Posts Categorized: Bill Holter

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

What a two weeks this has been!  First, Russia announced they would only accept rubles (or of course gold) for gas, then followed by a 5,000 ruble bid per gram through June 28 for any sellers of gold.  As mentioned in my article last week “Did you hear the shot” Did You Hear The Shot? ( this was THE biggest (and most ingenious) news since 1973. 

Ingenious?  Absolutely!  I have been on record for many years that COMEX/LBMA/LME would eventually be broken and forced into a failure to deliver.  I stand by that, but I must admit that the method being used by Russia is not what I had envisioned.  I was wrong.  My thought process was that a cartel, or foreign sovereigns (or just one sovereign) would load up on contracts and demand delivery.  This type of action would certainly have elicited the response of the US military.  

Rather than a frontal assault on deliverable gold, Russia has chosen to let the world assault the exchanges via arbitrage, let me explain.  When Russia first announced their bid for gold grams, because the ruble had fallen so dramatically after their operations in Ukraine began, the math worked out to only about $1,450 per gold ounce.  Naturally the gold bugs panicked because the bid was so low.  What they missed was looking at the 30 days before the invasion.  If that average ruble price was used, then gold would have been bid near $2,000.  In the days that followed Russia’s bid, we have seen the ruble continue to strengthen where the 5,000 ruble bid is now just under $1,900.  In fact, early last week when gold (and silver) were attacked on the COMEX, price got to within about $20 of Russia’s bid and then immediately rallied back above $1,900.  I give you this background to see where this will lead… 

So here we are, Russia will only accept rubles (or gold) for their gas, it can only be a short time before rubles will be demanded for ALL Russian commodities.  They have created their own positively self-reenforcing loop!  Very few nations hold any rubles as part of their monetary reserves.  On average, global central banks hold roughly 60% of their reserves in dollars.  What this will do is force buyers of Russian goods to sell some of their monetary reserves (whether they be dollars, euros, yen, pounds, or what have you) to purchase rubles for payment.   

This is almost an exact mirror of Kissinger’s deal with the Saudis which created the petrodollar.  Without a doubt, the ruble will strengthen versus the dollar (and all the other fiats) because dollars etc. will necessarily be sold to purchase rubles for trade settlement.  The genius of this is that as the ruble strengthens, the bid for gold grams will go higher and higher and thus revaluing Russia’s gold reserves higher.  But this is only part of the genius …as the West is and has been massively “short” paper gold contracts used to suppress price.  Vladimir Putin well knows that the Achilles heel to the dollar and all other fiats is Gold, or better described, the PRICE of gold in those fiats.  As the gold price rises, confidence in those fiats wane. 

So rather than a frontal assault on exchanges which would be seen publicly as an attack, Mr. Putin decided to act in a manner that benefits Russia …without forcing an immediate and public attack.  Make no mistake, the outcome and consequences will be exactly the same, but no one can claim Russia is demanding anything other than to sell their resources in their own national currency AND accumulate more gold reserves along the way!  The “consequences” by the way are extremely ruble friendly and dollar negative. 

Another aspect that I must admit I missed is this; prior to Russia’s announcement, who in the world would have projected it would be the ruble that took down the dollar?  It was only 30 years ago that the ruble, and thus the Soviet Union collapsed as they ran out of hard currency (gold).  In all the 30 years since, I have never seen or heard of the scenario where the ruble takes down the dollar but here it is and in your face!  Year after year and bubble after burst bubble, the West has financially engineered themselves into a corner.  More and more debt was assumed and paper derivatives of all sorts were written at the expense of commodity pricing.  That has now changed and the massive commodity shorts will be burned in nickel fashion! 

The world has changed more dramatically in the last month than any time since 1971 when the US defaulted the gold standard and 1973 when the petrodollar was cooked up.  As a child of the 1960’s who practiced “duck and cover” in elementary school, I find it astonishing that it took Russia to start the world back on the road to REAL and FAIR settlement.  Oh the irony! 

Lastly, over the years, Wall St. has been fixated on many things from money supply, to unemployment, the 10 yr Treasury yield and even overnight repo loans.  Now, the only thing that matters for the foreseeable future will be the dollar/ruble cross exchange rate.  In essence, a financial war between Russia and the US via their currencies has begun.  I do not envision this to be a protracted “financial war” for the simple reason that the US and the rest of the West is so highly indebted and financially entangled via derivatives.  The nickel market implosion is the road map to financial and living standard hell for the West, other commodity markets will ultimately follow as sure as the Sun will rise tomorrow.  If you wondered what the reset will look like, just keep your eyes open and watch what unfolds over the next several months!  

Standing watch,  

Bill Holter

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Biden & Putin Just Killed The U.S. Dollar — Bill Holter
April 1, 2022

From SGT Report:

Bill Holter joins me to discuss what we believe to be the final nail in the US Dollar’s coffin – and it’s Joe Biden’s fault. Putin has called Biden’s bluff, and the death of the Dollar is now virtually guaranteed. Also, I explain how due to the paper manipulation of the silver market, YOUR labor is worth at least 36 TIMES more than a Roman soldier’s when priced in $25 silver.


Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

I have been involved in financial markets for roughly 40 years, the news out this past Thursday was in my opinion more important than ANY announcement during those years. In fact, when I heard it, I thought of it as “the shot heard ’round the world”! But here we are Sunday and almost no discussion nor coverage of “Russia will demand trade payment from the unfriendly countries (the West) in gold…or rubles if they wish”. Are people so dumbed down they do not understand what was said?

 First a little background. Russia has been sanctioned by the West and even had some of their FOREX reserves “frozen” (read STOLEN) in an effort to bleed them dry financially and stall military efforts. The freeze came several years after the US very mistakenly began threatening Russia with a cutoff from the SWIFT system. If anyone believes that Vladimir Putin has not used these years since the original threats, to prepare, I believe you are grossly mistaken. You see, the West absolutely needs Russian trade material more than Russia needs dollars.

 Russia does not need the dollars to survive because they are not highly indebted. In fact, they are only 14% debt to GDP whereas most western nations are well above 100%. Besides, who does Russia owe money to that requires dollar payments? Western financial institutions? Do you see where this goes? By using SWIFT and the dollar as a weapon versus Russia, the US just blew a hole under the waterline in the USS Dollar!

 To explain, if Russia demands either gold or rubles from the West, then recipients of trade will need gold and or rubles to make settlement. Some nations still have gold (poor Canada) but few have any rubles held in their reserve accounts. (In fact, the US has very small foreign reserve balances as it was not needed with the dollar itself being the world’s reserve currency and dollars can and are simply printed). How will the US settle trade with Russia? By sending Ft. Knox gold…which may or may not be there as no audit has been done since the 1950’s? Or by paying with rubles which we do not own? Or will we just forego the many natural resources we import from Russia?

 The net result is severe dollar weakness and a strong bid under gold AND the ruble because any western nation wishing to import Russian material will need to either buy gold or rubles for payment. Another way of saying this is; they will need to sell either their local currency (or their dollar reserves held) in order to procure gold/rubles to make payment. Do you remember when supply and demand used to “matter”?

 In the same way that Russia views the Ukraine as we did the Cuban missile crisis, Russia’s demand for payment in gold/rubles is to Kissinger arranging for Saudi Arabia to ONLY accept dollars for oil. Settlement flows are huge and not just on the margin. They are not just huge, they are “contagious” if you will? There are many countries who today use dollars because they have to, they have been forced to. I also believe much of the current trade settlement in dollars would be done in other currencies if it was “allowed”. It will not be a shock to see dollar trade flows shrink dramatically as many nations will use this as an opportunity to shed their dollar hegemony shackles!

 Let’s finish with an overview. The US has for years relied on “King dollar” to support living well beyond our financial means. Having the privilege of issuing the world’s reserve currency (and the most powerful military) allowed the US to borrow $ trillions upon trillions. This is now changing after our bungled retreat from Afghanistan…and now Russia challenging the trade dollar. Can you imagine what US GDP would have been all these years without massive deficit spending? Can you imagine the levels where equity markets would be trading if not for all the easy and free credit thrown around? Can you imagine where interest rates would have been (and will be) if it wasn’t for reserve currency privilege? And thus, can you imagine what the US standard of living would have been? Unfortunately, we are about to find out the answers to all these questions!

 Lastly, please understand the coming problems as they will entail every facet of life. US (and global) financial markets will be greatly affected as lower dollar demand will create a de facto margin call on an already struggling Ponzi scheme. Also, trade balances will be forced back into relative realignment. Meaning those with the greatest trade deficits will feel the pain the most. Especially those nations that allowed their manufacturing and production to leave and instead import. Is the current predicament because of poor judgement/decisions/planning…or, was it the plan all along?

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

SWIFT is the U.S. clearing system for payments, both internally and globally. To this point in time, the entire world has relied on SWIFT to settle the vast majority of trade and transfer payments. It was created, administered, and controlled by the U.S. since 1973 (same year as the “petrodollar” was launched) and stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication.

 A few years back, Washington began making threats versus Russia that they would be sanctioned and cut off from SWIFT. We said at the time and still maintain to this day that using SWIFT as a threat against Russia (or any nation for that matter) was a grave error. We posited that threatening Russia with a cutoff from SWIFT would force them to create their own system which would ultimately attract other trade partners as users. It seems this is exactly what has happened, yet no one in Congress seems to know? I say this because they now discuss “the mother” of all sanctions against Russia.

 As a response to the last several years of threatened and actual sanctions, we believe Russia has prepared for this moment in at least two ways, (and probably more). We know Russia has sold off ALL of their US Treasury holdings and replaced them with other sovereign debt and increased their gold holdings. It is also believed they have created their own settlements system. Have they incorporated blockchain?

 Also, much recent chatter has arisen re China working on and testing their own digital yuan currency. I would love to know if this would include gold somehow backing on a ratio basis? Should China come forth with a digital yuan (especially with gold backing), what would that mean to dollar hegemony? As an aside, what would it mean to the existing crypto world?

 As for crypto, how can anyone with a straight face call anything that drops in value (versus unbacked fiat) by 50% in just 60 days? A “store of value” they told us? We claimed and maintain that cryptos had an absolutely perfect accounting system of strictly limited (in most cases) supply of “nothings”. A speculation where many millionaires and billionaires were created? Yes! A currency that would be used to transact and a sound store of value? LOL!

 So here we are, watching the US poke the Bear in their own backyard and threatening them wait for it TO IMPLODE THE US DOLLAR by our own actions! Does Russia invade the Ukraine? I don’t know but my opinion is they do not need to for several reasons. All they need to do is sit back and wait for the idiots in Washington to throw the limp wristed punch of shutting them off from SWIFT. They will then have absolute cover for releasing and offering their own settlements system to the world?

 They also have a second punch since they are Europe’s largest supplier for energy. Will the Europeans respond to Russia demanding to be paid via their own settlements system by saying “no, we would rather use the dollar so we will freeze and close down our factories”? Fat chance! Would these events also push China forward with a crypto yuan? Can you envision any other timeframe more favorable?

 To wrap this up, sadly I believe the idiots in Washington are now too far down the road to back off and leave Russia, Russia, Russia alone. It is my opinion, Washington has their hands on the guillotine pin. The only problem though, is that it is the dollar itself strapped into the gallows, and the blade will come down directly on the U.S. Treasury! Should Washington move forward, they will give cover to any nation or even corporation who might like an alternative to the dollar. Which means less demand no matter how you slice it. Can anyone explain to me how the Treasury will finance multiple Trillion borrowing needs with dollar demand sinking like the Titanic? Anyone who answers “it doesn’t matter, the Fed will be the buyer of last resort”, has not been paying attention. I could say this is for all the marbles, but unfortunately the world does not play for marbles

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration\