Posts Categorized: General Editorial

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Dear Friends,

There are only two things you need to know:

1. Hyperinflation takes birth and is currency-visible during major economic upheavals. There is NO historical truth that business recovery is a necessary criterion to transmute massive increases in money supply into hyperinflation.

2. What has been the major cause of the transmutation of massive liquidity into hyperinflation has been one form or another of Quantitative Easing combined with a loss of confidence in the inflator.

Quantitative Easing does not sterilize it’s offspring – violent inflation. We will see this offspring not in the far future but in 2009, 2010, 2011 and maybe much further.

It is akin to the Japanese Sci-Fi out of the 70s titled “ The Green Blob That Ate The Earth.” It just grew and grew until it consumed everything.

For the moron financial TV hosts claiming that major inflation is well down the road because inflation requires a business recovery to occur, tell them to review:

Angola 1991-1999
Argentina 1981 – 1992
Belarus 1993 – 2008
Bolivia 1984 – 1986
Bosnia – Herzegovina 1992 – 1993
Brazil 1986 -1994
Chile 1971 – 1981
China 1948 – 1955
Georgia 1993 -1995
Germany 1919 -1923
Greece 1943 – 1953 At the high point prices doubled every 28 hours. Greek inflation reached a rate of 8.5 billion percent per month.
Hungry 1944 – 1946
Israel 1971 – 1985 (price controls instituted)
Japan 1934 – 1951
Nicaragua 1987 – 1990
Peru 1987 – 1991
Poland 1990 – 1994
Romania 1998 – 2006
Turkey 1990 – 2001
Ukraine 1992 – 1995
USA 1773 – not worth a Continental
Yugoslavia 1989 – 1994
Zaire 1989 – present (now the Congo)
Zimbabwe – 2000 to present. November of 2008 – inflation rate of 516 quintillion percent

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar Republic

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

First they geek net out about 40% of OTC derivatives, not knowing the credit conditions of the counterparties to these net outs. Apparently winning and losing does not count. Performance ability of a special performance contract counts less.

After that they declare there is no problem with OTC derivatives due to some magic wand of computer technology that forgets about insolvency, taking notional value to real value and expressing the risks inherent in all OTC derivatives as miniscule compared to notional. If these risks are so small what is all the hubbub about?

Truth in statistics simply does not exist in an amoral world where deceit is a virtue and the most successful predator is the person to be admired. It is a world of takers and destroyers, not givers and builders.

The ability to get an honest number on OTC derivatives no longer exists.

Treat the symptoms and hide the problem is the formula for destruction, not correction.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

If Chairman Volcker became Secretary of the US Treasury at this time that would be friendly to gold. However his suggestions contained herein are the opposite of what Obama has been saying in the last few days.

If Lie-bor was telling the truth Volcker would not have made certain statements. Think about it. Last April people were jumping up and down because of the lies of Lie-bor. Now when it suits them there is total silence.

I present you with this article where an Obama plan for an economy in OTC derivative convulsions is discussed. The problem is until you address the problem you treat symptoms. The problem continues to grow and you fail.

Volcker issues dire warning on slump

Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has warned that the economic slump has begun to metastasise after a shocking collapse in output over the past two months, threatening to overwhelm the incoming Obama administration as it struggles to restore confidence.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 10:39PM GMT 17 Nov 2008

"What this crisis reveals is a broken financial system like no other in my lifetime," he told a conference at Lombard Street Research in London.

"Normal monetary policy is not able to get money flowing. The trouble is that, even with all this [government] protection, the market is not moving again. The only other time we have seen the US economy drop as suddenly as this was when the Carter administration imposed credit controls, which was artificial."

His comments come as the blizzard of dire data in the US continues to crush spirits. The Empire State index of manufacturing dropped to minus 24.6 in October, the lowest ever recorded. Paul Ashworth, US economist at Capital Economics, said business spending was now going into "meltdown", compounding the collapse in consumer spending that is already under way.

Mr Volcker, an adviser to President-Elect Barack Obama and a short-list candidate for Treasury Secretary, warned that it is already too late to avoid a severe downturn even if the credit markets stabilise over coming months. "I don’t think anybody thinks we’re going to get through this recession in a hurry," he said.

He advised Mr Obama to tread a fine line, embarking on bold action with a "compelling economic logic" rather than scattering fiscal stimulus or resorting to a wholesale bail-out of Detroit. "He can’t just throw money at the auto industry."

Mr Volcker is a towering figure in the US, praised for taming the great inflation of the late 1970s with unpopular monetary rigour. He is no friend of Alan Greenspan, who replaced him at the Fed and presided over credit excess that pushed private debt to 300pc of GDP.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following are the key points of the article:

1. "Then there is the need for increased public spending on infrastructure and federal grants to state and local governments to offset the collapse of private spending."
2. "Candidate Obama spoke of $150 billion of fiscal stimulus. But if this recession turns out to be the deepest since World War II, as now seems certain, the appropriate figure will be at least four times that large. Anything less would fail to cushion the downturn."
3. "Then there is the problem of the auto industry. The best course normally would be Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This would allow the Big Three to shed bad management and contracts, both of which would be thrown out in the bankruptcy process."
4. "A further complication arises from the fact that cars last for years and when they break down are expensive to repair. Warranties matter, in other words. If a producer was undergoing bankruptcy reorganization, from which it might or might not emerge, consumers would question whether its warranties were worth the paper they were written on."
"But if this is the problem, then the government can guarantee the warranties."
6. He can ramp up spending on education and training.

Commentary: How Obama can fix the economy
By Barry Eichengreen
Special to CNN

BERKELEY, California (CNN) — President-elect Barack Obama has been holding his economic cards close to his vest. He did not participate in person at last weekend’s meeting of G20 leaders.

He has been reluctant to encourage the lame-duck Congress to adopt a major fiscal stimulus package.

He may be right in saying that the U.S. has only one president at a time. But this makes it all the more important that he hit the ground running on January 20.

This will mean, first of all, addressing the credit crisis. Despite all the actions of the Fed and the Treasury, the banks are still not lending. In some cases this is because their own finances are weak. But in others it is because they have other more convenient uses for their funds, ranging from acquisitions to dividend payments.

This reflects a flawed bank recapitalization scheme that gives the government no voting shares in the banks into which it is injecting public funds and hence no say in their decisions. Fortunately (as it were) there will be an opportunity to correct this, since as the recession deepens there will be more loan losses and the need for more capital injections. The next round of public money should come with voting rights so that taxpayers’ interests are protected.

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Jim Sinclair’s Conclusion

The solution remains to throw money at it via quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus. The consequences without any doubt will be hyperinflation in a depression like all other examples of hyperinflation in history. Also keep in mind that the re-emergence of gold in the monetary system will not be as a convertibility item but as a control item in the FRGCR.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

If you read yesterday’s notes on hyperinflation you now know the common belief that an economy must be in a recovery phase to motivate the velocity of money, which in turn converts expansion of money supply into significant inflation, is a BUSTED ECONOMIC MYTH. History speaks loud and clear to that.

Hyperinflation comes about via a loss of confidence in money. This can be political as well as economic. It can happen to any major currency that weakens. It simply has never occurred by an upturn in business.

The mistaken belief that an up-turn in business activity as an absolutely necessary criterion for the enormous funds now injected and to be injected into the economic system to transmute in an out of control inflation is convenient spin.

Hyperinflation in every case, even those considered political, has been a product of variations of quantitative easing, the process we are now entering.

The key reason why quantitative easing has been so successful at causing hyperinflation is because this method of direct injection is made of liquidity and therefore effectively eliminates and sterilizes the funds so injected.

The reason all historical hyperinflationary events have occurred is due to the failure of attempts to unlock credit lock ups.

The Federal Reserve has no other option than moving to quantitative easing because the Federal Reserve Begging Bowl and the TARP have only served the Good Ole Boy’s Club of Banking.

GE is simply too big to fail. GM is simply too big to fail. Quantitative easing can prevent this but as always, with CONSEQUENCES.

