Jim’s Mailbox

Posted at 4:18 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Notes From Saturday’s Discussion For Subscribers:



















The PTT painting the tape for the last couple of days in December has not helped. Black Rock was down 29%, Greenlight 34% the end of MOPE has arrived.


Einhorn’s Greenlight Extends Decline to 34% in Worst Year
December 31, 2018

David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.

The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 percent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.

Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 percent in 2015.




This was discussed on a Saturday call.


Did the U.S. Military Just Admit Victory in Afghanistan Is Impossible?
December 28, 2018

In the week before President Donald Trump’s reported decision to abruptly withdraw 7,000 U.S. service members from Afghanistan, the top U.S. commander there all but admitted that the 17-year-old war there will not end with a military victory for the Pentagon.

“This fight will go until a political settlement,” Army Gen. Scott Miller, the commander of U.S. Forces-Afghanistan and the Resolute Support mission there, told CNN when asked whether the Afghan campaign against the Taliban had reached a stalemate. “These are two sides that are fighting against one another, and neither one of them will achieve a military victory at this stage.”

In the same interview, U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan John Bass concurred with Miller’s assessment, cautioning that U.S. and Afghan officials will face a complicated diplomatic situation given the Talian’s aggressive rejection of the current administration in Kabul.




You and Bill had a mid-week special talk, in early February, when you warned listeners the market top was in. Let’s hope they listened.


“They Said It Could Never Happen Again?” – Global Stocks Suffer Worst Year In A Decade
December 31, 2018

The world’s central banks’ safety harness finally gave way and one by one the world’s markets started to plunge.

Global stock markets lost almost $12 trillion in 2018 – the largest market cap loss since 2008 (and second largest in history)…




A $6 million bribe would needlessly embarrass is an understatement. We need a return to the rule of law.

El Chapo Trial Has Yet to Reveal Mexico’s Dark Secrets of Narco-Corruption
November 29, 2018

For a moment, the trial of Joaquín Guzmán Loera, the Mexican drug lord known as El Chapo, seemed like it might turn into a kind of truth-and-reconciliation commission that would reveal, not only the details about the defendant’s life of crime, but also secrets about narco-corruption in Mexico.

But after a flurry of prosecution filings and rulings by the judge in the first three weeks, it now appears unlikely the trial will become a sweeping exposé on bribery. The jury has heard plenty so far about payoffs to the Mexican police and politicians, but there is much they have not heard — and probably never will.

Setting limits on evidence at criminal trials is common in order to focus on specific charges against specific individuals. But the limits placed on the evidence in this case seem to counter a deep desire in Mexico for a public airing of the sins of its law-enforcement and political establishments in a longstanding drug war.