In The News Today

Posted at 9:23 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The lastest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

– INITIAL FIRST-QUARTER 2019 GDP ESTIMATE WAS NOT CREDIBLE
– Downturn Has Just Begun; Recession Remains in Play, With FOMC-Generated Financial Stresses Still Diminishing Consumer Activity
– Consumer Controls 72% of GDP, but Generated Only 22% of GDP Growth
– Advance First-Quarter Real GDP Gain of 3.17% Topped Consensus Forecasts, Strengthened Against 2.17% in the Fourth-Quarter, Yet the Numbers Were of Unusually Poor Quality
– Bureau of Economic Analysis Is Hamstrung by Data-Quality Issues Tied to Underlying Government Shutdown Reporting Disruptions and Distortions
– Only Two Months of the First-Quarter Trade Deficit Were Available, Where Initial Quarterly GDP Estimates Usually Are Based on Three Months
– That Two-Month Quarterly Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply, Signaling a Great Recession Style Collapse in Personal Consumption; That Deficit Guess Was the Largest Single Positive Contribution to First-Quarter GDP Growth
– Positive Impact of the Deficit Narrowing Should Have Been Offset by an Even Greater Decline in Goods Consumption, Which Dropped Sharply, But Not Enough
– Three Months of Likely Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Follow, Into the July 26th GDP Benchmarking
– Broad Money Supply Velocity Slowed in First-Quarter 2019, Suggestive of a Slowing Economy

“Bullet Edition No. 7”
www.shadowstats.com