In The News Today

Posted at 3:37 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

The bulls will tell you it is different this time …

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

– FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signals Onset of a New Recession, as Nominal Monetary Base Drops to a Five-Year Low
– Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
– Intensifying Consumer-Liquidity Squeeze Reflected in Downside Revisions to Previously Estimated Auto Sales, Housing and Third-Quarter GDP
– Third-Quarter 2018 Final Sales (GDP Net of an Increasing Inventory Buildup) Slowed to a Revised 1.03% (Initially 1.43%) from a Second-Quarter 5.33%
– Annual Growth in November Freight Activity Plunged to a Two-Year Low
– November 2018 Residential Construction and Sales Continued in Deepening Downtrends, Well Shy of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Highs
– November Manufacturing in Record 131st Straight Month of Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 4.7% (-4.7%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak; Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
– 2008 Banking-System Insolvency Arose Under the Watchful Eye of the Banking-System-Owned Federal Reserve
– Subsequent FOMC Actions in the Last Decade Centered on Propping the Banks, Not on Restoring a Healthy Economy
– Stock Market Turmoil Has Begun to Respond to the Intensifying Effects of Financial-System Distortions and Instabilities

“No. 981: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Residential Construction, GDP and Stocks”

Bill Holter’s Commentary

I guess the question is, how do you sell if there is no liquidity? Long popcorn is probably advised!

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Only this time the central banks and sovereign treasuries also have impaired balance sheets…

Two-Year Yield Dips Below Key Fed Rate For First Time Since 2008
January 3, 2018

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. two-year Treasury note yield US2YT=RR dropped below 2.4 percent on Thursday afternoon, reaching parity with the federal funds effective rate for the first time since 2008.

The fed funds effective rate, which was 2.4 percent on Thursday, moves within the Federal Reserve’s key policy range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent. The market move suggests investors believe the U.S. central bank will not be able to continue to tighten monetary policy as its forecast suggests, after having lifted benchmark interest rates four times in 2018.

“This is a big deal,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“The market is effectively saying that at some point in the next 24 months, the Fed is going to have to not only stop hiking, but actively start easing.”