Posts Categorized: General Editorial

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Gold is on its way back into the monetary system. That is certain.

It is also certain that one method being examined at the highest level is the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, Modernized and Revitalized and no longer directly connected to interest rates.

If you are one of the gold gang that fears Volcker as an advisor to Obama, then you are ignorant of Volcker’s previous position on gold early in his career. I believe he is this time pro-gold because of the Mother of All Crises – his description of the conditions now.

Volcker does not waste words, nor is he glitzy. This is the Mother of All Crises, settlement of which demands a gold criterion which is the FRGCR.

The price will float but around a pivot point of $1650 (or higher). It will more than likely be within $200 based on expansion or contraction of a measure of US international debt.

Stable Money Is the Key to Recovery
How the G-20 can rebuild the ‘capitalism of the future.’
By JUDY SHELTON
NOVEMBER 14, 2008

Tomorrow’s "Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy" in Washington will have a stellar cast. Leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations will be there, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who initiated the whole affair, in order, as he put it, "to build together the capitalism of the future," will be in attendance, along with the host, our own President George W. Bush, and the chiefs of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations.

When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window some 37 years ago, it marked the end of a golden age of robust trade and unprecedented global economic growth. The Bretton Woods system derived its strength from a commitment by the U.S. to redeem dollars for gold on demand.

True, the right of convertibility at a pre-established rate was granted only to foreign central banks, not to individual dollar holders; therein lies the distinction between the Bretton Woods gold exchange system and a classical gold standard. Under Bretton Woods, participating nations agreed to maintain their own currencies at a fixed exchange rate relative to the dollar.

Since the value of the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 per ounce of gold — guaranteed by the redemption privilege — it was as if all currencies were anchored to gold. It also meant all currencies were convertible into each other at fixed rates.

Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman, was at Camp David with Nixon on that fateful day, Aug. 15, when the system was ended. Mr. Volcker, serving as Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs at the time, had misgivings; and he has since noted that the inflationary pressures which caused us to go off the gold standard in the first place have only worsened. Moreover, he suggests, floating rates undermine the fundamental tenets of comparative advantage.

"What can an exchange rate really mean," he wrote in "Changing Fortunes" (1992), "in terms of everything a textbook teaches about rational economic decision making, when it changes by 30% or more in the space of 12 months only to reverse itself? What kind of signals does that send about where a businessman should intelligently invest his capital for long-term profitability? In the grand scheme of economic life first described by Adam Smith, in which nations like individuals should concentrate on the things they do best, how can anyone decide which country produces what most efficiently when the prices change so fast? The answer, to me, must be that such large swings are a symptom of a system in disarray."

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Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Let today be your answer to the many question concerning whether gold will ever rise again. The answer is it will to $1200 and then onward to $1650.

I suspect that we could soon have a financial/felony experience that could land on the dollar like a piece of lead.

I suspect that the instant the USDX breaks its present up-trend line from .72 to about .89, it will look like the dollar stepped into an elevator door and found no elevator there.

I suspect that the next move in gold will witness the massive short covering in all variety of shares, both majors and juniors.

Under no circumstances give away your insurance (gold and all things gold) and if you have then for your sake buy your insurance policy back ASAP (gold and all that is gold).

Gold is a currency that you will see perform as the currency of choice. There is no doubt we are headed into a planetary Weimar experience to some degree.

Dollars are being created faster now than in any other period in history. The Fed and treasury are guaranteeing everything from money market funds to large corporate entities in one way or another.

The first valuation of worthless OTC derivatives via a public sale of these at .0875 to .02 cents shocked anyone with a brain. Now the downturn in business is hitting financial entities and shortly litigation will smoke whatever is left.

The FDIC is already yelling for additional and significant funding from congress as their capital contracts on every Friday’s bailout and their responsibility to cover now goes to GE, a non-bank with no depositors.

People expect things to return to normal in 2010. That is a fairy tale.

All these bailouts and Federal guarantees on credit items constitute a white wash on a falling economic structure going out of control and soon.

