Posts Categorized: In The News

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Talk about all or nothing, today’s vote will determine our future as a nation. A yes vote to repeal will mean we have a governing body. A no vote will mean the people lost and government becomes more (totally) dysfunctional. I cannot stress enough how important this day will be seen by historians.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I have read and agree 100% with Bill’s analysis.

Russian Roulette, Central Banks, and Gold
March 24, 2017

Grab your ultra-reliable 357 magnum revolver and load the cylinder with six, not one, rounds of ammunition. Point the gun at your head if you are a member of the struggling middle-class. Imagine pulling the trigger and hoping …

Do you feel lucky?

The Six Loads of Ammunition for your 357 revolver are:

#1: Central banks and commercial banks exert a huge influence over all aspects of our financial lives. Paper currencies issued by central banks, digital currency units, credit card debt, pension funds, retirement accounts, checking accounts, Quantitative Easing, bond monetization, congress, regulators, Presidents, and the list goes on. Their game, their rules, your losses, and more of the same.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

If you are nervous or even bearish about gold, this is a must read. Highly respected money manager John Hathaway lays out the case for much higher gold prices. Please note the supply and demand situation, his discussion of paper versus physical gold and thoughts on China “revaluing” gold. None of this should be new to you but it should serve as an excellent read to strengthen your convictions!

John Hathaway – China To Radically Reprice Gold Higher In 2017 As Demise Of The COMEX & LBMA Accelerates
March 23, 2017

(King World News) – Gold rose 8.5% for the year while gold-mining stocks (XAU – Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index stocks) rose 75%. On an annual basis, results were highly satisfactory. However, there was considerable drama beneath the surface that left precious metals investors in a state of anxiety by year-end. Precious metals and mining shares rose sharply through August, and then spent the rest of the year giving back much of the first-half gains. The second half downtrend accelerated into early December, following the unexpected victory by Trump and a hawkish statement after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting…

The Next Big Change In The Gold Price Will Be Substantially Higher

The question of the hour is whether the 2016 gains were merely a countertrend rally following a four-and-a-half-year decline from all-time highs in 2011, or the beginning of a new leg in the secular bull market that began in 1999, during which gold rose from less than $300/oz. to $1900 in August 2011. We judge the weight of current sentiment, mainstream media opinion, and technical analysis to be extremely bearish, comparable to year-end 2015 just prior to the dramatic gains that followed. We believe that, based on prevailing negativity, the next big change in the gold price will be substantially higher. If so, the 2016 second-half correction will have established a durable higher low from the advance that began at year-end 2015, and would be the precursor to the continuation of the secular advance that began in 2000.

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

“Just look at us. Everything is backwards, everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, psychiatrists destroy minds, scientists destroy truth, major media destroys information, religions destroy spirituality and governments destroy freedom.”

― Michael Ellner …”and money was destroyed a long time ago.” – Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do you think allowing James Comey to testify to Congress before revealing these revelations was by accident? I would say Mr. Comey just got punked “by accident on purpose”…Can’t wait to see MSM’s reaction to this…!

House Intelligence Chair Devin Nunes: ‘Incidental Collection’ Of Communications From Trump Team During Transition
March 22, 2017

WASHINGTON — In what he called “significant developments,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) said there was “incidental collection” of communications from President Trump’s team between the election and Trump’s swearing in — and Trump himself may have been inadvertently surveilled by U.S. intelligence officials.

Nunes, a Trump ally who is heading the House’s investigations into Russia’s meddling in the election, said he was “alarmed” by the developments. But he repeatedly said that the surveillance was obtained legally from normal intelligence monitoring of foreign sources.

“This appears to be all legally collected foreign intelligence,” he told reporters during a Wednesday press conference on Capitol Hill. “It was all normal foreign surveillance.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This guy obviously ate too many tainted spuds!

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Maybe they would have had better odds playing “Russian roulette”? As a side note, I searched for other sources on this topic via Bing and Yahoo. The entire first page on Yahoo were of articles claiming these 8 Russians ALL had ties to President Trump. Bing was even worse, their first two pages were filled with similar articles claiming ties to Mr. Trump. I wonder how this will square in the next week or two as the DNC back peddles and admits there is not nor has been a “Trump/Russia” connection? True information is becoming very difficult to obtain, “they” are coming for your mind …DO NOT LET THEM have it!

Another Senior Russian Official Has Died
March 19, 2017

Since the day of Donald Trump’s election, high-ranking Russian officials have been dropping like flies and today’s reports that a top official of Russia’s space agency has been found dead brings the total to eight.

As we noted previously, six Russian diplomats have died in the last 3 months – all but one died on foreign soil. Some were shot, while other causes of death are unknown. Note that a few deaths have been labeled “heart attacks” or “brief illnesses.”

1. You probably remember Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov — he was assassinated by a police officer at a photo exhibit in Ankara on December 19.

2. On the same day, another diplomat, Peter Polshikov, was shot dead in his Moscow apartment. The gun was found under the bathroom sink but the circumstances of the death were under investigation. Polshikov served as a senior figure in the Latin American department of the Foreign Ministry.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Please refer to our latest subscription article “Credit Impulse”. Credit creation is no longer growing, not a problem in a system built on equity …a HUGE problem however for one built on debt!

Bank Loan Creation Crashes At Fastest Pace Since The Financial Crisis
March 19, 2017

Last weekend, after looking at the latest H.8 statement by the Fed, we noted something concerning: total loans and leases by U.S. commercial banks were rising at an annual pace of about 4.6%, based on weekly Fed data. That is down from a 6.4% pace for all of last year and peak rates of around 8% in mid-2016. This is the slowest pace of debt creation since the spring of 2014. This deceleration has prompted numerous questions about the sustainability of the recovery, and led the WSJ to noted that the slowdown, “is at odds with the idea of a stronger economy and rising sentiment.”

But the slowdown was especially acute in the all important for growth Commercial and Industrial loan category, which after growing at a pace of 10% in the first half of 2016, had unexpectedly slowed to just 4.0%, nearly 50% lower than the 7% growth notched at the start of the year. This was the lowest pace of loan growth since July of 2011.

Fast forward one week, when after the latest update to the Fed’s latest weekly commercial bank loan data, we find that the trends have deteriorated substantially.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

“Has the Federal Reserve Gone Completely Insane?” The simple answer to this question is YES!

12 Reasons Why The Fed Just Made The Biggest Economic Mistake Since The Last Financial Crisis
March 19, 2017

Has the Federal Reserve gone completely insane? On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates for the second time in three months, and it signaled that more rate hikes are coming in the months ahead. When the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it becomes less expensive to borrow money and that tends to stimulate more economic activity. But when the Federal Reserve raises rates , that makes it more expensive to borrow money and that tends to slow down economic activity. So why in the world is the Fed raising rates when the U.S. economy is already showing signs of slowing down dramatically? The following are 12 reasons why the Federal Reserve may have just made the biggest economic mistake since the last financial crisis…

#1 Just hours before the Fed announced this rate hike, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s projection for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter fell to just 0.9 percent. If that projection turns out to be accurate, this will be the weakest quarter of economic growth during which rates were hiked in 37 years.

#2 The flow of credit is more critical to our economy than ever before, and higher rates will mean higher interest payments on adjustable rate mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt. Needless to say, this is going to slow the economy down substantially…

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– Industrial Production May Be Bottoming, Yet, There Are New Signals of Intensifying Economic Risk

– Production Was Flat in February, Minimally Positive Year-to-Year, with Gains in Manufacturing and Mining Offset by Weather-Distorted Utilities
– No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-2007 Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.94% (-0.94%), Manufacturing Down by 4.97% (-4.97%)
– Major Downside Revisions to Production Activity of Recent Years Likely Loom with the March 31st Annual Benchmarking Going Back to 1972
– General Outlook Remains in Place for Continuing Near-Term Economic Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

“No. 874: February Industrial Production, Updated Economic Review”
www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Imagine if they call out fake news with solid proof and logic in their findings?

Russian Parliament Launches Investigation Of “CNN And Other American Media”
March 18, 2017

A few days ago Jeanne Shaheen, a Democratic Senator from New Hampshire, introduced a piece of legislation that would give the Department of Justice “new authority” to investigate potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act by the ‘Russian Times’. Among other things, Shaheen said the legislation was necessary to determine whether “RT News is coordinating with the Russian government to spread misinformation and undermine our democratic process.” We won’t even bother to touch on the inherent hypocrisy of such a statement, but here is the press release from Shaheen’s website:

Following intelligence reports that RT News operates as a propaganda outlet for the Russian government, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has introduced legislation that gives the Department of Justice new authority to investigate potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act by RT America.

“We have good reason to believe that RT News is coordinating with the Russian government to spread misinformation and undermine our democratic process,” said Shaheen. “The American public has a right to know if this is the case. RT News has made public statements boasting that it can dodge our laws with shell corporations, and it’s time for the Department of Justice to investigate. My bill provides the authority needed to request documentation of RT News and find out who they’re accountable to.”

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now this is what I call dissention.

Fed’s Kashkari Wants Plan On Balance Sheet Before Any More Rate Hikes
March 17, 2017

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, the lone dissenter against the U.S. central bank’s decision this week to raise interest rates, said on Friday the U.S. economy is still falling short on employment and inflation.

Even after the data support tightening, Kashkari said in a statement, the Fed should wait on raising interest rates until it publishes a detailed plan for how and when it will reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

“The announcement of our balance sheet plan could trigger somewhat tighter monetary conditions,” Kashkari said, resulting in the equivalent of a rate hike of unknown size. “After it has been published and the market response is understood, we can return to using the federal funds rate as our primary policy tool, with the balance sheet normalization under way in the background.”Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, the lone dissenter against the U.S. central bank’s decision this week to raise interest rates, said on Friday the U.S. economy is still falling short on employment and inflation.

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is an interesting tweet from Cliff.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– FOMC Fiddles with Boosting Interest Rates, While Annual Real M3 Growth Just Plunged to a New Signal for a Major Economic Downturn
– Annual Contraction in First-Quarter Real Earnings Is a Virtual Certainty; Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions Also Are in Play; Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012
– February Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.08% Was Less than Inflation;
Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.04% (-0.04%) for the Month
– Headline Annual Inflation Surge Has Been Due to Energy-Price Distortions, Not to an Overheating Economy
– February 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.12%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 60-Month High of 2.74%, with CPI-W at 2.82% and ShadowStats at 10.5%
– February Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 59-Month High of 2.19%

“No. 872: February PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and Earnings and the FOMC”
www.shadowstats.com

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The oldest place to pass time of the super wealthy my be called Secret Fun Islands.

Obama Jets Off To Paradise: Ex-President Travels To Marlon Brando’s Private Polynesian Island To Unwind (So Is This Where He And Michelle Will Write Their $60million Memoirs?)
March 16, 2017

Former President Barack Obama has arrived in French Polynesia where he will spend a month at a luxury resort frequented by Hollywood stars.

He landed on the tourist island of Tahiti this week without his family before going to Marlon Brando’s privately owned retreat Tetiaroa atoll, which the Oscar-winning actor bought in the 1960s.

Obama then checked into the eco-friendly Brando resort, whose villas boast their own plunge pools and cost between 2,000 euros ($2,150) and 12,300 euros per night.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and the Fed will raise rates how many more times?

“Something Snapped”: US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record
March 14, 2017

As we first documented last week in “Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble” and as Bloomberg followed up yesterday, looking at CMBS on the Mall REIT space, many have set their sights on mall REITs as the “next big short.” However, an obvious question that has emerged is whether it is too late to go all in on this particular short, or whether as some have suggested, the bottom is in. “The short feels crowded to us,” said Matthew Weinstein, principal at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund that specializes in structured products. “If these defaults start happening soon, the short will work, but if the defaults do not occur quickly, the first guy out could drive the market meaningfully higher.”

On the other hand, one particular chart revealed in the latest monthly Bank of America debit and credit card spending report shows that things may be about to get a whole lot worse for America’s department stores, as well as malls where they are for the most part the anchor tenants. Of note: while official US retail sales data will be released tomorrow (BofA data always comes several days ahead of the official release), what is especially ominous is that the collapse in department store spending was the biggest on record.

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The collapse in department store spending in February took place in the context of broad weakness across the entire retail universe, with BofA reported that retail sales ex auto declined 0.2% seasonally adjusted. Since that was not accepetable, BofA decided to smooth out large swings over the prior two months, leaving it with retail sales ex-autos running at an average 3 month pace of 0.1% mom SA. As the chart below shows, even that suggests a far weaker than expected retail sales report tomorrow, just hours before the Fed’s rate hike announcement: “Given that the BAC data trends closely with the Census Bureau, we think our data points to a soft report when it is released on Wednesday the 15th.”

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Time to create “mall futures” and crank up the presses…FAST!

The Next Domino To Fall: Commercial Real Estate
March 7, 2017

Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, central banks prepare to battle the last financial crisis–which in the present context means a big-bank liquidity meltdown like the one that nearly toppled the global financial system in 2008-09.

Planning to win the next war by assuming it will be a copy of the last confict is an excellent strategy for losing the next war. The same holds true for the next financial crisis: reckoning that it will be a repeat of 2008 is an excellent way to be caught completely off-guard.

Crises may rhyme, but they don’t repeat. The next Global Financial Meltdown won’t start in subprime mortgages–that sector has been wiped out, written down, or passed on to the poor tax-donkey taxpayers.

The next crisis also won’t arise on money-center banks, either. Central banks have figured out how to bail out the banks, and have rebuilt the bank balance sheets by stripping hundreds of billions of dollars in interest from savers.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John William’s www.shadowstats.com

– Beware the Ides of March!
– FOMC Targeting Growth-Killing Rate Hikes in an Economy that Is Foundering, Not Overheating?
– January Real Median Household Income Continued to Falter, Down Year-to-Year for the Second Straight Month
– First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007, An Early Negative for the GDP
– If the Current Trend in Trade Is Not Altered, Third-Quarter 2017 Real Deficit Would Be Worst Ever
– Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Down for the Month and Year, Amidst Upside Revisions and Rising Inflation, Still Shy of Its Pre-Recession High by 22% (-22%)

“No. 870: January Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Household Income, Pending FOMC “
www.shadowstats.com

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Clif High-Chaos Starts Middle of March
March 7, 2017