Posts Categorized: General Editorial
Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,
Apparently, it’s correction time at the Comex with Gold getting the pressure during London’s watch, but only after Gold reached $1,699.30 before they opened on the island’s trading period with the price right now at $1,627.80, down $33 after being forced down to $1,615.20. We used to have symbols on the monitor, before the algos erased all evidence, that would tell us the markets were in fast trading. This is when the floor’s governing bodies, who used to watch for illegal activity in the pits, would raise both hands up in the air and walk backwards away from the floor, meaning any price is a good price. For brokers outside the pit, the letter “F” next to the price warned everyone about the floor’s activities. Even though those days are gone, today’s movements while writing would have been labeled as FAST. Silver however, is not moving at all with the trade at $14.47, up 21.3 cents after hitting $14.895 with the London low at $14.325. The rallying US Dollar, is having trouble with the value as we see another pullback after our 10% rally with the trade at 101.480, down 76.7 points yet recovering from the low of 101.240 with the high at 102.110. Of course, all this happened before the Comex open and after the White House and Senate have agreed on the “Largest Rescue Package In American History” (to date).
In Venezuela, Gold is now priced at 16,257.65 Bolivar showing a 402.50 pullback with Silver gaining 5.143 Bolivar with the price at 144.519. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 103,670.88 Peso’s showing a reduction of 2,687.17 with Silver at 921.229 showing an addition of 31.325 A-Peso’s. Over in the land of Turkey, Gold’s price is set at 10,485.65 Lira a reduction of 34.96 with Silver at 93.2488 proving an increase of 2.6136 T-Lira.
March Silver Deliveries were very active during yesterday’s Comex trading period as the Volume jumped to 167 inside a trading range between $14.075 and $13.36 with the very last physical trade at $13.97 with the adjusted closing price at $14.229. Today we have a Physical Demand Count of 106 up on the board, proving a reduction in count of 18 after all that activity. So far today, we have a Volume of 103 already posted inside a trading range between $14.715 and $14.455, with the last trade at $14.495. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to collapse as another 5,848 Overnighters jumped ship, but only after their captain steered the ocean liner directly into an iceberg of titanic size, hitting a $1 rise ($5,000 per contract) leaving 151,302 Overnighters still onboard and in the trade. We’re only 13,000 contracts away from the OI that was held back when Silver went to $49.84. From this point forward, the controllers may simply be out of ammo and are now susceptible to the real purchases since there is no coins, rounds, bars, out there at these prices. Thank you Comex, for being the last place to buy $10 to $8 below the real. Let’s see how you can supply the demands or fail. With Trump demanding he will keep the markets open; you may be the ones forced to deliver.
March Gold’s Deliveries were also quite active during yesterday’s activities, especially for a cereal month, with to total Volume at 442 inside a trading range between $1,685.50 and $1,592.70 with the last purchase at $1,648.60 and of course the adjusted close at $1,660.20. Today’s early morning post shows yesterday’s huge gain in demand as the Demand count went to 386 proving 355 more purchases were made for physicals with this morning Volume at 106, with a trading range between $1,676.50 and $1,637.40 with the last purchase so far at $1,638.40. Gold’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 548,504 Overnighters showing that same Algo Captain running into yesterday’s huge $100 high berg.
Spreads for physicals are being blown out as coins, bars, or whatever we can get, is up to $150 over spot for Gold, with Silver’s spreads up to $10, as Comex becomes the cheapest place to buy physicals. Smart buyers are taking advantage of the spreads and jumping into the Comex to make profits in between. All these buyers have to do is take delivery of the Comex bars and send them to a dealer with access to a smelter that will melt that bar down and make it into the sizes and shapes people want in real life. That is “if” they can get the bars. What I mean here is all the Comex warehouses are now in a city under locked down, with London being shut down too and with the help of Boris, who seems to be wearing a brown shirt! With the Canadian Mint shut down, and the US Mint running out of everything, I’m sure these bars will deliver themselves. From where I’m sitting, I don’t see a problem, do you? I am also quite curious about the ratio spread between Au/Ag. Could it be someone not onboard the Algo ship, is trying to stretch the spread till one side breaks? Only time will tell as we go thru an event, epic in the history of man.
