Posted August 23rd, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Resolute Longs in Silver Still Refuse To Leave
August 23, 2019

 Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,   

      Gold still has some pressures to deal with in the early morning with the trade at $1,505.80, down $2.70 inside a real tight trading range between $1,508.80 and $1,503.00. Silver is trading in the green with December’s price at $17.20 up 2.2 cents and being the high so far with the low at $17.105. The volatility is the exact opposite in the US Dollar with its value pegged at 98.32, up 25.6 points and close to the high at 98.35 with the low at 98.085. All of this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and (the soon to be fired?) Jay Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole.     

      We show nothing but gains today in the emerging markets watch with the Venezuelan Bolivar adding 23.97 to the value of Gold with the current price at 15,039.18 Bolivar with Silver trading at 171.785 Bolivar, putting back 1.298 into yesterday’s price. Argentina’s Peso added 1,225.42 to Gold’s value with its price now at 83,673.90 Peso’s with Silver at 955.837 Peso’s showing 19.697 being added as well. Over in Europe, the Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 8,679.27 it too showing a gain of 13.67 in Lira value with Silver adding 0.7687 to its price at 99.1382 Lira.     

      We are getting closer and closer to the Sept Delivery cycle with its count still highly elevated at 72,183, but we still have to deal with August’s final days with its count still at 1 lone buyer with his demand for 5,000 troy ounces and with no Volume or trading range to offer once again. Apparently the Resolute Longs are refusing to leave the field of play as the Open Interest count increased by 765 Overnighters giving us a total of 235,591 Obligations still in play. WTH are we looking at during this rollover period? It appears the Resolutes are still buying the dip and the shorts are still trying their “don’t flinch” approach. Is this the edge of your seat, get the popcorn out, and let’s see what happens part of the show? It sure could be (this batch of popcorn needs more butter)!   

      September Silver’s options come off the board this coming Tuesday, with the obvious move being to sell off the profitable positions before the rollover, and that may still occur. But that hasn’t happened yet with last night’s count of “Deep In The Money Options” still totaling 15,124 “Rights to Buy” at and below the $17 strike. The reduction in count from last Friday to now is only 126 in total. To add to this anomaly the Open Interest count in the $17 Call was 1,426 “Rights to Buy” held 2 days ago, now we have a count of 1,503 proving someone is adding positions not subtracting.    

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Posted August 22nd, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Resolutes Remain Strong! That IS Impressive!
August 22, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,   

      Gold is getting hit after the gagged J-Hole event with December’s trade at $1,503.40, down $12.20 and right beside the usual London low at $1,502.10 with the high at $1,514.60. Silver is correcting as well with its December trade at $17.07, down 22 cents with the London low right here at $17.055 with the high to beat at $17.265. The US Dollar is still not responding to any of the precious metals activity with its’ value still stuck at 98.21, up 3.1 points after reaching 98.29 with the low at 98.005. All this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open and the London close.    

      We have mixed signals in the emerging currencies this morning with Venezuela showing Gold’s trade at 15,015.21, losing 68.89 in Bolivar value with Silver at 170.487, losing 1.298 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold priced at 82,448.48, proving a drop of 198.50 A-Pesos with Silver now valued at 936.140 A-Pesos showing a drop in value of 5.165. These corrections don’t seem like much movement compared to the past ones, do they? In Turkey Gold has gained value with the trade now at 8,665.60 T-Lira proving the increase of 40.32 with Silver at 98.3695 T-Lira’s it too proving a gain of 0.1477 in value.    

      The August Silver deliveries now total 1 lone demand for physical and with Zero Volume up on the board so far this morning proving 4 receipts where settled out during yesterday’s trade either here or in London with the odds of delivery here being lower than the count (based on %’s). This is where Le Metro Pole’s Harvey Organ and Nick B’s stats matter the most. Silver’s Overall Open Interest shows a slight drop in count with the total at 234,826 Overnighter’s still in play and only taking out about ½ of what was piled on before the FOMC meeting proving 3,838 Obligations leaving the field of play. Regardless of the price swings, the Resolutes Remain Strong, and that IS impressive!    

