Posts Categorized: General Editorial

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

If you read yesterday’s notes on hyperinflation you now know the common belief that an economy must be in a recovery phase to motivate the velocity of money, which in turn converts expansion of money supply into significant inflation, is a BUSTED ECONOMIC MYTH. History speaks loud and clear to that.

Hyperinflation comes about via a loss of confidence in money. This can be political as well as economic. It can happen to any major currency that weakens. It simply has never occurred by an upturn in business.

The mistaken belief that an up-turn in business activity as an absolutely necessary criterion for the enormous funds now injected and to be injected into the economic system to transmute in an out of control inflation is convenient spin.

Hyperinflation in every case, even those considered political, has been a product of variations of quantitative easing, the process we are now entering.

The key reason why quantitative easing has been so successful at causing hyperinflation is because this method of direct injection is made of liquidity and therefore effectively eliminates and sterilizes the funds so injected.

The reason all historical hyperinflationary events have occurred is due to the failure of attempts to unlock credit lock ups.

The Federal Reserve has no other option than moving to quantitative easing because the Federal Reserve Begging Bowl and the TARP have only served the Good Ole Boy’s Club of Banking.

GE is simply too big to fail. GM is simply too big to fail. Quantitative easing can prevent this but as always, with CONSEQUENCES.

Currency relationships are the final determinant of hyperinflation in every case in history going back to Rome.

The technical dollar rally had to be engineered otherwise TARP or the Begging Bowl could not have been applied.

The credit of unlimited dollars via quantitative easing carries defined dollar consequences that no carry trade nor repatriation can nullify.

So let’s summate what we have discovered by a review of all significant hyperinflationary events in history:

1. The velocity of money increase that transmutes money supply into runaway inflation is currency related in every instance, not business recovering activity related.

2. The tip off to impending hyperinflation is always a currency event. This is without exception and never fails to occur.

3. More than 95% of all hyperinflation events, if not all, started in a business recession or depression, not in a recovery phase of that country’s business activity.

I invite you to try to prove me wrong, knowing you cannot.

The instant the technical dollar rally based on repatriations and carries end, and it will, the process leading to hyperinflation will have begun.

Until then big money will be the buyers of any gold weakness as were certain Middle Eastern entities a week ago.

Those who take delivery of their COMEX contract out of COMEX storage are doing themselves and all of us a favour.

Madness or Reality

Those who are frustrated by gold need to understand that the masses are driven via spin to illusions and madness.

When reality dawns via a break in markets that via spin they have gone mad over, it is too late to do anything but go belly up.

There is a great story that proves this.

Back in 1824 there was a blue-collar worker who had the ability to be a great public speaker.

His topic was his relationship to the then mayor of New York and his observation that the lower end of Manhattan Island was in the process of sinking. He claimed to have been retained by the Mayor of New York to promptly and permanently fix this problem.

The process was simple. He would saw off the lower end of Manhattan then tow it out to sea, turn it around and bring it back properly connecting it with Manhattan, therein resolving the dire problem.

Although that sounded ludicrous and was derided in publications, Lozier persisted. Lozier, purporting his authority, began to order all kinds of supplies, hire workers, and order huge amounts of livestock as food. All of this was in the thousands.

Then came the day for work to start. All items were delivered that day and a huge number of staff as well as lines of workers appeared ready for the task.

The only person missing was Lozier. He was never prosecuted, as everyone fooled by him were too embarrassed to admit they had been had.

This is those in the market who buy the spin that hyperinflation can only be the product of an improving business climate.

You can read about this in the “Grand Deception” by Alexander Klein.

What is occurring now is a “Grand Deception” which due to the unlimited amounts of funds being and to be created gives today’s Lozier an extremely short lifetime.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

First it was a currency in Crisis, then the “Mother of All Crises.”

The following is the ratio of marks to the dollar through the Weimar experience:

July 1914 – 4.2 marks to the dollar
January 1919 – 8.9
July 1919 – 14.0
January 1920 – 64.8
July 1920 – 39.5
January 1921 – 64.9
July 1921 – 76.7
January 1922 – 1919.8
July 1922 – 493.2
January 1923 – 17,972
July 1923 – 353,412
August 1923 – 4,620,455
September 1923 – 98,860,000
October 1923 – 25,260,208,000
November 15, 1923 – 4,200,000,000,000 (Yes, trillion)
(Source: Gordon Craig, "Germany 1866-1945")

As you can see from the chart below the velocity of money began an upward trip towards hyperinflation as the currency was trading at 76.7 in June/July of 1921. That indicates a significant decline in confidence but not a wholesale rollover of confidence.

