Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is significant.

China And Russia Look To Ditch Dollar With New Payments System In Move To Avoid Sanctions
November 23, 2018

China and Russia are drafting a pact to boost the use of their national currencies in bilateral and international trade, underscoring their intent to cut their reliance on the US dollar.

The development of a new international financial payments system aims to address rising concerns over additional US sanctions and trade tariffs.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, during his visit to China earlier this month, said the two nations were discussing the launch of a new cross-border system for direct payment of trade invoices in the yuan and the rouble.

He also said discussions were under way to allow the use of China’s UnionPay credit card in Russia and Russia’s Mir card in China.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Debt kills”, you will shortly understand this concept…

Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment
November 21, 2018

It gets serious. Margin calls?

No one knows what the total leverage in the stock market is. But we know it’s huge and has surged in past years, based on the limited data we have, and from reports by various brokers about their “securities-based loans” (SBLs), and from individual fiascos when, for example, a $1.6 billion SBL to just one guy blows up. There are many ways to use leverage to fund stock holdings, including credit card loans, HELOCs, loans at the institutional level, loans by companies to its executives to buy the company’s shares, or the super-hot category of SBLs, where brokers lend to their clients. None of them are reported on an overall basis.

The only form of stock market leverage that is reported monthly is “margin debt” – the amount individual and institutional investors borrow from their brokers against their portfolios. Margin debt is subject to well-rehearsed margin calls. And apparently, they have kicked off.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Willem Middlekoop, Kyle Bass, and Luke Gromen regarding the dollar. A pretty interesting line of thought!

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Stresses Mount on Consumer Income, Credit and Wealth
– Cascading Consumer Liquidity Issues, Aggravated by Federal Reserve Tightenings, Wallop Headline Activity in Home Sales, Construction, Retail Sales and Manufacturing
– Can the GDP Be Far Behind?

“Consumer Liquidity Watch No. 5”

www.shadowstats.com

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The IMF Lagarde article is the basis of my long held and often discussed theory that there will be two resets.

The first is more of a con than a currency as the fabric of the FAKE numbers of the so-called market are revealed by the flash crash to sanity. Any fix will be accepted for a short period of time; however, it is the basic foundation of the thesis of “Free Gold” that will create the last man standing. The period of disruption is from June of 2019 going through into 2025.

I will soon take the vow of Muni which is the Indian version of silence because I have given you all the guidance you need. Now all you need is courage as the patience of job era is coming to an end.

I have clearly described to you what the first reset will look like and why it will not last.

IMF Reveals That Cryptocurrency Is The New World Order End Game
Wednesday, 21 November 2018 13:19

In a paper published last week by IMF head Christine Lagarde titled “Winds Of Change: The Case For New Digital Currency”, the IMF builds its argument for why central banks including the IMF should embrace crypto as the future of monetary policy.

As I warned last year, the shift into crypto was not at all a “revolution” against the globalists, but a con designed by the globalists in part to get liberty proponents to become unwitting salesmen for the next phase of the economic control grid. But how do they intend this end game to play out?

In 1988, The Economist, a globalist publication, “predicted” (or rather, announced) that a global currency system would be launched in the year 2018.  It is now clear that crypto and the blockchain are that system.  This system would eventually use the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket as a kind of bridge to a one world currency, which they referred to as the “Phoenix”. Though some people claim that the SDR itself is not a currency, globalists apparently disagree.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

With happy Thanksgiving.
I am invited to a vegan family dinner.

Bitcoin Price Claws Back to $4,500 But Further Losses May Lie Ahead
November 20, 2018

The bitcoin price on Tuesday nursed extensive losses of over 12 percent against the US dollar, stabbing through $5,000 as it did.

BTC/USD Intraday Analysis

The BTC/USD index is currently trading at the 4513-fiat price level after a minor jump from its intraday low at 4035-fiat. The knee-jerk reaction after a massive sell-off does not confirm a substantial bias shift. It looks more like a bear pennant formation that is likely to extend the bearish action as it overreaches its downside targets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Nothing to see here!

Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks
November 20, 2018

So what’s going on here?

In the third quarter, the “delinquency rate” on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 banks – so the delinquency rate at the 4,705 smaller banks in the US – spiked to 6.2%. This exceeds the peak during the Financial Crisis for these banks (5.9%).

The credit-card “charge-off rate” at these banks, at 7.4% in the third quarter, has now been above 7% for five quarters in a row. During the peak of the Financial Crisis, the charge-off rate for these banks was above 7% four quarters, and not in a row, with a peak of 8.9%

These numbers that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors reported Monday afternoon are like a cold shower in consumer land where debt levels are considered to be in good shape. But wait… it gets complicated.