Currency relationships are the final determinant of hyperinflation in every case in history going back to Rome.

The technical dollar rally had to be engineered otherwise TARP or the Begging Bowl could not have been applied.

The credit of unlimited dollars via quantitative easing carries defined dollar consequences that no carry trade nor repatriation can nullify.

So let’s summate what we have discovered by a review of all significant hyperinflationary events in history:

1. The velocity of money increase that transmutes money supply into runaway inflation is currency related in every instance, not business recovering activity related.

2. The tip off to impending hyperinflation is always a currency event. This is without exception and never fails to occur.

3. More than 95% of all hyperinflation events, if not all, started in a business recession or depression, not in a recovery phase of that country’s business activity.

I invite you to try to prove me wrong, knowing you cannot.

The instant the technical dollar rally based on repatriations and carries end, and it will, the process leading to hyperinflation will have begun.

Until then big money will be the buyers of any gold weakness as were certain Middle Eastern entities a week ago.

Those who take delivery of their COMEX contract out of COMEX storage are doing themselves and all of us a favour.

Madness or Reality

Those who are frustrated by gold need to understand that the masses are driven via spin to illusions and madness.

When reality dawns via a break in markets that via spin they have gone mad over, it is too late to do anything but go belly up.

There is a great story that proves this.

Back in 1824 there was a blue-collar worker who had the ability to be a great public speaker.

His topic was his relationship to the then mayor of New York and his observation that the lower end of Manhattan Island was in the process of sinking. He claimed to have been retained by the Mayor of New York to promptly and permanently fix this problem.

The process was simple. He would saw off the lower end of Manhattan then tow it out to sea, turn it around and bring it back properly connecting it with Manhattan, therein resolving the dire problem.

Although that sounded ludicrous and was derided in publications, Lozier persisted. Lozier, purporting his authority, began to order all kinds of supplies, hire workers, and order huge amounts of livestock as food. All of this was in the thousands.

Then came the day for work to start. All items were delivered that day and a huge number of staff as well as lines of workers appeared ready for the task.

The only person missing was Lozier. He was never prosecuted, as everyone fooled by him were too embarrassed to admit they had been had.

This is those in the market who buy the spin that hyperinflation can only be the product of an improving business climate.

You can read about this in the “Grand Deception” by Alexander Klein.

What is occurring now is a “Grand Deception” which due to the unlimited amounts of funds being and to be created gives today’s Lozier an extremely short lifetime.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

First it was a currency in Crisis, then the “Mother of All Crises.”

The following is the ratio of marks to the dollar through the Weimar experience:

July 1914 – 4.2 marks to the dollar
January 1919 – 8.9
July 1919 – 14.0
January 1920 – 64.8
July 1920 – 39.5
January 1921 – 64.9
July 1921 – 76.7
January 1922 – 1919.8
July 1922 – 493.2
January 1923 – 17,972
July 1923 – 353,412
August 1923 – 4,620,455
September 1923 – 98,860,000
October 1923 – 25,260,208,000
November 15, 1923 – 4,200,000,000,000 (Yes, trillion)
(Source: Gordon Craig, "Germany 1866-1945")

As you can see from the chart below the velocity of money began an upward trip towards hyperinflation as the currency was trading at 76.7 in June/July of 1921. That indicates a significant decline in confidence but not a wholesale rollover of confidence.

November1708-001

The chart below is a good indicator of business activity as it represents unemployment. It must be noted this record comes from Trade Union so it would be somewhat prejudice to the low side as these workers are the most skilled at that time.

November1708-002

The conclusion I come to is the argument that business must be flat to improving in order for the process of hyperinflation to start is not an axiom. It was not true in the Weimar experience as well as most of the modern experiences generally limited to a country or closely allied trade area.

Excerpts From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

1. Since hyperinflation is visible as a monetary effect, models of hyperinflation center on the demand for money. Economists see both a rapid increase in the money supply and an increase in the velocity of money. Either one or both of these encourage inflation and hyperinflation. A dramatic increase in the velocity of money as the cause of hyperinflation is central to the "crisis of confidence" model of hyperinflation, where the risk premium that sellers demand for the paper currency over the nominal value grows rapidly. The second theory is that there is first a radical increase in the amount of circulating medium, which can be called the "monetary model" of hyperinflation. In either model, the second effect then follows from the first — either too little confidence forcing an increase in the money supply, or too much money destroying confidence.

2 “Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following:

  • – Outright lying in official statistics such as money supply, inflation or reserves.
  • – Suppression of publication of money supply statistics, or inflation indices.
  • – Price and wage controls.
  • – Forced savings schemes, designed to suck up excess liquidity. These savings schemes may be described as pensions schemes, emergency funds, war funds, or something similar.
    – Adjusting the components of the Consumer price index, to remove those items whose prices are rising the fastest.

None of these actions address the root causes of inflation, and in fact, if discovered, tend to further undermine trust in the currency”

3. In the confidence model, some event, or series of events, such as defeats in battle, or a run on stocks of the specie which back a currency, removes the belief that the authority issuing the money will remain solvent — whether a bank or a government. Because people do not want to hold notes which may become valueless, they want to spend them in preference to holding notes which will lose value. Sellers, realizing that there is a higher risk for the currency, demand a greater and greater premium over the original value. Under this model, the method of ending hyperinflation is to change the backing of the currency — often by issuing a completely new one. War is one commonly cited cause of crisis of confidence, particularly losing in a war, as occurred during Napoleonic Vienna, and capital flight, sometimes because of "contagion" is another. In this view, the increase in the circulating medium is the result of the government attempting to buy time without coming to terms with the root cause of the lack of confidence itself.

4. Since hyperinflation is visible as a monetary effect, models of hyperinflation center on the demand for money. Economists see both a rapid increase in the money supply and an increase in the velocity of money. Either one or both of these encourage inflation and hyperinflation. A dramatic increase in the velocity of money as the cause of hyperinflation is central to the "crisis of confidence" model of hyperinflation, where the risk premium that sellers demand for the paper currency over the nominal value grows rapidly. The second theory is that there is first a radical increase in the amount of circulating medium, which can be called the "monetary model" of hyperinflation. In either model, the second effect then follows from the first — either too little confidence forcing an increase in the money supply, or too much money destroying confidence.

In the confidence model, some event, or series of events, such as defeats in battle, or a run on stocks of the specie which back a currency, removes the belief that the authority issuing the money will remain solvent — whether a bank or a government. Because people do not want to hold notes which may become valueless, they want to spend them in preference to holding notes which will lose value. Sellers, realizing that there is a higher risk for the currency, demand a greater and greater premium over the original value. Under this model, the method of ending hyperinflation is to change the backing of the currency — often by issuing a completely new one. War is one commonly cited cause of crisis of confidence, particularly losing in a war, as occurred during Napoleonic Vienna, and capital flight, sometimes because of "contagion" is another. In this view, the increase in the circulating medium is the result of the government attempting to buy time without coming to terms with the root cause of the lack of confidence itself.

In the monetary model, hyperinflation is a positive feedback cycle of rapid monetary expansion. It has the same cause as all other inflation: money-issuing bodies, central or otherwise, produce currency to pay spiralling costs, often from lax fiscal policy, or the mounting costs of warfare. When businesspeople perceive that the issuer is committed to a policy of rapid currency expansion, they mark up prices to cover the expected decay in the currency’s value. The issuer must then accelerate its expansion to cover these prices, which pushes the currency value down even faster than before. According to this model the issuer cannot "win" and the only solution is to abruptly stop expanding the currency. Unfortunately, the end of expansion can cause a severe financial shock to those using the currency as expectations are suddenly adjusted. This policy, combined with reductions of pensions, wages, and government outlays, formed part of the Washington consensus of the 1990s.

Whatever the cause, hyperinflation involves both the supply and velocity of money. Which comes first is a matter of debate, and there may be no universal story that applies to all cases. But once the hyperinflation is established, the pattern of increasing the money stock, by whichever agencies are allowed to do so, is universal. Because this practice increases the supply of currency without any matching increase in demand for it, the price of the currency, that is the exchange rate, naturally falls relative to other currencies. Inflation becomes hyperinflation when the increase in money supply turns specific areas of pricing power into a general frenzy of spending quickly before money becomes worthless. The purchasing power of the currency drops so rapidly that holding cash for even a day is an unacceptable loss of purchasing power. As a result, no one holds currency, which increases the velocity of money, and worsens the crisis.

That is, rapidly rising prices undermine money’s role as a store of value, so that people try to spend it on real goods or services as quickly as possible. Thus, the monetary model predicts that the velocity of money will rise endogenously as a result of the excessive increase in the money supply. At the point when ordinary purchases are affected by inflation pressures, hyperinflation is out of control, in the sense that ordinary policy mechanisms, such as increasing reserve requirements, raising interest rates or cutting government spending will all be responded to by shifting away from the rapidly dwindling currency and towards other means of exchange.

During a period of hyperinflation, bank runs, loans for 24 hour periods, switching to alternate currencies, the return to use of gold or silver or even barter become common. Many of the people who hoard gold today expect hyperinflation, and are hedging against it by holding specie. There may also be extensive capital flight or flight to a "hard" currency such as the U.S. dollar. This is sometimes met with capital controls, an idea which has swung from standard, to anathema, and back into semi-respectability. All of this constitutes an economy which is operating in an "abnormal" way, which may lead to decreases in real production. If so, that intensifies the hyperinflation, since it means that the amount of goods in "too much money chasing too few goods" formulation is also reduced. This is also part of the vicious circle of hyperinflation.

Once the vicious circle of hyperinflation has been ignited, dramatic policy means are almost always required, simply raising interest rates is insufficient. Bolivia, for example, underwent a period of hyperinflation in 1985, where prices increased 12,000% in the space of less than a year. The government raised the price of gasoline, which it had been selling at a huge loss to quiet popular discontent, and the hyperinflation came to a halt almost immediately, since it was able to bring in hard currency by selling its oil abroad. The crisis of confidence ended, and people returned deposits to banks. The German hyperinflation of the 1920s was ended by producing a currency based on assets loaned against by banks, called the Rentenmark. Hyperinflation often ends when a civil conflict ends with one side winning. Although wage and price controls are sometimes used to control or prevent inflation, no episode of hyperinflation has been ended by the use of price controls alone. However, wage and price controls have sometimes been part of the mix of policies used to halt hyperinflation.

As noted, in countries experiencing hyperinflation, the central bank often prints money in larger and larger denominations as the smaller denomination notes become worthless. This can result in the production of some interesting banknotes, including those denominated in amounts of 1,000,000,000 or more.

* By late 1923, the Weimar Republic of Germany was issuing fifty-million Mark banknotes and postage stamps with a face value of fifty billion Mark. The highest value banknote issued by the Weimar government’s Reichsbank had a face value of 100 trillion Mark (100,000,000,000,000; 100 billion on the long scale).[6] [7]. One of the firms printing these notes submitted an invoice for the work to the Reichsbank for 32,776,899,763,734,490,417.05 (3.28×1019, or 33 quintillion) Marks.[8]

* The largest denomination banknote ever officially issued for circulation was in 1946 by the Hungarian National Bank for the amount of 100 quintillion pengő (100,000,000,000,000,000,000, or 1020; 100 trillion on the long scale). image (There was even a banknote worth 10 times more, i.e. 1021 pengő, printed, but not issued image.) The banknotes however didn’t depict the number, making the 500,000,000,000 Yugoslav dinar banknote the world’s leader when it comes to depicted zeros on banknotes.

* The Z$100 billion agro cheque, issued in Zimbabwe on July 21, 2008, shares the record for depicted zeroes (11) with the 500 billion Yugoslav dinar banknote.

* The Post-WWII hyperinflation of Hungary holds the record for the most extreme monthly inflation rate ever — 41,900,000,000,000,000% (4.19 × 1016%) for July, 1946, amounting to prices doubling every thirteen and one half hours.

One way to avoid the use of large numbers is by declaring a new unit of currency (an example being, instead of 10,000,000,000 Dollars, a bank might set 1 new dollar = 1,000,000,000 old dollars, so the new note would read "10 new dollars".) An example of this would be Turkey’s revaluation of the Lira on January 1, 2005, when the old Turkish lira (TRL) was converted to the New Turkish lira (YTL) at a rate of 1,000,000 old to 1 new Turkish Lira. While this does not lessen the actual value of a currency, it is called redenomination or revaluation and also happens over time in countries with standard inflation levels. During hyperinflation, currency inflation happens so quickly that bills reach large numbers before revaluation.

Some banknotes were stamped to indicate changes of denomination. This is because it would take too long to print new notes. By time the new notes would be printed, they would be obsolete (that is, they would be of too low a denomination to be useful).

Metallic coins were rapid casualties of hyperinflation, as the scrap value of metal enormously exceeded the face value. Massive amounts of coinage were melted down, usually illicitly, and exported for hard currency.

Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following:

* Outright lying in official statistics such as money supply, inflation or reserves.
* Suppression of publication of money supply statistics, or inflation indices.
* Price and wage controls.
* Forced savings schemes, designed to suck up excess liquidity. These savings schemes may be described as pensions schemes, emergency funds, war funds, or something similar.
* Adjusting the components of the Consumer price index, to remove those items whose prices are rising the fastest.

None of these actions address the root causes of inflation, and in fact, if discovered, tend to further undermine trust in the currency, causing further increases in inflation. Price controls will generally result in hoarding and extremely high demand for the controlled goods, resulting in shortages and disruptions of the supply chain. Products available to consumers may diminish or disappear as businesses no longer find it sufficiently profitable (or may be operating at a loss) to continue producing and/or distributing such goods, further exacerbating the problem.

To read more on Hyperinflation on Wikipedia click here

To read more on the Weimar Republic on Wikipedia click here

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Gold is on its way back into the monetary system. That is certain.

It is also certain that one method being examined at the highest level is the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, Modernized and Revitalized and no longer directly connected to interest rates.

If you are one of the gold gang that fears Volcker as an advisor to Obama, then you are ignorant of Volcker’s previous position on gold early in his career. I believe he is this time pro-gold because of the Mother of All Crises – his description of the conditions now.

Volcker does not waste words, nor is he glitzy. This is the Mother of All Crises, settlement of which demands a gold criterion which is the FRGCR.

The price will float but around a pivot point of $1650 (or higher). It will more than likely be within $200 based on expansion or contraction of a measure of US international debt.

Stable Money Is the Key to Recovery
How the G-20 can rebuild the ‘capitalism of the future.’
By JUDY SHELTON
NOVEMBER 14, 2008

Tomorrow’s "Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy" in Washington will have a stellar cast. Leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations will be there, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who initiated the whole affair, in order, as he put it, "to build together the capitalism of the future," will be in attendance, along with the host, our own President George W. Bush, and the chiefs of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations.

When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window some 37 years ago, it marked the end of a golden age of robust trade and unprecedented global economic growth. The Bretton Woods system derived its strength from a commitment by the U.S. to redeem dollars for gold on demand.

True, the right of convertibility at a pre-established rate was granted only to foreign central banks, not to individual dollar holders; therein lies the distinction between the Bretton Woods gold exchange system and a classical gold standard. Under Bretton Woods, participating nations agreed to maintain their own currencies at a fixed exchange rate relative to the dollar.

Since the value of the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 per ounce of gold — guaranteed by the redemption privilege — it was as if all currencies were anchored to gold. It also meant all currencies were convertible into each other at fixed rates.

Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman, was at Camp David with Nixon on that fateful day, Aug. 15, when the system was ended. Mr. Volcker, serving as Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs at the time, had misgivings; and he has since noted that the inflationary pressures which caused us to go off the gold standard in the first place have only worsened. Moreover, he suggests, floating rates undermine the fundamental tenets of comparative advantage.

