Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Is something more, or less, important if the BIS warns of it?

Biggest Crisis Test Is Still to Come With Insolvencies, BIS Says
September 14, 2020

(Bloomberg) — Policy makers are facing the most economically challenging part of the Covid-19 crisis in avoiding the creation of “zombie” companies, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Ultra-easy monetary and fiscal support is helping companies avoid a liquidity crunch after the pandemic closed down businesses and demand collapsed. But that stance bears risks longer-term, said Claudio Borio, head of the Basel-based institution’s Monetary and Economic Department.

“There’s a delicate balance to be struck between on the one hand withdrawing it too early, which will obliviously have short-term costs in terms of economic activity, and withdrawing it too late, which will mean that it will not favor necessary structural adjustments,” he said on Monday.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

No worries though, they’ll put it all back once things return to normal!

Americans Are Raiding Retirement Savings During Coronavirus Pandemic
September 14, 2020

As households struggle to make ends meet, more Americans have been forced to halt or raid their retirement savings in this coronavirus-induced recession.

Nearly 3 in 10 people have decreased the amount of money they’re setting aside for retirement or stopped saving altogether due to the economic fallout of Covid-19, according to a FinanceBuzz survey published in August.

A large share of consumers have also pulled money out of savings.

Around 30% of retirement savers tapped their retirement accounts over the last 60 days, according to a MagnifyMoney survey published in May. Those consumers pulled out $6,757, on average.

Just over half withdrew money in order to cover expenses and 26% did so because of a job loss, according to the survey, which polled 1,239 Americans with retirement accounts.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

China is trading dollars for real stuff, shouldn’t you?

China’s Major Chess Move: This Is The Real Reason China Is Stockpiling Commodities
September 11, 2020

Within hours KWN will be releasing an audio interview with billionaire Ross Beaty, Chairman of Pan American Silver. He gave a very powerful interview about the crisis the world is facing today and what to expect from major markets, including gold and silver. Until then…

Gold, Silver, Commodities Surge

September 11 (King World News) – Alasdair Macleod, reporting from London: “Eric, you will recall the importance of 23 March, when the Fed switched to unlimited monetary inflation only days after cutting its funds rate 1% to zero. Gold rose from $1,460 to a high of $2,075 on 7 August. At the same time, base metals began to rise, and a wide range of other raw materials from lumber (+250%) to lean hogs (+73%) also rose.

The chart below puts the relationship between gold and commodities in context: it could be the most important chart of this year.

ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS OF 2020:

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S&P Commodities (Blue) vs Gold (Orange)

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Pepe Escobar with a doozy. Make sure to follow his many links within the article, some real eye openers!

From 9/11 to the Great Reset
September 10, 2020

The events of 9/11 were the foundation stone of the new millennium – ever as much indecipherable as the Mysteries of Eleusis. A year ago, for Asia Times, once again I raised a number of questions that still find no answer.

A lightning speed breakdown of the slings and arrows of outrageous (mis)fortune trespassing these two decades will certainly include the following:

The end of history. The short unipolar moment. The Pentagon’s Long War. Homeland security. The Patriot Act. Shock and Awe. The tragedy/debacle in Iraq. The 2008 financial crisis. The Arab Spring. Color revolutions. “Leading from behind.” Humanitarian imperialism.

Syria as the ultimate proxy war. The ISIS/Daesh farce. The JCPOA. Maidan. The Age of Psyops. The Age of the Algorithm. The Age of the 0.0001%.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Ya think? We went on record a few years back suggesting it was a huge mistake for President Trump to take “ownership” of the stock market. Were the market to crash between now and the election, it will not bode well for his re-election chances…

The Stock Market Is Detached From Economic Reality. A Reckoning Is Coming.
September 10, 2020

When the stock market surged last week, President Donald Trump was quick to tweet, “The Dow Jones Industrial just closed above 29,000!” The picture changed a bit after the Dow slid 800 points a few days later, largely driven by the poor performance of tech stocks, which continued after Labor Day weekend. But the stock market is a continuing obsession of his. “We have the greatest economy in the world,” he said last month, boasting of market gains in the midst of a deep recession caused by the coronavirus.

But it’s understandable why the president wants to use the markets as a measure of the economy’s health, even as unemployment hovers at 8.4 percent and many businesses remain crippled. Since the start of the year, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index – even following the recent drop – is up 4.3 percent, and the Dow is down a mere 3 percent. If stocks were the sole measure of economic health, you might think the economy is on the mend, perhaps even poised for a breakout.

The president and his supporters are ignoring what former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently forcefully explained: “The stock market isn’t the economy. The economy is production and jobs, and there are shortfalls in virtually every sector . . ..” Yet how has the stock market remained so resilient in the face of such a severe economic shock? In part, it’s because of inequality. Stocks are overwhelmingly owned by the top 1 percent, which means speculation can continue even as more people lost their jobs at the onset of this recession than at any time since the Great Depression.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

“Everything is boarded up”?  Again, what was once an incredible asset is now a lead anvil around the necks…of those with, you guessed it, TOO MUCH DEBT! SURPRISE!

