Posts Categorized: In The News

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The most powerful assume 2020 to be a strong economic period, therefore QE to Infinity – plus a shift to Fiscal Stimulation from practically nothing can be reliably anticipated.

– Reporting-Quality Issues Mount With Shutdown Catch-Up Data
– Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, With Further Downside Adjustments Pending in July 26th Benchmarking
– Industrial Production Benchmark Revision Patterns Suggested Still-Slower Fourth-Quarter and Near-Contraction First-Quarter Activity
– Contracting First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Activity Likely Follows
– Housing Sector Remains In Deep Recession, Despite Government-Shutdown Disrupted Headline Numbers
– U.S. Economy Continues to Weaken More Sharply and Quickly Than Widely Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession Triggered by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or So

“Bullet Edition No. 5”

www.shadowstats.com

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Basel III Celebrations, Serving Turkey, Brexit, And A Heaping Side Order Of Commotion…
March 29, 2019

Thank God it’s Friday Folks!    

      The Good Morning Report is brought to you by a higher price in Gold with the June contract at $1,298.30, up $2.90 and right beside the high of $1,298.70. Silver seems to be leading at present with its trade at $15.08, up 10.7 cents making the ratio 86 to 1, with the inevitable and positive sign post just ahead. Of course the high is right here at $15.085 with the low below the Maginot line at $14.95. The US Dollar is still the run to fiat with the trade sitting at 96.69, down 7.4 points and close to the low of 96.665 with the high up at 96.91. All this was done while we sleep and before Comex starts with the probability of much higher prices coming down the pipeline soon enough. Venezuela’s economic situation isn’t improving much, but their politics might be, with the price of Gold now pegged at 12,966.77 Bolivar, losing a whopping 105.87 overnight with Silver losing .948 Bolivar with its value pegged at 150.612.    

      Aprils First Notice Day is here with the Physical Demand for Silver at 706 obligations waiting for receipts with a Volume of 9 up on the board so far this morning. It’s seems the best directional indicators so far to trade Silver is the Overall Open Interest and the dropping of dollar requirements in the Margins as the shorts get encouraged to add more positions as the Overnight count for Silver jumped 3,236 contracts so far (this morning) even as the Basel III festivities begin as the unexpected “emerging” main course for their dinner wound up being Turkey with a side order of Pepto-Dismal for those who are short Turkish debt instruments. Of course the dinner guests never talk about who cooked the turkey as JP Morgan remains as quiet as a church mouse during the service.     

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The Only Thing Silver And Gold Are Waiting For, Is The Shorts To Get Stomped!
March 27, 2019

reat and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,  

     Today we have Gold barely heading higher with the trade at $1,317.30, up $2.30 near the high at $1,318.80 with the low at $1,312.20. Silver is hardly higher with the trade at $15.43, up 1/10th of a penny with its high at $15.475 and the low at $15.345. The sleep time Comex wouldn’t be labeled as such if we saw any form of real movement proving our markets have more traders than algos, but alas, even the US Dollar refuses to move with its trade at 96.21, down 1.5 points and at the low of 96.19 with the high up at 96.47. Of course all of this was done way before 5 am pst and what used to be real live trading at the Comex.    

     The Venezuelan Currency Swap now shows Gold’s inflationary price at 13,156.53 gaining 47.94 Bolivar overnight with “still stuck” Silver at 154.107, unchanged from yesterday’s count. The Argentinian Peso now has Gold priced at 55,575.54, up over 146% from the beginning of 2018 with Silver at 658.14 up 122.72% under the same time period, helping to prove what the values of precious metals can do for the individual as the currency heads to zero. Also of note is the time structure here. This is a longer duration of time allowing us 2 views at the same time. One where the currency collapses quickly (Venezuela) and one under better control (Argentina). Under the US Dollar, our precious metals can go either way, fast or slow. Regardless, the outcome will be the same, much higher prices! Also of note, Argentina has yet to cut off some zeros from its currency’s back side. That’s an unused weapon so far which will be used in the future.      

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Gold and the gold price win because of the unimaginable level of debt.

Countries must seek ECB approval to manage gold reserves: Draghi
March 28, 2019

FRANKFURT, March 28 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank needs to approve any operation in the foreign reserves of euro zone countries, including gold and large foreign currency holdings, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi said on Thursday.

“The ECB shall approve both the operations in foreign reserve assets remaining with the NCBs (national central banks)…and Member States’ transactions with their foreign exchange working balances above a certain threshold,” Draghi told two Italian members of the European Parliament.

“The purpose of this competence is to ensure consistency with the exchange rate and monetary policy of the Union.” (Reporting By Francesco Canepa)

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The Currency’s and the Precious Metals are the Crisis!
March 26, 2019

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,  

     Today Gold is being attacked because it is the barometer of the world’s economy and the money printing cartel is yelling loudly that all is well with the trade now at $1,312.50, down $10.10 and at the low of $1,312.10 with the high at $1,323. Silver is following along with its trade at $15.43, down 13.7 cents and as usual, right beside that London Bop low at $15.42 with the high at $15.56. Today London has another solution excuse, and May be only good for a day, with the US Dollar trading flat to lower with the value now pegged at 96.025. It too is trading down 4.3 points with the high at 96.115 and the low at 95.94. All this was done way before 5 am pst and the Comex Nap Time Open. In Venezuela, Gold is now pegged at 13,108.59 an ounce, losing almost all of yesterday’s gains by dropping 48.94 Bolivar with Silver losing .999 Bolivar (again a perfect measure) overnight helping to prove the point that the currency markets and the precious metals are the crisis.    

     March Silver’s Delivery Cycle is just about over with the total count still stuck at 44 Demands for Physical and with a Volume of 1 up on the board so far this morning, proving a drop of 1 with an actual count of 2 being posted yesterday before the close. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to expose the over-leveraging that apparently must be “secretly” legal since it’s always ignored by the regulators with the count now at 193,504 Overnighters, gaining 2,589 more shorts over Friday and Monday to stay the price from the buyers as we wait for more news from the Morgue Report the DOJ investigators have found in the international precious metals manipulations scheme.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Very interesting!

Federal Regulator: Wall Street Stock Trading Plunged 88.6 Percent in Q4
March 24, 2019

Pam Martens

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal regulator of national banks, which includes the largest banks on Wall Street, quietly issued its quarterly report on trading in cash instruments and derivatives on Friday. The report contained a shocker: stock (equity) trading had plunged 88.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 versus the fourth quarter of 2017 on a consolidated basis at the bank holding companies, which includes the results of their commercial and investment banks. Equally stunning, stock trading was down an even more staggering 91.7 percent from the third quarter of 2018. (See chart above from the report.)

This bombshell statistic is something that we have not heard a peep about from either the Wall Street banks on their earnings calls or the business media.

In fact, Wall Street banks have been telling business media that their trading pain in the fourth quarter came from fixed income (bond) trading. The media reports now read like something from Alice in Wonderland when compared to the OCC report.

Reuters reported on February 25, 2019 that while Wall Street banks overall did better than their European counterparts “The biggest losers, however, were the divisions that trade fixed income, currencies and commodities…However, equity trading picked up, particularly for Wall Street banks, where revenue rose 10 percent.” That statement contrasts with this statement in the OCC report: “The quarter-over-quarter decrease in trading revenue was across all instrument categories with the largest decrease due to equity trading.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

J.Johnson’s Latest.

It’s cheaper to borrow next year than right now!
March 25, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,   

      Gold gives us an early morning pre-sunrise smile with the trade up $5.10 at $1,317.40 and close to the high of $1,318.90 with a low at $1,310.60. Silver is equally as strong with its price now at $15.53 up 12.3 cents and right beside its high of $15.54 with the low at $15.385. This week’s currency activity is still all about British and American politics with the US Dollar now at 96.12, down 3.1 points after reaching a height of 96.19 before heading lower with the low to beat at 95.99. Of course all of this was done way before 5 am pst and before the Comex Openings tranquilizing dart hits our collective asses once again. Venezuela’s current Gold price is now at 13,157.53 Bolivar gaining 54.93 over the weekend with Silver’s price now at 155.106 gaining .749 Bolivar.    

      March Silver Deliveries seemed to have frozen on Friday with today’s early morning count being the same as Friday’s, 45 contracts waiting for receipts, with zero Volume up on the board. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is showing a very slight drop in OI with the count losing only 140 overnighters so far bringing the total to 190,915 obligations.   

      Another emerging market currency took a stab at going lower with the nation of Turkey now blaming JP Morgan for the Lira’s Worst Slide Since the 2018 Crash sending Gold back up to its earlier heights under the Lira, proving the emerging markets failing currencies are gaining momentum as nation after nation turns itself upside down in uncontrollable debt against its natural resources and those with the digital print controls. What else is new?   

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Can a snake eat its own tail?

Over $10 Trillion In Debt Now Has A Negative Yield
March 25, 2019

NIRP is back.

On Friday, when Germany reported disastrous mfg and service PMI prints, the 10Y German Bund finally threw in the towel, with the yield sliding back under zero for the first time in three years. When that happened, and when the 3M-10Y yield curve inverted in the US right around that time, just over $400 billion in global debt changed the sign on its yield from positive to negative.

As a result, the total notional of global negative yielding debt soared on Friday, rising above $10 trillion for the first time Since September 2017, and which according to Bloomberg has intensified “the conundrum for investors hungry for returns while fretting the brewing economic slowdown.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The bank index has crashed 10% in the 2 1/2 days of trading after the Fed meeting…wasn’t the Fed about as dovish as possible?  Washington, we have a major problem!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Runs Largest Monthly Budget Deficit On Record In February
March 22, 2019

The numbers: The federal government ran a budget deficit of $234 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported on Friday, the biggest monthly shortfall on record.

It was wider than the $215 billion recorded in February 2018, as spending rose 8% while receipts climbed 7%. Previously, the largest monthly deficit was $231.7 billion in February 2012.

The release of the February figures was later than normal due to the 35-day shutdown that ended Jan. 25.

What happened: Total spending was $401 billion in February while the government took in $167 billion.

Drivers of spending in February included agriculture and transportation programs. The Treasury said individual withheld and payroll taxes climbed 5% in the month. Refunds dropped 10% in February, a month in which the Congressional Budget Office notes the share of total refunds paid varies from year to year.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE TO INFINITY.

The Fed Has Given Up: Get Ready for More QE
March 21, 2019

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. Overall, the FOMC signaled it has made a dovish turn away from the promised normalization of monetary policy which the Fed has promised will be implemented “some day” for a decade. Although the Fed began to slowly raise rates in late 2016 — after nearly a decade of near-zero rates — the target rate never returned to even three percent, and thus remains well below what would have been a more normal rate of the sort seen prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted without commentary…
Bill

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Ready to find out what “Hot” means when combined with “Inflation”

Good and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks!

     Gold continues to go against the short traders as the push for price carries forward its momentum with Gold now at $1,311.90, up $4.60 with the high hitting $1,313.60 and the low at $1,306.50. Silver is hardly up at all with its trade at $15.455, up 1.8 cents with a high at $15.55 and the low right close to the now at $15.435. It seems that since Harvey Organ’s EFP watch of our precious metals futures transfers going to London took away all the trading activity from Comex as we expect another day of sleep once Comex Opens but for now the US Dollar is trading higher at 96.205, up 21.8 points with the high at 96.29 and the low way down at 95.695. That low occurred around 1 am pst, of course the rest of the activity has already occurred way before 5 am pst and the Comex’s (no need to be awake) Open. In Venezuela, Gold’s price is currently set at 13,102.60 Bolivar, losing 32.96 over night with Silver at 154.357, losing .999 Bolivar in value, ironically the exact measure of pure metal inside 1 ounce of real.

     March Silver’s Physical Deliver demands got met with a bunch of receipts either here or in London with the total sum dropping 56 obligations, setting today’s starting count at 45 with Zero Volume up on the board so far. The shorts are in the fight of their lives with Silver’s Over All Open Interest gaining more during yesterday’s attempted price push lower, adding an additional 431 more shorts to stay the price, while someone takes away the physicals with today’s Overall total equaling 191,055 overnighters during this weekends “Britain is sick of the MayDay Delay” as the EU supposedly accepts 2 more weeks. We know this term and the game, called Extend and Pretend, and only politicians can do it because of the closed doors they speak behind that the rest of the world is not allowed to hear.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
– The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
– The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
– The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
– Nonetheless the U.S. Economy Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
– Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
– Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
– Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

“Bullet Edition No. 4”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I’m not sure I would like to pay for my child’s tuition if they are teaching that Booker T. Washington was America’s first president?

‘American Political Thought’ Course At CU Denver Removes All White Men From Curriculum
March 22, 2019

DENVER — I can clearly recall the first day of class a few semesters ago when I eagerly began a course called “American Political Thought” at the University of Colorado, Denver.

My excitement quickly soured, however, after Professor Chad Shomura explained to the students in the room that most traditional “American Political Thought” courses are too focused on the achievements of white men.

As a consequence, he told us he had removed every single white male and their theoretical perspectives from the entire course curriculum.

This is echoed in the syllabus:

“This course aims to develop an understanding of American political life from the margins. Rather than surveying traditional figures of American political thought, it attends to historically marginalized voices at the crossings of race, gender, sexuality, and nation. It explores issues such as intersectionality, antiblack racism and the American Dream, ordinary life, borderlands and migration, public feelings, mental health, and settler colonialism. The materials we examine also exceed the usual genres of American Political Thought. They include, among other things, poems, an ethnography, academic articles, a novel, and a hacked tarot card set.”

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Our Dollar Is Going To Fall
March 21, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,  

         Gold is higher in the early morning trade report with the price now at $1,315.20, up $13.50 from the Comex close which happened before yesterday’s FOMC report with the high so far at $1,320.20 and the low at $1,312.50. Silver is up as well (not sure who is leading here Ag or Au) with the trade at $15.555, up 23.7 cents with the high at $15.65 and the low at $15.48. The US Dollar took a hit after the data release but has recovered (against Trumps weaker dollar demand) with the trade at 95.675, up 47.4 points inside a trading range between 95.705 and 95.295. Of course, all of this was done while we’re not trading and before the Comex sleepy time open. As expected, when Gold rises in the US Dollar, it rises even more in the secondary’s (emerging markets) with the Venezuelan Bolivar price at 13,135.56, gaining 99.87 Bolivar in a 24 hour period. Silver’s price gained 2.248 cents (HUGE!!!) with its price at 155.356 Bolivar. In Argentina, another country going into massive convulsions because of the exchange rate, Gold’s price before the FOMC was 53,322.03, now it’s priced at 53,730.56 gaining 408.53 Argentinian Pesos over night with Silver gaining 9.192 Argentinian Pesos at 635.484. These are very big gains brought on because of the swings caused by a major currency and not their own, wait till this hits under the US Dollar. No one’s seen anything yet!  

     The March Silver deliveries had a major jump in demand BEFORE yesterday’s FOMC data release with the count now at 101 Demands for Physical as buyers came in with needs proving a gain of only 17 contracts. However, yesterday’s Volume in March Silver totaled 94 swaps with the last purchase made at 8:57 am pst. Did someone jump in and get their requirements ahead of those already in cue? Watch Harvey’s count here because there may be some EFPS being passed over to the city in chaos or the purchases got stopped here draining more from COMEX, as less is getting pulled out of the ground globally. The Overall Open Interest in Silver is still gaining with the count now at 190,624 Overnighters proving 1,314 more shorts had to be placed in trade to stay the price from the buyers but not stopping the demands for physical at all.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is 100% true!