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On Watch: Exposing Mainstream Media Lies About the Illegal Alien Invasion
November 21, 2018

In this episode of “On Watch,” Judicial Watch Director of Investigations & Research Chris Farrell joins filmmaker Ami Horowitz to discuss his recent trip to Mexico investigating the migrant caravan.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Wiping out nearly two years of “growth”…

“It Could Never Happen Again…Right?”
November 20, 2018

Is it really different this time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FANG Stocks just hit 10-month lows…

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

In Texas they call this “one drunk holding up another drunk”…

Lawmakers Consider Multibillion Bailout For Troubled Pensions, Retirees
November 20, 2018

WASHINGTON – Top lawmakers are considering a taxpayer-funded bailout for retirees who are members of certain failing pension plans, scrambling to solve a retirement crisis that threatens more than 1 million Americans.

A draft of the plan, obtained by The Washington Post, would direct the Treasury Department to spend up to $3 billion annually to subsidize payments for retirees from certain underfunded pensions.

The retirement programs are called “multiemployer” pensions, as workers from multiple companies pay into the same retirement benefit program. But many of these pensions lack the financial assets to cover the benefits they have promised retired workers, leading to a panic from retirees who were counting on the funds. These pensions have often been plagued by mismangement, inaccurate economic projections, and in some cases corporate bankruptcies.

In many cases, the companies these pensioners used to work for no longer exist or no longer participate in the retirement plan.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Again, it is all about credit. This is from Reuters, disseminated by NBC. They will say you were politely and correctly warned…

Household Debt Hit A Record High Of $13.5 Trillion Last Quarter
November 16, 2018

The total debt shouldered by Americans has hit another record high, rising to $13.5 trillion in the last quarter, while an unusual jump in student-loan delinquencies could provide another signal that the nation’s economic expansion is growing old.

Flows of student debt into serious delinquency — of 90 or more days — rose to 9.1 percent in the third quarter from 8.6 percent in the previous quarter, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

It was a reversal after a period of improvement for student debt, which totaled $1.4 trillion. Such delinquency flows have been rising on auto debt since 2012 and on credit card debt since last year, which could raise a red flag for economists.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Another polite warning.

Cramer says CEOs are telling him off the record the economy has quickly cooled
November 15, 2018

Company leaders across industries are telling Jim Cramer — off the record — that they’re worried about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, Cramer said Thursday on CNBC.

“So many CEOs have told me about how quickly things have cooled,” the “Mad Money” host said. “So many of them are baffled that we could find ourselves in this late-cycle dilemma that wasn’t supposed to occur so soon.”

Cramer has been warning investors for weeks about a manmade slowdown in the U.S. economy, fueled by the two-pronged pressures of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Trump administration’s tariffs. Now, high-profile CEOs are worried about growth slowing so drastically that it could actually hurt the economy, he said.

“There are degrees of slowdowns that, nonetheless, can cause an awful lot of havoc and cost a lot of jobs, and that’s what we’re on the verge of here,” he said. “That’s what the markets are saying. That’s what the CEOs are worried about offline.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

What could possibly go wrong?

Sounding the Alarm on Leveraged Lending
November 15, 2018

By Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, and Thomas Piontek

We warned in the most recent Global Financial Stability Report that speculative excesses in some financial markets may be approaching a threatening level. For evidence, look no further than the $1.3 trillion global market for so-called leverage loans, which has some analysts and academics sounding the alarm on a dangerous deterioration in lending standards. They have a point.

This growing segment of the financial world involves loans, usually arranged by a syndicate of banks, to companies that are heavily indebted or have weak credit ratings. These loans are called “leveraged” because the ratio of the borrower’s debt to assets or earnings significantly exceeds industry norms.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

I personally guarantee that riding a horse is therapeutic on so many levels!

Combat Veterans With PTSD Report Better Mental Health After Therapeutic Horseback Riding Intervention
October 24, 2018

The veterans felt ‘greater confidence, gratitude and hope, as well as increased patience,’ Baylor University researcher says

Media Contact: Terry Goodrich, Baylor University Media Communications, 254-644-4155

Follow Baylor Media Communications on Twitter: @BaylorUMedia

WACO, Texas (Oct. 24, 2018) — Veterans with combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder were less anxious and depressed and had an improved quality of life after an eight-week therapeutic horseback riding program, according to a Baylor University study.

“PTSD is difficult to treat. But those who went through the program reported lessening of symptoms and better mental health,” said lead author Beth A. Lanning, Ph.D., associate chair and associate professor of public health in Baylor’s Robbins College of Health and Human Sciences.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Gold being remonetized by Basel III.

