Posts Categorized: Bill Holter

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Usually it is too much beer that leads to a bar fight, in this case it was “unfairness” and exploitation of the poor!


Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100…

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this…

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay $1.

The sixth would pay $3.

The seventh would pay $7.

The eighth would pay $12.

The ninth would pay $18.

The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that’s what they decided to do..

The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve ball. “Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20”. Drinks for ten men would now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share?

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer

So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by a higher percentage the poorer he was, to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.

And so the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% saving).

The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% saving).

The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% saving).

The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% saving).

The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% saving).

The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% saving).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings.

“I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,”but he got $10!”

“Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved a dollar too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me!”

“That’s true!” shouted the seventh man “Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!”

“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison, “we didn’t get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!”

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and government ministers, is how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

Author Unknown

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Did I pique your interest with such a goofy title? We’ll get to that shortly but first let’s take a look at the question raised last week, “what are the chances of gold being down 15 days in a row”. I received the answer from statistician Jim Willie. The answer, “in a vacuum” is once in every 32,800 trading days.

This is something like once every 130 years but again, in a “vacuum”. This meaning strictly by chance such as a coin flip. But we do not live in a vacuum, no, we are now living during THE most bullish backdrop in history for gold or conversely THE most fundamentally bearish backdrop for paper currencies and debt. We do not live in a vacuum, we live in an era where the power structure is pulling all the stops to retain their system of power and control, namely U.S. dollar hegemony. Without writing another entire piece on gold manipulation, please understand the world we live in is “painted”. Let’s take a look at some of the artists and their work.

It is obvious (to those who can see truth and took the correct pill), there is and has been a “war” going on for your mind. This is not a recent event as we have seen this since the beginning of time. A prime example is socialism vs. capitalism. Other examples are liberalism vs. conservatism, the belief or non belief in a higher being (religion for a lack of better term), self reliance versus dependence, truth vs. non truth, or even good vs. bad. This “war” has always been around, however, the current tools available to sway opinion have not.

Specifically, the internet. It now turns out and proof has been provided that many entities are “lying” to you. We know many instances where government lies to us from economic numbers to climate theories, to false flag events, and even the money issued. We suspected previously but now know for sure the media is biased as they don’t even bother trying to hide it other than calling anything they disagree with as “fake news”. Companies like Google and Facebook mess with the minds of younger people by “filtering” searches, spreading “their news” and basically “shaping thought”. I would be remiss of course if I did not mention our universities and educational systems, “grabbing” impressionable minds at a young age is obviously the plan.

On the flip side (and though not always correct) are people like Robert Mercer. We see more truth from this side as their arguments are generally more logical and actual proof provided in many instances. But don’t be fooled as the “hunger for power” is just as strong.

The “real news vs. fake news” war has gotten so bad that people don’t even know what to believe anymore. I recently came across this link Scientists are Attempting to ‘Prove’ that ‘Religious’ People are Crazy – Study which was of particular interest to me because it suggests I have brain damage and am “crazy”. I have said we will not try to turn into the “God channel” because religious perspective is not why people seek our opinion. I have however professed my faith as a Christian. There is some very logical reasoning as to why there absolutely must be a higher being or creator. (I will not go there now but will point you in the correct direction should you contact me.) You can believe in a creator or not but you cannot argue the world would be a much better place were everyone to live their lives as Jesus displayed in the Bible! Logically, “doing the right thing” is normally the more difficult thing because it requires an action of “good” versus an easier action of “bad”. In any case, assuming you have read my work and heard interviews, I try to live within logic and with that comes truth. Maybe I am wrong but the search for truth is quite high on my list, brain damage isn’t.

OK, so what spurred such an odd title and writing. My wife Kathryn recently had foot surgery so I have been doing some of her errands. I went to the local producers market for locally grown food and met some really nice down to Earth folks, farmers. Yesterday we ventured into south Austin (baby San Francisco) for pizza. The crowd was mostly young (college students) and definitely “different”. I noticed that at most of the tables and booths, no one was talking or even looking at each other (even couples). Instead, they were texting (each other?), surfing the internet (posting to Facebook?), talking on the phone or whatever …but not interacting with whom they were sitting (except for selfies).

A group of four sat down next to us and the “smart” phones immediately came out. They were all eating pizza with one hand and using their phones with the other. One of the young girls had a nose ring…with a big hunk of cheese hanging from it. She didn’t know because she couldn’t see it …and no one sitting with her said anything because no one ever looked up from their phone. Being the insensitive jerk that I am (because the truth sometimes hurts), I said to everyone at our table (after turning my palms up) …”so, now I know why you shouldn’t wear a nose ring at an Italian restaurant”. Their table didn’t hear me and they walked out together with her cheese “hanging”…

So what’s my point? Please understand there is an absolute war on for your mind! You can either sit back and be “fed” information, or you can actively “seek” information in a search for the truth. Financially the entire world is about to go bust, this is factual mathematics. I saw two opposite ends of the spectrum over the weekend, self reliant rural farmers and totally dependent (and brainwashed by technology) urban dwellers. When the financial (and thus social) ship hits the sand, which of these groups will survive? Which of these groups has the intellectual, social and moral fabric to survive in a world that stops because credit stops? This is a very real question because there is no question credit will cease for a time … and maybe a very long time!

