Posts Categorized: Bill Holter

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Bill Holter is back and he says “Something Just Happened”. In fact, something changed three weeks ago and a series of events began which has led to a cascading collapse in global markets and some very strange happenings in the precious metals markets.

In silver last week there was confirmed volume of 122,482 contracts traded in a single day which represents 612 MILLION ounces of physical silver … or over 87% of annual global silver production. Meanwhile China has sold $100 billion worth of Treasury bonds over the last two weeks.

Bill warns, the leverage in all markets suggests a “holiday” will occur because the unwinding cannot be orderly. The “unwinding” by the way will need to undue the credit built upon credit going all the way back to Aug. 15, 1971.

Mr. Holter concludes: “We’re going to have an absolute Biblical collapse of our standard of living, and no one even has a clue that it’s coming.”

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Briefly and in plain English I would like to explain this to you. The “VIX” index, otherwise known as the fear “index” has been a major tool of the PPT and Associates in supporting the stock market. A “low” number is indicative of little fear while a high number shows more fear.  In an effort to support equities, this index has clearly been suppressed in price by selling more shares short than even exist.  (Does this sound familiar to gold and silver investors?).  This now poses a VERY BIG PROBLEM!

Plain and simple, with more shares short than exist, a short squeeze for the ages has been set up.  Knowing a big move upward in the VIX is also synonymous with lower stock prices, one can extrapolate (along with many other technical and fundamental weaknesses) a market crash of epic proportions will happen whenever this short squeeze is actually covered.  The “squeeze” has already begun with the VIX running up to 31.8 as of this writing.  The “crash” has also started worldwide if you have been paying attention.  In my opinion, the “short covering” has the potential to push the VIX index to all time high prices.  Greater than 2001, 2008 and even 1987.  Can you guess what this will mean to averages like the Dow Jones, S+P 500 or the NASDAQ???

Standing watch,

Bill Holter,
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com

VIX ETFs Are In Crisis Mode
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015 13:21 -0400

That’s what happens Larry when there are 64 million shares short and only 52.3 million shares outstanding…

VXX (Long VIX ETF) is exploding higher amid the short squeeze…

XIV (Inverse VIX ETF) is reflexively puking to new lows…

And that is dragging stocks lower…

More…

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

I must apologize to readers.  Shanghai has in fact reported deliveries for the last two weeks, I reported this incorrectly when writing they have not reported.  We try to be as accurate as possible but occasionally we err.  That said, “something” has definitely changed over the last 2-3 weeks as evidenced by market gyrations and volatility.  I stand by the rest of what was written, the knowledge something is different or changed should tell you past or existing trends in place should also be questioned.  Stay vigilant as volatility “kills” in an over levered system.
Standing watch.

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration

 

Dear CIGAs,

“Something” happened three weeks ago.  While we cannot be sure “what” exactly happened, we can speculate.  We have many dots and lots of data points to help us but first it needs to be pointed out, even if wrong in conclusion …just the knowledge alone that “something changed” is enough.  If you know something has changed, you can take clues and look at various markets for inflection points.  Currently, most markets are stretched to various limits.  Whether it be zero bound credit markets, equities, real estate, commodities or gold and silver, all values had reached extreme highs or lows.

Something changed three weeks ago and a series of events began.  It all started with China announcing 600 additional tons of gold.  This was followed by the IMF rebuff of China, the three yuan devaluations and three “coincidental” explosions.  Then equity markets around the world (which were already weak) began to violently unravel and finally spilled over to the U.S..  This tested the PPT’s limits (which were apparently $23 billion last week).

There were other behind the scenes dots which I missed and would like to add here before theorizing.  In the gold arena, the GLD inventory supposedly rose over the last two weeks even though gold was “weak” and being sold.  This was against a backdrop of very deep backwardation going out a full six months in London.  The current backwardation is further out in time and far larger in price than EVER before!  These two data points are in exact divergence to a dropping gold price.  Why would there be buying in GLD if gold was being panic sold?  Also, if real gold was being dumped, how could it be in backwardation or shortage?  Wouldn’t “sales” make product extremely plentiful?

