In The News Today

Posted at 10:04 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

“ECB’s aggressive stimulus was unjustified, inflated property prices and could even sow the seeds of the next crisis.”…ya think? Central bankers have created a monetary nuclear bomb mathematically guaranteed to go off!

ECB’s Old Guard Attack Draghi’s Long-Term Easy Money Policy
October 4, 2019

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Six former euro zone central bankers on Friday criticized the European Central Bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy under the presidency of Mario Draghi, saying it has been unsuccessful and probably aimed at bankrolling indebted governments.

In a two-page document, former ECB board members Juergen Stark and Ottmar Issing, along with former rate setters from Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands, also argued that the ECB’s aggressive stimulus was unjustified, inflated property prices and could even sow the seeds of the next crisis.

Their attack came at a time of discord inside the ECB, where more than a third of policymakers opposed more money printing last month, and reflected the radical overhaul of the once conservative institution’s policies under Draghi.

The memorandum was released to journalists less than a month before Draghi makes way for incoming ECB president Christine Lagarde.

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J. Johnson’s Latest – Silver Prices Stagnated for Today’s Preplanned Attack
October 4, 2019

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,    

      Gold continues to trade higher, but barely this time, with the price at $1,514.20 up 40 cents after reaching $1,516.30 and with the low at $1,510.40. Silver is signaling with a negative price, which took the place of text messages and those well-known bar room discussions, with the trade at $17.635, down 4.1 cents after reaching $17.705 with the low close by at $17.600.  The US Dollar is still over elevated and is trading at 98.435, down 10.5 points and close to the low at 98.410 with the high at 98.600. All of this non activity happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and our Unemployment Report.    

      In Venezuela, Gold is now trading at 15,123.07 Bolivar giving the noble metal a 34.95 Bolivar boost with Silver losing 0.649 Bolivar with its price at 176.130 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold valued at 87,315.33 showing a loss of 43.37 Pesos with Silver at 1,016.98 Pesos, losing 6.67 since yesterday morning’s big gain. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 8,624.50 Lira’s showing us a gain of 23.51 in the overnight with Silver at 100.446 proving the most manipulated metal on the planet lost 0.327 in T-Lira value.    

      October Silver Deliveries shows us a 41-count drop from yesterday’s demands providing us a total of 450 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts waiting for receipts either here or in London and with zero Volume up on the board so far this morning. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is still elevated with the total now (in the early morning) at 213,155 Overnighters proving no one left the field of play but 497 more contracts had to be added in order to keep Silver prices stagnant for today’s preplanned attack at the time of the report.    

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

71% is a mere flesh wound …

September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71%
October 4, 2019

Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year – it’s ugly.

Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley.

This follows a 79% plunge in August.

This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000.

Class 8 orders are often seen as a pulse on the U.S. economy. Morgan Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis wrote in a note that she expects YOY order declines to continue into the year’s end. But Baird analyst David Leiker said he was gaining “increased confidence” that a bottom in declines was likely near – but that’s a story we have heard from ACT Research analysts all year and orders just continue to collapse. 

The blame continues to fall on the trade war.

    “Little has changed since August with respect to the freight market and freight rates, while uncertainties surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers’ psyches,” said Steve Tam, ACT vice president, according to FreightWaves.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Zero bound here we come!

The Fed Will Give the Market What It Wants. Again
October 4, 2019

Jobs Report Still Boring, Fed Still Cutting

Once upon a time, monthly jobs reports were exciting. Nobody knew whether they’d be good or bad. And when they were good they became political footballs, leading Jack Welch to tweet wild conspiracy theories and Herman Cain to call this newsletter writer stupid.

But after 108 straight months of job growth, the thrill is gone. September’s numbers, released today, were as vanilla as most of the 107 months that came before. Headline payroll numbers, which will be revised a million times and so are basically meaningless, weren’t as good as expected. Unemployment was lower than expected. Wage growth — the number that really matters these days — wasn’t great.

I see you nodding off there! Such boring numbers were manna for the stock market, though, which found them not too weak to amplify recession fears and not too strong to put the Fed off raising interest rates again. Traders still seem to believe the Powell Put — an implied guarantee that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will always ride to the stock market’s rescue — is alive and well, writes John Authers. Before the report, in fact, the bond market had priced in at least a quarter-percentage-point rate cut later this month, notes Brian Chappatta. The Fed usually does what the market wants, and today’s numbers would have had to be truly exciting to change that.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Fat chance with the majors.

Gold Supply Heading For Peak Unless Miners Ramp Up Exploration Spending, Resource Consultancy Wood Mackenzie Says
October 4, 2019

Gold, one of the more popular risk-hedging tools in the past two months of global turbulence, may see supply peak if miners do not increase their spending on exploration, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The London-based natural resources consultancy said gold producers have kept their spending on discovering new resources under tight control.

The word of caution on supply would support analysts’ prediction that the gold price will head higher in the next two years, having gained 23 per cent in the past 12 months as investors parked more money in the traditional safe-haven asset.

“While the resurgent gold price has garnered a renewed sense of optimism in the industry, it has also shone a light on a structural issue that has been brewing for some time,” said the consultancy’s analysts in a note last week.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The greatest spin ever done in the equity markets was today where a cruddy jobs report sends people flying into stocks at higher prices!

Hiring Slowed In September As Unemployment Rate Fell To A 50-Year Low
October 4, 2019

The cavalcade of payroll gains continued for the 108th month in September, pushing down the jobless rate to a half-century low and countering anxieties that had been piqued by slowing global growth, declining factory orders and a jittery stock market.

Employers kept hiring at a steady if unremarkable pace, adding 136,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported on Friday. And the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent.

The report capped a week of otherwise disappointing economic news. Manufacturing activity in the United States fell for the second month in a row, while the World Trade Organization predicted that the growth in global trade would slacken significantly. A key measure of activity in the services sector — which accounts for two-thirds of the country’s output — also cooled.

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