Bill Holter’s Commentary
Very, very funny 90 seconds, but so sad because our entitled youth today truly think like this. They will vote and even run for office (AOC?)…and “fund” an already bankrupt Social Security system. Oh that’s right, they would have to have jobs and actually work to do that!
Bill Holter’s Commentary
It won’t be long before this will be true in all currencies…
Gold Surges To New All Time Record Highs In Euros At EUR 1,456 Per Ounce
February 14, 2020
Gold prices surged to new all time record highs in euros today at €1,456 per ounce as the single currency came under selling pressure.
The record highs are due to safe haven demand due to a weaker euro as the German and eurozone economies slow and on concerns about the impact of a slowing global economy on risk assets.
Gold prices are up over 7% in euro terms so far in 2020, building on the 22.7% gains in euros seen in 2019 (see table below).
Bill Holter’s Commentary
Any idea what this means? Do you really believe your brokerage statement is correct…?
Hong Kong’s Largest Mall Owner Cuts Rents Up To 50%
February 12, 2020
Commenting on the regional impact of the Covid-2019 epidemic, Morgan Stanley writes that Hong Kong’s tourism, trade and domestic consumption could be significantly affected, further aggravating the technical recession the financial hub found itself going into 2020.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
David Rosenberg “smells a rat”!
David Rosenberg: This Turbocharged Debt Cycle Will End Miserably — It’s Just A Matter Of When
February 7, 2020
It is clear that it would have been a very hard sell a year ago that every single risk-on asset class from equities, to corporate bonds, to commodities would end up rallying as much as they did in 2019.
And so perhaps the message for 2020 is to fade all the optimism since fading the pessimism a year ago paid off very well. The sharp slide in Treasury yields this past year does not exactly comport with the risk-on view that has morphed into the consensus forecast.
Fed policy, the trajectory of GDP growth and global economic fundamentals in general all tell a cautionary tale. Both bonds and stocks can’t be right at this moment in time.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
…and so it begins.
China Starts Giving ‘Force Majeure’ Slips to Virus-Hit Companies
February 11, 2020
A car-parts supplier became one of the earliest known companies to obtain a “force majeure” certificate in China that may help it avoid penalties for breaching contractual obligations because of the coronavirus outbreak.
The manufacturer, eastern China-based Huida Manufacturing (Huzhou) Co., supplies steering-system components to a plant of Peugeot maker PSA Group in Africa, a Chinese trade body said Tuesday.
The organization, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said it issued the certificate on Feb. 2. More companies have since received the document, which is recognized by enterprises, governments, trade associations and customs officials in more than 200 places around the world, CCPIT said.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
So, copper is worth less now than in 2008? Really? What does that say?
Bill Holter’s Commentary
What does this mean?
2019 Worst Year for Air Freight Demand Since 2009
February 5, 2020
Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released full-year 2019 data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs), fell by 3.3% compared to 2018 while capacity (AFTK) rose by 2.1%. This was the first year of declining freight volumes since 2012, and the weakest performance since the global financial crisis in 2009 (when air freight markets contracted by 9.7%).
In the month of December, cargo volumes contracted 2.7% year-on-year while capacity rose 2.8%.
Air cargo’s performance in 2019 was dampened by weak growth in global trade of just 0.9%. The sector’s underperformance was also due in particular to slowing GDP growth in manufacturing-intensive economies. Softer business and consumer confidence, along with falling export orders, also contributed to air freight struggles.
There are signs that confidence and orders could pick up in 2020. It is too early to say what long-term effects will be seen from the impact of restrictions associated with combatting the coronavirus outbreak.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
Yes, free and fair markets indeed?
JPMorgan’s Role in Metals Spoofing Is Under U.S. Criminal Probe
February 5, 2020
U.S. authorities that accused six JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees of rigging precious-metals futures are building a criminal case against the bank itself, two people familiar with the situation said.
The previously unreported investigation of the global bank’s parent company, part of a wide-ranging federal clampdown on market manipulation, raises the prospect of criminal charges and significant fines against America’s largest bank.
No formal accusations have been made against JPMorgan. A bank spokeswoman, Jessica Francisco, declined to comment and pointed to company filings from last year disclosing that the Justice Department’s Criminal Division was investigating “trading practices in the…
Bill Holter’s Commentary
Mr. Macleod proves out Sir Richard Russell’s “INFLATE OR DIE”!
Irrational Fears Of Deflation
January 23, 2020
The benefits of a deflation of prices brought about by a combination of sound money and markets free from government intervention have been demonstrated to be the best economic environment, the denial of which in favour of inflationary financing has led to repeated monetary and systemic failures.
This article explains how this has come about and puts the record on deflation straight. The development of macroeconomic theory had to deny the benefits of a deflation of prices, unbelievably telling us we need higher prices to stimulate our consumption.
Deflation and investment funded by savings is a far better, natural economic environment than the false gods of easy debt and money printing. There can be no return to the stability of gentle price deflation without seismic shifts in economic thinking and government responsibilities.
Inflate and Die – Stock Collapse And Gold Surge Imminent
January 30, 2020
“Inflate or die” was coined by the legendary and extremely wise Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters. He understood the necessity, as well as the curse, of permanent central bank money printing already at the beginning of this century. Richard died in 2015 so sadly he didn’t live to see how right he was.
After three decades of massive money printing and credit expansion, “inflate or die” has artificially kept the world economy going. But we are now in the 2020s moving in to the next stage which will be INFLATE AND DIE. Because, as stock and credit bubbles implode and money printing accelerates, the world will soon realise that not only is the freshly printed money worthless but also most of the manufactured money from the last 20 years.
DAVOS – WEF 2020
But before we look at the consequences of inflate and die, last week 117 billionaires just attended a Weather conference in Davos. They were joined by another 2,900 CEOs, political leaders, climate activists and other self-important people. It is quite surprising that so many “important” people get together to talk about the weather. With Swedish Greta (not Garbo) telling everyone “how dare you, the entire eco-system is collapsing, people are dying” etc., not just every Davos VIP but also all major central bankers must now have a green agenda. For example, Lagarde the ECB Chief has made a strategic review of the bank’s purpose and stated that action on climate is a fundamental component of monetary policy. Climate change action will be a “mission critical” priority for the ECB. Would be better if she realised the EU financial system is a mission critical priority rather than getting involved in controlling temperatures.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
This only makes sense if you have a short circuit going on between your ears…
House to Vote on Bill Forcing Non-Union Members to Pay Union Dues
February 4, 2020
WASHINGTON—The U.S. House of Representatives will vote this week on a sweeping bill backed by organized labor that would reverse so-called right-to-work laws in 27 states and require non-union workers in unionized professions to pay union dues as a condition of employment.
Labor-related issues have been receiving attention lately as Democratic presidential candidates jockeying for support in primary season join striking workers on picket lines.
Democratic lawmakers say the legislation, which is fiercely opposed by business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is needed to help workers.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
One must wonder what the “over/under” would be for the life expectancy of the president?
Is Hillary Clinton Angling To Become Vice President?
February 1, 2020
A number of people in politics, the media and elsewhere are openly speculating that if Democrats wind up with a “brokered convention,” with no strong or viable nominee evident, Hillary Clinton might enter the arena as the “savior” who could unite the delegates and go on to defeat President Donald Trump.
Clinton herself seemed to throw shade at that theory during an interview with Variety at the Sundance Film Festival. When asked about the “urge” to beat Trump, the former Democratic nominee said, “Yeah. I certainly feel the urge because I feel the 2016 election was a really odd time and an odd outcome. And the more we learn, the more that seems to be the case. But I’m going to support the people who are running now and do everything I can to help elect the Democratic nominee.”
Several politically savvy Democrats have told me that “everything” may be a much more plausible and powerful scenario.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
And California is worried about plastic bags and straws…?
Japan Panel Recommends Ocean Release For Contaminated Fukushima Water
January 31, 2020
TOKYO (Reuters) – A panel of experts advising Japan’s government on a disposal method for radioactive water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant on Friday recommended releasing it into the ocean, a move likely to alarm neighboring countries.
The panel under the industry ministry came to the conclusion after narrowing the choice to either releasing the contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean or letting it evaporate – and opted for the former. Based on past practice it is likely the government will accept the recommendation.
The build-up of contaminated water at Fukushima has been a sticking point in the clean-up, which is likely to last decades, especially as the Olympics are due to be held in Tokyo this summer with some events less than 60 km (35 miles) from the wrecked plant.
Neighboring South Korea has retained a ban on imports of seafood from Japan’s Fukushima region imposed after the nuclear disaster and summoned a senior Japanese embassy official last year to explain how the Fukushima water would be dealt with.
Bill Holter’s Commentary
A very long but excellent read from Paul Mylchreest. If you truly want to understand the “fractional reserve” basis of the LBMA, this is your primer!
Gold: Open Letter to LBMA Board of Directors
January 29, 2020