There were several more major anomalies in gold.  As of Friday, there were 63 August contracts still open …even though the contract went off the board.  This has NEVER happened in 40 years!  How is this possible?  The day before on Thursday, there were 552 contracts open.  Can someone please explain to me why the shorts would not have delivered gold (like they did in the old days) on the first or second delivery day rather than waiting to the last day?  Someone has to pay for storage, why would the short want to pay for storage they are contractually able to deliver nearly 30 days prior and avoid the charges.  Are they having problems sourcing gold?  Just like several mints who have gone to rationing or halts of production …and exactly as the backwardation is suggesting?

Over in silver, did you know they had confirmed volume on Thursday of 122,482 contracts traded?  Did you know this represents 612 MILLION ounces of silver …or over 87% of annual global silver production ex China and Russia?  How in the world does 87% of a full year’s production trade in just several hours?  Doesn’t this go against commodity laws?  AND, silver was pummeled on Thursday so it was supposed to represent PANIC SELLING.  Who was panicking and needed to sell all that silver so fast?  …especially since the U.S. Mint just raised premiums and started rationing dealers because they couldn’t keep up with DEMAND!  Let’s not forget the Royal Canadian Mint, they have suspended sales of silver Maples!  Why or how could this be?  Everyone has been selling silver but the mint could not source any?  This defies pre school logic!

Let me give you another very strange data point.  The FRBNY (New York Fed.) always reports custodial gold holdings on the 28th or 29th of the month for the previous month.  They missed July 29th and reported on August 20 NO GOLD was shipped (to Germany for their repatriation program) when month after month they have been reporting close to 10 tons out the door.  What’s going on?

Before telling you what I think has changed, we need to look at what China has just done.  China has sold $100 billion worth of Treasury bonds over the last two weeks.  Before they sold these, they devalued their yuan by about 5% which is the same thing as making their dollar holdings worth 5% more in yuan …so they increased their sale by the equivalent of $5 billion!  Please understand the following because it is VERY important, we have not experienced hyper inflation in the U.S. because the debt was always “sterilized”.  We actually exported the inflation to other nations and as long as they did not sell the actual dollars (if they sold Treasuries), the trade remained sterilized.  It was reportedFriday China had actually sold their dollars realized from the Treasury sales for …you guessed it YUAN!  This drove the yuan up versus the dollar so China added even more to their trade.  Brilliant!

This topic deserves an entire writing and I’ll undertake it later.  Suffice it to say, the Federal Reserve had to buy the $100 billion worth of bonds.  This is “reverse” QE or as they now say “QT” (quantitative tightening).  As the great credit unwind continues, more and more Treasuries from China and other sources will hit the market and force the Fed to buy them.  This will take more and more “space” on the Fed’s balance sheet but they will have NO CHOICE unless they want interest rates to skyrocket.  In the end, the inflation we exported for so many years will come washing back on our shores like a tidal wave!

OK, what do I think “happened” three weeks ago?   On the original writing, I erroneously believed the SGE had not reported withdrawals for the last two weeks, this was incorrect and they have in fact reported withdrawals.  This led me to believe China was no longer being delivered gold.  No proof of this yet but it will mathematically happen.  Why?  Because the simple math says so.  China/India can only import more than total production for as long as Western vaults have metal to dishoard.  Once non delivery does happen  and becomes known, our hoard of “power” will be gone and so will the façade of financial strength.  Our standard of living will collapse into third world status hand in hand with a broken financial system.

Something behind the scenes has caused markets all over the world to convulse.  The likely candidate involves leverage and most probably derivatives.  As I wrote last week, “dead bodies must be strewn everywhere”,  call them walking dead institutions or whatever.  We have experienced 5% and even 10% moves in various markets in less than a week’s time or even in just one day.  Many derivatives are carried with just one or two percent margin, in other words the moves have been big enough to completely wipe out equity.  Winners become losers when the losers cannot pay and default.

There is one more piece of news that may be nothing at all or it may fit hand in hand with the above.  King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced a visit for this coming week with president Obama. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-king-plans-to-visit-us.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0  The press has speculated the meeting has to do with the Iran deal or even aggressions with Yemen.  I don’t think so.  My guess is King Salman may be coming to Washington to say “the deal is off”.  The “deal” being Henry Kissinger’s early 1970’s petrodollar.  I suspect Saudi Arabia will inform our commandeer in chief, they will begin accepting yuan for oil.  The Saudis have over the last year or more done many trade deals with both Russia and China.  It should only follow at some point they do not use dollars but instead use their own currencies.

Before finishing, Saudi Arabia increased their oil production at the behest of Washington to injure Russia.  I think the price drop got way out of control as the algos took over.  The drop was so severe it has seized up the U.S. fracking industry and put at least $500 billion worth of energy credit in jeopardy while China has filled up her storage reserves with cheap oil.  If I am correct about the gold default, China/Russia have also made strategic strides in trade with Iran and Saudi Arabia in preparation.

The important thing is you understand “something” very big has happened and trends are changing in many markets.  The leverage in all markets suggests a “holiday” will occur because the unwinding cannot be orderly.  The “unwinding” by the way will need to undue the credit built upon credit going all the way back to Aug. 15, 1971!

Standing Watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Two weeks back I asked the question whether or not the “Final War” had started, between the EAST AND WEST. I was called a number of politically incorrect names for suggesting the Tianjin explosion might have been an “attack” and took even more heat,… because I included the word “nuclear”. Since then there have been many theories as to what happened, some of them pretty far fetched. Yesterday another article was published in Veterans Today, http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/08/25/confirmation-tianjin-was-nuked/ which scientifically suggests the explosion was in fact “nuclear.” I am inquiring as to whether the science used as proof is in fact sound. In the meantime, I would like to hear from readers why or why not the science used in this article is correct or is not. Please do not send me “opinion” or tell me Veterans Today is a poor source. Please specifically attack the science!

I would like to use the Tianjin explosion as a mid point in my review of what happened before and since the tragic event. Prior to the Tianjin explosion, China announced they had accumulated 600 more tons of gold over the last 6 years. On the face of it; this number is clearly bogus as China mines 400 tons per year and none of this product leaves their border for export. I termed this 600 tons….a “polite number”. Seemingly, the number was enough to demand a place at the IMF table but not enough to be a threat to the “sacrosanct” 8,133 tons the U.S. claims. This was followed almost immediately by the IMF announcing it would review China’s inclusion in the SDR in another 9 months. Just two days later China began a series of three yuan devaluations, on day two the Tianjin explosion occurred.

Since then, China announced another 19 tons of gold accumulated. One week later the chemical explosion in Shandong destroyed one of China’s main trading cities (this chemical explosion looked nothing at all like Tianjin). Yes, I understand, different chemicals explode differently but the videos clearly look like fuel ordnance. Coincidentally, two days after the Shandong explosion… a U.S. munitions depot in Tokyo exploded. Maybe I have been sleeping or just haven’t been paying attention but when was the last time a U.S. munitions depot exploded by accident?

As we know so well; over the last two weeks, the chaos in global markets finally reached the shores of Manhattan. Market chaos, that had previously been quite widespread and headlined by China, finally gripped U.S. markets. Now we find out China has exited over $100 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in just the last two weeks and has indicated it is dumping more through Belgium and elsewhere.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington. We knew they had been selling over past months to the tune of nearly $150 billion, but $100 billion compressed into just two weeks is mammoth! I would also add “smart” because China did this selling while fear capital was clamoring to seek “safety” in risk free U.S. Treasuries. China traders appear to have effectively used the fear bid to their advantage as an exit. Please note I wrote “two weeks” several times above. Is it just coincidence Tianjin experienced the explosion “two weeks” ago?

A total of $250 billion worth of Treasury bonds have been sold, what does this imply? The T-bond selling appears to indicate a number of things, with possible multiple ramifications. First and foremost it says “they are not buying”! Of course the next logical questions follows;….”who” will step in to fund the U.S. deficits now that China has turned from buying to selling…In China they call it a Yin Yang. Also, who will the buyers be if China keeps selling? The logical conclusion; after answering the two above questions is…. “the Federal Reserve.” The follow on question is; will the Federal reserve need to commence another round of stimulus, QE 4 and more?

No matter how you look at China’s current financial position and about face, they will clearly no longer fund U.S. budget deficits in the foreseeable future. This leaves us with the misunderstood truth “the Federal Reserve is THE Buyer of last resort.” Worse yet; the Emerging Markets have had to jump the gun and have already started to unload U.S. Treasury’s as their currency falls to reflect lower trade and China’s devaluation of the Yuan.

