to pull $3.5 billion
Miles Costello
December 4, 2008

Fortress, the New York-listed hedge fund, became the latest victim of the market crunch last night as it suspended redemptions on four of its flagship Drawbridge funds after investors moved to pull $3.5 billion (£2.4 billion) – almost half the funds’ assets.

Shares in Fortress, one of the few listed hedge funds, lost more than 25 per cent as it said that redemptions meant the assets managed by the four funds would fall to $3.65 billion by January.

Wes Edens, Fortress’s co-founder and chief executive, has already told shareholders that investors were preparing to redeem capital as they seek safer-haven assets to escape the hedge fund rout. Despite this, yesterday’s alert sent shares as low as $1.71 in early trading before they closed at $1.87.

At the end of September, Fortress was one of the world’s biggest hedge fund managers, with assets under management of $34.3 billion. Its latest decision underscores how wide-reaching the hit on the industry has become. Fortress said that its move was temporary but gave no date for unfreezing the funds.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The deluge of printed money and massive fiscal stimulation in the trillions by the incoming US Administration is unavoidable.

Record number of Americans using food stamps: report
Wed Dec 3, 2008 6:22pm EST
By Roberta Rampton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Food stamps, the main U.S. antihunger program which helps the needy buy food, set a record in September as more than 31.5 million Americans used the program — up 17 percent from a year ago, according to government data.

The number of people using food stamps in September surpassed the previous peak of 29.85 million seen in November 2005 when victims of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma received emergency benefits, said Jean Daniel of the USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service.

September’s tally — the latest month available — was also boosted by hurricane and flood aid, Daniel said on Wednesday.

But anti-hunger groups said the economic downturn is the main reason behind the higher figures.

"It’s a disturbing trend," said Ellen Vollinger, legal director with the Food Research and Action Center. She said she expects more people will turn to food stamps as unemployment figures rise and the economy remains weak.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

We live in a dangerous world with major social and economic consequences.

Report: Israel Preparing to Strike Iran Without U.S. Consent
Thursday, December 04, 2008

Israel is drawing up plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and is prepared to launch a strike without backing from the U.S., an Israeli newspaper reported Thursday.

Officials in the Israeli Defense Ministry told The Jerusalem Postthat while they prefer to act in consultation with the U.S., they are preparing plans that would allow them to act alone.

"It is always better to coordinate," a senior Defense Ministry official told the newspaper. "But we are also preparing options that do not include coordination."

It would be difficult, but not impossible, to launch a strike againstIran without permission from the U.S., as the American Air Force controls the Iraqi airspace Israel’s jets would have to enter on a bombing mission.

"There are a wide range of risks one takes when embarking on such an operation," a senior Israeli official told the Post.

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

You think the bailed out financial entities are viable businesses in the face of current and future circumstances?

No pleading was required by the good ole boys at the banks and brokerage houses. They were not asked to surrender their first born.

In that sense with the number of job involved in this it is good for motors.

Standing down would be a better approach than begging.

The politicos will panic when they find out the bankruptcy papers have already been written and would have been utilized if it had been a standoff.

What is good for the financial geeks is good for lousy manager’s gander.

GM, Chrysler considering bankruptcy to get bailout report
Thu Dec 4, 2008 8:06am EST reuters

(Reuters) – General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC are considering accepting a pre-arranged bankruptcy as the last-resort price of getting a multi-billion dollar government bailout, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with internal discussions.

In response to automakers’ bailout plea, staff for three members of Congress have asked restructuring experts if a pre-arranged bankruptcy — negotiated with workers, creditors and lenders — could be used to reorganize the sector without liquidation, Bloomberg said.

General Motors and Chrysler could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters.

