Posts Categorized: Bill Holter

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Our dear extended family,

Bill has come out of the successful operation. He wishes to thank all those that sent their best wishes and sincere prayers.

Sincerely,

Jim

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

Kathryn and I are returned from our recent trip, my surgery will be Monday at O:dark early. For the first time in years I went several 24 hour periods staying off the internet and two 48 hour stints …without the slightest withdrawal symptoms. Rest assured your e-mails with comments and questions were all read, but few if any were answered as I needed some down time. Many have sent well wishes and prayers, I appreciate the well wishes and welcome ALL prayers!

Our weekly recording for subscribers will be done over the weekend and posted as will one premium article prior to Monday. Next week’s commentary will depend on the speed of recovery and clarity of thought during the recovery.

The most blatant stupidity while we were away has to be the attempt to erase …and rewrite American history. While they are at it, why not “erase” the value of those pieces of paper with the evil slave owning dead presidents on them? This will happen with or without seditious help. If you cannot see this as a coup attempt, please awaken. One topic for this weekend’s work.

Bill

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

After listening to Jim’s 3 part autobiography, please send your questions regarding Jim’s life experiences to bholter@hotmail.com.  These questions will be this weekend’s topic.  Nothing is off limits …unless Jim decides to take the fifth!

Bill

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

I had to chuckle after getting caught up in the ZeroHedge click bait headline. First we should look at the article itself and then analyze the stupidity prevailing even among large and supposedly “wise” money managers.

As for the article, it was penned by Michael Snyder who has done some very good work in the past as he did with the legwork for this one. The problem(s) I see are that first, the mystery investor did not make a $262 million bet. This is the maximum amount he might be able to make between now and October. The original “investment” is far less than this and would normally be considered the amount of the “bet” if this was the amount they could possibly lose.

But herein lies the problem, the “bet” has literally an unlimited loss potential because in a complete blowout market, this trader is essentially short 262,000 VIX Oct. 25 call contracts. Never mind all the other bells and whistles in this trade, should the market crash and fear run unbridled, the net/net is this uncovered short call position of 262,000 contracts. So, the title is misleading in the first place because the original bet was only a small fraction of $262 million but the potential loss could certainly be in the multiple $billions … not like any lottery ticket I have ever seen or would even touch!

Taking this the extra yard, let’s talk about “what” this or any trader will “win” should they be that fortunate. First, you will notice I wrote “should they be that fortunate”…which means someone else (or collective someone else’s) will be unfortunate enough to be standing atop an equal sized loss. The obvious question is whether they will have the ability to payout on the “lotto ticket”? From a systemic standpoint, I absolutely 100% guarantee in a free market not backstopped by central banks, another 2008 experience cannot be settled. 2008 could not be settled upon and thus the reason the Fed secretly lent out $16 trillion across the globe, settlement HAD TO OCCUR or the jig was up. The number this time around will have to be far larger and probably many multiples.

Now, carrying the question all the way through, traders, investors, money managers etc. who believe they are “hedged” or have safe strategies in place are sadly mistaken. How can I say this broad brush and what makes me so smart? Don’t worry, I have not turned arrogant by any stretch, I can say this by looking at the problem with logic that long ago left our casino markets. You see, the problem is these players for the most part are playing for dollars, euros, yen etc. Even IF they believe they are playing for gold, I assure you they are not because out of the millions of ounces represented to create the current pricing, only a very small fraction and less than one percent of real metal exists and underlies the trades.

Getting to the heart of what I wanted to convey, the bottom line is even if the winners all do get paid (a mathematical certainty they cannot because of defaults), they will be collecting fiat paper chits that will not perform in a credit meltdown. This is not rocket science or voodoo economics, all fiat currencies are “credit based” in the first place so their “value” only functions while credit markets are standing with good faith and confidence. When confidence in central banks and sovereign treasuries does break, so will all fiat currencies. This will appear to be a hyperinflation when in reality it will be the MOTHER OF ALL DEFLATIONS in terms of gold!

To finish, we live in a world where the casinos themselves are broke but still functioning while they can still obtain credit. It will not matter whether you won or lost if you have not left the casino when the lights go out. The only way to truly win is to cash your chips in and fully exit the casino with real money in hand… BEFORE it is widely understood that no matter how many casino chips you have …you still have nothing! The mathematical explanation of this is “zero times anything is still zero”! Please think this article through thoroughly, the games are being played for the wrong winnings…

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Comments welcome bholter@hotmail.com

Posted by & filed under Bill Holter.

A very interesting week so far. The dollar is now down 150 basis points in 2 1/2 days, in the old days it used to take several months to move this much. The “96”level has only two ticks to go before we see a 95 handle. Gold was flash crashed in Sunday’s access market for about $20, this amount has not been fully recovered even with the flimsy dollar action. COMEX open interest actually rose on Monday’s drubbing which is proof positive the seller was not a “long”, conversely they were “shorts to open” …or should I say to affect a lower price. Open interest was very strong with yesterday’s tiny price rise, as I expect another very large increase from today’s session.

The point is this, it is taking more and more “shorted” contracts to contain the price. The mining shares have also been under lockdown, I am sure both legal and “naked” shorts have exploded in order to effect this feat. While the metals complex has been locked down, the dollar is taking a drubbing on world markets. The game of selling “paper metal” works as long as the dollar has respect, it is losing respect rapidly! Building the open interest will only make the delivery default that much uglier. This is not a matter of if, only when…