Apparently, the U.S. has now crossed the Rubicon of sorts and will be forced to “print” deficit spending as a last resort. It is called MONETIZATION and has ALWAYS led to hyperinflation with existing “paper currency” becoming diluted and ever more worthless. The current situation is far more troubling and far reaching than any before it, because the entire world will be fearing a dilution of their “reserve base.” Dollar instruments (U.S. Treasury issues, etc.) are held by nearly ALL central banks and act as a foundation for all other fiat currencies, “infecting balance sheets all over the world.” For what ever reason; I would call a run from the Dollar “a plague,” but in fact, the situation is more like an infestation, the effects of a diluted dollar could well be… far more than any plague in history.

I would like to ask you a few questions. Is there any way you can look at the chronological events over the last month and not conclude they are connected? Is it not clear China/Russia and the U.S. are in a trade, currency, military confrontation, one that might lead to a shooting war? Even the mainstream media reports on U.S. spying and SinoRuso hacking. The West, led by the U.S. have evolved entirely into a “credit based” society …funded in large part by China. Can you look at China’s sales of Treasury securities and say they are not pulling the credit plug? Can you in any way, from a U.S. standpoint, say this is beneficial, or helpful to the U.S.? Or, might it be overt financial war?

China is building military bases throughout the Pacific on man made islands and telling the U.S. to mind their own business, in spite of Pres. Obama’s pivot to the Pacific. The U.S. and NATO are amassing troops and hardware on Ukraine’s border. On the other side Russia is doing likewise. Now we are seeing aerial attacks in Syria, etc. John Kerry has even said; ” If the U.S. does not ratify the deal with Iran, the dollar will lose it’s reserve currency status.” He said this because five nations in Europe have already agreed and sent delegations to Iran to open trade channels. Would this not isolate the U.S. further in energy, trade and finance? As for the series of explosions, could they be coincidence? Yes. Do you believe they are? Or,.. maybe “too coincidental?”

Are there too many coincidental technological, financial and geopolitical dots lined up to come to any conclusion other than we are already in the early stages of war? I believe this is in fact the case. I still believe the Chinese would prefer to “win” via financial means, rather than physical means, but this remains to be seen. Would a ” 9/11 truth bomb,” which is now rumored more often out of Russia, be another way to neuter American hegemony without military use?

As a final thought, I believe global markets are beginning to discount or recognize the war behind the scenes. This is the reason for the chaos in equity and credit markets. Can you imagine what it looks like behind the derivatives curtain? Guaranteed;…. there are dead bodies strewn all over,… with no ability to perform or settle. When history looks back upon August 2015, I believe the consensus view will agree THE WAR had already started!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter -Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

When planning to write this piece, the Dow was up 250 points or so with 45 minutes of trading left. The anticipated bounce (if China cut rates) arrived this morning with a 442 point upward thrust. This on a report card could be categorized as a “C-” or even a “D+”, very poor in my estimation. As I sat down to write the Dow was up 24 points and turned negative before I wrote the first word! This is HORRIBLE ACTION and outright scary if you are a Bull! The PPT (plunge protection team) got their butts kicked for the third or fourth day running. To let the market give up 500 points in just one hour shows their weakness or lack of capitalization. Many will look at today’s close and say “UH OH”!

What will this mean for tomorrow? We first have to see what happens tonight in the Asian markets and in particular China …which I suspect the big money brokers have already done. Somehow, my guess is they already sense a rout in Asia and this is the reason for the abrupt turnaround to front run another big dump tomorrow. The bounce was weak, it turned negative and closed at the worst levels of the day …NOT exactly that warm fuzzy feeling! “Look out below” seems to now be a continuing theme.

To reiterate what I’ve written over the last few days, this is all about the Great Credit Unwinding. It is my belief the players are beginning to sense this. Lower rates did nothing to fix Japan’s economy for 25 years, it has done less than nothing in aiding the U.S. economy for the last 8 years …why will it do anything for China? So far China has used versions of the Western playbook to thwart the rout. They have outlawed short selling, made it illegal for many institutions to sell and the PBOC has overtly come in to support the markets… to no avail!

This is really scary folks, even the most bearish expected a better bounce than we got today. What happens tomorrow if Asia/China get no bounce at all? The Fed has no room to lower rates, neither does the ECB. To be a central bank(er) and to get no “respect” from the markets is the most terrifying event one could think of.

Digging deeper, what do you suppose has happened over the last few days in the derivatives arena? There have been HUGE gains and losses in the $trillions or even $10’s of trillions! Notice I wrote “gains and losses”? How would you like to be an institution with a losing position of some sort …hedged so there would be no loss …only to find out your counterparty cannot pay? Do you suppose this might have already happened? I can almost guarantee it already has and in many different markets, we just haven’t heard about it nor “who” died. In reality, it doesn’t matter “who died”. Just as someone drowning hangs on to their rescuer, the derivatives chain is connected from start to finish and loops back where the “start connects with the end”. In other words, when losers cannot pay, the gleeful winners get the bad news they are also losers. If one drowns, they all drown!

I also mentioned yesterday it would be good to monitor interest rates. The 10 year yield was as low as 1.9% yesterday and as high as 2.13% today. I believe the panic number will be 2.4%. Should this yield level give way (and you will hear it spun as “good” on CNBC), it will signal major central bank selling (led by China) overwhelming the Fed’s ability to sop up the selling. Time will tell but this is something I will continue to monitor.

The overleveraged world is experiencing deflation. “Beggar thy neighbor” by central banks to increase trade at the expense of other nations is the game. The “game” by the way is a static or shrinking (global GDP)! This is a no win strategy on a global basis because someone has to lose …and then you have the same scenario as in derivatives. Sovereign nations will default! The point is this, “losses” which have been hidden so far will need to be booked and realized. There are NO BALANCE SHEETS left, strong enough to absorb the losses! The Fed commencing another round of QE is now a lock. Outright monetization will be sniffed out and the current outsized demand for gold and silver may double or more …just as inventories and vaults in the West are running out.

Lastly let’s look at the dollar. Commodities including oil are being sold …for dollars. Demand for product is down and so is “price”. The petro dollar cannot function with 60% haircuts in dollar usage. This acts to also lessen velocity of dollars. A very bad combination for any Ponzi scheme, less demand and lower velocity. The previous “good” leverage reverses and comes down on itself. In this instance, the world’s reserve currency loses acceptance for the very reason “safety capital” should flock to it, deflation! Can you see this? The dollar cannot survive with deflation because not enough new money comes in to prop it up. The dollar MUST have inflation, without it, it dies. Today’s dollar is not the 1930’s dollar, pegged to gold that was deflation proof. The foundation then was gold. Today the dollar’s foundation is nothing more than debt, TOO MUCH DEBT! In fact, dollars are only promises …to pay you more dollars! The perfect financial storm? Yes. There is still time (probably very little) to get your affairs and positions in order. I pray anyone reading this does so!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome!  bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

As a follow up from yesterday’s A Weekend’s Heads Up , my thoughts were truly an understatement for today’s action! The open was far weaker than I had anticipated, down 1,089 points. This was the biggest point drop in Dow history. The volatility was out of control with the VIX trading to 53, the highest since Feb. 2009! An illustration of how much and how fast the volatility was, total point movement in the first 90 minutes was 3,000 Dow points, 4,900 total for the day! Truly incredible!

So where do we go from here? Unless we get some sort of central bank news out of China, we open down again tomorrow and see if they can get a reversal going. We are well over sold and due a bounce …but ALL crashes have occurred from oversold readings. While talking to Jim after the close, he initially said “the PPT got their ass kicked today, it would not have happened if I was running their desk”. Let me explain this because it is SO IMPORTANT.

Today was all about credibility and confidence. “They” could not allow what actually happened because it showed weakness. Or better yet, it exposed their inability to hold it all together. Today was not about margin calls, Mom and Pop selling or even mutual fund/pension plans. No, you saw “algorithms” go wild today and it turned out the algos were bigger than the PPT. Huge mistake by the PPT because just as in a street fight, “weakness” provokes aggression and now the algos know how powerful their punch is! They could not let “it happen” …they did, HUGE MISTAKE!

After the close, the muppets at CNBC are already pleading for help from the Fed. Jim summed it up when he penned this:

“A market break like today (called recalibration by financial TV money bunnies) in which the PPT was defeated screams “ultimate deflation.”

The immediate implication of “Ultimate Deflation” among the unwashed and not knowing is bearish on gold.

The basis for our thesis on gold and major new highs in metals is “Ultimate Deflation” and how global central banks will react.”

For those who do not understand, the Fed (as I mentioned yesterday and previously) has a zero percent chance of raising rates and will in fact be forced into further QE. The “Ultimate Deflation” we are experiencing guarantees that central banks ALL OVER THE WORLD will be forced to print and debase furiously! It is not the current action that will kill you…it is the REACTION from the central banks!