Industry executives and analysts say the immediate carnage from a bankruptcy of General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co or Chrysler would spread throughout an industry that is bleeding cash in a global slowdown.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Another tidbit from Alf Fields:

Commentary From Alf Fields:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $700 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

We have already blown through waves one and two. Wave three is projecting out to $3500 and wave 5 to $10,000 for an ounce of gold. This is the point. Last year we had a $400 billion deficit. Next year we will have a $2.5 trillion deficit and in the next four years a minimum of $10 trillion deficit. It is not hard now to see why the price of gold would go to $10,000 per ounce.

What this means is that the Federal government will burn the house down printing dollars which will lose value at a dizzying rate. Conveniently, this unbridled printing will allow the US government to pay all its bills domestically and to foreign holdings by simply printing away debt. This will also have a massively negative impact on all our creditor nations. I would not be surprised if they ended up in far worse shape than us.

We have seen it time after time when a big debtor runs its creditors into the ground and ends up smelling like a rose. This is most likely what will happen to the US although the citizenry will also go through some real tough times.

What to do? Find those asset classes which will hold their value during this process. It sounds ridiculous, but it is that simple and you will prosper.

Elliott Wave Gold Update 23
By Alf Field Dec 2 2008 10:39AM
http://www.kitco.com/

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The source is not exactly the Financial Times, but the idea is intriguing.

DESTRUCTIVE BET HEDGING SCHEMES CONTINUE
By emsnews

Now, everyone is screaming bloody murder and there is only one solution: arrest them all!

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Comex tells us gold is easily available, like rain in the summer. The US Mint tells us that real gold is scarce.

The manipulators must be taken out to the shed.

Comrades in Golden Arms, take physical delivery.

Just say NO to these demons that inhabit all our markets. It is time to discipline Sodom and Gomorrah, the COMEX.

MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE AND AMERICAN BUFFALO BULLION COIN AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS
SUBJECT: 2008 and 2009-Dated Bullion Coin Products
November 24, 2008

With the exception of the American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins, all 2008-dated bullion coins have been depleted. Weekly allocations will continue for these two products.

The final 2008 allocation for these coins will be provided on Monday, December 15, 2008.

There will be no bullion allocations during the week of December 22, 2008.

2009-dated American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins will be made available for sale via the standard allocation process on Monday, December 29, for pricing December 30 and order pick-up on Friday, January 2, 2009.

Allocations for these products will continue until the United States Mint is able to meet demand.

The quantities of blanks that we have been able to acquire from our suppliers continue to be very limited, while demand for bullion coins remains high. As a result, it is necessary for the United States Mint to delay the launch of other bullion coins until later in 2009. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed as additional information becomes available.

Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint Bullion Coin Program.

The above mentioned coins should not be confused with the American Eagle or American Buffalo collector proof and uncirculated versions sold directly on the Mint?s website. However, these coins are also quickly becoming exhausted, as is evident from the chart of gold and platinum coins listed at U.S. Mint Collector Bullion Coin Prices, Premiums and Sales Figures.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

One way or another Pakistan will light the fuse that many of our Conservative Christian friends will see as the "End of Days." Let us hope it is not. Pakistan is the fulcrum point of the next major world explosion, as was 9/11. The make believe government of Pakistan is not the miscreant in this equation.

What is to come will be well in place by January 14th, 2011.

Could India-Pakistan conflict go nuclear?
MARTIN SCHRAM

Once again, terrorists struck, slaughtering 174 people in Mumbai in a crisis that may have been malevolently designed to blast the adversarial nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan into war.

Once again, world leaders fear that another conventional war between India and Pakistan could go nuclear — even as both governments utter all the usual assurances that they can keep their nukes under control.

Once again, world leaders need to recall the frighteningly candid words of a former Pakistan Army general who explained to me years ago how in a conventional weapons clash between India and Pakistan, even a well-intentioned, highly-trained general such as he was could inadvertently start a nuclear war. And how the initial nuclear launch would not only be responded to but would instantly escalate tenfold — a catastrophe that would not only obliterate the region but would have severe global consequences

The warning spoken by retired Brig. Gen. Feroz Khan in my interview with him in 2002 reads like a warning call today. We spoke at a time when India and Pakistan seemed headed toward yet another ground war over the disputed bucolic region of Kashmir — after Pakistan-based guerrillas of Lashkar-i-Taiba attacked India’s Parliament. Now India says last month’s Mumbai murderers were trained inside Pakistan by the same militant group, which is linked to elements of Pakistan intelligence.

