Posts Categorized: In The News

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

…because rates are so exorbitantly high!

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Global recession has arrived, any questions?

Collapse In Global M1 Signals A Worldwide Recession Has Arrived
January 14, 2019

By now everyone has seen some iteration of this chart showing that the annual change in central bank liquidity is now negative.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another way to visualize just the Fed’s balance sheet contraction is courtesy of this chart from Morgan Stanley which shows specifically which assets – Treasurys and MBS – are declining on a monthly basis.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Does anyone see a problem with this?

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

More evidence of the credit markets not working correctly.

U.S. Federal Reserve may need to backstop repo market: BAML
January 11, 2019

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Extreme volatility in a key funding market for banks as 2018 came to a close should serve as evidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve ought to be prepared to serve as a backstop to prevent the market from seizing up, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said on Friday.

The $2.2 trillion repurchase agreement (repo) market enables banks and Wall Street to raise short-term cash to finance their trades and loans by using Treasuries and other securities as collateral.

On Dec. 31, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a gauge on overnight repo rates, jumped to 3.15 percent, which was 75 basis points above the interest on excess reserves (IOER), or what the Fed pays banks on the excess reserves they leave at the central bank. Prior to the year-end spike, SOFR was running one basis point to six basis points above IOER.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Reset has begun, the last men standing will be gold and silver only. Currency will survive for commerce, but gold and silver will be your only store houses of value. This is a watershed event heralding the birth of the first reset.

Russia Buys Quarter of World Yuan Reserves in Shift From Dollar
January 9, 2018

Russia’s central bank dumped $101 billion in U.S. holdings from its huge reserves, shifting into euros and yuan last spring amid a new round of U.S. sanctions.

The central bank moved the equivalent of $44 billion each into the European and Chinese currencies in the second quarter, according to a report published on late Wednesday by the Bank of Russia, which discloses the data with a six-month lag. Another $21 billion was invested in the Japanese yen.

The Chinese currency accounted for 15 percent of total holdings at the last reading, up from 5 percent at the end of the first quarter, according to the report. That puts Russia’s yuan share at about ten times the average for global central banks, with its total holdings of the currency accounting for about a quarter of world reserves in yuan, according to International Monetary Fund data. Morgan Stanley estimated Russia was the main buyer of Chinese bonds last year.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Debt doesn’t matter…until it does!

Visualizing the Snowball of Government Debt
January 7, 2019

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Over the last five years, markets have pushed concerns about debt under the rug.

While economic growth and record-low interest rates have made it easy to service existing government debt, it’s also created a situation where government debt has grown in to over $63 trillion in absolute terms.

The global economic tide can change fast, and in the event of a recession or rapidly rising interest rates, debt levels could come back into the spotlight very quickly.

THE DEBT SNOWBALL

Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net and it rolls the world’s countries into a “snowball” of government debt, colored and arranged by debt-to-GDP ratios. The data itself comes from the IMF’s most recent October 2018 update.

The structure of the visualization is apt, because debt can accumulate in an unsustainable way if governments are not proactive. This situation can create a vicious cycle, where mounting debt can start hampering growth, making the debt ultimately harder to pay off.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Tight liquidity illustrated…

9/11: Finally the Truth Comes Out?
January 4, 2019

Paul Craig Roberts

Although the United States is allegedly a democracy with a rule of law, it has taken 17 years for public pressure to bring about the first grand jury investigation of 9/11. Based on the work of Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth led by Richard Gage, first responder and pilots organizations, books by David Ray Griffin and others, and eyewitness testimony, the Lawyers’ Committee for 9/11 Inquiry has presented enough hard facts to the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York to force his compliance with the provisions of federal law that require the convening of a federal grand jury to investigate for the first time the attacks of September 11, 2001. https://www.lawyerscommitteefor9-11inquiry.org

This puts the US Justice (sic) Department in an extraordinary position. Every informed person is aware that elements of the US government were involved either in the perpetration of the 9/11 attacks or in a coverup of the attacks. There will be tremendous pressures on the US Attorney’s office to have the grand jury dismiss the evidence as an unpatriotic conspiracy theory or otherwise maneuver to discredit the evidence presented by the Lawyers’ Committee, or modify the official account without totally discrediting it.

We can have hopes that the United States can establish the true story of its own Reichstag Fire, but I am not holding my breath that the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York can stand up to the powerful elements in the Deep State that perpetuated or covered up the 9/11 false flag attacks or that he is inclined to try.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This man has a very good track record!