The out of control point of major planetary dislocation is between today and 66 days from now.

INSURANCE ON SALE

Gold is the only viable insurance. The US dollar is not viable insurance because there is simply too much of it and that amount is growing every day. That makes the US dollar untrustworthy.

Gold is the only viable insurance. Clearly equities (with the exception of precious metals shares) are not.

Gold is the only viable insurance. US Treasury bills are not because the yelling at all the rating agencies in Washington today just might get US credit downgraded.

General commodities have been viable, but by nature they are too wild and from now on will be selective until Pakistan implodes and Weimar appears

Banks cannot offer insurance as they are in the main bankrupt.

Insurance companies cannot offer you sound insurance as they are now broke by OTC derivatives.

Money market funds are not insurance, making gold the only viable insurance.

Retirement programs are no longer insurance and with Motor’s bankruptcy pending they can simply disappear into Chapter 11.

Pensions are simply too large for the government agency to insure.

Jobs are no longer insurance as companies are run by lawyers and accountants.

Equity in your home is not insurance because it simply does not exist.

Your family is no longer insurance because they have the same problems you do.

The assumption your kids will take care of you in your old age is not viable insurance no matter what you think.

Gold has no liability attached to it and is therefore the only viable insurance as honest money.

Gold is universally exchangeable, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold has historically performed perfectly in maintaining buying power, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold is the only viable insurance because it is Honest Money without liability or agenda.

Since gold is the only viable insurance and because everyone needs it, gold will trade at levels of at least $1200 and $1650.

I could go on but gold is all there is that will protect you from the White Wash being applied to the Walking Dead entities by the Fed and Treasury on a structure that is in fact in a free fall.

I am not the least concerned about gold and believe you should not be either as long as you have no margin and understand what gold really is: the only honest currency and only historically functioning insurance policy. There is no other viable insurance in this most unusual situation.

Please review the Formula as the US Federal Budget is going ballistic as the TIC report contracts like a turtle into its shell.

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

  1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
  2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
  3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
  4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
  5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
  6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
  7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
  8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit)
  9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
  10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
  11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
  12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear International Friends of Gold,

If you are tired of being had by paper gold DOING WHAT IT DID TO YOU THIS US MORNING, the following is the only course of action to end the games being played at your expense. Gold you take delivery of can be insured and shipped anywhere on the globe by Brinks and other recognized express services.

Delivery Process for Gold or Silver:

Delivery – Prudential holds the receipt in PFG’s account for customer
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. Receipt is booked to customers account
5. Monthly storage charge passed on to customer’s account(about $50.00).

Physical Delivery – Customer wants bars in their procession
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. We will provide the customer with name and phone number of the 
individual at the depository to contact.
5. Customer makes arrangements for the physical delivery

CIGA JB Slear, who is in the commodity business, offers his services to assist anyone seeking physical delivery of metals. He will guide you through the entire process, including arrangements for delivery.

To be totally clear, I expect JB not to discuss any type of speculation with you but ONLY help you acquire 100 ounce gold bars. Once 21,000 bars have been taken the paper gold’s reign over the price of gold is over.

CIGA JB Slear can be reached at the following:

Fort Wealth Trading Co. LLC
www.FortWealth.com
866-443-0868 ext 104

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Quantitive Easing – the direction the Fed is taking, saying they no longer are interested in buying toxic OTC derivatives with little or no value.

This change may well be a result of Bloomberg’s suit to force the Fed to reveal what these assets are on their balance sheet. This forced change to Quantitive Easing is the strongest tool for blasting trillions into economies.

If you know anything about, monetary science, gold is down on one of the greatest positive gold factors.

In the Japanese experience banks and other institutions did not renew lending significant enough for any positive effect. Many simply took the funds to rebuild their shattered balance sheets.

Quantitive Easing does not provide a basis for dollar strength, no matter what the algorithms say.

Not only was it an internal failure but it took the Yen down about 20%.