"Once the conventional war breaks out, the fog of war sets in," Khan said then. "And during war you have deceptions. You have misperceptions. You have communications breakdowns. Things get heated up."

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Dear Friends,

The following are all international shippers of precious metals. I hope to have answers for you soon on costs and procedures for shipping Comex bars to Zurich Airport Free Zone depository.

Do you ever get the feeling that the Comex today is giving you the High One and the Bronx cheer?

Nobody accepts that we can act as one.

* The Brink’s Company
* Loomis, Fargo & Co.
* Dunbar Armored, Inc.
* Blackwater Worldwide
* Garda Cash Logistics
* Brink’s, Incorporated
* United Armored Services
* Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A.
* Rochester Armored Car Company, Inc.

Regards,
Jim

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Good timing?

Brazil selling 100 missiles to Pakistan

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Brazil’s defense minister says his nation is selling 100 aircraft-borne missiles to Pakistan.

Brazilian officials approved the euro85 million ($107 million) sale of the missiles, which can be installed on jets and used to take out radar installations.

Brazilian news media say Brazil’s air force negotiated the sale with Pakistan’s government. The deal needed the approval of Brazil’s trade ministry, which signed off on the deal on Tuesday.

The Brazilian arms maker Mectron will make the missiles.

Brazil has been trying to bolster its defense industry, which was the largest in the developing world 20 years ago. The industry has struggled since the end of the Cold War.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

When Pakistan blows, which it will, it will cause tremendous dislocation in the Middle East. Crude will rise from wherever it is trading by $100 in 60 days.

India demands Pakistan hand over terror suspects
Tue Dec 2, 7:16 AM
By Ramola Talwar Badam, The Associated Press

MUMBAI, India – India picked up intelligence in recent months that terrorists were plotting attacks against Mumbai targets, an official said Tuesday, as the government demanded that Islamabad hand over suspected terrorists believed living in Pakistan.

A list of about 20 people – including India’s most-wanted man – was submitted to Pakistan’s high commissioner to India on Monday night, said India’s foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee.

India has already demanded Pakistan take "strong action" against those responsible for the attacks, and the U.S. has pressured Islamabad to cooperate in the investigation. America’s chief diplomat, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, will visit India on Wednesday.

The diplomatic wrangling comes as the government faces widespread accusations of security and intelligence failures after suspected Muslim militants carried out a three-day attack across India’s financial capital, killing 172 people and wounding 239.

The only surviving attacker has told police that he and the other nine gunmen had trained for months in camps in Pakistan operated by the banned Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Are Narco States reliable sources of energy?

37 killed in Tijuana over 3 days
Toll includes 4 children and 9 decapitated men; police chief fired
The Associated Press
updated 7:27 p.m. MT, Mon., Dec. 1, 2008

TIJUANA, Mexico – At least 37 people were killed over three days in the Mexican border city of Tijuana, including four children caught in shootouts and nine men found decapitated, the state attorney general said Monday.

More than 200 people have been killed in the past month in Tijuana, where officials say rival cells of the Arellano-Felix drug cartel have been waging a bloody battle across the border from San Diego.

Tijuana’s police chief was fired Monday after the wave of violence. A statement from the office of Tijuana Mayor Jorge Ramos says Alberto Capella was replaced by his second-in-command, army Cmdr. Julian Leyzaola.

No reason was given for Capella’s abrupt dismissal.

Baja California state Attorney General Rommel Moreno said three police officers were among the nine decapitated men, whose bodies and heads were discovered in a poor Tijuana neighborhood. Their police credentials were found stuffed in their mouths.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is no doubt about the advent of Fiscal Stimulation, but you can doubt the number on the extremely low side to what is to come by June 2009.

Obama pledges to work with governors on economy

(CNN) — Plagued by rising unemployment, falling tax revenue and increased demand for state services, the nation’s governors met with President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden on Tuesday to press for federal money to ease their fiscal strain.

Obama and Biden told those at the National Governors Association meeting that the federal government needs to build a deeper relationship with the governors in order to put America on the path to long-term prosperity.

"Change is not going to come from Washington alone," Obama said.

"It’s going to come from all of you. It will come from a White House and statehouses all across the country that are working together, and that’s the kind of partnership I that I intend to forge as president of the United States," Obama said at the conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. "I hope that this is the beginning of laying that foundation."

Obama said he wants the governors to help draft his economic plan instead of just helping to implement it.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

With the cost now at $8.5 Trillion does it not seem that $700 billion is a false flag audit?

$700 billion bailout to get first audit
Government Accountability Office to deliver an oversight report to Congress on the $700 billion bailout plan.
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
December 2, 2008: 6:02 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The federal government’s $700 billion financial rescue plan will get its first official review Tuesday.

The Government Accountability Office will present Congress with a report Tuesday on the bailout’s progress and the Treasury Department’s handling of the program. It is the first of a series of reports that the GAO must submit to lawmakers on a bi-monthly basis, as one of three oversight components required by the Emergency Economic Stability Act.

The bailout has received its fair share of criticism from lawmakers and economists. Some argue that Treasury should require banks to use their capital injections for lending to other financial institutions. With the credit markets still largely frozen, Treasury had hoped the fresh capital would encourage banks to lend, but some have used bailout funds to finance purchases of other institutions instead.

Other critics of the bailout have said the bailout does not address the housing market, which most economists point to as the root of the recent economic downturn.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Look at who is Famous!

DJ MARKET TALK: Comex Gold Moving Inversely To Dollar

1625 GMT [Dow Jones] – Comex gold is modestly higher on a day when the dollar is slightly lower. Feb gold is up $2.60 to $779.40 an ounce. The metal is moving inversely to the greenback at the moment, says J.B. Slear, CEO of Fort Wealth Trading Co. He eventually looks for further gains in gold. "The printing of dollars, and the lack of ability to print gold, will send gold prices higher," he says. Technically, gold could correct downward some more first, he adds. If gold were to close below $746, it could slip to roughly $716, but Slear looks for "very strong support" around this area. "If get up to around $800 by the end of this week, it will be a bullish connotation," he adds. He describes the metal as largely "coiling" sideways since August although in a broad range. (ALS)

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is such irony in measuring the drop in credibility of US Treasuries by quoting a measure which is an OTC derivative that is of the kind that was part of the package of crap that caused all the problems in the first place.

What an economic circus is taking place. God help us all.

US Treasury 10-yr CDS hits record high
Mon, Dec 1 2008, 11:34 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) – The spread or risk premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury credit default swaps hit a record high on Monday, extending a recent trend as market participants continued to fret about the scale of the government’s financial rescue programmes.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury CDS widened to 68.4 basis points from Friday’s close of 60 basis points, according to credit data company CMA DataVision.

Five-year Treasury CDS widened to 52.5 basis points from 46 basis points at Friday’s close, it said.

(Reporting by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
((Reuters Messaging: emelia.sithole.reuters.com@reuters.net,
Email: emelia.sithole@thomsonreuters.com; +44 20 7542 6752)

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

All I can say to this is Holy S***, these guys are in a total panic and bouncing off the walls.

Treasury Should Consider 100-Year Debt, BlackRock’s Fisher Says
By Thomas R. Keene and Michael J. Moore

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc.’s Peter Fisher said the U.S. Treasury should consider selling 100-year bonds to ease the federal government’s borrowing costs as it faces a budget deficit expected to top $1 trillion.