November1708-001

The chart below is a good indicator of business activity as it represents unemployment. It must be noted this record comes from Trade Union so it would be somewhat prejudice to the low side as these workers are the most skilled at that time.

November1708-002

The conclusion I come to is the argument that business must be flat to improving in order for the process of hyperinflation to start is not an axiom. It was not true in the Weimar experience as well as most of the modern experiences generally limited to a country or closely allied trade area.

Excerpts From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

1. Since hyperinflation is visible as a monetary effect, models of hyperinflation center on the demand for money. Economists see both a rapid increase in the money supply and an increase in the velocity of money. Either one or both of these encourage inflation and hyperinflation. A dramatic increase in the velocity of money as the cause of hyperinflation is central to the "crisis of confidence" model of hyperinflation, where the risk premium that sellers demand for the paper currency over the nominal value grows rapidly. The second theory is that there is first a radical increase in the amount of circulating medium, which can be called the "monetary model" of hyperinflation. In either model, the second effect then follows from the first — either too little confidence forcing an increase in the money supply, or too much money destroying confidence.

2 “Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following:

  • – Outright lying in official statistics such as money supply, inflation or reserves.
  • – Suppression of publication of money supply statistics, or inflation indices.
  • – Price and wage controls.
  • – Forced savings schemes, designed to suck up excess liquidity. These savings schemes may be described as pensions schemes, emergency funds, war funds, or something similar.
    – Adjusting the components of the Consumer price index, to remove those items whose prices are rising the fastest.

None of these actions address the root causes of inflation, and in fact, if discovered, tend to further undermine trust in the currency”

3. In the confidence model, some event, or series of events, such as defeats in battle, or a run on stocks of the specie which back a currency, removes the belief that the authority issuing the money will remain solvent — whether a bank or a government. Because people do not want to hold notes which may become valueless, they want to spend them in preference to holding notes which will lose value. Sellers, realizing that there is a higher risk for the currency, demand a greater and greater premium over the original value. Under this model, the method of ending hyperinflation is to change the backing of the currency — often by issuing a completely new one. War is one commonly cited cause of crisis of confidence, particularly losing in a war, as occurred during Napoleonic Vienna, and capital flight, sometimes because of "contagion" is another. In this view, the increase in the circulating medium is the result of the government attempting to buy time without coming to terms with the root cause of the lack of confidence itself.

4. Since hyperinflation is visible as a monetary effect, models of hyperinflation center on the demand for money. Economists see both a rapid increase in the money supply and an increase in the velocity of money. Either one or both of these encourage inflation and hyperinflation. A dramatic increase in the velocity of money as the cause of hyperinflation is central to the "crisis of confidence" model of hyperinflation, where the risk premium that sellers demand for the paper currency over the nominal value grows rapidly. The second theory is that there is first a radical increase in the amount of circulating medium, which can be called the "monetary model" of hyperinflation. In either model, the second effect then follows from the first — either too little confidence forcing an increase in the money supply, or too much money destroying confidence.

In the confidence model, some event, or series of events, such as defeats in battle, or a run on stocks of the specie which back a currency, removes the belief that the authority issuing the money will remain solvent — whether a bank or a government. Because people do not want to hold notes which may become valueless, they want to spend them in preference to holding notes which will lose value. Sellers, realizing that there is a higher risk for the currency, demand a greater and greater premium over the original value. Under this model, the method of ending hyperinflation is to change the backing of the currency — often by issuing a completely new one. War is one commonly cited cause of crisis of confidence, particularly losing in a war, as occurred during Napoleonic Vienna, and capital flight, sometimes because of "contagion" is another. In this view, the increase in the circulating medium is the result of the government attempting to buy time without coming to terms with the root cause of the lack of confidence itself.

In the monetary model, hyperinflation is a positive feedback cycle of rapid monetary expansion. It has the same cause as all other inflation: money-issuing bodies, central or otherwise, produce currency to pay spiralling costs, often from lax fiscal policy, or the mounting costs of warfare. When businesspeople perceive that the issuer is committed to a policy of rapid currency expansion, they mark up prices to cover the expected decay in the currency’s value. The issuer must then accelerate its expansion to cover these prices, which pushes the currency value down even faster than before. According to this model the issuer cannot "win" and the only solution is to abruptly stop expanding the currency. Unfortunately, the end of expansion can cause a severe financial shock to those using the currency as expectations are suddenly adjusted. This policy, combined with reductions of pensions, wages, and government outlays, formed part of the Washington consensus of the 1990s.

