In The News Today

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Barbarous relic?

Gold vs Berkshire Hathaway

Returns over Last 20 Years… Berkshire Hathaway: +387% Gold: +488% (see below).

Gold Is Outperforming Berkshire Hathaway Over The Last 20 Years











Bill Holter’s Commentary

100% insanity! Make sure you read the last paragraph because it is correct.

Denmark’s 3rd Largest Bank Is Now Paying People To Take Out A Mortgage
August 11, 2019

Back in 2016, when the first negative interest rate bonds first emerged, we offered readersa glimpse of the NIRP future:

After an intense pow-wow between the administration, Congressional leaders and the Federal Reserve, the Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP) is born. The program is simple. Homeowners will be paid to borrow. The Federal Reserve declares that the NMRP is a brilliant extension of NIRP (negative interest rate policy), because it will benefit everyone, not just the 1%ers.

Here’s how it works: No downpayment needed. 100% financing.

No payments needed. This is the reverse of the negative amortization loans during the subprime era. In other words, it is a negative negative amortization, or neg-neg-am loan. The loan balance will decrease instead of increase.

No need for mortgage insurance since, with no payments, there can be no defaults.

No qualifying needed, hence removing the entire cumbersome loan application process.

Your interest cost will be -$1,000 per year. In other words, your loan balance will be $99,000, if you make no payments at all. Using a commonly accepted 30 year term, the loan balance at the end of 30 years would be around $50,000, all without the borrower having to pay a dime in mortgage expense.

Well for Denmark, the future is now, because three years later and with over $15 trillion in negative-yielding debt around the world, Denmark’s third largest bank is now offering borrowers mortgages at a negative interest rate, effectively paying its customers to borrow money for a house purchase.

Jyske Bank said this week that customers would now be able to take out a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage with an interest rate of -0.5%, meaning customers will pay back less than the amount they borrowed, or precisely what we said would happen in our 2016 preview of the dystopian future.


Bill Holter’s Commentary

And just where do you believe capital will end up when fleeing negative yields?

Investors Ponder Negative Bond Yields In The U.S.
August 11, 2019

A steep slide in U.S. government-bond yields last week wrong-footed investors and left some pondering what was once unthinkable: whether interest rates in America could one day turn negative.

Historically, people who lent money out got more money back later, a way to compensate for inflation, for the risk of not being repaid and for forgoing other investments.


J. Johnson’s Latest – Did The Silver Shorts Blink?
August 12, 2019

 Good Monday Morning Folks,   
      After a weekend of rest Gold continues to ink out a higher value with the trade at $1,517.70, up $9.20 and close to the high at $1,519.90 with the low below the Maginot line at $1,498.60. Silver is following with the trade at $16.975, up 4.4 cents with the high so far at $17.005 and the low at $16.80. The US Dollar, which will eventually be forced lower, is still holding onto its value with the trade at 97.35, up 2.8 points after reaching up to 97.55 with the low real close at 97.29. All of this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      Our emerging markets currency watch shows Gold still gaining with Silver still dragging its feet, barely that is. Venezuela’s Bolivar has Gold priced at 15,158.03 proving a gain of 22.97 with Silver now priced at 169.538 showing a loss of .449 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso has Gold valued at 68,735.34 showing a gain of 279.54 A-Peso’s with Silver at 768.709 losing 0.158 A-Peso’s over the weekend. Turkey’s Lira has Gold priced at 8,421.03 giving their people a gain of 88.99 in T-Lira value with Silver now at 94.1701 proving a slight gain of 0.607 T-Lira.  

      The August Silver’s Delivery count continues to weaken with the demands now at 190 fully paid for receipts proving a drop in count of 66 requests, delivered either here or in London, and with a Volume of 7 up on the board so far this morning with an added feature of a trading range of $16.875 and $16.860 with the low being the last price traded. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is now at 238,794 Overnighters giving us a possible Silver Shorts Blink in the staring contest of a lifetime proving a drop of 4,997 Obligations since Friday morning’s early count. Hopefully, the Silver Shorts will blink some more, a lot more.  


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Burgers are banned at University of London which is not half as idiotic as Bolsonaro of Brazil suggesting “less pooping” as a way to save the planet! Maybe someone should address chemtrails as a way to save the planet?…even if you ignorantly disavow them, something is definitely coming out of the “asses” of planes that does not resemble the contrails we saw as children. As a side note to President Bolsonaro, what should “regular people” who poop twice a day do???

University Bans Burgers To Help Save The Planet
August 12, 2019

Beef burgers have been banned by a university as part of efforts to tackle the climate emergency.

Goldsmiths, University of London said it is to remove all beef products from sale from next month as the institution attempts to become carbon neutral by 2025.

Students will also face a 10p levy on bottles of water and single-use plastic cups when the academic year starts to discourage use of the products.

The college’s new Warden, Professor Frances Corner, said staff and students “care passionately about the future of our environment” and that “declaring a climate emergency cannot be empty words”.


Brazilian President Suggests Less Pooping To Help Save Environment
August 11, 2019

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Friday suggested eating less food, and therefore, defecating less, as an answer to some of the world’s problems.

Bolsonaro — who has come under fire in recent weeks after data showed increased deforestation of the Amazon rainforest — offered the response to a reporter who questioned if it was possible to boost the economy, feed those who are hungry and save the environment at the same time. It wasn’t clear if Bolsonaro was being sarcastic.

“It’s enough to eat a little less. You talk about environmental pollution. It’s enough to poop every other day,” Bolsonaro said, according to AFP. “That will be better for the whole world.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary


3 Charts Confirming The Global Economy Is Already In Recession
August 12, 2019

Over the weekend, it finally dawned on Goldman that a protracted trade war – which it not really a trade but a defining clash of the world’s two most advanced superpowers – is bad for the US economy. Yes, the bank which for the longest time was expecting 4 rate hikes this year and for the US-China “trade war” to magically end with an amicable handshake and a hug some time in the next few months, and which only changed its forecast to a rate cut after Powell said he would engage in “mid-cycle easing”, has now once again flip-flopped and in a report published on Saturday warned that it now expects a “bigger hit from the trade war” for the US economy.

The policy uncertainty effect may lead firms to lower capex spending as they wait for uncertainty to resolve. Relatedly, the business sentiment effect of increased pessimism about the outlook from trade war news may lead firms to invest, hire, or produce less. Using industry-level data, we find that greater exposure to sales to China has been associated with slower capex growth as the trade war has intensified. We estimate a total uncertainty and sentiment drag on GDP of 0.1-0.2%.

Overall, we have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war. In our baseline policy scenario, we now estimate a peak cumulative drag on the level of GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. The drivers of this modest change are that we now include an estimate of the sentiment and uncertainty effects and that financial markets have responded notably to recent trade news. Based on our estimates, we have taken down our Q4 growth forecast by 0.2pp to 1.8% (qoq ar).