"What can an exchange rate really mean," he wrote in "Changing Fortunes" (1992), "in terms of everything a textbook teaches about rational economic decision making, when it changes by 30% or more in the space of 12 months only to reverse itself? What kind of signals does that send about where a businessman should intelligently invest his capital for long-term profitability? In the grand scheme of economic life first described by Adam Smith, in which nations like individuals should concentrate on the things they do best, how can anyone decide which country produces what most efficiently when the prices change so fast? The answer, to me, must be that such large swings are a symptom of a system in disarray."

More…

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Let today be your answer to the many question concerning whether gold will ever rise again. The answer is it will to $1200 and then onward to $1650.

I suspect that we could soon have a financial/felony experience that could land on the dollar like a piece of lead.

I suspect that the instant the USDX breaks its present up-trend line from .72 to about .89, it will look like the dollar stepped into an elevator door and found no elevator there.

I suspect that the next move in gold will witness the massive short covering in all variety of shares, both majors and juniors.

Under no circumstances give away your insurance (gold and all things gold) and if you have then for your sake buy your insurance policy back ASAP (gold and all that is gold).

Gold is a currency that you will see perform as the currency of choice. There is no doubt we are headed into a planetary Weimar experience to some degree.

Dollars are being created faster now than in any other period in history. The Fed and treasury are guaranteeing everything from money market funds to large corporate entities in one way or another.

The first valuation of worthless OTC derivatives via a public sale of these at .0875 to .02 cents shocked anyone with a brain. Now the downturn in business is hitting financial entities and shortly litigation will smoke whatever is left.

The FDIC is already yelling for additional and significant funding from congress as their capital contracts on every Friday’s bailout and their responsibility to cover now goes to GE, a non-bank with no depositors.

People expect things to return to normal in 2010. That is a fairy tale.

All these bailouts and Federal guarantees on credit items constitute a white wash on a falling economic structure going out of control and soon.

The out of control point of major planetary dislocation is between today and 66 days from now.

INSURANCE ON SALE

Gold is the only viable insurance. The US dollar is not viable insurance because there is simply too much of it and that amount is growing every day. That makes the US dollar untrustworthy.

Gold is the only viable insurance. Clearly equities (with the exception of precious metals shares) are not.

Gold is the only viable insurance. US Treasury bills are not because the yelling at all the rating agencies in Washington today just might get US credit downgraded.

General commodities have been viable, but by nature they are too wild and from now on will be selective until Pakistan implodes and Weimar appears

Banks cannot offer insurance as they are in the main bankrupt.

Insurance companies cannot offer you sound insurance as they are now broke by OTC derivatives.

Money market funds are not insurance, making gold the only viable insurance.

Retirement programs are no longer insurance and with Motor’s bankruptcy pending they can simply disappear into Chapter 11.

Pensions are simply too large for the government agency to insure.

Jobs are no longer insurance as companies are run by lawyers and accountants.

Equity in your home is not insurance because it simply does not exist.

Your family is no longer insurance because they have the same problems you do.

The assumption your kids will take care of you in your old age is not viable insurance no matter what you think.

Gold has no liability attached to it and is therefore the only viable insurance as honest money.

Gold is universally exchangeable, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold has historically performed perfectly in maintaining buying power, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold is the only viable insurance because it is Honest Money without liability or agenda.

Since gold is the only viable insurance and because everyone needs it, gold will trade at levels of at least $1200 and $1650.

I could go on but gold is all there is that will protect you from the White Wash being applied to the Walking Dead entities by the Fed and Treasury on a structure that is in fact in a free fall.

I am not the least concerned about gold and believe you should not be either as long as you have no margin and understand what gold really is: the only honest currency and only historically functioning insurance policy. There is no other viable insurance in this most unusual situation.

Please review the Formula as the US Federal Budget is going ballistic as the TIC report contracts like a turtle into its shell.

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

  1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
  2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
  3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
  4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
  5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
  6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
  7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
  8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit)
  9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
  10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
  11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
  12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

Respectfully yours,
Jim