Whatever the cause, hyperinflation involves both the supply and velocity of money. Which comes first is a matter of debate, and there may be no universal story that applies to all cases. But once the hyperinflation is established, the pattern of increasing the money stock, by whichever agencies are allowed to do so, is universal. Because this practice increases the supply of currency without any matching increase in demand for it, the price of the currency, that is the exchange rate, naturally falls relative to other currencies. Inflation becomes hyperinflation when the increase in money supply turns specific areas of pricing power into a general frenzy of spending quickly before money becomes worthless. The purchasing power of the currency drops so rapidly that holding cash for even a day is an unacceptable loss of purchasing power. As a result, no one holds currency, which increases the velocity of money, and worsens the crisis.

That is, rapidly rising prices undermine money’s role as a store of value, so that people try to spend it on real goods or services as quickly as possible. Thus, the monetary model predicts that the velocity of money will rise endogenously as a result of the excessive increase in the money supply. At the point when ordinary purchases are affected by inflation pressures, hyperinflation is out of control, in the sense that ordinary policy mechanisms, such as increasing reserve requirements, raising interest rates or cutting government spending will all be responded to by shifting away from the rapidly dwindling currency and towards other means of exchange.

During a period of hyperinflation, bank runs, loans for 24 hour periods, switching to alternate currencies, the return to use of gold or silver or even barter become common. Many of the people who hoard gold today expect hyperinflation, and are hedging against it by holding specie. There may also be extensive capital flight or flight to a "hard" currency such as the U.S. dollar. This is sometimes met with capital controls, an idea which has swung from standard, to anathema, and back into semi-respectability. All of this constitutes an economy which is operating in an "abnormal" way, which may lead to decreases in real production. If so, that intensifies the hyperinflation, since it means that the amount of goods in "too much money chasing too few goods" formulation is also reduced. This is also part of the vicious circle of hyperinflation.

Once the vicious circle of hyperinflation has been ignited, dramatic policy means are almost always required, simply raising interest rates is insufficient. Bolivia, for example, underwent a period of hyperinflation in 1985, where prices increased 12,000% in the space of less than a year. The government raised the price of gasoline, which it had been selling at a huge loss to quiet popular discontent, and the hyperinflation came to a halt almost immediately, since it was able to bring in hard currency by selling its oil abroad. The crisis of confidence ended, and people returned deposits to banks. The German hyperinflation of the 1920s was ended by producing a currency based on assets loaned against by banks, called the Rentenmark. Hyperinflation often ends when a civil conflict ends with one side winning. Although wage and price controls are sometimes used to control or prevent inflation, no episode of hyperinflation has been ended by the use of price controls alone. However, wage and price controls have sometimes been part of the mix of policies used to halt hyperinflation.

As noted, in countries experiencing hyperinflation, the central bank often prints money in larger and larger denominations as the smaller denomination notes become worthless. This can result in the production of some interesting banknotes, including those denominated in amounts of 1,000,000,000 or more.

* By late 1923, the Weimar Republic of Germany was issuing fifty-million Mark banknotes and postage stamps with a face value of fifty billion Mark. The highest value banknote issued by the Weimar government’s Reichsbank had a face value of 100 trillion Mark (100,000,000,000,000; 100 billion on the long scale).[6] [7]. One of the firms printing these notes submitted an invoice for the work to the Reichsbank for 32,776,899,763,734,490,417.05 (3.28×1019, or 33 quintillion) Marks.[8]

* The largest denomination banknote ever officially issued for circulation was in 1946 by the Hungarian National Bank for the amount of 100 quintillion pengő (100,000,000,000,000,000,000, or 1020; 100 trillion on the long scale). image (There was even a banknote worth 10 times more, i.e. 1021 pengő, printed, but not issued image.) The banknotes however didn’t depict the number, making the 500,000,000,000 Yugoslav dinar banknote the world’s leader when it comes to depicted zeros on banknotes.

* The Z$100 billion agro cheque, issued in Zimbabwe on July 21, 2008, shares the record for depicted zeroes (11) with the 500 billion Yugoslav dinar banknote.

* The Post-WWII hyperinflation of Hungary holds the record for the most extreme monthly inflation rate ever — 41,900,000,000,000,000% (4.19 × 1016%) for July, 1946, amounting to prices doubling every thirteen and one half hours.

