Posts Categorized: In The News

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J. Johnson’s Latest – The Paper Vs. Real Rock Battle Goes On!
August 5, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,  

     I sure missed a day to remark on last Friday but today makes up for it all, with Gold breaking thru to newer highs with the trade now at $1,471.00, up $13.50 after traveling to $1,473.90 with the low starting point at $1,448.80. The Tag A Long Kid is doing fine as well with Silver’s trade at $16.465, up 19.5 cents after hitting $16.59 before all that calming paper was applied with the low at $16.135. The US Dollar is now trading at 97.435, down 41.7 points and right at the low of 97.425 with the high at 97.93. All of this was done before 5am PST, the Comex open, and the London close.  

     The Emerging Markets Currency watch now has Gold trading under the Venezuelan Bolivar at 14,691.61, showing a gain of 526.34 Bolivar since Thursday’s write up with Silver at 164.444 giving us a gain of 4.544 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold pegged at 65,592.61 proving a gain of 3,443.41 Peso’s with Silver now at 734.123 Peso’s showing a gain of 32.535. Over in the lands of Turkey, Gold is now priced at 8,161.25 T-Lira, it too proving a gain of 252.27 with Silver gaining 2.0474 with its price at 91.3415 Lira. We still think these prices moves are the future moves under the primary currencies, as the paper vs. real rock battle goes on.  

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Please enjoy this video. Mother Nature is a wonderful thing, imagine what it will be like when she retakes control of markets?

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This would be hilarious if it was not so sad…not to mention scary! And how many conspiracy “theories” have turned out to be conspiracy fact? Are the fire chiefs from New York conspiracy theorists because they believe pre placed bombs were placed in the WTC buildings? Is it a conspiracy theory that some very well and high placed FBI personnel wanted a different outcome in the 2016 election and worked to “revise” who sits in the White House? I wonder which list (how many?) I am on?

Exclusive: FBI Document Warns Conspiracy Theories Are A New Domestic Terrorism Threat
August 1, 2019

The FBI for the first time has identified fringe conspiracy theories as a domestic terrorist threat, according to a previously unpublicized document obtained by Yahoo News. (Read the document below.)

The FBI intelligence bulletin from the bureau’s Phoenix field office, dated May 30, 2019, describes “conspiracy theory-driven domestic extremists,” as a growing threat, and notes that it is the first such report to do so. It lists a number of arrests, including some that haven’t been publicized, related to violent incidents motivated by fringe beliefs.

The document specifically mentions QAnon, a shadowy network that believes in a deep state conspiracy against President Trump, and Pizzagate, the theory that a pedophile ring including Clinton associates was being run out of the basement of a Washington, D.C., pizza restaurant (which didn’t actually have a basement).

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This article is about Sears, in the future you could just as easily replace the name Sears with …city of (     ), State of (     ), bank (     ), insurance company (     ) or whatever? The point is this, current promises cannot be kept and if you are relying on promises … you will be sorely disappointed!

Sears Employees’ Life Insurance Payments Could Amount To Just $135 Per Person
August 1, 2019

People who retired after spending decades working for department store Sears came together early in 2019 to protest the company’s plan to terminate their life insurance as part of its bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg.

And it seems as though they have good reason to. Benefits that once would have been worth as much as tens of thousands of dollars have been priced at just $135 by the Sears estate in a proposal to its former employees.

It’s another blow in a long line of disasters for Sears employees who have worked for – or are still working for – the company through its transition into bankruptcy. Sears filed for bankruptcy last year and sold its stores and most of its assets to the Eddie Lampert-owned ESL Investments, Inc. in the beginning of this year.

The Sears estate, responsible for settling old debts, was left behind.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This would be the math for you…

Endgame: Starting In 2024, All US Debt Issuance Will Be Used To Pay Only For Interest On Debt
July 31, 2019

hile it is common knowledge that the US budget deficit is soaring even though the US economy is allegedly growing at a brisk, mid-2% pace (and yet the Fed is about to cut rates), resulting in recurring bond trader nightmares about funding the growing twin US deficits (Budget and Current Account), what few people know is the increasingly ominous composition of this budget deficit.

As we first pointed out back in March, when looking at the US ‘income statement’, most concerning by far is that for the first four months of fiscal year 2019, interest payments on the U.S. national debt hit $221 billion, 9% more than in the same five-month period last year, with the rate of increase breathtaking (see chart below). As a reminder, according to the Treasury’s conservative budget estimates, interest on the U.S. public debt is on track to reach a record $591 billion this fiscal year, more than the entire budget deficit in FY 2014 ($483 BN) or FY 2015 ($439 BN), and equates to almost 3% of estimated GDP, the highest percentage since 2011. In fact, as of June 30, US interest had already surpassed $600 billion.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Testing the Resolute(s)
August 1, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks!  