“The Criminals Who Run The Deep State Will Be Exposed”: Kim Dotcom Teases “Next Round Of Leaks”
January 5, 2019

Hacker and serial entrepreneur Kim Dotcom is out with a new prediction for 2019:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Get ready for the next round of leaks.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Have you ever wondered “who” would be able to buy your house if credit was not available? It won’t be long before you see…the tide is going out on a naked financial world!

Global Housing Markets From Hong Kong To Sydney Join Global Rout
January 5, 2019

It’s not just stocks: the global housing market is in for a rough patch, which has turned ugly for many homeowners and investors from Vancouver to London, with markets in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia already showing increased signs of softening.

Macro factors have triggered a global economic slowdown that is unraveling luxury marketplaces worldwide, according to Bloomberg. As a result, a turning point has been reached, with home prices globally now under pressure, and rising mortgage rates leading to depressed consumer optimism, while also triggering a housing affordability crisis, S&P Global Ratings said in a December report. To make matters worse, a simultaneous drop in house prices globally could lead to “financial and macroeconomic instability,” the IMF warned in a report last April.

While each metropolis globally has its distinct characteristics of what triggered its real estate slowdown, there are a few common denominators at play: rising borrowing costs, quantitative tightening, a crackdown on money laundering and increased government regulation, emerging market capital outflows and volatile financial markets. Bloomberg notes that there is also declining demand from Chinese buyers, who were the most powerful force in many housing markets globally over the course of this cycle.

“As China’s economy is affected by the trade war, capital outflows have become more difficult, thus weakening demand in markets including Sydney and Hong Kong,” said Patrick Wong, a real estate analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

But this can’t happen because she’s a globalist and a key piece in the deep state…right?

UNDER A HACK Angela Merkel Has Personal Details Hacked And Published Online In Mass Attack On German Politicians
January 4, 2019

ANGELA Merkel’s personal details have been hacked and published online in a mass attack targeting hundreds of German politicians, according to reports.

Private chats, financial and contact details of Germany’s Chancellor and her colleagues and opponents have been posted on Twitter.

Chancellor Merkel is one of hundreds of German politicians and public figures targeted in the mass hack attack

The only political party not targeted in the attack was the far-right AfD.

Data belonging to celebrities and leading journalists from the country have also been published.

The leak emerged last month in the form of a digital advent calendar on Twitter, reports the BBC.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

The bulls will tell you it is different this time …

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signals Onset of a New Recession, as Nominal Monetary Base Drops to a Five-Year Low
– Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
– Intensifying Consumer-Liquidity Squeeze Reflected in Downside Revisions to Previously Estimated Auto Sales, Housing and Third-Quarter GDP
– Third-Quarter 2018 Final Sales (GDP Net of an Increasing Inventory Buildup) Slowed to a Revised 1.03% (Initially 1.43%) from a Second-Quarter 5.33%
– Annual Growth in November Freight Activity Plunged to a Two-Year Low
– November 2018 Residential Construction and Sales Continued in Deepening Downtrends, Well Shy of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Highs
– November Manufacturing in Record 131st Straight Month of Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 4.7% (-4.7%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak; Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
– 2008 Banking-System Insolvency Arose Under the Watchful Eye of the Banking-System-Owned Federal Reserve
– Subsequent FOMC Actions in the Last Decade Centered on Propping the Banks, Not on Restoring a Healthy Economy
– Stock Market Turmoil Has Begun to Respond to the Intensifying Effects of Financial-System Distortions and Instabilities

“No. 981: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Residential Construction, GDP and Stocks”

www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I guess the question is, how do you sell if there is no liquidity? Long popcorn is probably advised!

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Only this time the central banks and sovereign treasuries also have impaired balance sheets…

Two-Year Yield Dips Below Key Fed Rate For First Time Since 2008
January 3, 2018

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. two-year Treasury note yield US2YT=RR dropped below 2.4 percent on Thursday afternoon, reaching parity with the federal funds effective rate for the first time since 2008.

The fed funds effective rate, which was 2.4 percent on Thursday, moves within the Federal Reserve’s key policy range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent. The market move suggests investors believe the U.S. central bank will not be able to continue to tighten monetary policy as its forecast suggests, after having lifted benchmark interest rates four times in 2018.

“This is a big deal,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“The market is effectively saying that at some point in the next 24 months, the Fed is going to have to not only stop hiking, but actively start easing.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

I can’t think of anything else to say other than…Lock her up too! I would suggest in Hillary’s cell but that has to be reserved for Bill as I can think of no greater punishment for either Hill or Bill than to be locked up together!