One way to avoid the use of large numbers is by declaring a new unit of currency (an example being, instead of 10,000,000,000 Dollars, a bank might set 1 new dollar = 1,000,000,000 old dollars, so the new note would read "10 new dollars".) An example of this would be Turkey’s revaluation of the Lira on January 1, 2005, when the old Turkish lira (TRL) was converted to the New Turkish lira (YTL) at a rate of 1,000,000 old to 1 new Turkish Lira. While this does not lessen the actual value of a currency, it is called redenomination or revaluation and also happens over time in countries with standard inflation levels. During hyperinflation, currency inflation happens so quickly that bills reach large numbers before revaluation.

Some banknotes were stamped to indicate changes of denomination. This is because it would take too long to print new notes. By time the new notes would be printed, they would be obsolete (that is, they would be of too low a denomination to be useful).

Metallic coins were rapid casualties of hyperinflation, as the scrap value of metal enormously exceeded the face value. Massive amounts of coinage were melted down, usually illicitly, and exported for hard currency.

Governments will often try to disguise the true rate of inflation through a variety of techniques. These can include the following:

* Outright lying in official statistics such as money supply, inflation or reserves.
* Suppression of publication of money supply statistics, or inflation indices.
* Price and wage controls.
* Forced savings schemes, designed to suck up excess liquidity. These savings schemes may be described as pensions schemes, emergency funds, war funds, or something similar.
* Adjusting the components of the Consumer price index, to remove those items whose prices are rising the fastest.

None of these actions address the root causes of inflation, and in fact, if discovered, tend to further undermine trust in the currency, causing further increases in inflation. Price controls will generally result in hoarding and extremely high demand for the controlled goods, resulting in shortages and disruptions of the supply chain. Products available to consumers may diminish or disappear as businesses no longer find it sufficiently profitable (or may be operating at a loss) to continue producing and/or distributing such goods, further exacerbating the problem.

To read more on Hyperinflation on Wikipedia click here

To read more on the Weimar Republic on Wikipedia click here

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Gold is on its way back into the monetary system. That is certain.

It is also certain that one method being examined at the highest level is the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, Modernized and Revitalized and no longer directly connected to interest rates.

If you are one of the gold gang that fears Volcker as an advisor to Obama, then you are ignorant of Volcker’s previous position on gold early in his career. I believe he is this time pro-gold because of the Mother of All Crises – his description of the conditions now.

Volcker does not waste words, nor is he glitzy. This is the Mother of All Crises, settlement of which demands a gold criterion which is the FRGCR.

The price will float but around a pivot point of $1650 (or higher). It will more than likely be within $200 based on expansion or contraction of a measure of US international debt.

Stable Money Is the Key to Recovery
How the G-20 can rebuild the ‘capitalism of the future.’
By JUDY SHELTON
NOVEMBER 14, 2008

Tomorrow’s "Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy" in Washington will have a stellar cast. Leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations will be there, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who initiated the whole affair, in order, as he put it, "to build together the capitalism of the future," will be in attendance, along with the host, our own President George W. Bush, and the chiefs of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations.

When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window some 37 years ago, it marked the end of a golden age of robust trade and unprecedented global economic growth. The Bretton Woods system derived its strength from a commitment by the U.S. to redeem dollars for gold on demand.

True, the right of convertibility at a pre-established rate was granted only to foreign central banks, not to individual dollar holders; therein lies the distinction between the Bretton Woods gold exchange system and a classical gold standard. Under Bretton Woods, participating nations agreed to maintain their own currencies at a fixed exchange rate relative to the dollar.

Since the value of the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 per ounce of gold — guaranteed by the redemption privilege — it was as if all currencies were anchored to gold. It also meant all currencies were convertible into each other at fixed rates.

Paul Volcker, former Fed chairman, was at Camp David with Nixon on that fateful day, Aug. 15, when the system was ended. Mr. Volcker, serving as Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs at the time, had misgivings; and he has since noted that the inflationary pressures which caused us to go off the gold standard in the first place have only worsened. Moreover, he suggests, floating rates undermine the fundamental tenets of comparative advantage.