To finish, it is up to you to decide what is “real” and what isn’t. It is up to you to decide what is “truth” and what isn’t. Do not let anyone, any group, entity, or government force feed you “reality” because maybe it really isn’t …or won’t be shortly. YOU must decide what is real and take responsibility for your decisions because no one else is bound to and few will be able to. Follow your own gut and use your own God given common sense! I do not know who to attribute this quote to but it describes our world pretty well “Common sense is not a gift – it’s a punishment because you have to deal with everyone that doesn’t have it”

Standing watch while rubbing my eyes,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Comments welcome

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Please watch, forward or post my latest interview with Greg Hunter    

Also, below is our latest public article:

Zerohedge put out an interesting article yesterday: Why “Nothing Matters”: Central Banks Have Bought A Record $1 Trillion In Assets In 2017. Please note this is $3.6 trillion annualized rate so far this year.

Of particular note is this chart:


What jumps out at you should be the quadrupling of the their balance sheets since 2007 from $3.5 trillion to over $14 trillion.

So what exactly does this mean? Basically, to keep the system from imploding upon itself the world’s central banks had to “create” over $10 trillion of liquidity by purchasing assets onto their balance sheets. This is puts forth a “chicken or the egg” question, or actually two as you will soon see.

First, central banks have been buying everything …including stocks, to prevent the markets from turning down. It is safe to say they understand that with the leverage and derivatives outstanding they cannot allow markets to correct (or God forbid actually enter bear markets). They understand the “size” of the derivatives markets is so large, NO ONE can withstand a downturn and actually be called upon to perform their “insurance payments”.

So the central banks have a problem here, they are now “forced” to purchase assets to prevent market downturns but one should ask the question “who will they eventually sell to”? The answer of course is “no one” because there is no one large enough to take these assets off their books. Chicken or the egg question number one; did the central banks create the bubble going in to 2008 or did the bubble of 2008 create the current central bank balance sheet bubble?

While you are pondering that question, let’s look at another, much more important chicken or the egg question. Central banks “create money” via credit. They are now buying all sorts of assets from “pristine” (sovereign debt) to “ugly” (junk debt to get it off of bank balance sheets) to truly “stupid” (stocks). Also, please keep in mind central banks for the most part are the issuers of currencies, their balance sheets and what they are comprised of “backs” the currency. They have put themselves in the position of buying assets they know they can never sell. They can never sell because there are no buyers large enough to buy, AND, they would then be creating the downturn in markets they originally denied if they ever stopped buying let alone selling assets.

With the above in mind, what does this mean for the currencies they issue? Won’t they be forced to continually purchase ever more assets to prevent markets from collapsing? And doesn’t an ever larger balance sheet mean money supplies expanding and thus more currency units outstanding versus basically static amounts of real goods available? Do you see where this is going?

OK, chicken or the egg question number two; the central banks by definition create inflation (via currency and credit), does the continual creation of their “product” (fiat) in order to prevent the destruction (deflation) of their product …actually destroy their product? Simplified, because “money” MUST be created at ever greater amounts to avoid deflation, are the central banks forced to ultimately destroy their currency? The answer of course is YES. Central banks are forced in the exact same mathematical manner as any Ponzi scheme …to issue currency in an exponential manner.

What has actually happened was entirely predicable since 1913. At some point the U.S. (and thus the entire world as the dollar is the reserve currency) would reach debt saturation by definition. We did so in the 2006-2007 era. The only balance sheets left to “reflate” at that point were the sovereign treasuries/central banks themselves. They by result have destroyed their own balance sheets over the last 10 years. It is only a matter of time until this is fully recognized by the investing/consuming public and thus lose confidence in the central banks themselves. At this point, central banks will destroy their own currency by doing what they do …creating currency and credit. From here, the faster they run, the faster the boogeyman catches them!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Comments welcome

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

I started my summer hours this week and rode early to beat the heat of the day. When I left at 7:00 am gold was up $1.20. When I returned I saw silver down .28 cents and gold off $4 so I figured some sort of shenanigans. The dollar was weak when I left and weaker upon return so it had nothing to do with the dollar. Then I read this…$3billion worth of gold sold …again for perspective, this is nearly 4% of global production or almost two weeks worth. And again, who would sell like this if they wanted the best price for their gold?

Fast forward 30 minutes and gold is now positive for the day. Over the last few weeks we have seen weakness early in gold and strength toward the close. This is a big change. A much BIGGER change will be if gold can hold positive for the day and maybe even close stronger. This would be if my memory serves correctly, the first time a massive amount of paper raided the market which then closed the day positive. Also keep in mind how many “new” contracts (fake supply) it has taken to keep gold’s rise in check.

As Jim and I have said, we are at major inflection points in many (all) markets, a strong gold close today followed by a breakout from here would be a very bad signal for paper markets. An out of control gold market will spell doom for paper markets and lead to the plug being pulled! Monitor this closely!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration