Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The bank index has crashed 10% in the 2 1/2 days of trading after the Fed meeting…wasn’t the Fed about as dovish as possible?  Washington, we have a major problem!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Runs Largest Monthly Budget Deficit On Record In February
March 22, 2019

The numbers: The federal government ran a budget deficit of $234 billion in February, the Treasury Department reported on Friday, the biggest monthly shortfall on record.

It was wider than the $215 billion recorded in February 2018, as spending rose 8% while receipts climbed 7%. Previously, the largest monthly deficit was $231.7 billion in February 2012.

The release of the February figures was later than normal due to the 35-day shutdown that ended Jan. 25.

What happened: Total spending was $401 billion in February while the government took in $167 billion.

Drivers of spending in February included agriculture and transportation programs. The Treasury said individual withheld and payroll taxes climbed 5% in the month. Refunds dropped 10% in February, a month in which the Congressional Budget Office notes the share of total refunds paid varies from year to year.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE TO INFINITY.

The Fed Has Given Up: Get Ready for More QE
March 21, 2019

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. Overall, the FOMC signaled it has made a dovish turn away from the promised normalization of monetary policy which the Fed has promised will be implemented “some day” for a decade. Although the Fed began to slowly raise rates in late 2016 — after nearly a decade of near-zero rates — the target rate never returned to even three percent, and thus remains well below what would have been a more normal rate of the sort seen prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted without commentary…
Bill

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Ready to find out what “Hot” means when combined with “Inflation”

Good and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks!

     Gold continues to go against the short traders as the push for price carries forward its momentum with Gold now at $1,311.90, up $4.60 with the high hitting $1,313.60 and the low at $1,306.50. Silver is hardly up at all with its trade at $15.455, up 1.8 cents with a high at $15.55 and the low right close to the now at $15.435. It seems that since Harvey Organ’s EFP watch of our precious metals futures transfers going to London took away all the trading activity from Comex as we expect another day of sleep once Comex Opens but for now the US Dollar is trading higher at 96.205, up 21.8 points with the high at 96.29 and the low way down at 95.695. That low occurred around 1 am pst, of course the rest of the activity has already occurred way before 5 am pst and the Comex’s (no need to be awake) Open. In Venezuela, Gold’s price is currently set at 13,102.60 Bolivar, losing 32.96 over night with Silver at 154.357, losing .999 Bolivar in value, ironically the exact measure of pure metal inside 1 ounce of real.

     March Silver’s Physical Deliver demands got met with a bunch of receipts either here or in London with the total sum dropping 56 obligations, setting today’s starting count at 45 with Zero Volume up on the board so far. The shorts are in the fight of their lives with Silver’s Over All Open Interest gaining more during yesterday’s attempted price push lower, adding an additional 431 more shorts to stay the price, while someone takes away the physicals with today’s Overall total equaling 191,055 overnighters during this weekends “Britain is sick of the MayDay Delay” as the EU supposedly accepts 2 more weeks. We know this term and the game, called Extend and Pretend, and only politicians can do it because of the closed doors they speak behind that the rest of the world is not allowed to hear.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
– The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
– The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
– The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
– Nonetheless the U.S. Economy Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
– Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
– Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
– Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

“Bullet Edition No. 4”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I’m not sure I would like to pay for my child’s tuition if they are teaching that Booker T. Washington was America’s first president?

‘American Political Thought’ Course At CU Denver Removes All White Men From Curriculum
March 22, 2019

DENVER — I can clearly recall the first day of class a few semesters ago when I eagerly began a course called “American Political Thought” at the University of Colorado, Denver.

My excitement quickly soured, however, after Professor Chad Shomura explained to the students in the room that most traditional “American Political Thought” courses are too focused on the achievements of white men.

As a consequence, he told us he had removed every single white male and their theoretical perspectives from the entire course curriculum.

This is echoed in the syllabus:

“This course aims to develop an understanding of American political life from the margins. Rather than surveying traditional figures of American political thought, it attends to historically marginalized voices at the crossings of race, gender, sexuality, and nation. It explores issues such as intersectionality, antiblack racism and the American Dream, ordinary life, borderlands and migration, public feelings, mental health, and settler colonialism. The materials we examine also exceed the usual genres of American Political Thought. They include, among other things, poems, an ethnography, academic articles, a novel, and a hacked tarot card set.”

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Our Dollar Is Going To Fall
March 21, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,  

         Gold is higher in the early morning trade report with the price now at $1,315.20, up $13.50 from the Comex close which happened before yesterday’s FOMC report with the high so far at $1,320.20 and the low at $1,312.50. Silver is up as well (not sure who is leading here Ag or Au) with the trade at $15.555, up 23.7 cents with the high at $15.65 and the low at $15.48. The US Dollar took a hit after the data release but has recovered (against Trumps weaker dollar demand) with the trade at 95.675, up 47.4 points inside a trading range between 95.705 and 95.295. Of course, all of this was done while we’re not trading and before the Comex sleepy time open. As expected, when Gold rises in the US Dollar, it rises even more in the secondary’s (emerging markets) with the Venezuelan Bolivar price at 13,135.56, gaining 99.87 Bolivar in a 24 hour period. Silver’s price gained 2.248 cents (HUGE!!!) with its price at 155.356 Bolivar. In Argentina, another country going into massive convulsions because of the exchange rate, Gold’s price before the FOMC was 53,322.03, now it’s priced at 53,730.56 gaining 408.53 Argentinian Pesos over night with Silver gaining 9.192 Argentinian Pesos at 635.484. These are very big gains brought on because of the swings caused by a major currency and not their own, wait till this hits under the US Dollar. No one’s seen anything yet!  

     The March Silver deliveries had a major jump in demand BEFORE yesterday’s FOMC data release with the count now at 101 Demands for Physical as buyers came in with needs proving a gain of only 17 contracts. However, yesterday’s Volume in March Silver totaled 94 swaps with the last purchase made at 8:57 am pst. Did someone jump in and get their requirements ahead of those already in cue? Watch Harvey’s count here because there may be some EFPS being passed over to the city in chaos or the purchases got stopped here draining more from COMEX, as less is getting pulled out of the ground globally. The Overall Open Interest in Silver is still gaining with the count now at 190,624 Overnighters proving 1,314 more shorts had to be placed in trade to stay the price from the buyers but not stopping the demands for physical at all.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is 100% true!

Posted by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do you remember the days when the sale of $1 billion worth of “precious paper” gold would cause a $25 or even $50 drop in gold’s price? Today they got a lousy 5 bucks for their troubles! The world she is a changin’!

Gold Tumbles Back Below $1300 As Someone Suddenly Dumps $1 Billion Of ‘Precious Paper’
March 29, 2019

As Europe closed, it seems someone decided now was a great opportunity to puke over $1 billion notional of paper gold into the futures market to send the precious metal back below the key $1300 level…

Huge volume spike…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot gold broke back below its 50DMA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More positive developments in Tanzania for ethical mining, from artisan to major.

East Africa’s First Gold Trading Hub To Fight Smuggling
March 18, 2019

Tanzania has launched an international gold trading centre in the gold-rich region of Geita.

Tanzania will thus join South Africa and Botswana, which boast a gold exchange hub and diamond bullion market respectively.

The centre, inaugurated on March 17, is among reforms introduced in the mining sector in the past three years to curb mineral smuggling.

The gold hub is meant to ease mineral trading, and ensure that businesses pay the required levies to the government.

Geita produces over 40 per cent of the gold exported from the country.

According to Geita Regional Commissioner Robert Gabriel, each of the five districts in the region will have one gold collection centre for small-scale miners, and two banks where gold trading will be taking place.

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Comex Opens, Now It’s Time To Go Back To Sleep…
March 19, 2019

Good Tuesday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is up again and hopefully it will stay that way when the Comex opens and we all go back to sleep (immediately after it opens) with the trade now at $1,308.50 (April) right beside the high of $1,308.80 with the low at $1,302.10. Silver is following with the May contract pegged at $15.41, up 8.8 cents and right beside its high at $15.42 with the low at $15.32. The Rollover in the currencies is complete with the June US Dollar trade now at 95.785, down 19.8 points and close to the low at 95.73 with the high at 95.975, of course all this was done way before the Comex Open and a hair past 5 am pst. At least in Venezuela, the currency prices remain steady (cough) with Gold’s price now at 13,068.64 Bolivar gaining 47.94 overnight with Silver pegged at 153.907, gaining only .699 Bolivar in value as we wait for the emerging currency markets volatility to infect the calm in the majors.   

      March Silver’s Deliveries are now showing a reduced count at 65 demands for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning proving a 10 count drop being delivered/settled/cleared somewhere between COMEX and the City and as we near the Brexit and Basel III date (3-29-19) that was set up a long time ago. Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained a bit more during yesterday’s nap time trading period at the Comex showing a gain of 481 Obligations making the count 187,344 Overnighters as of this morning’s report.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…and a century is a very long time frame!

Buy Gold, Sell Stocks Is the ‘Trade of Century’ Says One Hedge Fund
March 19, 2019

One of last year’s best-performing hedge funds says the “trade of the century” is to buy gold and sell stocks as risk assets are due for another meltdown.

It’s only a matter of time until the bearish bet pays off big, according to Crescat Capital LLC. While the Denver-based firm has only about $50 million under management, it has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index — with its Global Macro Fund returning 41 percent last year alone. Now the investment company says it’s ready to capitalize on an end of the economic cycle as indicators warn that a recession is imminent in the coming quarters.

The consensus is pointing to a recession in 2020 or 2021, Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, said by phone. “We think it’s a lot closer than that and we have a number of macro timing indicators that we look at.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

As I alluded to in today’s writing, the “madness of crowds”. Even though not correct, they are the majority…

Realizing How Great It Is To Be Here Now!
March 18, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,  

      Gold is trading higher, at least while I’m writing with the latest price at $1,303.70, up a dollar in between a high of $1,306 and the low at $1,298. Silver is barely up as well with its trade at $15.34, adding 1.6 cents to Friday’s close and close to the high at $15.36 than the tested low at $15.22. The Currency Rollover is today, part of the Triple Witch accounting swap out we’ve been following for decades, with the US Dollar trading 20 points lower at 96.39, which is the low so far, with the high at 96.54. All this of course was done some time before 5 am pst and the Comex Open. In Venezuela, where debt is considered far more valuable than physical anything (that is until last year’s little flip) is showing Gold’s price at 13,020.70 proving a minor gain of 4.99 Bolivar, with Silvers price now at 153.208 losing .20 of a Bolivar as we hear but cannot trust anything from the news services about real news there.     

      March Silver’s Delivery Demands are showing an undelivered count at 75 requests for physical with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. We doubt this number is correct since it was Friday’s open count and since we’ve gone thru this each Monday, we’ll wait for the Comex members to catch up with our requests, after all, we are the many against 1 or 2 Algos, too bad we can’t vote on this stuff, eh? Silver’s Overall Open Interest did drop a little on Friday before they stopped counting with the totals so far at 186,863 positions still in trade proving a loss of only 308 Overnighters as the count continues to fall in ever so slow a fashion all the while the international politicos are climaxing their dramas on how important it is for them to retain all their ill-gotten power over their voting populations.   

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

Lawsuit By Sandy Hook Victims Against Gun Manufacturer Allowed To Move Forward
March 14, 2019

After months of silence, the Connecticut Supreme Court on Thursday reinstated a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the families of nine victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting against Remington Arms, the manufacturer of the rifle used in the shooting.

The court’s narrow decision, overturning a lower court judge, rules that Remington can be sued over its marketing practices under a Connecticut state law, despite protections offered to gun manufacturers by federal law. The ruling sends the case back to the lower court.

The suit is a high-stakes challenge to gun companies, which have rarely been held liable for crimes committed with their products, and could mark a new front in the battle over gun regulations and corporate accountability. It centers on the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), a 2005 law that shields manufacturers and retailers from civil liability in lawsuits brought by victims of gun violence. An eventual ruling against Remington could establish legal precedent, opening doors for more lawsuits against gun manufacturers, and expose the company’s communications about its marketing plans.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Sunday reading.

Why Gold Is Still The Best Basis For Money
March 16, 2019

As we continue to enjoy the “Yellen gold standard,” now in its Powell phase — who knows how long it will last — let’s look at why the gold standard system worked so well for so many centuries, including nearly two centuries of U.S. history before the rupture in 1971, during which time the United States became the wealthiest country in the history of world.

In 1971, the economist Arthur Laffer — he was the chief economist of the Office of Management and Budget at the time — was asked what he thought the consequences would be of Nixon’s “closing of the gold window,” which effectively ended the Bretton Woods period when the dollar’s value was fixed at $35/ounce of gold.

“It won’t be as much fun to be an American anymore,” Laffer reportedly replied. And he was right.

But why? Why is it that the collective intelligence (let’s be generous) of today’s central bankers, and indeed all the central bankers since 1971, cannot outperform a yellow rock? This probably strikes some as bizarre, but it has always been thus. Way back in 1928, in a book called The Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Socialism and Capitalism, George Bernard Shaw declared:

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Posted by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams www.shadowstats.com

– Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes

– Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
– These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, Construction and Payrolls
– February Housing Starts (March 26th), January Trade Deficit (March 27th) and An Eviscerated Annual Industrial Production Benchmarking (March 27th) Are the Last Major Reports, Prior to the March 28th Final GDP Estimate; There Is Limited Chance of a Reprieve
– The Economy Is Weakening Sharply and Quickly, Due to the Overly Aggressive Federal Reserve Tightening and Rate Hikes
– Where Current U.S. Economic Activity Has Signaled a New Recession, Major Business Sectors, Such as Manufacturing and Construction, Never Recovered Fully from the Last One
– Accordingly, the March 20th FOMC Meeting Is Not Too Early to Address the Intensifying Business Collapse; Yet, the FOMC Is Expected to Sit on Its Hands

“Bullet Edition No. 3”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Did you have any doubt this is a credit bubble?

Bonds With “Worst-Ever Covenants” Are 3x Oversubscribed
March 15, 2019

Just how much investor appetite is there for bonds? So much, that even in a week that saw the second biggest equity inflow on record (after a 13 week drought) buying of bonds continued for a 10th consecutive week, rising to $7.01bn from $2.74bn the week prior.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This flood into fixed income continues despite repeated warnings about the dangers of the corporate debt bubble from such investing icons as DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach and Marathon’s Bruce Richards, not to mention the IMF and BIS, who have been focusing on the growing risk of mass downgrades in the $3 trillion BBB-space, which could translate into a tsunami of fallen angels during the next recession.

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