Jim’s Mailbox

Posted at 3:17 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Deep Bow of Respect!

JB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim,

As we said on Saturday, the whole system is based on bullshit.

Dave

“Everything Is Fake”: Ex-Reddit CEO Confirms Internet Traffic Metrics Are Bullshit
December 28, 2018

“It’s all true: Everything is fake,” tweeted Former Reddit CEO Ellen Pao regarding a Wednesday New York Magazine article which reveals that internet traffic metrics from some of the largest tech companies are overstated or fabricated. In other words; they’re bullshit.

Pao was responding to a tweet by the Washington Post’s Aram Zucker-Schariff, quoting the following segment of the article:

Take something as seemingly simple as how we measure web traffic. Metrics should be the most real thing on the internet: They are countable, trackable, and verifiable, and their existence undergirds the advertising business that drives our biggest social and search platforms. Yet not even Facebook, the world’s greatest data–gathering organization, seems able to produce genuine figures. In October, small advertisers filed suit against the social-media giant, accusing it of covering up, for a year, its significant overstatements of the time users spent watching videos on the platform (by 60 to 80 percent, Facebook says; by 150 to 900 percent, the plaintiffs say). According to an exhaustive list at MarketingLand, over the past two years Facebook has admitted to misreporting the reach of posts on Facebook Pages (in two different ways), the rate at which viewers complete ad videos, the average time spent reading its “Instant Articles,” the amount of referral traffic from Facebook to external websites, the number of views that videos received via Facebook’s mobile site, and the number of video views in Instant Articles.

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Bill,

The reader who wrote in and asked you if you thought the bear market was over, should read this article for insight.

Dave

The Depression of 2019-2021?
December 28, 2018

he profound question which transcends all this day-to-day market drama over the holidays is the nature of the economic slowdown now occurring globally. This slowdown can be seen both inside and outside the US. In reviewing the laboratory of history — especially those experiments featuring severe asset inflation, unaccompanied by high official estimates of consumer price inflation — three possible “echoes” deserve attention in coming weeks and months. (History echoes rather than repeats!)

Will We Learn from History — And What Will Soon Be History?

The behavioral finance theorists tell us that which echo sounds and which outcome occurs is more obvious in hindsight than to anyone in real time. As Daniel Kahneman writes (in Thinking Fast and Slow):

The core of hindsight bias is that we believe we understand the past, which implies the future should also be knowable; but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do – compelling narratives foster an illusion of inevitability; but no such story can include the myriad of events that would have caused a different outcome .

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J. Johnson regarding Kitco’s major faux pax last night. I received so many e-mails (and many from people who have never e-mailed me before) regarding gold’s “$190 drop”, I could not respond to all of them!

Main Stream News Services And Kitco Quotes Get Punked
December 31, 2018

 Good Last Day of the Year Everybody!    

      Gold is giving us a smile this early morning after almost everybody that uses Kitco got a heart attack last night with their inabilities to immediately correct the pricing error which makes one wonder why their quotes were off for so long, with Gold now at $1,285.40, up $2.40 with a low at $1,279.70 (not $1,190 as was quoted) with the high so far at $1,286.50. Silver is up as well with the trade at $15.53, up another 9.4 cents with the high to beat $15.575 with a low at $15.39. The support for the US Dollar continues with its trade at 95.815 after dipping down to 95.685 before London came in, with the high at 96.07. All this was done some time way before 5 am pst. Under the Venezuelan Bolivar Gold is continuing to gain value with the price now at 12,837.93 Bolivar gaining another 46.94 over the past 48 hours with Silver gaining another 15.48 trading at 155.106 Bolivar (a $15 gain under the US Dollar is $75,000 per contract).     

      The January deliveries are moving forward with the count now at 1,021 demands for physical losing 8 from Fridays count with a volume of 1 so far on the board this morning. Silvers overall demands show an Open Interest count at 173,458 obligations proving only 66 Overnighters leaving the trade on a 12.5 cent gain, nice!

        We may have found the reason for the lack of news over the past week or so with most of the main stream media being shuttered with a virus over the weekend, supposedly by foreigners and I can hardly wait for Russia to be blamed again as the comedy continues. More news about the news seems to be exasperating the issues even more so as Der Spiegel news service is forced to suspend their “editor in chief” and “chief editor” for doing what the American Media has been getting away with for way too long now (except for Acosta). Can this viral shutdown be a heads up for those that create the news and not report the real? Probably not, but I can still wish it!   

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Dismal Dave from down under with some historical quotes.  I would add, “stay off the roads tonight as it is the one night of the year for amateurs only, professionals always stay home!

Bill

‘Sometimes, when I reflect on all the beer I drink, I feel ashamed. Then I look into the glass and think about the workers in the brewery and all of their hopes and dreams. If I did not drink this beer, they might be out of work and their dreams would be shattered. I think, it is better to drink this beer and let their dreams come true, than be selfish and worry about my liver.’ Babe Ruth. (1895-1948).

‘When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading.’ Paul Horning. (1935-    )

‘24 hours in a day and 24 beers in a case.  Coincidence?  I think not!’ H. L. Mencken. (1880-1956).

‘When we drink, we get drunk. When we get drunk, we fall asleep. When we fall asleep, we commit no sin When we commit no sin, we go to heaven. So, let’s all get drunk and go to heaven.’ George Bernard Shaw. (1856-1950).

‘Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.’ Benjamin Franklin. (1706-1790).

‘Without question, the greatest invention in the history of mankind is beer. Oh, I grant you that the wheel was also a fine invention, but the wheel does not go nearly as well with pizza.’ Dave Barry. (1947-    ).

‘Beer: Helping ugly people have sex since 3000 B.C.’ W. C. Fields. (1880-1946).

‘Remember ‘I’ before ‘E,’ except in Budweiser.’ Professor Irwin Corey. (1914-    ).

‘To some it is a six-pack. To me, it is a Support Group. Salvation in a can.’ Leo Durocher. (1905-1991).

‘Well, ya see, Normy, it’s like this .. A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo, and when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. 

‘This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members. 

‘In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. 

‘Excessive intake of alcohol, as we know, kills brain cells, but, naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. 

‘In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. 

‘That’s why you always feel smarter after a few beers!

Cheers, a TV Sitcom; Cliff Clavin to his buddy, Norm Peterson.

‘He was a wise man who invented beer.’ (428BC-    ).

‘I have taken more from alcohol, than alcohol has ever taken from me.’ Winston Churchill. (1874-1965).