The talking heads are now saying that the dollar is the measure of how bad the economy will become. That is foolish in today’s situation

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As the balance sheet of the Fed turns toxic on the asset side, the US dollar as the common share of this balance sheet must go down

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
October 25, 2008

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued its weekly H.4.1 report, which provides details of the Fed’s balance sheet. Once upon a time, this was one of the least interesting of the government’s many releases of data. These days, it’s become one of the most exciting.

The essence of the Fed’s balance sheet used to be quite simple. The Fed’s primary operations would consist of either buying outstanding Treasury securities or issuing loans to banks through its discount window. It paid for these transactions by creating credits in accounts that banks hold with the Federal Reserve, known as reserve deposits. Banks can turn those reserves into green cash any time they desire, so the process is sometimes loosely summarized as saying that the Fed pays for the Treasury bills it buys or loans it extends by "printing money". Before the excitement began, the Fed’s assets consisted primarily of the Treasury securities it had acquired over time (about $800 billion as of August 2007) plus its discount loans (an insignificant number at that time). Its liabilities consisted primarily of cash held by the public (about $800 billion a year ago) plus the reserve deposits held by banks (which again used to be a very small number).

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The Carry Trade
The Return of the Geeks
Jun 07, 2006

I have been thinking about the nightmare carry trade scenario. In other words, what is the worst possible situation for carry trade players?

For those unfamiliar with the term ‘carry trade,’ I will use the definition found on Freebuck.com.

“Carry trade – The speculation strategy that borrows an asset at one interest rate, sells the asset, then invests those funds into a different asset that generates a higher interest rate yield. Profit is acquired by the difference between the cost of the borrowed asset and the yield on the purchased asset.”

The nightmare carry trade scenario: the six conditions

I view the nightmare scenario something like the following:

1. End of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan
2. End of ZIRP in Japan (Rising interest rates)
3. Rising interest rates in Europe
4. Falling interest rates in the U.S.
5. Tightening credit in the U.S.
6. A rising yen vs. the U.S. dollar

The nightmare carry trade scenario: quantitative easing has ended

Quantitative easing has already ended in Japan. Quantitative easing simply means excessive printing of money by the Bank of Japan in order to defeat the deflation that has been raging for about 18 years.

I believe that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing) prolonged Japan’s deflation, but for now, that is irrelevant. The key point is that both are about to come to an end. Proof of the

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Quantitive Easing at an unprecedented rate (certainly to take place) combined with 1% interest rates in the US is a road to Weimar. The dollar and the Fed are at the helm.

Therefore:
If you know anything about monetary science, gold is down on the greatest positive factor for gold.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold is a currency. Gold is not a commodity. It has always been so. It will always remain so. That will once again be proven an axiom when you look back at this period in time.

Do not throw away your insurance. Protect yourself by distancing yourself from your financial agents. Take delivery of paper shares or become a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent.

If you can afford to, take delivery of both gold and silver from the COMEX.

Now your insurance companies are major risks as they have been gambling in OTC derivatives.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Lie-bor,

We all want to thank you for your excellent demonstration of duty performed for the financial public welfare and donor central banks.

However you might just be pushing a tad too far. It is clear that you are dropping rates so consistently and significantly you intend to go below zero before next Wednesday.

We all know that your quoted rates are your published rates on loans of under $10USD fully backed by $20USD for a term of 12 hours.

Maybe a one day pop up of one basis point would give the entire process some credibility?

Sincerely,
Jim

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Dear CIGAs,

Tax expatriation is the renunciation of US citizenship deemed by the IRS as a move to escape US taxation. You think the US IRS would deem otherwise?

Many of you have called and emailed concerning the subject. The general opinion seems to be that my comment was incorrect. Before making judgments on the subject and the impending changes to the act of 1995 based on, as all things seem to be, 9/11 (to become effective 01/1/09), please consult the following:

Taxation Expatriation: Will the Fast Act Stop Wealthy Americans From Leaving The United States?
by BG Cantley

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat

(A) any United States citizen who relinquishes citizenship, and …… The individual expatriate proposal would replace current law on a prospective …

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