     It looks like the Silver signal worked this time with the precious metals trading lower after the Federal Reserve’s partial ¼% rate cut with Gold’s trade at $1,418.30, down $19.50 after being dropped to $1,414.50 with the high at $1,428.60. Silver is leading the decline with its trade at $16.01, down 39.5 cents and close to the low at $15.955 and the high to beat at $16.305. The US Dollar benefited from the actions from the Fed Reserve with the Dollar’s value now at 98.64 up 38.2 points and close to the high at 98.70 with the low at 98.365 (We feel this should have gone in the opposite direction, and it will, in time). All of this activity happened way before my normal time of 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.  

     Another note here is the closing of Silver and Gold’s trades at the Comex. The precious metals get closed out a half an hour before the Federal Reserve announcements, but the US Dollar (and all other currencies) stay open for another hours’ time after the Fed posting. The closing prices between real money and fiat have a 1 ½ hour spread in which the “closing price game” is played. Which is why we see more volatile movements in Silver and Gold, the day after the Federal Reserve’s announcement.    

     Our precious metals markets were not treated well in the emerging currency markets as Gold’s price under the Venezuelan Bolivar lost 251.69 in value with the price at 14,165.27 Bolivar, with Silver losing 4.594 with its price at 159.900 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold priced at 62,149.20 A-Pesos proving a loss of 1,205.88 with Silver losing 21.362 with the price at 701.558 A-Pesos. Over in Turkey, the Lira now has Gold priced at 7,908.98 it too showing a loss of 68.09 in T-Lira value with Silver also down 1.737 with the Lira price at 89.2941.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and this is only the start!

They Said What? Here Are The 13 Nuttiest Quotes From Wednesday’s Democratic Presidential Debate
July 31, 2019

Are these really the best and brightest that the Democratic Party has to offer? It was going to take a monumental effort to top Marianne Williamson’s level of craziness on Tuesday night, but on Wednesday there were several Democratic contenders that gave it their best shot. Kirsten Gillibrand and Jay Inslee were particularly unhinged, and Joe Biden “repeatedly stumbled over numbers and phrases” during an incoherent performance that will be remembered for a long time to come. The Democrats may have more than 20 candidates running, but none of them looks like a president at this point. Perhaps that will change, or perhaps a stronger candidate will enter the race eventually, but right now Democratic strategists cannot be feeling too good about their chances of winning the 2020 election. Of course Republicans are facing some very serious challenges of their own, but at least they don’t have to worry about a powerhouse candidate on the other side.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Now rate cuts are bearish for gold? Is there any condition “they” will tell you is bullish for gold? Gold IS money and thus as Ronan Manly claims, “the ultimate asset”!

Gold the Ultimate Asset as Fed Joins Race to the Bottom in Global Rates
July 31, 2019

The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today announced a 0.25% cut in the influential US federal funds rate from a target range of 2.25% – 2.50% to a target range of 2.00% – 2.25%, a move which was closely watched and widely signaled, but which was the first such fed funds rate cut in over 10 years.

As an official interest rate which affects all other US interest rates including bank-to-bank overnight loans, the US Federal Reserve uses changes in its fed funds rate to manipulate US economic growth, but its impact is even more far-reaching, influencing as it does the relative strength of the US dollar versus other currencies, and the interest rate decisions of the world’s other major central banks.

Confirmation of the cut – officially called a policy action – came at the end of the Fed’s two-day July meeting. In the hours before the Fed announcement, Comex gold dropped a few dollars to the $1420 range and the US dollar went higher, looking very like paint taping to make the market’s reaction to the announcement more muted.

With this current rate cut, its all in the timing, and today’s cut follows a 3 year period in which Fed hiked the fed funds rate 9 times between December 2015 to December 2018 from 0.25% to 2.50%. But those hikes followed an 8 year period in which the Fed held the rate at 0.25% starting with the 2008 financial crisis right up to the end of 2015. As such, this fresh fed funds rate cut is a pivotal point in the US interest rate cycle, and has the markets in consternation over whether it will be a one off easing or the beginning of a new easing cycle.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – FOMC Unleashed Vs. The Resolute(s) Day!
July 31, 2019

Happy Hump Day Morning Folks,  

     Gold is trading higher with its value at $1,443.50, up $1.70 inside a tight trading range between the high at $1,445.40 and a low at $1,440.00. Silver is attempting to signal with its trade at $16.47, down 8.3 cents and close to the low at $16.465 with the high to beat at $16.60. The US Dollar is still holding in there with its value pegged at 97.84 up 3.1 points and close to its high at 97.885 with the low to beat at 97.755. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

     It looks like all the commotions in currencies are within the emerging markets as we observe Gold’s value under the Venezuelan Bolivar now priced at 14,416.96 putting forth a gain of 18.98 with Silver now valued at 164.494 losing .20 of a Bolivar. Gold in Argentina is now priced at 63,355.08 proving a gain of 261.76 A-Pesos with Silver now at 722.920 providing a gain of 1.257 Pesos. Gold under the Turkish Lira continues lower with its value now at 7,977.07 dropping another 36.61 T-Lira with Silver down .6579 with its price now at 91.0311.  

     Today we start the August Delivery cycle for Silver with the delivery count totaling 1,062 requests and with a Volume of 47 up on the board in the early morning inside a trading range between $16.51 and $16.46 with the last trade being the low so far. This is an increase in physical demands of 57 more 5,000 Ounce contracts on our August “First Notice Day” (even though it’s July 31st). The shorts keep piling on with Silver’s Overall Open Interest now totaling 239,266 Overnighters keeping Silver from rising any higher (until?). At the same time they seem to be attempting to rise up and surpass the record breaking OI high at 244,196 Obligations meaning we’re only 4,930 held contracts away from breaking that all time papered high! Go Team Fiat Failure! Team Failure may need a much larger short quantity than the last time just to keep Silver from doing something positive on the FOMC Unleashed Vs. The Resolute(s) day.  

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J. Johnson’s Latest – The Rate Makers Vs. Silver and Gold’s Resolutes
July 30, 2019

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,     

      December Gold continues to gain with the trade at $1,441.60, up $8.30 and right close to the high at $1,442.50 with the low at $1,434.80. The Tag A Long Kid (Silver) is “bringing up the rear” with the September trade at $16.49, inside a tight range between $16.53 and $16.425. The US Dollar continues to gain as well as it seems European traders are starting to get more and more nervous about everything these days with the Dollar trade at 97.815, up 1.9 points with the high at 97.96 and the low close by at 97.800. All of this was done way before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and before the start of the FOMC meetings.    

      Our Emerging Markets currency watch is mixed with the Venezuelan Bolivar now showing the Nobel metal valued at 14,397.98, giving the first money of all mankind an 88.89 Bolivar jump in value with Silver gaining .699 Bolivar at 164.694. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold valued at 63,093.32 giving us a 1,093.07 A-Peso jump making this a WOW gain. Silver under the same currency received only a whoopee gain totaling 1.1103 in A-Peso value with the price at 721.663. Over in Turkey, the Lira has Gold priced at 8,013.68 going in the opposite direction and losing by 54.08 T-Lira with Silver losing .7788 in value with its trade at 91.6890 T-Lira.    

      July Silver Deliveries are over, with the closing numbers gaining 34 more buy orders but without a price set with the closing count at 56 physical demands for Silver that had to get their receipts by the end of yesterday’s trade and with no trading range given during the day. Also of note the Volume from yesterday’s trade went up to 64 and yet we still have no prices given. The numbers are intentionally incomplete. If this was a spread liquidation, there should be prices given for both sides of the calendar spread. I consider this totally unacceptable because it hides the activities that are generated inside what is supposed to be real price discovery.  August Silver Deliveries are now the focus with tomorrow being the First Notice Day with the Open Interest count now at 1,005 and with a Volume of 53 up on the board with a trading range between $16.44 and $16.37. Thursday will be the starting point for the next month’s delivery system.    

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J. Johnson’s Latest – It Does Seem “The Resolutes” Are Still Holding Strong and Refuse to Budge
July 29, 2019

 Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,     

      Gold is still winning with the trade adding 50 cents to the price (it’s all good when it goes up) with the trade at $1,432.70, with the high to beat at $1,437.00 and the low close by at $1,430.20. Silver is leading with the trade at $16.42, up 2.3 cents with the high at $16.49 and the low at $16.36. Maybe I should be saying the Dollar is leading us higher this time with its trade at 97.845, up 9.4 points close to the high at 97.87 with the low at 97.64. All of this activity had to happen before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      So far this morning in the emerging markets we see no gains at all with the Venezuelan Bolivar pricing Gold at 14,309.09 giving us a 3 Bolivar drop with Silver at 163.995 Bolivar proving a loss of .999 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 62,000.25 giving us a drop of 99.52 A-Pesos with Silver pegged at 710.560 proving a loss of 5.333 A-Pesos. Over in Turkey Gold is priced at 8,067.76 T-Lira, a drop of 7.01 with Silver at 92.4617 it too losing .6153 in T-Lira value.     

