Posts Categorized: Bill Holter
How often have you heard the phrase “the government will never let it happen”? It almost doesn’t matter what the topic is you are talking about, nothing “bad” can ever really happen…or so it is thought. The reason of course is because we are so many years into “MOPE” (management of perspective economics). No matter what has happened in the past, the media, Wall Street, and the government have constantly spun the narrative to lead the “perspective”. MOPE has been with us for such a long time, it is not surprising the public is conditioned into believing nothing bad will EVER happen.
We could go through the exercise of “how” and even “why” MOPE came about but that might end up being a novel. Rather, I believe there is a core how and why. Put simply, MOPE became a necessity to protect the ability for the U.S. to borrow…AND to issue the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This topic by the way is a chicken or the egg question but really no longer matters as we are in the very late innings of the credit game.
You see, the U.S. has run a budget deficit every year since 1960 which means they had to borrow funds to keep the doors open and the machine running. Foreigners provided for many years to cover the shortfall and also willingly (for the most part) accepted and used dollars for trade. Rather than live within means, the U.S. fell into the trap of borrowing more to pay back past debt with more new debt and not allow living standards to “clear”. Mother nature saw this and began to drain the Treasury of gold in the late 1960’s which led to the U.S. defaulting on Aug.15, 1971…which kicked off the need for MOPE.
Mi amigo Principe’, I call him Sr. Guapo! I bought Principe’ as trail horse to ride while in Costa Rica over 10 years ago. Principe’ is a “P.R.E.” (pura raza Espanol). He is 3/4 Andalusian and 1/4 Costarricense. His naturally graceful gait impressed me and he was well mannered on a 10 mile test ride. Having always wanted a polished horse I luckily came across trainer Roberto Marenco. He and I worked with Principe’ for 18 months until we moved back to Texas and shipped Principe’. Since then, me and Principe’ have both learned and taught much to each other. He is the smartest horse I have ever been around and is eager to understand what is asked of him (always and only in Spanish). We spend 3-5 miles per day, six days a week together. I would not miss this for the sanity he provides me in an insane world!
We are both getting older, “Sr. Guapo” will be 20 this year but still acts and looks like an accomplished 8 year old. His best trait may be the kindness of being “drunk broke”. Should I ever become off balance, he will ride under me instinctively. He has only had a saddle on him twice in the last several years and we both prefer it that way. Please note, the first half the video is a bareback pad with stirrups while the Spanish section is bareback pad only. This was the very first time he had ever seen a drone, riding him without stirrups and a drone in the air was an adrenaline rush! I had to back him into the area the next three days as “the boogeyman” might still have been there…
The picture at the very end is not a photograph, it is a hand painted pastel portrait given me as a birthday present from my wife Kathryn. Her work can be found at www.kathrynholter.com
A special thanks to Craig C. for another great job of filming/editing. I hope you enjoy this as much as I enjoy riding and being with mi amigo Principe’, otherwise known as “Sr. Guapo”!
Markets around the world are convulsing which is definitely different than anything we have seen in over a year. We also know that interest rates are going higher all over the world. In fact, if you look at rates going back to 1981, the downtrend line(s) has been broken and thus a very major change. Generational trades and 37 year trend lines are rare on their own, when they finally break it means something very big has changed and you must do your very best at trying to figure out “what” it is.
Let’s take a look at two charts that might help, one of interbank lending in the U.S. and also at “velocity”. These are both very important and I would suggest they are both connected by something called “trust”. First, interbank lending absolutely collapsed out of nowhere at the end of the year. If you look closely below, interbank lending has dropped back to only $13 billion or the same level it was all the back to pre 1973-74 recession levels!
You can follow along and see how lending amongst banks generally inflated all the way up until 2006-2008 until it crashed. This happened because banks did not “trust” each other. From there, the lending tapered off until the recent nearly zeroing out of interbank lending. I would suggest since 2009, the amount of lending steadily decreased and never increased as banks “knew” other banks did not have strong balance sheets (maybe because they knew the reality of their own balance sheet?). In any case, there can be only two reasons for lending to collapse like is has. Either there is no need for money (credit) OR banks do not trust each other? I would highly suggest it is the latter.
Please watch, post, or forward if you wish.