“If you issued a 100-year bond and had principal and interest pay down smoothly over the last 50 years, you create a great borrowing device for the Treasury that would let us move this hump of borrowing over the generational retirement that’s coming up,” Fisher, managing director and co-head of fixed income at BlackRock in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

The Treasury last month tripled its estimate of planned debt sales in the final three months of the year to a record $550 billion as it attempts to fund bailouts for banks and fiscal stimulus programs to jump start economic growth. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a conference in Washington Nov. 17 that the U.S. will issue some $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury securities in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

Fisher, Treasury undersecretary from August 2001 to October 2003, eliminated 30-year bond auctions in 2001 to reduce government borrowing costs after four years of federal budget surpluses. The U.S. hasn’t been in the black since. The government revived sales of the security in February 2006.

Treasury yields have plummeted as investors have flocked to the safety of U.S. government debt during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Bonds rallied for a fourth day yesterday, sending yields on two-, 10- and 30-year debt to the lowest since the Treasury began regular sales of the securities.

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Where is the outrage!
By Greg Hunter 12/01/08

The uneven form the financial bailout has taken is really quite galling to me. The headline: Not a single bank president has been asked to step down or a single plan asked for from the big banks. Chuck Prince did leave on his own last November with a 38 million dollar pay package but I would call that "getting out while the getting was good." Since then, all the major banks in this country have been at the public Fed begging bowl. The big money has come from the many "lending" facilities such as the TAF, TSLF, PDCF and many more that have been created by the Federal Reserve. This money, experts say, is necessary to keep these institutions solvent. Has congress asked the banks for a plan make sure these insolvency problems will not happen again? Contrast that with the big 3. These companies are being asked for detailed plans for recovery before they get somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 billion dollars. It has been reported the CEO’S of the big 3 could be asked to resign as part of the deal!!! We’ve already handed out 150 billion to A I G and recently 325 billion to Citi!!! So far the financial rescue has cost a total 8.5 trillion dollars. The money by and large has gone to any banker with a sad story or stupid investment into derivatives. Today Meredith Whitney said on CNBC that all …"the big banks are going to need more capital!!!! " More Capital and NO PLAN!!!!! WHAT GIVES???? Where is the outrage!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This all gets back to OTC DERIVATIVES… THE REAL UNDERLYING PROBLEM. I am talking about securitized debt. The financial wizards of the world securitized every debt imaginable…mortgages, credit cards, car loans, student loans. You name the debt and it was wrapped up into some sort of security. It is safe to say the size of the problem is somewhere between 500 and 1000 trillion dollars depending on who you talk to. Whatever the amount is the problem is BIG, VERY VERY BIG!!!! The biggest financial problem ever in the history of the world! THERE IS NO PUBLIC MARKET FOR OTC DERIVATIVES and nobody is talking about creating one as part of a solution!!! THERE IS NO WAY THAT THIS FINANCIAL CRISIS WILL EVER BE OVER UNTIL THERE IS A FINANCIAL MARKET FOR THIS CRAP. But of course, if there is a market that would provide a "price discovery" and then we would find out this stuff is worthless or near worthless. So the powers that be are just throwing good money after bad. I think the most outrageous part of the whole story is even though the taxpayer is on the hook for several trillion dollars we do not get to know which banks are getting the money and what "assets" the banks are unloading on the government. I suspect these "assets" are probably akin to candy wrappers and toilet paper. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the reason they will not disclose this information to the public is that it would not be "helpful". THE SECRECY BEHIND ALL THIS GOVERNMENT ACTION IS OUTRAGEOUS!!!!! What in fact the powers that be are hoping for is that this money printing will "unclog" the credit markets and get things back to "normal." These toxic "securities" or derivatives can then start trading again the way they used to without a public market. No public market means trading would again be done without regulation, guarantee or standards of any kind. I say no way! We do not have a credit problem but a collateral problem and the banks do not trust the collateral. There is going to be a new "normal" and most people are not going to like what that feels and looks like. I guess then there will be OUTRAGE!!!