So, remain calm. Have a smile on your face and a prayer for all who are sick. May the recovery be short, so we can start to move forward again. We love our countries, and we are built to make life better. Keep the faith and as always…
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It seems too much is going on; the news is overwhelming. We‘ve witnessed over the past week our Federal Reserve cut rates to zero with reactions from Canada, and the UK, but not Europe. We all know that Repos are accelerating, more than doubling the doublings since September and the creation of new money is like watching Mount St. Helen’s and Krakatoa going off at the same time with falling debris not affecting the population, yet. The fast-rising value in the US Dollar, is acting like a blow off top, as I witnessed the Dollar gain another 200+ basis points during the day. I am also quite certain that our long-term focus, over all these years, regarding the devaluation of the Dollar and the rise of precious metals, is much closer to happening.
What I haven’t heard or seen, is how many central banks have adjusted their rates? Since I watch currencies, I figured my sources would have an article, in kind words, telling me what’s happening up there in the canopy of international currency, but alas. Maybe I need another set of sources, considering! Sometimes, asking a search engine a question that gets an accurate response is trying, very trying, but sometimes we can get good answers! Like this one I found. It’s not a story, but a list that shows 14 central banks have already reduced rates so far this month. (click the “date of change”).
While main stream media continues to fail to deliver, with the banks running rates to the ground, and in a fear type way, it’s comforting to come here every day and to listen to the boys; Jim, Bill, Dave, and Denny, talk about things the media can’t/won’t, as the world’s financial system seems to be melting down before our very eyes. The Boys Challenge the Narrative with big breaths and common sense … stay close and as always …
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Great and Wonderful Happy St. Patty’s Day Folks,
Golds value remains inside yesterday’s trading range with the price at $1,470.80 down $15.70 after dipping to $1,465.60 with the ICE rally high at $1,519.30. Silver is still leading the declines with the trade at $12.150, down 66.10 cents and at its low of $12.11 with the ICE high to beat at $13.230. The new quarter’s US Dollar trade (June) now has a value of 99.205, up 105.3 points after reaching up to 99.395 with the low at 98.105. Of course all this happened already, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, after the G7 threatened the world that it will survive even without human participation, after Nasdaq, Dow, S&P Futures surged limit-up but not locked, after fast food restaurants close their dining areas and playgrounds (rats!), and after the slow minded are told not to call 911 because they can’t find toilet paper. You will survive, Cowboy Up and just use a corn cobb.
In Venezuela, Gold’s value now sits at 14,689.62 Bolivar, showing a gain of 70.92 with Silver at 121.348 Bolivar, it too gaining 1.248. Argentina’s currency now has Gold’s value priced at 92,615.78 Peso’s proving a gain 680.86 overnight with Silver gaining 9.591 A-Peso’s priced at 765.064. In Turkey, the Lira has Gold’s value pegged at 9,552.16 showing a gain of 187.31 with Silver’s price at 78.9041 proving a gain of 1.9642 in T-Lira value. All this is definitely a good sign to see, but we need to get past Thursday’s Tripling Witches.
March Silver’s Delivery Demands now sit at 375 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts, showing a drop in count of 285 contracts that either got receipts, entry/exited a spread, or were sent to London so they can be dumped here again (or?), after yesterday’s trading range swung between $14.885 and $11.885 with the closing price at $12.772 and after the Volume reached 103 before the close. So far this morning Mr. Resolute has yet to appear, in fact there are no trades posted at all. Maybe he too is waiting for the Tripling Witches attempt to force the prices lower to prove how good they are at casting a bearish spell using paper instead of a wand. The IMF is at the ready, and if they are to continue on, we could see Silver for free by the end of the week. Silver’s Overall Open Interest continues to collapse as the prices keep dropping with the old school view; if Prices and Open Interest drop together, the Longs are exiting. I’ll continue to leave room for that belief (barely), at the same time, imo this market is run by Algo’s not traders. The Algo’s number one job is to remove the old ideas (emotions) with their micro-second trading rhetoric to prove how wrong a trader’s emotional responses are. The Open Interest now sits at 168,978 Overnighters proving another 3,681 contracts (or spreads) exited the trade.
March Gold’s Physical Demand Count now sits at 64 fully paid for contracts, proving a gain of 13 with yesterday’s trading range between $1,569.10 and $1,452.10 with the adjusted closing price at $1,485.90 and with a total Volume of 192. So far this morning we have a Volume of 2 up on the board with a trading range between $1,471.40 and $1,469.30 with the last Buy/Sell at the high. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is also collapsing as yesterday’s activity will prove a drop in count of 12,552 Obligations leaving today’s starting total at 573,337 Overnighters.
The idea of Algo’s trading instead of people has been discussed many times already, but not in depth as to how they can control the direction behind a mask. Once again, I do not know if this is a certainty because I do not have the Algo data like certain individuals inside an element have, or our regulators, it is only a running thesis. If a certain element was in a spread trade, say to the tune of 100,000 positions, it would be easy to manipulate the price against the emotions of human trading. Let’s look at Silver for instance, and in between the Life of Contract High in Paper at 246,078 that occurred on March’s Option Expiration Day (Feb 25th) to now at 168,978. If one was to key the Algo (and its friends) to drop the prices hard, all the algo would have to do is sell all their longs in the spread and all at once, causing a hard drop in price overtaking any buying and changing the dynamics from positive to negative. Then the same algo system would be instructed to buy back their sold positions slowly, in order to re-enter the spread throughout the day, as those that were on the wrong side are forced out with a loss.
At the same time the algo is buying back into their long positions (re-entering) of the spread trade, the Short side (of the spread) would be buying back and lightening up the spread count which in turn winds up masking the drop in Open Interest. Like we are seeing in Silver’s Paper Count which lost 77,100 pieces of controlling paper these past 15 trading days. The algos all signal one another, which has removed the text messages and barroom discussions many were caught doing before the algos setup their signals.
We still believe in Silver and Gold, they will be used to reboot the system, all it takes is surviving the BS till the reboot. So, hang in there, keep the attitudes positive, keep a smile on your face (behind the mask), and as always …
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Great and Wonderful Finally a Friday Folks,
Gold is trading lower, but definitely not as bad as last nights starting point with the trade at $1,586.30 down $4 after dipping down to $1,551.00 with the high to beat at $1,594.20. Silver is down 22 cents after yesterday’s “selloff” with the trade at $15.785 after dipping down to $15.300 with the high nearby at $15.890. The US Dollar, after collapsing 5% worth of purchasing power before the Fed came and rescued their friends, has recovered (cough) by doing a 50% retracement and is now valued at 97.760, up 29.6 points with the high right here at 97.810 with the low at 97.335. Of course, all this happened after a week on absolute confusion, before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the S&P and Dow did a lock limit up while we slept. Yahoo! Nothing like a good night sleep, let’s see how many people are awake, to believe this one after we witnessed 2 separate limit downs this week and in the same markets.
In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 15,843.17 Bolivar down 547.32 from yesterday’s beating with Silver at 157.653 showing a loss of 8.189 Bolivar. Argentina’s currency now has Gold valued at 99,368.90 Peso’s as the currency push – pulled Gold below the sixth digit to the left with Silver at 988.856 A-Peso’s it too seeing the currency removing its 4th digit as well as losing 50.334 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 9,949.10, losing 302.97 in T-Lira value and pushing its price below the fourth digit with Silver at 99.0218 T-Lira, also losing 4.7282 in value and its 3rd digit as well.
March Silver Deliveries continue to confound with the count now at 540 fully paid for contracts showing a loss of 95 orders either getting receipts or sending those EFP’s to London with yesterday’s trading range between $16.615 and $15.60 with the last trade at $15.87 and with the adjusted closing price at $15.961 where a total Volume of 51 traded. As of this morning we have a trading range for the 27 contracts (the Volume) that already switched hands between $15.765 and $15.405 with the last trade at $15.580. Silver’s Overall Open Interest now sits at 180,080 showing a reduction of 3,297 Overnighters as many believe that only the longs exited and are the only ones causing this as we see things slightly different.