Today was a “warning shot” to start, maybe even a shot INTO the bow as the close stunk up the joint. I still expect some sort of stabilization where investors (lead on by the CNBC muppets) will breathe a very short term sigh of relief. Whether this lasts only a day or two or several weeks, I have no idea. I would suggest that any stability should be used as an exit!

Speaking of “exits”, if I were the Chinese or other large holders of Treasuries, I would be using the current strength as my exit plan. Capital poured into Treasuries in a safe haven bid, I would use these bids and hit them with everything I had. In fact, I believe we may very soon see the day when the U.S. Treasury market gets hit hard along with stocks and the dollar. This will be your clue the “end” is quite imminent. WATCH TREASURY YIELDS, when they inexplicably begin to rise, understand what they are telling you!

Lastly, this is not about China, it is not a “correction”, it is not because of a “slowdown”. This is the beginning of the Great Credit Unwinding and will take EVERYTHING “credit” with it. Do you understand what “everything credit” actually is?

In today’s world, anything and everything financial (including real estate) is credit. EVERYTHING is now credit! By now I probably should not have to explain what is “not credit”. Simply put, “real physical gold and silver unencumbered”.

You will soon see this as the credibility of central banks will be called into question. The viability of derivatives will be called into question. The solvency of sovereigns (including the U.S. Treasury) will be called into question. The entire global fiat system will be called into question! The conversation may go something like this;

You have been weighed. You have been measured.

And you have absolutely…

Been found wanting!

Welcome to the New World. God save you, if it is right that he should do so.

It has been and is all about “confidence”. Confidence has been the ONLY thing holding the Ponzi scheme together. The PPT allowed confidence a very black and swollen eye today. Nothing “credit” on the planet will stand upon the knockout of confidence!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome  bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Friday’s action closed horribly in the U.S. with the Dow losing 530 for the day. This broke away from the support level of 17,200-17,300 which will now become overhead resistance. Global equity markets around the world are in crash mode as more than a dozen are already down 30-50% while the U.S. has just eclipsed the 10% correction zone. My guess is we will see a very weak opening with one or several rally attempts. An exhaustion bottom can be expected in the first half of the week with nervous strength later in the week. This scenario I believe is our best case.

No matter how the week plays out, the credit bubble has been identified, recognized and “pricked”, the equity markets are only a symptom. Do not be fooled by any strength this coming week, it should be used to raise cash. As September moves in, the September-October timeframe looks like a disaster. What may start out as circuit breakers being hit now, will ultimately be the plugs yanked out over the next couple of months. I believe a market closure is in our near term future.

As for gold and silver, these markets are both REALLY tight if you want the physical metal. If you are trading paper metal …oh well, can’t help you. This is the Great Credit Unwind and as such, currencies of all sorts (including the dollar) will take turns crashing. Watch the various sovereign treasury prices and yields (also CDS credit default swaps) as a clue to which country is experiencing an “attack du jour”.

The most likely US/Fed response will be some sort of QE whether they call it QE4 or not, who knows? The Fed will be forced again into further monetization, any talk of a rate hike from here is a complete joke. The real danger lies in what or how the world responds to another QE. Do they hit the Fed’s bid with full force? If I were a foreigner, I would certainly use the Fed as my “exit door” but this remains to be seen. Should foreign central banks (ie. China) sell into the Fed, game over and market closure could be quite rapid as in same or next day.

This is much speculation on my part as to “timing and how” this might all play out. The fact that credit is now unwinding means there is only one question of importance, “when”. Even this has become of less importance as “SOON” has jumped up as the answer. Gold and silver will be your only lifeboats as they are no one’s liability in a world where everything including the money in your pocket is someone else’s liability. IT’S OVER FOLKS! Please do not get caught up in what is mathematically coming!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

The following link is a very important interview done Friday morning well before the disastrous close.  Please listen and post or forward.  I will have comments posted late Sunday regarding what I expect this Monday and the week to bring.  The Great Credit Unwinding has begun!  There is precious little time for you to prepare and get done what you need to prior to a shutdown of the credit spigot.  Understand this and get cracking or don’t and sleep until you are rudely awakened!

Standing watch,
Bill Holter