Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

T-Bonds and gold sense there is something big afoot. Pay attention.

PDF via Momentum Structural Analysis

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Posted for all those who believe there will be no arrests. I will publicly apologize for being wrong if there are none, will you apologize when there are?

Clinton Foundation ‘Pay to Play’ Model Under Investigation [Infographic]
December 5, 2018

The Clinton Foundation has raised more than $2 billion since its inception in 1997, and Bill and Hillary Clinton have been paid more than $150 million for delivering speeches. Notably, these payments increased dramatically after Hillary Clinton took office as secretary of state in 2009.

The tens of millions of dollars that flowed directly to the Clintons or their foundation, from foreign governments or other entities (or “benefactors”) who could benefit from Secretary Clinton’s actions, seem to pose inherent conflicts of interest.

The foundation is currently being probed by U.S. Attorney John Huber—who was assigned by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions—for alleged wrongdoing.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Who would be this loyal to you?

George HW Bush’s Service Dog Sully Pays Touching Last Tribute
December 3, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The labrador who worked as a service dog for President George HW Bush has been pictured resting beside his coffin, in a moving tribute.

Mr Bush, who served as the 41st US president between 1989 and 1993, died late on Friday at the age of 94.

Sully the dog is travelling with the casket on the flight from Texas to Washington and back this week.

Mr Bush’s body is due to lie in state this week ahead of a day of national mourning.

The coffin is being flown from Texas to DC on board Air Force One – temporarily renamed Special Air Mission 41, in homage to the late president – and then back on Wednesday, with Sully accompanying the body throughout.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Fed Begins to Waffle on Interest Rates and Tightening? Watch the Dollar and Gold!
– Broad Systemic Liquidity and Real Earnings Growth Have Been Impaired by Federal Reserve Tightening
– Constrained Consumer Liquidity Has Taken an Increasing Toll on Economic Activity; GDP Final Sales Revised Lower
– Motor Vehicle Sales Are in a Downward Spiral
– Real Retail Sales, New Orders, Manufacturing, Residential Construction and Home Sales All Have Weakened
– Deteriorating Construction-Activity and Residential-Sales Never Have Recovered Pre-Recession Peak Levels
– With No End in Sight, October 2018 U.S. Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.3% (-4.3%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
– The 130 Straight Months of Economic Non-Expansion in Manufacturing Is Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Series
– Slowdown in Consumer-Driven Activity Looks Like the Onset of a New Recession
– Unadjusted October 2018 Annual Inflation Bounced Back from Year-Ago Disruptions, but Falling Gasoline Prices Should Offer Some Relief

“COMMENTARY NUMBER 978 – PART I”

www.shadowstats.com

Story of a Gold Coin
Monday, 3 December 2018

Hugo Salinas Price

As I was shuffling papers in some old files, I came across a slip of paper on which I had written down the price I had paid for a Mexican $50 gold peso coin: $717 Mexican pesos.

Judging from the price, I figure that the purchase was made sometime in 1972, when the price of a Troy ounce of gold was $46 dollars. The Mexican $50 gold peso coin contains 37.5 grams of pure gold, and 37.5/31.1 grams per Troy ounce, is 1.206: so there is 1.206 times more gold in a Mexican $50 gold peso piece, that in a Troy ounce of gold.

Thus, $46 dollars per ounce x 1.206 = $55.48 dollars as the value of the gold in the $50 gold peso coin, in 1972.

The rate of exchange Dollar/Peso in 1972 was $12.50 Mexican pesos per dollar, so $55.48 US x $12.50 = $693.50 pesos. I paid $717 pesos, because gold coins are always sold for a small percentage more than the price of bullion gold; in this case, the surcharge was for 3.4%.

The international price of an ounce of gold, as of last Friday, November 30, closed at $1,222.10 dollars. The rate of exchange was at $20.40 Mexican pesos per dollar. So today’s price of the Mexican $50 gold peso coin should  be close to $1,222.10 x $20.40 x 1.206 = $30,067 pesos. The quote this morning is: $30,890 pesos.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

They’ve just come up with this idea?

Clif High predicted next winter to be the worst in the USA and Canada in one hundred years. The planet is getting hotter by the day?

Ever heard of Chem-TRAILS? Just look up and see them today. This is not a contrail.

We Could Spray Cheap Chemicals in the Air to Slow Climate Change. Should We?
November 28, 2018

 Earth keeps getting hotter. Humanity isn’t doing enough to stop it. So, scientists are increasingly musing about conducting dramatic interventions in the atmosphere to cool the planet. And new research suggests that a project of atmospheric cooling would not only be doable, but also cheap enough that a single, determined country could pull it off. That cooling wouldn’t reverse climate change. The greenhouse gases would still be there. The planet would keep warming overall, but that warming would significantly, measurably slow down.

Those are the conclusions of a paper published Nov. 23 in the journal Environmental Research Letters by a pair of researchers from Harvard and Yale universities. It’s the deepest and most current study yet of “stratospheric aerosol injection” (also known as “solar dimming” or “solar engineering”). That’s the spraying of chemicals into the atmosphere to reflect the sun’s heat back into space, mimicking the global cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions.

The researchers found that humanity could, using this method, cut our species’ annual contributions to the greenhouse effect in half at a price that states and large cities spend all the time on highways, subways and other infrastructure projects: a total of about $3.5 billion over the course of the next 15 years to develop the technology. (Most of those funds would go into building planes able to carry big tanks of aerosol spray into the stratosphere, about double the cruising altitude of a Boeing 747.) Once the tech is ready, the researchers found, the project would then cost another $2.25 billion or so each following year (assuming the effort would run for the next 15 years).

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

We have talked about, written, and warned about the yield curve inverting. It is happening again, only this time with a global credit bubble firmly in place. I would ask “what could possibly go wrong” but in light of the current credit structure…the better question is what won’t go wrong?!!!

“Bad Omen Worsens” – Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Since 2007
December 3, 2018

While not the media and academia’s preferred tracker of looming recessions, the front-end of the Treasury curve has now inverted…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With 3s5s dropping below 0…

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Not sure, but I believe there are 7 prisoners in GITMO currently. Either an extreme waste of personnel and money…or, they are expecting more prisoners?

305th Military Police Company Deploys to Guantanamo Bay
December 2, 2018

WHEELING — More than 100 members of the 305th Military Police Company of Wheeling were deployed to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Saturday, following an official ceremony at Triadelphia Middle School’s gymnasium.

The 400-day deployment is in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, according to Sgt. First Class Reginald Pickett, with the 305th. He said the troops will be performing various military police duties during this period. Several speakers, including Lt. Col. Jonathan Bennett, commander of the 400th Military Police Battalion, spoke to the troops and their families about the hardships involved with a long deployment.

“Thank you to every one of you guys and gals who are standing here today who answered the call — because that’s what you’ve done and you have distinguished yourselves in doing so in taking that responsibility,” Bennett said, before going on to thank the families for their sacrifice as well.

“You are the ones that are doing double duty. You are the ones that are left behind and are keeping things going for us while we’re gone doing our mission. So I really want to say ‘thank you’ to both the soldiers and the families for all that they do in making this possible,” he added.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Not sure what to say, other than please watch this compilation “My Beautiful America” by Charlie Daniels, American citizen and Patriot.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is what Jim spoke of during our interim call yesterday for subscribers.

China Warns Trade War With US Could Escalate Into ‘Great Depression & World War’
November 28, 2018

Washington is considering sanctions against companies and officials linked to China’s alleged crackdown on the country’s minority Muslims.

Speaking to Reuters before heading to join Chinese President Xi Jinping’s delegation at this week’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Cui Tiankai said China was going to the Argentinean capital hoping for a deal to ease a damaging trade war with the United States.

Mentioning the two countries’ shared responsibility to cooperate in the interests of the global economy, Cui warned about dire consequences if US hawks try to drive a wedge between the world’s two largest economies.

He drew parallels to the tariff wars the industrial countries fought during the 1930s, resulting in a collapse of global trade and stoking tensions in the run-up to World War Two.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

So Russia made a $12 billion mistaken loan? Do you have any idea what a $12 billion order would do to COMEX or even LBMA…if they demanded physical? Please think this one through, a pittance (and far less than $12 billion) can now destroy entire markets?

Russian Bank “Fat Finger” Gives Poor African Country Loan Equal To Six Times Its GDP
November 28, 2018

The impoverished state of Central African Republic – one of the poorest countries in the world – landed a paper windfall on Tuesday, when Russian state bank VTB reported it had lent the country $12 billion, or more than six times the country’s entire GDP — but the bank then said it was a clerical error “fat finger” and there was no such loan.

According to Reuters, the loan was mentioned in a quarterly VTB financial report published by the Russian central bank, which included a table listing the outstanding financial claims that VTB group had on dozens of countries as of Oct. 1 this year. There, in the table next to Central African Republic was the sum of 801,933,814,000 roubles, or $12 billion — more than six times the country’s annual economic output of $1.95 billion.

There was no indication in the data published by the Russian central bank of who was the recipient of the loan, the purpose of the loan, or when it was issued and on what terms.

When asked about the data by Reuters, the bank said the loan to the former French colony did not, in reality, exist.

“VTB bank has no exposure of this size to any foreign country. Most likely, this is a case of an operational mistake in the system when the countries were being coded,” the lender said in a statement sent to Reuters.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

We continued to believe the rule of law would make a comeback. President Trump’s tweet is a strong indication it is game on!

Trump Shares Image Calling For His Opponents To Face Trials For ‘Treason’
November 28, 2018

President Trump on Wednesday morning shared an image calling for his opponents to face trial for “treason,” with many of them behind bars.

The image, which the president retweeted from a pro-Trump Twitter account, depicts a host of figures Trump has criticized, including former President Obama, 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, special counsel Robert Mueller, former FBI Director James Comey and former President Bill Clinton.

“Now that Russia collusion is a proven lie, when do the trials for treason begin?” the caption on the photo reads.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Just a glimpse of what a real trade war would look like?io

Bill Holter’s Commentary

And once again, it’s all about credit…!

“This Is The End-Of-Cycle”: One Bank’s Credit Monitor Is Flashing Red
November 27, 2018

Back in April, when very few were concerned about the fate of the US credit market where credit spreads were approaching all time tights, Morgan Stanley asked what would turn out to be a prophetic question: “Is the credit cycle about to crack”, and taking a contrarian position, answered in the affirmative.

Seven months later, as part of its 2019 Credit Outlook, Morgan Stanley takes its dismal take of US credit one step further, and in a report from strategist Adam Richmond, writes that “the credit bear market, which likely began when IG spreads hit cycle tights in Feb 2018, has begun and will continue in 2019, with HY and then eventually loans underperforming, as headwinds shift from technicals to fundamentals.”

To frame the temporal context of its gloomy assessment, Morgan Stanley writes that just one year ago not a cloud was to be seen on the credit horizon as “2017 was the ‘Goldilocks’ year” as growth expectations were rising on the back of a synchronized global expansion, investors could look forward to the possibility of tax cuts, and monetary policy remained very accommodative, aided by low inflation.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

I started out as a broker in 1984 and do not ever remember ANY firm “downgrading stocks to sell” prior to or during some devastating bear markets.  Should it make us wonder “why”?

Morgan Stanley Breaks Consensus, Downgrades US Stocks To Sell
November 26, 2018

The decoupling is over for the US economy and its stock market according to Morgan Stanley which has long held a bearish outlook on the US, but overnight officially downgraded US stocks to “sell”, expecting the S&P to end 2019 at 2,750, while double upgrading emerging market to overweight.

In a note release by Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheet, he expects a sharp slowdown for the US economy, along with a pick-up in global inflation that will keep monetary tightening intact, urging clients to get out of credit, load up on emerging markets and stock up on cash. In short, while 2018 was defined by “rolling bear markets”, 2019 will be the year of “turning.”

Additionally, Sheets writes that last year’s ‘tricky handoff’ of slower growth, higher inflation and tighter policy continues, and is now joined by key shifts in the relative trend of growth and policy. These macro shifts will mean turning points in five key market

relationships, and as Morgan Stanley explains, it differs from the consensus when it comes to: USD weakens, US and EU rates converge, EM outperforms, US stocks underperform, value beats growth, EM sovereigns outperform US HY.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Growth?

GM To Fire 15% Of Salaried Workers, Close 7 Plants
November 26, 2018

Update 3: In case you were wondering why GM would be doing this amid ‘the greatest recovery’ of all time and global synchronized growth; this chart should help!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

h/t @M_McDonough

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Update 2: The cutbacks announced by GM Monday morning were more severe than most analysts expected – and were certainly steeper than leaked reports published late Sunday and early Monday had suggested.

After GM shares were halted pending news following a 2%+ jump after the open, Barra revealed that the company would shutter 7 plants (5 in North America and 2 international) after 2019, fire 15% of its salaried workforce and shift hiring priorities to more tech workers in a cost-cutting drive intended to save the company some $6 billion by the end of 2020 ($4.5 billion will come from cost savings, $1.5 billion from lower capital spending). As GM seeks more workers with “different skills”, it also plans to shift its investment focus toward electric and autonomous vehicles.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Is this surprising? Of course not. The only thing surprising is that Martin Armstrong is claiming “manipulation” when in the past he lambasted anyone claiming manipulation? Did he take some truth serum…?

Goldman Sachs Going Down on the Pi Target?
November 23, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund sued Goldman Sachs on the Pi Target, Wednesday, November 21st, 2018,  for allegedly conspiring against the Middle Eastern fund to further a criminal scheme by Malaysia’s scandal-plagued 1MDB. The suit, filed in a New York court on behalf of Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), names Goldman Sachs as well as former Goldman officials who were charged by the US Justice Department in indictments unsealed earlier this month. “This action seeks redress for a massive global conspiracy on the part of the defendants to defraud and injure plaintiffs,” said the lawsuit, which also named former executives from IPIC and its subsidiary Aabar Investments.

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