March Gold’s Deliveries is showing another gain in count with the total now at 127 fully paid for contracts proving an increase from yesterday’s swaps that had a trading range between $1,647.50 and $1,566.40 with the last trade at $1,589.30 increasing the count by 15 contracts during the day where 256 receipts or spreads swapped in or out. Once again, the Comex logic is the challenge that will iron itself out when the last bar under the control of the centrals is removed. Gold’s Overall Open Interest really took a drop with the count now at 600,379 Overnighters proving that 30,130 (possible) Short Obligations left the Comex.
Gold has turned positive as we end today’s missive with the trade now at $1,593.00 with Silver still being dragged along at $15.810 with the dollar sharply higher at 98.215. Yahoo! We’re saved again! But from what? Monday starts our Triple Witch Week, with the centrals doing their balancing act as the March Currencies all die together bringing in the new quarter’s trade, aka the June contracts, which becomes the primary trading vehicle. Then Treasuries get rolled over or cashed in with the S&P and the rest closing out at the end of the week. Next week might be something to behold for Silver and Gold as we wait for more emergency print (that is called “NOT QE”) to occur again because the investment arena seems to be complaining about liquidity, regardless of how much has been printed already. Have a safe and restful weekend, have a smile on your face and a prayer in your heart, and as always …
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There is so much commotion going on over the past few months, it has become scary and confusing no matter where one looks for news. The Covid19 has changed everything when it comes to the Just in Time Delivery System and is also taking lives as we witnessed China react like never before. We have done our level best to stick with the idea that the central banking system has no choice but to print in order to stay in control, and will continue to need to do so, as the printers look for other newsworthy excuses to keep it up.
Our Velocity of M2 Money, which only gets updated every 3 months, should be amended soon. We expect the issues of low money flow to remain as we’ve highlighted over the years and as we exit out of the 1st quarter of 2020. The Baltic Dry Index is starting to climb and hopefully it’s a real believable stat as the issues of containers leaving China, are magically showing up, strong enough to raise the global cargo vessels in almost overnight fashion. Of note, the very next day after Wuhan was lifted out of quarantine, the BDI went higher! That’s some pretty fast and accurate updating in a world completely stopped of almost all shipments from that nation.
In a way, we’ve been searching thru the data the way the “outsiders” did in the movie “The Big Short” just before the housing market puked. Going thru the stats is where gems of truth can be found which go against the advertised statistics like those in the most recent BDI posts. Most recently, scheduled containers going into China have curtailed the most since 2017. To add to the previous slowdown ..” this year, the traffic slowdown, with both fewer scheduled calls and more cancelled ones, is occurring much earlier. This comes even though many airlines have announced cancelling flight service, reducing air cargo capacity and forcing manufacturers to switch to waterborne transportation even for higher-value and more time-sensitive cargo.”
Checking out the airlines next “Flybe’s collapse could be the ‘first of many’ airlines” going into “bankruptcies, (which) should be expected in the coming months”. This is highlighting the facts that all international flights (travel and cargo) are being used less and less with the Covid19 being used as an excuse for an already faltering global economy. This historical chart shows the annual growth in global air traffic passenger demand from 2006 to 2020, providing a much bigger issue over with 2018 (factual) and 2019 (estimate) highlighting the fact of a 43+% reduction has already happened before the virus.
The point here is the only things that got bigger has been the printing and the depth of deception. With all this newly printed money going where it would benefit the few over the many. This has yet to improve the flow of money. If the shipping/travel stats actually did improve, they have to beat what was lost before the virus hit. That requires a much stronger economy, with employees making enough, to not only feed the family and pay the rent and taxes, but to be able to buy manufactured products instead of making due with what one has. The focus is still on a global economy, on life support, that took a gut punch to the body, while in a coma.
Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,
Gold is trading higher after the weekend, but not as high as the opening minutes, with the trade at $1,679.40, up $7 after reaching $1,704.30 (up $31.90) before all the calm was put into place, with the low at $1,658.00 right around the time of the London Open. Silver should be have had the police called out for the beating it’s taking right now, because a certain element can’t let it go, with the trade at $16.960, down 30.3 cents and after the first shot out of the gate put the price at $17.615 (+35.2 cents), with the starting London low at $16.570. The US Dollar, continues to collapse with the trade at 95.145, down another 78.9 points, yet it too has recovered from the fear, with all this “calm” being added after the trade dipped down to 94.665 with the Sunday night starting point at 95.780, Man oh Man What a Night For a Fright! Of course, all this happened already, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the S&P500 went “Lock Limit Down”, Crude Oil traded $10 lower, and after the spot month in the 30 Year Treasury went 13 full basis points higher! Something I’ve never seen before in over 25 years!
The Emerging Markets Currency Watch is showing the Calming Algo Machine is still working and in control. In Venezuela, Gold is under attack, as expected after last week’s IMF warning, with the price at 16,773.01 Bolivar, a lose of 77.90 with Silver at 169.388 showing a gut punch loss of 7.894 Bolivar over the weekend. The Argentine Peso is gaining value and pushing Gold lower with the trade at 104,842.09 showing a weekend loss of 305.27 A-Pesos with Silver losing 28.31 Peso’s with the super sale price of 1,058.94. Over in Turkey, the Lira has Gold beaten down to 10,272.30 showing a loss of 24.43 T-Lira with Silver losing 2.795 T-Lira’s with the price at 103.740.
March Silver’s Delivery Demands shows a count of 749 contracts up on the board, proving a drop of 21 fully paid for 5,000 ounce obligations waiting for receipts and with a trading range between $17.435 and $16.570 with the last buy/sell at $16.960, showing us how those, that have the metals to sell, would rather sell at the lower prices than what used to be called normal, selling at the higher prices. Silver’s Overall Open Interest shows a small decline in count, since Friday mornings write up, with the total now at 196,042 Overnighters, proving a loss of 1,362 short contracts as of right now, with the idea that tomorrow morning, the shorts will have proven it piled on more than can be seen now. This activity can’t last much longer as our Resolute Buyers are soaking up their sells.
March Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a count of 97 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Bigger Volume of 118 already posted up on the board with a trading range between $1,701.60 and $1,657.70 with the last buy/sell price at $1,675.30 proving the same point that the holders would rather lose value before they liquidated than sell at the higher price, this is done even after the fear trade was put into place, around the world. Gold’s Overall Open Interest proves the shorts are getting out while they can and during their manipulations with the count now at 668,692 Overnighters, proving a strong reduction of 21,318 Obligations during Friday’s trades. We expect the shorts to have piled on their game one more time as they attempt to tell everyone they remain calm even though we have a lock limit down in the Stock Market. You see, these Algos are not afraid of the Coronavirus, they fear being unplugged.
“Lock Limit” is a term we use in the Commodity Sector. Reaching a “limit” is one thing which means a single trading month’s transaction reached the maximum move allowed, but is still trading. A “Lock Limit” is when the 3 first (front) months of the same Commodity hits the limit at the same time, then all trading stops. The S&P and the Dow Jones have “Lock Limited Down” in the overnight, meaning no more trades until later today. This is a “very scary moment” for anyone who is long a contract in either market because there are no buyers for their sell orders. “Lock Limit Down” is the exact opposite of what we expect in precious metals when they finally go exponential, when it is declared a “Lock Limit Up” or a “Time Out” since the rules were changed over a decade ago and for no reason.
A quick lesson here is in the Commodities Sector’s Options Board. When a market goes lock limit, many are stuck in place, some winning and other losing equally, that’s when we look into the options to see how much more the markets might have traded “if” there was no limit move. The March S&P closed Friday at 2964.00 and is now at 2819.00 down 145 points. The March S&P 2970 “Put” closed on Friday at 96.25 with the last trade/post in the early morning at 170. The Option was “just in the money” at the Friday close and is now 170 points higher in value yet the market this derivative is made from is down 145 telling us another 25 points would have kept this market from locking limit.
China again, has cancelled most of their flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, drawing public speculation that the changes were precautions “related to the novel coronavirus outbreak…. According to flight-tracking websites, almost all flights from Shenzhen and Guangzhou to Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou were cancelled after 5:15 p.m. local time on March 5. Some of the flights to Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, and other top Chinese cities were cancelled as well. On March 6, flights resumed but were delayed.…with all passenger trains departing from Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing city, Chengdu in Sichuan province, Zhongshan in Guangdong province, and many other major Chinese cities also stopped operations on March 6.”
Hopefully you are prepared for a staycation, while the world sorts out the lies from the truths in all media and governments, as we observe the rising global death tolls. Keeping Calm is a must, it allows those that can a chance to make decision’s not based in fear while those that do panic, prove why it’s safer to Keep Calm. Have a smile on your face and a kind thought in your heart, no matter what, and as always …
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Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,
A violent reversal has occurred in Gold with Sunday’s 3pm pst opening price for April Gold at $1,592.80 up $26.10 then raced to $1,612.10 (the high so far) with the right now price at $1,597.10 with the low at $1,576.30. The Red Headed Step Child – Silver is still taking the beatings (and is getting stronger because of it) with its opening price at $16.50, up only 11.3 cents from Friday’s closing price with the rally sending it to $17.06 before they settled it down with the low at $16.445 and the right now price at $16.80 up 33.7 cents. The US Dollar is finally losing some altitude with the trade at 97.605, down 47.6 points and recovering from the low of 97.460 with the high at 98.045. Of course, all this happened already, while we slept, before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after 2 days of spike trades occurring in all US treasuries.
Gold’s price under the Venezuelan Bolivar is still being sent lower with the trade at 15,951.04 Bolivar showing a loss of 239.70 over the weekend with Silver at 167.790 Bolivar, taking away another 3.396 in value. Argentina’s Peso has Gold’s value pegged at 99,227.88 showing a reduction of 1,365.08 Peso’s with Silver at 1,043.70 Peso’s as the currency took away another 19.90 A-Pesos off of Friday’s price. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold now sits at 9,954.15 showing a 123.57 T-Lira takeaway from Friday with Silver also losing 1.85 T-Lira with today’s price pegged at 104.710. With the emerging markets still sinking the precious metals, one may wonder if we’re finally going to see the primary currencies rally the precious metals now like they did under these 3 currencies a few years ago? The “Sit tight and be right” mindset may all of a sudden have a much bigger meaning under the US Dollar.
March Silver’s Delivery Count now sits at 1,104 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts waiting for receipts and with the Volume at 305 up on the board with a trading range between $16.975 and $16.390 with the last price at $16.74. Our starting count for the month in deliveries totals 5,520,000 Ounces of Silver standing the chance of being removed somewhere in between the real and the fake (real honest to God Comex take-out at the delivery window or the EFP’s going to London). Silver’s Overall Open Interest fell by 17,329 Overnighters from Friday mornings quote with the count now at 201,349 Obligations showing a huge removal as we witnessed a panic during last week’s beatings. The loss in Silver’s Open Interest count from Tuesday’s Option Expiration Day to Friday’s tally was 44,729 Overnighters, one of the biggest drops I’ve witnessed in a very short period of time.
March Gold’s Delivery Count stands at 252 fully paid for 100 Ounce Contracts and with a Volume of 431 up on the board this morning with a trading range between $1,608.30 and $1,574.30 with the last Buy/Sell 5-lot at $1,601.00. Gold’s Overall Open Interest is now calculated at 701,001 Overnighters proving a reduction of 28,812 Obligations leaving the impression that only the Longs excited both precious metals on Friday. Btw, “leaving the impression” has many meanings and not necessarily just a “Long” exit. Keeping Watch!
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has sounded its alarm of concern after the US Treasuries started reversing slowly at first, then all of a sudden (Friday and today) as the Chinese import/export calamity starts to affect the global growth of the world’s economies. Then Goldman Sachs makes its statement claiming the possibility of 2 rate cuts in the next 2 weeks, with the expectations that a “coordinated” central bankers print-a-palooza may have to happen in order to keep things steady (but for who?).
We’ve prepared to stay in place, hopefully you are too. That also means staying in our positions as well even though last weeks fight against the price proved even more so that the manipulations are real and are failing. The outcome of all of this will be a real price discovery in all things under fiat. So, keep the attitudes positive no matter what, have a smile on your face and a prayer in your heart, and as always …