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Alf has been spot on now for a significant time. It might be interesting for the Elliot gang out there to study his work. For that matter, it might be interesting for everyone.

You have to understand that no chart work will tell you what the Exchange Stabilization Fund will do. Today’s action demonstrates short term limitations to TA.

Alf field’s Elliott Wave Chart of Gold Shows Gold To Be In Elliott Wave 3 Up
Monday, 22. October 2007, 21:05:09

The Elliott Wave chart of gold from the article Elliott Wave Gold Update 16 by Alf Field shows gold to be in an Elliott Wave 3 Up.

Elliott Wave Gold Update 16 by Alf Field

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The only meaningful tool left for the Fed is "Benign Neglect" of the US dollar. That means not referring to it in public addresses with glee and not softening declines via the Exchange Stabilization Fund when it tries to break down out of its recent technical money flow up trend. Basically, this means putting a muzzle on the Media Spin Team as they have no clue that a rising dollar, for any reason, is totally contra-productive to all other methods of anti-deflation employed in central bank moves. The trend in the dollar will become market related. Market related means rejoining its long term down trend.

Gold is a currency and it will be proven once again in the inverse to the dollar very soon.

Gold’s primary excuse for existence is monetary.

Gold priced at $248 reflected its monetary performance.

Gold at $1650 will be a totally monetary event.

The monetary boss spoke today and the equity market regurgitated.

You can be sure it is panic time at the Fed in which every tool, even the tools of last resort will be employed. Today was an example of just that

This headline should be changed to “Dow Plunges 680 Points As The Chairman Of The Federal Reserve Presents His Plans To Avoid An Equity Implosion.”

Dow Plunges 680 Points as Recession Is Declared

The evidence of a recession has been widespread for months: slower production, stagnant wages and hundreds of thousands of lost jobs.

But the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research, charged with making the call for the history books, waited until now to make it official — and the announcement came on a day when the American stock market fell nearly 9 percent in a single session.

The sharp declines on Wall Street — the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 679.95 points or 7.7 percent — appeared more about profit-taking than the economy. Investors have long assumed that the country was in recession, and analysts said that after last week’s gains, including the biggest five-day rally in decades, a sell-off was to be expected.

Still, Monday’s losses were striking, and they reminded investors that nothing can be predicted in today’s environment. The major indexes fell by hundreds of points from the start, led by huge declines in shares of financial firms. Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley shares all dropped nearly 20 percent. Most other major Wall Street banks were also in double-digit percentage declines.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is the understatement of the century

India warns of ‘grave setback’ to Pakistan ties

MUMBAI (AFP) — India warned on Monday that the Mumbai attacks had dealt a "grave setback" to relations with Pakistan, as the United States urged Islamabad to show "absolute" cooperation with India’s probe into the assault.

"What has happened is a grave setback to the process of normalisation of relations and the confidence-building measures with Pakistan," Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma told AFP.

Sharma said the Islamist gunmen who launched their devastating attack on India’s financial capital on Wednesday evening were "all from Pakistan" and stressed that it was time Islamabad delivered on its promise to prevent Pakistani soil being used for attacks on India.

India and Pakistan , both armed with nuclear weapons, have fought three wars and were on the brink of a fourth over a 2001 militant assault on the Indian parliament.

Pakistan has denied any involvement in the latest attacks which left more than 170 dead and threatens to derail a slow-moving peace process launched in 2004. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has urged India not to "over-react."

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Yeah sure!

Pakistan denies TV reports envoy to India summoned
Mon Dec 1, 2008 5:50pm IST

NEW DELHI, Dec 1 (Reuters) – Pakistan denied on Monday Indian TV reports its envoy to India had been summoned, an embassy official in New Delhi said.

"We have not been summoned. It was a pre-planned, routine meeting."

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