      Today is the last day for July Silver deliveries with the count now showing 22 contracts still waiting for receipts for physicals and with a Volume of 1 up on the board so far this morning. However, we still have no price to attach to this one lone Volume, but we do know the closing price for Friday’s physical delivery and that is $16.325 with the OI count drop of 55. Today’s question; is the buyer going to mess up the delivery numbers again by adding more requests to buy? The next months (August) delivery count for Silver, shows an Open Interest of 1,096 and with a volume of 33 up on the board so far with Wednesday being the First Notice Day for the month’s count.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Credit is a double-edged sword!

Mapped: The Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks
July 19, 2019

By Jeff Desjardins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Below is their quote, not mine.

“The global central bank experiment with renormalization is officially over”  

For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking
July 26, 2019

The global central bank experiment with renormalization is officially over.

After roughly half the world’s central banks hiked rates at least once in 2018, the major central banks have returned to easing mode, and as the chart below shows, for the first time since 2013, not a single central bank is hiking rates.

Commenting on the violent reversal away from tightening financial conditions which emerged following the Q4 2018 selloff, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes that “The FOMC looks set to cut the funds rate next week, the ECB today sent a strong signal that action in September is likely, and China has resumed easing policy after a spring pause. With global growth running at a below-trend rate of 2¾%—down from about 4% a year ago—a synchronized tilt towards easing looks like a natural response to a weaker outlook.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

What could possibly go wrong?

The Companies With The Most Debt In America
July 26, 2019

by Wolf Richter 

The concentration of corporate debt: The top 46.

The US Justice Department today approved the merger of T-Mobile, the third largest wireless carrier and Sprint Corp., the fourth largest wireless carrier. For the merger to go forward, they will have to sell Sprint’s prepaid brands to Dish. As for the rest, whatever this does to competition and rates for wireless services, one thing is for sure: It creates another US debt monster.

T-Mobile has $37.4 billion in short-term and long-term debt; Sprint has $39.8 billion. Combined they will have $77.2 billion in debt.

This includes only debt, not other liabilities, such as accounts payable, income tax payable, accrued payroll, or the catch-all “other liabilities.” Short-term debt is due within one year and includes long-term debt that matures within one year; long-term debt is due in over one year. “Capitalized leases” – this is a big item with Amazon – are long-term debt.

After the merger, the combined T-Mobile and Sprint, with $77 billion in debts, would move up to the 9th most indebted company in the US, just ahead of Walmart and behind CVS.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Some believe the flash crash in cryptos today is because of the Libra white papers release, maybe not.  When I saw this headline I immediately thought uh oh!

IRS Sends 1000s Of “Fishing” Letters To Crypto Users
July 26, 2019

Authored by Marie Huillet via CoinTelegraph.com,

The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is sending letters to crypto investors to apparently scare them into accurately reporting their crypto-related income.  

“Taxpayers should take these letters very seriously by reviewing their tax filings and when appropriate, amend past returns and pay back taxes, interest and penalties,” IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a statement.

“The IRS is expanding our efforts involving virtual currency, including increased use of data analytics. We are focused on enforcing the law and helping taxpayers fully understand and meet their obligations.”

‘Don’t Panic’

According to a Forbes report by crypto tax attorney Tyson Cross, published on July 26, a number of Cross’s clients have received a letter “6174-A” from the IRS, threatening “future civil and criminal enforcement activity” if they fail to fully comply with reporting requirements.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Well, well, well…”truth” raring its ugly head?

New York Area Fire Commissioners Make History, Call for New 9/11 Investigation
July 27, 2019

Ted Walter

They started off by saying the Pledge of Allegiance. Ten minutes later, they were reading the text of a resolution claiming the existence of “overwhelming evidence” that “pre-planted explosives . . . caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings.”

And so it was, on July 24, 2019 — nearly 18 years after the horrific attacks that traumatized a nation and changed the world forever — the Franklin Square and Munson Fire District, which oversees a volunteer fire department serving a hamlet of 30,000 residents just outside of Queens, New York, became the first legislative body in the country to officially support a new investigation into the events of 9/11.

The resolution, drafted and introduced by Commissioner Christopher Gioia, was unanimously approved by the five commissioners. Members of the audience — including the families of fallen firefighters Thomas J. Hetzel and Robert Evans, both Franklin Square natives — joined in solemn but celebratory applause after the fifth “ay” was spoken.

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