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Posted August 21st, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Resolute Buyer(s) Vs. Overwhelmed Silver Shorts
August 21, 2019

 Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,    

      Gold is trading lower this FOMC morning with December’s trade at $1,510.30, down $5.40 after dipping down to $1,506.50 with the early morning high to beat at $1,518.40. Silver is held back as well with Decembers price now at $17.20, down 8.6 cents after it was pushed to $17.115 with the high close by at $17.265. The US Dollar doesn’t seem to be moving at all compared to the metals with the value pegged at 98.03, down 3.3 points and very close to the low at 98.02 with the high up at 98.18. All of this occurred before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      The emerging markets currency watch is showing price reductions with the Venezuelan Bolivar now valuing Gold at 15,084.12 showing a 63.92 Bolivar drop in value with Silver now priced at 171.785 showing a gain (only due to the Sept/Dec rollout) of 1.997 Bolivar. In Argentina, the Peso now has Gold valued at 82,646.98 showing a loss of 533.01 A-Pesos with Silver now at 941.305 A-Pesos. The Turkish Lira now has Gold trading at 8,625.28 proving a loss of 52.36 T-Lira with Silver now gauged at 98.2218 Lira.    

      The Delivery Count for August Silver proves a purchase was made during yesterday’s trades as the buyer came in and added 4 more fully paid for contracts to the mix leaving the Open Interest at 5, also proving 1 buyer got his receipt for physicals as well. So far this morning we have Zero Volume and no trading range to offer as we wind down the physical deliveries for the month.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Helicopter money? Ya’ think!

PIMCO Starts Dumping Bonds, Fears “Helicopter Money” Around The Corner
August 20, 2019

Amid a collapse in global bond yields (to record lows) and soaring aggregate volumes of central-bank-created negative-yielding debt, at least one big bond shop is dumping sovereigns.

Source: Bloomberg

“We’re a lot more defensive,” warned PIMCO’s Daniel Ivascyn, group CIO at the massive bond manager, noting that after the best year-to-date performance since 2003, the fund is paring its positions in government debt on fears that a breakthrough in US-China trade talks could trigger a violent sell-off.

“Even if we get a narrow trade agreement [between the US and China] we could see a pretty powerful snapback in yields.”

However, as The FT reports, while PIMCO is lightening up on their positions in the UK and European bond markets, it is reducing exposure to the US government bond markets less.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Mark Mobius is pretty mainstream…is common sense making a comeback?

Mark Mobius: Buy Gold At Any Price

August 20, 2019

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week we reported that the mainstream is turning bullish on gold, and in recent months, a number of prominent investors including Paul Tudor Jones, Thomas Kaplan and David Roche have all talked up the yellow metal. This week, we have another well-known veteran investor saying buy gold.

During an interview with Bloomberg, Mark Mobius said that at this point investors should buy gold “at any level.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This in front of Congress…where is the press?

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Why FISCAL STIMULATION MUST OCCUR in the USA WELL BEFORE 2020 JUNE. There is no other alternative. Fiscal Stimation demands monetary expansion, as that is simply axiomatic. Since the tool of Monetary Stimulation is worn-out globally, these above facts are going to provide a currency event resulting in inflation.

Truckers And Farmers Who Voted For Trump Are Starting To Blame His Policies For Their Economic Woes
August 21, 2019

The right-leaning laborers who helped elect Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 are starting to sour on the real estate scion — truck drivers and farmers.

“He has not affected our business in a positive way,” one truck driver, who asked for anonymity to protect their small business, told Business Insider. “He’s killing our business. If consumers aren’t buying, then there is no demand. This really isn’t about my political leanings — it’s pure business.”

On Monday, Trump reportedly had to have a two-hour Cabinet meeting about increasing blowback from farmers. Trump campaigned in Iowa with the promise to support ethanol, which helped secured the vote from the state’s 140,000 farmers, who are largely involved in corn.

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Posted August 20th, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – The Silver Options Board Is In Play!
August 20, 2019

Great and Wonderful Turnaround Tuesday Folks,    

      So it looks like, at this early stage in the morning, that there was only a 2 day (Friday/Monday) pullback in precious metals with green showing up on the monitors with Gold leading at $1,516.70, up $5.10 after being pushed down to $1,503 with the high close by at $1,518.80. Silver is trading in the positive as well and with another change upcoming most likely by tomorrow as the Open Interest in December Silver is about to surpass September in rather early fashion (before the options expiration) with September Silver now at $17.00, up 6 cents and close by it’s high at $17.03 with the low just 1 penny above yesterday’s low at $17.83. The US Dollar has remained Steady Eddie during this change up with the trade at 98.27, up 4.9 points and right close to the high at 98.30 with the low close by at 98.165. All of this activity occurred before 5 am pst, the Comex Open, and London’s EFP closing.    