Gold Re-Monetization Is Much Closer Than Many Realize
November 14, 2018

November 2018 – Author: Brandon White

Monetary policy is largely responsible for the market conditions we have today. Whether we like it or not, central planning in the capital markets will remain with us for the foreseeable future. Capital flows will be as much a function of market fundamentals as they are of policy.

This is very true for gold.

Gold was formally de-monetized in 1978 with the Jamaica Accord. It is now being re-monetized. This paper aims to answer the questions of how and why.

Serious players in the world of finance are acquiring enormous sums of physical gold. In the last quarter alone (Q3 2018), central banks added 148 metric tonnes of physical gold to their reserves.

February 2018 marked a major turning point for gold – monetary gold to be more specific – when the Swiss National Pension Fund switched out of synthetic gold derivatives into physical gold. Monetary gold is defined, in the new Basel III banking capital rules, as “physical gold held in their own vaults or in trust.”

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Look at the snow crisis in NYC.

Julian Assange, Florida, David Hockney: Your Friday Briefing
November 16, 2018

By Mark A. Walsh

Good morning.

Here’s what you need to know:

An accidental revelation about Julian Assange

The U.S. Justice Department has prepared an indictment of the WikiLeaks founder, who has been holed up in the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. The move would be a sharp escalation of Mr. Assange’s yearslong battle with the American government.

It is not clear if prosecutors have filed charges against Mr. Assange. The development came to light in an unrelated court filing “made in error,” according to Joshua Stueve, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This won’t stop for the next six years on either side.

This is going to be the one circus for all of time.

Judicial Watch Sues DOJ for Records of Investigations into the Awan Brothers, Congressional Democrat IT Scandal
November 08, 2018

(Washington, DC) Judicial Watch announced today that it filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the Justice Department for all records of communications relating to the investigation into former Democratic information technology (IT) staffers Abid Awan, Imran Awan, Jamal Awan and Hina R. Alvi (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Justice (No. 1:18-cv-02563)).

Imran Awan and his family were banned from the House computer network in February 2017 after the House’s top law enforcement officer wrote that Imran is “an ongoing and serious risk to the House of Representatives, possibly threatening the integrity of our information systems,” and that a server containing evidence had gone “missing.” The inspector general said server logs showed “unauthorized access” and procurement records were falsified.

Imran Awan was Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s top information technology aide. Most lawmakers fired Awan in February, but Wasserman Schultz kept him on until he was arrested in July, trying to board a flight for Pakistan.

Imran Awan was allowed a plea deal. He pleaded guilty to federal bank fraud but prosecutors found no evidence that Awan “violated federal law with respect to the House computer systems.”

The Judicial Watch lawsuit was filed after the FBI failed to respond adequately to two FOIA requests.

The FBI claimed it could neither confirm nor deny records related to the first request, filed on May 26, 2017, seeking:

All records related to any investigations or preliminary investigations involving former congressional IT support staffers Abid Awan, Imran Awan, Jamal Awan, and Hina R. Alvi. As part of this request, searches should of records [sic] should include, but not be limited to, the FBI automated indices, its older manual indices, and its Electronic Surveillance (ELSUR) Data Management System (EDMS), as well as cross-referenced files.

All records of communication sent to or from FBI employees, officials or contractors involving the subjects in bullet item 1.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Again, it is all about credit.

Foreign Investors Reduce Chinese Bond Holdings For The First Time Since Feb 2017: Why This Matters
November 12, 2018

Three months ago, something unprecedented happened to China’s economy: for the first time since 1998, China reported a current account deficit for the first half of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While we expounded on the full implications previously, they could be summarized as follows: greater reliance on foreign funding, a more open capital account, a weaker CNY and deeper and less manipulated capital markets.

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Macron to Trump: ‘You’re No Patriot!’
November 13, 2018

In a rebuke bordering on national insult Sunday, Emmanuel Macron retorted to Donald Trump’s calling himself a nationalist.

“Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism; nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism.”

As for Trump’s policy of “America first,” Macron trashed such atavistic thinking in this new age: “By saying we put ourselves first and the others don’t matter, we erase what a nation holds dearest, what gives it life, what makes it great and what is essential: its moral values.”

Though he is being hailed as Europe’s new anti-Trump leader who will stand up for transnationalism and globalism, Macron reveals his ignorance of America.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

We spoke of this on our weekend call.

“The Collapse Has Begun” – GE Is Now Trading Like Junk
November 13, 2018

Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.

The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers – and the generosity of its banks – now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

It’s a good thing these aren’t “investment grade assets” Mr. Minerd is talking about?!