"What can an exchange rate really mean," he wrote in "Changing Fortunes" (1992), "in terms of everything a textbook teaches about rational economic decision making, when it changes by 30% or more in the space of 12 months only to reverse itself? What kind of signals does that send about where a businessman should intelligently invest his capital for long-term profitability? In the grand scheme of economic life first described by Adam Smith, in which nations like individuals should concentrate on the things they do best, how can anyone decide which country produces what most efficiently when the prices change so fast? The answer, to me, must be that such large swings are a symptom of a system in disarray."

More…

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Let today be your answer to the many question concerning whether gold will ever rise again. The answer is it will to $1200 and then onward to $1650.

I suspect that we could soon have a financial/felony experience that could land on the dollar like a piece of lead.

I suspect that the instant the USDX breaks its present up-trend line from .72 to about .89, it will look like the dollar stepped into an elevator door and found no elevator there.

I suspect that the next move in gold will witness the massive short covering in all variety of shares, both majors and juniors.

Under no circumstances give away your insurance (gold and all things gold) and if you have then for your sake buy your insurance policy back ASAP (gold and all that is gold).

Gold is a currency that you will see perform as the currency of choice. There is no doubt we are headed into a planetary Weimar experience to some degree.

Dollars are being created faster now than in any other period in history. The Fed and treasury are guaranteeing everything from money market funds to large corporate entities in one way or another.

The first valuation of worthless OTC derivatives via a public sale of these at .0875 to .02 cents shocked anyone with a brain. Now the downturn in business is hitting financial entities and shortly litigation will smoke whatever is left.

The FDIC is already yelling for additional and significant funding from congress as their capital contracts on every Friday’s bailout and their responsibility to cover now goes to GE, a non-bank with no depositors.

People expect things to return to normal in 2010. That is a fairy tale.

All these bailouts and Federal guarantees on credit items constitute a white wash on a falling economic structure going out of control and soon.

The out of control point of major planetary dislocation is between today and 66 days from now.

INSURANCE ON SALE

Gold is the only viable insurance. The US dollar is not viable insurance because there is simply too much of it and that amount is growing every day. That makes the US dollar untrustworthy.

Gold is the only viable insurance. Clearly equities (with the exception of precious metals shares) are not.

Gold is the only viable insurance. US Treasury bills are not because the yelling at all the rating agencies in Washington today just might get US credit downgraded.

General commodities have been viable, but by nature they are too wild and from now on will be selective until Pakistan implodes and Weimar appears

Banks cannot offer insurance as they are in the main bankrupt.

Insurance companies cannot offer you sound insurance as they are now broke by OTC derivatives.

Money market funds are not insurance, making gold the only viable insurance.

Retirement programs are no longer insurance and with Motor’s bankruptcy pending they can simply disappear into Chapter 11.

Pensions are simply too large for the government agency to insure.

Jobs are no longer insurance as companies are run by lawyers and accountants.

Equity in your home is not insurance because it simply does not exist.

Your family is no longer insurance because they have the same problems you do.

The assumption your kids will take care of you in your old age is not viable insurance no matter what you think.

Gold has no liability attached to it and is therefore the only viable insurance as honest money.

Gold is universally exchangeable, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold has historically performed perfectly in maintaining buying power, making it the only viable insurance.

Gold is the only viable insurance because it is Honest Money without liability or agenda.

Since gold is the only viable insurance and because everyone needs it, gold will trade at levels of at least $1200 and $1650.

I could go on but gold is all there is that will protect you from the White Wash being applied to the Walking Dead entities by the Fed and Treasury on a structure that is in fact in a free fall.

I am not the least concerned about gold and believe you should not be either as long as you have no margin and understand what gold really is: the only honest currency and only historically functioning insurance policy. There is no other viable insurance in this most unusual situation.

Please review the Formula as the US Federal Budget is going ballistic as the TIC report contracts like a turtle into its shell.

Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006

  1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
  2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
  3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
  4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
  5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
  6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
  7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
  8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit)
  9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
  10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
  11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
  12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear International Friends of Gold,

If you are tired of being had by paper gold DOING WHAT IT DID TO YOU THIS US MORNING, the following is the only course of action to end the games being played at your expense. Gold you take delivery of can be insured and shipped anywhere on the globe by Brinks and other recognized express services.

Delivery Process for Gold or Silver:

Delivery – Prudential holds the receipt in PFG’s account for customer
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. Receipt is booked to customers account
5. Monthly storage charge passed on to customer’s account(about $50.00).