      We have green lights in all emerging currency markets that we watch with the Venezuelan Bolivar showing Gold trading at 15,148.04 Bolivar showing a 123.84 gain in value with Silver adding 1.698 Bolivar with the price at 169.788. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 83,179.99 adding 695.07 A-Pesos with Silver at 932.327 proving an additional 9.50 A-Pesos being added to the price as the trade heads to and above the 1,000 Peso mark again. Over in Turkey, Gold is now at 8,677.64 proving the addition of 254.62 in T-Lira value with Silver now at 97.2593, it too adding 3.0324 T-Lira’s.   

      August Silvers Deliveries are still stuck at 2 fully paid for contracts, as we observed during yesterday’s trade a Volume of 1. We think this wound up being a spread trade that turned into a delivery as we observe this morning Zero Volume, but those trades in parenthesis are still there showing a bunch of numbers with no additional activity. It appears that yesterday was nothing but another attempt by the shorts to scare out a few longs which failed, with the Overall Open Interest now at 230,789 proving the addition and failure of 3,426 more shorts being added to the game that now needs to be extracted, and by the end of the month too!  

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Posted August 19th, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Welcoming a Week of Total Uncertainty
August 19, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,     

      We start the day off with lower prices in the precious metals with Gold taking most of its reduction within (literally) the last hour of trade with the December price now at $1,504.30, down $19.30 and as usual right beside the low at $1,503.30 with the high to beat at $1,523.60. Silver is following with the trade at $16.83 down 29.2 cents and it too right beside the low at $16.82 with the high at $17.175 (Sept). The Volume for the Silver punch totaled 29,895 out of 104,065 (Sept totals) as of this write up with December Gold’s volume at 151,794 with its OI at 447,065. IOO (in our opinion) this amount of pump and dump wreaks of desperation. The US Dollar’s trade is nothing like the precious metals volatility with its value now at 98.10, up 9.3 points close to the high at 98.13 with the low just as close at 98.005, all of this was done pretty much during Honest London’s trading period, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the end of London ETF settlements for the day. 
 
      One would expect a much harsher treatment under our 3 emerging currencies watch, especially after last week’s stellar rise in all with the Venezuelan Bolivar pricing Gold at 15,024.20, proving a loss of 202.74 Bolivar with Silver now trading at 168.090 Bolivar, showing a loss of only 3.495 over the weekend. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold trading at 82,484.92 taking back 4,729.25 A-Pesos with Silver taking back 60.073 with the price now at 922.827 A-Pesos. Over in Turkey, the Lira now has Gold pegged at 8,423.02, dropping 52.11 in T-Lira value with Silver at 94.2269 losing 1.2827 in T-Lira value.    

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Posted August 17th, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver’s Call Options Count Keeps Climbing
August 16, 2019

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,  

     Gold is lower in the early morning report with the trade now at $1,524.60 down $6.70 after dipping down to $1,515.90 with the high to beat at $1,538.60. Silver is down as well (barely) with the trade at $17.18, off by 3.4 cents after it too was knocked down to a low of $17.03 with the daily high to beat at $17.315 with another target close by at $17.37 made this past Wednesday. If we pass that price, it will make a new high for this run and the year. The US Dollar is still the reason why precious metals are manipulated lower and with its value now at 98.12, up 11.5 points after it touched a high of 98.175 with the low to beat at 97.99. All this happened way before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

     The emerging markets currency watch shows a day of profit taking with Gold’s price, under the Venezuelan Bolivar, now at 15,226.94, barely losing 2 Bolivar with Silver priced at 171.585, a reduction of only .05 Bolivar. The Argentina Peso now has Gold now priced at 87,214.17, a reduction of 4,678.37 A-Pesos from yesterday’s count and after rising over 80,000 Pesos since last Friday with Silver now at 982.900, taking 52.09 A-Peso’s off of yesterday’s tally and after adding a total of 227.45 Pesos since last week’s closing. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 8,475.13 proving a loss of 57.77 T-Lira with Silver now gauged at 95.5096 showing a cut in value of .6506 in T-Lira.    

     The August Silver Delivery demands shows a reduction in count of 91 leaving the demand count at 49 fully paid for contracts still waiting for receipts and with Zero Volume on the board so far today with no trading range (yesterday or) today. Silver’s Overall Open Interest now stands at 229,355 Overnighters proving a drop in count of 4,360 Obligations while keeping Silver just above the $17 mark leaving us the impression that the shorts are exiting with only 11 days left before the Sept Call Options come off the board. Of note here is the “Deep in the Money Calls” in September that tally over 15,250 options with the right to buy at $17 and below, all the way down to $7.25. In short, if a portion of these “Long Calls” are to be used to exit some futures shorts trade, then someone may be preparing for something very big and soon. Please note this is only one of many possible outcomes.    

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Posted August 16th, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

You already knew this but you might want to read the comment section for a few laughs?

The Recession Question We Should Be Asking Isn’t ‘When’ But ‘How Bad?’
August 15, 2019

It’s taken a while, but equity investors finally seem to get what bond investors have been signalling for months. Back in March, the yield curve for three-month and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverted, meaning the three-month bills were yielding more than the 10-year notes, which isn’t the right way around if everything is hunky-dory in economics-land. But stock markets went on to have a pretty good April, a so-so May and then an even better June, as investors paid more attention to the Federal Reserve’s flip-flop than to the yellow light the three-month/10-year curve was flashing.

But on Wednesday, a more traditionally watched yield curve — the one between the two-year and 10-year Treasuries — also inverted. And so did the corresponding curve in the U.K. Add to that some dismal data from Germany and China and — well, oh yeah, the yield curve inversion mattered again.

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Posted August 15th, 2019 by Bill Holter & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Harry Dent gets stuffed again only one day after pontificating…I don’t think he will need much time to see $1,525 in the rearview mirror, then maybe he withdraws his “$700 and possibly $250” gold forecast? I have publicly requested several times we debate the facts, and nothing but crickets from him. I know I am not “Harvard trained” and instead only went to the school of hard knocks and common sense but I renew my offer to debate the economic/financial facts. I will accept anyone he would like as moderator…what do you say Harry?

Harvard Trained Economist: Gold Fails Bullish Breakout, Stocks More Likely To Breakout Instead
August 14, 2019

Harry Dent says this could be it for gold. Here’s why…

by Harry Dent via Economy & Markets

The funny thing is that gold and stocks currently seem to like the same thing: more money printing.

Treasury bonds keep falling in rates and we’re seeing a slowing global economy despite Trump’s tax cuts and central banks leaning towards easing. That has hurt stocks a bit, as has the recent near break-off in trade negotiations with China. Markets were fearing a currency war now that the trade war is at an impasse.

So, no surprise gold has been rallying here. But for stocks, the surprise is that they’re holding up as well as they are considering the slow growth foreshadowed by the bond markets and trade impasses.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Will The London Precious Metals Sucker Punch Keep The Prices Down?
August 15, 2019

Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,  

     Gold just got a sucker punch right in price with the trade now at $1,524.80, down $2.80 and recovering from the hit that brought the price down to $1,518.30 with the high to beat at $1,534.90. Silver was negative first, giving the Silver Signal another shot with its trade now at $17.175, down 10.5 cents with the low at $17.075 and the high at $17.37. The US Dollar is also weaker in our early morning report with its value pegged at 97.72, down 10.6 points and close to the low at 97.68 with the high at 97.915. All this was done just before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.  

     The South American Currencies are still in mass print mode with the Venezuelan Bolivar now pricing Gold’s value at 15,228.94 Bolivar proving a gain of 31.96 with Silver now at 171.535 also gaining .299 Bolivar since yesterday’s early report. Argentina has been in the news of late with rumors of defaulting or collapsing everywhere and now has Gold valued at 91,892.54 giving the people, stuck under that currency, a 6,852.62 A-Peso value jump with Silver now at 1,034.99 Peso’s giving a jump of 80.783 A-Pesos as the Money of the People passes the 1,000 Peso mark. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 8,532.98 subtracting another 33.06 from yesterday’s lower move with Silver now pegged at 96.1602 showing a slight increase of 0.0551 in T-Lira value.  

     August Silver deliveries continue to move along with the demand count now at 140 fully paid for contracts and with a Volume of 47 up on the board so far this morning, and once again, with no trading range to report, just like yesterday when 41 contracts got delivered either here or over in London. Based on Harvey’s stats, these demands were probably delivered over in London and most likely settled in paper. We’re starting to see the rolling out of the September contracts and the roll into the December with Silver’s Overall Open Interest now at 233,715 Overnighters proving 717 Obligations left the field of play when Silver made another new high for the year. I find it interesting that the Open interest in the September Silver $17 Calls are still elevated in count showing 1,261 purchased Calls giving the count a loss of only 400 contracts over last past week to now. I’ll do another Options tally for tomorrow’s report to see where we are in the total count including the “In The Money” situation in the Sept trade, so stay tooned! It may mean something.  

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