Posts Categorized: In The News

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Are on the Wane, With Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Headed for a Record Shortfall
– August Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Some Pickup
– Federal Reserve Tightening Hits the Consumer Hard, Threatening Any Nascent, Broad Economic Upturn
– Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up
– Clobbered by Intensifying Consumer Liquidity Troubles, All Major Residential-Construction and Home-Sales Indicators in August Held in Deepening, Six-Month Moving-Average Downtrends
– Residential Sales and Construction Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks: Existing-Home Sales by 26.5% (-26.5%), New-Home Sales by 54.7% (-54.7%), Building Permits by 45.7% (-45.7%) and Housing Starts by 43.6% (-43.6%)
– Ex-Defense and Commercial Aircraft, August Real Durable Goods Orders Fell by 0.5% (-0.5%); Automobile Orders and Shipments Declined; Growth Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer
– Second-Quarter Real Gross Domestic (GDP) Revised to 4.16% from 4.23%; Purported Equivalent Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 1.62% from 1.81%
– Real GDP Stood 17.4% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation

“No. 971: Construction and Housing Markets, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Underlying Reality ”

www.shadowstats.com

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Really? Dopes?

Snopes Admits Blasey Ford Can’t Call Herself A Psychologist If She’s Not Licensed
October 2, 2018

Cathlene Lott

The Left is so frightened about Christine Blasey Ford’s credibility, they let poor Snopes humiliate itself again.

After an exclusive report on DANGEROUS was published Friday calling into question whether the most bizarre person in public life, Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford, could legally use the word “psychologist” in her title when presenting herself publicly, the “fact checking” website Snopes has doubled down in its defense of Ford and further exposed its remarkably bold leftwing bias.

Yet, even after Snopes deemed the DANGEROUS story to be “False,” the leftwing site admitted it could also not verify that Ford had a license in psychology. Snopes wrote, “the title ‘psychologist’ is indeed protected, meaning that it is against the law to falsely represent oneself as a psychologist without proper certification.” According to public records, Ford does not have a license in psychology.

Snopes then went on to selectively look at sections of California’s Business and Professional code in order to manufacture a label of “false” on the DANGEROUS report. The original DANGEROUS article, written by Chadwick Moore and published Sept. 28, took a much more expansive look at the law than Snopes did. The original article details how Ford may have perjured herself in the first sentence she uttered during her testimony last Thursday before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Under questioning, Ford identified herself as a “research psychologist”, in violation of California’s Business and Professional Code, as it pertains to who may, and who may not, refer to themselves as a “psychologist” and under what circumstances. The law states that while Ford may use the title “research psychologist” within her place of employment, she may under no circumstances use that word anywhere in her title or job description when she holds herself out to the public, unless she is licensed. The law is clearly intended not only as a measure of consumer protection, but also to preserve the integrity of the Board, its members, and the reputation of licensed psychologists. It appears under the law the way Ford identified herself publicly was the equivalent of someone who isn’t a doctor saying, “My name is John Doe, I’m a professor of medicine and a research physician.” It appears the appropriate way for Ford to have identified herself would have been as “a researcher at the Stanford School of Medicine.”

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Bill Holter’s Commetary

This represents about 6% of GDP. What would 4% GDP growth have been if we did not increase debt by 6%? Do you understand the math here?

In FY 2018: Debt Up $1,271,158,167,127; Feds Borrowed $8,172 Per Every American With A Job
October 1, 2018

By Terence P. Jeffrey

(CNSNews.com) – The federal debt increased by $1,271,158,167,126.72 in fiscal 2018, according to data released today by the Treasury.

The total federal debt started the fiscal year at $20,244,900,016,053.51 according to the Treasury, and finished the fiscal year at $21,516,058,183,180.23.

The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Everybody is onto manipulation.

The metals game yet some commentators still like to deny it.

Bank Of Nova Scotia Charged By CFTC With Spoofing In Gold, Silver Futures
October 1, 2018

The Bank of Nova Scotia BNS, -1.06% was charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with multiple acts of spoofing in gold and silver futures between June 2013 and June 2016. Traders placed orders to buy or sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel the orders before execution, the CFTC said. The CFTC fine was $800,000, as the CFTC said the penalty was substantially reduced because it reported the conduct to the agency.

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BREAKING: Sex Crimes Prosecutor Rachel Mitchell COMPLETELY EXONERATES Judge Kavanaugh in NEW REPORT!
September 30, 2018

By Jacob Wohl

After a careful review of all of the evidence put fourth by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her accusations of sexual assault against Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh, sex crimes prosecutor Rachel Mitchell has released a report which completely exonerates the judge.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Tipping Point for the Markets Likely Is at Hand
– Booming Consumer Outlook in September 2018 Has Parallels to 1987
– The FOMC Hiked Rates as Expected, Although Core Inflation Had Slowed Back to Below Overheated Conditions
– The Fed Has Dimmed Near-Term Economic Prospects by Continuing to Tighten the Screws on Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Likely Thwarting Any Nascent Economic Recovery
– August Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
– Monthly Growth in Real Retail Sales and Production Ground to a Halt in August, Net of Revisions, While Annual Growth in Freight Activity Softened
– Hurricane Florence Likely Disrupted Pending September Employment and Unemployment Numbers, on Top of Year-Ago Distortions
– Hurricane-Spiked Gasoline Prices in 2017 Will Have a Minimal Dampening Effect on the Pending Social Security COLA Determination
– Hurricane-Driven 2017 Data Turmoil Resurfaced with August 2018 Inflation, Slowing Annual Inflation, with Headline Growth Distortions Likely in Pending Economic Releases for September 2018 and Beyond

“No. 970: Tipping Point, Liquidity, Freight, Hurricane-Disrupted Data, Retail Sales, Production, Inflation”

www.shadowstats.com

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Some stark math for you…

As Debt Rises, the Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Than on the Military
September 26, 2018

The federal government could soon pay more in interest on its debt than it spends on the military, Medicaid or children’s programs.

The run-up in borrowing costs is a one-two punch brought on by the need to finance a fast-growing budget deficit, worsened by tax cuts and steadily rising interest rates that will make the debt more expensive.

With less money coming in and more going toward interest, political leaders will find it harder to address pressing needs like fixing crumbling roads and bridges or to make emergency moves like pulling the economy out of future recessions.

Within a decade, more than $900 billion in interest payments will be due annually, easily outpacing spending on myriad other programs. Already the fastest-growing major government expense, the cost of interest is on track to hit $390 billion next year, nearly 50 percent more than in 2017, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“It’s very much something to worry about,” said C. Eugene Steuerle, a fellow at the Urban Institute and a co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center in Washington. “Everything else is getting squeezed.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Interest expense is now approaching the size of the military budget and has no direction to go but up. More debt annually along with higher interest rates is a deadly formula.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Please read the last three paragraphs to see that my analysis of the Tanzanian situation was spot on.

Although the transaction mention today was Barrick taking over let me assure at the end of the day it is a reverse takeover with Rand in command soon is what happened.

Randgold was my primary competitor for the Buckreef property in Tanzania.

Barrick Gold, Randgold in Advanced Talks on Merger
September 23, 2018

Barrick Gold Corp. is said to be in advanced negotiations to merge its operations with Africa-focused rival Randgold Resources Ltd., protecting the Toronto-based miner’s crown as the world’s largest producer of the metal.

A deal is imminent, according to one of the three people familiar with the negotiations. They declined to provide more details. Talks could still fall apart should the parties fail to agree on the terms. Executives from Barrick and Randgold are in Colorado Springs for the Denver Gold Forum.

IKN, a blog specializing in mining news earlier reported that an announcement may come as early as Sunday or before the opening bell Monday, adding, “multiple sources have told the desk the deal is on.”

Andy Lloyd, a spokesman for Barrick, and Kathy du Plessis, a spokeswoman for Randgold declined to comment.

In many ways, the strategies of the two companies are similar. Both firms are highly focused on production costs, aiming to build portfolios that generate free cash flow even if gold prices drop to as low as $1,000 an ounce. They also have high internal ‘hurdle’ rates for investment; in Barrick’s case they must generate an internal rate of return of 15 percent and in Randgold’s 20 percent. The metal settled at $1,200.04 on the spot market Friday.

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Bank Of America Sees Gold Topping $1 300 On Fiscal Deficit
September 24, 2018

SINGAPORE –  Gold is set to surge over the next year as concerns deepen about the widening US. budget deficit and a tariff-driven trade war starts to damage the country’s economy, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bullion could average $1 350/oz  in 2019 as corporate tax reforms worsen the US fiscal balance, Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives research, said in a phone interview last week. Spot gold traded at $1 196.23 on Monday and has averaged about $1 285 this year.

We’re still pretty constructive longer term on gold,” because of worries over the future of the US economy even though it’s performing relatively well right now, said New York-based Blanch. “In the short run, the effects of strong dollar, higher rates dominate. But in the long run, a huge US government budget deficit is pretty positive for gold,” he said.

The warning over the budget echoes billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, who predicted this month that the US economy is about two years from a downturn, which will see the dollar plunge as the government prints money to fund a swelling deficit. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has also joined the chorus of bulls, seeing gold at $1 325 in 12 months. Bullion has been building a base around $1 200, after five months of losses, the worst run since 2013.

The Congressional Budget Office has predicted the US administration’s tax cuts, when combined with new federal spending, will push the budget deficit to $1-trillion in 2020. That’s forced the US Treasury to lift note and bond sales to levels last seen in the aftermath of the recession that ended in 2009.

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Considering the known bias of the source the story is interesting.

Jim

Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math
September 21, 2018

Gold has gotten a bad rap.

Long seen as the investment choice of the cranky and the fearful, the metal yields nothing; as Warren Buffett has said, it just “looks at you.”

This year has been especially lackluster for gold. Its price has slumped 8%, to about $1,200 an ounce, and is off more than 35% from its high of $1,900 in 2011. Adding insult to injury, Vanguard will soon rechristen the largest gold-oriented U.S. mutual fund and shift its focus away from the metal.

But this out-of-favor asset class now deserves a place in investment portfolios.

Compared with stocks and other financial assets, gold looks inexpensive. More important, inflation is starting to pick up in the U.S. and in much of the world as central banks shrink their enormous balance sheets. And gold has represented a good defense against inflation eroding the value of a stock or bond portfolio. Over time, it has held its value against the dollar. Gold was $20.67 an ounce 100 years ago and that bought a good men’s suit. At $1,200 an ounce, the same is true today.

“Gold is rare, and it’s hard to rapidly increase the supply of it,” says Keith Trauner, co-portfolio manager of the GoodHaven (ticker: GOODX) mutual fund, which holds Barrick Gold(ABX), a leading mining company. “People have historically viewed it as a hedge against government depreciation of local currency.”

There are an estimated six billion ounces of gold in the world, worth more than $7 trillion, about 30% of the value of the S&P 500. Annual new mined supply adds less than 2% to the global total.

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