Physical Delivery – Customer wants bars in their procession
1. Client buys the futures contract.
2. Client will take delivery between First Notice Day and the Last 
Trading Day.
3. On delivery day account is debited cost plus a $50.00 delivery fee.
4. We will provide the customer with name and phone number of the 
individual at the depository to contact.
5. Customer makes arrangements for the physical delivery

CIGA JB Slear, who is in the commodity business, offers his services to assist anyone seeking physical delivery of metals. He will guide you through the entire process, including arrangements for delivery.

To be totally clear, I expect JB not to discuss any type of speculation with you but ONLY help you acquire 100 ounce gold bars. Once 21,000 bars have been taken the paper gold’s reign over the price of gold is over.

CIGA JB Slear can be reached at the following:

Fort Wealth Trading Co. LLC
www.FortWealth.com
866-443-0868 ext 104

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Quantitive Easing – the direction the Fed is taking, saying they no longer are interested in buying toxic OTC derivatives with little or no value.

This change may well be a result of Bloomberg’s suit to force the Fed to reveal what these assets are on their balance sheet. This forced change to Quantitive Easing is the strongest tool for blasting trillions into economies.

If you know anything about, monetary science, gold is down on one of the greatest positive gold factors.

In the Japanese experience banks and other institutions did not renew lending significant enough for any positive effect. Many simply took the funds to rebuild their shattered balance sheets.

Quantitive Easing does not provide a basis for dollar strength, no matter what the algorithms say.

Not only was it an internal failure but it took the Yen down about 20%.

The talking heads are now saying that the dollar is the measure of how bad the economy will become. That is foolish in today’s situation

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As the balance sheet of the Fed turns toxic on the asset side, the US dollar as the common share of this balance sheet must go down

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet
October 25, 2008

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve issued its weekly H.4.1 report, which provides details of the Fed’s balance sheet. Once upon a time, this was one of the least interesting of the government’s many releases of data. These days, it’s become one of the most exciting.

The essence of the Fed’s balance sheet used to be quite simple. The Fed’s primary operations would consist of either buying outstanding Treasury securities or issuing loans to banks through its discount window. It paid for these transactions by creating credits in accounts that banks hold with the Federal Reserve, known as reserve deposits. Banks can turn those reserves into green cash any time they desire, so the process is sometimes loosely summarized as saying that the Fed pays for the Treasury bills it buys or loans it extends by "printing money". Before the excitement began, the Fed’s assets consisted primarily of the Treasury securities it had acquired over time (about $800 billion as of August 2007) plus its discount loans (an insignificant number at that time). Its liabilities consisted primarily of cash held by the public (about $800 billion a year ago) plus the reserve deposits held by banks (which again used to be a very small number).

More…

The Carry Trade
The Return of the Geeks
Jun 07, 2006

I have been thinking about the nightmare carry trade scenario. In other words, what is the worst possible situation for carry trade players?

For those unfamiliar with the term ‘carry trade,’ I will use the definition found on Freebuck.com.

“Carry trade – The speculation strategy that borrows an asset at one interest rate, sells the asset, then invests those funds into a different asset that generates a higher interest rate yield. Profit is acquired by the difference between the cost of the borrowed asset and the yield on the purchased asset.”

The nightmare carry trade scenario: the six conditions

I view the nightmare scenario something like the following:

1. End of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan
2. End of ZIRP in Japan (Rising interest rates)
3. Rising interest rates in Europe
4. Falling interest rates in the U.S.
5. Tightening credit in the U.S.
6. A rising yen vs. the U.S. dollar

The nightmare carry trade scenario: quantitative easing has ended

Quantitative easing has already ended in Japan. Quantitative easing simply means excessive printing of money by the Bank of Japan in order to defeat the deflation that has been raging for about 18 years.

I believe that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing) prolonged Japan’s deflation, but for now, that is irrelevant. The key point is that both are about to come to an end. Proof of the

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Quantitive Easing at an unprecedented rate (certainly to take place) combined with 1% interest rates in the US is a road to Weimar. The dollar and the Fed are at the helm.

Therefore:
If you know anything about monetary science, gold is down on the greatest positive factor for gold.

Posted by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear Friends,

Gold is a currency. Gold is not a commodity. It has always been so. It will always remain so. That will once again be proven an axiom when you look back at this period in time.

Do not throw away your insurance. Protect yourself by distancing yourself from your financial agents. Take delivery of paper shares or become a direct registration book entry at the transfer agent.

If you can afford to, take delivery of both gold and silver from the COMEX.

Now your insurance companies are major risks as they have been gambling in OTC derivatives.

Respectfully yours,
Jim