J. Johnson’s Latest – The World Seems To Be On The Verge Of Change
October 1, 2019
Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,
October 1st greets us with a positive price for the precious metals with Gold trading at $1,473.90, up $1 after reaching up to $1,480.90 with the low at $1,465.00. Silver is leading the trade at $17.16, up 16.2 cents and close to its high of $17.185 with the low at $16.940. The currency that’s keeping it all together is the US Dollar, with its value pegged at 99.10, up 7.9 points after reaching up to 99.235 with the low that is too high at 99.030. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.
In Venezuela Gold is now priced at 14,720.58 Bolivar, still losing value as their currency strengthens with Silver priced at 171.386 Bolivar showing a reduction of 0.699 in value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 84,878.04 showing a 521.40 Peso reduction with Silver at 988.124, proving a gain of 0.462 in A-Peso value. The Turkish Lira now prices Gold at 8,382.94 shaving off 28.28 T-Lira with Silver at 97.6052 gaining 0.3333 Lira’s.
October Silver Deliveries now show the demand count at 1,064 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts proving a reduction of 109 obligations during yesterday’s trade and with a Volume of 2 up on the board so far this morning with a trading range between $16.96 and $16.925 with the last trade the high so far. Silver’s Total Open Interest drives the direction with the count now at 213,367 Overnighters showing a reduction of 5,465 from yesterday’s early morning count which may be proving some of the paper longs exiting but with the way things are these days who really knows?
Bill Holter’s Commentary
The bottom line is this, no paper currency can or will survive the fire of the coming defaults. The dollar may be the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket today but the entire basket will catch fire. It is the dollar system (post 1971) itself that allowed the over use of debt in all currencies. As an aside, the “confessions of an economic hitman” suggests over levering foreign central banks and treasuries has been a plan all along? .56 on the USDX, par, or even 120 will be a moot point when all is said and done because anything times zero is still zero…
The US Dollar Beast
October 1, 2019
John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) explains very well how to predict the winner of a beauty contest successfully. You must, he noted, think along the following lines: “(…) each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors (…). It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of use of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have to reach the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”1
This is a perspective that those may wish to take into consideration who think the US dollar is about to collapse, would be the ugliest of all currencies. Latest data from the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) speaks a rather different language. In its 2019 Triennial Survey,2 the BIS informs us that daily trading in foreign exchange markets had reached 6.6 trillion US dollar per day in April 2019 – compared to 5.1 trillion US dollar three years earlier – and that the US dollar remained the single-most important currency in the FX markets, being on one side of 88% of all the trades. For comparison: the euro was on one side of 32% of all trades, the Japanese yen of 17%, and the Chinese renminbi of just 4.3%.