In The News Today

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Very interesting!

Federal Regulator: Wall Street Stock Trading Plunged 88.6 Percent in Q4
March 24, 2019

Pam Martens

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal regulator of national banks, which includes the largest banks on Wall Street, quietly issued its quarterly report on trading in cash instruments and derivatives on Friday. The report contained a shocker: stock (equity) trading had plunged 88.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 versus the fourth quarter of 2017 on a consolidated basis at the bank holding companies, which includes the results of their commercial and investment banks. Equally stunning, stock trading was down an even more staggering 91.7 percent from the third quarter of 2018. (See chart above from the report.)

This bombshell statistic is something that we have not heard a peep about from either the Wall Street banks on their earnings calls or the business media.

In fact, Wall Street banks have been telling business media that their trading pain in the fourth quarter came from fixed income (bond) trading. The media reports now read like something from Alice in Wonderland when compared to the OCC report.

Reuters reported on February 25, 2019 that while Wall Street banks overall did better than their European counterparts “The biggest losers, however, were the divisions that trade fixed income, currencies and commodities…However, equity trading picked up, particularly for Wall Street banks, where revenue rose 10 percent.” That statement contrasts with this statement in the OCC report: “The quarter-over-quarter decrease in trading revenue was across all instrument categories with the largest decrease due to equity trading.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

J.Johnson’s Latest.

It’s cheaper to borrow next year than right now!
March 25, 2019

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,   

      Gold gives us an early morning pre-sunrise smile with the trade up $5.10 at $1,317.40 and close to the high of $1,318.90 with a low at $1,310.60. Silver is equally as strong with its price now at $15.53 up 12.3 cents and right beside its high of $15.54 with the low at $15.385. This week’s currency activity is still all about British and American politics with the US Dollar now at 96.12, down 3.1 points after reaching a height of 96.19 before heading lower with the low to beat at 95.99. Of course all of this was done way before 5 am pst and before the Comex Openings tranquilizing dart hits our collective asses once again. Venezuela’s current Gold price is now at 13,157.53 Bolivar gaining 54.93 over the weekend with Silver’s price now at 155.106 gaining .749 Bolivar.    

      March Silver Deliveries seemed to have frozen on Friday with today’s early morning count being the same as Friday’s, 45 contracts waiting for receipts, with zero Volume up on the board. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is showing a very slight drop in OI with the count losing only 140 overnighters so far bringing the total to 190,915 obligations.   

      Another emerging market currency took a stab at going lower with the nation of Turkey now blaming JP Morgan for the Lira’s Worst Slide Since the 2018 Crash sending Gold back up to its earlier heights under the Lira, proving the emerging markets failing currencies are gaining momentum as nation after nation turns itself upside down in uncontrollable debt against its natural resources and those with the digital print controls. What else is new?   


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Can a snake eat its own tail?

Over $10 Trillion In Debt Now Has A Negative Yield
March 25, 2019

NIRP is back.

On Friday, when Germany reported disastrous mfg and service PMI prints, the 10Y German Bund finally threw in the towel, with the yield sliding back under zero for the first time in three years. When that happened, and when the 3M-10Y yield curve inverted in the US right around that time, just over $400 billion in global debt changed the sign on its yield from positive to negative.

As a result, the total notional of global negative yielding debt soared on Friday, rising above $10 trillion for the first time Since September 2017, and which according to Bloomberg has intensified “the conundrum for investors hungry for returns while fretting the brewing economic slowdown.”