The country, the world, is now more than 150 days late on payments, why wouldn’t you expect vacancies/closures to explode? As we keep reminding you, one man’s liability is another’s asset. Did you expect ignorant violence would be a “draw” for anything other than more stupidity? Credit game over has arrived but MSM has not announced it yet…so it must not have happened? 

Apocalypse On Broadway: Study Finds 78% Increase In Vacant Storefronts

September 9, 2020

If the rising taxes and complete loss of law and order in the midst of a global pandemic wasn’t enough to drive you out of New York City, perhaps complete apocalypse on the city’s iconic Broadway will do it.

A stunning new report shows that more than 300 storefronts are now vacant along Broadway. It marks a 78% increase from three years ago. More than 33% of those vacancies were located between 14th and 59th streets, in the heart of Manhattan.

The tally was calculated by Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer and her staff in late August while visiting 13 miles and 244 blocks, according to the Wall Street Journal. Her staff was able to count 39 empty storefronts between 96th and 125th street, 66 empty spots between 59th and 96th street and 43 vacancies below 14th street.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

So, let me get this straight, Governor Cuomo is “allowing” restaurants in NYC to open with a 25% capacity…and this is the same guy who forced nursing homes to accept Covid positive patients? Maybe Wikipedia needs an edit for the term “rocket scientist”?

Gov. Cuomo Allows Indoor Dining At NYC Restaurants To Resume At 25% Capacity Sept. 30
September 9, 2020

New York City restaurants will be allowed to reopen their indoor dining areas at 25% capacity beginning Sept. 30, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Wednesday.

Restaurants, which have been staying afloat over the summer through takeout and outdoor dining services, will be required to take customers’ temperatures at the door, enforce mask wearing and social distancing rules.

The city’s restaurants and bars have remained closed since mid-March as New Yorkers sheltered in place to prevent further spread of the coronavirus tearing through its hospitals. Even as cases began to decline in New York over the summer, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Cuomo postponed reopening restaurants for indoor dining in early July as other states across the country reported growing outbreaks.

“We have seen clusters outbreak from restaurants, so that was the reason for caution,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. “We’ve been working on this issue everyday and we’re now announcing today that we can go to 25% of indoor dining with certain restrictions that will be enacted on September 30.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The answer is “yes” but very few see it yet because of the moratorium on foreclosures and evictions…

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Presented without comment.

Bill

“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled” Mark Twain (1835-1910).

Bill Holter’s Commentary

God blessed Texas with sanity!

Texas AG Says State May Take Over Austin Police Department To Prevent Defunding
September 6, 2020

Gov. Greg Abbott is considering legislation to put Austin police under state control to protect against defunding, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said Saturday.

Paxton, a Republican, was responding to Austin Mayor Steve Adler’s push to defund $150 million from the Austin Police Department.

“That makes little to no sense and makes our city less safe,” Paxton said on “Fox & Friends Weekend,” adding: “We can fund the police in a way that will keep the city safe, which is what we all want.”

The attorney general said the state could pass legislation that would allow it to fund police, effectively taking the department over.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Oops! Please remember, “someone” lent money on all these properties. Only the beginning and coming to your theatre no matter where you are…

NYC Commercial Real Estate Sales Plummet 54% To Lowest On Record
September 9, 2020

While Wall Street debates if it is time to move on from the Big Short 2.0 (malls) to the Big Short 3.0 (hotels), the broader commercial real estate market continues to implode and nowhere more so than in ground zero of the covid/riot crisis, New York City, where CRE deals have hit a brick wall as the pandemic continues to roil the local economy.

According to the Real Estate Board of New York, investment sales totaled $10.5 billion across 1,229 recorded deals in the first half of 2020, a 32% drop in transaction volume and a 54% plunge in total consideration compared to the first half of 2019, and a record low since the Real Estate Board of New York began reporting the data in 2015.

CRE deals in NYC

Apartment buildings suffered the biggest drops in prices, at 50% on average. Offices and hotels saw decreases of 28% and 37%, respectively, while prices for retail properties were flat.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

When I saw this, all I could think of was Bruce Willis saying “welcome to the party” in Die Hard when the police arrived. I mentioned it to my wife and she replied “the bastard shouldn’t be allowed to move until he fixes something”. Please understand, Kathryn rarely uses off color language but I view it as a gauge as to how pissed off people have become. Lastly from a financial standpoint, this bonehead paid $840,000 for his 2 bedroom condo just 3 years ago, does he believe there will be demand for HIS property now that total anarchy reigns? Adds a new meaning to shooting oneself in the foot doesn’t it?

Portland Mayor Says He’ll Move Soon, After Protests At His Condo Building
September 1, 2020

Portland, Ore., Mayor Ted Wheeler says he’s looking for a new place to live.

Wheeler’s disclosure came Tuesday in an email to other residents of the high-rise condominium building in the city’s Pearl District where he resides, which has been a frequent site of protests in recent months, OregonLive.com reported.

“I want to express my sincere apologies for the damage to our home and the fear that you are experiencing due to my position,” Wheeler wrote, according to an image of the email that was sent to the news outlet.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and the reason why central banks are desperate for inflation!

U.S. Debt Is Set to Exceed Size of the Economy Next Year, a First Since World War II
September 2, 2020

WASHINGTON—U.S. government debt will exceed the size of the economy in the government’s 2021 fiscal year, a milestone not hit since World War II that has been brought into reach by a giant fiscal response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that federal debt held by the public is projected to reach or exceed 100% of U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. economic output, in the fiscal year that begins on Oct. 1. That would put the U.S. in the company of a handful…

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Gold is THE ultimate fever thermometer which is the reason for more than a generation’s worth of suppression. As to “how” volatility has been tamped down for so many years, look no further than derivatives. Though few can even explain derivatives, the day is quite near where nearly everyone on the planet will have heard the dirty name “DERIVATIVES”!

In the End, Volatility Rights a Wrong Economy_001

In the End, Volatility Rights a Wrong Economy_002

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Well, well, well, who could’ve seen this coming? So, we wear masks and social distance why? And the bigger question is, we destroyed our real economy, why? Has anyone seen the death tolls since COVID related to flu, pneumonia, heart attack and other large categories? Did these numbers suddenly and “inexplicably” plummet? Maybe it was just an April fool’s joke?

New CDC Report Shows 94% Of COVID-19 Deaths In US Had Contributing Conditions
August 30, 2020

ATLANTA, Ga. (WJW) — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new data last week that depicts how many Americans who have died from COVID-19 also had other contributing conditions.

According to the report, only 6% of deaths have COVID-19 as the only cause mentioned, revealing that 94% of patients who died from coronavirus also had other “health conditions and contributing causes.”

The report reads in part:

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

JH Kunstler was traditionally a liberal. Does his sentiment represent the average red-blooded American democrat? It is our opinion that many moderate liberals look at the current violence with horror. The average person no matter color, creed, ideology, or political bent wants one thing in their lives…stability. Stability brings relative certainty, safety and peace of mind. As I believed in 2016 and publicly said so, I believe the current polls are completely bullshit. The average American has been fooled…but not totally!

Bill of Particulars
August 31, 2020

The few times this Covid-19 year of seclusion that friends have come over for dinner, they’re horrified to hear me say that I will do whatever I can to prevent the Democrats from winning the election. I was never a big thumper for Donald Trump, and didn’t vote for him in 2016 (or Hillary), but I will this time.

I’m in favor of his policy stands for defending the US border and stopping the flow of illegal migrants, on ending our foolish misadventures in foreign lands, on reducing the government’s stranglehold on private enterprise, and on opposing the matrix of rackets that make up the “DC swamp.” I admire Mr. Trump’s resilience in the face of a relentless assault by “the Intel Community,” the DC cabal of Lawfare seditionists, and the despicable confabulations of The New York Times and other media voices-of-authority captive to the Left.

I still view Mr. Trump as the designated bag-holder for the catastrophe of our economic quandary, but his political opponents would surely make things worse with their crypto-Marxist fantasies of a totalist American nanny-state. Few in any quarter of US leadership understand the long emergency we’ve entered, and most who do are too timid to spell out what it will actually require of us in the way of rigor and fortitude.

But here is my bill of particulars against the Democratic Party and what it has come to represent in recent years (and I write as someone who has remained a registered Democrat since 1972):

When their basic philosophy is not incoherent, it presents as explicit hypocrisy and bad faith. For instance, their Orwellian insistence on shutting down free speech in the name of “diversity and inclusion.” This malignant jive has just about destroyed higher education across the land. But it has also managed to infect business, government, and the arts, and turned the general population into cowering hostages willing to lie about their convictions to avoid “cancellation.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

WOW, this is rocket science! Load the system with debt and then shut down the real economy that generates the cash flow to service the debt…did anyone expect anything different to occur?

Markets Unprepared For Wave Of Defaults In Coming Months: S&P Global
August 31, 2020

There is a growing gap between what markets are expecting and a likely wave of defaults among struggling companies before summer 2021, according to an analysis by S&P Global published Monday.

The report by Nick Kraemer, head of S&P Global Ratings Performance Analytics, found that the dire state of the U.S. economy suggests a higher rate of defaults for what are known as speculative-grade companies. His analysis concluded that between this past June and the same month next year, defaults in that sector would rise from 5.4 percent to 12.5 percent.

The baseline scenario, which would see 229 speculative-grade companies default, involved a range of possible outcomes, from as few as 74 defaults to as many as 284.

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